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By Jimmy, 12/30/2009 1:35 am

I think we might have stumbled upon the first transaction in baseball history that is bad for every single party involved.

Everyone directly and indirectly involved in this deal is worse off today than they were yesterday.

• This deal is bad for the Red Sox because: they will not receive a first round draft pick from the Mets, who were terrible enough to secure a protected pick in the amateur draft next June.  Also, they will certainly miss Bay’s bat in the middle of their lineup.  Yes, it would have taken some creativity to bring back the slugger, but Bay’s presence in the lineup in lieu of Jacoby Ellsbury (for example) would have been a nice bonus.
• This deal is bad for the Mets because: they just signed one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball to a four year contract.  In the National League, Bay will be forced to play in some of the most expansive outfields in the game into his late thirties, at which point he will be an extreme defensive liability.
• This deal is bad for Jason Bay because: the Mets are a terrible team, and New York is (in the words of Travis Bickle) an open sewer.  If you believe the reports of Boston offering a $60 million contract, Bay took a 10% pay raise to play for the worst franchise in the game.  Hey, whatever floats your boat.

For purely sentimental reasons, I’m a little bummed out about Bay’s departure, but practically speaking, he really had no place in Boston’s plans for the future. I am convinced that Mike Cameron will produce roughly what Bay would have given us in 2010, if you include defensive contributions to the package.

Let’s raise our glasses to a guy who nearly led the team to a repeat championship in 2008, and developed quite a strong fan following in his 1.5 years in a Red Sox uniform.

What can I say?  Enjoy Citi Field, I guess?

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 12/22/2009 7:52 am

Pete Abraham breaks down the final 2009 MLB payroll numbers here.

However, to get a true sense of the modern MLB environment, I think it’s best to visualize things.  I’ll just plop the numbers into a graph and let the data do the talking:

The salaries appear to be normally distributed (for the most part).  Sure, there’s an outlier, but what fun would life be without outliers?

Odds & Ends:

The Mike Lowell situation is about as awkward as can be.  But, to his credit, he seems to be saying all the right things.  I think he’d be a great fit as a backup corner infielder / DH who gets 300 plate appearances while spelling three regulars, but it’s unclear whether or not Lowell would accept such a role.  I do not believe in the slightest that the 2010 Red Sox will leave Fort Myers with Mike Lowell slotted in as a stater at 3B.

Just from reading the tea leaves and hearing Terry Francona’s unabashed man love for Casey Kotchman, it appears that even if no more moves are made, Lowell could still be the odd man out.

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By Jimmy, 12/17/2009 7:46 am

WEEI’s Alex Speier does a nice job here breaking down the Red Sox payroll as calculated by MLB when determining the Competitive Balance Tax (a.k.a. luxury tax).

The tax threshold this year is at $170 million, and after projecting assumed arbitration raises, the Red Sox are just about on the edge of that threshold.  Any other moves (Adrian Beltre, Nick Johnson, Adrian Gonzalez, etc.) would put the Sox over the limit and cause them to pay a 22.5% luxury tax on any amount above $170 MM.

In other words, when determining the cost of someone like Adrian Beltre, go ahead and multiply his salary demands by 1.225 to determine what he will really cost the Red Sox.

Notes:

This $170 million ballpark is not really uncharted territory for the Sox, as their 2007 World Championship team boasted a CBT payroll of around $165 million.  The team’s “true” payroll, as determined by places like Cot’s contracts and the number typically referenced by fans and media, will be closer to $145-$150 million.

The following significant salaries will be coming off the books after the 2010 season:

Julio Lugo’s estranged carcass – $9 million
Mike Lowell’s soon to be estranged carcass - $9 million (assuming trade rumors are accurate)
David Ortiz’ hopefully reanimated carcass – $13 million
Josh Beckett – $10.1 million (possibly re-signed)
Victor Martinez – $7.7 million (possibly re-signed)

Odds & Ends:

It’s good to be a professional athlete.  In no other circumstance would a man who resembles a bloated pelican be able to land this:

Welcome to Boston, Krista Lackey!

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By Jimmy, 12/16/2009 11:16 am

I’ll lead off with this portion of Ken Rosenthal’s article, just to temper expectations:

A deal is not close, and might not happen at all, sources said.

However, multiple sources are reporting the the Red Sox are officially gunning for San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez, an elite first baseman who might be among the top three sluggers in the game.

The speculation is that any deal would definitely include Clay Buchholz, and probably Jacoby Ellsbury as well.  One or more of the top minor league prospects in Boston’s organization would also be San Diego bound.

Adrian hit .306/.402/.643 (an OPS+ of 182) on the road last year.

At this point, it’s just smoke and no fire.  If/when there’s fire, I’ll update this.

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By Jimmy,

Free agent Aroldis Champan, a 21-year-old left-hander from Cuba, showcased his arm in a workout for representatives from 15 teams yesterday.  Among the representatives was Boston’s Craig Shipley, as the Red Sox have been interested in Chapman for months.

Technically, Boston already offered Chapman a major league contract worth around $15 million dollars, but that was before he switched agents.  In accordance with the insane brand of logic used by bloodthirsty lawyers, it’s as if the offer never happened.  The Sox now start their negotiations from scratch, and will be competing with a bunch of other franchises, including the Yankees.

In the workout, Chapman’s fastball ranged from 92-97 MPH, with some secondary pitches mixed in.  This is pretty impressive, considering it was done on a random day in December.  The velocity will likely increase during actual season, once Chapman has been throwing regularly in competition.  In the past (most notably, the World Baseball Classic), Chapman has been clocked in triple digits.  He’s very raw and will need some minor league seasoning, but will instantly become one of the top prospects in baseball as soon as he chooses a team.

Odd and Ends:

• Nothing new on the pending Lowell / Ramirez trade.  FOX’s Ken Rosenthal says the odds of the deal happening are greater than the odds of it falling through.
• Big Halladay trade yesterday, of course.  The spurned Yankees are claiming that the Blue Jays imposed a Yankee Tax on them during trade talks.  The persecution continues!  Cue the violin music!
• This new-look Red Sox team will not be cheap, and the luxury tax is a real possibility.  Actually, it could be the most expensive non-NY team in baseball history (they would likely still fall about $50 million short of the top MLB payroll, however).
• Two press conferences today, one for each new guy.  It would be great if Lackey threw a tantrum and trashed the media room for no reason whatsoever.

Comments (4)

By Jimmy, 12/15/2009 10:00 am

When taking a closer look at Mike Cameron’s profile as a player, it appears that there may be several reasons why the Red Sox front office decided to acquire this 37-year-old outfielder instead of shelling out top dollar to retain Jason Bay.

First, let’s look at the basics.  Cameron is known primarily for his glove, as he has been one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball over the past 10 years.  Although he is old, he is a tremendous athlete who has yet to experience much of a regression in his performance.  Offensively and defensively, he is a typical stat-head favorite.  His fairly low batting average and high strikeout totals might become a talking point for the uninformed barstool/WEEI types who dwell on such things, but Cameron has always produced where it counts: creating runs and preventing runs.

Now, let’s dig a little deeper.

Performance against left-handed pitching:
Last season, Cameron hit .271/.420/.534 in 150 plate appearances against lefties (147 OPS+).  With Jeremy Hermida’s 103 OPS+ in 370 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, this platoon (should the Sox decide to go that route) would give you a weighted average OPS+ of 116, a performance similar to Bobby Abreu and Nelson Cruz last season.

Targeting the Green Monster:
Cameron hits a lot of long fly balls to left field, and should benefit greatly from the shallow wall.  Here is a chart of the home runs he hit in 2009:

If you click on this link, you can see a chart of all of Cameron’s fly ball outs in Milwaukee’s Miller Park last season.  There are roughly a dozen outs that would have been doubles or home runs in Fenway.

As of right now, I think this is Boston’s best move of the offseason, in terms of value relative to dollars spent.  Cameron’s deal is for roughly $7.25 million per year over two years.  Two years seems like an appropriate amount of time to determine whether someone from the OF prospect group (Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, Ryan Westmoreland, etc.) will take that big step forward, or if the Sox need to outsource their corner outfield duties once again.

Comments (5)

By Jimmy,

Like a jilted lover, I do take some satisfaction in the fact that it was the Red Sox who officially severed the Jason Bay relationship, and not vice versa (as it usually is in these situations).

The Red Sox continue the shift of their core competencies from slugging & chugging to pitching & slick fielding, singing defensive vacuum Mike Cameron to a 2-year deal.

I’ll have more on this later.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 12/14/2009 6:49 pm

Kudos to Ed Price, whose credibility in the baseball internet world was bumped up a few notches when he first scooped this one.  All major outlets are now confirming that a physical did indeed take place, and a deal between the Red Sox and pitcher John Lackey is very close.

I have some mixed emotions here.  Frankly, Lackey is (was?) one of my least favorite non-pinstriped players.  I seem to remember a barrage of nonsensical blather spewing from his mouth on multiple occasions during post game interviews (both wins and losses).  Of course, if he actually is a member of the Red Sox, my evaluation of Lackey will unapologetically change from “loud mouthed half-wit” to “fierce, emotional competitor”.  Let’s face it; guys like Lackey, Joey Porter, and Rasheed Wallace are fun to watch if you happen to root for their teams, and despicable if you do not.

Anyway, let’s take a look at Lackey’s on field attributes.

Lackey, 31, is a big right-hander with four pitch arsenal.  His best pitch might be the curveball, which he uses roughly in roughly 25% of his throws (only two AL pitchers used the deuce more frequently last year: Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett).  He’ll also feature a slider and a changeup to supplement his above-average fastball, which he commands with very good accuracy (11th in the AL in BB/9 innings in 2009).

Some notes:

• Has struggled at Fenway Park throughout his career (5.75 ERA in 51.2 innings).  Of course, a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that the Red Sox have had some scary lineups between 2003 and 2009.
• Missed time with an elbow-injury at the beginning of 2009, but seemed to get better/stronger as the year progressed, which is a positive sign for a guy who was once a lock for 200 innings per year.  If you break his season down into thirds (9 starts each) it looks like this: first 9 starts: 5.9 innings per start, 5.06 ERA, next 18 starts: 6.8 innings per start, 3.29 ERA
• 3.12 ERA in 78 career playoff innings.
• Only started 1 game against the Yankees last year, but did well: a 7 inning, 2 run win

The terms of the contract are being reported as $85 million over 5 years.  That’s that annual average of $17 million per year, making Lackey the highest-paid member of the team.

My take: for some reason, the AAV of $17 million seems like a very, very big number to me.  I’ve known all along that Lackey was looking for a similar deal to A.J. Burnett, but I can’t help but feel some sticker shock here.  That’s a very big commitment to make for a guy who might be (just ballparking this) the 15th best pitcher in baseball.   It’s probably a sign that the inventory of available pitchers is thin; the next-most sought after free agent starter after Lackey is old friend Joel Pineiro.

It’s a relatively safe investment, since Lackey has been consistent and durable throughout his career (for the most part), but one can’t help but wonder what effect that $85 million commitment will have on the budget next winter, when several free agents of much greater value will be available.

In any case, the Red Sox are a much better team today than they were yesterday.  A Red Sox team anchored by pitching and defense is not something I am used to, but I am very much looking forward to witnessing them in action next spring.

Coming up: thoughts on LF, now that it appears that Jason Bay is gone.

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By Jimmy,

Online baseball reporter Ed Price tells us that the Red Sox will be giving John Lackey a physical.  I’m not sure what that means, exactly.  For Lackey’s sake, I hope it isn’t the same type of physical I was given when airport security pulled me into their windowless room last month.  I’m still walking funny.

I’m going to hold off before writing more on this matter, as I’m not very familiar with Ed Price, and his “tweet” is unconfirmed.  If this all comes to fruition, a more complete analysis will follow.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 12/10/2009 11:15 am

Adding to the pool of AAAA-caliber arms who will compete for low leverage bullpen roles this spring, the Sox have acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL.

Bonser, a right-hander, is a 28-year-old former 1st round draft pick who never lived up to his potential in Minnesota.  He missed all of last year after rotator cuff surgery.  That, in addition to the fact that he is a bit of a parade float (~260 pounds) indicates that we shouldn’t expect a whole lot from him.

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By Jimmy,

Despite Theo Epstein’s claim that nothing would get done before he left Indianapolis this morning, the Red Sox apparently have a preliminary deal in place with the Texas Rangers.  The deal would send Mike Lowell to Texas for 25-year-old catcher / first baseman Max Ramirez.  Of course, Lowell would be driving a Brinks Truck into Dallas; the Red Sox are offering to pay most of the remaining $12 million owed to Lowell.

Who is Max Ramirez?

A top hitting prospect at one time who originally was signed out of Venezuela by the Atlanta Braves.  Ramirez tore through the minor leagues up until he hit AAA a year ago, where he has stalled a bit.  He has demonstrated good plate discipline throughout his career (.398 OPB in the minor leagues).

Defensively, there is room for improvement, but he has the potential to be a little better than Victor Martinez behind the dish.  Ramirez threw out 24% of potential base stealers in AAA last season, along with 3 out of 15 in a small sample of MLB chances.  He did play 3 MLB games at first base, but the bulk of his professional experience is behind the plate.

I’ll have more on this later.

NOTE:

Amalie Benjamin reports that the Sox front office staff have made their exodus from Indianapolis.  Honestly, who can blame them?  It’s 2009.  I have the ability to take over a small African country with my cell phone.  MLB team officials should be able to collaborate without meeting in some dilapidated midwestern cow town.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 12/9/2009 10:38 am

Not much happening at the meetings thus far.  Just a few notes:

• Legendary reporter Peter Gammons, no doubt lured by the golden beacon of light emanating from Heidi Watney’s bosom, will be joining NESN and the MLB Network.
• Peter Abraham (an excellent addition to the local media, by the way) reports that the Sox will not be spending big money on additional bullpen arms after our relief corps was scalped by the Braves.  I agree with the strategy, for what it’s worth.  No need to spend $7 million on a guy who will throw 50-65 low-leverage innings.
• The Cardinals have signed Brad Penny.  Expect him to win 23 games, strike out 320 batters, and cure leukemia.
• Nothing new on Jason Bay, but I’ll keep you posted.  After the Figgins deal, I have a feeling that Seattle won’t be in serious contention to sign Bay, especially if they truly plan on signing Felix Hernandez to an extension.  It will probably come down to the Angels and Red Sox.

Stay tuned.

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By Jimmy, 12/8/2009 4:59 pm

Arizona.  A lovely place where water and non-cactoid flora are sparse.

And so is intelligence.

I’m sure you’ve heard the news of the three-team deal sending Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, a bunch of good young players to Detroit, and…wait for it, wait for it…Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks! If I could add music to this blog, you would be hearing a trumpet bleating “wah wah wahhhhhhhh” right now.

The way this trade nets out, Arizona essentially just traded two good, young pitchers for two different pitchers who are not as good and not as young.  As a result, the Yankees acquire a player who has a PhD in “Hitting Cheap Home Runs Over a Right Field Fence Located 150 Feet From Home Plate”-Ology.

Memo to Arizona GM Josh Byrnes (a Red Sox alum, oddly enough) thanks for taking the time to improve our competitors at virtually no cost to them.  No, really.  Thanks.

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By Jimmy,

Boston made a few moves to bolster their AAAA pitching crop.  Not exactly awe-inspiring moves, but fringe arms who can be counted on to not embarrass themselves when needed are something every organization needs.  Anyway, here are some guys who will most likely be visiting Slater Mill between games:

• Scott Atchison: A right-handed reliever from the Japanese leagues.  Throws strikes, low walk rate.  Has had much more success as a reliever after Hanshin converted him from a starter.  Possible Takashi Saito replacement.
• Kason Gabbard: Former Red Sox pitcher; you’re probably familiar with him.  Lefty with decent command, had a very difficult injury-plagued season last year.  Gives off sort of a Bronson Arroyo-esque “sensitive acoustic guitar player” vibe, which ought to please the Ellsbury T-Shirt wearing contingent of Red Sox Nation.
• Fabio Castro: Pure AAA filler.  A left-hander who doesn’t have dominant splits or a good K-ratio.  He’s roughly the same size as Dustin Pedroia, a trait you don’t see on the mound very often these days.

Also, on the Jason Bay front, Jon Heyman reports that there are three teams seriously pursuing the slugger (Sox, Angels, Mariners).  I’m thinking the Yankees might prefer Matt Holliday, a better fielder who will benefit more from the dimensions of The Toilet.

I’ll have more as it happens.

Comments (4)

By Jimmy, 12/7/2009 6:27 pm

Top Red Sox prospect Casey Kelly, a versatile player who has been both pitching and playing shortstop since his selection in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, has come to an agreement with the organization on his full-time role.

Are you ready? [drum roll................]

Casey is now exclusively a pitcher.

This is good news, albeit not very surprising.  As a pitcher, Kelly was one of the most promising arms in Low A ball last season.  As a hitter, the man couldn’t make solid contact with Kim Kardashian’s butt if he was swinging at it with an oversized red whiffleball bat.

Kelly as a pitcher: 95 innings, 65 hits, 74 Ks, 16 BBs, 2.08 ERA
Kelly as a hitter: 323 plate appearances, .219/.282/.336

Good choice, son.

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By Jimmy,

Today marks the beginning of the MLB Winter Meetings.

I can only imagine the collective reaction of every team’s front office personnel upon realizing that this year’s meetings are not to be held in Vegas, NYC, or Miami, but in Indianapolis.  Indianapolis, America’s gallbladder, in December.  Now that the average age for MLB general managers is roughly 23, you’d think MLB would throw these guys a bone and host the meetings in a city with some sort of pulse.    Hey, maybe that’s a sign of things to come for our Red Sox.  The meetings are being held in an uninspiring location, so perhaps we can expect some uninspiring results?

The expectations are high for Boston, after getting swept in the playoffs while our hated rivals coasted to a championship.  Most of the fanbase will be expecting the Sox to join their big-market colleagues in the annual pillaging of the free agent market.

My thoughts: the team’s #1 goal this week should be to address the corner-infield issue, either by pursuing a 1B or 3B. I’m one of those people whose head explodes when he hears the phrase “pitching is everything” (including all variations/iterations of that phrase, such as “you can never have enough pitching” or “it’s all about pitching” or “pitching, pitching, pitching”).  I truly believe that this team needs a bat first and foremost.

I’ll be covering the meetings as closely as I can, so stay tuned.

• Will Carroll, The Titan of Tendons, believes that Boston will be one of the busier teams this week.
• Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees are working on bringing back Andy Pettitte on an 8-figure deal.  Rumor has it that the deal includes incentives such as carrots and feedbags after each quality start, along with a signed copy of Tiger Woods’ latest book entitled The Secret to Cheating While Behaving Like a Pompous, Indignant Douche.
• More to come.
  

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 12/4/2009 11:40 am

Per Buster Olney:

2010: $5 million
2011: $5 million
2012: $6 million team option, $3 million player option ($1.5 million buyout if Marco opts in and Sox want out)

I had guessed $8MM in 2010, $8MM in 2011, and $8MM/$4MM in 2012, so this is a little better than I expected. At $5 million, Scutaro will be one of the cheaper position players on the field for the Sox in 2010.

Still, losing the 29th overall pick in the amateur draft isn’t ideal.  I’m pessimistic on Marco, but hopefully he’ll expose my stupidity in April.

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By Jimmy,

Blatantly disregarding my advice, the Red Sox have signed Marco Scutaro to a two year contract (plus a mutual option year).  Dollar amounts have yet to be disclosed, but I’d ballpark it at around $8 million per year, with a team $8MM/player $4MM option for the third year.

Scutaro (Venezuelan, not Italian) has been analyzed here in several posts, but now that this is apparently a done deal, let’s take a quick look at the pros and cons.

Pros:

• He was the 3rd most productive shortstop in the American League last year.
• Just about average defensively (I consider this a pro, given Boston’s luck at the SS position in recent years).
• Plate discipline has steadily improved with age.
• Difficult to strike out, 1 K every 9 plate appearances.
• Hit .322/.405/.429 on the road last year.
• Career .290/.321/.400 hitter at Fenway Park.
• Similar effectiveness versus LHPs and RHPs.

Cons:

• Age.  34-year-old shortstops, like catchers, are ticking time bombs.  Offensively and defensively, he’s a solid bet to be worse than he was in 2009.
• Track record. His only decent year was last year, a contract year at age 33.  This will likely be his last significant contract. Not much incentive there.  Before last season, his career numbers were not unlike Julio Lugo’s at the time of his signing.
• Durability.  He hit .211/.310/.282 after September 1st last year, a big red flag for someone his age who is not used to logging in 140-150 games as a starter.
• Scutaro is a Type A free agent, which means the Sox will lose their original 1st round draft pick to Toronto, who also gets an additional compensation pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
• Playing SS in the indoor tennis court known at the Rogers Centre is quite different than doing it in Fenway Park.  As a well-paid free agent, he inherits the bulls-eye worn by Lugo and Edgar Renteria, and will not be given much leeway from the blohards and drunks in the stands.

The fact that this is only a 2-year guarantee softens my distaste a bit, since our top SS prospect will probably need at least two years before he is ready for the major leagues.

At best, Scutaro might have a year somewhat close to what he was last year: competent in the field and pretty good at the plate.  At worst, he’ll be the subject of a mid-season trade in 2011 where the Sox end up paying 100% of his contract in exchange for a 28-year-old AAA first baseman and a 2-liter bottle of Mister Pib.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 12/1/2009 10:39 am

The Red Sox appear to be thinking outside the box on their shortstop issue, as Peter Gammons reports that the team has asked All-Star second baseman Dustin Pedroia if he can return to his original position in 2010.

Pedroia is one of the better fielding second basemen in the game, and his glove/range should be adequate in a transition to SS.  The big question mark is whether his throwing arm can handle the move.  In the few games that I watched him at SS a couple of years back, it seemed like there were a few too many close calls at first base due to a less than stellar throw from Pedroia.  However, this wasn’t a very significant sample of games, and it was Pedroia’s first stint in the Major Leagues.

I’m in favor of giving it a try.  The logic behind the move is that a quality shortstop is much harder to find than a quality second baseman.  The team will have a much easier time finding a Chris Getz type of guy, as opposed to a Jason Bartlett type of guy.