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By Jimmy, 2/25/2009 6:04 pm

…Play Ball!

Bill Romanowski’s Alma Mater 1
Boston 7

In their first organized baseball game since last October, a Red Sox split-squad team defeated the Boston College Eagles.

Some highlights:

• Chris Carter belted a 3-run double.  (It took me all of 20 minutes, but I’m finally convinced.  He should have Mark Kotsay’s roster spot.)
• SS prospect Yamaico Navarro belted a HR and a double.
• Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz combined for 3 perfect innings.
• Junichi Tazawa made his American baseball debut, throwing a handful of pitches in a flawless outing.
• Daniel Bard and his 100-MPH heat made an appearance against the terrified BC hitters (one of them got a hit off him, though).
• Rocco Baldelli struck out a couple of times.  I have no doubt this was intentional; he wanted to let a couple of college pitchers have the thrill of striking out the best Rhode Island athlete since Davey Lopes.
• In a moment of extreme levity, the Sox sent 48-year-old staff coach Ino Guererro up to the plate as a pinch hitter.  Guererro, over twice the age of every player on the opposing roster, drew a walk.

The other half of the Red Sox spring training team will suit up against the Minnesota Twins in the first game of the 2009 Mayor’s Cup.  This one will be on NESN. Plan accordingly.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy,

Sometimes, I think about the Houston Astros, and I get a little depressed.  I was a child of the late 1980’s, and nothing represented the 1980’s better than the old Astros “stripe” uniform.  So, thinking about the Astros will inevitably get me thinking about that uniform, which in turn gets me thinking about carefree, innocent times.  Uniforms sure are different these days.  Everything is in shades of gray.  Streamlined, safely devoid of character and innovation.  Spawned from lemming focus groups with the purpose of selling to everyone while offending no one.  The “stripe” uniforms are never coming back, and neither are those carefree days.  If the world economy does eventually collapse, maybe I’ll think about that orange and red stripe and smile for a moment.

2009 projected rotation:

1) Roy Oswalt
2) Wandy Rodriguez
3) Brian Moehler
4) Mike Hampton
5) Brandon Backe

Oswalt, a 3-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer (barring catastrophic injury) will anchor a very thin rotation.  Oswalt himself will be 32 in August and posted the lowest ERA+ of his 8 year career in 2008 (although still very good -120).  Rodriguez had himself a career year at age 29 last season, as his K rate has gradually risen in each year he’s been in the league.  Now that he’s 30, we should at least expect some sort of normalization to that trend.

One we get past Rodriguez…wait for it…wait for it…”Houston, we have a problem!”.  Ha! Yes, I said it.  I was up all night trying to figure out how I could work that line into the analysis, and I just went for it, you know?  But, seriously though, the back-end of that rotation is pretty terrible.  I’ll throw one more NASA analogy at you: relying at Mike Hampton to start 32 games is like trying to fly to the moon in a WWI-era biplane.  Okay, I’m done.

Rotation Grade: D+

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Jose Valverde (CL)
LaTroy Hawkins
Doug Brocail
Geoff Geary
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak
Chris Sampson

Valverde’s a decent swing-and-miss closer.  One are where I feel the pen is a little shaky is the bridge from the young relievers to Valverde; Hawkins is 36 and Brocail will be 42 in May.  If anything, there’s plenty of experience available to throw onto the field in late innings of tight ballgames, but can those guys really keep it up over a long season?  Geary’s a guy with a career ERA+ of 123 and a ground ball rate near 50%.  He’s only allowed 30 HRs in over 300 career innings between Houston and Philly, so he should continue to be decent in Enron…er…Minute Maid Park .  Wright is a live arm with a high K rate and plenty of potential, and Sampson is your typical league-average long-man (he’ll most likely get some starts given the space shuttle explosion that is the rotation).

Bullpen Grade: B-

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Kaz Matsui 2B
2) Hunter Pence RF
3) Lance Berkman 1B
4) Carlos Lee LF
5) Miguel Tejada SS
6) Geoff Blum 3B
7) J.R. Towles C
8) Michael Bourn CF

Bench:

Humberto Quintero C
Aaron Boone INF
Darin Erstad OF
Jason Michaels OF
Edwin Maysonet SS

An outstanding lineup up top, but not a lot of offensive support in the bottom half.  A key to Houston’s success will be the health of guys like Lee and Tejada, because that bench is incredibly thin.  To get an idea of just how thin Houston’s reserve pool is, Baseball Prospectus is predicting that Koby Clemens (Roger’s 22-year-old son, has yet to reach Double-A) will make an appearance on the MLB roster at some point in 2009.  Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game and he will be surrounded by run-producers, so Houston should score quite a few runs despite the lackluster 6-7-8 hitters in this lineup.

Offensive Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

Miguel Tejada has been repeatedly panned by the baseball cognoscenti as one of those Jeter-esque “all-bat, no-glove” shortstops, but he actually did improve quite a bit in his first season in the NL.  It’s odd that his defensive prowess is negatively correlated to his bat, and one might theorize that it is a loss in bulk leading to his extra mobility.  Matsui, Blum, Bourn, and Pence are all slightly above-average fielders.  Berkman and Lee are…good hitters.

Fielding Grade: C+

Despite a rotation which might be the thinnest in baseball, Houston does have some Cinderella potential given their powerful lineup and their versatile bullpen.  Unfortunately, they are in that pesky 6-team division, and that rotation might be subjected to some serious abuse against the likes of Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun.  Even if they do find themselves contending in July, there’s not much hope for the Astros pulling off a mid-season trade for pitching, as their minor league system is very shallow.

Overall Grade: 58.6 (C+) 

Next up: This team plays in my favorite MLB stadium (out of the 12 or so I’ve visited), but my least favorite neighborhood.  A terrific stadium surrounded by a sea of squalor and neglect.

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By Jimmy, 2/23/2009 10:31 am

Supposedly the Academy Awards are being distributed as I type this.  I’m not watching, but I’m willing to bet my mortgage that Heath Ledger will posthumously win the award for Best Supporting Actor.  Now, I did see the Dark Knight and I thought it was well done, and Ledger was probably at least as good as Jack Nicholson was in the same role years ago.  However, I’ve been wondering…how hard is it to play a crazy guy, to produce a gravelly voice and laugh frantically and wear makeup and act like a psychopath?  I contend that it’s relatively easy for trained actors to do that sort of thing, yet it’s these types of roles that draw the most attention.  I guess the point I’m trying to make is this: if this guy didn’t eat a bunch of pills and off himself, do we really think he’d win an Oscar for his role as “The Joker”?  Something to ponder.

On to our next team.

Florida Marlins
2008 Pythagorean Record: 81-81
2008 Finish: 3rd place, NL East

2009 Projected Rotation:

1) Ricky Nolasco
2) Josh Johnson
3) Anibal Sanchez
4) Andrew Miller
5) Chris Volstad

A couple of nights ago I was watching the MLB Network, and Harold Reynolds was on with a few other guys.  He was talking about teams with good rotations, and claimed that Florida might have the best front three in the game.  My initial thought after hearing this was that Harold must have licked a brightly-colored South American toad before the broadcast.  But then I realized that Reynolds probably misspoke, he was most likely talking about Tampa Bay.

The main problem with Florida’s rotation isn’t the inexperience (although that is a problem), it’s that 4 of these guys are injury risks, and the one guy who isn’t (Volstad) is 22-years-old and one year removed from High-A ball.  Nolasco was Florida’s best starter in 2008, but pitched only a handful of innings in 2007.  Miller, Johnson, and Sanchez were all hurt at some point in 2008.  They are reportedly healthy now, but if one or more of these guys go down in 2009, there isn’t much in the way of depth to replace them.  Florida has drawn buckets of talent from their prospect well very early as they are prone to do, and now there isn’t much left down there.  If I were grading this group on upside they might get an “A”.  Unfortunately, I have to consider how well I think they’ll fare in 2009 alone.

Rotation Grade: D

2009 Projected Bullpen:

Matt Lindstrom (CL)
Leo Nunez
Scott Proctor
Reynel Pinto
Logan Kensing
Taylor Tankersley
Jose Ceda

The hard-throwing Lindstrom inherits the closer’s role from Kevin Gregg (traded to the Cubs), and he’ll be set-up by newcomers Leo Nunez and Scott Proctor.  Kensing, Pinto, and Tankersley are all younger guys who’ve have had control problems in their MLB careers.  Lindstrom is a true talent and there’s some upside among the younger kids, but the macro picture of this bullpen looks like a scattered mess of flotsam and jetsam.  Scott Procter?  Ugh.

Bullpen Grade: D+

2009 Projected Offense:

1) Cameron Maybin – CF
2) Jeremy Hermida – RF
3) Hanley Ramirez – SS
4) Dan Uggla – 2B
5) Cody Ross – LF
6) Jorge Cantu – 3B
7) John Baker – C
8) Gaby Sanchez – 1B

Bench:

Dallas McPherson – 3B
Wes Helms – 1B
Alfredo Amezaga – CF/SS/2B
Luis Gonzalez – OF
Mike Rabelo – C

Gone are Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, and in their place are two rookies who have not played a single game in AAA.  Maybin and Sanchez were both decent in AA (.277/.375/.456 and .314/.404/.513 respectively) but it will be difficult for them to perform at even league average levels out of the gate.  To be fair, I would have applied that same prognosis to Hanley Ramirez in the spring of 2006, and it would have looked rather foolish now.  Hey, Florida likes ‘em young.  Sometimes it actually works out.

As a whole, the lineup is decent.  Ramirez is terrific of course, Uggla is one of the best offensive second basemen in the game, and Hermida, Ross, and Baker are all above average offensive players at their positions.  I’m not entirely sold on the Jorge Cantu renaissance, but if the Bad Jorge shows up in 2009, the Fish do have Dallas McPherson available (.275/.379/ .618 in the PCL last year).

Offensive Grade: B-

2009 Fielding Projection:

It’s always difficult to analyze the defense of rookies.  Not a ton of defensive analysis is published from the minor league levels, but the folks at www.minorleaguesplits.com at least give it a try.  However, sometimes there are problems with inconsistency (just as there are with the MLB fielding data I reference from time to time).  According to the above website, Cameron Maybin was great defensively in 2006, terrible in 2007, and just about average in 2008.  We do know that he’s very quick and thus would probably cover lots of ground, so we’ll assume he’s at least average in CF in 2009.  The other two outfielders are above average.

The problem is Florida’s infield.  The left side of that infield might be the worst in the Major Leagues, and Uggla’s not exactly Johnny Evers himself.

Defensive Grade: D+

The Marlins were one of the more surprising teams in baseball last year, and would have received much more national love were it not for their bottom-feeding cousins from across the peninsula.  Larry Beinfest continues to face the challenge of maintaining talent while working with a microscopic budget and a non-existent fan base.  As they always do, the Fish are counting on the performances of several players who would still be in the minor leagues were they in different organizations.

At the very least, the explosive lineup will cause a stir among the handful of fans at Dolphins Stadium.

Overall Grade: 51.7 (C/C-)

Next Up: Ground Control to Major Tom, Your 3 through 5 Starters are Awful, There’s Something Wrong, Can You Hear Me Major Tom…Can You Hear Me Major Tom…

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By Jimmy, 2/19/2009 10:22 am

Red Sox spring training camp has been the joyous Sea of Tranquility we’ve all expected.  Every single player on the roster is in the best shape of his career.  Mike Lowell can crush cinder blocks with hips, like nutcrackers with an almond.  David Ortiz’s wrist is as sinewy as a cord of lumber.  Julio Lugo has put on 50 pounds of pure muscle with an offseason diet of black beans and 12-grain bread.  And his cousin wasn’t doing the shopping for him, either.

Oh, right, there was a public media spat between Sox pitcher Brad Penny and MLB Network hobgoblin Larry Bowa, a bit of tension carrying over from their LA days.  This isn’t a surprise; Penny is known as an easygoing fellow, while Larry Bowa is the textbook manifestation of the Napoleon Complex, just a puss-filled wart of a human being.  Even so, Terry Francona had this to say: “I’m confident you won’t see the back and forth anymore with that”.  Translation: Tito dropped the Hammer of Thor on Penny.  I hope he’s OK.

Let’s see what Billy Beane has cooking in Oakland this year:

Oakland Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Justin Duchscherer
2) Dana Eveland
3) Sean Gallagher
4) Dallas Braden
5) Gio Gonzalez

Duchscherer was on track for a Cy Young caliber season in 2008 before suffering a hip injury.  Reports indicate that he should be ready to start on Opening Day, and while he probably won’t provide a sub-3 ERA all season long, he’s most likely the best starter in this rotation.  Eveland could be league average if he throws strikes and keeps the ball down, but he’s not overpowering at all.  Braden can be overpowering, but hasn’t thrown more than 150 innings in a season.  I went to Stonehill College with 12 or 13 guys named Sean Gallagher, so maybe one of them pitches for the A’s now.  I hope he can score me tickets.  Gonzalez will compete for that 5th spot with Josh Outman (Trevor Cahill is a dark horse).  As they usually are, the Oakland organization is stocked with young arms.  The bad news is, the best of these arms are not ready for major league action: Cahill and Brett Anderson.  These guys are probably a year away from having any sort of success at the MLB level, and the bulk of the starters penciled into this rotation do not have tremendous near-term upside.

Rotation Grade: D+

Oakland Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Brad Ziegler
Joey Devine
Jerry Blevins
Russ Springer
Michael Wuertz
Santiago Casilla
Josh Outman

Gone is closer Huston Street, packaged to Colorado for big bopper Matt Holliday.  Even so, the Oakland bullpen should be pretty good next year.  Devine and Ziegler were both outstanding in 2008, finishing 6th and 8th in Al Rookie of the Year balloting respectively (pretty impressive for middle relievers).  They combined to have a 0.85 ERA over 105.1 innings, only 2 HR’s allowed.  Those numbers are unearthly and probably unrepeatable, but a competent projection would have both of these guys sitting in the 2.50 ERA range under normal circumstances. Blevins has averaged nearly 11 K/9 in his professional career, and should be a very solid setup man.  Wuertz and Casilla are both league average at worst, and Russ Springer will be playing the role of the obligatory grizzled veteran in the pen.  A couple of the hot prospects (along with Outman) could be utilized in long-relief roles.  This is a bullpen with a bevy of live arms and high upside, albeit short on experience.

Bullpen Grade: B

Oakland Projected 2009 Offense

1) Ryan Sweeney – CF
2) Mark Ellis – 2B
3) Matt Holliday – LF
4) Jason Giambi – DH
5) Jack Cust – RF
6) Eric Chavez – 3B
7) Kurt Suzuki – C
8) Daric Barton – 1B
9) Bobby Crosby – SS

Bench:

Travis Buck – OF
Rob Bowen – C
Rajai Davis – OF
Cliff Pennington – IF
Jack Hannahan – IF

This is a very Oakland-esque lineup isn’t it?  A bunch of big free-swingers.  Not one base stealer in the bunch (with the exception of Davis on the bench) but plenty of power and plate discipline.  Matt Holliday should be one of the best hitters in the American League.  PECOTA wants to have his children, predicting him to hit .327/.403/.568 in his new environment.  There’s a lot of versatility between DH, 1B, and RF, as Cust, Giambi, Buck, and Barton will all share at bats.  Barton has the most upside of the group, and if he breaks out he’ll nail down the permanent 1B job.  Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis are both wildcards who have been hurt and ineffective of late.  If they return to form, Oakland will turn some heads in the early going.  We’ve been waiting 5 years for Bobby Crosby to turn into Cal Ripken III, and at this point it probably won’t happen.  However, with the power and on-base abilities of the rest of this lineup, he shouldn’t drag down the offense too much.

Offensive Grade: B

Oakland 2009 Fielding Projection:

Intuitively, you’d think Oakland would be a poor defensive team due to the fact that their lineup resembles the Braintree Fire Department softball team.  However, that isn’t really the case at all.  The only big question mark is whether Ryan Sweeney can handle the transition from RF to CF in lieu of the departure of Carlos Gonlzalez.  Nearly everyone else there (especially the infield) is solid with the glove.  Matt Holiday isn’t the butcher you’d expect him to be.  Jack Cust isn’t a good defender, but Travis Buck is…and Buck might actually see more time in RF.

Defensive Grade: B

This team would be scary if not for their lackluster rotation.  Duchscherer could be an ace, but we have to expect him to regress from his monster 2008 season.  The rest of those arms, some promising but some not, could easily get knocked around in a tough American League.  The trade of Rich Harden is looking like a questionable move at this point (assuming they could have shipped someone other than Matt Murton for Matt Holliday this offseason).  Maybe their rotation will prove me wrong.

Overall Grade: 63.8 (B-/C+)  

Next up: we’re going fishing.  (Sails, not tails)

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By Jimmy, 2/17/2009 1:38 pm

As we await A-Rod’s 1 PM press conference, where he will undoubtedly give the public the incontrovertible truth surrounding his illegal performance-enhancing drug abuse ($1,000 says he will take a page out of Andy Pettitte’s playbook and blame it on an injury), let’s take a look at the oldest professional franchise in major American sports.

Projected Rotation:

1) Edinson Volquez
2) Aaron Harang
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Johnny Cueto
5) Homer Bailey

Everybody loves the Josh Hamilton story, but let’s not forget who he was traded for: a 24-year-old starter who won 17 games, struck out 9.46 hitters per game, and made the All-Star team.  Most projections have Edinson Volquez regressing in 2009, but as long as he keeps those strikeout totals high, he should be able to avoid the long-ball problem which plagues so many pitchers at the Great American Ball Park.  The rest of the rotation is set in stone, with the exception of the 5th spot.  I’d say it’s 50/50 whether Micah Owings or Homer Bailey gets the nod.  I’ll give Bailey the nod, since he still has a very high ceiling whereas Owings does not.  Besides, Owings is a career .319/.355/.552 hitter and might be useful in the bullpen, where he could pinch hit AND pitch.  Volquez and Cueto are both live arms with lots of upside, and Arroyo and Harang are hardened veterans who will throw strikes and be average pitchers at worst.  The major X-factor will be Bailey, who looked more like a bust last season.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero (CL)
Arthur Rhodes
David Weathers
Mike Lincoln
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Micah Owings

Cordero isn’t young anymore, but should be at least serviceable in the closer’s role as his K rate stays high enough.  Rhodes and Weathers have both experienced that all-too-familiar career arc: the mid 30’s bullpen renaissance.  Weathers has been more consistent and durable than Rhodes, but both guys should be considered risks at this point in their life cycles.  The rest of these guys (Lincoln, Bray, Burton) have had varying degrees of success in their brief MLB careers, but none of these guys are known for terribly overpowering stuff.  This bullpen could get ugly if those veteran set-up guys can’t hold it together.

Bullpen Grade: C-

Projected Offense:

1) Willy Taveras – CF
2) Edwin Encarnacion – 3B
3) Jay Bruce – RF
4) Joey Votto – 1B
5) Brandon Phillips – 2B
6) Ramon Hernandez – C
7) Alex Gonzalez – SS
8) Jerry Hairston – LF

Bench:

Jaques Jones – OF
Chris Dickinson – OF
Jeff Keppinger – INF
Ryan Hanigan – C
Daryle Ward – 1B

The meat of the order in Cincinnati will be a fun one to watch, as both Bruce and Votto have the potential to emerge as premier hitters in the National League.  However, the loss of Adam Dunn still hurts.  With all of his flaws (offensively and defensively) one cannot describe the difference in production between Dunn and the likes of Jerry Hairston or Jaques Jones.  Other than the gaping crater in left field, the rest of the lineup should be solid.  Willy Taveras might steal over 70 bases under the direction of aggressive manager Dusty Baker.

Offense Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

The Reds have a good middle infield, assuming the reports on Gonzalez’s fully-healed knee are accurate.  At the corners, the team is weak.  Jay Bruce has a rough year defensively, but he could improve with more experience, as could Joey Votto.  We don’t really know who will be playing in LF for the Reds, and Encarnacion is a poor defensive 3B.  Taveras, with all of his speed, doesn’t cover as much ground as you might expect.

Fielding Grade: C

This team is similar to Kansas City; some promising young starters and a lot of upside in the middle of the lineup.  Unlike KC, the Reds find themselves in a very strong division, and I think their bast-case scenario is a 3rd place finish.  A worst case scenario (Bruce, Votto, or Volquez experience sophmore slumps, Bailey doesn’t pan out) would find them in the cellar.

Overall Grade: 61.25 (C+)

Next up: the birthplace of Ebonics. 

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By Jimmy, 2/13/2009 11:29 am

Kansas City Royals

If baseball writers were movie stars, the Royals would be equivalent to the Los Angeles Lakers.  Lots of very high profile and highly respected analysts root for the powder blue, including Bill James, Joe Posnanski, Rob Neyer.  Those three are the Tom Hanks, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Johnny Depp of the baseball punditry world.  I think this analogy would make me a key grip.  And quite honestly, I have no idea what a key grip is.

The Royals are a long way from their cocaine-fueled heydays in the late-70’s to mid 80’s.  The team has had only one winning season (if you can call 83 wins a “winning season”) in the past 15 years.  They do have a innovative GM who is willing to get creative and make moves to improve the team while keeping payroll under the tight budgetary constraints imposed by his owner, and they do have some young, promising players who will be counted on for key performances this year.  Let’s take a look.

Projected Rotation:

1) Zack Greinke
2) Gil Meche
3) Brian Bannister
4) Luke Hochevar
5) Horacio Ramirez

Greinke is one of the more interesting stories in baseball.  Once the top pitching prospect in the game, he was rushed to the Majors at age 20 by incompetent management in 2004.  He pitched well enough in his rookie season, but struggled in his sophomore year, and subsequently suffered a nervous breakdown which caused him to spend significant time off the mound.  When it appeared he was gone for good, Greinke made a comeback, and was nothing short of phenomenal last season.  He’s still only 25-years-old, and has Cy Young potential for 2009.  Gil Meche was one of the most maligned pre-season moves before the 2007, but GM Dayton Moore deserves a pat on his back for rolling the dice and spenging significant money on a guy with electric stuff but not much fo a track record.  Meche, an All-Star in 2007, should be anywhere from solid to very good next year.  After nearly winning the Rookie of the Year in 2007, Brian Bannister was a disappointment last season, as his BABIP normalized (balls began to drop in for hits).  He was never a 121 ERA+ pitcher, but with his excellent control, he should be right around league average.  One time top-prospect Luke Hochevar was only throwing 90-MPH last season and was not missing bats, but he was probably pitching hurt.  The 25-year-old still has the potential to be a decent starter, and he’ll be one of the most watched players in the Royals’ camp this spring.  Horacio Ramirez is actually a terrible MLB pitcher, and he does not deserve to bear the same name as the cop from “CSI Miami”.  Nonetheless, he’ll probably start the year in the rotation because some managers tend to insist on having at least one left-handed starter.  Kyle Davies is a dark horse for the rotation, and will probably compete with Hochevar, not Ramirez (as backwards as that seems).  Overall, it’s a rotation that is very strong up top and promising in the middle.  I am not confident that Horacio Ramirez can keep his ERA under 6.00 in the American League, however.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Joakim Soria (CL)
Kyle Farnsworth
Ron Mahay
Robinson Tejada
Doug Waechter (pronounced “WECK-tur”)
John Bale
Joel Peralta

This bullpen was decent last year, but suffered some losses in the offseason.  Two of KC’s better middle relievers, Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez, were traded away for position players.  Soria has been outstanding in his brief MLB career, and should be one of the top 10 closers in the American League.  Farnsworth can throw 100-MPH but has the brain the size of a nectarine.  He can’t really pitch, and is a colossal downgrade from Ramon Ramirez.  Mahay is decent enough, but he’s approaching 40; the wheels will fall off of that wagon soon.  The rest of this group is average at best and flat out bad at worst.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Projected Offense:

1) David Dejesus – LF
2) Mike Aviles – SS
3) Billy Butler – DH
4) Mike Jacobs – 1B
5) Alex Gordon – 3B
6) Jose Guillen – RF
7) Coco Crisp – CF
8) Alberto Callapso – SS
9) Miguel Olivo – C
Bench:

Mark Teahen – IF/OF
Willy Bloomquist – IF/OF
John Buck – C
Ryan Shealy

Lots of upside in this lineup.  Only two out of the 9 projected starters are over 30 years old (Olivo and Guillen).  Acquisitions Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs will both provide immediate improvements to their predecessors (Joey Gathright and Ross Gload).  My hope is that Crisp does not hit leadoff.  After watching him over the past few years, I can tell you that he’s just not that type of guy.  One of my favorite players, and useful in several areas, but just not really a leadoff hitter.  Billy Butler has been compared to Manny Ramirez by scouts.  While that is probably optimistic, he is an extremely talented hitter who could bust out at any time.  Alex Gordon is another guy who has yet to reach his potential.  Aviles, DeJesus, and Callapso are all decent offensive players who should get on base to set up the power hitters.  The bench is also solid, as both Teahen and Bloomquist could conceivably fight for starting jobs this spring.

Offensive Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

KC will be decent up the middle, and average just about everywhere else.  Aviles was excellent at SS last year, and Callapso will be decent enough.  Coco Crisp is a very difficult player to evaluate defensively.  One year the numbers will say he’s Tris Speaker, the next year he’s Greg Luzinski.  I’m thinking he’s on the better side of average, and should be just fine in Kauffman Stadium.  Gordon, Dejesus, and Guillen are all average at their positions, and Mike Jacobs would be DH’ing if Billy Butler weren’t on the team.

Defensive Grade: C

At the very least, The Royals will be fun to watch in 2009.  They have a handful of young players who are major breakout candidates, and one of the best young starting pitchers in the American League in the form of Greinke.  It does appear that GM Dayton Moore has this team on the right path.  The AL Central isn’t particularly strong, and if everything goes right for KC, they could be the story of 2009.  A few bounces will need to go their way, though.

Overall Grade: 60.2 (C+)

Up next: baseball’s oldest franchise.

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By Jimmy, 2/12/2009 5:16 pm

This is an off-topic rant, just needed to vent for a moment.

I assume you’re aware that a certain popular Olympic athlete was photographed smoking out of a device commonly referred as “a bong”.  Apologies were made, some sponsorships were lost, everybody moves on, right?  I mean, we are involved in a perpetual war and we are on the brink of an economic depression, so we can probably just let bygones be bygones on this one, right folks?  Wrong!

AP Story

A defense lawyer in South Carolina says police in the county where Michael Phelps was photographed smoking from a marijuana pipe have been arresting people as they seek to make a case against the superstar swimmer.

Holy Mother of Christ, they are building a case against Michael Phelps for inhaling pot.  Now keep in mind, this is the same state which recently had the Confederate Flag raised above its capital building, so apparently this brand of ass-backward nonsensical behavior from public servants is the norm down there.  I guarantee there are handfuls of lawmakers supporting this action who are categorically against government expenditures or government intervention of any kind, but by all means, let’s use taxpayer resources to build a case against a 23-year-old American Olympic hero as if he’s “The Greek”, as if he’s running billions of dollars of black tar heroin into the Port of Charleston via cargo containers.  Yes, that makes sense.  Let’s drag out that old bulletin board, draw that criminal org chart, put some photos on the wall.  Deploy surveillance teams, spend some money on top-of-the-line equipment.  The state literacy rates are in the toilet year-after-year, but let’s put all that schoolin’ stuff on the back burner, we got ourselves a stoner to incarcerate!  He’s a snide sombitch who thinks he can come into OUWR STATE and smoke REEFER?! Let’s GIT HIM!

I salute you, Sheriff Kleetus McIncest.  You saw an opportunity to nail some wealthy hippie’s stones to the wall, and make a name for yourself in the process.  Please stop at nothing to bring this monster to justice.  Persevere, Mr. McIncest.  Persevere.

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By Jimmy,

Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 1st Place, World Series Champions

From the point of view of this Red Sox fan, the Phillies are like an older brother. An older brother who has a coke habit, receives unemployment checks, and is in and out of jail.  While you came up from poverty and graduated medical school, you felt some bittersweet remorse for your brother who just couldn’t seem to get it right, just couldn’t find success the way that you did.

Well, last October, things finally came together for our NL brethren.  The World Series victory was nice to see, not just for the reason mentioned above, but for another reason entirely.  How does the saying go…”the enemy of my enemy is my friend”?  Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays have bumped themselves up on our collective shit list, and watching the Cinderella Story get torn to shreds on national television was nothing short of orgasmic.  Even when the team trotted out one of the Hall & Oates guys to bleat the national anthem, my support did not waiver.  That’s dedication, folks.

So, is the 2009 squad built for a repeat?

Projected Rotation:

1) Cole Hamels
2) Joe Blanton
3) Brett Myers
4) Jamie Moyer
5) Kyle Kendrick

The Phillies will essentially feature the same rotation as last year.  Hamels is one of the best young pitchers in the game.  At age 25, he has never had a season in his professional career that wasn’t excellent.  The one issue you have to keep an eye on is his durability.  Hamels was plagued by injuries throughout his minor league career (but when he was healthy, he racked up a combined 1.43 minor league ERA).  He hasn’t had much of a problem yet in his brief Major League career, but after tossing 228 innings last year, who knows how his arm will react?  Joe Blanton and Brett Myers are both league average guys with solid durability, which brings us to Jamie Moyer.  Jamie is now 46.  Unreal, right?  I only vaguely remember when this guy pitched for the Red Sox, because it was so goddamn long ago.  Eventually, the laws of physics and biology will take their course on him; at this point we are just waiting for that shoe to drop.  The 5th spot in the rotation belonged to Kendrick last season and he’s the favorite to retain that role, but he’ll get some competition from veteran Chan Ho Park and prospect Cesar Carassco.

It’s odd (and not at all something I intended) that the three teams I’ve projected so far have similar rotations. Terrific #1 starters, a couple of league average guys in the middle, and gaping question marks in the back.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Brad Lidge
Ryan Madson
Chad Durbin
Scott Eyre
Clay Condrey
Chan Ho Park
Adam Eaton

J.C. Romero will serve his 50 game suspension, so I’ll leave him out of this analysis.  Philly’s bullpen came up huge last season, with a 3.22 ERA in 483 innings of relief.  The good news is that most of those guys will return in 2009.  The bad news is it’s extremely questionable that Ryan Madsen, Chad Durbin, and Clay Condrey can repeat their 2008 success (144, 152, 134 ERA+, respectively).  The middle relief trio only struck out 6.17 guys per 9 innings collectively.  However, at worst, these guys are above-average relievers.  Closer Brad Lidge seems to have returned to his pre-2005 levels of dominance.  Park and Eaton are both dubious MLB talents at this stage of their careers, but their impact will be mitigated if they happen to pitch unreasonably poorly out of the gate.

Bullpen Grade: B

Projected Offense

1) Jimmy Rollins – SS
2) Shane Victorino – CF
3) Chase Utley – 2B
4) Ryan Howard – 1B
5) Raul Ibanez – LF
6) Jayson Werth – RF
7) Pedro Feliz – 3B
8) Carlos Ruiz – C

Bench:

Matt Stairs – OF
Geoff Jenkins – OF
Ronny Paulino – C
Greg Dobbs – 1B/3B
Eric Bruntlett – 2B/SS

It’s odd that the Phillies won a trophy in a season where the face of their franchise, Jimmy Rollins, had an off-year.  Most projections love him for 2009, including PECOTA (.293/.360/.458 in 651 PAs, 36 steals).  The 3/4 combo of Howard and Utley might be the best in the National League, as both guys could be legitimate MVP candidates.  The bottom of the lineup is OK, but the4re should be enough firepower at the top to score runs in 2009.  The one concern here is the substitution of Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell, who will play for the Tampa Bay Rays this year.  Ibanez’s addition will make the heart of Philly’s order very left-handed, and thus vulnerable to LOOGY-ism late in the game.  Also, Ibanez will be 37 in June, so a drop in production in possible.  The team does have the benefit of a good, experienced bench, which is always helpful in the NL.

Offensive Grade: B+

Fielding Projection:

The middle infield combo of Rollins and Utley is not only excellent offensively, but defensively as well.  Both guys led the National League in UZR last season at their respective positions.  Shane “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Victorino assumed full-time CF duties for the first time in his MLB last year, and did the job very well.  Pedro Feliz and Jayson Werth are also among the best fielders at their positions, and the gargantuan Ryan Howard is surprisingly average at first base.  The only area where Philly is weak is in LF, where Ibanez doesn’t have much mobility at all.  But, as I mentioned in the Blue Jays preview, shoddy defense in LF has become the norm in modern MLB baseball.  Overall, this team is excellent defensively.

Defensive Grade: A-

It looks like a team that will contend, but the sum of the parts doesn’t really scream “Championship” to you, does it?  The only major change from 2008 to 2009 is swapping Ibanez for Burrell, which is probably a net loss.  The rotation isn’t very promising outside of the #1 starter, and the bullpen probably overperformed in 2008.  The team was a bit too complacent in the off-season.  They could have really used another starting pitcher, and their solution came in the form of a scrap heap acquisition (i.e. Chan Ho Park).  I’ll be pulling for them to edge out their rivals from Queens, but the odds are not in their favor.  

Overall Grade: 73.5 (B)

Next: we’ll be visiting a city known for great BBQ, and a team with some high-profile fans in the baseball writing community.

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By Jimmy, 2/10/2009 1:16 pm

San Diego Padres

2008 Pythagorean Record: 68-94
2008 Finish: 5th Place

Last year was not a pleasant one for San Diego.  The city saw its property values plummet and its baseball team finish in last place.  Everyone and their mothers predicted the San Francisco Giants to bring up the rear in the NL West last season, but somehow, some way, the Pads managed to edge them out for that dubious honor (and by “edge them out”, I mean they finished 7 games behind the Giants).

Is there a glimpse of hope on the horizon?  While it once seemed like a foregone conclusion that ace pitcher Jake Peavy would be traded away by the cash-strapped team, there might be a change of plans.  The team is in the process of being sold to a group of investors (spearheaded by ex-Manny Ramirez agent Jeff Moorad), and the new owners will likely not be in a rush to gut the franchise of its premier talent, especially a 28-year-old ace pitcher.  Now that Peavy will likely be San Diego’s opening day starter, let’s take a glimpse at the rotation:

Projected Rotation:

1) Jake Peavy
2) Chris Young
3) Cha Seung Baek
4) Josh Geer
5) Kevin Correia

If Peavy stays, the Padres will have a bona fide #1 guy entering his prime, and he’ll be a solid bet to provide at least 180 top-notch innings.  Chris Young missed a bunch of time after getting drilled off the ol’ coconut by a laser beam off the bat of Albert Pujols, but appears to be healthy for 2009.  He’s held hitters to a .224 batting average over his career, and will be effective if healthy (Bill James is predicting a 3.37 ERA over 153 innings).  After Young, things appear to fall apart.  Cha Seung Baek is a league-average guy who keeps the ball in the strike zone but won’t blow anyone away (5.92 K/9 over his career), and the final two sports in the rotation are wide open.  There has been a Mark Prior sighting in San Diego’s spring camp, and he is reportedly throwing.  Since the guy hasn’t worn a game jersey in 2 years, I’ll put the burden of proof on him and keep Correia penciled in the 5th spot (although there will be other candidates: Cesar Carrillo, Chad Reineke, Jae Kuk Ryu, Wade LeBlanc, and Cesar Ramos).  If Jake Peavy is actually traded, this rotation will be in “F” territory.

Rotation Grade: C-

The bullpen will be without a very familiar face, as legend and future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman swaps his surfboard for a home-brewing kit, joining the Milwaukee Brewers.  How does the pen look without him?

Projected Bullpen:

Heath Bell (CL)
Cla Meredith
Mike Adams
Justin Hampson
Mark Worrell
Chris Britton
Jae Kuk Ryu

As much as I hated the Mirabelli for Bard/Meredith swap, I will concede that Cla Meredith is not really the guy you want to hand the 8th-inning to.  But, until Mike Adams returns from injury, he’ll have that responsibility.  Heath Bell was mediocre in the closer’s role last season, but given how he handled himself in 2007 (200 ERA+ in 94 innings), we can probably expect an improvement there.  GM Kevin Towers has made some interesting bullpen acquisitions in the form of Ryu and Worrell, but neither of these guys have much of a MLB track record.  Petco Field is a pitcher’s park, so this bullpen might get the bounces they need in certain situations, but there is a serious lack of depth here.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Offensively, Padres fans were treated to the emergence of one of the better first basemen in baseball, as Adrian Gonzalez played all 162 games, swatted 36 home runs, and hit .279/.361/.510 while making the All-Star team.  Brian Giles had an interesting year, vetoing a trade to the Red Sox and being caught on tape belting his ex-girlfriend, all while hitting .306/.398/.456 at age 37.  Giles will be sticking around San Diego, as will just about their entire 2008 offense with the exception of Khalil Greene.

Projected Lineup:

RF – Brian Giles
CF – Jody Gerut
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF – Chase Headley
2B – Chris Burke
SS – David Eckstein
C – Nick Hundley

Bench:
Cliff Floyd – OF/1B
Louis Rodriguez – INF
Scott Hairston – OF
Henry Blanco – C
Engar Gonzalez

Unfortunately for San Diego, two of their three best performers from 2008 are solid bets to regress in 2009.  Jody Gerut hasn’t played a full season since 2004, and Brian Giles is 38 and has off-field problems.  Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff both have high-upside and could be a decent 3-4 combo, but the rest of the lineup is a little flimsy.  Those last 5 spots in the batting order could put some genuine hate into the hearts of the usually laid-back San Diego residents.  The one spot up in the air here is 2B, where Chris Burke will compete with a couple of other guys this spring, including prospect Matt Antonelli.

Offensive Grade: D+

Fielding Projection:

The data indicates that Jody Gerut played a fine CF last season, 3 years removed from Major League baseball.  I’ll defer to the numbers in this case as assume he’ll be at least serviceable next season.  Brian Giles has been solid since moving to RF.  However, those are the only real bright spots on the diamond.  Eckstein has the range you’d expect of a garden gnome at SS, and both Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez are…hitters, in the purest sense of the word.

Fielding Grade: D

This is definitely a team in full-fledged rebuilding mode.  In San Diego, there are lots of things you can do to keep your mind off of baseball.  Thank God for that.

Overall Score: 41.8 (D+)

Next up: the defending champs!

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By Jimmy, 2/9/2009 10:01 am

Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 4th Place

Right away, there should be warning bells going off.  93 Pythagorean wins last year and a 4th place finish?  Such is life in the AL East, the toughest division in baseball.  As a Red Sox fan, I witnessed firsthand what Toronto was capable of, as they outscored Boston 91-60 in a frustrating 18 game season series.  Toronto’s main strength was their pitching, with a rotation anchored by superstar Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in the game.  The Jays also had the luxury of over 200 quality (if unexpected) innings from A.J. Burnett, as well as surprising performances from the likes of Jesse Litsch and Sean Marcum.  Their 2009 rotation looks to be slightly different, at least to begin the year:

Projected Rotation:

1) Roy Halladay
2) Jesse Litsch
3) David Purcey
4) Casey Janssen
5) Scott Richmond

Starters Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum, instrumental to last year’s rotation, will both miss serious injury time, and A.J. Burnett has decided to sell his soul to Satan.  Former 1st Round pick David Purcey will be called upon to pick up some of the pieces.  He was excellent in AAA last year (121/34 K/BB in 117 innings) before showing promising peripherals in the Majors.   While the first 3 starters are somewhat safe, the final two spots in the rotation are sort of wide open.  Casey Janssen and Scott Richmond are my best guesses as to who will begin the season in the starting rotation, but the team also has a couple of blasts from the past (Matt Clement and Mike Maroth) heading to camp to compete for work.  Let’s just say the Janssen and Richmond present more upside than the other two fellows mentioned above, which really isn’t saying much at all.  As you can see, this is a very top-heavy rotation.  If Litsch isn’t able to replicate last year’s magic, or if Purcey isn’t able to translate his AAA sucess to MLB wins, Roy Halladay will be a lonely guy on that mound.  Halladay’s presence and McGowan’s expected June recovery make the rotation almost respectable.  However, it could easily get very ugly.

Rotation Grade: C+

One saving grace up north could be the Blue Jays bullpen, which should actually get stronger next season.  Jeremy Accardo is reportedly past the arm issues which cost him most of the 2008 season, and he will bolster a pen that was one of the best in baseball last year (lowest bullpen ERA in the AL).

Projected Bullpen:

B.J. Ryan (CL)
Jeremy Accardo
Scott Downs
Brandon League
Jason Frasor
Brian Tallet
Jesse Carlson

With the exception of the gimpy Accardo, all of these guys had performances varying between decent and superb last season.  The one thing keeping this bullpen from a solid “A” is the fact that not one of these relievers averaged more than a K per inning last season.

Bullpen Grade: A-

Offensively, Toronto had the potential to be dangerous last season, with names like Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells.  It just never really came together.  Wells, their best hitter, only appeared in 108 games.  Rios, Rolen, and Overbay all fell a little short of expectations.  The 2009 lineup looks to be similar to the 2008 one:

Projected Offense:

1) Alexis Rios – RF
2) Travis Snider – LF
3) Vernon Wells – CF
4) Lyle Overbay – 1B
5) Scott Rolen – 3B
6) Adam Lind – DH
7) Aaron Hill – 2B
8) Marco Scutaro – SS
9) Rod Barajas – C

Bench:
Joe Inglett – INF
Michael Barrett – C
John McDonald – INF
Jose Bautista – OF

A general note: I wouldn’t put too much stock in that batting order; it’s the order I would use if I were filling out a lineup card.  Cito will probably not hit Travis Snider 2nd, I can tell you that much.

Snider is actually an interesting case.  He’s among a handful of viable Rookie of the Year candidates, and has impressed at every level he has played.  He represents the lone improvement from the 2008 lineup, and a lot could hinge on the performance of the 21-year-old phenom.  If he struggles for a prolonged period of time, he’ll probably find himself in Syracuse, with Jose Bautista playing in his place.  Another area to watch is second base, where Aaron Hill will try to keep his job in the face of Joe Inglett’s impressive 2008 campaign.  Other than these side-stories, there just isn’t a ton to be excited about here, given the lack of power threats.  I like Vernon Wells as much as anyone, but he’s not the guy you build a lineup around.

Offense Grade: C+

Defensively, the Jays are very solid in several areas (3B, RF, 2B), but have gigantic question marks in LF (Travis Snider is known as a no-glove sort of player) and CF (Vernon Wells lost a step last season).  Marco Scutaro is surprisingly decent at SS, having the second best UZR/150 among AL shortstops with at least 400 innings last season.  If a healthy Vernon Wells can somehow manage to cover the ground he once did pre-2008, the Jays will be decent up the middle and at the corners…with the exception of LF.  Most teams punt defense in LF these days, so I won’t really hold it against them.

Fielding Grade: B

If J.P. Ricciardi is finally canned after what will probably be described as a disappointing 8-year tenure akin to the one we just witnessed on Pennsylvania Avenue, you can probably point to that rotation as his Waterloo.  Two of his top 4 starters go down with severe injuries, and he summons the likes of Matt Clement and Mike Maroth, neither of whom have appeared in a MLB game in the past year?  You’re telling me that Mr. Hockey (Tom Glavine) wouldn’t entertain the possibility of playing in Canada for a season?  And it’s not like the offense couldn’t be improved.  Adam Lind is penciled in at DH, but you can’t at least kick the tires on Adam Dunn?

In another division, the Jays might be viable.  They have some upside in that rotation and at certain positions, but outside of Roy Halladay, there just isn’t anyone who strikes fear into the hearts of opponents.  Snider could be that guy in 3 years, but at age 21, he’ll probably have growing pains.  Toronto’s three main competitors all improved this offseason.  Toronto did not.  They will be playing nearly 60 games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays.  They’ll win some, but lose most.

Overall Score: 64.8 (B-)

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By Jimmy, 2/7/2009 12:53 pm

“HA-ha”

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By Jimmy,

All 30 teams have a story.

Although some stories are similar in context, none are exactly the same.  A few, but not all, of these stories will tell the familiar tale of the pursuit of a championship.  Some stories about returning to glory, and some are just about taking those first few steps on the path to redemption.  It’s that time of year again.  The hot stove is just cooling down, and the gloves are about to start to popping down in Florida and Arizona.  Wide-eyed phenoms will compete with grizzled journeymen for that 5th spot in the rotation.  Players fresh off the surgeon’s table are limbering up to prove that they haven’t lost any bat speed.  Can the Cinderella team from 2008 carry their new found success over to 2009?  Will the highly-paid free agent thrive in his new unfamiliar environment?  Does that once-great franchise have any chance at ending their streak of futility with a season of hope and respectability?

30 stories.  Let’s try to predict their ending.

A few notes on this spring’s previews: I’ll be testing out a new system, something I’ve been tinkering with for a while.  It’s a grading system, where I assign a grade to each team in 4 categories: Offense, Rotation, Bullpen, Fielding.  I give each category a letter grade, from A+ to F-.  Each letter grade has a numerical score, based on a scale from 100-1.  Please note that these scores are not really based on the scholastic model you might be accustomed to (i.e. a “C” isn’t 75).  My scale looks more like this: A+ = 100, C+ = 60, F+ = 27, so on and so forth.  Evenly spaced integers, from 100-0.

An overall score is then computed using 4 variables, based on weights that I assigned (rather arbitrarily):

Offense = 50%
Rotation = 30%
Bullpen = 15%
Fielding = 5%

My rationale here: we can agree that 50% of baseball is scoring runs and 50% of baseball is preventing runs, right?  Scoring runs consists solely of offense, so that 50% is the easy part.  Now, we need to break down what it takes to actually prevent the other team from scoring.  The 5% for fielding is the most arbitrary number I have ever pulled out of my ass in my entire life.  I wanted to keep it small and relatively insignificant, because of the difficulty we have in evaluating defense.  The other 45% is pitching.  In modern Major League Baseball, starters will average roughly 6 innings per start, or two thirds of a game.  Therefore, I’ll assign two thirds of the pitching weight to the starting rotation.  Maybe some more weight could go to the bullpen when you consider their importance in extra-inning games, but I’m fine with the weightings as they stand.

As you can see, this isn’t an exact science. I’m not even sure how it will look once I’ve done this for all 30 teams.  It will be an interesting case study to see how my scoring method stacks up against the final results of the 2009 season.

The first team on my agenda is one we’re very familiar with here in the AL East…those pesky birds from up north.  Stay tuned.

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By Jimmy, 2/6/2009 10:56 am

Truck Day is here

As the annual I-95 convoy begins on this frigid afternoon, here are ten unanswered questions to ponder:

1) Who will be the 2nd catcher?
The favorite, at this point, is Josh Bard.  But, with George Kottaras out of options and Dusty Brown impressing AAA crowds with his defense and pitch-handling, this isn’t decided yet.  Josh Bard’s contract isn’t guaranteed, so the Sox could easily go with one of the younger guys.  A trade is a long shot at this point, but it’s not outside the realm of possibilities.

2) Will Mike Lowell be ready for Opening Day?
Much of the success of this team will be dependent upon the health status of several players, including Mike Lowell.  He recently swung a bat for the first time since his surgery last October, and he was wisely kept off of Puerto Rico’s WBC roster.  We’re anxious to see how he looks this spring.

3) What are the organization’s plans for Justin Masterson?
This one is still up in the air, and both sides have been very ambiguous whenever the question has been posed.  Personally, I’d prefer the team groom Masterson to be a starter, since the Red Sox were able to bolster their bullpen with a couple of nifty acquisitions this offseason.  Masterson in the rotation should at least be considered, especially given the next question:

4) Which Brad Penny will show up in 2009?
Penny had an outstanding season in 2007 and a horrible one in 2008.  Much of his 2008 struggles have been attributed to an injury, and pitching guru John Farrell must have seen something he likes in Penny for this coming season.  Can they get this guy back on the right path?

5) How is “The Wrist”?
I don’t even need to name the player attached to The Wrist.  But, just in case you can’t figure it out, here’s a hint: he’s the guy who typically hits a shit load of home runs to help the Red Sox win a shit load of games.  In other words, his health might be a key factor for a team which struggled to score runs down the stretch last season.

6) Who is our shortstop?
I think Jed Lowrie is basically the incumbent at this point, but rumor has it that Julio Lugo has been a man on a mission this winter, gaining 20 pounds.  Now, I’m not sure if his “mission” took place in the weight room or at the buffet table, so let’s see what this 20 pounds looks like before crowning him 2009 Comeback Player of the Year.

7) Whither Clay Buchholz?
I was silently lobbying for the Red Sox to trade Clay Buchholz for Jarrod Saltalamacchia this winter.  That doesn’t mean I am down on Buchholz; it has more to do with my bullish view of “Salty”.  Clay will most likely begin the year in the Ocean State, but if he has an impressive spring, he could possibly start the season in the Boston rotation.  His fate hinges on the next two questions…

8) Will Tim Wakefield pitch?  If so, where?
The Red Sox did exercise their perpetual option with Wakefield, and I have not heard anything (other than idle speculation) which would lead me to believe he is retiring.  Wakefield most likely has a rotation spot chiseled in his name, if he wants it.  Although, he will need to find another profession once the following happens…

9) When will John Smoltz toe the rubber?
A few months ago, the prognosis for Smoltz was a mid-season return.  Now, there have been optimistic reports claiming that he might be ready to pitch in April.  Even if he does return earlier than we believed, will we be getting the same Smoltz that dominated hitters in his brief 2008 stint?

10) How healthy is Rocco Baldelli?
This question is the toughest to answer, because it’s the one for which we have the least amount of information.  It would be nice if he could start against every left-handed pitcher, but we just have no way of knowing what his stamina is like at this point.

Note: I’ll be starting up our annual team previews within the next couple of days.  Also, I’ll be in Fort Myers during the third week in March, and I’ll have hopefully some photos and observations from the games and workouts I attend.

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By Jimmy, 2/5/2009 7:42 am

Theo Epstein was interviewed on the Dale & Holley Show on WEEI yesterday.  There were a few obvious answer to rather dumb questions (Do you feel comfortable with Kevin Youkilis batting cleanup?), but when asked if there were any more moves in store for the Red Sox before the 2009 season begins, his answer was sobering:

“I think we’re probably done. There is always something else that might fit as we round out our spring training roster and there’s always trade discussions as well, so I wouldn’t rule anything out. But nothing is that hot or active right now. I think most teams are packing up and heading down to spring training seeing what they have the first few weeks of camp then trade discussions will pick up from there.”

He does leave it open with qualifiers, but one could assume that the team is not actively pursuing a trade for a young catcher at this time, which is disappointing.  I would have liked to see someone else brought aboard to take some of the strain off of Varitek, especially when the team in facing right-handed pitching.

In other news, the Mark Kotsay acquisition looks even worse today than it did yesterday.  That is something I thought was impossible.  It would be like telling someone in the 19 century that man would walk on the moon in the not so distant future.  If someone were to come up to me on the street last week and say “You will be even more pessimistic on Mark Kotsay Thursday morning”, I would have immediately called the authorities and had this person thrown in a padded cell in Danvers, for he clearly threatens civilized society with such crazy theories.

I guess we need to hope that both Mike Lowell and Rocco Baldelli are healthy.  The former I hear is doing well, but the latter…I have no idea.

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By Jimmy, 2/4/2009 3:05 pm

Henry engaged.

Look, I hate this pop culture malarkey more than anyone, but there’s not a whole lot going on in Red Sox land right now.  I mean, this girl is younger and in better shape than most of the players Theo Epstein has signed this offseason.  If my choice is between ogling some 30-year-old broad on the internet or analyzing Brad Wilkerson’s odds of curing himself of rigor mortis and cracking the lineup in Pawtucket, it’s pretty much a toss-up.

Henry’s fiancee is my age.  Brunette, hot as hell.  Hey, good for him.  This is a guy who made it the right way.  One day he’s sweating bullets on his old man’s farm, and the next he’s devising some logarithm to score beau coup dollars in the commodities market.  A man with these types of accomplishments under his belt deserves a shiny trophy.

The relationship might even be on the level; John Henry’s not that unattractive for a 60-year-old.  He has the whole “skinny well-groomed hipster” thing working for him.  This is Boston, the well-adjusted nerd image is a solid enough approach for luring trim in this town (not that I would know).

As long as the Red Sox ownership group can manage to…maintain their liquidity…me and her will get along just fine.

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By Jimmy,

Continuing the rather “ho-hum” offseason here in Boston, the Red Sox have agreed to terms with OF/1B Brad Wilkerson.  The 31-year-old was signed to a minor league deal.

Once upon a time, Wilkerson used to be a decent all-around player.  He had excellent plate discipline, could hit for power, and run the bases, in addition to playing all 3 outfield positions and the occasional first base.  The 25-year-old version of Brad would be exactly what the Red Sox need on the bench.  Alas, Wilkerson’s performance has been gradually declining for the past few years, and last year was his worst (.220/.308/.326).

While normally I wouldn’t bat an eye at a minor league depth signing like this one, I have to ask: where the hell will this guy play?

Pawtucket has the following probable starters for 2009 (courtesy of Soxprospects.com):

DH: Chris Carter
1B: Jeff Bailey
LF: Paul McAnulty
CF: Jon Van Every
RF: Chip Ambres

There is no way that Wilkerson will supplant Bailey, Carter, or Van Every (Pawtucket’s three best hitters, all of whom are better players than Wilkerson at this point).  Wilkerson is best suited for LF at this point in his career, but McAnulty crushed the ball in AAA last year, and performed better than Wilkerson in a brief stint in the majors.  Since they are both left handed, a platoon isn’t ideal.

Barring a trade, the odd man out is probably Chip Ambres.  He’s a few years younger than Wilkerson and has been hitting relatively well in the minors, but has been overmatched during brief MLB trials.  He can’t really play 1B, so his lack of versatility will make him expendable.  Wilkerson is a notable veteran and a reputable clubhouse presence, and the Sox will use him to shepherd some of the other big bats in AAA.

He won’t move ahead of the likes of Bailey & Carter on the OF/1B depth chart (or, if he does, it will be the wrong decision, in my opinion).

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By Jimmy, 2/3/2009 6:27 pm

The first Red Sox player to arrive at camp is…(drum roll)…pitcher Jon Lester.

Lester, arguably the team’s top starter right now, arrived in sunny Fort Myers 8 days before P’s & C’s, and 3 days before Truck Day.  Maybe it’s appropriate that he’s the first guy in Florida, since he might be throwing the first pitch of the regular season when the Sox open against Tampa Bay at Fenway Park on April 6th.

So what if Phil the Groundhog dragged his fat furry ass out of his cave and decided it would be miserable shit-eating winter for six more goddamn weeks?  You know what? Screw the Groundhog.  I dislike him intensely.  I want to shoot him with a nail gun and turn him into an enchilada.  I want to feed him to my cat.  According to my iPhone, it’s 65 degrees and sunny where Jon Lester is.  Do you hear that, Phil?  Fort Myers does not abide by your meteorologic decree.  100,000 75-year-olds driving big white cars, and Jon Lester. They are outside your sphere of influence.  How does that make you feel, Phil?

Where Jon Lester is, it is spring.

In my rapidly deteriorating mind, it is spring.

Spring is here.

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By Jimmy, 2/2/2009 10:59 am

There hasn’t been much happening since Varitek was signed, and I’m in a bit of a foul mood.  The Super Bowl was a decent enough game, but gee, they’d be a lot more fun to watch if teams that I hate would stop winning them.  It’s going to be a long week with more snow and more low temperatures, and I’m just about ready for this Global Warming bullshit to start taking effect.

Anyway, there was one news tidbit that caught my eye: a team has finally given Manny Ramirez a contract offer.  Yes, the Worcester Tornados of the Can-Am League have offered Manny a contract worth $24,000 for 2009.  There’s no word yet on whether Manny will accept a 99.8% pay cut to move from Los Angeles to picturesque Worcester, so I’ll assume he’s mulling it over.

This is obviously a joke, but it actually got me thinking: what type of numbers would Manny produce if he decided to sit out of MLB for a year and play 1 season of independent minor league ball?  Remember, the Can-Am League is low-level even by independent league standards.  After a cursory glance at the rosters, I could only find one ex-major leaguer of note: Rich Garces.  Compare this to the Atlantic League, which has had the likes of Rickey Henderson, Stephen Drew, and John Rocker pass through.  So, we’ll assume that Manny would aim high and play in the Atlantic League.

One of the best hitters in the Atlantic League last year was a guy playing for the Long Island Ducks, a guy by the name of Carl Everett.  Yes, the same guy.  Jurassic Carl (a nickname which has little to do with his age) hit .327 with 29 HRs and 100 RBI last year for the Ducks.  In his final MLB season in 2006, a 35-year-old Everett struggled to a .227/.297/.360 line in Seattle.  Now, let’s look at Manny’s MLB performance last year: .332/.430/.604.  He was one of the best hitters in all of baseball in two separate environments.  Oh, and he’s a year younger than Carl Everett.

Hypothetically speaking, if Manny were to sign a 1-year deal with the Bridgeport Bluefish…I think his season would look something like this:

475 at bats, 68 home runs, .431/.596/.892, 183 runs batted in.

He’d be a butcher in the field, though.