Sox Take On Risk, Hope For Reward
The Red Sox dominated the daily hot stove headlines on Thursday by acquiring Rocco Baldelli and John Smoltz, two players who can be extremely productive if they manage to take the field in a healthy state. The problem is, that “if” in my last sentence weights about 3,000 pounds. Both players are extremely difficult to evaluate at this time. One guy will be 42-years-old in May and is still wearing a hospital gown from his season-ending labrum surgery, and the other guy is a walking medical anomaly.
First, let’s look at future Hall of Famer John Smoltz.
John Smoltz
Right-Handed Pitcher
Age: Turns 42 on 5/15/09
Last Season Performance: 28 innings, 25 hits allowed, 36/8 K/BB, shoulder surgery
- Fastball: “Smoltzie” was dialing it up to about 95 MPH (93 on average) when he was healthy last April, which is impressive for a guy whose pro career dates back to the Reagan administration. But, he is recovering from shoulder surgery, so the usual caveat applies…
- Split-Fingered Fastball: Just a nasty pitch, 88-90 MPH and moving about 7-8 inches horizontally (like a screwball).
- Slider: Smoltz was throwing his slider much more often in 2008 in lieu of the fastball. It’s still effective, 85 MPH and throw for strikes about 75% of the time.
- Curveball: A hard curve, about 78 MPH. Not thrown very often.
- Control: As good as anyone. Smoltz is one of those guys whose control improved greatly as their career progressed.; He averaged 3.7 walks per 9 innings when he was a 26-year-old, compared to 1.1 walks per 9 innings when he was 36. Like every other aspect of his game, it was taken to an elite level.
- Durablility: Geez, who the hell knows? At this point we have to assume that the guy will have serious durability issues. The article I liked above uses June 1st as a debut estimate, and I consider it a prudent estimate. The one bright spot you can point to is his 2007 innings total: 206.
- Comments: The Red Sox have had decent success in recruiting aging legends of the mound during the sunsets of their respective careers. Curt Schilling, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Seaver, so on and so forth. Smoltz should ass another notch to that list. While fans may still be sore from the Bartolo Colon experience, Smoltz is nothing like Bartolo physically and mentally.
- Jimmy’s Prediction: 17 starts, 108 innings, 101/29 K/BB, 3.48 ERA, 9 wins, 4 losses. (Let’s see how I do against Bill James, Marcel, ect…)
Next, I’ll evaluate Saint Rocco, our new 4th outfielder.
Looks like Mr. Kotsay and his smoking hot wife will be back in Boston this year.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?&articleid=1144153&format=&page=1&listingType=sox#articleFull