In the wake of the nuclear bomb dropped by New York last week, the Red Sox countered by firing a bottle rocket of their own, singing pitcher Brad Penny to a $5 million dollar deal (with another $3 million in possible incentives).

I imagine the reaction from most folks after looking up this guy’s 2008 numbers on Baseball Reference was an immediate salvo of projectile vomit.  I can’t really fault them for that; Penny was absolutely terrible last season.  However, like always, some context is needed with the numbers if we are to glean the full picture.  Brad was battling serious shoulder problems last season, and these injuries were likely the primary reason for his 95 innings of batting practice.

On a positive note: Penny’s line drive % was the roughly same in 2007 as it was in 2008.  In 2007 (when Penny was one of the best pitchers in the league), he had allowed line drives to 20.4% of the hitters he faced.  Last season, that number was 20.3%.  What really hurt Brad was a decline in his K rate to a paltry 4.6 batters per game.  However, if this can be attributed to his shoulder issues, there’s a chance it can be turned around in 2009.

Pitching coach John Farrell had mild success with his last reclamation project: Bartolo Colon.  Now, Bartolo had some other irreparable problems (both physical and mental) and hurt himself by unwisely swinging at a pitch during an interleague game, but he was surprisingly effective in his outings for both Boston and Pawtucket, showing a staggering improvement from his lost 2007 season.  With Penny, Farrell has a guy with a similar set of baggage, although not as severe as in the case of Colon: a pitcher on the heavier side with alleged work ethic issues, but a talented arm with good command when healthy.  A strong 2009 season for Penny would add yet another feather to the cap of a coach who appears to be on the fast track for a managerial/GM job in the near future (and it will be a sad day when that finally happens).

For what it’s worth, both Bill James and Marcel have some optimistic 2009 projections for Penny (though both are understandably light in the innings department):

James: 130 innings, 90 Ks, 42 BBs, 3.92 ERA
Marcel: 127 innings, 87 Ks, 48 BBs, 4.25 ERA

I’d be happy with 180 innings and an ERA around 4.50.

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