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By Jimmy, 11/30/2009 2:26 pm

His baseball columns are sometimes out of touch, but when Globe writer Bob Ryan wrote a recent column criticizing the Red Sox for not retaining the services of Alex Gonzalez for one more season, he hit the nail on the head.

Gonzalez, a career.282/.315/.436 hitter at Fenway Park and possibly the best fielding SS in baseball, would have made a perfect stop gap for the 2010 season, and the Sox let him slip away to a division rival for pocket change (relatively speaking).  When the team declined his $6 million option a few weeks ago, I assumed it was because they were working on bringing him back at a discount.  Apparently, that was not the case.  Gonzalez will be flashing leather north of the border in Toronto’s Rogers Centre, whilst the Boston Red Sox still have a hole between second and third base.

These days, the talk of the town surrounds Marco Scutaro. I voiced my stance on him here, and as more time passes I become more and more convinced that he is poison. A guy in his mid thirties with little track record at the position, a guy who had one decent season after an entire decade of mediocrity.  This is the guy who will be seeking a three year deal similar in size and scope to the one signed by Julio Lugo 3 years ago.  No, Theo.  In the words of Lord Humungous from the classic cinematic piece entitled The Road Warrior:  “Just walk away”.

As for the talk regarding Hanley Ramirez, it’s about as likely as an alien invasion.  Think about it from the Marlins’ perspective: what on earth could the Red Sox offer them that would make them trade away Ramirez?  He’s not just their franchise player…he’s their franchise.  Do you really think we could give them equal value by offering a starting pitcher one year removed from an ERA around 8, and a couple of 19-year-olds?  Acquiring one of the two power hitting 1B on the radar screen (Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez) is a more feasible goal.

So, when you take Scutaro and Ramirez out of the equation, we aren’t left with much.  Khalil Greene is a guy who shouldn’t be asking for much in terms of years or money, and is in a position to prove his worth in a short-term stint, especially with a team that plays in a hitter-friendly environment like Fenway.  He’s coming off a terrible season, but might be worth a gamble as he’s been decent with both the bat and the glove in past years.  He might be worth a 1-year deal with a player option.  If he’s terrible, the team can look to Jed Lowrie or Tug Hulett to pick up some of the slack.

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By Jimmy, 11/25/2009 7:04 pm

According to a reporter from the KC Star, the Sox have acquired Timothy Hulett from the Royals for a PTBNL.

Hulett is a versatile utility guy who can play all over the infield and outfield (including SS). Combine that with the fact that he answers to the name “Tug”, and I believe my Gritty-Meter just exploded.

He hasn’t been able to hit major league pitching yet, but did manage to hit .291/.384/.473 last year in AAA (granted, it was the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League).  Hulett’s career OBP in the minor leagues is hovering around .400, so it’s safe to say that he would probably be an improvement over Nick Green were he to fill that role.

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By Jimmy,

We’ve come a long way from Zoilo Versalles.

Zoilo, of course, was the gritty (oh, wait, Zoilo doesn’t quite fit the characteristics of a “gritty” player.  Let’s go with “fiery” instead) shortstop on the 1965 Minnesota Twins who managed to win the MVP Award while hitting .273/.319/.462.  It wasn’t too long ago that a shortstop could lock up the MVP award by having a decent year at the plate coupled with a Gold Glove, even when there are players who contributed more to their team’s success.

But, we don’t need to go all the way back to 1965 to find these questionable award recipients, do we?

1983: LaMarr Hoyt of the Chicago White Sox wins the Cy Young Award over Toronto’s Dave Stieb, who pitched more innings and had a higher ERA+ by over 30 points.  But, LaMarr had TWENTY FOUR WINS, he knew how to win ballgames, simple as that I tells ya!  When Hoyt steps up on that mound, he just channels Iron Joe McGinnity, he just knows how to scatter runs around the board.  He wills his team to victory!

1987: Steve Bedrosian of the Philadephia Phillies wins the Cy Young Award while throwing only 89 innings.  But, no pitcher in the league won 20 games, which means that pitchers simply did not know how to win.  Steve had FOURTY SAVES, the magic number, and he had a stereotypical 1980′s closer beard, thick and brambly, just like Bruce Sutter and Jeff Reardon and a slew of other guys who were too shitty to be starters!

1991: Terry Pendleton of the Atlanta Braves wins the MVP award over Barry Bonds (the skinny, 5-tool version of Barry), Ryne Sandberg, and about 10 other more deserving candidates.  But, the Hot-Lanta Braves went WORST TO FIRST, BABY!  They are a relevant story again, selling hats and jerseys by the truckload, so we need to have someone from this team win the MVP.  It might as well be the guy with the highest batting average!

There are other examples, such as Barry Zito, and as recently as 2 years ago, Jimmy Rollins.

So, you could imagine my surprise when I agreed with all four Cy Young And MVP winners this year.  The Cy Young recipients both made history for having the lowest win totals for a starting pitcher honoree in their respective leagues.  Joe Mauer won the MVP over a big market shortstop with “intangibles” and overrated defensive skills.  Albuert Pujols was a softball, but his coronation capped off an impressive 4 for 4 run for the Baseball Writers Association of America.

We can only come to one conclusion here.  The BBWAA is…learning.  Like Johnny Five from Short Circuit, they are absorbing the data made available to them, using it to make prudent and logical decisions.

Fascinating.

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By Jimmy, 11/19/2009 2:16 pm

Left fielder Jason Bay has rejected Boston’s latest offer of 4 years and roughly $60 million dollars.

With the exclusivity deadline looming at midnight tonight, it appears that the Sox will now be forced to compete with other teams if they wish to retain Bay’s services.  I’d imagine that Bay’s agent will soon be getting a visit from Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb, armed with daddy’s blank checkbook.   Who knows, maybe baseball’s version of Captain Pike will join his sons on the visit?  One beep for an additional $5 million dollars, two beeps for each additional year?

At this point, the Sox will have to think long and hard about making a run at Matt Holliday.  In a vacuum, I’d prefer Bay, as he’s proven that he can play in Fenway Park just as well as he can in any stadium.  However, letting Bay go and signing Holliday would at least net the team an extra draft pick.  With Billy Wagner’s probable departure, that would leave the Sox with 4 draft picks before the second round. Not a bad consolation prize.

I plan on running a more detailed comparison of Bay and Holliday.  Realistically, I’ll have this up on Monday.

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By Jimmy, 11/18/2009 10:53 am

Let me first say one thing.

Forget about steroids.

Forget about the cream, the clear, HGH, andro.  Brother, you’ll drive yourself crazy if you let these things weigh on your mind as a fan. Why put yourself through the aggravation?

I’ll try not to soapbox for too long here, but why would you place any credence on the arbitrary line in the sand drawn by the federal government or MLB, a line separating “good” training methods from “bad” training methods? Because Americans have no sense of moderation, the feds make it illegal to purchase certain things, thereby creating crime and black markets (and I’m not just talking about steroids). But, that’s a chicken/egg sort of argument, isn’t it? Maybe we have no sense of moderation because this shit is illegal, and most people can’t consult a legitimate provider or expert before using them?

As a fan, don’t allow Bud Selig or the FDA tell you what to think about subjects like this. Just watch the games, and enjoy.

Now, let’s get to the subject at hand.  The reason for the above tangent is that both of the contenders for LF of the Decade have, obviously, ingested substances that are frowned upon by MLB. Both guys have also hit a ton of home runs, a fact that some people may believe correlates to their substances of choice.  I want to factor this out right away, for a variety of reasons, the least of which is that we have no idea which players did not use these substances.

I’ll be using pure Runs Created here (RC), assuming that both guys were butchers in the field, a factor greatly overshadowed by what they did at the plate.

Manny will always be one of my favorite players of all time. I don’t think I’d be making a huge leap to suggest that he was the guy most responsible for those two recent World Series championships won by the Red Sox.

However, what Barry Bonds did during the first 5 years of the decade is just downright inhuman. His statistics page looks like it’s rife with typos, like someone mistakenly typed a bunch of 2′s where 1′s should be. As likeable as Manny was and as dislikeable as Bonds may have been, this type of performance simply cannot be objectively ignored.

LF of the Decade: Barry Bonds

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By Jimmy, 11/17/2009 1:14 pm

This may be a difficult notion to consider after witnessing a team who hastily signed three Type A free agents win the World Series, but given the superiority of the 2011 free agent class over this one, it may be wise for the Red Sox to exercise some fiscal responsibility in the coming winter months.

I’ll identify a couple of names that may be tantalizing, but aren’t worth the money they are seeking.

1) Marco Scutaro – SS

Yes, the Red Sox have a gaping, bleeding wound between second base and third base.  This wound is best treated with cheap gauze, not fool’s gold.

Scutaro had a pretty good season in 2009 while playing shortstop for the Blue Jays.  The problem is, Marco has a long track record of sub-par play before his one good year, and he turned 34 last month.  Scutaro is likely seeking a 3 year deal, which means the Sox would be paying him until his 37th birthday.  Not to mention, he’s a Type A free agent, so the Sox would lose their first round draft pick to division rival Toronto.

Well, you tell me. Which of the seasons below seems like an outlier?

Also, here’s some trivia.  Can you name the full-time 35-year-old shortstops in the majors last year?  There were 2.  Hint: one plays on the Yankees, and he should have been moved to left field 3 years ago. The other plays for the Astros, and has supplemented his durability with lots and lots of…er… “Vitamin b-12 shots”…cough cough.  Both are likely Hall of Famers.  Do we think Scutaro the type of player who will be joining this prestigious group?

Hey, I’ll propose another free agent idea for shortstop.

This guy has career averages of .277/.340/.402, similar to Scutaro’s. His career OPS+ is 92, exactly the same as Scutaro’s.  His UZR is about even, similar to Scutaro’s.  This guy even manages to steal bases, and is 3 years younger than Scutaro.  Sounds good right?  Sign him to a long-term deal, right?

Who is that player?  His name is Julio Lugo, circa December 2006.  No need to make the same mistake twice.

Throw a 1 year deal at Alex Gonzalez (the devil we know), and see what Jose Iglesias and Yamaico Navarro do in the minor leagues.  Iglesias is currently hitting .277/.329/.431 in the Arizona Fall League, and Navarro will be repeating AA Portland this season, and could be looking at a mid-season promotion to AAA if he storms out of the gate early.

To be continued…

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By Jimmy, 11/16/2009 9:54 am

November of 2009 hasn’t exactly been the best month to be a Boston sports fan has it?  And we’re only half way through.  I would die a happy man if I was not subjected to 1 more minute of exposure of those corn-fed goobers that are the Manning siblings.

Anyway, I’ll have the LF of the Decade write-up shortly.  I feel like a piano has been dropped on my head at this point, so, give me a few hours.

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By Jimmy, 11/13/2009 10:50 am

Since the Yankees enjoy the benefits of modern day primae noctis on the free agent market, it is a given that either Matt Holliday or Jason Bay (the #1 and #2 most expensive free agents this offseason) will be patrolling their vast left field in 2010.  There are also grumblings that they plan on re-signing Johnny Damon and using him as a DH.

The odd man out in all of this is Hideki Matsui, an outfielder known for his consistent bat and his encyclopedic porn collection.  Would he be a good alternative to Jason Bay / Matt Holliday, if the Sox decide to save a bunch of money for the bountiful free agent market of 2011 while remaining competitive next season?

Some pros:

• On the road, he hit .282/.358/.618 last season.  In other words, his strong 2009 numbers are not an illusion created by that ill-conceived public urinal the Yankees play in (see Johnny Damon’s 2009 splits for an example of that).
• While he is left-handed, he hits lefties almost as well as righties.  He can hit in just about any situation.
• He hits fly balls all over the field, despite being left-handed.  Although he hasn’t had huge successes in Fenway throughout his career, there were close to 10 fly balls he hit in 2009 at Yankee Stadium which would have been doubles at Fenway.

The are some negatives:

• He is poor defensively.  However, it’s been proven many times over that the Red Sox can win with a stone-footed hack in LF, as long as he hits the ball.  Also, he would only need to play LF for 1 year, as David Ortiz is a free agent after the 2010 season.
• He is old, and will most likely be facing a steep decline soon.  The trick, as always, is trying to determine exactly when that decline will occur.  The Sox didn’t guess early enough in the cases of Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek, and there’s a chance that a Matsui contact could become a burdensome albatross for a year or two.
• He will not hit as many RF home runs in Fenway as he did in New York.  However, this should be somewhat offset by his LF fly balls turning into doubles.

He could DH while Jeremy Hermida plays LF if Ortiz is struggling.  He wouldn’t have too much trouble patrolling Fenway’s tiny left field.

It’s an option worth considering.  Matsui will cost a lot less than either Bay or Holliday, and will not be looking for a 5 year commitment.  He is not a Type A free agent, and would not cost the Red Sox any draft picks (Matt Holliday’s signing would cause the Sox to lost their 1st rounder).  A move like this would allow the Red Sox to focus more of their finances on the 2011 free-agent market, which includes heavyweights like Joe Mauer and Roy Halladay.

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By Jimmy, 11/12/2009 10:08 am

Not surprisingly, Jason Varitek exercised his $3 million player option to return to the Red Sox for one more year.

The one role I can see him being somewhat helpful in is as a backup who starts against left-handers only.  His name should never, ever be written on a lineup card against a right-handed starting pitcher. Even last year where he was terrible overall, Tek still managed to catch up with some pitches thrown by southpaws, as he hit .231/.336/.471 (108 OPS+)  in 122 plate appearances against lefties.

This would call for some additional strategy on the part of Terry Francona.  What I hope does not happen (but I fear that it might) is that Francona would have Varitek become Daisuke Matsuzaka’s personal catcher.  In order to fully utilize Varitek to the best of his abilities, this cannot happen.  The standard “start him every five games” approach would not be a good thing, as it would lead to Tek being grossly overmatched in many situations.

Say it with me, Tito: left-handers only.

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By Jimmy, 11/11/2009 3:36 pm

As you might expect, the Red Sox brass headed out of the annual GM meetings (not to be confused with the Winter Meetings, which occur in December and are usually much more eventful) without getting much done.

One interesting news tidbit to report: reliever Billy Wagner might be willing to accept arbitration.  The Sox will most likely offer it to him, as he is a Type A Free agent and it would net the team two draft picks if he declines.  However, if Wagner does accept arbitration, he’d probably win something in the realm of $12 million, making him the highest paid set-up man in the league.

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By Jimmy, 11/10/2009 5:55 pm

Apparently deciding that Tim Wakefield’s unique perpetual option (what I call a “gentleman’s option”) was no longer viable, the team has signed the ancient knuckleballer to a base of $5 million over two years.  It’s an edible incentive-laden contract, just in case Wakefield can no longer pitch.  If his chronic back problems become a career-ending issue, the $5 million is essentially a giant gold watch for an underappreciated legend.

As of right now, Wakefield is the default name in the #5 spot of the rotation, but with talks of the team pursuing Roy Halladay, John Lackey, Rich Harden, Felix Hernandez, among others, it’s clear that they would prefer not counting on him to make 20-25 starts in 2010.

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By Jimmy,

The Gold Glove Awards have basically been rendered meaningless by some insane picks over the years.  Shortstops with double-digit negative UZR, first basemen who play less than 1/3 of the year at the position, aging center fielders who can barely walk.  The odd choices would be funny if they weren’t so annoyingly predictable.

Let’s take a look at the American League picks as judged by UZR (with the exception of C and P due to lack of data):

Looks like the voters (a conglomerate of players, coaches, and managers) are batting .125 here.  They got it right at 2B, as Polanco led the league in UZR, just edging out Dustin Pedroia by 0.4 UZR/150.  The Longoria choice is defensible, though I think he may be headed into Jeter/Griffey territory with the name popularity.  He will bear watching once the glove starts to fade and his range suffers, as he definitely seems like the type of guy who will carry votes from sheep due to marketing.

I think Teixeira is a better defender than his paltry rating seems to indicate, so we’ll give the voters a mulligan there.

Much was made of Derek Jeter’s new found defensive skills.  I don’t know, something about him actually working to improve his defense in the off-season?  Wow, what dedication, what leadership.  You mean a professional shortstop earning the GDP of Kiribati on an annual basis actually decided to put in some fucking effort to improve his fielding skills?  An area that has been a major hole in his game for the past 5 years?  Christ, will wonders never cease. It’s the American way: get by on charm and bullshit for as long as possible, then start working hard once everyone around you pays attention and notices that they’ve been bullshitted.  Why didn’t this happen 5 years ago?  Maybe if the 2004 version of Jeter spent less off-season time applying penicillin and more time applying his glove, the $200 million machine would have won the amount of rings appropriate for the expenditures they have made.

Anyway, Jeter had a decent year in the field, but there were 4 other shortstops who were better with the leather in the AL.  Obviously, none of them really had a chance here.

I’d bet money that there are players/coaches who don’t even know the names Gutierrez and Sweeney, so it can’t really be a surprise that they are nowhere to be found on this list despite having outstanding years in the field.  Carl Crawford’s absence does surprise me.  I don’t expect him to beat someone like Ichiro or Torii in a popularity contest, but Adam Jones beating him is odd, and perhaps a point in the favor of those who wish to split up the OF awards between the actual three positions.  There’s nothing really interesting about three center fielders winning the award, and it’s sort of comparable to a shortstop winning the award at third base.

Side note: the 4th highest outfielder in AL UZR/150 is none other than our personal favorite, J.D. Drew.

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By Jimmy,

For the first time in over ten years, the Red Sox will begin the coming season with a primary catcher not named Jason Varitek.

The Sox declined Varitek’s team option for next season, and exercised their option on offensive juggernaut Victor Martinez.  Varitek will likely exercise his own $3 million player option for 2010, but it is now clear that his role will be very different than it was in previous years (assuming he even makes the team, which is certainly not a guarantee after the fossilized captain hit an anemic .157/.250/.239 in the second half of last year).

Per Theo Epstein:

“We’re going to really look for Victor to be an everyday catcher for us next year…We feel like that puts us in the best position to win with Victor catching as much as he can. The other spot we’ll have available is for more of a traditional backup. We’ll see what Tek’s decision is before we move forward.”

While this move seems like a no-brainer that just makes too much sense, it’s still nice to actually see it in writing, if you know what I mean.

This move instantly improves the 2010 team in comparison to the squad we watched over the first half of last year.  I’m not going to write Varitek’s eulogy yet, as there is a sizable chance he returns as the backup catcher in 2010.

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By Jimmy, 11/9/2009 9:55 am

The Red Sox declined a 1-year $6 million option on slick-fielding shortstop Alex Gonzalez this weekend.  Given the dearth of viable replacements in the organization, I find this move rather surprising.

There are several explanations I can think of:

1. The team has a tacit agreement in place with Gonzalez to re-sign him at a lower price.
2. Jed Lowrie’s wrist was recently reinforced with the same unbreakable metal alloy used to create Wolverine’s claws.
3. Epstein plans on fast-tracking 19-year-old Jose Iglesias (currently hitting .222/.286/.378  in the Arizona Fall League.
4. Nick Green is sleeping with someone else, someone with much more power than a sideline reporter.

Since the Red Sox are not the Seattle Mariners, we can scratch #3 off the list.  I think #1 is the most likely of the four options.  We’ll monitor this one closely.

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By Jimmy, 11/6/2009 10:19 am

Less than 24 hours after the 2009 MLB season officially ended, the Red Sox have begun constructing their 2010 club.  The team acquired Florida Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida for a couple of fringe left-handed relievers (Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez).

It’s hard to not like this deal from Boston’s perspective, as Hermida is only 25 and has a ton of upside.  In his first full season, he hit.296/.369./.501, but has been somewhat disappointing ever since. The Sox didn’t really give anything of immense value to Florida; so this looks like a case of the Marlins (notorious cheapskates) not wanting to pay for a guy who is in the arbitration stage of his career.

Here are a couple of reasons to be optimistic:

The downsides: he struggles a bit against left-handed pitching, he’s not exactly a defensive wizard.

Hermida would make a terrific 4th outfielder.  As a starting left-fielder, he’d probably be on the lower end of the American League spectrum, barring an immediate return to his 2007 form.  He’d be a palatable place-holder if the Sox upgraded the offense elsewhere (cough cough Adrian Gonzalez cough cough).

In somewhat related (but not unexpected) news, Jason Bay officially filed for free agency yesterday.  It will be fun to see how quickly that whole “down-to-earth Canadian nice guy” aura fades once negotiations start to heat up.

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By Jimmy, 11/5/2009 10:01 am

Since nothing much is happening in the baseball world, let’s briefly turn our attention to Causeway Street, where the Boston Celtics are currently undefeated (6-0) after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.

After reinforcing their bench with the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels, along with the signing of star point guard Rajon Rondo to a 5-year contract, the C’s are looking like a solid bet to finish the 2009/10 season as  one of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference.

You know what’s really impressive about the long-term successes of teams like the Celtics (and, similarly, the NFL’s Patriots)?  They manage to do it under a salary cap.  I mean, I suppose if there was no salary cap, they could go out and spend 80% more in payroll than the second highest salaried team in the league, and then they would be hard pressed to not win a championship every season.  While that might seem like fun at fist glance, eventually we would devolve into obnoxious fans with a sub-human sense of entitlement.

At that point, being a fan would no longer be interesting.

The Celtics face a true test in their next game, as they take on the Phoenix Suns, a Western Conference powerhouse.

COMING NEXT:

Baseball related posts (I promise).

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By Jimmy, 11/2/2009 10:18 am

Nothing much happening in the baseball world, aside from the usual tea leaf reading common among scribes this time of year.  We’ll be posting some in-depth analysis of the holes on the Red Sox roster (1B/3B, SS, LF, P), but for the next few days, I’ll let the ashes cool on the 2009 season.

Let’s take a glance at the eight guys the Sox have currently playing in the Arizona Fall League.

Iglesias has come back down to earth rather hard after his hot start at the beginning of the season.  He still is playing excellent defense according to the reports from people actually attending the games.

The one guy who has been opening eyes here is Richie Lentz, a 25-year-old reliever who posted a 12 K/9 in Double-A last season.  Lentz has a mid-90′s fastball, but has been plagued with control problems throughout his entire minor league career, but he’s had pinpoint command during the AFL thus far.  If he can continue to make the ball go where he wants it to go, Lentz could develop into a decent swing-and-miss reliever at the MLB level.

COMING UP:

• LF of the Decade.  It’s down to two of the most feared hitters in baseball history, both with their fair share of problems outside the batter’s box.