Boston Red Sox 2009 Team Preview
Welcome back, your dreams were your ticket out.
Welcome back to that same old place that you laughed about.
Well the names have all changed since you hung around,
But those dreams have remained and they’re turned around.-John Sebastian
Rotation:
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny
The front three of the rotation rivals that of any other team. A key to Beckett’s success will be pitch selection, as the mid-90′s fastball found a few too many bats at times in 2008. In 2007, when he was in the running for the Cy Young, Beckett used the curveball roughly 25% of the time. If he can once again find an equilibrium between the two pitches, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the game. Lester and Matsuzaka both had stellar campaigns last year, and even a modest decline would have them among the best #2 and #3 starters in the league.
Here is where it gets a little hairy. Tim Wakefield returns to the rotation, and I have a bad feeling about it. The difference in speed between his fastball and his knuckler are at all time lows, making the deception factor less effective for him. While people seem to buy the myth that he can pitch until age 73, this guy still relies on his fastball to supplement the knuckleball, and once he loses the ability to throw the pitch at least 70 MPH, he could lose all effectiveness. It could happen as soon as this year, and it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.
With Brad Penny, you just hope he can stay healthy and be league average. He looked good in ths spring, and fortunately, so has Clay Buchholz. Clay will be waiting in AAA Pawtucket, and should be summoned at the first sign of trouble with Penny. The Sox also have Justin Mastretson available for spot starts (a guy I feel has the potential to be a star in the mold of Derek Lowe) and prospect Michael Bowden isn’t too far away. The versatility is there, but the back-end of the rotation might take some lumps in the early going.
Rotation Grade: B+
Bullpen:
Jonathan Papelbon (CL)
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen
Takashi Saito
Javier Lopez
Justin Masterson
The additions of Ramirez and Saito turn a good bullpen into a phenomenal one. Top to bottom, it’s probably the best bullpen in the game, and probably the best Red Sox bullpen I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.
Bullpen Grade: A
Offense:
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. DH David Ortiz
4. 1B Kevin Youkilis
5. OF Jason Bay
6. 3B Mike Lowell
7. OF J.D. Drew
8. SS Jed Lowrie
9. C Jason Varitek
Bench:
C George Kottaras
OF Rocco Baldelli
SS Nick Green
1B/OF Chris Carter
The main concern here is the stroke of Lowell and Ortiz, two key hitters who are recovering from possibly debilitating injuries. They each hit for decent power in the spring (.488 and .500 SLG% respectively), and we hope that will carry forward. If Ellsbury manages to improve his plate discipline a bit and nudge that OBP up into the .350 territory, he’ll be on his way to becoming one of the better lead-off guys in the game. Pedroia, Youkilis, Bay, and Drew are all among the best offensive producers at their positions, and Lowrie should be above average. Varitek…well…we can hope that he plays less against right-handed pitchers, but we’re not really sure how George Kottaras will be in that role. Still, one weak link in the lineup isn’t a bad deal for a team looking to slightly improve upon their run scoring capabilities. The bench is pretty good, as Carter and Baldelli provide a threat from both sides of the plate.
Offensive Grade: A-
Fielding: The one wild card here is Jed Lowrie at shortstop. He was excellent in a relatively small sample last year. The rest of the infield is excellent, CF and RF are both decent, and LF is below average (but a monumental improvement over the last occupant of that position). Varitek is essentially the same as before (good backstop, sub-par arm).
Fielding Grade: B+
Overall Grade: 85.6 (A-)
Yeah, as it turns out, the Red Sox score the highest in my rankings. Am I showing bias here? I think (hope) that I properly discounted the rotation for their potential flaws in my “B+” grade, and the lineup is a Taylor Teagarden type away from being a solid “A”. I don’t see many flaws in the bullpen, and defensively the team appears to be among the best in the game. Am I optimistic? We shall see, over the next few months.
Update: today’s game is rained out, and will be played at 4:00. It’s not really raining here in Boston, but I suppose they wanted nicer weather for whatever dog & pony show they have planned at Fenway.
Next up: Opening Day Power Rankings (based on the scores I assigned here).
I think Mr. Delcarmen is going to be the biggest disappointment on this team, this side of Wakefield.
And Lester’s inability to find the plate over his last two ST starts is a little alarming (even though the rest of his spring was spectacular).