Does John Lackey Have “The Yips”?
5/26/10: Red Sox 11, Rays 3
One of the most notable aspects of John Lackey’s 8 year career coming into this season was his consistently good control. Lackey’s annual walk rates from 2002 though 2009 have ranged from 2.1 to 3.1 with very little variance, and it’s been a big reason for his success over the years.
| John Lackey’s Walks per 9 Innings | |
| 2002 | 2.7 |
| 2003 | 2.9 |
| 2004 | 2.7 |
| 2005 | 3.1 |
| 2006 | 3.0 |
| 2007 | 2.1 |
| 2008 | 2.2 |
| 2009 | 2.4 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.37 |
| Career Average (pre-2010) | 2.6 |
Lackey’s not really a strikeout pitcher or a ground ball pitcher, and thus pinpoint command is really a critical part of his game. This is why his current walk rate of 4.4 is so alarming. It’s nearly 5 standard deviations above his career average. Two deviations above the mean is the outer edge of what you would see on a normal distribution of measurements in a sample. Three is extreme (think of it as the 99th percentile). Four is downright improbable, and 5 is just insane. Something is up.
According to Lackey, that was the best he’s thrown the ball all season. I do admire his approach, because he seems to handle himself well when guys are getting on base or after a lousy inning. I was shocked to see him in the 7th inning of that game, but I think there’s something to be said for that (he racked up nearly 100 pitches after 5 innings). Lackey’s a guy I really want to see succeed here. I suppose the whole 5-year contract thing has a lot to do with that.
Luckily, the Red Sox provided Lackey with plenty of run support, and completed an impressive sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sox have won 8 out of their last 9 games (all against very tough opponents: the Yankees, Twins, Phillies, and Rays) and are now right in the thick of things with the 4th best record in the American League.
Notes & Takeaways:
- I switched over from the Celtics game once I came to the realization (again) that the NBA is fixed, like professional wrestling. The referee is firmly entrenched in the story, like Dangerous Danny Davis in Wrestlemania III. I expected him to hit Kendrick Perkins over the head with a metal chair as Perkins turned his back and walked away. He might as well have done that, as the effect would have been the same.
- Big night for Adrian Beltre, who is now second in Wins Above Replacement among MLB third basemen (Evan Longoria is edging him by 0.2 WAR).
Good stuff Jimmy. This has been bugging me also. Perhaps he’s got the same nibbling problem that Matsuzaka has…
His curve has not been good (-6.3 value) and without that, he’s not very deceptive, so he’s trying too hard to paint the corners and it’s not working.
Good observation. Luckily, he does have a long track-record of success with multiple pitches, so hopefully he gets straightened out.
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Good observation. Luckily, he does have a long track-record of success with multiple pitches, so hopefully he gets straightened out.
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