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By Jimmy, 2/24/2010 11:42 am

In news that is sure to dampen to mood of anyone who owns a pharmacy in a Latin American country,  MLB will begin testing for HGH in the minor leagues.   Now that the minors have implemented it, the topic will probably be addressed when the next collective bargaining agreement between the MLB players and owners is negotiated.

IGF-1 (the smoking gun detected in these blood tests) is said to remain in the bloodstream for roughly 24-36 hours.  Again (ATTENTION RED SOX MINOR LEAGUERS, cough cough), that is 24-36 hours.

I’m not a huge fan of the idea of giving any governing body the authority to randomly turn people into a pin cushion on a moments notice, and I was never a supporter of “The War on PEDs”, so this news seems a little bit troubling to me.

Oh well.  To keep the casual Middle American fan happy, I suppose you gotta publicly fight that bogeyman.

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By Jimmy,

As I’m sure you know by now, the Red Sox are currently wrapped up in their annual Awkward Personnel Moment of 2010, this time in the form of Mike Lowell.  The Sox were a scrote hair away from trading Lowell to the Texas Rangers before it all fell apart.  The fiasco was highly publicized, and with Adrian Beltre’s arrival via free agency, the 36-year-old (Happy Birthday!) is a man without a position.

Let’s assume that Lowell is untradeable.  This assumption might not be too far off, as Lowell will earn at least $12 million dollars in 2010, and the Red Sox are probably not keen on paying all of that salary given their proximity to the luxury tax line.  Is it possible to get Lowell a decent amount of plate appearances while optimizing the lineup?  I think it is.

Here are the assumptions I’m making when calculating this:

• David Ortiz, who typically plays in just about every game on the schedule, will see his playing time scaled back a bit against left-handed pitchers after struggling last season.  Lowell, who hit .301/.363/.503 against lefties last year while fighting injuries, will DH for Ortiz against a tough lefty roughly once per week.
• Adrian Beltre is coming off of an injury prone year, but even when he’s healthy, he’ll miss roughly 15 games in a season.  Lowell will fill in for Beltre here, playing 1B while Youkilis slides over to 3B.  I know, I know, Lowell has yet to play 1 inning at 1B in his Major League career.  I’ll wager the deed to my shit-hole condominium that you see Lowell donning the 1B mitt in a handful of spring training games.  The guy is desperately trying to market himself to other teams, and the best way to do that is increase his versatility.
• Kevin Youklilis is chronically bruised and banged up, and will likely not play in more than 145 games (his career-high is 147).  Assuming his missed time isn’t concurrent with Beltre’s (one would hope), Lowell will fill in here.
• Two out of the three players mentioned above will have one stint on the DL (again, not concurrent).  Lowell will start the majority of those games (20 out of 30).
• In 75% of the games that Lowell does not start, he will appear as a late-inning pinch-hitter, getting 1 plate appearance per game.

Considering the above, it is possible that Mike Lowell could see somewhere around 380-420 plate appearances in 2010, were he to stay on the Red Sox for the entire season.  Of course, the more likely scenario is that the Sox end up trading him at some point well before the July 31 deadline, but I just wanted to lay out a possible scenario where Lowell actually sticks around and helps the 2010 Red Sox win games.

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By Jimmy, 2/23/2010 10:36 am

Anyone know where I can get my hands on one of these?

As we enter a new decade, the Pittsburgh Pirates are clearly the diseased runts of Major League Baseball.  They have a terrific stadium, a great city (if you’ve never been there, check it out), and one of the oldest franchises in the league.  It’s getting to the point where Obama should just step in and socialize these guys, am I right?  It’s not that the Pirates are “too big to fail”, but they are too historic to fail.  The Dutchman pictured to the right is furiously spinning in his grave at the sight of Pittsburgh’s annual display of futility.

Will their fortunes finally turn in 2010?  Let’s see.

Arrivals: OF Ryan Church, IF Bobby Crosby, RP Brendan Donnelly, RP Octavio Dotel, 2B Akinori Iwamura

Departures: RP Matt Capps, RP Jesse Chavez

I like what Pittburgh is doing here after the inevitable loss of their closer (Capps) to free agency.  They didn’t go too crazy trying to find a replacement to step in as closer, instead, they signed long-time setup man Dotel for a bargain price.  Also, the acquisitions of Church, Crosby, Donnelly, and Iwamura all fill holes on the roster at minimal cost.  From a pure transactional standpoint, the Pirates have improved.  Now, onto the projections:

Projected Starting Lineup:

There’s certainly lots of potential in the lineup.  McCutchen is the most promising of the bunch, but LaRoche, Clement, and Milledge were all considered upper-echelon prospects not too long ago, and each one has the potential to break out a bit in 2010.  Garrett Jones was on fire in his rookie year, but we can expect him to come down to earth this year.

Bench:

Walker and Church are both guys who could take over easily if someone like LaRoche or Milledge struggles.  The rest of the bench is rather thin.

Projected Rotation:

Bullpen:

If the Pirates do lose 90-100 games again in 2010, it will be primarily due to their pitching staff.  They have a starting lineup full of guys who could be fun to watch this year, but their rotation lacks any true power pitcher, and their bullpen beyond Hanrahan and Dotel is really a mess.

If anything, they appear to be on the right track, as they do have an impressive number of under-25 guys who are promising.  Again, it’s tough to look at the big picture this early without reviewing other teams, but I think finishing in second to last place in the NL Central might be a practical goal for this young squad.

Team score: 6.09

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By Jimmy, 2/20/2010 12:28 pm

Dean Chance won the 1964 AL Cy Young Award, leading the league in ERA and innings pitched.

We’ll kick off our 2010 MLB team previews with the squad that eliminated the Red Sox from the ALDS last season.  The Angels have formed a solid rivalry with the Sox in the last decade, complete with playoff drama and beanball wars.  While they still seem to garner the whole “scrappy/small-ball” image from the media, the Angels won 97 games last year primarily on the strength of their offense, as they were 2nd in the American League in runs scored.

Additions: DH Hideki Matsui, SP Joel Pineiro, RP Fernando Rodney, RP Brian Stokes
Departures: SP John Lackey, 3B Chone Figgins, OF Vlad Guerrero, SP Kelvim Escobar, RP Darren Oliver, OF Gary Matthews Jr.

Obviously, the offseason hasn’t been very kind to these poor scrappy Angels.  Their best pitcher, their most valuable position player, and their most popular veteran all left via free agency.  Hideki Matsui might be a marginal improvement over Guerrero at the plate, but the losses of Lackey and Figgins will be a little more difficult to fill.

Before I list the projected starters, keep in mind that this batting order is how I’d write it if I were managing the team (in other words, don’t read too much into the batting order).

Starters:

Bench:

One of the assumptions I’m making is a breakthrough year from Howie Kendrick, a guy who has the makings of a batting champion but hasn’t taken the leap yet.  I’m expecting slight regressions from Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera.  It’s difficult to say this with any certainty before I’ve run the other projections, but I think the Angels’ bench is among the strongest in the American League, with Izturis and Mathis being guys who could start on a lot of MLB teams.

Rotation:

Bullpen:

I feel that substituting Joel Pineiro for John Lackey is a massive, massive downgrade that will really hurt the Angels’ efforts to prevent runs from scoring.  Their bullpen will improve a little with the additions for Rodney and Stokes, but it still lacks depth.

The Angels are enjoying a 3-year streak of winning their division championship.  A four-peat will not come easy in 2010.

Team Score: 6.85

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By Jimmy, 2/19/2010 6:17 pm

We’re about to hit the ground running on our annual 2010 MLB team previews, and I just wanted to give an introduction to my methodology before actually posting the previews.

My approach is similar to the same one I used last year; an attempt to isolate run scoring and run prevention via grades given to the position players, rotation, and bullpen.  This year, I’ve decided to go with a numerical 1-10 projection scale, since it’s a bit more transparent than the A-F grades I gave last year.  The scale works like this: based on the numerical grade I assign each player, I am projecting them to be a certain type of player in 2010. 

• 10- Elite players.  Only a dozen or so offensive 10′s exist, maybe five starting pitchers in all of MLB are 10′s.  10′s are typically slam dunk Hall of Famers if they remain healthy. Example: Albert Pujols.
• 9 – A great player.  Players who are strong All-Star candidates, though not quite elite.  Possible Hall of Famers if they are lucky enough to have a long career without too many injuries. Example: Mark Teixeira 
• 8 – A very good player.  Someone who might be a fringe All-Star, but they have some minor yet noticeable holes in their game that keep them out of the top categories.  Example: Josh Beckett
• 7 - A good player.   Definitely above average, someone who is a household name amongst casual fans, but not an All-Star.  Example: Shin Soo-Choo
• 6 – An above average player.  Basically, your typical starter on a bad team.  Your girlfriend probably doesn’t know who he is. Example: Kevin Kouzmanoff
• 5 – An average MLB player.  A great guy to have on the bench.  You don’t want too many 5′s in your starting lineup, but one or two are fine stopgaps. Example: Bobby Crosby
• 4 - A below-average major leaguer.  Clearly someone you do not want seeing too much playing time.  A competent bench option, someone who won’t embarrass himself if called upon to fill in for injured starters.  Example: Eric Hinske
• 3 - An AAAA caliber player.  If he has option years left, he’ll probably be traveling quite a bit over the course of the year.  Would be a regular player only on a bad team.  Example: Bill Hall
• 2 – Your typical AAA caliber player.  Will have great difficulty competing at the MLB level.  Someone who would usually be summoned when rosters expand on September 1st.  Example: Alex Cora
• 1 - A player who has no business being in the Major Leagues.  He is on the roster for one of two reasons: a) the team airplane pulled a Marshall University, or b) he is the owner’s godson.   Example: Nick Green               

The ratings for a projected starting lineup on a fictional team would probably look something like this:

And the bench would also be graded:

You might consider this a cop-out, but I’m refraining from grading catchers on their fielding skills.  There’s just not enough data readily available, and I refuse to go by CS rates alone (since that’s such a small part of what actually happens behind the plate).

Bench scores would be weighted as 1/5 of the total offensive score. 

We would then move on to the starting pitchers:

Of course, pitchers would only receive one grade.  The final piece would be the bullpen:

To make things simple, I’m considering every non closer a middle-reliever (MR).  Each team will probably have one closer (CL), unless the role is completely undecided, a la the 2003 Red Sox.

Run prevention is 50% of the team score, with the other 50% being run production.  90% of run production is pitching, with 10% being defense (the 90/10 thing is completely pulled out of my ass.  I used 95/5 last year, and in retrospect, it seems like I undervalued fielding.  This is all trial by error).  2/3 of pitching is determined by the starters’ score, with the remaining 1/3 coming from the bullpen. 

That’s pretty much how the system works.  The above team, while scoring a 9.9 in a melodiousness scale, would rate as a 6.54 on the field.

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By Jimmy,

Let’s switch gears for a moment, as I partake in one of my favorite hobbies: ranting about a subject I know very little about.

I’m not one of those people who watches golf on TV.  I just recently started playing the game, and I’m still not quite good enough to play a round on an actual course without embarrassing myself and endangering everyone around me.  However, if there’s one thing I know about golf, it’s that Tiger Woods is probably the greatest to ever swing a club.  A once-in-a-generation athlete, the likes of which we are lucky to be alive to witness.

Now, because of 21st century America’s ”Think of the Children” brand of hysteria, we are being deprived of this athlete in his prime years.  He must now stop playing golf and become a hermit, simply because he shares the same flaws as a huge percentage of  professional athletes.  If someone like Fred Funk decided to bang a dozen porn stars, and was caught red-handed, would the national news coverage even last an hour?  No…Woods is a victim of his own success here.

I think I was just born in the wrong decade.  In another era, Woods would be a folk hero, like JFK or Babe Ruth.  He would keep playing golf, re-writing record books, and his appetite for whores would be the subject of barroom legend.  Now, because of our righteous indignation and our need to be involved with every public figure, Tiger will continue to hide like Bobby Fisher.  It’s McCarthyism all over again, only with infidelity/bad parenting as the source of the new Red Scare.

These days, everyone is concerned about how good of a parent/husband everyone else is.  What we need to realize is that sometimes (most of the time)  it’s not all about us.

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By Jimmy,

It seems like folks are already penciling utilityman Bill Hall’s name into the opening day Red Sox roster.  On the surface, that doesn’t seem too crazy; Hall is a versatile guy with lots of MLB experience.  A 30-year-old who was an All-Star not too long ago.  Seems like an ideal guy to have on the end of your bench.

Are we jumping the gun, though?  A name that I haven’t been hearing much of from the scribes as of yet is Tug Hulett, a utilityman with an impressive minor league track record, acquired from the Royals in November.   The reason I tend to favor Tug (at least, preliminarily) is because he has shown some recent promise at the plate, whereas Bill Hall is languishing in the absolute abyss of his career, performance wise.

Let’s compare both players:

Bill Hall
Bats: R   Age: 30

Defense:
Ideally, whoever manages to grab this roster spot will have the ability to play SS at least somewhat competently, since Jed Lowrie is a massive injury risk (and may even start the year in Pawtucket).  Hall has not played SS since 2006.  That could be a problem, although there are reports that he’s been working on his SS game this spring.  At this point, Hall’s true position is 3B.  He can also play 2B and all three outfield positions in a pinch.

Tug Hulett
Bats: L   Age: 27

Defense:
Hulett’s true position is 2B, which is a better fit for the Sox than a backup 3B at this point.  Hulett has played 73 games as SS over the past three seasons (compared to Hall’s zero).  He has also played some 3B and corner OF, and according to minorleaguesplits.com, he is an average defender at all positions.

Conclusion: I don’t see how one can favor Hall over Hulett, at least without seeing them both in some sort of action this spring.  Hulett, on paper, is superior offensively and defensively, and the odds of him improving in 2010 are much greater than Hall’s.  I can’t really give any points to Hall for his right-handedness; if Mike Lowell sticks around, you would only have 1 lefty on the bench in Jeremy Hermida (I do not consider Jason Varitek to be a valid LHH option).

Free Tug Hulett!

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By Jimmy, 2/18/2010 9:42 am

Among the whirlwind of media bytes coming out of Fort Myers this week was this pithy-yet-alarming quote from Terry Francona:

“Wake’s  a starter”

Now, this quote could mean one of two things:

1. Francona is saying this to pacify an already-perturbed Methusela Wakefield, in order to avoid any undue tension during spring training.  Then, once the season begins (assuming all five other starters are healthy), pull a Romney-esque flip flop and stash the knuckleballer in the bullpen, egos be damned. Or…
2. Francona is taking the “respect” thing a bit too far, and plans on penciling Wakefield in the rotation, because he’s a gamer and he’s earned it.  He’ll be damned if some brash laptop thief is going to usurp a rotation spot from an 18-year-veteran who has given his heart and soul for this game!  Shame on you for even considering it!

As cynical as I am, my guess is that #1 is closer to the truth.  Francona, even though he has the veneer of an old school tobacco fiend who sticks with “his guys”, is a bit too calculating to give a veteran innings while an obvious upgrade is available.  I don’t remember too many examples of him doing this in the past, and I don’t think he’ll be that guy in 2010.

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By Jimmy, 2/16/2010 2:21 pm

It’s getting to be that time of year again.  I’ve been brainstorming and thinking about the 2010 previews quite a bit, and fun way to start off might be to take a look at my predictions from last spring.  How did I do?

I will rate each prediction on the following 4-tier scale:

1. Nailed It! - A perfect prediction; I managed to identify the exact team/player/manager for this spot.  I deserve a pat on the back, a cold beer on the house, and a solid motorboating of Jennifer Love Hewitt.  I am Christ for a day. 
2. Very Close – I didn’t pick the winner, but I came close.  A common example: the team I pick to win the Wild Card ends up winning their division.  Hey, cut me some slack.  This shit is difficult. 
3. Off-base – My prediction wasn’t really close.  Maybe my logic was justifiable, but the result was nowhere near what I predicted.  A spider monkey would make more accurate projections than this one, on average.  I should not quit my day job.
4. Miserable Failure- My prediction was an absolute abomination, nearly the opposite of what actually occurred.  My existence is merely a drain on Earth’s natural resources; I bring absolutely nothing to the table.  I deserve to be dragged out of my office, blindfolded, and shot in the face.  My public execution will instantly improve the community.

Here are the results:

Gah! A little too much red/orange, and not nearly enough green for my liking.  If you were to give me 2 points for every “Nailed It!”, one point for every “Very Close”, negative one for every “Off-Target”, and negative two for every “Miserable Failure”, my final tally would be -1.  Of course, if I really wanted to grade myself, I’d put more weighting on the correctly guessed player awards, since those are much more difficult, and I’d penalize myself more harshly for things like predicting the Mets to win their division.  Maybe I’ll work on that scoring system this season.

In any event, preview season is upon us, so keep checking in as we are sure to have interesting stuff posted over the next month and a half.

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By Jimmy,

Happy President's Day!

Just a couple of things to touch on at the start of this abbreviated week:

• Victor Martinez told the Boston Herald that he’d like to finish his career in Boston.  Of course, this type of language is typically code for “I’m in my 30′s and I’d like to sign a massive contract before I hit my decline”.  I like Victor, but the one problem I see here is that he’ll eventually need to move to 1B full-time, and the Sox already have one of the top 5 first basemen in the game signed through 2012.  If the team truly feels that Victor can catch for the next 3 or 4 years (seems doubtful), then it might be worth thinking about.
• In a development that could make the spring training roster spot battle a bit more interesting, the Sox are taking a hard look at one of Cuba’s top right-handed pitchers: 28-year-old Yuniesky Maya.
• My man-crush on J.D. Drew knows no bounds, and it’s good to see that someone with credibility actually shares my stance.  Amalie Benjamin takes aim at Drew’s critics.
• Clay Buchholz gained some weight over the winter.  Noticably missing from the article is the standard “it’s all muscle” qualifier, which means that it is undoubtedly 100% lard.  Not really a big deal, as it’s been proven many times over that starting pitchers do not need to be rail thin to excel.  He’s one of those kids who once claimed that they “couldn’t gain weight”.  Yeah, I think I used to say that when I was his age.  Just wait till 30, kid…it will fucking come easy enough.

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By Jimmy, 2/9/2010 9:56 am

Bear with me for a moment, as I put on my “drunk 23-year-old girl from Stoughton” hat.  Yes, I’m about to genuflect at the altar of our dapper left fielder, Jacoby Ellsbury.

Ellsbury is the type of player who tends to be over-appreciated by the more casual fans, due to things like a high-yet-empty batting average and gaudy SB totals.  This isn’t to say that he’s not important to the team.  Considering all of Jacoby’s contributions to the field last year (offense, defense, baserunning), fangraphs.com valued him at about $8.4 million dollars, compared to his actual salary of $450,000.  And that’s while factoring in his piss-poor UZR in 2009.  Ellsbury is clearly a worthy player to have in our starting lineup, especially at his current cost.

This year will be slightly different for Ellsbury, as he makes the transition from CF to LF in the wake of defensive wizard Mike Cameron’s acquisition.  I’m going to put my word on the line here and predict a career year for Ellsbury in 2010.  There are several factors leading me toward this forecast:

1. Age: Jacoby will be 26/27 during the 2010 season.  He’s just entering his prime now; these are the years that most players tend to have their best performances.
2. Position Change: The difference in difficulty between LF and CF in Fenway Park is larger than Christina Hendricks‘ bosom.  Ellsbury will be far less strained when milling about the tiny left field in Fenway than he would be if he were to stay in CF.  All of the weaknesses he demonstrated in the field last year (weak throwing arm, questionable instincts) will be at least partially mitigated by this position change.  He may also benefit offensively from a less demanding defensive position that will allow him to concentrate on hitting and sprinting around the basepaths.
3. Experience: During his rookie year, it was clear that plate discipline was an area where Jacoby needed to improve.  Well, it looks like he has slowly been maturing at the plate.  In his first full season, Ellsbury’s K/BB ratio was roughly 2 to 1.  Last year, that number improved to 1.5 to 1.  It would be logical to expect yet another improvement in plate discipline from Ellsbury in 2010 after another year of MLB seasoning is under his belt.

Just to prove that I may not be completely insane here, I’ll post the Top 10 projected outfielders by Wins Above Replacement, as projected by CHONE:

Keep in mind, this is among all MLB outfielders, not just CF or LF.

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By Jimmy, 2/5/2010 11:42 am

The LoHud Blog is one of the more reputable Yankee blogs (ignore the oxymoron for a moment).  Their most notable alum is current Globe writer Peter Abraham, and they seem to enjoy a vast network of sources / contacts, something that your garden variety baseball blog probably does not have.

So, it came as a surprise when LoHud issued a hilarious piece arguing that Derek Jeter is the greatest Yankee of all time.  Some reasons for why Jeter is better than Ruth/Gehrig/Mantle/Ford/Alviro Espinosa:

“Jeter has had to contend with a 24/7 media, with paparazzi following him and his girlfriends and reporting about his personal life in addition to his play on the field.”

The paragraph goes on to compare Minka Kelly (yeah, I don’t know who she is either) to Marilyn Monroe.

“In 2009, he passed Lou Gehrig as the Yankees hit leader…”

Gosh, I wonder why that is.  It’s almost as if there was some event that happened in Gehrig’s life that caused him to retire early.  Well, I’m drawing a blank.  Jeter has more hits, that’s the important takeaway here.

And here’s my favorite paragraph:

“His heart and passion (yes…more please) for the game can be found in his spectacular defensive plays (SPECTACULAR DEFENSIVE PLAYS) and clutch hits. Derek Jeter is the most clutch player ever to put on the pinstripes. There are no specific statistics for clutch situations (except for the one called “clutch” I suppose) but his play when the game on the line is incomparable that he has earned the nickname “Captain Clutch.” Jeter also gets credit for one thing that Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio or Mantle had to deal with: playing for George Steinbrenner. (Yeah, it has to suck playing for the owner that gave you one of the most lucrative contracts in the history of the game. Like Osama Bin Laden, I’m not even convinced that Steinbrenner is still alive.  And the owners during the 1910′s-1960′s were all notoriously ethical and gracious, I guess).

You can read the whole thing here: http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/02/02/pinch-hitting-chris-and-trevor-kaftan/

The hysteria over Captain UZR is a welcome sign akin to the Groundhog Day: baseball season is almost here.

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By Jimmy, 2/3/2010 10:03 am

As noted here, there will likely be an interesting Spring Training battle for the final spot in the Red Sox bullpen.  Let’s take a quick look at the serious candidates and their 2010 projections (per the Marcel forecasting system):

While the projections do give Brian Shouse the best 2010 FIP, the system is assuming that he will continue to be used strictly as a LOOGY, which is something the Sox have not done recently.  Joe Nelson’s high walk rate hurts him, landing him with the worst predicted FIP among the group.  For some reason, Marcel really likes Scott Atchison, the enigmatic reliever coming across the Pacific after 2 seasons in the Japanese leagues.

If Boof Bonser is anything close to his former self after missing all of 2009 with a torn rotator cuff, he’s probably the favorite to land the position due to his ability to step into the rotation as an emergency starter (assuming such a move wouldn’t “disrespect” Tim Wakefield).  If Boof is toast, I’ll go out on a limb and say that the job comes down to Nelson or Atchison.  Shouse is too one dimensional, and Ramon A. Ramirez simply isn’t very good.

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By Jimmy, 2/1/2010 9:52 am

Top prospect Ryan Westmoreland has been in the news quite a bit recently, as fans and scouts alike have taken quite a shine to the local guy. However, the inevitable has finally happened: Westmoreland has been compared to Darin Erstad. Yes, Darin Erstad, the Sultan of Scrappiness. The General of Grit. The Duke of Dedication. I think this is a comparison that might stick to Ryan as he rises through the minor league ranks, for better or for worse.

I’m mostly being a ball-buster here, as there are some similarities between the two players, and it’s only natural that Gary DiSarcina (the guy who made the comparison) would liken Westmoreland to one of his old teammates. Both players are roughly the same size, and if you look at Erstad’s minor league numbers, they aren’t too different from what you might expect from Westmoreland. I just got a chuckle out of the fact that the kid was compared to a player who is most known for garnering the “gritty/scrappy” tag, something we elitist bloggers like to poke fun at every once in a while.

Anyway, I’ll just paste the key excerpts from the above Projo article here:

“makeup”
“play the game the right way”
“like a freight train”
“hard-nosed attitude”

Hey, it could be worse.  He could have been compared to Mark Kotsay.  (If that actually happens, I’ll probably quit following baseball and start a meth lab or hike the Appalachian Trail or something.  If your #1 prospect is the next Mark Kotsay…what’s the point? Of anything?)