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By Jimmy, 5/27/2009 11:41 am

Last night, we saw the continuance of an odd trend in Jon Lester’s 2009 starts.  A fifth inning collapse.  Why does this happen?  The first prognosis that comes to mind is fatigue.  But, Lester seems to do just fine after the fifth inning, according to the statistical evidence.

How bad has he been in the fifth frame?  Check it out.  Jon Lester in the 5th inning, 2009:

10 innings
19 runs
6 home runs
opponents hitting .449/.471/.857 (201 OPS+)
17.10 ERA

Yikes.  It’s too bad there isn’t a way to eliminate the fifth inning from his starts, sort of like how hotels in Manhattan eliminate the 13th floor.  Hypothetically speaking, if we remove the fifth inning from Lester’s 2009 starts, we get a 3.31 ERA over 51 innings (numbers somewhat similar to his 2008 totals, unsurprisingly).

The oddest thing about all this, is the fifth inning was his best inning throughout last season.  He held hitters to .208/.306/.330 in the 5th last year.

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By Jimmy, 5/26/2009 9:42 am

Here’s something you might find surprising.  It sure as hell shocked me.

2009 FIP (FIP is “Fielding Independent Pitching”…just think of it as a smarter version of ERA):

Tim Wakefield: 4.95
Brad Penny: 4.77

That’s right.  Over the course of this season, Brad Penny has been a better starting pitcher than Tim Wakefield, according to the FIP numbers after last night’s win over Minnesota.  The same Brad Penny who makes you groan in agony after discovering that he is scheduled to pitch the game you have tickets for next week.  The same Tim Wakefield who has his own brand of wine and has been elevated to sainthood by the Boston community.

Believe it or not, the guy has had one of the better fastballs in the American League.

Top 10 Average Fastball Velocities in 2009, AL Starters:

1. Justin Verlander, DET (95.4)
2. Edwin Jackson, DET (94.5)
3. A.J. Burnett, NYY (94.4)
4. Josh Beckett, BOS (94.1)
5. C.C. Sabathia, NYY (93.8)
6. Felix Hernandez, SEA (93.8)
7. Zack Greinke, KCR (93.3)
8. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL (93.2)
9. Brad Penny, BOS (92.8)
10. Jon Lester, BOS (92.7)

Most of the guys on this list are pretty good pitchers, aren’t they?  Brad Penny hasn’t been getting ground balls like he did in his NL days, but if we expect that his GB% will revert to the mean (minus an adjustment for facing DHs instead of pitchers), we can probably expect him to continue to be a solid back-end starter.

NOTES:

Somewhat related to Brad Penny: Pawtucket starter Clay Buchholz took a perfect game into the 9th inning last night before giving up a single.  The one-time top prospect continues to knock on Fenway’s door.

Also somewhat related to Brad Penny: John Smoltz has been sighted in the Granite State.  He’ll make a rehab start tonight for the Seadogs when they take on the New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

In terms of pitching depth, Theo Epstein’s cup spilleth over.  It’s amazing how quickly that can change, so let’s savor the moment.

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By Jimmy, 5/23/2009 7:49 pm

The Red Sox have now reached their quarter point in the season, so now is as good a time as any to take a look at where the Sox are compared to expectations coming into the season.

Keep in mind that that we’re only talking about 25% of a major league season here…not trying to re-invent the wheel, nor are we making predictions based on performance this year.

Hitters
Jason Varitek – B
I thought he was completely done after last season, and in fact, wrote last June on how it was likely that he was going to be a zero for this team going forward. The good is that he’s hitting for a lot of power, which escaped Varitek last year, even during his serviceable May. He’s still drawing walks, which he did all last year. He still can’t really field his position anymore, and his game calling (something I always thought was as much a myth as fact) still gets praise despite leading a talented rotation to awful result, and he can’t throw at all. Still, if he can hold on for the rest of the year, the Red Sox will look smart for thinking that he could cheat death.

George Kottaras – C
I didn’t expect much, and his offense has been terrible. Still, he’s handling Wakefield well enough that you aren’t seeing his #16 facing center often…

Kevin Youkilis – A
He missed two weeks, but through 122 plate appearances, his on base is .500. That means as of right now, he’s reached base 61 times which is a season’s worth of work for the Willy Tavarez’s of the world.

Jeff Bailey – D
He homered in his first at bat of the year, but didn’t hit enough to justify his place as organizational fodder. Considering he’s 30 and can’t really field his position, we’ve likely seen the last of JB.

Dustin Pedroia – B+
He’s walking more than last year’s MVP campaign, he’s hitting a lot of doubles, and he’s probably the best defensive second baseman in the American League. He’s still had a very good year even if he doesn’t ever break the home run tie with Ortiz. The downside? He’s hitting into a distressing amount of double plays, which is the only thing keeping him from a A.

Nick Green – C+
Remember last year when Kevin Cash was hitting like an actual major leaguer for like 4 weeks? Green is this year’s sample size mirage. He’s this year’s Alex Cora, a utility guy that could probably start for a bad team, be the 5th or 6th infielder for an average team, and a easily replaceable guy for a good team.

Julio Lugo – F
Fuck you.

Mike Lowell – C+
First the good. He’s hitting for power, and he’s getting singles.

The bad? Everything else. He is below average at getting on base, which is tough to do when you’re hitting in the upper .280’s. He is a statue at third, the hip has sapped away his once-good range. His double plays are taking runs away from Jason Bay, JD Drew, and David Ortiz to the point where Bay has started by-passing everything but hitting home runs (In true Canadian fashion, he is doing so politely)…and the most damming? He isn’t hustling out of the box.

When Manny Ramirez was a Red Sox, he took a healthy amount of crap for not hustling which was usually explained away with his HOF level production. Lowell is the 3rd highest paid Red Sox right now, isn’t producing nearly as much, and no one has mentioned how on a ground ball to short, he’s not halfway up the line yet. This actually helped cost the Red Sox a game in Seattle when Betencourt bobbled a ball and still turned the DP because of Lowell’s jogging, killing a Sox rally.

This is not the first year that he hasn’t busted his ass down the line, but it’s harder to overlook when you’re only getting on base 32% of the time.

Jason Bay – A
Right now, he’s on the short list with Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, and a few others as the AL MVP.

Jacoby Ellsbury – C+
Great glove. The Red Sox have been blessed with some pretty rangy center fielders lately, from Darren Lewis, to pre-injury Carl Everett, to Johnny Damon, to Coco Crisp (his 2007 might have been the best I’ve ever seen).

I want to make this clear…I think Ellsbury is an average baseball player right now. His glove is fantastic, but his bat is…we’ll call it ‘weak’. As the leadoff man, power isn’t really a necessity as much as a bonus, so I don’t want him to hit a bunch of home runs…which he’s not. He’s also not hitting many doubles either though, and he’s been caught stealing 5 times already this year which puts his CS% at 77% (down from 82% last year). But the most distressing thing is that Ellsbury isn’t walking at all. His on base is under .340, which just isn’t acceptable from a lead off man.

Ellsbury was called up with a lot of hype, and it was justified with his down the stretch 07 performance. He’s not young though, being Pedroia’s junior only by a month, so I’m starting to wonder if what you see is what you get with him…and that’s a good glove singles hitter. He’d be an all star in the 1980’s…

JD Drew – B+
He’s staying in the lineup and the only negative is a low batting average. Forever dogged by the notion that he doesn’t care, Drew was a favorite of John Schuerholz when he was a Brave (mention in Schuerholz’s book)…which is interesting considering the shots taken at him by the Cardinals and Dodgers organizations when he left.

David Ortiz – D
The Good: All things considered, his on base isn’t terrible

The Bad: Everything else is terrible

The Ugly: Outside of an injury, there is zero chance of Ortiz being dropped in the order. Which means if he struggles all year (not an unfair thought), he’ll be taking almost 75-100 plate appearances away from the likes of Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and JD Drew or whoever might be currently better suited to the 3rd hole.

Rocco Baldelli – D
He is the right handed bat the Red Sox needed so much last year. Unfortunately, he hasn’t hit, and has already been on the DL. Thank God he’s cheap.
Jed Lowrie, Chris Carter, Jonathan Van Every, Gil Velazquez – INC.

Pitchers
Jon Lester – B-
If the grade seems high, it’s because I’m shocked his results aren’t better than what they are. His underlying peripheral stats show that he’s being killed by his defense and that ugly bitch mistress BABIP. The only real red flag so far this season has been the home runs, which he’s been allowing at an uncomfortable rate.

Josh Beckett – B-
If the grade seems high, it’s because I’m shocked his results aren’t better than what they are. His underlying peripheral stats show that he’s being killed by his defense and that ugly bitch mistress BABIP. The only real red flag so far this season has been the walks, which he’s been allowing at an uncomfortable rate.

Tim Wakefield – A
I dare anyone to say he hasn’t been fantastic so far.

When Wakefield finally retires, we might see the death of the knuckleballer in major league baseball. Starting in 1905, Eddie Ciccotte begat Jesse Haines, Haines begat Ted Lyons, Lyons begat Gene Bearden, Bearden begat Hoyt Wilhelm, Wilhelm begat Wilbur Wood, and the Niekros, they begat Tom Candiotti, Candiotti begat Wakefield.

There is currently no one I can find who throws the knuckleball that looks like they will have any kind of career.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – D
Blame the WBC, but a tired shoulder doesn’t lead to the amount of homers he’s been surrendering. What’s more likely is that his nibbling at the hint of trouble is catching up to him, and his pitches that aren’t being taken are getting smoked. I’m optimistic he will be able to turn it around, since in his return game against the Mets he challenged hitters more, and would have left having only surrendered 2 runs if not for the utterly destructive force of Julio Lugo behind him.

Justin Masterson – C
He cannot consistently get lefties out, which means that he probably will never be more than a league average starter. There is a good amount of value in that, but Masterson’s ability to throw hard, get strike outs and ground balls could turn him into Derek Lowe circa 99-00 which would make him the most valuable reliever in the American League.

Brad Penny – C-
Without the Red Sox offense, he’d be sitting at home, watching re-runs of Who’s the Boss while dreaming of a life that doesn’t so closely resemble hell.

Takashi Saito – B-
He’s old, and he’s struggled from time to time, but considering the risk involved (both salary and roster spot), the Red Sox have done much, much worse in the bottom of the pen.

Hideki Okijima – B
His strike out rate is unsustainable compared to his career norms, but his early season struggles have lead to a higher walk rate also.

Okijima has been with the Sox for three years, and for three years, he’s started out slow, and then been virtually unhittable. He’s a victim of his own expectations at this point, where the only thing to really worry about is when the shoe will drop. I doubt it does as long as he can physically stay on the mound.

Manny Delcarmen – B+
Close game, 7th inning. After a week of pitching well, Francona taps his right arm calling for Delcarmen with a man on 2nd with no outs. First guy strikes out. Second guy walks. Third guy flies out to deep right with the runners tagging. Fourth guy walks after Delcarmen nibbles on the 8th pitch. Fifth guy strikes out.

Manny being Manny

Ramon Ramirez – A-
I’m not generally a big fan of trading established, valuable position players (Crisp took a lot of pressure off Ellsbury last year by virtue of not dropping off at all when he answered the call), but Ramirez has been fantastic.

His hit rate is low compared to his K-rate, but the contact he gives up isn’t strong contact. His stuff can only accurately be described as filthy, looking almost unhittable at times. When you add in his age (27…young, but past the pitching danger zone), and contract (pre-arb!), Ramirez is certainly worth the Coco redundancy.

Jonathan Papelbon – B+
He’s looked awful at times, suffering from the same rockhead disease that afflicts Beckett, but you can’t argue with his results.

Much like Okijima, he’s a slave to his own previous excellence. There are very few relievers that can be as good as Papelbon has been over the last 3 years over 1 season…let alone 4. His walk rate is up, to be sure, but he’s still not giving up many hits…not many homers…many strikeouts. He still hasn’t blown a save, and has allowed 2 runs on the year.

Odd trivia: Of all the pitchers in the bullpen, Papelbon and Delcarmen have faced the most with 84.

Javier Lopez – F
You know what happens when you walk everyone, don’t get ground balls, and don’t strike anyone out?

The pitching version of Julio Lugo. He’s an awful right fielder too.

Hunter Jones, Daniel Bard, and Michael Bowden – Inc.

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By Jimmy, 5/21/2009 11:47 am

Our resident Donald Sutherland look-alike will officially begin his 2009 season today.

Future Hall of Famer John Smoltz will throw roughly 50 pitches for the Greenville Drive, Boston’s low Single-A affiliate in the Sally League.

The question now presents itself: when Smoltz is ready to return in a few weeks or so, where will he pitch?  Whose spot will he take?  As solid as Brad Penny has been recently, he’ll probably find himself in a long relief / 6th starter / swing man role, similar to the job Julian Tavarez had during his stint here.

Of course, we’ll need to see how the old man fares in his rehab effort before we pencil him into the rotation.

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By Jimmy,

Attention all Pink Hats, I have some great news: Jacoby Ellsbury puts out.

That’s right, Jacoby Ellsbury tied the MLB record for put-outs by an outfielder in one game in Boston’s win last night.  Among the co-record holders is Lyman Bostock.  Let’s hope Ellsbury has a more favorable career arc than Lyman.

Putting aside mundane records that nobody will remember 3 days from now, the true story of last night was the performances of Jason Varitek and David Ortiz.

Varitek’s signing was universally bemoaned by every rational Red Sox fan this offseason. Well, wouldn’t you know it, he’s doing just fine at the plate.  In the past, his major offensive weakness was hitting as a left-hander against right-handed pitching.  This year, he’s had some success at muscling the ball for extra bases against righties (11 XBH in 98 plate appearances).  It’s not exactly Josh Gibson numbers we’re talking about, but he sure as hell has exceeded my expectations thus far.

As for Ortiz, he of course hit his first home run to center field, and added a double that may have been HR #2 in some other parks.  We’ll see how he progresses in the next few weeks, but last night probably alleviated a Giles Corey sized weight off his chest at the very least.

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By Jimmy, 5/20/2009 6:35 am

42-year-old Tim Wakefield continues to make my bearish prediction of his imminent collapse seem foolish, as his pitches gaily fluttered past the hottest-hitting team in baseball last night.  It’s 1995 all over again; it’s once again fun to watch Wakefield’s cooky unorthodox approach on the mound.  Who else would you rather pay to see right now?  The guy who throws 93 MPH and has a 6.00 ERA (i.e. every other starting pitcher on the team right now), or the wierd old man who throws as hard as a 12-year-old and actually wins games?

On a more negative note, David Ortiz has just 1 hit in his last 19 plate appearances.  If this continues, what’s the next step?  Other than the obvious move of taking away the coveted #3 spot (which should have been done already)?  How long do you let this happen before making someone like Chris Carter the regular DH?  Obviously, Ortiz gets more slack than the typical hitter, given his track record and his odd frequency of warning-track fly balls that just miss scraping the wall this season, but this is a problem that began as a snowball and is quickly becoming an avalanche.

Note:

Youkilis returns today, with Jeff Bailey likely getting shipped back to Pawtucket.

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By Jimmy, 5/18/2009 9:49 am

0.90 ERA in 60 combined innings pitched thus far.

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By Jimmy,

When SS Nick Green threw that baseball 20 feet into the air during in the bottom of the ninth inning yesterday afternoon,  with it he threw away his status as a Boston folk hero.

In a way, it’s probably good that reality is setting in.  The fanbase began to get excited about Green in spring training, when the reports of him being “gritty” and “hard nosed” and “a gamer” started pouring in.  As we’ve learned time and time again, that type of thing only gets you so far.  You see, Green was never as good of a player as Julio Lugo.  Offensively, there is no question as to who is better:

Lugo – .271/.336/.391, 18.2% K rate, 26/35 SBs per 162 games
Green – .247/.315/.356, 26.6% K rate, 3/8 SBs per 162 games

Defensively, it’s about even.  If there is a difference, it certainly isn’t worth the offensive gap between the two players.

As much as I would have loved to see Green continue the Honus Wagner-like play he displayed over the first few weeks of the season, it appears that his carriage has unceremoniously turned into a pumpkin.  It’s time to let the better player assume shortstop duties.

NOTES:

Both Kevin Youkilis and Daisuke Matsuzaka should be returning this week, hopefully snapping the Red Sox out of the mini ice age they’ve stumbled upon during this road trip.

Michael Bowden’s AAA reign of terror continues, as he has now allowed only 19 hits in 42 innings (0.82 ERA).  He can’t keep this up given his pedestrian K and GB rates, but it’s been interesting to follow.

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By Jimmy, 5/12/2009 11:49 am

Here’s an early update on the top five prospects in each positional category (as ranked by me during the offseason).

Catchers

1. Dusty Brown: .259/.357/.329 at Pawtucket.  Still getting on base, but not hitting like he was last year.  Would probably make a adequate backup if something happened to Kottaras or Varitek.
2. Luis Exposito: .235/.309/.376 at Salem.  Not busting out of the gates like everyone had hoped.  Will probably take a couple of months to get used to the fact that Salem actually feels the effects of gravity, unlike his last home.
3. George Kottaras: currently backing up Varitek in Boston.  In true backup catcher tradition, he’s not hitting at all.  Unlike his predecessor, there is some potential in his bat.
4. Mark Wagner:  starting strong in Portland after a disappointing 2008.  He wants out of Vacationland.  Hitting .267/.441/.511.
5. Tim Federowicz: playing well among a relatively low level of competition in Greenville, SC.  He’s turning 22 in August, so the true test will come next year in Salem/Portland.

Corner Infielders

1. Lars Anderson: starting off slow, with an OPS of .663.  It’s cold in Portland, let’s see how he does when things warm up.
2. Michael Almanzar: looking quite advanced for an 18-year-old.  Striking out a bit much, but the poise will come over time.  Hitting .248/.305/.385 in Greenville.
3. Will Middlebrooks: the honeymoon period is just about over, as Will continues to struggle mightily.  Hitting an abysmal .125/.204/.188 in Greenville.
4. Dan Rizzo: hitting well.  Still only 19-years-old, still plenty of time to develop despite the medical setback last year.  The best 1B prospect in the system not named “Lars”.
5. Aaron Bates: now playing LF in Portland, and doing quite well, hitting .352/.410./.486.  Alas, given his lack of defensive ability and mediocre power, AAA might be his ceiling.

Outfielders

1. Josh Reddick: still raking, still looking like a legit MLB right field prospect.  Maybe J.D. Drew’s eventual replacement.  1.002 OPS in Portland.
2. Che-Hsuan Lin: looking overmatched in Salem, .153/.260/.188.  Really, really disappointing.  Hopefully he’ll find his stroke.
3. Ryan Kalish: has leapfrogged Lin on the prospect chart.  .277/.426/.455, the hamate issue looks to be ancient history.
4. Ryan Westmoreland: still recovering from surgery, has not played a game yet.
5. Zack Daeges: struggling in Pawtucket.  He’ll eventually start hitting there, but there’s not much hope for a MLB stint in this organazation given the presence of Jeff Bailey, Chris Carter, and Paul McAnulty ahead of him on the deptch chart.

Middle Infielders

1. Argenis Diaz: people rave about his glove, but he’s no slouch at the plate either.  Hitting .321/.369/.397.  Might be in Boston sooner than you think.
2.  Oscar Tejeda: struggles at Greenville continue.  Still very young (19), strong tools.  The jury will be out for a while on this one.
3. Yamaico Navarro: hamate issues will shelve this promising infielder until June.
4. Chih-Hsien Chiang: hitting well enough, but playing mostly LF and DH these days; should no longer be considered a 2B prospect.
5. Derrik Gibson: XST, Lowell bound.

Pitchers

1. Michael Bowden: dominating AAA.  Despite a lack of overpowering stuff, all signs point to him being at least a serviceable MLB starter in the future.
2. Daniel Bard: recently promoted after obliterating AAA competition.  His ceiling is that of a dominant Brad Lidge-esque closer.
3. Nick Hagadone: a year removed from TJ surgery, Hagadone is throwing his slider in extended spring training.  Still very much a prospect.
4. Junichi Tazawa: has performed as advertised in AA.  3.34 ERA.
5. Bryan Price: an ERA under 2 in Greenville.  At age 22, he’s too polished for the Sally League.

Honorable mention: Casey Kelly didn’t make this original list due to his odd SS/P role.  If I had to pick a position (even though he has performed very well at both), I’d call him a pitcher.  He’d probably be at least 4th on this list if that were the case.

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By Jimmy, 5/11/2009 11:21 am

When we previewed this team, we mentioned that their main strength would be the bullpen.  So far, we’ve been correct.

When you factor out the performance of Javier Lopez (mercifully set adrift by Theo Epstein yesterday), the bullpen has yielded an ERA of 2.53 in 92+ innings of work, only giving up 73 hits and 38 walks during that span.  The addition of Daniel Bard should make this group even better.

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By Jimmy,

5/10/09: Tampa Bay 3, Boston 4

Tying run on third base.  No outs.

It looks like another disaster in the making, 24 hours after the last disaster occurred, a double-digit loss on national television.  Are they going to do it again?  Are they going to lose in a way that will make my eyeballs bleed?  Can’t let the hitter make contact.  If the hitter makes contact, it’s a tie game.  If the hitter makes contact, it’s another sleepless Sunday night, and another excruciating Monday morning.  This is why you stock your bullpen with pitchers who can overpower the batter.  This is why your “situational relievers” shouldn’t be the quirky one-dimensional sidewinder who tries to induce the ground balls.

This is why you DFA Javier Lopez and call up a guy averaging 16.31 strikeouts per nine innings in AAA, a guy holding AAA hitters to a .115 batting average.  Last night’s strikeout-dependent situation occurred in the 9th inning, but what if that same situation arose in the 7th inning?  What if Delcarmen and Ramirez had both pitched over 1 inning the previous night, and you absolutely needed a guy who can make the hitter swing-and-miss?  Now, you have that guy.

Notes:

In his last 19 games, David Ortiz has hit .261/.391/.420.  The bat we know and love still hasn’t arrived, but he’s getting on base and providing average DH production.  Baby steps…

From the “Thank F*%$ing God” Department: Pedroia’s groin strain should only cause him to miss one game.

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By Jimmy, 5/7/2009 12:59 pm

We’ve been reading the stories for years.  The fluff pieces on Manny’s dedication to the art of hitting. How his savant-like success at the plate was due to hours of studying film and working on his swing.  And you know what?  As far as I’m concerned, those stories are still true.  But, as it turns out, he put something into his body that he shouldn’t have, and he was caught.

The word on the street is that Scott Boras and his evil team of orcs are preparing the “legitimate medical purposes” defense.  Even if it’s true, these players (and their agents) should be performing their due diligence before using anything that could possibly be construed as being in the gray area.  So, I can’t really buy this type of explanation.  It was ridiculous when Andy Pettitte said it, it was ridiculous when Paul Byrd said it, and it’s ridiculous now.

In full disclosure, I’m not the type of guy to foam at the mouth when the subject of PEDs arises.  In fact, I don’t see anything inherently wrong with using them.  Like cigarettes, alcohol, marijuana, or any type of drug…the person ingesting this substance is owning the risk.  But, it’s against MLB rules.  So, it’s cheating.  Just like throwing a spitball, it’s against the rules of the game.

As Red Sox fans, you’re probably going into cover-your-ass mode and asking yourself is: when did he start using them?  If you believe his statement, it was a very recent one-time thing.  But, can you really buy that?  If I had to venture a realistic guess, I’d say that the reality is probably one we will not like.  Just putting myself in his shoes, why would he start using banned substances after the testing policies have grown exponentially?

But, it’s all speculation.  All we know is that which has been proven: Manny recently used a PED of some sort.

One thing is for certain: the debate over whether or not trading Manny for Jason Bay was a good move…well, there is no longer any debate.

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By Jimmy,

Cleveland 9, Boston 2

The Red Sox have made a career out of brutalizing Carl Pavano, a native son from Connecticut (the good side of Connecticut).  Carl has become something of a walking punchline after the hilarity of his expensive tenure with the New York Yankees, and he came into last night’s contest with a 7.46 ERA on the season.

In the second inning, the game appeared to be headed in the direction of a double-digit Red Sox rout.  But, just like that, the Boston bats were flicked off like a light switch.

The Sox hope to wake up against another guy who has struggled mightily in recent years, one-time top prospect Jeremy Sowers.

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By Jimmy, 5/6/2009 11:57 am

Michael Kay, as you may or may not know, is a television broadcaster for the New York Yankees on the YES Network (baseball’s Al-Jazeera).  Kay is known for his high degree of professionalism and objectivity.  I swear, you can’t even tell he’s a Yankee broadcaster when listening to him.  He’s that objective.

Sure enough, during yesterday’s game, Kay graces his viewers with this beauty of a quote describing the record of the Boston Red Sox.  Paraphrasing:

“The Red Sox have a record of 17-10.  But, that record is skewed by their 11 game winning streak.”

Skewed. SKEWED!  This is the level of analysis I strive to one day achieve.  A winning streak skews a team’s record.  Boston’s 11 game win streak is just an aberration, a bastardized blip on the far corner of a scatter plot.  It shouldn’t count.  Those games should be stricken from any type of Pythagorean record calculation.  If Bill James were analyzing the 2009 Red Sox, he would probably subtract all 11 of those wins, because they simply skew the team’s true record.

In the Michael Kay School of Quantitative Analysis, Joe DiMaggio’s true batting average in 1941 is something like .275, because that 56 game streak is skewing the rest of his numbers.  Rocky Marciano’s entire career is one giant sample error. Ect.

Your Boston Red Sox.  17-10 (but they should be 6-10).

Postscript: Kay did pick a Player Of The Game from last night’s contest.  Which player do you think he picked for this award?  If you guessed “the starter who gave up 4 runs in 5+ innings, leaving the game before 6 relief pitchers were needed to finish the loss” you would be correct!

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By Jimmy, 5/5/2009 6:33 am

Boston 6, New York 4

Sometimes, a manager will try to get ejected to “fire up” their team.  I’ve seen Jim Leyland do this a handful of times; he’ll walk out onto the field knowing full well that he is going to get tossed.  It’s an art form; guys like Leyland make a show of it, putting on a performance for the fans and the team.  Does this actually help the team’s performance?

Last night, Joe Girardi walked out onto the field to argue the audacity that was a third strike call against the Derek Jeter.  Since Derek Jeter “knows how to win”, it is illogical to conclude that Jeter would allow himself to not swing at a strike, which is an act clearly counterproductive to winning, so, therefore, the pitch must have been a ball.  Girardi, following the obvious logic stream I just highlighted, was rightfully incensed, and chose to storm the field.  Girardi isn’t dumb, so he probably realized that walking onto the field to argue balls and strikes is basically an automatic ejection.  He wanted to get tossed.  And it worked.  Johnny Damon…gone.  The struggling Mark Teixeira…gone.  Did Girardi’s ejection have some sort of effect on Damn and Teixeira?  Did it disrupt Lester’s rhythm?  I would guess the latter is more likely.

Anyway, the Sox held on, thanks to some clutch hitting from our favorite mild-mannered Canadian.

Notes:

Youkilis left the game with a sore back.  Let’s face it: he’s not a spring chicken anymore.  You know you’re getting old when the rain causes back injuries.

Julio Lugo was essentially benched by Terry Francona after botching a few plays in the field upon his return.  I actually think he can outhit Nick Green fairly easily, but you don’t want to have a guy playing SS when he’s this rusty.  Take a couple of days off, grab a coach, grab a fungo bat, and go take a few grounders.  By “a few” I mean 400,000.

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By Jimmy, 5/4/2009 11:43 am

Although Brad Penny was decent in yesterday’s loss to the Rays, every time I see this guy step out onto the field my mind starts scanning the list of contingency plans.  Luckily, there are several of them, one of whom has been flying under the radar thus far in 2009.

Clay Buchholz was abysmal in his rookie campaign last year, but even though he allowed more runs than a bottle of Ex-Lax, you could tell from his peripheral numbers (K/9, BABIP) and from watching/analyzing his pitches that the ability was still there.  He just needed a little more seasoning, a little more experience, before coming back up the to The Show.

How is he doing so far for AAA Pawtucket?

20 innings
11 hits (1 HR)
18/9 K/BB
.153 BAA

He appears to be handling his current level of competition just fine.  If another starter is needed, it comforting to know that in addition to Bowden and Masterson, a guy who was once considered by some to be the best pitching prospect in the game is just about ready to contribute at the major league level.

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By Jimmy,

Tampa Bay 5, Boston 3

I’m sure there will be a lot of angst over the fact that Carl Crawford stole 9 bases against the Red Sox in this 4 game series, including 6 yesterday afternoon.  While I certainly wish Jason Varitek was more adept at preventing SBs, he doesn’t really deserve a large piece of the blame pie for yesterday’s humiliating debacle.

1) Brad Penny (who actually was sharp and looked like the guy Theo Epstein and John Farrell were hoping they were getting) is an easy pitcher to steal against.

2) Carl Crawford is an elite base stealer.  He now has 17 on the season without being caught once.

Here are the other catchers Crawford has victimized for SBs this season:

Jose Morales, MIN (career CS %: 32)
Kurt Suzuki, OAK (career CS %: 32)
Rob Johnson, SEA (career CS %: 23)
Corky Miller, CHI (career CS %: 35)
A.J. Pierzynski, CHI (career CS %: 24)
Jorge Posada, NYY (career CS %: 29)
Chad Moeller, BAL (career CS %: 25)

You can see a couple of things here.  First, Crawford can take on anyone.  Miller, Suzuki, and Morales are all guys with strong arms, all of whom have failed to catch the speedy outfielder.  Second, I think you can get a sense that the degree of Varitek’s throwing problems may be overblown.  His career percentage (excluding yesterday) is 25%, and he has thrown out 28% this year (excluding yesterday).  These numbers are almost status quo in the AL, where the league average is 24% this year (excluding yesterday).  I now am going to try to exclude yesterday from my memory, forever.

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By Jimmy, 5/1/2009 11:02 am

Pre-season rankings are in parenthesis.

1) Los Angeles Dodgers (2) – I say this without an ounce of sarcasm or hyperbole: Manny Ramirez might be the best hitter in baseball history.

2) St. Louis Cardinals (7) – Of course, St. Louis fans would disagree with the above statement, and they certainly have a cogent argument to make for their guy.

3) Boston Red Sox (1) – You know what happens when you get only 1 hit in a 13-0 loss?  You get downgraded, that’s what f***ing happens.  I’m not too worried about the rotation, but the #3 spot in that lineup is making my soul cry.

4) Philadelphia Phillies (8) – Defending champs are holding their own with a strong performance from new acquisition Raul Ibanez, picking up the slack from a disappointing month for Cole Hamels.

5) New York Yankees (5) – Given what they’ve been through in terms of injuries and other stuff, the troglodytes can’t be too upset about how their team has fared thus far.

6) Toronto Blue Jays (10) – Marco Scutaro could be the best offensive shortstop in the American League.

7) Chicago Cubs (3) – Whats up with Geovany Soto?  Hitting only .109/.268/.130 thus far.  The entire Cubs pitching staff has hit better as a group (.149 BA).

8) Tampa Bay Rays (4) – Staggered a bit in the middle of April.  They sure love playing the Red Sox though, don’t they?

9) New York Mets (6) – Mike Pelfrey squeaked by with a low K rate in 2008.  Now it appears to be catching up with him.

10) Kansas City Royals (19) – Zack Greinke is doing the impossible: making one of my preseason predictions seem intelligent and well thought-out.  Keep it up, buddy.

11) Detroit Tigers (15) – It’s unfortunate that Rick Porcello was rushed to the majors.  Still, the Tigers are in decent shape, playing above .500 while waiting for Magglio’s bat to wake up.

12) Arizona Diamondbacks (9) – Stephen Drew is one streaky hitter, kind of like his older brother…

13) Anaheim Angels (11) – The bullpen here has been terrible, but this should turn around eventually.  Don’t expect Torii Hunter to play at this level all season long, though.

14) Minnesota Twins (13) – Still waiting for Delmon Young to emerge.  As of now, it looks as if they were really bent over on that trade with Tampa Bay.

15) Atlanta Braves (14) – Kenshin Kawakami has been disastrous, but help is on the way in the form of AAA phenom Tommy Hanson.  Hanson shut down the Pawsox last night, and is on a MLB fast track.

16) Florida Marlins (25) – I’m willing to admit that I seriously undervalued this team (their rotation, in particular) in my pre-season evaluation.  However, I also think people got a little too exited about them during their little run out of the gate.  Long season, marathon, ect. ect.
17) Milwaukee Brewers (17) – Yovanni Gallardo will be in the Cy Young discussion in a few months.

18) Cincinnati Reds (18) – Only one guy on the team is hitting (Joey Votto).  When the rest of the team wakes up, the NL Central will start to get interesting.

19) Cleveland Indians (12) – Just a brutal start to the season, highlighted by the expected putrescent performances from Carl Pavano.  Grady Sizemore has yet to heat up, and when he does, things should pick up a bit in Cleveland.

20) Texas Rangers (22) – Aside from Kevin Millwood, that rotation is getting beat up pretty badly.  That’s not really surprise, I suppose.

21) Baltimore Orioles (24) – With Greg Zaun hitting .111/.238/.185, the arrival of You Know Who is nigh…

22) Chicago White Sox (26) – Whatever breakfast cereal Carlos Quentin ate in the past 2 years, I’d like to try some.

23) Oakland A’s (16) – Several of the guys who were question marks going in (Chavez, Giambi, Cahill) have been awful.  Not a good sign for a team depending on several variables to go their way in order to contend.

24) Seattle Mariners (27) – Russ Branyan has awoken from his 10 year slumber.  Bow before him.

25) Houston Astros (20) – Lance will eventually start hitting, but the poor start underscores the dangers of counting on 1 or 2 players to carry your offense.

26) San Francisco Giants (29) – Jonathan Sanchez is pitching well.  5 years ago, who would have guessed that Randy Johnson and Barry Zito would be the weak links in a MLB rotation?

27) Pittsburgh Pirates (28) – The starting rotation has been lights out in Pittsburgh, casting a ray of light on a downtrodden franchise.

28) San Diego Pirates (30) – Away from Petco, Adrian Gonzalez has a career line of .300/.364/.553.  I imagine there are not too many people trying to leave San Diego, but I’m guessing he might be one of the few.

29) Washington Nationals (21) – Yeah, I may have been a little too giddy about the Nats’ chances to begin the year. I will spare them the indignity of the #30 rank for now.

30) Colorado Rockies (23) – They should play a little better once Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki snap out of it, but that pitching staff is in for one long, brutal ride in 2009.