Supposedly the Academy Awards are being distributed as I type this.  I’m not watching, but I’m willing to bet my mortgage that Heath Ledger will posthumously win the award for Best Supporting Actor.  Now, I did see the Dark Knight and I thought it was well done, and Ledger was probably at least as good as Jack Nicholson was in the same role years ago.  However, I’ve been wondering…how hard is it to play a crazy guy, to produce a gravelly voice and laugh frantically and wear makeup and act like a psychopath?  I contend that it’s relatively easy for trained actors to do that sort of thing, yet it’s these types of roles that draw the most attention.  I guess the point I’m trying to make is this: if this guy didn’t eat a bunch of pills and off himself, do we really think he’d win an Oscar for his role as “The Joker”?  Something to ponder.

On to our next team.

Florida Marlins
2008 Pythagorean Record: 81-81
2008 Finish: 3rd place, NL East

2009 Projected Rotation:

1) Ricky Nolasco
2) Josh Johnson
3) Anibal Sanchez
4) Andrew Miller
5) Chris Volstad

A couple of nights ago I was watching the MLB Network, and Harold Reynolds was on with a few other guys.  He was talking about teams with good rotations, and claimed that Florida might have the best front three in the game.  My initial thought after hearing this was that Harold must have licked a brightly-colored South American toad before the broadcast.  But then I realized that Reynolds probably misspoke, he was most likely talking about Tampa Bay.

The main problem with Florida’s rotation isn’t the inexperience (although that is a problem), it’s that 4 of these guys are injury risks, and the one guy who isn’t (Volstad) is 22-years-old and one year removed from High-A ball.  Nolasco was Florida’s best starter in 2008, but pitched only a handful of innings in 2007.  Miller, Johnson, and Sanchez were all hurt at some point in 2008.  They are reportedly healthy now, but if one or more of these guys go down in 2009, there isn’t much in the way of depth to replace them.  Florida has drawn buckets of talent from their prospect well very early as they are prone to do, and now there isn’t much left down there.  If I were grading this group on upside they might get an “A”.  Unfortunately, I have to consider how well I think they’ll fare in 2009 alone.

Rotation Grade: D

2009 Projected Bullpen:

Matt Lindstrom (CL)
Leo Nunez
Scott Proctor
Reynel Pinto
Logan Kensing
Taylor Tankersley
Jose Ceda

The hard-throwing Lindstrom inherits the closer’s role from Kevin Gregg (traded to the Cubs), and he’ll be set-up by newcomers Leo Nunez and Scott Proctor.  Kensing, Pinto, and Tankersley are all younger guys who’ve have had control problems in their MLB careers.  Lindstrom is a true talent and there’s some upside among the younger kids, but the macro picture of this bullpen looks like a scattered mess of flotsam and jetsam.  Scott Procter?  Ugh.

Bullpen Grade: D+

2009 Projected Offense:

1) Cameron Maybin – CF
2) Jeremy Hermida – RF
3) Hanley Ramirez – SS
4) Dan Uggla – 2B
5) Cody Ross – LF
6) Jorge Cantu – 3B
7) John Baker – C
8) Gaby Sanchez – 1B

Bench:

Dallas McPherson – 3B
Wes Helms – 1B
Alfredo Amezaga – CF/SS/2B
Luis Gonzalez – OF
Mike Rabelo – C

Gone are Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, and in their place are two rookies who have not played a single game in AAA.  Maybin and Sanchez were both decent in AA (.277/.375/.456 and .314/.404/.513 respectively) but it will be difficult for them to perform at even league average levels out of the gate.  To be fair, I would have applied that same prognosis to Hanley Ramirez in the spring of 2006, and it would have looked rather foolish now.  Hey, Florida likes ‘em young.  Sometimes it actually works out.

As a whole, the lineup is decent.  Ramirez is terrific of course, Uggla is one of the best offensive second basemen in the game, and Hermida, Ross, and Baker are all above average offensive players at their positions.  I’m not entirely sold on the Jorge Cantu renaissance, but if the Bad Jorge shows up in 2009, the Fish do have Dallas McPherson available (.275/.379/ .618 in the PCL last year).

Offensive Grade: B-

2009 Fielding Projection:

It’s always difficult to analyze the defense of rookies.  Not a ton of defensive analysis is published from the minor league levels, but the folks at www.minorleaguesplits.com at least give it a try.  However, sometimes there are problems with inconsistency (just as there are with the MLB fielding data I reference from time to time).  According to the above website, Cameron Maybin was great defensively in 2006, terrible in 2007, and just about average in 2008.  We do know that he’s very quick and thus would probably cover lots of ground, so we’ll assume he’s at least average in CF in 2009.  The other two outfielders are above average.

The problem is Florida’s infield.  The left side of that infield might be the worst in the Major Leagues, and Uggla’s not exactly Johnny Evers himself.

Defensive Grade: D+

The Marlins were one of the more surprising teams in baseball last year, and would have received much more national love were it not for their bottom-feeding cousins from across the peninsula.  Larry Beinfest continues to face the challenge of maintaining talent while working with a microscopic budget and a non-existent fan base.  As they always do, the Fish are counting on the performances of several players who would still be in the minor leagues were they in different organizations.

At the very least, the explosive lineup will cause a stir among the handful of fans at Dolphins Stadium.

Overall Grade: 51.7 (C/C-)

Next Up: Ground Control to Major Tom, Your 3 through 5 Starters are Awful, There’s Something Wrong, Can You Hear Me Major Tom…Can You Hear Me Major Tom…

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