Is This Papelbon’s Final Year in Boston?
The Red Sox recently saved themselves a mild headache by coming to an agreement with Jonathan Papelbon to avoid arbitration, one that would pay him roughly $9.4 million dollars in 2010. This seems like a large sum of money to pay a 65 inning guy, but if you are to believe the valuations calculated by Fangraphs.com, Papelbon’s contributions over the past 4 years have been worth an amount in the ballpark of what he will be receiving next season.
The problem with paying Papelbon elite money this year is that he has one more year of arbitration coming in 2011. If he has a season similar to his performances in 2006-2009 (and given the consistency he’s displayed, the smart money is on him doing it), he’s going to be commanding a crazy salary in 2011, one that might eclipse the value of his services.
Considering the fact that the Red Sox have the luxury of a cost-controlled power arm in Dan Bard, a guy who Bill James projects to strike out 70 in 54 innings while posting an ERA around 3.00 in 2010, it might make sense to deal Papelbon before the 2011 season and fill a need somewhere else on the roster. This is especially the case if Papelbon starts to go on his “I want to make history for closers” crusade.
There will be no need to deal with that type of drivel next winter.
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