An Update on the AL Cy Young Race

By , 9/22/2010 8:47 am

It’s time once again to turn our attention to what likely is the only race the 2010 Red Sox have any stake in: the battle for the American League Cy Young Award.

I’m not going to go into much detail on last night’s “game” against the Orioles, aside from the fact that Clay Buchholz managed to pitch 6 innings without yielding any earned runs.  Buchholz and his teammate Jon Lester are both in the running for the Cy this year.  Let’s take another peek at the candidates as we head into the final two weeks of the 2010 regular season.   In no particular order:

Player Team W L ERA IP BB SO ERA+ WHIP SO/9
C.C. Sabathia NYY 20 6 3.05 224 69 183 142 1.183 7.4
Clay Buchholz BOS 16 7 2.39 165.2 66 115 183 1.225 6.2
David Price TB 17 6 2.79 193.2 75 172 142 1.193 8
Felix Hernandez SEA 12 11 2.35 233.2 64 222 166 1.074 8.6
Jered Weaver LAA 13 11 2.99 210.2 53 220 136 1.073 9.4
Joakim Soria* KC 1 2 1.61 61.2 16 67 263 1.054 9.8
Jon Lester BOS 18 8 3.06 197 75 212 143 1.173 9.7
Trevor Cahill OAK 17 7 2.81 185.2 60 109 146 1.066 5.3

* Soria, the token reliever in this race, has 40 saves.

Keep in mind that I’m using stats that the members of the Baseball Writers Association generally use, so for now, we’ll table VORP and WAR and the like.

At this point, I’d have to say that Felix Hernandez probably deserves to win the award (barring a terrible performance in his final two starts).  However, given the fact that no starter has ever won the award with fewer than 15 wins (a record that was set last year by Tim Lincecum), Felix is a long shot.

My guess is the actual voting would go something like this:

1) Sabathia
2) Lester
3) Price
4) Hernandez
5) Buchholz

If Jon Lester manages to win his last two starts (@ New York and @ Chicago) and reach the all-important 20 win plateau, his high K total gives him a real shot to win this thing.  As of right now, the award unfortunately belongs to the 400-pound cheeseburger assassin in the Bronx.

Picking Through The 2011 Schedule

By , 9/15/2010 10:24 am

The official MLB 2011 schedule was released yesterday, which means it is time to start thinking about weekend vacations for next summer, whether they be with a significant other or a throng of buddies.

First, let’s start out with the weekend interleague away games (always a hit with traveling Sox fans):

Sox @ Pittsburgh: June 24-26
Sox @ Houston: July 1-3

It seems like the Sox haven’t had the benefit of facing too many cupcakes from the National League recently.  Thankfully, that is going to change in 2011,.  The modern day Pittsburgh Pirates are probably the weakest franchise in American sports, and Houston is on the wrong side of mediocrity.  As far as the stadiums/cities go, I’ve been to Pittsburgh but have never been to Houston.  Despite having an extremely shitty team, the Pirates have one of the nicest stadiums in the game, and Pittsburgh is one of the nicest small cities I’ve ever been too.  If I had to describe the area around PNC Park with one word, I’d use “clean”.  Very walkable, nice restaurants and bars, not a whole lot of squalor.

Houston, from what I’ve heard, is one of those places that is difficult to get around without a car, which I’m personally not a fan of.  I’d still be interested in checking it out, since it’s something like the 4th largest city in America and I assume they have decent BBQ and Mexican restaurants down there (both are a rarity in Boston).  The Sox play there on 4th of July weekend, which makes it a good travel option due to the extra day off.

Other interesting travel options:

Sox @ Detroit: May 27-29

Memorial Day Weekend.  The Detroit Tigers play in my favorite MLB stadium (among the 15 or so I’ve been to).  The city of Detroit itself is an interesting place to see, but for entirely different reasons.  Unless you really know the area, bar-hopping isn’t an option.  The must-see places in Detroit are the ruins, i.e. the massive abandoned plants, factories, and neighborhoods.  If you’re at all into American history, there’s a treasure trove of stuff to see there.

Sox @ New York: September 24-26

A late-September matchup at Yankee Stadium would make for a great trip for obvious reasons (assuming both teams are vying for a playoff spot at that time).  The new stadium is about 10 times nicer than the old place, unless you are one of those codgers who thrive on minimalism and discomfort when watching a ballgame.  The area where the stadium is located (South Bronx) is the anus of the east coast, but cab or subway can take you into Manhattan, where there is a ton of stuff to see and do and many residents are transplants who do not care for the local baseball team.  Check it out.

Sox @ Texas: April 1-3

Opening Day Weekend.  I’d like to see Dallas/Arlington for the same reasons I’d be curious to see Houston.  For what I gather, the Texans enjoy their fair share of food and alcohol.  Sounds like a decent weekend to me.  From an on-field standpoint, the Rangers have a pretty good team these days, and the games themselves would be interesting.

Sox @ Baltimore: September 26-28

Note, this is not a weekend; these games take place on Monday through Wednesday.  I’m listing it here because Camden Yards makes for a great low-cost destination for people in the Boston area, and the weather in Charm City will be nice in late September (avoid the mid-July games in Baltimore, when the humidity will be oppressive).  This is the first time I can remember where the Sox are not scheduled to spend a weekend in Baltimore in the unbalanced schedule era.  Whoever created this schedule deserves to be beaten with a wet burlap sac.

Sox @ Toronto: June 10-12

This is high on my list of places to visit, since I’ve never actually been to Toronto.  Every time my friends organize a trip to our northern neighbor, we end up in Montreal for whatever reason.  I think it’s because we enjoy observing the European influenced art and architecture, and visiting their world-renowned museums.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.

Babality

By , 9/8/2010 6:50 am

9/7/10: Rays 14, Red Sox 5

matsuzaka babality

I would say last night was the proverbial “finishing move” on the Red Sox’ playoff hopes.

Kalish, Lester Use Defibrillator on Dying Season

By , 9/7/2010 9:22 am

9/6/10: Red Sox 12, Rays 5

If the Red Sox were to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays in this series (which will be difficult, considering the pitcher they are facing tonight), they would be 4.5 games back with 22 and 23 games remaining on the Boston and Tampa Bay schedules, respectively.

If the Rays were to go 12-11 in their remaining games after this series, the Red Sox would need to go 16-6 to tie them in the Wild Card race and force a one game playoff.

Notes & Takeaways:

  • Lars Anderson made his major league debut last night, going 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.  Josh Reddick, one of the hottest hitters in AAA, was also called up and made an appearance as a defensive replacement.
  • That’s 3 consecutive 10 strikeout performances from Jon Lester.  He’s now 4 Ks away from the 200 mark, and only 13 behind the league leader, Felix Hernandez.
  • Ryan Kalish now has 2 grand slams this season, which ties the team rookie record set by the immortal Bob Zupcic.  Zupcic did it 18 years ago, and I clearly remember that.  One of those things that makes you feel old.

The Top 25 Red Sox Minor League Prospects (End of Year 2010 Edition)

By , 9/3/2010 9:16 am

As the major league team continues to twitch and convulse like a car-struck deer begging to be put out of its misery, it is becoming increasingly clear that our focus should turn to the future.

Now that the rosters have expanded and the minor league season is winding down, this is as good a time as any to rank our prospects.

My definition of prospect is the generally accepted rookie definition: fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.  Under this criteria, most of the younger guys promoted throughout the year (Kalish, Doubront, Reddick, Bowden) still qualify at this point.  Daniel Nava is only 13 at-bats away from reaching non-rookie status, and he’ll probably hit that milestone next week, so I’ll leave him off the list.

Rank Name Position 2010 Stock Movement
1 Ryan Kalish OF Increase
2 Jose Iglesias SS Sharp Increase
3 Anthony Rizzo 1B Sharp Increase
4 Lars Anderson 1B No Noticable Change
5 Casey Kelly SP Slight Decline
6 Yamaico Navarro SS/3B Increase
7 Anthony Ranaudo SP N/A
8 Josh Reddick OF Sharp Decline
9 Ryan Lavarnway C Sharp Increase
10 Felix Doubront RP ? Increase
11 Oscar Tejeda 2B Sharp Increase
12 Will Middlebrooks 3B Sharp Increase
13 Kolbrin Vitek 2B/3B N/A
14 Che-Hsuan Lin CF Slight Increase
15 Stolmy Pimental SP No Noticable Change
16 Brandon Workman SP N/A
17 Reymond Fuentes OF Slight Increase
18 Chris Balcom-Miller SP N/A
19 Drake Britton SP Sharp Increase
20 Ryan Westmoreland OF Sharp Decline
21 Michael Bowden RP ? Sharp Decline
22 Luis Exposito C Decline
23 Garin Cecchini INF N/A
24 Brandon Jacobs OF Slight Increase
25 Junichi Tazawa SP Sharp Decline

Ryan Kalish came into 2010 as a bit of an afterthought after names like Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, and Josh Reddick, but now he has a foothold in the crowded 2011 outfield picture after hitting .294/.382/.502 between AA and AAA and holding his own in a considerable MLB stint.  His presence may even allow the Sox to consider trade possibilities that would have been unheard of prior to this year.

I’m probably higher on Jose Iglesias than others, but there’s just something I find appealing about the prospect of stellar shortstop defense coupled with decent contact hitting.  Of course, the lack of power and plate discipline is a concern, and while the former will likely never fully develop, the latter could certainly be improved upon with another year of seasoning in the minors.  All in all, 2010 was a decent showing for a guy getting his first taste of professional baseball in America, and it appears as though he’s on track to take over for Marco Scutaro in 2012.

It’s really difficult to compare Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson at this point.  Both seem to have All-Star first baseman potential, but Rizzo has been rising quickly, while Anderson’s stock has been stagnant after he was a tad over-hyped in his first pro season.  Both players are young for their current levels, and both will likely repeat in AA and AAA next season, respectively.  While neither player’s overall numbers are eye-popping, it should be noted that Anderson hit .286./376./486 on the road in AAA, while RIzzo has his .268/.356/.497 after the All-Star break.

Casey Kelly came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the organization, but he has been overmatching a bit in Portland this season after being aggressively promoted (like Anderson and Rizzo).  Right now, his fastball sits at around 91-92 MPH, so he’ll need to add some velocity if he is to reach his full potential.  Still, Kelly has shown excellent command of multiple pitches, and was one of the youngest starting pitchers in his league this season.  He has lots of time to develop.

With Iglesias receiving a lot of hype after his impressive debut, Yamaico Navarro is probably the most underrated prospect in the organization.  It appears that a lot of folks are fogetting that Iglesias isn’t the only decent SS prospect in the system.  Navarro, still only 22-years-old, has been very impressive since being promoted to Pawtucket, and even flashed competence during a brief trial in Boston.

Anthony Ranaudo is a 2010 bonus baby with a very high potential, albeit at a high risk.  He was the best pitcher in college baseball before suffering an elbow injury, and has yet to return to form.  Theo Epstein, as he is prone to do, shelled out top dollar for the high-upside arm in hopes that his potential will one day be realized.

Perhaps no other prospect saw his stock fall further (not including injured guys like Ryan Westmoreland and Junichi Tazawa) than Josh Reddick.  However, Reddick has been hitting very well lately, raking at a .363/.385/.643 clip since the All-Star break.  He still has the potential to be a decent starting outfielder at the Major League level, and his recent play has been very encouraging.

My favorite catcher in the system is the big-hitting Yalie, Ryan Lavarnway.  A lot of folks discount him due to his defensive shortcomings, but honestly, I cannot remember the last time the Red Sox employed the services of a strong throwing defensive catcher on a regular basis (as a starter).  The most recent guy I can think of would be Tony Pena, and I’d rather not see a return to those days.  It’s time to accept that a team can win with an all-bat/no-arm catcher.

The left-handed Felix Doubront (along with his RHP counterpart, Michael Bowden) has found a role on the major league staff by lending his arm to a decimated bullpen, and he has performed somewhat impressively there.  However, I think he still may have a career in the back-end of a major league rotation in his future, barring injury.  His potential is similar to the injured Junichi Tazawa.

All in all, it seems like a fairly deep minor league system, with a lot of new talent added via a strong draft and the Manny Delcarmen trade.  We’ll keep an eye on things as the Arizona Fall League and the winter leagues kick into gear.

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