Since I started writing here 3 years ago, I’ve been relatively spoiled by covering a perennial World Series contender. So, it’s always odd when the Red Sox go through a period of futility like this one. Usually, it’s just a collective slump, and they eventually snap out of it. I think this is again the case here, but I will say that this is the worst they’ve looked since I arrived here in 2007.
Yes, we should be concerned. When Tampa Bay appears to be proving that 2009 was an aberration and the Yankees are playing like the fantasy team they are on paper, there’s just not a whole lot of wiggle room for the Red Sox. They are now in a bit of a hole, and while there is plenty of time to crawl out of it, it’s not an ideal position when your team plays in the toughest division in baseball.
Now, there are things that have gone wrong for the Sox that will eventually go right. On the other hand, there are some legitimate problems that will not go away very easily. I think it might be worth it to identify each of these things, and perhaps restore some sanity to the fanbase.
Glimmers of hope:
J.D. Drew: Through the first 14 games of the season (9 of which the Red Sox lost), J.D. hit an abysmal .133/.250/.222. He’s heated up recently, hitting .279/.353/.628 since then. Now, I’m an unabashed Drew supporter, but even from an objective point of view, which set of numbers more closely resembles what we’d expect from him given his track record?
Jon Lester: In true Lester fashion, he started out the year poorly but has been dominant in his last two starts, striking out 18 hitters in 12.2 innings pitched.
Josh Beckett: Not really a glimmer hope in the “wow, he’s looked good” sense. It’s more of a “wow, he can’t be this bad” statement. While Beckett’s performances have been a tad more volatile than Lester’s, he looked OK in his most recent start. His velocity isn’t noticeably down this year, and like Lester, he pitched poorly in April of 2009 as well. When all is said and done, he’ll be a decent #2/#3 guy at minimum.
Victor Martinez (offensively): Similar to the Beckett situation. Victor has been one of the most consistent hitters in the AL over the past few years, and is now hitting uncharacteristically poorly. He’s only 31 years old, and he’ll turn it around. When Victor starts hitting, the Red Sox will be a better team.
Infield defense: While Adrian Beltre has had some hiccups in the field, he’s also made a bunch of plays that no one else on the roster could make. Beltre’s bat may come back down to earth a bit, but he’ll continue to flash the leather at 3B. Marco Scutaro has been fine at shortstop (and he’s not a terrible hitter, which is a bonus), and Pedroia/Youkilis are both as advertized with the glove.
Legitimate concerns:
David Ortiz: If a pitcher makes a mistake, Ortiz can still make them pay for it. However, he’s clearly a shell of his former self, and not someone you want to have at the plate against a halfway-decent major league pitcher. While a Mike Lowell platoon might be a more attractive option, the problem is that Ortiz has looked just as bad against right-handers as he has against lefties. At this point, Jeremty Hermida is undoubtedly a better hitter than Ortiz, and the team would be better/more flexible without Ortiz on the roster. (Wow, that sounds harsh. Unfortunately, it’s true).
Center field: When the Sox acquired Mike Cameron, they knew it came with the risks inherent in any athlete in his late-30′s. However, Jacoby Ellsbury’s presence hedged this concern a bit, and made it easier for the team to take a chance on the aging Cameron. Of course, Murphy’s Law went into effect and both players are now hurt, with little prognosis on when either will be healthy. Darnell McDonald has filled in and given the fans something to smile at here and there, but the euphoria will eventually wear off once he regresses to the mean. With Josh Reddick apparently not ready for prime time, this will be an area of weakness until Ellsbury is 100%.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: I was at a wedding on Saturday, and like a true douchebag Bostonian, I spent most of the night following the Red Sox through my cell phone. Things appeared to turn to shit rather quickly for Daisuke after a few promising innings. Pitch FX had his average speed at close to 92 MPH, which is an improvement this time last year (he was below 90 in April of 2009), but it’s not really his velocity we are worried about. While he appears to be healthier, he’ll need to prove once again that he can retire MLB hitters for string of innings without having the roof cave in on him.
The bench: Jason Varitek will eventually end his Mike Piazza impersonation, and when the smoke clears, this bench will be one of the thinnest in the American League. Bill Hall brings nothing to the table, and the other guys on the bench are DHs. In fact, when you really think about it, this team has 5 DHs on the roster, which is a good segway into the next area of concern…
Opposing Baserunners: The team’s inability to deter runners from advancing is unprecedented, and was highlighted by the pick-off gaffe from the late innings yesterday. When pitchers lose focus on the hitter because our catcher has an arm like the drummer from Def Leppard, it’s a problem. My guess is that a move will probably be made here before the trade deadline. It will probably be an awkward move where salaries are eaten and bridges are burnt, but it will be a necessity.