Top 5 Red Sox Pitching Prospects
Finally, the last chapter in our offseason prospect series is here. This was a “Chinese Democracy” moment for me, as there was a relatively long interval between this installment and the last. In a way, it’s a good thing that I waited this long to rank the pitchers, since I’ll now be able to rank our newest Japanese import (as best as I am able given the information available to us).
After watching Clay Buchholz defile the Red Sox uniform with his 6.75 ERA last summer, it is clear that pitching prospects are the very definition of high-risk securities. Surely, there is still hope for Clay to reach his lofty potential, but who would have predicted his abysmal 2008 campaign after he electrified Fenway Park with a no-hitter in his first career start in 2007? After the promotions of Buchholz and Justin Masterson, the crop of Boston pitching prospects isn’t as eye-popping as it once was. While there aren’t any untouchable blue-chippers in this list, there are some interesting guys (a couple of whom could help the big league team at some point next season).
1) Michael Bowden (RHP)
Age: 21
2008 Level: AAA
Since the Sox drafted this guy out of an Illinois high school in 2005, he’s excelled in every league he’s been placed. While the scouts and other analysts have always been cautious with Bowden’s projections, the numbers cannot be denied. At the age of 21, Bowden was one of the most impressive pitchers in the minor leagues last season, throwing a combined 144.1 innings of 2.62 ERA ball between AA and AAA. Most impressively, Michael only walked 29 hitters and yielded only 10 home runs in those innings.
He doesn’t have Buchholz’s high 90’s heat, and he doesn’t Masterson’s sinker or slider. What he does have is impeccable command of three pitches, and he’s used them to mow down minor league competition for the past 3 years. I’ll take the scouts’ words at face value and concede that he may not have ace potential, but damn if the numbers don’t say otherwise.
2) Daniel Bard (RHP)
Age: 23
2008 Level: AA
Perhaps the exact opposite of Bowden. While the guy described above goes about his business like a heart surgeon, Daniel Bard douses his opponents with pure napalm, leaving nothing but smoldering dirt where the batter’s box used to be. Bard struggled mightily as a starter in 2007 before experiencing a 2008 renaissance as a relief pitcher for the Portland Sea Dogs. He can surpass 100 MPH with his fastball, and features a slider and a changeup to supplement it. Bard obliterated hitters with a 12.4 K/9 last year, and his control was greatly improved (but still needs refinement). He could help in the Boston bullpen next season.
3) Nick Hagadone (LHP)
Age: 22
2008 Level: Low A
An odd case. Hagadone threw 10 innings in Low A last season before tearing his UCL (elbow ligament) and undergoing “Tommy John” surgery. TJ surgery is a bit like space travel; it’s much safer now than it was 20 years ago. According to the most recent news, Hagadone is progressing nicely and should be throwing this spring. He’s a big lefty with a mid/high 90’s fastball and a plus slider, which is why he’s getting so much love from Baseball America and the like. 2009 will be a key season in his development.
4) Junichi Tazawa (RHP)
Age: 22
2008 Level: N/A (Japanese Industrial League)
When Tazawa’s name first began to appear in American newspapers, he was reported to feature a 97 MPH fastball. Although those reports were bullshit, scouts have confirmed that he has command of a fastball in the low 90’s, a forkball, a curve, and a slider. Essentially, he’s much more comparable to Michael Bowden than he is Daisuke Matsuzaka. He’s not MLB ready and will likely begin his American career in Portland, Maine.
5) Bryan Price (RHP)
Age: 22
2008 Level: Short Season A
Drafted out of Rice University, Price has a mid-to-high 90’s fastball and a plus slider. Price appears to be a candidate to be groomed for the bullpen, although he is still a starter for now (Soxprospects.com expects him to be in the Salem rotation next season).
Reviewing our prospect rankings for all positions, our 2009 pre-season All-Prospect Team would look a little something like this:
C – Dusty Brown
1B – Lars Anderson
2B – Chih-Hsien Chiang
3B – Michael Almanzar
SS – Argenis Diaz
LF – Josh Reddick
CF – Che-Hsuan Lin
RF – Ryan Kalish
SP – Michael Bowden
RP – Daniel Bard
So you don’t consider Buchholz a prospect at all? Or was this list just for players that don’t have a lot of MLB time?
While he still has a ton of potential, he’s not rookie eligible (the threshold is 50 MLB innings), which is the parameter I use for “prospects”. If Masterson and Buchholz were still eligible, they’d be #1 and #2 on this list, respectively.
That’s what I thought.