Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Team Preview
Toronto Blue Jays
2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 4th Place
Right away, there should be warning bells going off. 93 Pythagorean wins last year and a 4th place finish? Such is life in the AL East, the toughest division in baseball. As a Red Sox fan, I witnessed firsthand what Toronto was capable of, as they outscored Boston 91-60 in a frustrating 18 game season series. Toronto’s main strength was their pitching, with a rotation anchored by superstar Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in the game. The Jays also had the luxury of over 200 quality (if unexpected) innings from A.J. Burnett, as well as surprising performances from the likes of Jesse Litsch and Sean Marcum. Their 2009 rotation looks to be slightly different, at least to begin the year:
Projected Rotation:
1) Roy Halladay
2) Jesse Litsch
3) David Purcey
4) Casey Janssen
5) Scott Richmond
Starters Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum, instrumental to last year’s rotation, will both miss serious injury time, and A.J. Burnett has decided to sell his soul to Satan. Former 1st Round pick David Purcey will be called upon to pick up some of the pieces. He was excellent in AAA last year (121/34 K/BB in 117 innings) before showing promising peripherals in the Majors. While the first 3 starters are somewhat safe, the final two spots in the rotation are sort of wide open. Casey Janssen and Scott Richmond are my best guesses as to who will begin the season in the starting rotation, but the team also has a couple of blasts from the past (Matt Clement and Mike Maroth) heading to camp to compete for work. Let’s just say the Janssen and Richmond present more upside than the other two fellows mentioned above, which really isn’t saying much at all. As you can see, this is a very top-heavy rotation. If Litsch isn’t able to replicate last year’s magic, or if Purcey isn’t able to translate his AAA sucess to MLB wins, Roy Halladay will be a lonely guy on that mound. Halladay’s presence and McGowan’s expected June recovery make the rotation almost respectable. However, it could easily get very ugly.
Rotation Grade: C+
One saving grace up north could be the Blue Jays bullpen, which should actually get stronger next season. Jeremy Accardo is reportedly past the arm issues which cost him most of the 2008 season, and he will bolster a pen that was one of the best in baseball last year (lowest bullpen ERA in the AL).
Projected Bullpen:
B.J. Ryan (CL)
Jeremy Accardo
Scott Downs
Brandon League
Jason Frasor
Brian Tallet
Jesse Carlson
With the exception of the gimpy Accardo, all of these guys had performances varying between decent and superb last season. The one thing keeping this bullpen from a solid “A” is the fact that not one of these relievers averaged more than a K per inning last season.
Bullpen Grade: A-
Offensively, Toronto had the potential to be dangerous last season, with names like Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios, and Vernon Wells. It just never really came together. Wells, their best hitter, only appeared in 108 games. Rios, Rolen, and Overbay all fell a little short of expectations. The 2009 lineup looks to be similar to the 2008 one:
Projected Offense:
1) Alexis Rios – RF
2) Travis Snider – LF
3) Vernon Wells – CF
4) Lyle Overbay – 1B
5) Scott Rolen – 3B
6) Adam Lind – DH
7) Aaron Hill – 2B
8) Marco Scutaro – SS
9) Rod Barajas – C
Bench:
Joe Inglett – INF
Michael Barrett – C
John McDonald – INF
Jose Bautista – OF
A general note: I wouldn’t put too much stock in that batting order; it’s the order I would use if I were filling out a lineup card. Cito will probably not hit Travis Snider 2nd, I can tell you that much.
Snider is actually an interesting case. He’s among a handful of viable Rookie of the Year candidates, and has impressed at every level he has played. He represents the lone improvement from the 2008 lineup, and a lot could hinge on the performance of the 21-year-old phenom. If he struggles for a prolonged period of time, he’ll probably find himself in Syracuse, with Jose Bautista playing in his place. Another area to watch is second base, where Aaron Hill will try to keep his job in the face of Joe Inglett’s impressive 2008 campaign. Other than these side-stories, there just isn’t a ton to be excited about here, given the lack of power threats. I like Vernon Wells as much as anyone, but he’s not the guy you build a lineup around.
Offense Grade: C+
Defensively, the Jays are very solid in several areas (3B, RF, 2B), but have gigantic question marks in LF (Travis Snider is known as a no-glove sort of player) and CF (Vernon Wells lost a step last season). Marco Scutaro is surprisingly decent at SS, having the second best UZR/150 among AL shortstops with at least 400 innings last season. If a healthy Vernon Wells can somehow manage to cover the ground he once did pre-2008, the Jays will be decent up the middle and at the corners…with the exception of LF. Most teams punt defense in LF these days, so I won’t really hold it against them.
Fielding Grade: B
If J.P. Ricciardi is finally canned after what will probably be described as a disappointing 8-year tenure akin to the one we just witnessed on Pennsylvania Avenue, you can probably point to that rotation as his Waterloo. Two of his top 4 starters go down with severe injuries, and he summons the likes of Matt Clement and Mike Maroth, neither of whom have appeared in a MLB game in the past year? You’re telling me that Mr. Hockey (Tom Glavine) wouldn’t entertain the possibility of playing in Canada for a season? And it’s not like the offense couldn’t be improved. Adam Lind is penciled in at DH, but you can’t at least kick the tires on Adam Dunn?
In another division, the Jays might be viable. They have some upside in that rotation and at certain positions, but outside of Roy Halladay, there just isn’t anyone who strikes fear into the hearts of opponents. Snider could be that guy in 3 years, but at age 21, he’ll probably have growing pains. Toronto’s three main competitors all improved this offseason. Toronto did not. They will be playing nearly 60 games against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. They’ll win some, but lose most.
Overall Score: 64.8 (B-)
Just a point of correction…if Snider struggles this year in Toronto, he’ll find himself in Sin City actually. Syracuse finally kicked the Jays out of town after 30+ seasons and are now the AAA affiliate of Washington. The Jays were the loser in the musical chairs of AAA affiliate changes for 2009, getting stuck with Las Vegas for the next two seasons (with the Dodgers bolting town back to Albuquerque).
Thanks for the correction. Wow, talk about an inconvenient AAA location…
very thorough anaylsis of this team…pretty bang on in my estimation
points to consider:
possible trade of roy halladay; the utmost professional, never complains, excellent pitcher..but with this team probably not even contending, maybe time to trade him and get a package, before he possibly walks in a couple of years
we shed about 15 million in payroll with loss of burnette (good riddance really-watch him burn out in new york, with injuries), but never spent the savings on a guy like ramirez, or some other quality bat
until selig expands the playoffs, as he should, this team will never contend in such a demanding division, unless they get lucky like the rays (or lose a whole lot, and load up on first round picks for 10 years!)
thanks for your summary jimmy