Offensive Projections: 2010 Starting Lineup

By , 1/12/2010 8:00 am

Now that the lineup appears to me constructed for nest season, let’s take a quick and dirty look at their 2010 Bill James projections (courtesy of Fangraphs):

AVG OBP SLG Notes
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LF 0.302 0.360 0.420 64 SBs out of 78 attempts
2 Dustin Pedroia 2B 0.307 0.378 0.465 15 HRs
3 Kevin Youkilis 1B 0.289 0.394 0.492 23 HRs
4 Victor Martinez C 0.298 0.377 0.464 19 HRs
5 J.D. Drew RF 0.269 0.385 0.474 22 HRs
6 David Ortiz DH 0.264 0.369 0.519 29 HRs
7 Mike Cameron CF 0.237 0.328 0.428 23 HRs
8 Marco Scutaro SS 0.264 0.347 0.381 10 HRs
9 Adrian Beltre 3B 0.269 0.321 0.439 17 HRs

The one thing that might stick out at you (it certainly stuck out at me) was the lack of a 30 HR hitter.  We all know by now that the 2010 strategy isn’t really geared toward winning slow pitch softball games, but the last time a Red Sox team did not have a 30 HR hitter on their roster for at least part of the season was 1999, when Troy O’Leary led the squad with 28.

Of course, the 1999 team made it to the ALCS on the strength of their pitching, in particular Pedro Martinez, who gave us one of the best single-season performances in history (not to mention the legendary relief appearance against Cleveland in the ALDS).

If the 2010 Red Sox are to make the playoffs, so too will they rely on run prevention in lieu of offensive clout.  There will be a lot of tense (but fun) games to watch this season.

Coming up: a look at projections in defense, then pitching.

categories Red Sox Analysis

One Response to “Offensive Projections: 2010 Starting Lineup”

  1. PG says:
    1/12/2010 at 11:55 am

    I’m gonna guess that even if nobody tops 30 a few of those HR projections are low.

    It should be an interesting, hopefully entertaining, season for sure.

    Counting the day ’til truck day!

  2. Rexsox says:
    1/17/2010 at 8:47 pm

    I like the concept of strong pitching and defense… but I think we will need somebody to man 1st base as that is the postion of the field where most outs seem to be recorded… just a thought.

  3. Jimmy says:
    1/19/2010 at 12:42 pm

    Nah…Adrian Beltre’s range is good enough for him to scoot across the diamond when need be.

  4. NBarnes says:
    1/21/2010 at 10:19 pm

    I’ll take the under on Ortiz.

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