Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 4/7/2009 6:51 am

2009 Playoff Predictions:

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Anaheim Angels
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals

ALCS: Boston over Tampa Bay (7 games)
NLCS: Los Angeles over Chicago (5 games)

World Series: Boston over Los Angeles (5 games)

Predicted 2009 Award Winners:

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke
AL Rookie of the Year: David Price
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Travis Hafner
AL Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge

NL MVP: David Wright
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter
NL Manager of the Year: Manny Acta

Miscellaneous Predictions and Surprises:

• First AL Manager Fired: Ozzie Guillen
• First NL Manager Fired: Fredi Gonzalez
• The Washington Nationals will shock the baseball world by finishing over .500 (82-80), only a few games out of third place.
• Kansas City is the surprise team in the AL, hovering near first place for much of the season before trailing off in September.
• Mark Prior will finally retire after suffering another injury setback in his comeback attempt with San Diego.
• Yankees manager Joe Girardi is fired at the end of the season.  GM Brian Cashman hires Buck Showalter to manage the team in 2010.  Girardi is hired by the Chicago White Sox.
• A.J. Burnett has a better season than C.C. Sabathia, winning 19 games with a 3.47 ERA. (C.C. – 16 wins and a 3.91 ERA).
• Johan Santana suffers a season-ending injury before the All-Star break.
• Most pleasant Red Sox surprise: Jacoby Ellsbury
• Most disappointing Red Sox player: Tim Wakefield

Comments (5)

By Jimmy,

I think it might help if we split the teams up into categories.  I won’t go as far to say that I stole this idea from Bill Simmons, but I’ll admit that I was vaguely inspired by a regular column he sometimes writes on the trade value of NBA players.

Top Tier: Eyes on the Trophy
These teams are built to win a championship.  Anything less than a playoff berth will be a disappointment.

1) Boston Red Sox
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) Chicago Cubs
4) Tampa Bay Rays
5) New York Yankees
6) New York Mets
7) St. Louis Cardinals

Second Tier: In the Mix
These teams have holes, but they should be in contention for much of the year.  They are a mid-season trade away from being in the Top Tier.  Could win a weak division.

8) Philadelphia Phillies
9) Arizona Diamondbacks
10) Toronto Blue Jays
11) Anaheim Angels
12) Cleveland Indians
13) Minnesota Twins
14) Atlanta Braves
15) Detroit Tigers

Third Tier: Possible Cinderellas
These teams may not be the strongest on paper, but they do have some promising players.  If certain guys have breakout years, they could become the talk of baseball with a surprising season and a wild card berth.  However, it’s not likely.

16) Oakland A’s
17) Milwaukee Brewers
18) Cincinnati Reds
19) Kansas City Royals
20) Houston Astros
21) Washington Nationals

Fourth Tier: There’s Always Next Year
These teams don’t have a chance.  Their focus should be on trading away any expensive veterans for minor league talent.  Their best case scenario is to lose as many games as possible and secure a high draft pick.

22) Texas Rangers
23) Colorado Rockies
24) Baltimore Orioles
25) Florida Marlins
26) Chicago White Sox
27) Seattle Mariners
28) Pittsburgh Pirates
29) San Francisco Giants
30) San Diego Pirates

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 4/6/2009 12:36 pm

Welcome back, your dreams were your ticket out.
Welcome back to that same old place that you laughed about.
Well the names have all changed since you hung around,
But those dreams have remained and they’re turned around.

-John Sebastian

Rotation:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny

The front three of the rotation rivals that of any other team.  A key to Beckett’s success will be pitch selection, as the mid-90′s fastball found a few too many bats at times in 2008.  In 2007, when he was in the running for the Cy Young, Beckett used the curveball roughly 25% of the time.  If he can once again find an equilibrium between the two pitches, he’ll be one of the best pitchers in the game.  Lester and Matsuzaka both had stellar campaigns last year, and even a modest decline would have them among the best #2 and #3 starters in the league.

Here is where it gets a little hairy.  Tim Wakefield returns to the rotation, and I have a bad feeling about it.  The difference in speed between his fastball and his knuckler are at all time lows, making the deception factor less effective for him.  While people seem to buy the myth that he can pitch until age 73, this guy still relies on his fastball to supplement the knuckleball, and once he loses the ability to throw the pitch at least 70 MPH, he could lose all effectiveness.  It could happen as soon as this year, and it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

With Brad Penny, you just hope he can stay healthy and be league average.  He looked good in ths spring, and fortunately, so has Clay Buchholz.  Clay will be waiting in AAA Pawtucket, and should be summoned at the first sign of trouble with Penny.  The Sox also have Justin Mastretson available for spot starts (a guy I feel has the potential to be a star in the mold of Derek Lowe) and prospect Michael Bowden isn’t too far away.  The versatility is there, but the back-end of the rotation might take some lumps in the early going.

Rotation Grade: B+

Bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon (CL)
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen
Takashi Saito
Javier Lopez
Justin Masterson

The additions of Ramirez and Saito turn a good bullpen into a phenomenal one.  Top to bottom, it’s probably the best bullpen in the game, and probably the best Red Sox bullpen I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.

Bullpen Grade: A

Offense:

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. DH David Ortiz
4. 1B Kevin Youkilis
5. OF Jason Bay
6. 3B Mike Lowell
7. OF J.D. Drew
8. SS Jed Lowrie
9. C Jason Varitek

Bench:

C George Kottaras
OF Rocco Baldelli
SS Nick Green
1B/OF Chris Carter

The main concern here is the stroke of Lowell and Ortiz, two key hitters who are recovering from possibly debilitating injuries.  They each hit for decent power in the spring (.488 and .500 SLG% respectively), and we hope that will carry forward.  If Ellsbury manages to improve his plate discipline a bit and nudge that OBP up into the .350 territory, he’ll be on his way to becoming one of the better lead-off guys in the game.  Pedroia, Youkilis, Bay, and Drew are all among the best offensive producers at their positions, and Lowrie should be above average.  Varitek…well…we can hope that he plays less against right-handed pitchers, but we’re not really sure how George Kottaras will be in that role.  Still, one weak link in the lineup isn’t a bad deal for a team looking to slightly improve upon their run scoring capabilities.  The bench is pretty good, as Carter and Baldelli provide a threat from both sides of the plate.

Offensive Grade: A-

Fielding: The one wild card here is Jed Lowrie at shortstop.  He was excellent in a relatively small sample last year.  The rest of the infield is excellent, CF and RF are both decent, and LF is below average (but a monumental improvement over the last occupant of that position).  Varitek is essentially the same as before (good backstop, sub-par arm).

Fielding Grade: B+

Overall Grade: 85.6 (A-)

Yeah, as it turns out, the Red Sox score the highest in my rankings.  Am I showing bias here?  I think (hope) that I properly discounted the rotation for their potential flaws in my “B+” grade, and the lineup is a Taylor Teagarden type away from being a solid “A”.  I don’t see many flaws in the bullpen, and defensively the team appears to be among the best in the game.  Am I optimistic?  We shall see, over the next few months.

Update: today’s game is rained out, and will be played at 4:00.  It’s not really raining here in Boston, but I suppose they wanted nicer weather for whatever dog & pony show they have planned at Fenway.

Next up: Opening Day Power Rankings (based on the scores I assigned here).

Comments (1)

By Jimmy,

When C.C. Sabathia lumbers onto that unfortunate pitcher’s mound in Baltimore this afternoon, he carries with him the weight of New York’s collective angst.  After failing to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, the franchise went into full assault mode and stockpiled some expensive weapons of mass destruction.  If this team fails to wash off the stink of third place after the Steinbrenner brothers effectively flicked their middle fingers at the world economy, the back-page tabloids will not hold back. Nor should they.

Rotation:
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. A.J. Burnett
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

Factoring out injury risk, it could be the best rotation in baseball.  Even in the likely event that someone like A.J. Burnett goes down, you have promising starter Phil Hughes waiting to pick up the slack.  I’m not relishing the idea of watching the Sox face CC-Joba-Burnett in a three game series.  Health concerns are present for a couple of these guys, but that’s really the only shortcoming here.

Rotation Grade: A-

Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera (CL)
Damaso Marte
Brian Bruney
Phil Coke
Edwar Ramirez
Jose Veras
Jonathan Albaladejo

Rivera’s a freak of nature who had his career best ERA+ at age 38, so we’ll assume that the 9th inning is signed, sealed, and delivered once again.  Ramirez and Veras are both promising arms, and I’m betting they are eventually assigned to become Rivera’s setup men.  The guys actually setting up Mariano (Bruney and Marte) are questionable. Bruney, while overpowering, sometimes has serious trouble finding the plate, and Marte has not proven to be effective since returning from injury.  However, there’s enough talent in the pen to hide the failures of 1 or 2 guys.

Bullpen: B+

Offense:
1. SS Derek Jeter
2. LF Johnny Damon
3. 1B Mark Teixeira
4. DH Hideki Matsui
5. C Jorge Posada
6. 2B Robinson Cano
7. RF Xavier Nady
8. 3B Cody Ransom (A-Rod in late May)
9. CF Brett Gardner

Bench:
C Jose Molina
OF/1B Nick Swisher
OF Melky Cabrera
INF Angel Berroa

Things certainly look a lot different without you-know-who in the lineup.  The key to the season is probably Cano, a guy who can either hit like Ryne Sandberg or Scott Fletcher.  Teixeira should be a monster, especially since the new stadium has the same Little League right field wall as the old one.  Posada, Jeter, Damon, and Matsui are all guys who are in the midst of declining career trajectories, and while they should all be decent offensive producers, the wheels could fall off and major injuries could occur at any time (especially in the cases of Posada and Matsui).  I’ll grade them assuming A-Rod is back in late May as expected, and is suffering no ill effects from his injury (or whatever else he has going on in his life).

Offensive grade: B

Fielding:  Minor league data is inconclusive on “Poor Man’s Ellsbury” out in CF, but we do know he’s fast, so we’ll assume that he can track down a good amount of balls out there.  Cody Ransom is a SS by trade, and thus he’ll probably make a decent 3B until A-Rod returns (and A-Rod is about average these days).  Teixeria is a great fielder at 1B. Cano can be good, but the data and the anecdotal evidence suggests that he has more of a negative defensive impact than a positive one.  The corner outfielders are below average, and the two most important positions on the field (C and SS) are extremely weak.

Fielding Grade: C+

Overall: 78.1 (B+)

Red Sox next…hopefully right around game time.

Comments Off

By Jimmy,

I’m going to try my hardest to objectively rate these next two teams while ignoring the raging inferno of hatred in my heart.

Tampa Bay Rays

Rotation:

1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price

Price was actually sent down to AAA, but I have a feeling he’ll get “The Longoria Treatment”.  By that, I don’t mean he’ll wed a French basketball player, rather, his stay in the minors will be very short.  I’m not the biggest Sonnanstine fan, but he’s somehow been able to get it done in Tampa.  The other three guys all range from good to excellent.  Price, from what I’ve seen from him last September/October, might be the best of the bunch. A sure fire ace, if healthy.

Rotation Grade: A-

Bullpen:

Troy Percival (CL)
Dan Wheeler
Grant Balfour
J.P. Howell
Brian Shouse
Joe Nelson
Jeff Niemann

Neither Percival nor Wheeler really impress me with their stuff, but they both seem to rise to the occasion in late inning situations. The rest of the pen, however, is pretty good.  Balfour, Howell, and Nelson are all guys who could be closer candidates on other teams, and Niemann is a solid swingman with high potential.

Bullpen grade: B+

Offense:

1. CF B.J. Upton
2. LF Carl Crawford
3. 3B Evan Longoria
4. 1B Carlos Pena
5. DH Pat Burrell
6. RF Gabe Gross
7. C Dioner Navarro
8. 2B Akinori Iwamura
9. SS Jason Bartlett

Bench:
C Shawn Riggans
INF Ben Zobrist
INF Willy Aybar
OF Gabe Kapler

Top of the order should be fine, assuming Upton manages to regain some of the power stroke he alarmingly lost in 2008.  The bottom of the order will be a weakness, as will their paper-thin bench (hello Gabe Kapler).

Offensive Grade: B

Fielding: Very strong.  Upton was a terrible infielder when he first arrived on the scene, but he played quite well in CF last year.  The infield and outfield are both terrific in Tampa Bay.

Fielding Grade: A

Overall Grade: 79.8 (B+)

Later this morning: NY

This afternoon: The Sox.

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By Jimmy, 4/5/2009 11:52 am

We’re rounding out the remaining team grades, with the exception of the “Big Three” in the AL East.

Atlanta Braves

I wasn’t the biggest fan of the Derek Lowe acquisition, and I haven’t been blown away by what I’ve read about Kenshin Kawakami, but when it comes to building a starting rotation, the Braves management regime deserves the benefit of the doubt.  If future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones stays healthy, he’ll be a run-producing machine and will adequately compensate for the shortfalls of guys like Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson.

Rotation: B
Bullpen: C
Offense: B-
Fielding: C+
OVERALL: 66.8 (B-)

Chicago Cubs

The only weakness in Chicago’s lineup is the 9th spot (the pitcher).  With Rich Harden apparently healthy, the window for breaking that 100+ year drought is wide open.

Rotation: A-
Bullpen: B-
Offense: A-
Fielding: C-
OVERALL: 82 (B+)

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The only significant changes to the 2008 team were essentially swapping Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez for Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes. So, the Angels head into the season a little weaker than last year.  Fortunately, they are in a weak division.

Rotation: B
Bullpen: A-
Offense: C+
Fielding: B-
OVERALL: 68.6 (B-)

New York Mets

Last season, the Mets were cursed with a terrible bullpen, but they certainly remedied that over the winter.  I’m not on board with the amount of money spent on “K-Rod”, but he and J.J. Putz provide an immediate improvement over their one true weakness from the previous year.  At the very least, the move will help them immensely in the short term.

Rotation: B-
Bullpen: A-
Offense: B+
Fielding: B+
OVERALL: 77.2 (B+/B)

Pittsburgh Pirates

It’s good to see Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen both with regular MLB roles.  Well, good for me.  Bad for Pirates fans.

Rotation: C-
Bullpen: D+
Offense: C-
Fielding: C+
OVERALL: 46.6 (C-)

St. Louis Cardinals

All eyes will be on former ace Chris Carpenter, as he is apparently healthy heading into the season.  Without him, the rotation goes from decent to questionable.

Rotation: B-
Bullpen: B
Offense: A-
Fielding: C-
OVERALL: 77.1 (B+/B)

Texas Rangers

One of the benefits of growing up in Johnston, Rhode Island: I can spell “Saltalamacchia” without looking it up.  Salty and Chris Davis should begin to make names for themselves in 2009, but rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus might be the worst regular hitter in the Major Leagues this year.

Rotation: D-
Bullpen: B-
Offense: B-
Fielding: D+
OVERALL: 53.7 (C)

Washington Nationals

They’ll score quite a few runs.  Alas, they will yield quite a few more.

Rotation: D
Bullpen: D+
Offense: B
Fielding: C
OVERALL: 55.9 (C)

Next up, the Rays.

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By Jimmy, 4/3/2009 12:16 pm

Chicago White Sox 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jose Contreras, Bartolo Colon
Bullpen: Bobby Jenks, Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Clayton Richard, Jeff Marquez, D.J. Carrasco

Offense:
1. SS Alexei Ramirez
2. C A.J. Pierzynski
3. LF Carlos Quentin
4. DH Jim Thome
5. RF Jermaine Dye
6. 1B Paul Konerko
7. 3B Josh Fields
8. CF Dewayne Wise
9. 2B Chris Getz

Bench: Corky Miller (C), Brent Lillibridge (INF), Wilson Betemit (INF) Brian Anderson (OF)

I guess I don’t get the wisdom of putting DeWayne Wise and his career .254 OBP (!!) in the leadoff spot, but that’s what Ozzie Guillen plans on doing.  Not that there’s really any great leadoff option here; the on-base guys in this lineup are all lumbering big-bopper types.  I can’t really see Carlos Quentin repeating the season he had last year, but there should be plenty of pop throughout the middle of the order even if he does regress.

The rotation is a little scary, especially in the back end.  John Danks could break out into a staff ace, but Mark Buehrle pitches to contact more than I would like. The one part of this team I like is the bullpen.  Several experienced hard-throwers for the late innings, and some versatile long men who can step in and start a game in the event that Bartolo Colon explodes like a pinata.

Defensively, the team is in very rough shape.  Jermaine Dye is most likely the worst RF in baseball, and DeWayne Wise does not have favorable minor league CF numbers.  Alexei Ramirez, who wasn’t a great 2B last year, will move over to SS.  The lone bright spot on the field will be Chris Getz, who flashed decent leather in the minors at 2B.

Starters: C-
Bullpen: B+
Offense: C-
Fielding: D+
OVERALL SCORE: 51.6 (C/C-)

Cleveland Indians 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Scott Lewis, Anthony Reyes
Bullpen: Kerry Wood, Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Masa Kobayashi, Zach Jackson

Offense:
1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. C Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. 1B Ryan Garko
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera

Bench: Kelly Shoppach (C), Jamey Carroll (INF), Trevor Crowe (OF), Josh Barfield (INF)

What did Cliff Lee do different last year?  In simple terms, he became a ground ball pitcher overnight.  His GB/FB ratio for the past 5 years:

2004 0.75
2005 0.81
2006 0.68
2007 0.71
2008 1.31

More ground balls, and slightly fewer walks, turned Cliff Lee into a Cy Young Award winner.  Can he keep that up?  He hasn’t been sharp this spring, with a GO/AO ratio back under 1 and an ERA over 12, but the whole non-correlation of spring stats applies.  All I know is that the rotation quoted above will look a lot different if Lee’s carriage turns into a pumpkin this season.  I’ll peg him for a good (not great) season in 2009.

Rotation Grade: C+
Bullpen Grade: A-
Offensive Grade: B-
Fielding Grade: C
OVERALL SCORE: (67.25 B-)

Minnesota Twins 2009 Team Preview

Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Luis Ayala, Philip Humber, Brian Duensing

Offense:
1. CF Carlos Gomez
2. 2B Alexi Casilla
3. C Joe Mauer
4. 1B Justin Morneau
5. DH Jason Kubel
6. RF Michael Cuddyer
7. LF Delmon Young
8. 3B Joe Crede
9. SS Nick Punto

Bench: Brian Buscher (IB/3B), Brendan Harris (INF), Denard Span (OF), Mike Redmond (C)

Before Francisco Liriano was injured, his fastball was regularly sitting at 95 MPH and was complimented with a 88 MPH slider.  When he returned over a year later, the fastball was 90 MPH and the slider was around 84 MPH.  The Twins hope he can slowly get his velocity close to what it was in 2006, when he was the best rookie pitcher in baseball.  If he can even come close to that, the trio of Liriano, Baker, and Slowey will be an AL Central institution for the forseeable future.

Rotation: C+
Bullpen: B+
Offense: B-
Defense: B-
OVERALL SCORE: 66.85 (B-)

That’s it for the AL Central.  For the record, I see no real powerhouse in this division, however, I have Deroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota being very close to one another, in terms of best team in the Central (and the Royals being a couple of steps behind, but not too far).  It should be fun to see these three go at it.

Next: finishing the NL East

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By Jimmy, 4/2/2009 10:02 am

Again, my apologies if you are a fan of one of the following teams.  It’s not that I don’t care about your franchise, but…if I may quote Winston Wolf: time is of the essence.  I’d like to write a full preview of three teams in particular before Opening Day (I’m sure you can guess which teams), and for this to happen, I have to breeze through some others.  Like the career of Creighton Gubanich, these will be quick.

The following two teams are the NL West squads I have yet to cover.

Arizona Diamondbacks 2009 Team Preview:

Projected Pitching Staff:

1) Brandon Webb
2) Danny Haren
3) Max Scherzer
4) Jon Garland
5) Doug Davis

Chad Qualls
Tony Pena
Jon Rauch
Yusmeiro Petit
Scott Schoeneweis
Billy Buckner
Juan Gutierrez

Projected Hitters:
1. 2B Felipe Lopez
2. CF Chris Young
3. SS Stephen Drew
4. LF Conor Jackson
5. RF Justin Upton
6. 1B Chad Tracy
7. 3B Mark Reynolds
8. C Chris Snyder

Eric Byrnes – OF
Miguel Monteiro – C
Augie Ojeda – SS
Tony Clark – 1B
Ryan Roberts – 2B/3B

The guy everyone will be watching in that rotation is 24-year-old Max Scherzer, a phenom with a mid-90′s fastball and a 10.6 K/9 in his 2008 debut.  If Scherzer reaches his ceiling, Arizona could have the best front three in the National League.  The lineup is full of upside, as Upton and Young both have superstar potential, and Stephen Drew has established himself as one of the better shortstops in the league.  Defensively, it’s a mixed bag.  Their outfield is decent, but their infield is lackluster.

Rotation Grade: B+
Bullpen Grade: D+
Lineup Grade: B
Fielding Grade: C+
OVERALL SCORE: 70 (B/B-) 

Colorado Rockies 2009 Team Preview:

Projected Pitching Staff:

1) Aaron Cook
2) Ubaldo Jiminez
3) Franklin Morales
4) Jorge De La Rosa
5) Jason Marquis

Manny Corpas
Huston Street
Taylor Buchholz
Ryan Speier
Jason Grilli
Alan Embree
Glendon Rusch

Projected Hitters:

1. CF Ryan Spilborghs
2. SS Troy Tulowitzki
3. 1B Todd Helton
4. 3B Garrett Atkins
5. RF Brad Hawpe
6. C Chris Iannetta
7. LF Seth Smith
8. 2B Clint Barmes

Ian Stewart – 2B/3B
Yorvit Torrealba – C
Jeff Baker – 1B/OF
Dexter Fowler – OF
Omar Quintanilla – INF

We’re a long way from 2007, aren’t we?  Who would have thought that Matt Holliday’s replacement would be the immortal Seth Smith (most notably Papelbon’s final victim in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series).  If I were Clint Hurdle, I would just punt defense and start Ian Stewart at 2B, but that’s me.  That rotation might be cruising for a bruising next season, without Jeff Francis for the year and counting on a couple of shaky pitchers to keep games close in Coors Field.  Defensively, the Rockies have a good middle infield, but they are very shaky in several other key areas (RF, 3B, CF)

Rotation Grade: D
Bullpen Grade: B-
Lineup Grade: C+
Fielding Grade: C-
OVERALL SCORE: 52.6 (C) 

That does it for the NL west.  Next up, I’ll finish up the remaining AL Central teams (Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago).

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By Jimmy, 4/1/2009 9:41 am

2009 Rotation Projection:

1. Chad Billingsley
2. Hiroki Kuroda
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Randy Wolf
5. James McDonald

Ignore the rotation order I have up there; apparently Joe Torre decided to tab Hiroki Kuroda as the Opening Day starter.  This is probably a good topic for another post in iteslf, but: in the long run, the positioning of your 1-4 starters really doesn’t have much of an impact on anything, as they all will receive roughly the same number of starts assuming no injuries.

A lot of folks are down on this rotation, but I’m actually quite bullish here.  Billingsley is 24 and already a legitimate ace.  Kershaw could turn out just as good, if not better.  These guys will combine for over 400 Ks in 2009 if they stay healthy; they are basically Lincecum and Cain without the hype.  Kuroda is a tremendously poised veteran who keeps the ball in the park and won’t walk anyone, and Randy Wolf should be league average, although his All-Star days are long gone.  James McDonald is a promising right-hander with strong breaking stuff to complement a low 90′s fastball.  He might have some growing pains in his first full MLB season, but the Dodgers do have Jason Schmidt (remember him?) waiting in the wings if McDonald sputters.

Rotation Grade: B+

2009 Bullpen Projection:

Jonathan Broxton (CL)
Hong-Chih Kuo
Guillermo Mota
Cory Wade
Claudio Vargas
Jeff Weaver
Shawn Estes

We know the late-inning portion of this bullpen will be fine with Broxton and Kuo; the pair combined for 184 Ks in 149 relief innings last season.  Cory Wade had a tremendous rookie season, but don’t expect a repeat of it; his BABIP was .227 last year.  Still, he and Mota should be decent – not great – setup guys.  What we don’t know is how the middle-long relief will perform here.  Jeff Weaver, a guy who has been an abject failure of late, will return to the major leagues as a reliever.  Shawn Estes, another long-time starter, could be used is a LOOGY type of role.  Estes might be OK when used in this limited fashion, but I can’t expect anything good coming out of Jeff Weaver stepping on a pitcher’s mound.  Still, his role will be mitigated, and most of this pen is solid at the very least.

Bullpen Grade: B

2009 Offense Projection:

1) Raphael Furcal SS
2) Russel Martin C
3) Manny Ramirez LF
4) Matt Kemp CF
5) Andre Ethier RF
6) James Loney 1B
7) Casey Blake 3B
8) Orlando Hudson 2B

Bench:

Juan Pierre – OF
Mark Loretta – 2B/SS
Brad Ausmus – C
Doug Mientkiewicz – 1B/3B/RF
Juan Castro – INF

If you live in the Boston area, you know about the absolute hysteria surrounding Manny Ramirez.  Yes, still.  8 months after his last days in a Red Sox uniform, he is still a major conversation topic around these parts.  His final season in Boston was like a nuclear bomb, and we are still living with the toxic cloud.  The fallout has contaminated the brains of writers and radio hosts, and now they are radioactive zombies with only one thought in mind…”MANNY BAD”.

Regardless of all that, he might be the best right-handed hitter who ever lived, as crazy as that sounds.  A difficult guy to analyze given his age and his unique skill set, but you have to assume he’s still good for an OPS around .950 at the very least.  The lineup, as a whole, is excellent.  Every single guy is at least above average at his respective position.  They could use a decent infielder on the bench, but that’s a minor complaint.

Offensive Grade: A

Fielding Projection:

This team has to have one weakness, right?  Here it is.  Manny and Kemp will give the Dodgers a huge weak spot out in left-center.  The middle infield is OK, but both guys are not what they used to be.  The team nearly converted Russ Martin to a third baseman, which is telling.

Fielding Grade: D+

Maybe I’m overrating that rotation a bit, but it looks like this is the strongest team I’ve reviewed thus far.  (Note: I still have a bunch of good teams left to review).

Overall Grade: 84.1 (A-/B+)

Next up: I’ll be writing an “express” review, with several squads packed into one post.  Father Time is a merciless fellow, and Opening Day is almost here.