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By Jimmy, 1/28/2010 5:36 pm

Upon hearing the news that the Milwaukee Brewers are close to signing aging outfielder Jim Edmonds, a couple of thoughts came to mind.  My first thought was “I can’t believe he’s still playing.”  I then thought about the Hall of Fame case for Edmonds, and was admittedly unsure about it before I looked into it.

Edmonds is an interesting case; a guy who was generally regarded as an excellent fielder by his peers (he’s won multiple Gold Glove Awards in CF), but is sometimes considered overrated by the gatekeepers of advanced defensive metrics.  The one item not up for debate is the quality of his bat, as his career OPS+ of 132 places him squarely among a group of several Hall of Fame outfielders.

I went back and looked at the career Wins Above Replacement Player for a bunch of well-known outfielders. I didn’t have much of a scientific method for picking the names, I was basically aiming for guys who were considered excellent outfielders without being Willie Mays-level elite. Some of them are in the Hall of Fame, the others are in the “Hall of Very Good”.

Here are the results (names in blue are Hall of Famers):

I would never have guessed his case would be this easy, but it appears that Edmonds clearly deserves to be enshrined, if historical consistency is to be maintained. He might have to wait a few years due to some bozos not considering him a “first ballot Hall of Famer”. Seriously, what kind of logic is that? Being a Hall of Famer should be akin to being pregnant: you are or you aren’t. Unless I’m missing something, Jim is.

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By Jimmy, 1/27/2010 5:46 pm

Tim Wakefield has been in Boston longer than most of the bars currently on Lansdowne Street, and the relationship between the knuckleballer and his bosses has been a positive one over the years, for the most part.

However, every once in a while, usually when Wakefield’s role is a topic of debate, the team’s senior member will cause a small stir with a quote here and there.  This hasn’t happened in 5 years or so (I don’t think we’ve seen it happen since his run-in with Aaron Boone in 2003), but Wakefield is once again demanding “respect”.

Here’s the most eyebrow-raising portion of his interview with the Herald:

“Hopefully they respect me enough to give me the ball when we get to spring training as a member of this rotation. I think I’ve earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there,…I did make the All-Star team last year. It seems every year, and I don’t know why, my name gets brought up like this when I don’t feel I need to prove myself every day. I don’t know where the rumors are coming from, but I try not to pay attention. I know my role and I know what my approach is going to be when I get to spring training: be a starter and help us win the World Series.”

Yikes.  I hate to go all Nancy Kerrigan’s Brother on the poor old guy, but let’s break this down.

“Hopefully they respect me enough to give me the ball when we get to spring training as a member of this rotation. I think I’ve earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there.”

Dude, really?  “Respect”?  You’re a 43-year-old who just posted the lowest innings total and lowest K/9 ratio of your Red Sox tenure last year.  Remember how people responded when Pedro Martinez pulled the “respect” card?  Well, he was a Hall of Famer in his prime.  Maybe rethink the use of that word?

“I did make the All-Star team last year.”

Holy shit.  I honestly had to rub my eyes to make sure I wasn’t hallucinating here.  He did not just say…wait, yes he did.  Everyone knows that the All-Star appointment was charity for a guy who has been underappreciated throughout the bulk of his long yet dwindling career.  The logic was “Hey, Wakefield has a few wins and hasn’t embarrassed himself on the mound this year.  He’s been around forever and has never made an All-Star team.  Look, I know there are a dozen more deserving pitchers, but let’s throw the old guy a bone, shall we?”  There’s no way his All-Star berth should be used as evidence for anything other than the fact that sentimentality is not yet dead among baseball people.

“It seems every year, and I don’t know why, my name gets brought up like this when I don’t feel I need to prove myself every day.”

You are the 6th-best starter currently on the roster, and the rotation can only fit 5 pitchers.  It’s not exactly quantum physics, sport.

“I don’t know where the rumors are coming from, but I try not to pay attention.”

I wouldn’t really classify them as “rumors” per se.  A more appropriate classification might be “the writing on the wall”.

“I know my role…”

Wow, that’s amazing.  You might want to clue your manager into this knowledge.  I’m sure he would be relieved to have a resolution to the dilemma that is Tim Wakefield’s role.

“and I know what my approach is going to be when I get to spring training: be a starter and help us win the World Series.”

You got moxie, kid.  You got fire.  I like that about you.

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By Jimmy,

Continuing their trend of avoiding arbitration hearings like a handkerchief soaked with H1N1-enriched phlegm, the Red Sox have signed Jeremy Hermida to a 1-year deal worth roughly $3.3 million.

Hermida, likely Boston’s fourth outfielder to begin the season, was making $2.25 million last year.  His new salary appears to be close to what he would have received in arbitration.

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By Jimmy, 1/25/2010 9:55 am

As I was strolling through the isles of the local supermarket yesterday afternoon, something in the Mexican isle made me stop and do a double-take.  Yes, it was another salsa blend endorsed by a Red Sox player.  This is the third one I can think of (Pedro Martinez had one a few years ago, and more recently, David Ortiz), but this one from a less likely source:

Pedroia’s Premium Salsa.  Because, nothing says “tasty Latin cuisine” like a short white guy with premature baldness.  I’m greatly looking forward to the day Jacoby Ellsbury’s wasabi hits the shelves.

Notes:

• I hate to be yet another guy on the internet shitting on Brett Favre and his apologists, but I’m an unoriginal lemming and I just can’t help myself.  My favorite line from last night’s broadcast, after Favre literally threw the season away: “You play 19 years in this league, you’re bound to have three or four mistakes like that.“  Three or four, hmm?
• That game winning field goal looked like it would have gone 60 yards.
• All is quiet on the Red Sox front, but here’s a nice Projo article on the international prospect development efforts in the organization.

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By Jimmy, 1/22/2010 10:28 am

The Red Sox recently saved themselves a mild headache by coming to an agreement with Jonathan Papelbon to avoid arbitration, one that would pay him roughly $9.4 million dollars in 2010.  This seems like a large sum of money to pay a 65 inning guy, but if you are to believe the valuations calculated by Fangraphs.com, Papelbon’s contributions over the past 4 years have been worth an amount in the ballpark of what he will be receiving next season.

The problem with paying Papelbon elite money this year is that he has one more year of arbitration coming in 2011.  If he has a season similar to his performances in 2006-2009 (and given the consistency he’s displayed, the smart money is on him doing it), he’s going to be commanding a crazy salary in 2011, one that might eclipse the value of his services.

Considering the fact that the Red Sox have the luxury of a cost-controlled power arm in Dan Bard, a guy who Bill James projects to strike out 70 in 54 innings while posting an ERA around 3.00 in 2010, it might make sense to deal Papelbon before the 2011 season and fill a need somewhere else on the roster.  This is especially the case if Papelbon starts to go on his “I want to make history for closers” crusade.

There will be no need to deal with that type of drivel next winter.

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By Jimmy, 1/19/2010 9:54 pm

If you look all free-agent signings across the league in recent history, not every situation reveals a clear-cut winner or clear-cut loser.  In many cases, you can argue that Team A was right to let a player go, but the signing really worked out for Team B as well.  However, if you believe the recent information from Peter Gammons to be true, the Jason Bay free agency is a different animal.

Two of the favorites to sign Bay (the Red Sox and the Mets) offered staggeringly different contract terms.  The Sox offered a conservative 2-year deal after becoming suspicious of Bay’s health, while the Mets signed Bay to an aggressive 4-year deal, on that could turn into a 5-year deal if certain incentives are met.  Three or four years from now, it will be rather easy to point at one team and say “smart move” (or, if you are the glass-half-empty type, you can point at the other team and say “YOU FOOLS”).

I can’t help but be reminded of the departure of Pedro Martinez.  The Mets aggressively signed the aging superstar to a 4-year deal despite glaring injury concerns.  It was a mistake, and they paid the price ($50,000,000, to be exact).

When I look at the hobbled Jason Bay in that big ole’ National League park, it’s hard to imagine a different outcome.

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By Jimmy,

Sadly, I will not be exercising my civic duty this afternoon, because (and here’s where I come off like a bona fide idiot) I forgot to fill out some census paperwork a few months ago.

Honestly though, why do I even need to fill out a census form?  I pay all sorts of taxes, I have a driver’s license, I have a condo.  The government, at every level, already has way too much proof that I exist.  Do they really, really need more paperwork on me?

Anyway, a couple of things coming up:

• Taking another look at Jason Bay, in light of some new information.
• Team previews will begin.

My apologies for the lack of updates recently, things have been rather busy.  Dewey’s House will be in full force in 2010.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 1/12/2010 8:00 am

Now that the lineup appears to me constructed for nest season, let’s take a quick and dirty look at their 2010 Bill James projections (courtesy of Fangraphs):

The one thing that might stick out at you (it certainly stuck out at me) was the lack of a 30 HR hitter.  We all know by now that the 2010 strategy isn’t really geared toward winning slow pitch softball games, but the last time a Red Sox team did not have a 30 HR hitter on their roster for at least part of the season was 1999, when Troy O’Leary led the squad with 28.

Of course, the 1999 team made it to the ALCS on the strength of their pitching, in particular Pedro Martinez, who gave us one of the best single-season performances in history (not to mention the legendary relief appearance against Cleveland in the ALDS).

If the 2010 Red Sox are to make the playoffs, so too will they rely on run prevention in lieu of offensive clout.  There will be a lot of tense (but fun) games to watch this season.

Coming up: a look at projections in defense, then pitching.

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By Jimmy, 1/8/2010 10:23 am

A lot of people tend to associate the versatile Bill Hall with his 2005-2006 run of excellence, when he was one of the best offensive shortstops in the game.  Only 3 years have passed since Hall boasted a slugging percentage of .553 over the course of a season, but it might as well be 100 years ago.

Bill Hall’s 3 year averages are: .229/.291/.391.  Just for some perspective on how bad that is, Nick Green (my favorite player of all time) hit .236/.303/.366 last season with the Red Sox.

What Hall does bring to the table is versatility.  Over his career, the 30-year-old has played every position except 1B, C, and P, and has basically been an average defender at each spot.  However, he has not played SS since 2006, and he primarily been used as a 3B or corner outfielder in recent years.  That is not to say that he couldn’t fill in at SS in a pinch, but it doesn’t seem likely that he would be the only guy on the roster who could back up Marco Scutaro at SS.

The bottom line is this: I am not convinced that Bill Hall would be able to contribute more to the big team than Tug Hulett.  Hulett will be 27 in February, hit very well in AAA last year, and most importantly, he’s actually played SS as recently as last season (along with all the other positions Hall has played, with the exception of CF, an area where the team is very adequately covered).

Here’s hoping that Hulett is given some strong consideration this spring.

Next up: we’ll take a look at the Red Sox starting lineup, as it appears to be complete.

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By Jimmy, 1/6/2010 6:46 pm

Allow me to present you with two hypothetical baseball players.  Both are primarily right fielders, both skilled defenders and accomplished power hitters.  Both played during the same era.

Also, note that Player “B” appeared in the World Series on two occasions, where he hit .300/.397/.580 in 59 plate appearances.

Player “A” of course is Andre Dawson, who was just elected to the Hall of Fame.  Which is fine.  I think Dawson is a borderline case in the same stratosphere as someone like Jim Rice.  I don’t think his selection is egregious.   But, how on earth do you reconcile Dawson’s induction with the misfortunes of Dwight Evans (Player “B”)?

You’ll notice that Evans is not anywhere on the ballot.  Well, that’s because he only received 3.6% of the vote back in 1999.  THREE POINT SIX PERCENT. A lot of this can probably be attributed to the era in which the voting took place.  1999 was the pinnacle of the long-ball spike.  Dwight Evans was a boring guy with a mustache; watching him hitting 29 home runs and playing good defense doesn’t really compare to someone like Sammy Sosa belting 66 home runs and making all sorts of wacky gestures to the crowd as he gallivants around the bases.

When I look at the above Player A / Player B comparison, and compare that to their HoF voting results, I see a bunch of sportswriters who should be fired immediately.

To be fair, I think a lot of these writers (especially those obsessed with the whole steroid issue) would love to have a mulligan on their ballots from the past 15 years.  Due to a system that defies logic and reason, they cannot.  We now turn our weary eyes to the coven of geezers who constitute the Veterans Committee, and hope that they can one day muster up enough lucidity to reverse the errors made by the BBWAA.

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By Jimmy,

While Jacoby might have been a little peeved upon hearing the news that his CF role has been usurped by a 37-year-old man, it’s not exactly unprecedented for the league’s fastest man to play the least-challenging position in the outfield.  Since 1980, the league leader in stolen bases has more often than not (56% of the time, to be exact) been a left fielder.

That statistic is driven by four guys: Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, Tim Raines (maybe headed to Cooperstown today?), and Carl Crawford.  Those are four of the most prolific base stealers of the past 30 years.  If you want to go even further back in time, Lou Brock is the gold standard for this phenomenon.  You would think that the fastest guy on the field would naturally be a fit in CF, but often times that isn’t the case.

This isn’t to say that Jacoby can’t revisit CF once Mike Cameron’s time is done here.  I’ve gone on record saying that Ellsbury is a better defender than his horrid UZR indicated last season, and I stand by that.  In fact, I’d guess that he’ll play at least 20 games in CF this season while Cameron rests and Jeremy Hermida plays in LF.

If anything, the move to LF might allow Ellsbury to concentrate on the other tasks required of his role: getting on base, and once there, advancing rapidly.

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By Jimmy, 1/5/2010 11:41 pm

One of the more eye-opening tidbits from the Adrian Beltre saga is the news that the third baseman actually turned down longer-term deals to sign the one-year contract with Boston.  The other deals did not offer the desired annual salary, so rather than accept the safety of a comfortable multi-year deal, Beltre opted to sign a 1 year deal and roll the dice in free-agency in 2011.

There is a player option worth $5 million (which could increase to $10 million if certain incentives are reached), but Beltre would obviously would prefer to earn a long-term deal next offseason.  The only way that will happen is if he has a good year in 2010.  Beltre will have his eye on the prize this season, and the Sox hope to reap the benefits.

Here’s a look at where Beltre hit his doubles and home runs in the cavernous Safeco Field last season:

Even during an uncharacteristically poor season at the plate, the right-handed Beltre enjoys hitting the ball hard to left field, a trait that should come in handy at Fenway Park.

And then, there’s the defense.  I’m sure you’ve heard by now, but Beltre is one of the top 3 or so third baseman in the game, defensively.  He won two straight Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008 and should have won it in 2009.  It will be good to have a 3B with range, since our new shortstop is a bit of a question mark.

After thinking about this quite a bit, I like the deal.  The downside is limited; Beltre might be a poor offensive player, but he’ll still be good in the field and the Sox are only on the hook for one season (two, if Beltre accepts a relatively paltry $5 million in 2011).  The Sox would then have the option of pursuing a first baseman in a mid-season deal.

Coming up: a quick look at the Kotchman trade.

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By Jimmy, 1/4/2010 9:47 pm

Adrian Beltre, a slick-fielding third baseman who is wildly inconsistent at the plate (sometimes excellent, sometimes terrible), will be joining the Red Sox according to multiple sources.

The deal appears to be 1 year guaranteed at $10 million, with a player option for a second year at $5 million.

My quick reaction: I’m not wild about the player, but I love the 1 year deal.  I’ll post more on this later.

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By Jimmy, 1/3/2010 10:45 pm

The good news: Mike Lowell’s offseason surgery was a success.

The bad news: the procedure did not turn Lowell into a centaur.  I mean, that’s the only way his mobility could actually improve at this stage of his life, right?  No, this was your garden variety thumb ligament surgery, and Lowell will be bringing his 36-year-old human legs and his -15 UZR to Fort Myers in March.

While Lowell was pretty bad defensively in 2009 (his UZR would have been the worst among all regular third baseman had he qualified), he did manage to prove that he could still produce at the plate, even with a bad thumb.  Against left-handed pitching, one might even categorize Lowell’s production as superb: .301/.363/.503.

It is clear that Lowell should not be playing every day, and it is also clear that his optimal usage comes against left-handed pitching.  Which brings us to another corner infielder on the Red Sox roster: first-baseman Casey Kotchman.  The left-handed Kotchman hits slightly better against right-handed pitching, and provides a good glove to go along with sound plate discipline and superb contact skills (Kotchman has only struck out 166 times in 1,871 MLB plate appearances).

There is one major concern I have with such a platoon:

How would Kevin Youkilis respond to the constant shuffling from 3B to 1B?  He seems to be versatile enough to handle such a situation, but in the past we’ve typically seen him playing each position in prolonged stretches (as opposed to switching back and forth throughout the year).  It might be asking a lot of a guy who will be counted on to carry the offense a bit in 2010.

Even considering the risk, this platoon might be a better option than free-agent signing Adrian Beltre to a long term contract to play 3B.  Especially when you consider that the Red Sox might be able to make a mega-trade for a corner infielder at the July deadline.

Odds & Ends:

• Word on the street is that Jason Bay came to an agreement with the Mets on Christmas day, a few days before it was actually announced.  Not exactly a heartwarming holiday tale (for anyone involved).  The huge sum of money must be nice, but it has to be sort of a bummer to be exiled to a 90-loss team in Queens after your top choices walked away from the negotiating table.
• MLBTradeRumors.com sums up the AL East moves to date.  I actually think Tampa Bay has had the best offseason out of the bunch?  Why?  They didn’t panic after underperforming last season, they filled a couple of serious holes behind the plate and in the bullpen without doing anything too drastic.  A good GM will recognize when moves do not need to be made.