Houston Astros 2009 Team Preview
Sometimes, I think about the Houston Astros, and I get a little depressed. I was a child of the late 1980′s, and nothing represented the 1980′s better than the old Astros “stripe” uniform. So, thinking about the Astros will inevitably get me thinking about that uniform, which in turn gets me thinking about carefree, innocent times. Uniforms sure are different these days. Everything is in shades of gray. Streamlined, safely devoid of character and innovation. Spawned from lemming focus groups with the purpose of selling to everyone while offending no one. The “stripe” uniforms are never coming back, and neither are those carefree days. If the world economy does eventually collapse, maybe I’ll think about that orange and red stripe and smile for a moment.
2009 projected rotation:
1) Roy Oswalt
2) Wandy Rodriguez
3) Brian Moehler
4) Mike Hampton
5) Brandon Backe
Oswalt, a 3-time All-Star and future Hall of Famer (barring catastrophic injury) will anchor a very thin rotation. Oswalt himself will be 32 in August and posted the lowest ERA+ of his 8 year career in 2008 (although still very good -120). Rodriguez had himself a career year at age 29 last season, as his K rate has gradually risen in each year he’s been in the league. Now that he’s 30, we should at least expect some sort of normalization to that trend.
One we get past Rodriguez…wait for it…wait for it…”Houston, we have a problem!”. Ha! Yes, I said it. I was up all night trying to figure out how I could work that line into the analysis, and I just went for it, you know? But, seriously though, the back-end of that rotation is pretty terrible. I’ll throw one more NASA analogy at you: relying at Mike Hampton to start 32 games is like trying to fly to the moon in a WWI-era biplane. Okay, I’m done.
Rotation Grade: D+
Projected 2009 Bullpen:
Jose Valverde (CL)
LaTroy Hawkins
Doug Brocail
Geoff Geary
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak
Chris Sampson
Valverde’s a decent swing-and-miss closer. One are where I feel the pen is a little shaky is the bridge from the young relievers to Valverde; Hawkins is 36 and Brocail will be 42 in May. If anything, there’s plenty of experience available to throw onto the field in late innings of tight ballgames, but can those guys really keep it up over a long season? Geary’s a guy with a career ERA+ of 123 and a ground ball rate near 50%. He’s only allowed 30 HRs in over 300 career innings between Houston and Philly, so he should continue to be decent in Enron…er…Minute Maid Park . Wright is a live arm with a high K rate and plenty of potential, and Sampson is your typical league-average long-man (he’ll most likely get some starts given the space shuttle explosion that is the rotation).
Bullpen Grade: B-
Projected 2009 Offense:
1) Kaz Matsui 2B
2) Hunter Pence RF
3) Lance Berkman 1B
4) Carlos Lee LF
5) Miguel Tejada SS
6) Geoff Blum 3B
7) J.R. Towles C
8) Michael Bourn CF
Bench:
Humberto Quintero C
Aaron Boone INF
Darin Erstad OF
Jason Michaels OF
Edwin Maysonet SS
An outstanding lineup up top, but not a lot of offensive support in the bottom half. A key to Houston’s success will be the health of guys like Lee and Tejada, because that bench is incredibly thin. To get an idea of just how thin Houston’s reserve pool is, Baseball Prospectus is predicting that Koby Clemens (Roger’s 22-year-old son, has yet to reach Double-A) will make an appearance on the MLB roster at some point in 2009. Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game and he will be surrounded by run-producers, so Houston should score quite a few runs despite the lackluster 6-7-8 hitters in this lineup.
Offensive Grade: B-
Fielding Projection:
Miguel Tejada has been repeatedly panned by the baseball cognoscenti as one of those Jeter-esque “all-bat, no-glove” shortstops, but he actually did improve quite a bit in his first season in the NL. It’s odd that his defensive prowess is negatively correlated to his bat, and one might theorize that it is a loss in bulk leading to his extra mobility. Matsui, Blum, Bourn, and Pence are all slightly above-average fielders. Berkman and Lee are…good hitters.
Fielding Grade: C+
Despite a rotation which might be the thinnest in baseball, Houston does have some Cinderella potential given their powerful lineup and their versatile bullpen. Unfortunately, they are in that pesky 6-team division, and that rotation might be subjected to some serious abuse against the likes of Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. Even if they do find themselves contending in July, there’s not much hope for the Astros pulling off a mid-season trade for pitching, as their minor league system is very shallow.
Overall Grade: 58.6 (C+)
Next up: This team plays in my favorite MLB stadium (out of the 12 or so I’ve visited), but my least favorite neighborhood. A terrific stadium surrounded by a sea of squalor and neglect.
hi
nice to come accros this stuff