Oakland Athletics 2009 Team Preview
Red Sox spring training camp has been the joyous Sea of Tranquility we’ve all expected. Every single player on the roster is in the best shape of his career. Mike Lowell can crush cinder blocks with hips, like nutcrackers with an almond. David Ortiz’s wrist is as sinewy as a cord of lumber. Julio Lugo has put on 50 pounds of pure muscle with an offseason diet of black beans and 12-grain bread. And his cousin wasn’t doing the shopping for him, either.
Oh, right, there was a public media spat between Sox pitcher Brad Penny and MLB Network hobgoblin Larry Bowa, a bit of tension carrying over from their LA days. This isn’t a surprise; Penny is known as an easygoing fellow, while Larry Bowa is the textbook manifestation of the Napoleon Complex, just a puss-filled wart of a human being. Even so, Terry Francona had this to say: “I’m confident you won’t see the back and forth anymore with that”. Translation: Tito dropped the Hammer of Thor on Penny. I hope he’s OK.
Let’s see what Billy Beane has cooking in Oakland this year:
Oakland Projected 2009 Rotation:
1) Justin Duchscherer
2) Dana Eveland
3) Sean Gallagher
4) Dallas Braden
5) Gio Gonzalez
Duchscherer was on track for a Cy Young caliber season in 2008 before suffering a hip injury. Reports indicate that he should be ready to start on Opening Day, and while he probably won’t provide a sub-3 ERA all season long, he’s most likely the best starter in this rotation. Eveland could be league average if he throws strikes and keeps the ball down, but he’s not overpowering at all. Braden can be overpowering, but hasn’t thrown more than 150 innings in a season. I went to Stonehill College with 12 or 13 guys named Sean Gallagher, so maybe one of them pitches for the A’s now. I hope he can score me tickets. Gonzalez will compete for that 5th spot with Josh Outman (Trevor Cahill is a dark horse). As they usually are, the Oakland organization is stocked with young arms. The bad news is, the best of these arms are not ready for major league action: Cahill and Brett Anderson. These guys are probably a year away from having any sort of success at the MLB level, and the bulk of the starters penciled into this rotation do not have tremendous near-term upside.
Rotation Grade: D+
Oakland Projected 2009 Bullpen:
Brad Ziegler
Joey Devine
Jerry Blevins
Russ Springer
Michael Wuertz
Santiago Casilla
Josh Outman
Gone is closer Huston Street, packaged to Colorado for big bopper Matt Holliday. Even so, the Oakland bullpen should be pretty good next year. Devine and Ziegler were both outstanding in 2008, finishing 6th and 8th in Al Rookie of the Year balloting respectively (pretty impressive for middle relievers). They combined to have a 0.85 ERA over 105.1 innings, only 2 HR’s allowed. Those numbers are unearthly and probably unrepeatable, but a competent projection would have both of these guys sitting in the 2.50 ERA range under normal circumstances. Blevins has averaged nearly 11 K/9 in his professional career, and should be a very solid setup man. Wuertz and Casilla are both league average at worst, and Russ Springer will be playing the role of the obligatory grizzled veteran in the pen. A couple of the hot prospects (along with Outman) could be utilized in long-relief roles. This is a bullpen with a bevy of live arms and high upside, albeit short on experience.
Bullpen Grade: B
Oakland Projected 2009 Offense
1) Ryan Sweeney – CF
2) Mark Ellis – 2B
3) Matt Holliday – LF
4) Jason Giambi – DH
5) Jack Cust – RF
6) Eric Chavez – 3B
7) Kurt Suzuki – C
8) Daric Barton – 1B
9) Bobby Crosby – SS
Bench:
Travis Buck – OF
Rob Bowen – C
Rajai Davis – OF
Cliff Pennington – IF
Jack Hannahan – IF
This is a very Oakland-esque lineup isn’t it? A bunch of big free-swingers. Not one base stealer in the bunch (with the exception of Davis on the bench) but plenty of power and plate discipline. Matt Holliday should be one of the best hitters in the American League. PECOTA wants to have his children, predicting him to hit .327/.403/.568 in his new environment. There’s a lot of versatility between DH, 1B, and RF, as Cust, Giambi, Buck, and Barton will all share at bats. Barton has the most upside of the group, and if he breaks out he’ll nail down the permanent 1B job. Eric Chavez and Mark Ellis are both wildcards who have been hurt and ineffective of late. If they return to form, Oakland will turn some heads in the early going. We’ve been waiting 5 years for Bobby Crosby to turn into Cal Ripken III, and at this point it probably won’t happen. However, with the power and on-base abilities of the rest of this lineup, he shouldn’t drag down the offense too much.
Offensive Grade: B
Oakland 2009 Fielding Projection:
Intuitively, you’d think Oakland would be a poor defensive team due to the fact that their lineup resembles the Braintree Fire Department softball team. However, that isn’t really the case at all. The only big question mark is whether Ryan Sweeney can handle the transition from RF to CF in lieu of the departure of Carlos Gonlzalez. Nearly everyone else there (especially the infield) is solid with the glove. Matt Holiday isn’t the butcher you’d expect him to be. Jack Cust isn’t a good defender, but Travis Buck is…and Buck might actually see more time in RF.
Defensive Grade: B
This team would be scary if not for their lackluster rotation. Duchscherer could be an ace, but we have to expect him to regress from his monster 2008 season. The rest of those arms, some promising but some not, could easily get knocked around in a tough American League. The trade of Rich Harden is looking like a questionable move at this point (assuming they could have shipped someone other than Matt Murton for Matt Holliday this offseason). Maybe their rotation will prove me wrong.
Overall Grade: 63.8 (B-/C+)
Next up: we’re going fishing. (Sails, not tails)
Jimbo,
I think that this year’s A’s will be a pleasant surprise. Injuries killed their hot start last year, and they have lots of youth that will be better served with one more year of experience.
As far as the Cust/Giambi/Buck/Barton 1B/RF/DH carousel is concerned, I’m thinking that Travis Buck or Jack Cust will be the odd man out. Giambi is going to end up at DH because his glove is so god-forsaken horrible. Hopefully Barton had the appropriate surgery to remove his head from his ass because, if he doesn’t hit early and often, he’ll be sent down quickly. Cust is almost as bad in RF as Giambi is at 1B, but he provides the thump that the lineup needs. He’s essentially a younger Giambi. And the most unfortunate thing about the whole situation is that all of these guys bat left-handed, killing the chance for platoon.
Anyway, for the first time in a few years, I’m holding out hope that the A’s can really challenge, wire to wire, for the division because the Angels certainly have not gotten better.
Thanks for chiming in Lou, you’re more familiar with these guys than I am.
Yeah, I can see them competing. I’m not really impressed with Anaheim, and Texas & Seattle aren’t ready yet. Even with my bearish view of their rotation, they’re the 2nd best AL West team on paper. If a couple of those guys break through, they could win the division.
Jim, keep up the good work. I’m sure you aren’t being paid enough. Any Sox blog would be lucky to have you.
Jim, I second sexy Lou’s emotion. You could be writing with Messrs. Neyer and Law.
I agree, their starting rotation will be wildly inconsistent putting much stress on the bullpen. But, they’ll probably score some runs until they trade Matt Holliday in July.
No way the A’s can afford to leave Cust out of the lineup. He’s been their best offensive player two years running, and his team-leading walks will be even more valuable with someone like Cabrera behind him.
If they don’t DH him, they’ll put him in the OF and put up with his awful defense.
The J.C. giveth, and he taketh away…. but he always giveths a little bit more! Haha!