Comments Off

By Jimmy, 1/30/2009 6:15 pm

Reports are indicating that the Red Sox have reached an agreement with Jason Varitek.  Same deal as stated earlier ($5 million in 2009, a mutual option for 2010).

Well, I’m not going to beat a dead horse.  He’s back, and we can only hope that Terry Francona utilizes him in the most productive way possible (against LHP only).  I do have an idea as to how the Sox can make all of this work.  It’s a move that will take some balls on the part of the front office, and I’ll explain later.

I’m your captain, I’m your captain,
Though I’m feeling mighty sick.
Everybody, listen to me,
And return me, my ship.

- Grand Funk Railroad

Comments Off

By Jimmy,

The team-imposed deadline on Jason Varitek’s contract decision is approaching.  Well, technically the deadline went by about a half hour ago, but according to Tony Mazz the Sox might allow Varitek to stretch the deadline to 8:30 Pacific Time (apparently Scott Boras’ lair is on the west coast).

So, in two or three hours we might have an answer as to whether one of the best catchers in franchise history will return for one last stint under a setting sun, or move on to something else.

Either way this goes, it will be bittersweet for me. On one hand, I believe that the 2009 team will likely be better without Jason Varitek.  However…

As a Red Sox fan who attended the majority of my Fenway games in the period between 1998-2004, Varitek has been a constant manifestation of toughness and intensity.  I know we like to dismiss a lot of what’s said about his intangible qualities in light of his declining offensive abilities, but the guy had something.  You’d have to be blind to not acknowledge that.  Somehow, some way, Varitek commanded respect from just about everyone who crossed paths with him in the game.  Hence all the gushing by pitchers, coaches, opposing players, and media.  There’s a lot of smoke there, too much smoke for there to be no fire.  We can’t quantify it, so we dismiss it.  But it’s there, just like the air you breathe and the gravity that keeps you from floating into the vacuum of space.

If today turns out to be the day the Boston Red Sox part ways with Jason Varitek, there won’t be a lot of joy here.  At certain points, the game of baseball becomes sentimental.  Otherwise, why bother watching?

Comments (5)

By Jimmy, 1/29/2009 4:38 pm

First baseman and legendary nice guy Sean Casey recently announced his retirement, hanging up his cleats and transitioning to a career in television, where his personality will receive much more exposure.

I’m sure you’ve heard of Casey’s exploits before, and I probably don’t need to rehash them here.  But I will anyway:

• Casey volunteers at soup kitchens in Lawrence (for those of you unfamiliar with the sociology of Massachusetts, the city of Lawrence is the equivalent of “Farmington” in the FX drama The Shield).
• Casey removes cancer cells from children, and weaves them into a microfiber polymer used for manufacturing clothing for the refugees of Myanmar.
• Casey preaches the Pompituce of Love.
• Casey charters a boat in the offseason, which he uses to chase down pirates off the Somali coast.  However, the guns aboard his Casey’s boat are actually called “Cannons of Understanding” which shoot not bullets, but rather food and supplies to the impoverished pirates.
• Etcetera.

Now, let me preface this by saying that I worship Sean Casey and follow His teachings, just like every other red blooded American.  However, let’s face facts, the guy should not have been anywhere near the team’s flight to Tampa International Airport last October.  It was a mindbogglingly terrible move to place Casey on the ALCS roster, considering a) Mike Lowell was injured and there was a dire need for a corner infielder who could actually play, b) even when Casey was able to drag his bloated corpse to the plate towards the end of the season, he was heinous (.233/.300/.247 in the second half), and c) there were two playoff eligible 1B/OF types on the AAA roster who would both have been an instant improvement over either Casey or Mark Kotsay.

The only imaginable reason for Casey being included on the roster was for his intangibles/veteran presence/niceness/leprosy healing.  With Casey occupying a bench slot, there was no room for someone like Jeff Bailey and Chris Carter, and thus we were stuck with Mark Kotsay receiving the majority of the time at 1B.  Mark Kotsay, a guy who had played 2% of his career at first base, a guy who wouldn’t know plate discipline if he gave birth to it, a guy whose second half offensive numbers were eerily like Casey’s (i.e. embarrassingly shitty: .226/.286/.345).

Predictably, Casey and Kotsay combined to hit .219 with zero walks over 32 plate appearances against the Rays in the ALCS.  Red Sox lose in 7.  No repeat.  No dynasty.

We will never know how the team would have fared with Jeff Bailey or Chris Carter playing first base for the Sox.  Maybe they still would have lost.  Or maybe not.  Let it be said that this is one rare instance where good chemistry and clubhouse karma actually hurt a team.  Just something to ponder while watching the Varitek situation.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 1/27/2009 10:10 am

The Red Sox now have an official offer on the table for catcher Jason Varitek, he of the supreme leadership and pitch-handling abilities.  The deal is for $5 million 2009 and a hybrid option year for 2010.  As much as I would have hoped that another franchise would buy Scott Boras’ sales pitch (Varitek can bend curveballs with his mind and heal pitchers’ aching shoulders with Mr. Miyagi style rubdowns), it looks like that is not going to happen.  Nobody is drinking the Kool-Aid; teams are analyzing Varitek’s abilities at face value.

At this point, it might make more sense for Varitek and the Sox to come to terms…under one condition.  Varitek should be a platoon catcher, starting against left-handed pitchers only.  The Captain is a completely different hitter against RHP and LHP.  Last season, for instance:

Varitek vs LHP:  .284/.378/.484
Varitek vs RHP: .201/.293/.323

If we are to believe the tales of ‘Tek’s intangibles, we could make the assumption that he could work with whoever the primary catcher might be (Josh Bard, Goerge Kottaras, Dusty Brown, one of the Texas studs), to help them become a better handler of pitching staffs, to help them become acclimated to Beckett, Matsuzaka, et al.  Part of being a leader is the ability to transfer knowledge and delegate authority.  If Varitek is anything close to the guy we’re hearing about from the likes of Scott Boras and Peter Gammons, than this role, a “Jake Taylor” mentorship role, would be a good fit.

The real questions are:
1) Would Varitek accept a role where his plate appearances are cut in half?
2) Would manager Terry Francona use Varitek in this diminished role?

The answers to these two questions could either solidify or cast doubt upon the legendary reputations of both men.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 1/26/2009 10:13 am

As I’m sure you already know, Theo Epstein kept his anti-arbitration streak intact by recently reaching an agreement on a 1-year contract with All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon.  It should also come as no surprise that the two parties have discussed a long-term deal.  No agreement was reached, and perhaps Epstein is seeing what I’m seeing here: the Sox should tread carefully, as a long-term deal for Papelbon could easily turn into an expensive albatross.

If you’ve watched enough games over the past 3 seasons, you would have noticed the exact same thing I’ve noticed: Papelbon, while still an excellent reliever, has slightly regressed.  By regressed, I mean that he has gone from being the most dominant pitcher in the game in 2006-2007 to being merely “great” in 2008.  Although it’s not something that you can really glean from statistics, as the small sample size of relief innings will cause a natural high deviation between seasons, his contact rates and line drive rates were at a personal high in 2008 (along with his innings total). There were outings where the guy just looked tired.  His fastball, which is usually other-worldly, would occasionally appear to be ordinary and hittable.  This usually happens toward the end of the season, a sign that the issues are definitely fatigue-related.

Let’s take a look at his splits:

1st half 2008: 10.51 K/9, .210/.220/.290
2nd half 2008: 9.38 K/9, .235/.268/.338

Well, to be honest, this is really superficial.  While I was hoping the numbers would support my feelings on the matter, this variance really isn’t much of a difference at all due to the aforementioned small sample issue, and his 2nd half numbers are actually better than I expected.  Maybe it’s just a figment of my imagination. But, I see what I see.  To my untrained eye, Papelbon appears to be showing a little wear-and-tear from those glove-burning fastballs and splitters.

I believe a year-to-year approach might be the best way to deal with “Cinco Ocho”.  Let’s see how his arm holds up this season, and proceed accordingly.  Do the same the year after that (at which point he’ll be going on 30).  Of course, this will have to be done delicately, as Papelbon isn’t the most emotionally stable guy in the room, and has shown no qualms about airing his contract status to the press.  Hey, according to the man himself, he enjoys “rolling the dice”.  Might as well humor him for the next couple of seasons.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 1/20/2009 10:27 am

Hope: The Sox inked All-Star Kevin Youkilis to a 4 year contract worth about $40 million.  The deal buys out his final two years of arbitration, and pushes his free agency date two years beyond that.  The Red Sox hope Kevin (who turns 30 in March) can stay healthy and in decent shape for the next four years.  If he does, his contract will be an absolute steal when compared to the salaries of his peers at both 3B and 1B.  However, 30-33 is a delicate age for players, especially those who are somewhat slow-footed to begin with.  I like the gamble.

Change: Our favorite AAAA pitcher, David Pauley, was traded to the Orioles for pitcher Randor Bierd.  It’s a good deal for Boston and Baltimore both.  Bierd is a bullpen project, a former Tommy John guy with an impressive arsenal of pitches.  He’ll join the Pawsox and will be one of the first names called when an extra bullpen arm is needed in Boston.  The party who benefits most from this trade is David Pauley, who is likely to start the season in the back end of Baltimore’s starting rotation.  Good for him.

Hope: Slugger David Ortiz, training in the Dominican, tells us that his wrist feels good. This is straight from the horse’s mouth, and at the risk of sounding like a cynic, a pro athlete’s opinion of his own health should usually be taken with a grain of salt.  We’ll see how he looks in the spring.  Since the Sox have (thus far) failed to upgrade their lineup, the question of whether or not Ortiz is healthy might be the ultimate factor for the team’s 2009 hopes.

Change: Jason Varitek should change agencies.  For all the praise Scott Boras receives, and most of it is very well deserved, his advice will end up costing Jason Varitek something in the ballpark of $5 million.  At first, I was hopeful that ‘Tek would sign elsewhere and get the Sox a compensation draft pick, but at this point it appears that there is absolutely no market for the aging catcher’s services.  Perhaps if Boras wasn’t occupied with making the Yankees bid against themselves for Mark Teixeira (and I can’t say I blame him, considering he probably gets a flat percentage commission), he would have been able to analyze Varitek’s situation more carefully.

Change:  It looks like Alex Cora has signed with the Mets.  While the Sox should now cancel their registration in the academic decathlon, I’d have to say this is good news, as Terry Francona seemed to have some sort of oddly misplaced confidence in the light-hitting infielder.  Taking Cora out of Francona’s toolbox will slightly improve the offense in 2008.  Speaking of which…

Hope: There have been reports that Julio Lugo, hoping to reclaim the starting shortstop job, has gained 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason.  Yeah, call me a skeptic.  But hey, it’s great that he has a competitive fire lit beneath him, as the Sox will at least have a decent infielder on the bench (whether it be Lugo or Lowrie).  I’ve long felt that Lugo was unfairly trashed here due to his bloated contract, and think he will be quite useful in a utility role.  Let’s just hold our breath and see what this extra 20 pounds really looks like down in Fort Myers.

Happy Inauguration Day.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 1/14/2009 11:19 pm

No, that is not the title of my autobiography.  “Absolute Zero” is a scientific term which describes the current air temperature in the greater Boston area.  My daily commute involves about 1.5 miles of walking, and I am now fairly certain that my testicles are frozen.  They are as useful as a pair of click clacks; I am now sterile.  No children in Jimmy’s future.  Mission accomplished!

Since I will have freed myself of any major future obligations, I might as well post my thoughts on Jim Rice’s election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

In the past few years, I told myself that I’d be indifferent to the vote, either way it went.  There’s certainly a strong case to be made that Mr. Rice is not a Hall of Famer (his .789 road OPS being Exhibit #1 in that case), but I also believe there was a strong argument to be made for his inclusion.  The Hall is painted in shades of gray, and the bottom layer is molded in the eye of the beholder.  Rice now joins the Catfish Hunters, the Phil Rizzutos, and the Herb Pennocks…players who will forever be referenced when other fringe candidates make their case.

When someone like Matt Holliday retires 10 years from now with a career 130 OPS+, Rockies/A’s fans will use Jim Rice’s resume to build his Hall of Fame case.  So it will be for dozens of other players, similar to the “Tony Perez Argument” you have doubtlessly heard for dozens of recently retired sluggers. That will be the curse of Jim Rice’s legacy.  He is now part of the benchmark.

Other than that, I’m actually pretty damn happy about the whole thing.  I listened to the announcement live, and found myself making a vigorous fist pump when the word “and” came up after Rickey Henderson’s name.  You could tell that Jim really, really wanted this, even though he tried his hardest to feign indifference at times.

There’s definitely a few more guys who should have been given the call before number #14.

Ron Santo
Bert Blyleven
Rock Raines
Mark McGwire
Dwight Evans

However, the injustices of a few shouldn’t preclude other players of similar value from getting the call.

To this day, I’m not really sure if I would have voted for him had my fan allegiance been to a different franchise.  It’s another “B” in Cooperstown, and that’s all right with me.

Comments Off

By Jimmy, 1/12/2009 3:09 pm

In his final year of eligibility, Jim Rice has been elected to the Hall of Fame.

Link

I’ll have my take on this later.

Comments Off

By Jimmy,

Theo Epstein opened up his wallet once again this weekend, adding yet another medical cadaver to the fray in Takashi Saito.

I’m joking here because I do like the signing, it’s another bit of inexpensive bird shot to load into Terry Francona’s bullpen shotgun.  Saito will be in a low pressure situation in 2009; the Red Sox are not counting on him to be the 9th-inning juggernaut he was in Los Angeles.  The Sox have enough reliable arms in the pen to begin the season, and they have the ability to be conservative with Saito’s workload out of the gate.

It’s probably best that we don’t get our hopes up too high for Saito, as there were grumblings that his right arm was “hanging by a thread” at the end of the 2008 season.  Regarding his elbow, Theo Epstein had this to say (among other things) via conference call on Saturday per WEEI.com:

“Clearly he had the elbow issue last year. He worked hard and came back in September and threw fairly well in September and he’s been throwing out to about 150 feet with good results. No pain whatsoever. The most significant step for us with regards to his health was the extensive physical we put him through in the last couple of days. He did really well on the physical examination. No sign of pain whatsoever. Our guys put him through a number of tests and he did well. The contract is built to sort of mitigate risk on both sides and we think there’s significant upside to Takashi and we can’t wait to see what our pen looks like if he’s in the middle of it.”

The best case scenario is a healthy Takashi Saito baffling AL hitters as he did in the NL for the past three years, supplementing the most dominant bullpen in baseball.  He would then become a surrogate for fellow righty Justin Masterson, who could be gradually converted into a starter.  The worst case scenario is he becomes a two million dollar hiccup: prolonged absences with periodical appearances in which he gets shelled, followed by his retirement.  Not a pretty situation, but not one which would cause too much damage to a team already heavily invested in bullpen arms.

A good over/under mark for Saito’s innings total would be around 40.  I’ll take the over.

Prediction: 52 innings, 53/24 K/BB, 3.07 ERA.

Comments (6)

By Jimmy, 1/9/2009 10:21 am

Mark Kotsay, the backup “first baseman” who endeared himself to fans of the Tampa Bay Rays last October, will be occupying a 25-man roster spot once again.

I understand he’ll likely play better than his putrid 2008 pennant-killing stint, and yes, he can play CF, but why not just utilize some of the AAAA talent waiting in Pawtucket instead of throwing 1+ million dollars at an empty uniform?  Is Kotsay’s grittiness/character/whatever a factor that vaults him ahead of the rest of the pack?

Folks who are worried about the durability of J.D. Drew and Rocco Baldelli need to understand that there are better in-house resources available in the event that the aforementioned players go down with injuries.

For what it’s worth, 2009 MARCEL projections:

Mark Kotsay: .258/.317/.373

Jeff Bailey: .266/.345/.438
Chris Carter: .278/.349/.422
Jonathan Van Every: .262/.332/.412

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 1/8/2009 6:49 pm

The Red Sox dominated the daily hot stove headlines on Thursday by acquiring Rocco Baldelli and John Smoltz, two players who can be extremely productive if they manage to take the field in a healthy state. The problem is, that “if” in my last sentence weights about 3,000 pounds. Both players are extremely difficult to evaluate at this time. One guy will be 42-years-old in May and is still wearing a hospital gown from his season-ending labrum surgery, and the other guy is a walking medical anomaly.

First, let’s look at future Hall of Famer John Smoltz.

John Smoltz
Right-Handed Pitcher
Age: Turns 42 on 5/15/09
Last Season Performance: 28 innings, 25 hits allowed, 36/8 K/BB, shoulder surgery

• Fastball: “Smoltzie” was dialing it up to about 95 MPH (93 on average) when he was healthy last April, which is impressive for a guy whose pro career dates back to the Reagan administration. But, he is recovering from shoulder surgery, so the usual caveat applies…
• Split-Fingered Fastball: Just a nasty pitch, 88-90 MPH and moving about 7-8 inches horizontally (like a screwball).
• Slider: Smoltz was throwing his slider much more often in 2008 in lieu of the fastball.  It’s still effective, 85 MPH and throw for strikes about 75% of the time.
• Curveball: A hard curve, about 78 MPH. Not thrown very often.
• Control: As good as anyone. Smoltz is one of those guys whose control improved greatly as their career progressed.; He averaged 3.7 walks per 9 innings when he was a 26-year-old, compared to 1.1 walks per 9 innings when he was 36. Like every other aspect of his game, it was taken to an elite level.
• Durablility: Geez, who the hell knows? At this point we have to assume that the guy will have serious durability issues. The article I liked above uses June 1st as a debut estimate, and I consider it a prudent estimate. The one bright spot you can point to is his 2007 innings total: 206.
• Comments: The Red Sox have had decent success in recruiting aging legends of the mound during the sunsets of their respective careers. Curt Schilling, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Seaver, so on and so forth. Smoltz should ass another notch to that list. While fans may still be sore from the Bartolo Colon experience, Smoltz is nothing like Bartolo physically and mentally.
• Jimmy’s Prediction: 17 starts, 108 innings, 101/29 K/BB, 3.48 ERA, 9 wins, 4 losses. (Let’s see how I do against Bill James, Marcel, ect…)

Next, I’ll evaluate Saint Rocco, our new 4th outfielder.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 1/5/2009 10:18 am

During my commute to work this morning (one in which I had to employ an undignified penguin-like shuffle to avoid slipping on the veneer of ice covering Boston’s sidewalks), I realized that the next two months are unarguably the worst time of the year.  There are no redeeming qualities of January and February, with the exception of a couple of Monday holidays.

In other words, we need to grab life in the palms of our hands and squeeze out whatever joy and optimism we can.  Here’s something to consider: the Red Sox bullpen for 2009.

It appears that the Sox are looking at adding another arm to the fray after acquiring Ramon Ramirez and Wes Littleton.  According to Nick Cafardo, they have made an offer to former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito.  Saito is older than dirt (will be 39 on Valentine’s Day) and an injury risk (suffered an elbow injury last season), but the guy has been one of the most effective relief pitchers in baseball over the past three seasons (229 ERA+).

As it currently stands, assuming a 12 man pitching staff, the 2009 Boston bullpen is looking like this:

1. Jonathan Papelbon: 10 K/9, 1 BB/9, 198 ERA+
2. Hideki Okajima: 8.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 177 ERA+
3. Justin Masterson: 54.3% ground balls, 146 ERA+
4. Manny Delcarmen: 8.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 141 ERA+
5. Ramon Ramirez: 8.8 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 162 ERA+
6. Javier Lopez:  51.1% ground balls, 190 ERA+
7. Mystery Arm (Littleton, Aardsma, Saito, ect…)

Several things could happen to change this dynamic:

1) The Sox could decide to use Justin Masterson as a starting pitcher in 2009, which would open up an additional bullpen spot for one of the fringe guys such as David Aardsma, or a new aquisition such as Saito.  I’ll have more on this option later in the week.

2) A trade could occur.  The Sox are reportedly looking for a big bat via trade, and likely bargaining chips are the cost-controlled Masterson and Delcarmen.  This would obviously create more open spots in the pen.

Either way, it appears that the Sox will carry a formidable group of arms in 2009.  This is a ray of light in what has thus far been an underwhelming offseason.