Detroit Tigers 2009 Team Preview
2008 was a tough year in Detroit. Both of the major auto companies contracted corporate AIDS, and watched their stock prices plummet like t-cell totals. Eminem’s popularity has faded. And yes, the Detroit Tigers, the sexy pre-season pick to win it all last season, staggered to an unexpected last-place finish in 2008. Now, the “Big Two” auto makers could conceivably improve upon their miserable year, and Eminem could release a new album in which he fantasizes about killing another family member, but can the Tigers claw their way out of the cellar? Let’s see.
Detroit Tigers
2008 Pythagorean Record: 78-84
2008 Finish: 5th place, AL Central
Projected 2009 Rotation:
1) Justin Verlander
2) Jeremy Bonderman
3) Armando Galarraga
4) Edwin Jackson
5) Zach Miner
Let’s talk about ERA and FIP. ERA, or “Earned Run Average”, is basically a measure of how effective a pitcher was at preventing runs from scoring. While ERA is probably the most commonly used pitching metric these days, its major flaw is that it can be skewed by the quality of defensive plays (i.e., a slick-fielding shortstop could snag a line drive that would normally go for a double, thereby reducing his pitcher’s ERA even though the pitcher just gave up a bullet). FIP, or “Fielding Independent Pitching”, attempts to factor out the effect of fielders on ERA. You can subtract one from the other and get a rough idea on how lucky (or unlucky) a pitcher was in 2008. Armando Galarraga, Detroit’s best starter last season, had the highest FIP-ERA difference in the majors. So, it can be assumed that he was a lucky, and will probably come down to Earth next season.
Injuries to Jeremy Bonderman, lackluster performances form ace Justin Verlander, and the general putridity of Nate Robertson helped the Tigers to a last place finish. They acquired Edwin Jackson from the Rays to bolster what was an disappointing rotation in 2008, and Zach Minor could be decent (assuming he manages to win that 5th spot over Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson – two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball). Verlander still has some of the best stuff in the game and could easily rebound, and Bonderman might be a good #2 if healthy. Even if Galarraga’s carriage turns into a pumpkin, the rotation could still be OK.
Rotation Grade: C
Projected 2009 Bullpen:
Fernando Rodney (CL)
Joel Zumaya
Brandon Lyon
Bobby Seay
Juan Rincon
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis
There’s no real word on who the closer will be in Detroit. Brandon Lyon might begin the year in the role, but I’ll wager 50 gold sovereigns that he doesn’t last 2 months there. Zumaya and Rodney are both more overpowering and effective than Lyon. Rodney is less of a gimp than Zumaya, so assume he spends more time in the closer’s role over the course of the season. Willis and Robertson will both start games here and there, and nether has ever spent any prolonged time in the bullpen, but these guys are both batting practice pitchers right now. Maybe a bullpen stint can change their approach and help them regain the effectiveness they’ve lost?
Overall, it’s a bullpen with some decent late-inning options and plenty of long relief depth available. The only issue will be whether or not Brandon Lyon has incriminating photos of Jim Leyland along with the various other MLB managers he’s blackmailed over the past several years.
Bullpen Grade: C+
Projected 2009 Offense
1) Curtis Granderson CF
2) Placido Polanco 2B
3) Magglio Ordonez RF
4) Miguel Cabrera 1B
5) Carlos Guillen LF
6) Gary Sheffield DH
7) Brandon Inge 3B
8) Gerald Laird C
9) Adam Everett SS
Bench:
Marcus Thames – OF
Ramon Santiago – INF
Matt Trainor – C
Jeff Larish – 1B/DH
The offensive potential will decrease a bit from 2008, as Ivan Rodriguez and Edgar Renteria have been replaced by Gerald Laird and Adam Everett. It’s one of the better lineups in the American League, especially 1 through 5, but there are question marks in the Motor City. You know Cabrera will be a monster, but what about Ordonez, Polanco, and Guillen, all in their mid-30’s? What about the geriatric (future Hall of Famer?) Gary Sheffield, who turned 40 last November? Can these guys consistently hit over the course of the season? My take on this lineup can be best described as cautiously enthusiastic.
Offense Grade: B
Fielding Projection
It’s pretty clear that the Tigers made some moves with leather in mind, as both Adam Everett and Gerald Laird immediately improve their respective positions. Carlos Guillen was a terrible infielder, but he’ll move over to LF and Brandon Inge (a pretty good fielder) will assume 3B duties. Polanco is a great defensive 2B, Granderson is above average in CF, and Ordonez is just about average in RF. Cabrera and Guillen are both butchers, but will have their shoddy gloves mitigated at 1B and LF.
Defensive Grade: B+
I think the Tigers rotation is better than their collective 2008 performance, especially in the case Justin Verlander, one of the most talented young pitchers in the league. The offense should be close to what it was last year, and Detroit’s fielding should improve tenfold. Expect the Tigers to exit the basement, and perhaps make a little noise in a weak AL Central in 2009.
Overall Grade: 66.2 (B-)
Next up: we visit the land of free love, Detective Adrian Monk, and BALCO.
Personally i think Dontrelle Willis should get the fifth spot or even better!!! He was a very good pitcher in Florida in all but one year then only got 8 starts last year in Detroit and they pulled the plug!!! How does a guy ruin his life in 8 starts? Im the biggest Yankees fan in the world and i remember that CC Sabathia stunk it up for the first HALF of last year before turning it on and look how it turned out for him. This is a site inside a Red Sox fan which is prolly the reason you said he was the worst pitcher in the league. Look at the Red Sox they sucked for almost 100 years because of bad management.