We’re about to hit the ground running on our annual 2010 MLB team previews, and I just wanted to give an introduction to my methodology before actually posting the previews.

My approach is similar to the same one I used last year; an attempt to isolate run scoring and run prevention via grades given to the position players, rotation, and bullpen.  This year, I’ve decided to go with a numerical 1-10 projection scale, since it’s a bit more transparent than the A-F grades I gave last year.  The scale works like this: based on the numerical grade I assign each player, I am projecting them to be a certain type of player in 2010. 

• 10- Elite players.  Only a dozen or so offensive 10′s exist, maybe five starting pitchers in all of MLB are 10′s.  10′s are typically slam dunk Hall of Famers if they remain healthy. Example: Albert Pujols.
• 9 – A great player.  Players who are strong All-Star candidates, though not quite elite.  Possible Hall of Famers if they are lucky enough to have a long career without too many injuries. Example: Mark Teixeira 
• 8 – A very good player.  Someone who might be a fringe All-Star, but they have some minor yet noticeable holes in their game that keep them out of the top categories.  Example: Josh Beckett
• 7 - A good player.   Definitely above average, someone who is a household name amongst casual fans, but not an All-Star.  Example: Shin Soo-Choo
• 6 – An above average player.  Basically, your typical starter on a bad team.  Your girlfriend probably doesn’t know who he is. Example: Kevin Kouzmanoff
• 5 – An average MLB player.  A great guy to have on the bench.  You don’t want too many 5′s in your starting lineup, but one or two are fine stopgaps. Example: Bobby Crosby
• 4 - A below-average major leaguer.  Clearly someone you do not want seeing too much playing time.  A competent bench option, someone who won’t embarrass himself if called upon to fill in for injured starters.  Example: Eric Hinske
• 3 - An AAAA caliber player.  If he has option years left, he’ll probably be traveling quite a bit over the course of the year.  Would be a regular player only on a bad team.  Example: Bill Hall
• 2 – Your typical AAA caliber player.  Will have great difficulty competing at the MLB level.  Someone who would usually be summoned when rosters expand on September 1st.  Example: Alex Cora
• 1 - A player who has no business being in the Major Leagues.  He is on the roster for one of two reasons: a) the team airplane pulled a Marshall University, or b) he is the owner’s godson.   Example: Nick Green               

The ratings for a projected starting lineup on a fictional team would probably look something like this:

And the bench would also be graded:

You might consider this a cop-out, but I’m refraining from grading catchers on their fielding skills.  There’s just not enough data readily available, and I refuse to go by CS rates alone (since that’s such a small part of what actually happens behind the plate).

Bench scores would be weighted as 1/5 of the total offensive score. 

We would then move on to the starting pitchers:

Of course, pitchers would only receive one grade.  The final piece would be the bullpen:

To make things simple, I’m considering every non closer a middle-reliever (MR).  Each team will probably have one closer (CL), unless the role is completely undecided, a la the 2003 Red Sox.

Run prevention is 50% of the team score, with the other 50% being run production.  90% of run production is pitching, with 10% being defense (the 90/10 thing is completely pulled out of my ass.  I used 95/5 last year, and in retrospect, it seems like I undervalued fielding.  This is all trial by error).  2/3 of pitching is determined by the starters’ score, with the remaining 1/3 coming from the bullpen. 

That’s pretty much how the system works.  The above team, while scoring a 9.9 in a melodiousness scale, would rate as a 6.54 on the field.

4 Responses to “Prelude to the 2010 MLB Team Previews”

1. Mike says:

   2/22/2010 at 9:21 am

   I love how you used Choo as a name that casual fans know. Hilarious.
2. Jimmy says:

   2/22/2010 at 12:26 pm

   Choo was probably the wrong guy to use there for that specific example. Maybe someone like Nick Swisher would have been a better choice. (if Shoo played for the Sox or Yanks, he’d have his own brand of salsa by now).
3. Mike says:

   2/23/2010 at 6:00 pm

   Nah, I like Choo. I always remember that old racist dude in Fenway laughing everytime Choo came to bat.
4. Jimmy says:

   2/23/2010 at 6:38 pm

   Oh yeah! “What is this world coming to…”. I can’t wait till I turn 80 and basically gain the ability to say anything in public without repercussions.