As we await A-Rod’s 1 PM press conference, where he will undoubtedly give the public the incontrovertible truth surrounding his illegal performance-enhancing drug abuse ($1,000 says he will take a page out of Andy Pettitte’s playbook and blame it on an injury), let’s take a look at the oldest professional franchise in major American sports.

Projected Rotation:

1) Edinson Volquez
2) Aaron Harang
3) Bronson Arroyo
4) Johnny Cueto
5) Homer Bailey

Everybody loves the Josh Hamilton story, but let’s not forget who he was traded for: a 24-year-old starter who won 17 games, struck out 9.46 hitters per game, and made the All-Star team.  Most projections have Edinson Volquez regressing in 2009, but as long as he keeps those strikeout totals high, he should be able to avoid the long-ball problem which plagues so many pitchers at the Great American Ball Park.  The rest of the rotation is set in stone, with the exception of the 5th spot.  I’d say it’s 50/50 whether Micah Owings or Homer Bailey gets the nod.  I’ll give Bailey the nod, since he still has a very high ceiling whereas Owings does not.  Besides, Owings is a career .319/.355/.552 hitter and might be useful in the bullpen, where he could pinch hit AND pitch.  Volquez and Cueto are both live arms with lots of upside, and Arroyo and Harang are hardened veterans who will throw strikes and be average pitchers at worst.  The major X-factor will be Bailey, who looked more like a bust last season.

Rotation Grade: C+

Projected Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero (CL)
Arthur Rhodes
David Weathers
Mike Lincoln
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Micah Owings

Cordero isn’t young anymore, but should be at least serviceable in the closer’s role as his K rate stays high enough.  Rhodes and Weathers have both experienced that all-too-familiar career arc: the mid 30′s bullpen renaissance.  Weathers has been more consistent and durable than Rhodes, but both guys should be considered risks at this point in their life cycles.  The rest of these guys (Lincoln, Bray, Burton) have had varying degrees of success in their brief MLB careers, but none of these guys are known for terribly overpowering stuff.  This bullpen could get ugly if those veteran set-up guys can’t hold it together.

Bullpen Grade: C-

Projected Offense:

1) Willy Taveras – CF
2) Edwin Encarnacion – 3B
3) Jay Bruce – RF
4) Joey Votto – 1B
5) Brandon Phillips – 2B
6) Ramon Hernandez – C
7) Alex Gonzalez – SS
8) Jerry Hairston – LF

Bench:

Jaques Jones – OF
Chris Dickinson – OF
Jeff Keppinger – INF
Ryan Hanigan – C
Daryle Ward – 1B

The meat of the order in Cincinnati will be a fun one to watch, as both Bruce and Votto have the potential to emerge as premier hitters in the National League.  However, the loss of Adam Dunn still hurts.  With all of his flaws (offensively and defensively) one cannot describe the difference in production between Dunn and the likes of Jerry Hairston or Jaques Jones.  Other than the gaping crater in left field, the rest of the lineup should be solid.  Willy Taveras might steal over 70 bases under the direction of aggressive manager Dusty Baker.

Offense Grade: B-

Fielding Projection:

The Reds have a good middle infield, assuming the reports on Gonzalez’s fully-healed knee are accurate.  At the corners, the team is weak.  Jay Bruce has a rough year defensively, but he could improve with more experience, as could Joey Votto.  We don’t really know who will be playing in LF for the Reds, and Encarnacion is a poor defensive 3B.  Taveras, with all of his speed, doesn’t cover as much ground as you might expect.

Fielding Grade: C

This team is similar to Kansas City; some promising young starters and a lot of upside in the middle of the lineup.  Unlike KC, the Reds find themselves in a very strong division, and I think their bast-case scenario is a 3rd place finish.  A worst case scenario (Bruce, Votto, or Volquez experience sophmore slumps, Bailey doesn’t pan out) would find them in the cellar.

Overall Grade: 61.25 (C+)

Next up: the birthplace of Ebonics. 

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