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By Jeff, 3/30/2009 1:38 pm

Baseball has been cursed (or blessed, you LaRussian ponce, you) with the existence of increasingly rigid bullpen roles ever since Dennis Eckersley was resurrected…about 20 years now.

In discussions of team construction, you often see guys listed according to role rather than effectiveness…Kevin Gregg was named the closer in Chicago over Carlos Marmol to much fanfare, which is funny to me because of how these discussions go. For example:
1. The last three outs are the most important of the game
2. Carlos Marmol is the better pitcher

Whatever…I digress. The point is that bullpens are stratified based on role. And after closer, and maybe setup (presumably the backup closer/8th inning guy), the most often bullpen role mention is the first lefty out of the pen, used to get a left handed hitter out who A. won’t get pinch hit for, and B. can’t hit lefties well.

Or as John Sickels called him, the lefty one out guy…LOOGY.

I defined a LOOGY, for the purposes of this exercise as:
1. Left handed (no shit)
2. Had at least 25 innings pitched
3. Their innings pitched wasn’t greater than 75% of their games pitched. This is to eliminate guys like Okijima, Jeremy Affeldt, and BJ Ryan who obviously weren’t used as LOOGY’s but might not have pitched an exact 1-1 ratio of games to innings.

This gave me 25 guys who you could say were LOOGYs last year.

Now, some teams might have cycled arms through the role last year (the Yankees come to mind here), but they were either prone to injury, or complete cannon fodder, so for the sake of argument, let’s say that if I say “NYY didn’t have a LOOGY last year” I mean they didn’t have one guy who performed in that role, not that they completely eschewed the role all together. Mmmkay?

Now, last year, your LOOGY was:
Left handed (25/25)
In the National League (19/25)
30 years old (16/25 were 30 or older)
Pitched essentially 2/3 of an inning per appearance (Actual: .70 ip/app)
Pitched in 42.7 innings last year (in other words, if you compressed their innings pitched into games, your average LOOGY pitched in the same amount of games as Joe Thurston played for the Red Sox last year)

Your LOOGY’s were (sorted by appearance):
Pedro Feliciano NYM NL
Will Ohman ATL NL
J.C. Romero PHI NL
Dennys Reyes MIN AL
Ron Villone STL NL
Scott Schoeneweis NYM NL
Wesley Wright HOU NL
Joe Beimel LAD NL
Javier Lopez BOS AL
Brian Shouse MIL NL
Trever Miller TBR AL
Jack Taschner SFG NL
Bill Bray CIN NL
Arthur Rhodes SEA/FLA NL
Jamie Walker BAL AL
Charlie Manning WSN NL
Boone Logan CHW AL
Neal Cotts CHC NL
Alex Hinshaw SFG NL
Doug Slaten ARI NL
Randy Flores STL NL
Royce Ring ATL NL
Jimmy Gobble KCR AL
Scott Eyre CHC/PHI NL
Mitch Stetter MIL NL

Now, I thought of this post when I was poking on BRef this morning and noticed two things about Javier Lopez. He only held the platoon advantage 47% of the time (AL average: 55%) and he generally wasn’t used in high leverage situations (aLI was .861).

LOOGY effectiveness against left handers isn’t of much interest to me, because these guys got their name to face lefties in high pressure situations, so I decided to take a look and see who was actually used that way (since Lopez wasn’t).

So, of the 25, I looked to see who held a platoon advantage (above league average, 55% for the AL, and 54% for the NL) AND had a aLI over 1.00. I did this to see which managers were using their lefties in a strategic manner at a time when strategy actually means something.

Our sample is 1. JC Romero had a platoon advantage 56% of the time, and an aLI of 1.538.

Now, there might be a bunch of reasons the other guys that had leverage’s over 1 (Arthur Rhodes, Randy Flores, Dennys Reyes, Pedro Feliciano, Jack Taschner, Joe Beimel, Brian Shouse, and Jamie Walker) didn’t pitch more. Maybe they had reverse split (but they were still used against lefties a lot, which would seem counter productive), or got their tits smoked by righties (which wouldn’t make sense, because they would have a platoon advantage more often). Or the platoon advantage was negated by the opposing manager calling for a PH.

I just can’t think of any reason they weren’t used more (at least that is rational to me).

Schoeneweis, and Welsey Wright were pretty close to the threshold, being just under 1, with PA’s of 54% and 58% respectively.

But Bray, Cotts, Ohman, Stetter, Villone, Eyre, Lopez, Logan, Ring, Miller, Manning, Hinshaw, Slaten, and Gobble litterally were paid money to perform a role (get lefties out at important part of the games) where:
1. Their managers refused to use them when the game was actually on the line
2. Their managers put them in a situation where they faced righties, because they couldn’t be trusted in a more important situation
3. In a low leverage situation, the opposing manager pulled a lefty hitter and pinch hit with a righty…neutralizing the defensive manager’s advantage.

What I suss out from this is that pitcher handedness is probably overrated in the bullpen, especially in controlling the platoon advantage. I’m sure there are a lot of situations where a lefty would be awesome, but they average out over the course of the year to non-important…at least when you consider the roster spot the LOOGY’s take up could be given to an extra hitter or a guy that can swipe some bags, or fly catch, or maybe pitch 80 innings or something rather than feed into a false scarcity of pitching.

Eight years after he mentioned how LOOGY’s just aren’t important (in the NBJHSA)…I got around to thinking Bill James might be right.

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By Jimmy,

Brad Wilkerson has left the team, supposedly on his own volition.  The veteran had not been formerly released or demoted, but he likely read the tea leaves (the “tea leaves” being his .119 batting average in 42 spring at-bats) and decided to proactively look for another team.

I’m actually grateful that he had as bad of a spring as he did; if he even played respectively, he probably would have made the team over the inexperienced Jeff Bailey and Chris Carter, and we’d be forced to watch him flounder through the first two months of the season.  Fortunately, his spring performance didn’t deceive anyone.

Now we look at the two remaining candidates:

Jeff Bailey: 45 spring at-bats, .356/.455/.600, 8 XBH, 8 K
Chris Carter: 64 spring at-bats, .359/.388/.703, 10 XBH, 7 K

Both guys are having monster springs.  Carter has flashed a bit more power, and Bailey has shown a bit more plate discipline.  This is a true Spring Training Battle, as we’re sitting here on March 30th and the decision has yet to be made.  Personally, I’d go with Bailey.  The fact that he’s a right-handed hitter and he plays a better first base makes him a slightly better fit.  Plus, I have long been a fan of his offensive game.

Either way, “Mission Accomplished”, I’d say.  I’ve been lobbying for one of these two guys to get a shot in spite of the Kotsay/Wilkerson acquisitions, and now it’s about to happen.  Sadly, Mark Kotsay is all but guaranteed to reclaim his spot and send the winner of this battle down to the minors again in May or so.  Hopefully, Kotsay will get a short leash, and won’t be around for long if he struggles.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/27/2009 4:01 pm

Being a fan of Seattle’s rich musical history, it pains me to see their baseball team stuck Down in a Hole.   This is a team that really Fell on Black Days last season, going from 88 wins in 2007 to 101 losses in 2008.  Is new GM Jack Zduriencik a Better Man than the last GM, or will he be forced to wear a Crown of Thorns?  We shall see.

2009 Projected Rotation

1) Felix Hernandez
2) Erik Bedard
3) Jarrod Washburn
4) Brandon Morrow
5) Carlos Silva

In a Nutshell, this is a rotation with some top heavy talent but serious injury risks.  King Felix Hernandez is turning 23 in April, and will have No Excuses; he should emerge as one of the top 3 or 4 starters in the American League.  Erik Bedard has the durability of a swatch of Corduroy, but is terrific when healthy.  Washburn and Morrow are both above average pitchers for their respective slots.  Silva’s an interesting case, and his 2009 performance is a true Superunknown.  Last year he was absolutely terrible, but he still has that pinpoint control which can keep the team in games.  If one of the starters is injured, Ryan Rowland-Smith will be a suitable replacement.

Rotation Grade: B

Projected 2009 Bullpen

Chad Cordero (CL)
David Aardsma
Miguel Batista
Roy Corcoran
Tyler Walker
Cesar Jiminez
Mark Lowe

This bullpen will leave many Mariners fans sitting in the Angry Chair.  Chad Cordero, their best reliever by far, is out until mid-May.  I’m rooting for old friend David Aardsma to win the interim closer role, but he’s not exactly Firpo Marberry, and it’s all really up in the air.  Miguel Batista is just terrible, walking more guys than he struck out last year.  Corcoran and Jiminez are both promising pitchers, but they aren’t really late-inning types at this point.

Bullpen Grade: D-

2009 Offensive Projection:

1) Ichiro Suzuki RF
2) Jose Lopez 2B
3) Adrian Beltre 3B
4) Ken Griffey Jr. DH
5) Yuniesky Betancourt SS
6) Russell Branyan 1B
7) Wladimir Balentien LF
8) Kenji Johjima C
9) Franklin Gutierrez CF

Bench:

Jeff Clement – C
Endy Chavez – OF
Ronny Cedeno – INF
Mike Morse – OF
Mike Sweeney – 1B/DH

The folks at Baseball Prospectus feel that superstar Ichiro Suzuki’s best days are in the Rearviewmirror, and that he’s destined for his first season without 200 hits or a .300 batting average.  Without his production, the Seattle offense could find themselves in the midst of a Hunger Strike.  Adrian Beltre, a solidly above-average third baseman whose 48 HR days are Far Behind, is likely their best hitter now.  Branyan is an intriguing sort of player; a guy who swings as hard as he can at a handful of pitches and hits one 500 feet on occasion.   All I Know is that this lineup will have Seattle pundits writing columns laced with Judgement, Rage, Retribution, and Thyme.  It could get ugly.

Offensive Grade: D

Fielding Projection:

If it Smells Like Teen Spirit in here, it’s because Seattle’s fielders are as nimble as 15-year-old female Olympic gymnasts.  Their outfield defense might be the best in the AL, and their infielders aren’t slouches, either.  A bright spot for a team with little to be optimistic about.

Fielding Grade: A

Playing in Safeco Field will be a double-edged sword for the Mariners this season.  They will prevent plenty of runs with their talented rotation and flashy gloves, but that offense will get about as much action as An Elderly Woman Behind The Counter in a Small Town.  If this team performs anything like they did last season (they’ll probably improve a bit, but they might not), manager Don Wakamatsu could quickly become the proverbial Man in the Box.

Overall Grade: 48 (C-)

Okay, sorry about all the grunge puns.  I’m sure they became tiresome after the second paragraph or so.  Never again, I promise.  Next up: Mannywood!

Comments (6)

By Jimmy,

A couple of days ago, I wrote a preview for the Milwaukee Brewers, and included Red Sox icon Trot Nixon on the roster as a reserve outfielder.  Well, the Brewers have other plans.  Trot was released by the team shortly after I posted the preview, leaving an uncertain future for the veteran outfielder.

It’s no secret that Trot was in the midst of a steep decline.  The type of decline that is uncomfortable and awkward for fans to witness, when we so clearly remember the player at his peak.   Red Sox management, as they have been prone to do on other notable occasions, cut ties with Trot just at the right time.  After struggling mightily for the Mets in 2008 (.171/.293/.286), he was hitting just .105 this spring.  The writing was on the wall, and Trot is now left to ponder his next step.

He has made it known that he’d still like to play for another team.  The question is: will the feeling be mutual?

If it is indeed the end of the line for the original “dirt dog” (a term beaten to death and used mostly ironically these days), a pint will be raised in honor of my favorite Trot moment: that HR off Clemens in 2000.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 3/25/2009 12:13 pm

Thinking about this team always gets me wondering about the following scenario:

Imagine you wake up tomorrow morning, pick up the Boston Globe or log onto SoSH or whatever your initial news outlet might be, and you see the following headline: “Selig, Henry Agree to Move Red Sox to National League”.  The article goes on to describe how Bud Selig proposed moving baseball’s most popular franchise to the NL for the purpose of increasing attendance in floundering NL East stadiums like Washington and Florida, and Selig/Lucchino agreed to the move because they despise the Yankees and do not wish to face them any longer, and the Red Sox will play in the National League starting in 2010.

How pissed would you be?  No more games against the hated Yankees or upstart Rays.  Enjoy your new rivalry with…the Mets?  Yawn.  Oh, and let’s not forget about the “Natural Rivalry” with the Atlanta Braves.  I cannot imagine what it must have been like for those Milwaukee Brewers fans who woke up one morning and learned that they would no longer be in the same division as New York, Boston, Cleveland and Detroit.

2009 Projected Rotation:

1) Yovanni Gallardo
2) Dave Bush
3) Manny Parra
4) Jeff Suppan
5) Braden Looper

Obviously, the rotation here will take a hit after losing two of the best pitchers in the game to free agency (assuming Ben Sheets doesn’t return).  However, they do get a boost from a healthy Yovanni Gallardo, a 23-year-old with the stuff of an ace.  After Gallardo, the guy I like best in this rotation is Manny Parra.  A stocky lefty with a 4-pitch arsenal, he’s been plagued by a high BABIP in both of his MLB seasons.  If he can command the ball a bit better, the Brewers could have a solid #2 on their hands.  Looper and Bush are decent ground ball guys who will keep the defense on their toes but should keep the Brew Crew in the game.  Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, is one of those cases where I’m shocked that he’s still in the major leagues (the Darren Oliver Effect).

Rotation Grade: C-

2009 Projected Bullpen:

Trevor Hoffman (CL)
Carlos Villanueva
Seth McClung
Mitch Stetter
David Riske
Todd Coffee
Tim Dillard
Chase Wright

Hoffman is a future Hall of Famer who should be able to provide one more year as a solid closer.  However, as with any player over 40, you have to be prepared for the wheels to fall off at any time.  Villanueva and McClung are both versatile guys who can start when needed, but it looks like Milwaukee plans to use them as late-inning relievers in the short term.  Stetter is the resident lefty on the staff, and will probably be utilized in a LOOGY role.  Dillard is the reliever with the most upside of this group, a 25-year-old with a hard fastball/slider combo.  Riske, Coffee, and Wright are all weak options.  (Wright’s claim to fame is yielding 4 straight home runs to the Red Sox while pitching for the Yankees).

Bullpen Grade: C-

2009 Projected Offense:

1) Richie Weeks – 2B
2) J.J. Hardy – SS
3) Ryan Braun – LF
4) Prince Fielder – 1B
5) Corey Hart – RF
6) Bill Hall – 3B
7) Mike Cameron – CF
8) Jason Kendall – C

Bench:

Tony Gwynn Jr. – OF
Trot Nixon – LF/RF
Craig Counsell – 2B/SS
Mike Rivera – C
Mike Lamb – 1B/3B

Top to bottom, it should be one of the best lineups in the NL. Braun and Fielder are two of the biggest run producers in the league.  Hart, Weeks, and Hardy are among the best at their positions offensively.  Cameron is above average, and Hall and Kendall should be average at the very least.  The bench leaves a bit to be desired, as I wouldn’t want any of those guys seing serious playing time (with the exception of promising backup catcher Mike Rivera), but most of the Milwaukee lineup is young and healthy.

Offensive Grade: B+

Fielding Projection:

The Milwaukee infield can be split up into two halves: the “good side” and the “bad side”.  Can you guess which one is the “bad side”? If you were to guess the side with the 270 pound man, you would be correct.  The outfield is just OK.  While Ryan Braun was a terrible, terrible third baseman, he’s only slightly below average in LF.  Cameron’s reputation as a Gold Glove outfielder proceeds itself, but he’s 36 years old and has been inconsistent of late.  Corey Hart is average in RF, but he’ll probably improve once he stops wearing his sunglasses at night.  Kendall is still solid despite his age.

Defensive Grade: C-

The Brewers will probably take a step back in 2009, a fate that can only be expected after losing two All-Star starting pitchers.  Gallardo’s return to the staff will mitigate the blow a bit, but if this team wants to return to the playoffs, they’ll need a 2004 Manny-Ortiz type performance out of Braun and Fielder.

Overall Grade: 63.5 (B-/C+)

Next up: We visit a region known for salmon, suicide, and an evil coffee empire.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 3/23/2009 2:07 pm

My apologies for the long delay between posts.  My skin is cracked and blistered from countless hours spent under the merciless sun of southwest Florida.  I can’t really complain, though. Anyway, let’s get right to it:

Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Jeremy Guthrie
2) Koji Uehara
3) Mark Hendrickson
4) Adam Eaton
5) Alfredo Simon

Guthrie and Uehara are both locks to open the year in the rotation, but those last 3 spots are really up in the air.  The Orioles have the promising Rich Hill rehabbing from injury, but chances are he won’t be ready in April.  David Pauley and Danys Baez are also in the mix.  As you can see, this rotation is a major weakness.  To put it quantitatively, the sum of the projected VORP for these 5 pitchers in roughly 450 projected innings (as determined by Baseball Prospectus) is less that the projected VORP of Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon in 60 projected innings.  The AL East is stocked with powerful lineups that will feast on these guys like hunger-crazed hyennas tearing apart a bloated hippo carcass.

Rotation Grade: F+

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

George Sherrill (CL)
Chris Ray
James Johnson
Jamie Walker
Dennis Sarfate
Matt Albers
Heyden Penn

The bullpen picture is a bit more promising than the rotation, as the late innings should be in decent shape in the hands of Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson.  Walker was once a decent bullpen guy, but had a terrible season in 2008 and is turning 37 in July.  The rest of the pen consists of mop-up guys who are not quite good enough to be starting pitchers…which is fine, since the rotation is a disaster and lots of long relief innings will be needed.

Bullpen Grade: C+

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Brian Roberts 2B
2) Adam Jones CF
3) Nick Markakis RF
4) Matt Wieters C
5) Luke Scott DH
6) Aubrey Huff 1B
7) Melvin Mora 3B
8) Felix Pie LF
9) Cesar Izturis SS

Bench:

Greg Zaun C
Ty Wiggington 1B/2B/3B
Ryan Freel SS/OF
Lou Montanez OF

Matt Wieters was born on the twenty-first day in May, in the Year of Our Lord nineteen hundred and eighty six.  When He emerged from the womb, he looked upon His world and saw that it was good.  He then unearthed a 270 foot sequoia and whittled it into his first baseball bat, for which He used to bash down the Berlin Wall at the age of three.  Throughout His adolescent years, he battled Satan’s evil hordes and drove them back to their underground lair of fire, in between punishing opposing Legion Ball pitchers and sending thousands of baseballs into orbit.  When He first donned catcher’s equipment, the local scribes dubbed this equipment “The Tools of Omnipotence”, for a bright glow could be seen emanating from them.  And they saw that it was good.  The Baltimore Orioles, realizing that great power can be dangerous as well as beneficial, have chosen to keep Him in the minor leagues for the time being.  Not unlike Frodo Baggins with “The One Ring”, Orioles management are hesitant to use Matt Wieters, in fear of the seductive lure of powerful abilities.  What if he falls into the wrong hands?  What then!?

Seriously, though, this lineup is interesting even without Wieters initially making the team.  Roberts and Markakis are both among the best at their respective positions.  Adam Jones has the potential to break out into superstar territory at some point, and Felix Pie also has a high ceiling.  Huff, Scott, and Mora are all above average offensive contributors.  The O’s also feature a solid bench, with the Crash Davis-like Zaun and the versatile Freel/Wiggington combo.

Offensive Grade: B-

2009 Fielding Projection:

Up the middle, the Orioles are strong.  Izturis and Jones are among the best fielders at their positions, and while Brian Roberts might be losing a step, he’s still better than average.  Wieters is a good defensive catcher by all accounts, as is Zaun.  The tandem of Markakis-Joes-Pie could be the best defensive outfield in the American League.  Melvin Mora isn’t the defensive abomination he once was, but neither he nor Aubrey Huff will be bringing home a Gold Glove.  Corner infielders notwithstanding, this is a nifty defensive team.  Thank God for that, or the team ERA might have found itself in John Wasdin territory.

Fielding Grade: B+

The Orioles have a handful of young guys who fans a reason to be hopeful.  Jones, Wieters, along with a couple of minor league pitchers might all be All-Star caliber players in two or three years.  When I calculated the overall grade, it was higher than I expected, mostly due to a boost from a decent bullpen and strong fielders.  A novel (yet difficult) short term goal for this team will be to avoid last place in baseball’s toughest division.

Overall Score: 52.5 (C)

Next up: the city known for mass-production of a product I often refer to as “Happy Juice”.

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By Jimmy,

According to a pretty good source, former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling has decided to retire from baseball.

You had to figure it was a strong possibility given how the past year has gone for #38, but the news still creates a stir of emotions and memories.  For brief period between 2004 and 2005, Schilling was easily the most worshiped figure in New England (even more so than that 2,000-year-old bearded dude).  Although he’s become more of a polarizing figure of late, he’s still a revered icon for the most part.  Rightfully so, I’d say.

So, the big question we now ask ourselves is: does Curt belong in the Hall of Fame?

Let’s first leave the post-season heroics out of the equation, and judge him solely on his cold, hard, regular season numbers.  Curt was a late bloomer, pitching out of the bullpen until age 25, having some inconsistent success in his mid-20’s, but not really making the leap into stardom until age 29.  Thus, his counting stats leave a little to be desired.

The top 10 most comparable pitchers, per Baseball Reference, are:

1. Kevin Brown
2. Bob Welch
3. Orel Hershiser
4. Freddie Fitzsimmons
5. John Smoltz
6. Milt Pappas
7. Don Drysdale
8. Dazzy Vance
9. Jim Perry
10. Catfish Hunter

Of this list, 3 guys are currently Hall of Famers (2 of whom are deserving of the honor), 1 active pitcher will be in Cooperstown, and 1 guy should eventually be in Cooperstown (but won’t make it, primarily due to his caustic personality).  In other words, Curt isn’t really a slam dunk in either direction.

However, some points in his favor:

- Curt’s ERA+ is better than that of the 3 Hall of Famers on the above list.
- Curt’s K/BB ratio (4.38) is the best of all time among qualified pitchers.  Read that again: Curt Schilling has the best strikeout to walk ratio in baseball history.  For reference, his ratio is slightly higher than the likes of Pedro Martinez and Mariano Rivera, two of the greatest pitchers ever to toe the rubber.

So, let’s say we’ll be conservative and call it a tie based on these quantitative factors.  If we can agree that it’s a tie, what would be the tie breaker?  You start moving into post-season records, intangibles, anecdotes.

In other words: I think he’s in.

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By Jimmy,

Just about done with Baltimore’s preview, I’ll post it later this morning.

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By Jimmy, 3/16/2009 8:45 am

My posting might be erratic this week, as I am on location down in Fort Myers.  I’ll try to get a couple of team previews done while I’m down here, along with some photos. 

A couple of quick things before I try to beat the traffic to Sanibel Island:

1) Clay Buchholz again looked terrific yesterday.  He’s really making the roster construction guessing game interesting. 

2) As I’m sure you’ve heard, Julio Lugo is hurt and will likely be out until May, which means that Angel Chavez and Nick Green will be fighting for a roster spot.  I’ll provide analysis on both guys in the very near future.

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By Jimmy, 3/13/2009 8:59 am

I thought I’d check in and see how some of the “uncertain role” guys are playing this spring.  Of course, there’s a very real chance that Terry Francona has already made up his mind as to exactly the type of role these guys will play in the early part of the season, in which case this is all an exercise in futility.  Either way, it’s more fun to believe that these guys are actually fighting for jobs, so I’ll proceed with that assumption.  At the very least, it will be interesting to see if these spring performances have any correlation with the players’ assigned roles in April.

Shortstop
Julio Lugo: 20 AB, .450/.478/.550
Jed Lowrie: 24 AB, .375/.407/.625

As one would expect, both of these guys appear to be going “balls to the wall”, so to speak.  Lowrie will become the team’s third baseman in the event that Mike Lowell morphs into Gary Gaetti circa 2000.  But, as of now, both guys appear to be gunning hard for that starting SS job.

OF/1B
Brad Wilkerson: 25 AB, .160/.222/.440
Jeff Bailey: 22 AB, .500/.577/.682
Chris Carter: 25 AB, .280/.333/.440
Jon Van Every: 20, AB .150/.217/.450

Wilkerson appears to be having serious trouble seeing the ball in the early going, with 11 Ks.

More later.

Comments (5)

By Jimmy, 3/12/2009 10:47 am

Projected 2009 Rotation:

Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Randy Johnson
Jonathan Sanchez

Oddly enough, the worst pitcher in this rotation is probably the guy who makes the most money.  Barry Zito’s one strength at this point is the ability to eat innings.  We’ve been waiting for him to recapture that magic he had 5 years ago in Oakland, but now that he’s turning 31 and his fastball is sitting at 85 MPH and he walks nearly as many guys as he strikes out, it’s time to accept that he’s not going to be any better than league average (and even hoping for league average is a stretch).

Tim Lincecum is now a baseball folk hero, and rightfully so. (”Hey, look! That short guy is good at stuff!”)  A reasonable analysis would predict at least a modest decline from his 10.5 K/9 Cy Young season in 2008, but we can still expect him to be among the top 5 pitchers in the NL.  Matt Cain is again a candidate to break out and join Lincecum at that same elite table, and Jonathan Sanchez might be the best #5 starter in the NL.

I won’t even waste time predicting what Randy Johnson will do this year.  He’s not human; he’s actually some sort of prehistoric bird, and thus is not subject to the same effects of age as you and me.  With his crazy pterodactyl muscles and joints, he could very well throw another 180 innings at the age of 45.  Even if he can’t, Noah Lowry provides some decent insurance.

Rotation Grade: A-

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Brian Wilson (CL)
Jeremy Affeldt
Bobby Howry
Jack Taschner
Alex Hinshaw
Keiichi Yabu
Noah Lowry

The addition of Affeldt and Howry help a thin bullpen. Brian Wilson is probably better than his 4.62 ERA last year (3.81 FIP), but he’s really just another guy among a group of mediocre relievers.  Taschner and Hinshaw both walk too many guys for my liking, and Yabu will be 40 this year.  The Giants do have future closer Sergio Romo waiting in the wings, but he’s not completely healthy at this point.

Bullpen Grade: D+

Projected 2009 Offense:

1) Randy Winn – RF
2) Edgar Renteria – SS
3) Fred Lewis – LF
4) Aaron Rowand – CF
5) Pablo Sandoval – 3B
6) Bengie Molina – C
7) Travis Ishikawa – 1B
8) Kevin Frandsen – 2B

Bench:

Nate Schierholtz – OF
Juan Uribe – 2B/SS
Rich Aurilla – 1B/3B
Stephen Holm – C
Eugenio Velez – IF/OF

There’s not really much to say.  My batting order is irrelevant; Bruce Bochy likes to bat Sandoval 3rd and Molina 4th.  The best hitter on the team is probably Schierholtz, wasting away on the bench.

Offense Grade: F+

Projected 2009 Fielding:

Sandoval is inexperienced at 3B, not to mention fairly obese, so I think I’m dubious of his abilities at that position.  Edgar Renteria, as you know, is no longer a good defensive shortstop.  I’m going to plead ignorance on the right side of that infield (Frandsen and Ishikawa, just not much statistically significant data available), so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume average gloves for both.  The outfield of Winn-Rowand-Lewis is pretty good, and Molina is still a decent backstop despite his age.

Defensive Grade: C+

When you hear people repeat those tired “PITCHING IS ALL THAT MATTERS” type platitutes, just point them in the direction of the 2009 San Francisco Giants.  This team has a terrific rotation, and yet, the odds of them making the playoffs are similar to the odds of Bernie Madoff being elected mayor of New York.

Overall Grade: 45.1 (C-)

Next up: A team the Red Sox will see plenty of.  Hopefully the Sox will be able to keep the Devil down in the hole.

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By Jimmy, 3/10/2009 9:53 am

This last position is one that may or may not exist.  It all depends upon the health of starter Brad Penny, who was diagnosed with “shoulder weakness” at the beginning of the spring.  Any mention of shoulder problems for a guy with Penny’s track record should be seen as a gigantic red flag, especially this early in the year.  So, let’s assume for a moment that Penny will begin the year on the disabled list.  We’ll also assume that the Red Sox plan on taking the standard 12 pitchers to Boston when camp breaks at the end of the month, and thus…there is one job opening here.

Healthy pitchers who are assured a MLB roster spot:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Justin Masterson
Jonathan Papelbon
Takashi Saito
Manny Delcarmen
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Javier Lopez

Now, the most interesting factor in this pitching staff is Justin Masterson, a guy who can be used in the bullpen or in the rotation.  He’s been used as a starter (i.e. “stretched out”) throughout this spring, so the odds are that he’ll get Penny’s rotation spot at the beginning of the season.

Assuming the Sox need a reliever, here are the candidates to take that final spot:

Wes Littleton – RHP
Pitches:
1. Fastball (87 MPH)
2. Slurve (74 MPH)
3. Change Up (76 MPH)
CHONE Projection: 3.93 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB
Notes: The favorite to win the job, based on experience.  An extreme ground ball pitcher; a 60% career ground ball rate.  Doesn’t allow many HRs.  3/4 arm angle is tough on righties, but can become batting practice to left-handed hitters.  Similar to Cla Meredith.

Hunter Jones – LHP
Pitches:
1. Fastball (90 MPH)
2. Slider (?)
CHONE Projection: 4.58 ERA, 7 K/9, 2 K/BB
Notes: He’s had a reverse split (better against right-handed batters) in the minor leagues, making him more useful than your typical lefty reliever.  Has yet to pitch in the majors, and his unorthodox delivery could present a temporary deception factor due to the lack of MLB scouting on him.  Better command, misses more bats than Littleton.

Billy Traber – LHP
Pitches:
1. Fastball (87 MPH)
2. Curveball (71 MPH)
3. Splitter (82 MPH)
4. Change Up (77 MPH)
CHONE Projection: 4.44 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.3 K/BB
Notes: Very good control, throws strikes.  Features 4 solid pitches.  Better against lefties than the other two candidates.  Gets ground balls.  Pitched for the Yankees last year, thus might be prone to sabotage or espionage, along with various other morally questionable acts.

As is the case with the other spring battles, I’ll be updating the progress of these guys periodically.  I can tell you that Littleton and Traber have both been getting absolutely lit up in the early going, while Hunter Jones has been outstanding.  However, the small sample size caveat applies to all three guys at this point.

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By Jimmy, 3/9/2009 9:21 am

You know you live in Somerville, Massachussets, when: it’s 60 degrees outside, you walk past a public field where a pick-up football game is underway, and at least 3 players are wearing Kangol derby hats.  Yes, that’s a true-life observation from yesterday afternoon.  The players had standard athletic wear, shorts, long sleeve Ts, sneakers…and derby hats.  And the most amazing thing about this scene was the firmness of the hats; these guys were scrambling, getting tackled, diving for passes, and those caps stayed attached to their skulls like Jeremy Piven’s wig.  I suppose the hats do add a little something to the intimidation factor.  Nothing says “I have something to prove, so don’t look at me the wrong way” like a derby hat.

Now that I’ve started this week in auspicious fashion by dusting off Jeff Foxworthy’s comedic template, let’s take a look at another position battle taking place in Fort Myers.

The Battle:

As I mentioned yesterday, the Red Sox will need at least 1 (maybe 2, depending on whether or nor Rocco Baldelli opens the year on the DL) backup OF/1B to make the team in the place of Mark Kotsay.  Now, I haven’t been shy about my feelings on Kotsay; I honestly think there are 2 or 3 players in camp who are better suited for his role.  Nonetheless, when he recovers from his injury he’ll a near lock to return to the major league roster.  Here are the candidates to serve as his placeholder for the first month of the season.

The Contestants:

Brad Wilkerson
Marcel Projection: .230/.313/.397
Notes: Has experience on his side.  Lauded for his clubhouse presence.  Can play CF in a pinch.  Has a resume similar to Kotsay’s.  Probably the favorite to win the job.

Chris Carter
Marcel Projection: .278/.349/.422
Notes: Could be the best hitter of the group, but is definitely the worst fielder.  Cannot play CF or RF in Fenway Park.  Passable at LF and 1B.

Jon Van Every
Marcel Projection: .262/.332/.412
Maybe the best all-around player in the group.  Decent in CF, but has not played any 1B.  Decent hitter.

Jeff Bailey:
Marcel Projection: .266/.345/.438
Very good hitter, probably good for a .800 OPS at the MLB level.  Can play both corner OF positions as well as 1B.   He’d be my pick to take this spot, but he’s not on the 40-man roster and is thus a long shot.

Next – the bullpen.

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By Jimmy, 3/6/2009 9:45 am

Most of the Red Sox roster spots are etched in adamantine, as they usually are for a team with one of the highest budgets in the game.  However, there is a little uncertainty over 1) who will be tabbed the starting shortstop when camp breaks, 2) who will get to hold Mark Kotsay’s place while the Erstadesque veteran recovers from his injury, and 3) what the back-end of the bullpen will look like.  Lets take a peek at the contestants, and keep track of how they perform later on this spring. The caveat, of course, is that spring training stats rarely correlate to regular season stats.  However, when a manager/GM needs a deciding factor to choose a player from a group of similarly-skilled individuals, spring training stats can make the difference between a fringe player making the roster or going to AAA.  As Red Sox fans, we’re unfamiliar with this concept, since the positions here are usually taken by January.

The Battle: Shortstop

This is a battle for a starting job, as both contestants are already guaranteed spots on the MLB roster when camp breaks.  If there were a fan vote, Jed Lowrie would trounce Julio Lugo like Reagan vs. Mondale.  How are they projected to play this season?

The Contestants:

Julio Lugo
Marcel Projection: .252/.320/.360
2008 Defense: -3.0 UZR/150 games

Lugo’s struggles in the early part of the season made him persona non grata with the fans, although he wasn’t really as bad the fan consensus seems to portray; he was only slightly below average defensively, he reached base at a better clip than all shortstops in the AL not named Jeter, and he was a threat on the basepaths.  Now, I’ve seen some recent pictures of Julio, and at the risk of sounding like a Kool-Aid slurper, he does look like he’s in better shape than usual.  He isn’t sporting the “starving child” look that he had the past few seasons.  I’ll get to see him in person in about a week, so I’ll let you know whether or not the photo I saw was deceiving me.

Jed Lowrie
Marcel Projection: .268/.345/425
2008 Defense: 25.9 UZR/150 games

Lowrie impressed fans with his steady defense and plate discipline after replacing the injured Lugo in 2008.  He’s the favorite to come away with the starting job, and if I had to make a decision right now, Lowrie would definitely be my guy.  There have been rumblings that Lowrie’s versatility (ability to play 2B, 3B, SS) might pigeon-hole him into inheriting the Alex Cora utility role, but I’m not buying it; Julio Lugo could play those positions too.

Every 5 days or so, I’ll post an update on how these guys are playing this spring.

Next up (maybe later this afternoon): the Bench OF/1B battle.

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By Jimmy, 3/2/2009 2:07 pm

The World Baseball Classic is once again upon us, and it does have a considerable effect on the Red Sox organization.  I’m actually among the vast minority of Sox fans who like the idea of the WBC, even though I acknowledge the inherent risk in having our guys participate in these game.  Yeah, I’ll be taking a deep, uneasy breath every time Daisuke uncorks a slider and every time Youk leans into a fastball, but I also love the idea of globalized baseball.  How cool is it that places like Italy, Holland, and South Africa are actually fielding baseball teams against the likes of the United States, Japan, and Cuba?

So, which players in the Red Sox organization will be participating?  Here’s a list (the names of major leaguers and prominent prospects are in bold type):

Jason Bay (Canada)
Fernando Cabrera (Puerto Rico)
Angel Chavez (Panama)
Chih-Hsien Chiang (Chinese Taipei)
Mitch Dening (Australia)
Justin Erasmus (South Africa)
Enrique Gonzalez (Venezuela)
Steve Green (Canada)
Che-Hsuan Lin (Chinese Taipei)
Javier Lopez (Puerto Rico)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (Japan)
Dennis Neuman (Netherlands)
David Ortiz (Domincan Republic)
Dustin Pedroia (United States)
Kevin Youkilis (United States)

Here’s a complete list of all rosters: MLB.com link

There was one recent disturbing bit of WBC Red Sox related news: Jason Bay will be playing CF for Canada.  Yeah, sweet.  Hey, any chance Pedroia gets to play shortstop?  Maybe David Ortiz can grab a catcher’s mitt?  I’m not loving the idea of giving our players more difficult positions to play in March, but I am a supporter of WBC, so I guess I have to accept its warts.

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By Jimmy,

2008 was a tough year in Detroit.  Both of the major auto companies contracted corporate AIDS, and watched their stock prices plummet like t-cell totals.  Eminem’s popularity has faded.  And yes, the Detroit Tigers, the sexy pre-season pick to win it all last season, staggered to an unexpected last-place finish in 2008.  Now, the “Big Two” auto makers could conceivably improve upon their miserable year, and Eminem could release a new album in which he fantasizes about killing another family member, but can the Tigers claw their way out of the cellar?  Let’s see.

Detroit Tigers
2008 Pythagorean Record: 78-84
2008 Finish: 5th place, AL Central

Projected 2009 Rotation:

1) Justin Verlander
2) Jeremy Bonderman
3) Armando Galarraga
4) Edwin Jackson
5) Zach Miner

Let’s talk about ERA and FIP.  ERA, or “Earned Run Average”, is basically a measure of how effective a pitcher was at preventing runs from scoring.  While ERA is probably the most commonly used pitching metric these days, its major flaw is that it can be skewed by the quality of defensive plays (i.e., a slick-fielding shortstop could snag a line drive that would normally go for a double, thereby reducing his pitcher’s ERA even though the pitcher just gave up a bullet).  FIP, or “Fielding Independent Pitching”, attempts to factor out the effect of fielders on ERA.  You can subtract one from the other and get a rough idea on how lucky (or unlucky) a pitcher was in 2008.  Armando Galarraga, Detroit’s best starter last season, had the highest FIP-ERA difference in the majors.  So, it can be assumed that he was a lucky, and will probably come down to Earth next season.

Injuries to Jeremy Bonderman, lackluster performances form ace Justin Verlander, and the general putridity of Nate Robertson helped the Tigers to a last place finish.  They acquired Edwin Jackson from the Rays to bolster what was an disappointing rotation in 2008, and Zach Minor could be decent (assuming he manages to win that 5th spot over Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson – two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball).  Verlander still has some of the best stuff in the game and could easily rebound, and Bonderman might be a good #2 if healthy.  Even if Galarraga’s carriage turns into a pumpkin, the rotation could still be OK.

Rotation Grade: C

Projected 2009 Bullpen:

Fernando Rodney (CL)
Joel Zumaya
Brandon Lyon
Bobby Seay
Juan Rincon
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis

There’s no real word on who the closer will be in Detroit.  Brandon Lyon might begin the year in the role, but I’ll wager 50 gold sovereigns that he doesn’t last 2 months there.  Zumaya and Rodney are both more overpowering and effective than Lyon.  Rodney is less of a gimp than Zumaya, so assume he spends more time in the closer’s role over the course of the season.  Willis and Robertson will both start games here and there, and nether has ever spent any prolonged time in the bullpen, but these guys are both batting practice pitchers right now.  Maybe a bullpen stint can change their approach and help them regain the effectiveness they’ve lost?

Overall, it’s a bullpen with some decent late-inning options and plenty of long relief depth available.  The only issue will be whether or not Brandon Lyon has incriminating photos of Jim Leyland along with the various other MLB managers he’s blackmailed over the past several years.

Bullpen Grade: C+

Projected 2009 Offense

1) Curtis Granderson CF
2) Placido Polanco 2B
3) Magglio Ordonez RF
4) Miguel Cabrera 1B
5) Carlos Guillen LF
6) Gary Sheffield DH
7) Brandon Inge 3B
8) Gerald Laird C
9) Adam Everett SS

Bench:

Marcus Thames – OF
Ramon Santiago – INF
Matt Trainor – C
Jeff Larish – 1B/DH

The offensive potential will decrease a bit from 2008, as Ivan Rodriguez and Edgar Renteria have been replaced by Gerald Laird and Adam Everett.  It’s one of the better lineups in the American League, especially 1 through 5, but there are question marks in the Motor City.  You know Cabrera will be a monster, but what about Ordonez, Polanco, and Guillen, all in their mid-30’s?  What about the geriatric (future Hall of Famer?) Gary Sheffield, who turned 40 last November?  Can these guys consistently hit over the course of the season?  My take on this lineup can be best described as cautiously enthusiastic.

Offense Grade: B

Fielding Projection

It’s pretty clear that the Tigers made some moves with leather in mind, as both Adam Everett and Gerald Laird immediately improve their respective positions.  Carlos Guillen was a terrible infielder, but he’ll move over to LF and Brandon Inge (a pretty good fielder) will assume 3B duties. Polanco is a great defensive 2B, Granderson is above average in CF, and Ordonez is just about average in RF.  Cabrera and Guillen are both butchers, but will have their shoddy gloves mitigated at 1B and LF.

Defensive Grade: B+

I think the Tigers rotation is better than their collective 2008 performance, especially in the case Justin Verlander, one of the most talented young pitchers in the league.  The offense should be close to what it was last year, and Detroit’s fielding should improve tenfold.  Expect the Tigers to exit the basement, and perhaps make a little noise in a weak AL Central in 2009.

Overall Grade: 66.2 (B-)

Next up: we visit the land of free love, Detective Adrian Monk, and BALCO.