Looking at Last Season’s Predictions: How Did I Do?
It’s getting to be that time of year again. I’ve been brainstorming and thinking about the 2010 previews quite a bit, and fun way to start off might be to take a look at my predictions from last spring. How did I do?
I will rate each prediction on the following 4-tier scale:
- Nailed It! - A perfect prediction; I managed to identify the exact team/player/manager for this spot. I deserve a pat on the back, a cold beer on the house, and a solid motorboating of Jennifer Love Hewitt. I am Christ for a day.
- Very Close – I didn’t pick the winner, but I came close. A common example: the team I pick to win the Wild Card ends up winning their division. Hey, cut me some slack. This shit is difficult.
- Off-base – My prediction wasn’t really close. Maybe my logic was justifiable, but the result was nowhere near what I predicted. A spider monkey would make more accurate projections than this one, on average. I should not quit my day job.
- Miserable Failure- My prediction was an absolute abomination, nearly the opposite of what actually occurred. My existence is merely a drain on Earth’s natural resources; I bring absolutely nothing to the table. I deserve to be dragged out of my office, blindfolded, and shot in the face. My public execution will instantly improve the community.
Here are the results:
| LAST-SEASON PREDICTION | RESULT |
| 2009 Playoff Predictions: | |
| AL East: Boston Red Sox | Very Close |
| AL Central: Cleveland Indians | Miserable Failure |
| AL West: Anaheim Angels | Nailed It! |
| AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays | Very Close |
| NL East: New York Mets | Miserable Failure |
| NL Central: Chicago Cubs | Very Close |
| NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers | Nailed It! |
| NL Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals | Very Close |
| ALCS: Boston over Tampa Bay (7 games) | Off-Target |
| NLCS: Los Angeles over Chicago (5 games) | Very Close |
| World Series: Boston over Los Angeles (5 games) | Off-Target |
| Predicted 2009 Award Winners: | |
| AL MVP: Grady Sizemore | Off-Target |
| AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke | Nailed It! |
| AL Rookie of the Year: David Price | Off-Target |
| AL Comeback Player of the Year: Travis Hafner | Very Close |
| AL Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge | Miserable Failure |
| NL MVP: David Wright | Off-Target |
| NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels | Off-Target |
| NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin | Off-Target |
| NL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter | Nailed It! |
| NL Manager of the Year: Manny Acta | Miserable Failure |
Gah! A little too much red/orange, and not nearly enough green for my liking. If you were to give me 2 points for every “Nailed It!”, one point for every “Very Close”, negative one for every “Off-Target”, and negative two for every “Miserable Failure”, my final tally would be -1. Of course, if I really wanted to grade myself, I’d put more weighting on the correctly guessed player awards, since those are much more difficult, and I’d penalize myself more harshly for things like predicting the Mets to win their division. Maybe I’ll work on that scoring system this season.
In any event, preview season is upon us, so keep checking in as we are sure to have interesting stuff posted over the next month and a half.
