Brad Penny: Not As Bad As We Thought?

By , 5/26/2009 9:42 am

Here’s something you might find surprising.  It sure as hell shocked me.

2009 FIP (FIP is “Fielding Independent Pitching”…just think of it as a smarter version of ERA):

Tim Wakefield: 4.95
Brad Penny: 4.77

That’s right.  Over the course of this season, Brad Penny has been a better starting pitcher than Tim Wakefield, according to the FIP numbers after last night’s win over Minnesota.  The same Brad Penny who makes you groan in agony after discovering that he is scheduled to pitch the game you have tickets for next week.  The same Tim Wakefield who has his own brand of wine and has been elevated to sainthood by the Boston community.

Believe it or not, the guy has had one of the better fastballs in the American League.

Top 10 Average Fastball Velocities in 2009, AL Starters:

  1. Justin Verlander, DET (95.4)
  2. Edwin Jackson, DET (94.5)
  3. A.J. Burnett, NYY (94.4)
  4. Josh Beckett, BOS (94.1)
  5. C.C. Sabathia, NYY (93.8)
  6. Felix Hernandez, SEA (93.8)
  7. Zack Greinke, KCR (93.3)
  8. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL (93.2)
  9. Brad Penny, BOS (92.8)
  10. Jon Lester, BOS (92.7)

Most of the guys on this list are pretty good pitchers, aren’t they?  Brad Penny hasn’t been getting ground balls like he did in his NL days, but if we expect that his GB% will revert to the mean (minus an adjustment for facing DHs instead of pitchers), we can probably expect him to continue to be a solid back-end starter.

NOTES:

Somewhat related to Brad Penny: Pawtucket starter Clay Buchholz took a perfect game into the 9th inning last night before giving up a single.  The one-time top prospect continues to knock on Fenway’s door.

Also somewhat related to Brad Penny: John Smoltz has been sighted in the Granite State.  He’ll make a rehab start tonight for the Seadogs when they take on the New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

In terms of pitching depth, Theo Epstein’s cup spilleth over.  It’s amazing how quickly that can change, so let’s savor the moment.

categories Game Recaps, General, Red Sox Analysis

One Response to “Brad Penny: Not As Bad As We Thought?”

  1. » Papelbon, Red Sox hang on for 6-5 win over Twins pullman washington says:
    6/6/2009 at 8:11 pm

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