Confirmed: Lackey Deal Imminent

By Jimmy, 12/14/2009 6:49 pm

Kudos to Ed Price, whose credibility in the baseball internet world was bumped up a few notches when he first scooped this one.  All major outlets are now confirming that a physical did indeed take place, and a deal between the Red Sox and pitcher John Lackey is very close.

01I have some mixed emotions here.  Frankly, Lackey is (was?) one of my least favorite non-pinstriped players.  I seem to remember a barrage of nonsensical blather spewing from his mouth on multiple occasions during post game interviews (both wins and losses).  Of course, if he actually is a member of the Red Sox, my evaluation of Lackey will unapologetically change from “loud mouthed half-wit” to “fierce, emotional competitor”.  Let’s face it; guys like Lackey, Joey Porter, and Rasheed Wallace are fun to watch if you happen to root for their teams, and despicable if you do not.

Anyway, let’s take a look at Lackey’s on field attributes.

Lackey, 31, is a big right-hander with four pitch arsenal.  His best pitch might be the curveball, which he uses roughly in roughly 25% of his throws (only two AL pitchers used the deuce more frequently last year: Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett).  He’ll also feature a slider and a changeup to supplement his above-average fastball, which he commands with very good accuracy (11th in the AL in BB/9 innings in 2009).

Some notes:

  • Has struggled at Fenway Park throughout his career (5.75 ERA in 51.2 innings).  Of course, a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that the Red Sox have had some scary lineups between 2003 and 2009.
  • Missed time with an elbow-injury at the beginning of 2009, but seemed to get better/stronger as the year progressed, which is a positive sign for a guy who was once a lock for 200 innings per year.  If you break his season down into thirds (9 starts each) it looks like this: first 9 starts: 5.9 innings per start, 5.06 ERA, next 18 starts: 6.8 innings per start, 3.29 ERA
  • 3.12 ERA in 78 career playoff innings.
  • Only started 1 game against the Yankees last year, but did well: a 7 inning, 2 run win

The terms of the contract are being reported as $85 million over 5 years.  That’s that annual average of $17 million per year, making Lackey the highest-paid member of the team.

My take: for some reason, the AAV of $17 million seems like a very, very big number to me.  I’ve known all along that Lackey was looking for a similar deal to A.J. Burnett, but I can’t help but feel some sticker shock here.  That’s a very big commitment to make for a guy who might be (just ballparking this) the 15th best pitcher in baseball.   It’s probably a sign that the inventory of available pitchers is thin; the next-most sought after free agent starter after Lackey is old friend Joel Pineiro.

It’s a relatively safe investment, since Lackey has been consistent and durable throughout his career (for the most part), but one can’t help but wonder what effect that $85 million commitment will have on the budget next winter, when several free agents of much greater value will be available.

In any case, the Red Sox are a much better team today than they were yesterday.  A Red Sox team anchored by pitching and defense is not something I am used to, but I am very much looking forward to witnessing them in action next spring.

Coming up: thoughts on LF, now that it appears that Jason Bay is gone.

3 Responses to “Confirmed: Lackey Deal Imminent”

  1. Lauren says:

    Looking forward to spring training too – should be interesting to watch the team evolve.

  2. Matt says:

    “Kiss our first round draft picks goodbye. Unless Jason Bay signs with a team other than the NY Mets, the Red Sox will not have one of the first 30 picks in the draft next year.”

    Is this a brain fart?

    The Boston Red Sox will receive the 20th selection from the Atlanta Braves as compensation for not signing type A free agent Billy Wagner.

  3. Jimmy says:

    Matt – definite brain fart. For some reason, I was thinking #20 went away with Lackey’s signing, but that isn’t the case.

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