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By Jimmy, 4/29/2010 9:37 am

4/29/10: Red Sox 2, Blue Jays 0

Jon Lester (who has a career April ERA of 4.76) finally flipped the switch from “Spring Mode” to “Summer Mode”, dominating the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park with a 1 hit, 11 strikeout performance.

I went back and look at Lester’s previous gems, and decided to rank last night’s outing relative to other memorable starts (his no-hitter, for example).  Here is what I came up with.

Some might balk at the thought of the no-hitter missing out on the #1 ranking, but I decided to factor the degree of difficulty into this analysis.  Obviously, pitching against the Royals at home is quite a bit different from pitching against the Yankees in the Bronx.  For instance, if Lester had given up just one hit, the Royals start would probably fall to the bottom of this list (and he would have been immediately yanked from the game).

Anyway, the larger point here is that last night’s performance was solidly in the top 5 of Lester’s career regular season starts.

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By Jimmy, 4/28/2010 9:27 am

4/27/10: Red Sox 2, Blue Jays 1

Maybe Theo Epstein messed on up an e-mail this winter.   Instead of sending the “Run Prevention” memo to all Red Sox starting pitchers, he mistakenly sent it to only Clay Buchholz (who read the message 27 times, once on each of the laptops sitting in his basement).

Buchholz came through with one of the biggest performances of his major league career, throwing a career high 117 pitches (yes, more pitches than even his no-hitter) and preserving an exasperated bullpen while defeating the hot-hitting Toronto Blue Jays on their turf.  Clay has by far been the most effective starting pitcher on the team; he now has a 200 ERA+ on the young season, and is the only Red Sox starter above 100.

It does look as if he’s steadily improving.  Let’s take a look at how his game score (a stat used for measuring a starting pitcher’s performance in each individual outing, listed in the Baseball Reference game logs):

He’s getting there.

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By Jimmy, 4/27/2010 8:57 am

4/26/10: Red Sox 13, Blue Jays 12

We’ll call it “April Jitters”.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.

Josh Beckett, who just a few weeks ago signed a large 4-year contract, has pitched terribly in three of the five starts he’s made in 2010.  Yesterday’s fiasco was probably his worst game of the year, as his velocity was noticeably down a few MPH.  After allowing 12 baserunners in 3+ innings, Terry Francona euthanized him like a sick horse.

The bullpen, aside from Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard, was again shaky, but luckily the Sox were bailed out by the bats.

Notes & Takeaways:

• Jason Varitek, one of yesterday’s heroes…wait, what did I just type?  Oh fuck, I must have stumbled into another wormhole again.  It’s 2001 again, isn’t it?  Dammit, I hate when I violate the space-time continuum.  Oh well, time to go short some Enron stock.
• Let’s ignore sample sizes for a moment and reflect on the fact that Varitek is actually leading the team in slugging percentage.  In other news, Stephen Hawking was named to the U.S. Olympic 4 x 100 meter relay team, and “Snookie” has been hired as the Dean of Applied Mathematics at MIT.
• The Sox scored 13 runs without hitting a single home run.  I’m not sure how long it’s been since that has happened, but I’d wager it’s been a few years at least.
• Wow, you’re telling me that a marriage between an MMA fighter and a diseased, drug-addled porn star has resulted in domestic violence?  I’m shocked.  Shocked, I tells ya.

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By Jimmy, 4/26/2010 9:07 am

4/25/10: Orioles 7, Red Sox 6 (10 innings)

The Red Sox bullpen, not too long ago a source of pride, has been one of the worst in baseball thus far in 2010.

While Scott Atchison is currently wearing the goat horns, he is only a small part of a larger problem that extends way beyond the last reliever on the depth chart.  Consider Manny Delcarmen, whose BABIP is a mind-numbing .044, suggesting that the pendulum of luck will soon decapitate him.  Consider Jonathan Papelbon, whose recent performances have reminded us of a time when the Red Sox closer shared the same first name as an orange cat from the Sunday comic strips (not Garfield).  Consider Ramon Ramirez, once counted on as an 8th inning set-up man, but now  a walking batting practice machine (5.81 xFIP).

In the cases of Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, one might have confidence that they’ll turn things around given their track record of the last few years.  However, Ramirez and Delcarmen are two guys who I would not want to hand the ball in a tight situation at this point.  The problem is, the two Scotts (Atchison and Schoeneweis) are already playing that role.  There’s just not room for four bad relievers in the bullpen.

Notes and Takeaways:

• It’s Wakefield to the bullpen.  Kudos to Terry Francona for making the right decision, albeit an awkward one.  The irony of yesterday’s loss is that Wakefield (the game’s starter) would have been a perfect reliever to go to in the late innings when the game was tied and Papelbon was unavailable.  From here on out, the Sox will have that option.
• Rob Bradford has the Sox 16th in his Power Rankings.  Right in between the Cubs and the Mets.  Talk about shameful company…
• The Sox have reportedly signed a catcher from Cuba.  His swing is pretty, but there’s no word yet on his throwing arm.

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By Jimmy, 4/22/2010 6:52 am

4/21/10: Red Sox 8, Rangers 7

Kevin Youkilis, after watching Dustin Pedroia get intentionally walked in front of him (primarily to set up a force play), hit a walk-off double with two outs in the bottom of the 12th inning to score Marco Scutaro and give the Red Sox their second consecutive victory.

Obviously, seeing a pitcher intentionally walk a pygmy to pitch to you is enough of an insult to enrage any man.  Kevin, being a gamer, was able to channel his rage into Blue Collar Intensity™, which enabled him to hit that game-winning double.

This game was certainly eventful, and had everything from J.D. Drew hitting a grand slam on a 1-2 count against a left-handed pitcher to Jason Varitek using his “intangibles” to save a run by blocking the plate.

Notes & Takeaways:

• In an clear example of a play that makes you think “I’m glad it worked out, but…please don’t do that again”, Marco Scutaro advanced to second on a sac fly to center field in the 12th to set up that Youkilis hit.  I didn’t think he was going to make it, but he just beat the tag.
• Darnell McDonald had another huge night, with a HR, two walks, and tremendous play in CF.  It will be interesting to see what roster move is made when Ellsbury is ready to return to the lineup.  Josh Reddick was originally ahead of McDonald on the depth chart, but this might have changed in the past week.
• The two recent dramatic victories have masked a continuing problem: the team’s complete inability to stop runners from stealing bases.  The Sox have now allowed 31 steals, more than twice the amount of the second worst team in that department (and still have managed to catch only Robbie Cano). They are on pace to allow 359 stolen bases on the year.  To give you a sense of how crazy that number is, consider the best base-stealing team in modern history:  the 1976 Oakland A’s.  They “only” stole 341 bases.

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By Jimmy, 4/21/2010 9:10 am

4/20/10 – Red Sox 7, Rangers 6

Darnell McDonald, a 31-year-old who has spent most of the past nine seasons in AAA (not just “the minors”, but AAA, a heartbeat away from the major leagues), wasn’t exactly the guy you’d expect to see hitting game-tying home runs and walk-off singles in April at Fenway Park.  But, when two starting outfielders end up on the DL, unlikely heroes sometimes step up and deliver.

McDonald, the 6th or 7th outfielder on Boston’s depth chart (depending on whether or not you consider Bill Hall’s medical cadaver an outfielder) pinch hit for Josh Reddick in the 8th inning and hit a game-tying 2-run HR against Darren Oliver, before finishing the job in the bottom of the 9th with a walk-off single against Frank Francisco.  He essentially gave the Red Sox something they had been missing the majority of this young season: critical late inning hits.

Small sample euphoria aside, can this guy help out in the long run?  Here’s what we know:

Obviously, we can’t read too much into those gaudy Pawtucket numbers since it’s only been a couple of weeks, but his 2009 performance in Louisville tells us that McDonald’s recent offensive success might not be a total fluke.  McDonald also hits from the right side of the plate, making him a decent compliment to a very left-handed roster.   One other reason why he could be useful around here:

Defensive versatility.  No, you wouldn’t want McDonald playing CF on a long term basis, but he might be a better substitute option there than, say…J.D. Drew.  When you combine offense and defense, I’d opt for him over Bill Hall any day of the week.

In summary, what you’ll probably see from McDonald is what you would see with Lou Merloni when the Sox had an injury-prone infield a few years back: a guy who spends most of his time in Pawtucket, but will occasionally make the 50 minute trip north and fill in competently.  And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why the strategy of selecting appropriate AAAA filler should not be ignored.

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By Jimmy, 4/20/2010 9:33 am

4/19/10: Rays 8, Red Sox 2

The last time the Red Sox began a season this poorly, Jose Canseco (i.e. this guy) was the DH and Heathcliff Slocumb was the closer.  The Celtics were the worst team in the Eastern Conference.   The “Macarena” had taken the western world by storm, and it was still OK to draw pictures of machine guns in public school.  Yes, it was a different time.

Of course, the 1996 Red Sox never really faced the level of expectations levied upon the 2010 iteration of the Olde Towne Team.  An 85 win season probably won’t go over very well this year.  Things will turn around to some degree (this pitching staff is not the 5.3 run per abomination we’ve been witnessing), but losing 9 out of the first 13 games isn’t really going to help in the standings at the end of the year.

Miscellany:

• If you really want to get yourself nice and pissed off on a Tuesday morning, check out this box score and this box score.  In particular, look closely at the starting pitchers.
• Mike Cameron is going on the DL with an abdominal pull.  No word yet on who will be replacing him.

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By Jimmy, 4/19/2010 10:09 am

As massive crowds gather to watch malnutriotioned foreigners jog past Kenmore Square, the spotlight of the baseball world will be on John Lackey and the reeling Red Sox.

If I were to use a marathon metaphor, I would compare the Sox to Uta Pippig. You know, the runner who shit herself a few years ago. But, on second thought, that metaphor really wouldn’t fit at all, since Uta actually won the race, and the Sox have not sniffed victory in quite some time. I’m sure there have plenty of marathoners who have soiled themselves without winning. In fact, I’m pretty certain that’s what would happen to me if I attempted to run 26 miles.

Pre-Game Notes:

• Mike Cameron is a late scratch from the lineup, and might actually have a another kidney stone.  This would be one of those perspective-gathering moments for you and I to remember when we’re having a rough week; it could always be worse.
• Red Sox catchers now have less than a 5% success rate in throwing out runners.  They have caught one guy out of 21 attempts.
• Catching impotency aside, reversion to the mean cuts both ways.  This team will eventually play much better baseball, and we can only hope that it begins soon.  Like, this morning.

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By Jimmy, 4/16/2010 9:05 am

4/15/10: Twins 8, Red Sox 0

I’m going to assume that yesterday’s abominable play was the result of some sort of silent Tea Party protest against the progressive tax rate.   The Red Sox, upset that a large chunk of that $170 million in salaries will be used to build roads, schools, and Chevy Impalas, decided to not attempt to win yesterdays game in a show of defiance.

Think about it: the main culprit of yesterday’s loss was an old, rich, religious white male.  After listening to Sarah Palin’s folksy wisdom in Boston Common, it’s really no surprise that a couple of those knuckleballs fluttered a bit less than usual on the day that the government takes away a heaping portion of his hard earned wages.  My only surprise is that Wakefield didn’t wear a Thomas Jefferson costume to the mound.

Notes and Takeaways:

• The whole run prevention thing has yet to really take effect in the early going, as the Sox have allowed the 4th most runs in the American League.  Things don’t exactly get any easier this weekend, as the Tampa Bay Rays (averaging 5.11 runs per game) come to town.
• The Sox face rookie Wade Davis tonight.  They actually faced him once last year, and tore him to shreds (8 runs in 2.2 innings).

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By Jimmy, 4/13/2010 9:12 am

4/12/10: Twins 5, Red Sox 2

This is why we watch the games.

Carl Pavano, a notorious underachiever with an 87 ERA+ since his memorable contract with the Yankees was signed in 2005, is able to defeat Jon Lester, arguably the best left-handed pitcher in the American League.  If you ran this one through some sort of Monte Carlo simulation, the Sox would probably win 800 out of 1,000.

Yes, on paper, there should have been 40,000 disappointed Scandinavian baseball fans trudging home from their brand new stadium, after a humiliating defeat served up by the big bad East Coast $170 million juggernaut.  Instead, the sun shines of the Land of 10,000 Lakes, and clouds form over the Hub (metaphorically speaking; it’s actually quite nice outside this morning).

And that, my friends, is why we watch the games.  Unfortunately, I could not watch this game, and I will not be able to watch the next two games.  I suppose when you build an open-air stadium in the middle of the Howling Fjords, it makes sense to treat your hypothermia-plagued fans to as much sunlight as possible.

I’ll try my best to pay attention to the action at Target Field in between TPS reports tomorrow and Thursday.

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By Jimmy, 4/12/2010 9:22 am

4/11/10: Red Sox 8, Royals 6

This game had “Clay Buchholz” written all over it.  The young starter had impressive stuff, as always, but he couldn’t really get into any sort of groove after his defense betrayed him in the 1st inning.

I made the call a few months ago that Bill Hall would be an absolute liability at SS during Marco Scutaro’s off days (in addition to being an offensive black hole), and his play in the 1st was particularly bone-headed: not getting out of the way when a charging outfielder is calling you off on a pop up.

Thankfully, the Red Sox continued their power surge and provided Buchholz with ample run support, as the team escapes from BBQ Mecca with the victory.  Now, it’s off to the brand new Target Stadium in Minnesota, where the Red Sox will be the first opposing team to play in the park.  The last time Boston opened up an opposing team’s new stadium was in 1923, when they lost at The Toilet (the original one, with the extra large bowl).

Notes and Takeaways:

• Jacoby Ellsbury’s chest x-ray came back negative after his collision with Adrian Beltre, but he does have contused ribs, and I’m guessing will not be on the field to start the Target Stadium inaugural game.   Jacoby will have to get used to Beltre and his 20+ UZR range, a stark change from both Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis at 3B.
• Ortiz struck out 4 times, and despite the win, I’d be winning to wager that this will be the most discussed Red Sox topic on the airwaves today.  In fact, I’ll be avoiding sports radio today in general.  Aside from Ortiz, the other themes du jour will be the ball-washing of Phil Mickelson and the exoneration of that fat rapist Pittsburgh QB.  I’ll go with classic rock.
• Manny Delcarmen’s velocity is creeping back up, after the reliever threw two scoreless innings last night.  His fastball averaged just short of 94 MPH (it was 92 MPH in his other appearance last week, and around 90-91 MPH at the end of 2009).  At his best, Delcarmen operates in the 95-97 MPH range, but I’m not sure if we’ll ever see that again on a consistent basis.

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By Jimmy, 4/9/2010 9:40 am

Tim Wakefield, the Red Sox version of Fred Couples, takes the hill tonight against the Kansas City Royals.  While it hasn’t been made official yet, I’m assuming that Victor Martinez will be behind the plate once again.

The Red Sox faced Kansas City in September, using this same Wakefield-Martinez battery.  The result was a 12-9 loss, highlighted by 5 stolen bases allowed in Wakefield’s 5 innings of work.    Keep in mind that the Royals are not a fast team; they stole only 88 bases in all of 2009, compared to a league average of 110.  A few other factoids:

• In Wakefield’s three 2009 starts where Martinez has been the catcher, there have been 9 stolen bases and one man actually caught stealing.
• At this point you’re probably wondering who was the guy that Martinez managed to throw out.  None other than A.J. Pierzynski, a catcher in his mid 30′s with a total of 10 steals in his 13 year career, a guy who would probably have difficulty outrunning the woman who plays “Phyllis” from The Office.
• Martinez allowed 4 steals in the three games against New York.  He caught one guy: Robbie Cano.  Cano is one of the worst baserunners in the league relative to his actual speed.  At least Martinez can reach the low-hanging fruit.
• Since the beginning of 2009, Martinez has thrown out only 10 runners in 70 chances, or 14.3%.

I love having Victor Martinez’ bat in the lineup, but I’m really cringing at the thought of seeing this tandem in action over the course of 20-25 games this season.  A handful of these games will inevitably come against the Tampa Bay Rays, who led the league with 194 steals in 2009.  It could get ugly.

The baseball equivalent of parking on the street and leaving your iPhone in your car.

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By Jimmy, 4/8/2010 10:49 am

Today is opening day for many of the full-season minor league affiliates throughout baseball.  Let’s take a quick look at each of the 4 full-season minor league teams in the Red Sox organization, highlighting some individual players to keep an eye on.

Names highlighted in red: these are players who I believe could have a career as a role-player in the major leagues, but probably will not become a long-term regular or a star.
Names highlighted in blue: these are players who I believe could have a career as a MLB regular, and in some cases, a MLB star.

Thanks to soxprospects.com for keeping on top of this stuff.

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By Jimmy,

4/7/10: Yankees 3, Red Sox 1

I think this is the sort of game we feared we would see every once in a while after the front office’s plans to re-shape were executed this winter.  Decent pitching performances wasted due to the offense coming up short.

Newcomer John Lackey was impressive, on a night where his control wasn’t really as excellent as it usually is.  What caught my eye is how he was able to really mix up his pitch selection and keep the Yankees offense off balance.

When the Sox opened up the vault and signed this guy, I took a long hard look at his peripheral statistics and wondered how he manages to achieve the level of success that he does.  His K rates are decent, but not spectacular (roughly 7 Ks per 9 innings), and the same could be said about his ground ball rates (~45%).  It could be the level of variation on his plus pitches.  You don’t typically see a near even 1/3 split like the one illustrated above, and that has to be tough to face as a hitter.  Especially when each of those three pitches is thrown with excellent command.

Notes and Takeaways:

• The ultimate failing of the Red Sox was allowing the zombie of Chan Ho Park to throw three scoreless innings of relief.  When the Yankees roll out their weakest reliever for three innings during a close game, you have to be ready to take advantage of that.   Once Mariano Rivera is summoned, time has run out.
• There were some hard hit warning-track balls in the bottom of the 9th inning that had the crowd on their feet in anticipation of a walk-off celebration, but the baseball gods were having none of it.
• Umpire Paul Schrieber had a ridiculously tight strike zone.  Andy Pettitte, in particular, was squeezed quite a bit throughout his six innings of work.  Both starting pitchers were really excellent, and they could have each lasted much longer than 6 innings if their pitch totals weren’t inflated by the man in blue.
• Let’s see.  David Ortiz gets the only RBI of the night for the Red Sox, but he also strikes out in two critical spots.  The media now has a dilemma: which aspect of last night should they highlight, the positive or the negative?  If Vegas was taking bets, I know which one I’d put my money on.
• It’s becoming clear that runners are going to steal bases at will against the Red Sox, even more so than in prior years.  When Tim Wakefield is on the mound, forget about it.  They might as well install one of those airport conveyor belts between first and second base.

Miscellany:

• Speaking of Ortiz, his’ visceral expletive-filled reaction to questions about his slow start will probably have the opposite effect that he would like.  The media now tastes blood (it’s been the #1 topic on sports radio), and they will be circling his locker like sharks at every opportunity, hoping for more drama.  The best way to repel these sycophants is to be boring.  Give short, cliched answers, show no emotion.  They’ll take their microphones and saunter over to Dustin Pedroia’s locker in no-time (“Wow, a short guy with self-confidence! Let’s hear what he has to say!”).
• If you are like me (a sports fan who generally disdains righteous indignation, faux outrage, and family-values hysteria), you will be rooting like hell for Tiger Woods to win the Masters.  People who worry about what goes on in the bedrooms of strangers need to be slapped down like the yappy little dogs they are.  A Tiger victory in Augusta will effectively do that, at least temporarily.
• If I were a billionaire, I would pay top dollar for the opportunity to hunt Gloria Allred like a wild boar in a remote forest, sort of like Ice-T in Surviving the Game.
• The undefeated Pittsburgh Pirates had a walk-off victory last night, and there were actually 31,000 people in the seats at PNC park.  Keep it up, guys.

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By Jimmy, 4/6/2010 11:15 pm

4/6/10: Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

In a small touch of irony, an error committed by one of the new slick-fielding members of the Red Sox (SS Marco Scutaro) was a key factor in the team’s first loss of the season. Scutaro picked up a routine grounder and one-hopped it to first with two outs in the eighth, prolonging the inning in which the Yankees scored the go-ahead run.

Usually, Kevin Youkilis scoops these errant throws, but he wasn’t able to hold on this time, and we really shouldn’t count on him to do so.

John Lester had decent velocity; his 4-seam fastball was around 96 MPH throughout his outing. However, there were shades of Josh Beckett’s appearance on Sunday night, as Lester couldn’t really command his cutter or breaking pitches. His pitch total piled up quickly, and he was out of the game after the fifth inning.

Notes & Takeaways:

• While his box score line only says 1 for 5, Dustin Pedroia appears to be seeing the ball well out of the gate.  Two of his outs were hard line drives, and he crushed a foul ball that sailed just left of the foul pole above the Green Monster.
• Joba Chamberlain was noticeably sharper, and was starting to resemble the pitcher he was in 2008.  This included his patented 8th-inning celebratory fist pumps (crystal meth can hinder your ability to recognize that the game isn’t over yet).
• Angel “Stand & Deliver” Hernandez is now officially my least favorite umpire.  This time, he was behind the plate.  His erratic strike zone and odd reluctance to call timeout or appeal to 1B/3B was driving me crazy.  Is he an egomaniac, or just clueless?  Either way, he sucks at his job.
• Continuing that theme, there was yet another blown double play call at 1B last night.  A 5th inning throw had clearly beaten Mark Teixeira to first base.  Instead, the blown call proved to be very costly, as the next two hitters drove in two runs on a double and a sac fly.
• Ortiz continues to frustrate and depress fans by coming up small in big moments.  Expect him to sit in lieu of Mike Lowell against left-hander Minister Shnozz on Wednesday.
• Dan Bard continues to inspire optimism.  The young right-hander threw one pitch in particular that caught my eye: a change-up to Robinson Cano that tailed away from the left-handed hitter (like a screwball).  If he can master that pitch along with his slider…watch out.

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By Jimmy,

Through my sources, I’ve managed to obtain a full transcript of Randy Levine’s comments to the Milwaukee Brewers’ ownership group.  Below is the portion of Levine’s comments that were not quoted by the press.  A Dewey’s House exclusive:

OOM-pah LOOM-pah, dipadee-doo. 
I’ve got a little message for you.
OOM-pah LOOM-pah dipadee-dee.
We’ve outspent you by a factor of three.

What do you get when you sit in the sun?
Sizzling like a burger well done?
Why do I look a like a basketball?
Melanoma’s not really fun..at..all.

(Cashman: I don’t like the look of it)

OOM-pah LOOM-pah dipodee-din.
If you wish to have healthy skin.
You will use SPF thir-tee.
And then you’ll avoid looking just…like..me.

Doopidee-dee.

Weird. I’m not sure of the origin of the strange dialect Levine seemed to be using there. I’ll report back if I hear more.

Comments (5)

By Jimmy,

We've brought in a consultant to help us with the 2010 predictions.

Watching the least-likable college basketball program in the country win a national championship was rather tortuous, so if my 2010 MLB predictions turn out to be laughably wrong (like, for instance, last season), I’ll blame my lapse in judgment on post-traumatic stress disorder brought on by staring at Mike Krzyzewski’s smarmy face for too long.

Coach K is apparently going to turn down a $12-15 million per year salary offer from the NJ Nets, so he can stay at Duke and continue to breed his genetically engineered army of pseudo-Mormons.  Look, Durham is a nice place and New Jersey is an open sewer, but we’re talking about an 8 figure salary.  He could live in Ocean City and fly a helicopter to work every day,  if he wanted to.  Why can’t this guy just succumb to the natural greed inherent in all Americans?  It’s OK to display human flaws.  Take the money, you lipless ferret.

On to America’s pastime.

Projected 2010 Finishes:

AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox

I know, I know.  Yankees winning the AL East and Red Sox winning the wild card, I’m not really breaking away from the herd on this one.  I’d have to guess that most people are banking on the same thing.  Do you know why that is?  It’s because the prediction makes sense.  On paper, these are clearly the two best teams in the American League.  They are too far ahead of any team in the Central or the West.  The only thing other teams can hope for is a cannibalization effect (Sox, Yanks, and Rays beating up on each other to the point that their win-loss records slip behind other wildcard contenders).

Look for the Royals to make gains, and the Tigers to disappoint.

NL Wildcard winner: Cincinnati Reds

My reach pick in the NL is the Reds, who I believe have enough starting pitching and offense to make noise in 2010.  Breakout performances from guys like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey could make baseball’s oldest franchise the story of the summer.

ALCS: Rangers over Yankees (5 games)
NLCS: Dodgers over Cardinals (7 games)

World Series: I predict that the Texas Rangers will win the first World Series championship in the history of their franchise, beating the Dodgers in a hotly contested 7 game series.

AL Cy Young Award: Felix Hernandez (SEA – SP)
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NYY – 3B)
AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz (TEX – SP)

NL Cy Young Award: Tim Lincecum (SF – SP)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL – 1B)
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward (ATL – OF)

My NL award predictions seem bland, but Occam’s Razor applies here.  Lincecum and Pujols are too far ahead of anyone else.  I feel a little slimy after picking Heyward, since the hype machine is in full force after his debut yesterday (an actual Peter Gammons tweet from this morning: “Every day Jason Heyward looks in the mirror and asks, ‘am I the person I want to be?’ great talent, greater family”…OY VEY, GAMMO), but there aren’t many other candidates for RoY in the NL.  I suppose Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alvarez could give him a run for his money.

Other predictions:

• Comeback players of the year:  Carlos Quentin (CHI, OF), Anibal Sanchez (FLA, SP)
• Managers of the year: Ron Washington (TEX), Dusty Baker (CIN)
• First managers fired: Bob Geren (OAK), Bud Black (SD)

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By Jimmy,

HoF'er Jimmy Collins, considered by many to be the greatest pre-WWII third baseman.

After months of dismal winter highlighted by earthquakes, flooding, and skyrocketing unemployment rates, a pleasant distraction in the form of the 2010 baseball season has arrived.  Technically, this team preview is a day late, but hopefully not a dollar short.

Arrivals: John Lackey (SP), Mike Cameron (CF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Marco Scutaro (SS), Scott Schoeneweis (RP), Scott Atchison (RP), Bill Hall (IF), Jeremy Hermida (OF)

Departures: Jason Bay (LF), Billy Wagner (RP), Takashi Saito (RP), Casey Kotchman (1B), Ales Gonzalez (SS)

You know by now that the Red Sox have undergone a significant facelift over the winter, both in terms of roster makeup and strategy.  The large number of names on that “arrivals” list sort of highlights the massive rebalancing effort undertaken by the front office in the past few months.  The one significant personnel loss is, of course, power-hitting outfielder Jason Bay.  In his absence, the Red Sox will try a different approach in 2010: an increased focus on run prevention.

Projected 2010 Starting Lineup:

Projected 2010 Bench:

As you can see by glancing at those fielding ratings juxtaposed with the hitting ratings, this Red Sox team in unlike any we have seen in recent memory.  While the gloves are obviously a strong point in comparison to the bats, the offense should be able to hold their own.  They won’t outscore the Yankees over the course of the year, but a top 5 finish in AL runs in likely.  The biggest question marks are with Adrian Beltre’s bat, and the team’s exposure to left-handed pitching (particularly Ortiz, Drew, and Ellsbury).

There might be a way to hedge the latter problem.  I made this post over the winter illustrating how Boston could actually keep Mike Lowell on the roster and use him to their advantage.  Now that the deal with the Texas Rangers has fallen through, it looks like the Sox might actually retain the veteran corner infielder’s services this season.  It might not be what Lowell wants (understandably, he’d prefer to go to a team where he would be a primary starter), but it might be the best scenario for the Red Sox, given David Ortiz’ deteriorating abilities against left-handed pitchers.

I am very bearish on Bill Hall, however, the Sox do have Jed Lowrie on the DL.  Lowrie will get a chance to prove himself in AAA, and if he heats up in Pawtucket while Hall struggles up here, a change will be made.

Projected 2010 Rotation:

The front three is as strong as any other in the major leagues.  The question marks come after John Lackey’s turn in the rotation.  Tim Wakefield is the king of the league average 100 ERA+ performance, which would normally be palatable from a 4th or 5th starter.  However, his age and health raise concerns, as a 40+ ballplayer’s abilities could erode at any time. Timmy could see a sharp decline in performance, and when it happens, his effectiveness is probably gone for good.  To his credit, he did look fine in the spring.  Clay Buchholz’ talent is not in question, but his ability to successfully challenge MLB hitters on a consistent basis has yet to be proved.

For now, I’ll keep Daisuke Matsuzaka out of the equation.  He’s going to make a few rehab starts in the minors before making his 2010 MLB debut, which means a few weeks on the shelf, at minimum.  If he does return and proves to be ineffective, his 2010 campaign will go a lot like 2009: a long, frustrating shell game between the DL and various minor league affiliates.

Projected 2010 Bullpen:

The Sox bullpen takes a step after Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, two reliable set-up arms, leave as free-agents.  They are replaced by Scott Atchison, a wild card who had moderate success in Japan these past two years, and Scott Schoenewies, a pitcher who might have some marginal use in situational “LOOGY” roles.  I’m assuming that Atchison performs at the level of an average AL middle reliever, since we really don’t have too much to go on.  While the back end of the bullpen is fairly secure with the combination of Papelbon, Bard, and Ramirez, the early bullpen could prove to be a weakness if a starter can’t go beyond 5 or so innings.

For a team playing in one of the more notorious hitting environments in the game, shifting from an offensive focus to a pitching/defense focus could prove to be a difficult transition.  On paper, the team does not have the raw talent to match New York, but they aren’t far off.  The Sox will need to stay healthy and avoid any significant regression in order to win baseball’s strongest division, the American League East.  naturally, the Sox come up with the second highest team score out of all the squads I previewed.

Team Score: 7.56

As always, the Red Sox will field a competitive team, and at the very least, they will provide us with some long-awaited entertainment for the next 6 months.

Next: league predictions (standings, awards, World Series winners)

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By Jimmy, 4/5/2010 1:18 pm

Multiple sources are reporting that the Red Sox have locked up Josh Beckett from 2011 through 2014, agreeing to pay the right-hander a guaranteed total of $68 million.  This includes a $5 million signing bonus and a $15.75 million annual salary.

It’s an awkwardly timed announcement considering Beckett was slapped around by the Yankees on national television less than 24 hours ago, but I’ll reiterate what I posted last week: the deal is an attractive one from the team’s perspective, especially without that 5th guaranteed year. 

Pete Abraham provides a nice summary of the long-term status of the starting pitching situation in Boston, given this recent news.  While there are no guarantees that these starters will maintain their effectiveness in the coming 5 year span, the Red Sox have the benefit of some stability, and can spend time devising long-term plans for other spots the roster.

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By Jimmy,

4/4/10: Red Sox 9, Yankees 7

Josh Beckett was all over the place with his offspeed pitches.

I was never a fan of the idea of opening the season at Fenway Park after 8pm on a Sunday night, especially against the Yankees.  My biggest reason for this was if the Red Sox played a long, drawn-out marathon game and lost in an undignified fashion, a combination of fatigue and frustration would tempt me to jump in front of a Red Line train on Monday morning.

Of course, that scenario proved to be 50% accurate.  The game was indeed a marathon, but it was the Red Sox who emerged victorious at midnight.  And just like that, some MBTA driver is spared a mountain of paperwork and therapy.

Why would I have been depressed if the Sox lost last night’s game?  It’s not that I feel it would have been a harbinger of things to come in 2010.  I am still very much looking forward to experiencing the 2010 baseball season in its entirety.   It’s just not the way the season should begin.  A nationally televised 8pm worknight game against the Yankees, it’s just too much weight to hit us with in early April.  There’s no need for MLB to play that card this early in the year.

The Red Sox won, so we can all smile and laugh about it.  But, maybe the whole “1pm opener against the Orioles on a Tuesday” methodology is the better way to start things off, if we expect to pace ourselves for the inevitable roller coaster of the Red Sox regular season?

Notes and Takeaways:

• The biggest factor of all during the early innings was the complete inability of Josh Beckett to command his breaking ball (only 1/3 of his curveballs were thrown for strikes), which allowed Yankee hitters to sit on his fastball and his 88 MPH “changeup”.
• While C.C. Sabathia kept the Red Sox in check during the first 4 innings, it was clear that he wasn’t in mid-season form.  His fastball didn’t have the usual high-90′s velocity, and his normally excellent control was off a bit.  As a side note, it definitely appears that C.C. avoided the elliptical machine over the winter.
• It was great to see Pedro Martinez make an entrance and throw out the first pitch.  One critique: there was no need to blare the Phil Collins song during Pedro’s walk to the mound.  It just wasn’t necessary.  I don’t think any music was needed there.  Sometimes you just have to let the emotion come naturally.
• I don’t mind Steven Tyler kicking around the ballpark every once in a while, because he could actually sing at one point in time (and he is apparently good at creating attractive daughters).  But, the Neil Diamond relationship needs to be severed immediately.  The song is terrible, he is terrible, and he needs to be excommunicated from Fenway Park.  If the Sox were losing in the 8th inning, I would have cauterized my ear canals with a blow torch rather than hear “so good, so good, so good”.
• Another person who was a sight for sore eyes after a long, cold winter: NESN correspondent Heidi Watney, whose baseball analysis never ceases to get my attention.  I actually think NESN should institute a rule: when the Sox are losing, Heidi must offer commentary at least three times per inning.  She’s just so damn…insightful.
• Green Monster 1, Jacoby Ellsbury 0.  He’ll get better, but it will take some time.
• Scott Schoeneweis (create your macros now, gentlemen) was impressive against a couple of left-handers, showing that he might have some value as a situational reliever in the Red Sox bullpen this year.
• After being called out at first base on a questionable play, Dustin Pedroia looked like he was about to throw a haymaker at the Edward James Olmos lookalike umpire, Angel Hernandez.  The dark, twisted part of me wishes Dustin followed through (Hernandez had porked the Sox on a double play call in the early innings).
• Another encouraging sign: SS Marco Scutaro. Why?  He managed to actually make some routine plays.  Don’t laugh.  At this point, it’s all a Sox fan could ask for out of that position.  The infield defense, in general, was just terrific.  No web gems, no highlight reel plays.  Just execution.  Glorious, glorious execution.
• It the battle of 8th-inning set-up relievers, it certainly appeared that the Red Sox had the upper hand.  Joba Chamberlain has yet to regain that upper 90′s heat he had in his pre-rotation days, and while his slider is still nasty, he’s not going to fool many people with that 93 MPH fastball.  Daniel Bard, on the other hand, looks like he could be closing for most MLB teams.
• Good night.