Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Pythagorean Record: 93-69
2008 Finish: 1st Place, World Series Champions

From the point of view of this Red Sox fan, the Phillies are like an older brother. An older brother who has a coke habit, receives unemployment checks, and is in and out of jail.  While you came up from poverty and graduated medical school, you felt some bittersweet remorse for your brother who just couldn’t seem to get it right, just couldn’t find success the way that you did.

Well, last October, things finally came together for our NL brethren.  The World Series victory was nice to see, not just for the reason mentioned above, but for another reason entirely.  How does the saying go…”the enemy of my enemy is my friend”?  Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays have bumped themselves up on our collective shit list, and watching the Cinderella Story get torn to shreds on national television was nothing short of orgasmic.  Even when the team trotted out one of the Hall & Oates guys to bleat the national anthem, my support did not waiver.  That’s dedication, folks.

So, is the 2009 squad built for a repeat?

Projected Rotation:

1) Cole Hamels
2) Joe Blanton
3) Brett Myers
4) Jamie Moyer
5) Kyle Kendrick

The Phillies will essentially feature the same rotation as last year.  Hamels is one of the best young pitchers in the game.  At age 25, he has never had a season in his professional career that wasn’t excellent.  The one issue you have to keep an eye on is his durability.  Hamels was plagued by injuries throughout his minor league career (but when he was healthy, he racked up a combined 1.43 minor league ERA).  He hasn’t had much of a problem yet in his brief Major League career, but after tossing 228 innings last year, who knows how his arm will react?  Joe Blanton and Brett Myers are both league average guys with solid durability, which brings us to Jamie Moyer.  Jamie is now 46.  Unreal, right?  I only vaguely remember when this guy pitched for the Red Sox, because it was so goddamn long ago.  Eventually, the laws of physics and biology will take their course on him; at this point we are just waiting for that shoe to drop.  The 5th spot in the rotation belonged to Kendrick last season and he’s the favorite to retain that role, but he’ll get some competition from veteran Chan Ho Park and prospect Cesar Carassco.

It’s odd (and not at all something I intended) that the three teams I’ve projected so far have similar rotations. Terrific #1 starters, a couple of league average guys in the middle, and gaping question marks in the back.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Brad Lidge
Ryan Madson
Chad Durbin
Scott Eyre
Clay Condrey
Chan Ho Park
Adam Eaton

J.C. Romero will serve his 50 game suspension, so I’ll leave him out of this analysis.  Philly’s bullpen came up huge last season, with a 3.22 ERA in 483 innings of relief.  The good news is that most of those guys will return in 2009.  The bad news is it’s extremely questionable that Ryan Madsen, Chad Durbin, and Clay Condrey can repeat their 2008 success (144, 152, 134 ERA+, respectively).  The middle relief trio only struck out 6.17 guys per 9 innings collectively.  However, at worst, these guys are above-average relievers.  Closer Brad Lidge seems to have returned to his pre-2005 levels of dominance.  Park and Eaton are both dubious MLB talents at this stage of their careers, but their impact will be mitigated if they happen to pitch unreasonably poorly out of the gate.

Bullpen Grade: B

Projected Offense

1) Jimmy Rollins – SS
2) Shane Victorino – CF
3) Chase Utley – 2B
4) Ryan Howard – 1B
5) Raul Ibanez – LF
6) Jayson Werth – RF
7) Pedro Feliz – 3B
8) Carlos Ruiz – C

Bench:

Matt Stairs – OF
Geoff Jenkins – OF
Ronny Paulino – C
Greg Dobbs – 1B/3B
Eric Bruntlett – 2B/SS

It’s odd that the Phillies won a trophy in a season where the face of their franchise, Jimmy Rollins, had an off-year.  Most projections love him for 2009, including PECOTA (.293/.360/.458 in 651 PAs, 36 steals).  The 3/4 combo of Howard and Utley might be the best in the National League, as both guys could be legitimate MVP candidates.  The bottom of the lineup is OK, but the4re should be enough firepower at the top to score runs in 2009.  The one concern here is the substitution of Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell, who will play for the Tampa Bay Rays this year.  Ibanez’s addition will make the heart of Philly’s order very left-handed, and thus vulnerable to LOOGY-ism late in the game.  Also, Ibanez will be 37 in June, so a drop in production in possible.  The team does have the benefit of a good, experienced bench, which is always helpful in the NL.

Offensive Grade: B+

Fielding Projection:

The middle infield combo of Rollins and Utley is not only excellent offensively, but defensively as well.  Both guys led the National League in UZR last season at their respective positions.  Shane “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Victorino assumed full-time CF duties for the first time in his MLB last year, and did the job very well.  Pedro Feliz and Jayson Werth are also among the best fielders at their positions, and the gargantuan Ryan Howard is surprisingly average at first base.  The only area where Philly is weak is in LF, where Ibanez doesn’t have much mobility at all.  But, as I mentioned in the Blue Jays preview, shoddy defense in LF has become the norm in modern MLB baseball.  Overall, this team is excellent defensively.

Defensive Grade: A-

It looks like a team that will contend, but the sum of the parts doesn’t really scream “Championship” to you, does it?  The only major change from 2008 to 2009 is swapping Ibanez for Burrell, which is probably a net loss.  The rotation isn’t very promising outside of the #1 starter, and the bullpen probably overperformed in 2008.  The team was a bit too complacent in the off-season.  They could have really used another starting pitcher, and their solution came in the form of a scrap heap acquisition (i.e. Chan Ho Park).  I’ll be pulling for them to edge out their rivals from Queens, but the odds are not in their favor.  

Overall Grade: 73.5 (B)

Next: we’ll be visiting a city known for great BBQ, and a team with some high-profile fans in the baseball writing community.

Comments are closed