San Diego Padres

2008 Pythagorean Record: 68-94
2008 Finish: 5th Place

Last year was not a pleasant one for San Diego.  The city saw its property values plummet and its baseball team finish in last place.  Everyone and their mothers predicted the San Francisco Giants to bring up the rear in the NL West last season, but somehow, some way, the Pads managed to edge them out for that dubious honor (and by “edge them out”, I mean they finished 7 games behind the Giants).

Is there a glimpse of hope on the horizon?  While it once seemed like a foregone conclusion that ace pitcher Jake Peavy would be traded away by the cash-strapped team, there might be a change of plans.  The team is in the process of being sold to a group of investors (spearheaded by ex-Manny Ramirez agent Jeff Moorad), and the new owners will likely not be in a rush to gut the franchise of its premier talent, especially a 28-year-old ace pitcher.  Now that Peavy will likely be San Diego’s opening day starter, let’s take a glimpse at the rotation:

Projected Rotation:

1) Jake Peavy
2) Chris Young
3) Cha Seung Baek
4) Josh Geer
5) Kevin Correia

If Peavy stays, the Padres will have a bona fide #1 guy entering his prime, and he’ll be a solid bet to provide at least 180 top-notch innings.  Chris Young missed a bunch of time after getting drilled off the ol’ coconut by a laser beam off the bat of Albert Pujols, but appears to be healthy for 2009.  He’s held hitters to a .224 batting average over his career, and will be effective if healthy (Bill James is predicting a 3.37 ERA over 153 innings).  After Young, things appear to fall apart.  Cha Seung Baek is a league-average guy who keeps the ball in the strike zone but won’t blow anyone away (5.92 K/9 over his career), and the final two sports in the rotation are wide open.  There has been a Mark Prior sighting in San Diego’s spring camp, and he is reportedly throwing.  Since the guy hasn’t worn a game jersey in 2 years, I’ll put the burden of proof on him and keep Correia penciled in the 5th spot (although there will be other candidates: Cesar Carrillo, Chad Reineke, Jae Kuk Ryu, Wade LeBlanc, and Cesar Ramos).  If Jake Peavy is actually traded, this rotation will be in “F” territory.

Rotation Grade: C-

The bullpen will be without a very familiar face, as legend and future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman swaps his surfboard for a home-brewing kit, joining the Milwaukee Brewers.  How does the pen look without him?

Projected Bullpen:

Heath Bell (CL)
Cla Meredith
Mike Adams
Justin Hampson
Mark Worrell
Chris Britton
Jae Kuk Ryu

As much as I hated the Mirabelli for Bard/Meredith swap, I will concede that Cla Meredith is not really the guy you want to hand the 8th-inning to.  But, until Mike Adams returns from injury, he’ll have that responsibility.  Heath Bell was mediocre in the closer’s role last season, but given how he handled himself in 2007 (200 ERA+ in 94 innings), we can probably expect an improvement there.  GM Kevin Towers has made some interesting bullpen acquisitions in the form of Ryu and Worrell, but neither of these guys have much of a MLB track record.  Petco Field is a pitcher’s park, so this bullpen might get the bounces they need in certain situations, but there is a serious lack of depth here.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Offensively, Padres fans were treated to the emergence of one of the better first basemen in baseball, as Adrian Gonzalez played all 162 games, swatted 36 home runs, and hit .279/.361/.510 while making the All-Star team.  Brian Giles had an interesting year, vetoing a trade to the Red Sox and being caught on tape belting his ex-girlfriend, all while hitting .306/.398/.456 at age 37.  Giles will be sticking around San Diego, as will just about their entire 2008 offense with the exception of Khalil Greene.

Projected Lineup:

RF – Brian Giles
CF – Jody Gerut
1B – Adrian Gonzalez
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF – Chase Headley
2B – Chris Burke
SS – David Eckstein
C – Nick Hundley

Bench:
Cliff Floyd – OF/1B
Louis Rodriguez – INF
Scott Hairston – OF
Henry Blanco – C
Engar Gonzalez

Unfortunately for San Diego, two of their three best performers from 2008 are solid bets to regress in 2009.  Jody Gerut hasn’t played a full season since 2004, and Brian Giles is 38 and has off-field problems.  Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff both have high-upside and could be a decent 3-4 combo, but the rest of the lineup is a little flimsy.  Those last 5 spots in the batting order could put some genuine hate into the hearts of the usually laid-back San Diego residents.  The one spot up in the air here is 2B, where Chris Burke will compete with a couple of other guys this spring, including prospect Matt Antonelli.

Offensive Grade: D+

Fielding Projection:

The data indicates that Jody Gerut played a fine CF last season, 3 years removed from Major League baseball.  I’ll defer to the numbers in this case as assume he’ll be at least serviceable next season.  Brian Giles has been solid since moving to RF.  However, those are the only real bright spots on the diamond.  Eckstein has the range you’d expect of a garden gnome at SS, and both Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez are…hitters, in the purest sense of the word.

Fielding Grade: D

This is definitely a team in full-fledged rebuilding mode.  In San Diego, there are lots of things you can do to keep your mind off of baseball.  Thank God for that.

Overall Score: 41.8 (D+)

Next up: the defending champs!

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