San Francisco Giants 2009 Team Preview
Projected 2009 Rotation:
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Randy Johnson
Jonathan Sanchez
Oddly enough, the worst pitcher in this rotation is probably the guy who makes the most money. Barry Zito’s one strength at this point is the ability to eat innings. We’ve been waiting for him to recapture that magic he had 5 years ago in Oakland, but now that he’s turning 31 and his fastball is sitting at 85 MPH and he walks nearly as many guys as he strikes out, it’s time to accept that he’s not going to be any better than league average (and even hoping for league average is a stretch).
Tim Lincecum is now a baseball folk hero, and rightfully so. (”Hey, look! That short guy is good at stuff!”) A reasonable analysis would predict at least a modest decline from his 10.5 K/9 Cy Young season in 2008, but we can still expect him to be among the top 5 pitchers in the NL. Matt Cain is again a candidate to break out and join Lincecum at that same elite table, and Jonathan Sanchez might be the best #5 starter in the NL.
I won’t even waste time predicting what Randy Johnson will do this year. He’s not human; he’s actually some sort of prehistoric bird, and thus is not subject to the same effects of age as you and me. With his crazy pterodactyl muscles and joints, he could very well throw another 180 innings at the age of 45. Even if he can’t, Noah Lowry provides some decent insurance.
Rotation Grade: A-
Projected 2009 Bullpen:
Brian Wilson (CL)
Jeremy Affeldt
Bobby Howry
Jack Taschner
Alex Hinshaw
Keiichi Yabu
Noah Lowry
The addition of Affeldt and Howry help a thin bullpen. Brian Wilson is probably better than his 4.62 ERA last year (3.81 FIP), but he’s really just another guy among a group of mediocre relievers. Taschner and Hinshaw both walk too many guys for my liking, and Yabu will be 40 this year. The Giants do have future closer Sergio Romo waiting in the wings, but he’s not completely healthy at this point.
Bullpen Grade: D+
Projected 2009 Offense:
1) Randy Winn – RF
2) Edgar Renteria – SS
3) Fred Lewis – LF
4) Aaron Rowand – CF
5) Pablo Sandoval – 3B
6) Bengie Molina – C
7) Travis Ishikawa – 1B
8) Kevin Frandsen – 2B
Bench:
Nate Schierholtz – OF
Juan Uribe – 2B/SS
Rich Aurilla – 1B/3B
Stephen Holm – C
Eugenio Velez – IF/OF
There’s not really much to say. My batting order is irrelevant; Bruce Bochy likes to bat Sandoval 3rd and Molina 4th. The best hitter on the team is probably Schierholtz, wasting away on the bench.
Offense Grade: F+
Projected 2009 Fielding:
Sandoval is inexperienced at 3B, not to mention fairly obese, so I think I’m dubious of his abilities at that position. Edgar Renteria, as you know, is no longer a good defensive shortstop. I’m going to plead ignorance on the right side of that infield (Frandsen and Ishikawa, just not much statistically significant data available), so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume average gloves for both. The outfield of Winn-Rowand-Lewis is pretty good, and Molina is still a decent backstop despite his age.
Defensive Grade: C+
When you hear people repeat those tired “PITCHING IS ALL THAT MATTERS” type platitutes, just point them in the direction of the 2009 San Francisco Giants. This team has a terrific rotation, and yet, the odds of them making the playoffs are similar to the odds of Bernie Madoff being elected mayor of New York.
Overall Grade: 45.1 (C-)
Next up: A team the Red Sox will see plenty of. Hopefully the Sox will be able to keep the Devil down in the hole.
If Sanchez can figure out a way to walk less batters, this rotation could be among the best in the league.
Just wanted to drop a note and say how much I’ve appreciated these team previews over the last couple of years. Good impartial analysis is so hard to find, and for those of us who don’t eat, sleep, and breathe baseball but still want to know what the hell is going on this kind of work is like a Christmas gift. Thanks and don’t quit doing these!
We’re supposed to take your supposedly intelligent analysis of the Giants seriously??? Check your facts, dude, before you post them for the whole world to see. Keiichi Yabu isn’t even on the team any more. He got sent down to the minors a week ago.
Scotty, thanks for the roster update…please note that I wrote this post before Yabu was released. He’s a fringe contributor, doesn’t really change my projection. (i.e. the Giants are still a bad team)