Letting Major Free Agents Walk: Boston’s Track Record
The decision to let Victor Martinez sign elsewhere for $50 million over 4 years has understandably been a point of contention among fans and media alike. Let’s take a quick look at the track record of the Theo Epstein regime under similar circumstances.
Note: this analysis doesn’t include Billy Wagner, due to the fact that he wanted to return to closing duties in 2010, which pretty much disqualified the Sox from retaining his services.
Red fields indicate years in which the player outperformed his salary, and blue fields indicate years where the player fell short of expectations. Let’s take a look:
- Jason Bay still has three years remaining on his contract, but it certainly looks like the Sox made the right decision here.
- Letting Pedro sign with the Mets was also the right move, all sentimentality aside.
- With Johnny Damon, it looks like things are about neutral, but remember that he was mostly a LF/DH after leaving the Red Sox, and the Sox enjoyed superstar-quality production from both of those positions during much of Damon’s tenure with the Yankees. The Sox knew that Damon’s future was as a left-fielder, and thus there was no reason to open the vault for him.
- Letting Derek Lowe go was a mistake. Starting pitching has never been much of a weakness, but if you replace the likes of Brad Penny / John Smoltz / Wade Miller / insert #5 starter here with Lowe, the Red Sox probably win a few more games in 2005-2009. Here’s a funny thought: if Lowe wasn’t used as a reliever from 1998 through 2001, he probably would have had a legitimate shot at the Hall of Fame. Crazy, but true.
- Last but not least is the biggest mistake of Theo Esptein’s career, letting Orlando Cabera go for relatively small dollars. This one really hurt, not because Orlando is necessarily a great player, but because the SS position turned into a giant sinkhole where Epstein dumped tens of millions of dollars for players who turned out to be massive disappointments (aside from small exceptions – Alex Gonzalez and Marco Scutaro). Sure, there were rumors of some off the field nonsense with Cabrera, but looking at this with 20/20 hindsight, he would have to pull an O.J. Simpson to justify not bringing him back.
I’m somewhat comforted by the fact that Victor Martiez is more similar to Bay and Damon than he is to Lowe and Cabrera, and maybe the front office is more astute at evaluating DH types than they are infielders and pitchers. As always, we’ll have to let this one play out a year or two before we begin to determine whether or not it was a mistake.
I guess my conclusion is: the Mets suck.
Update 2:00 pm – a reader brings up a great point that the value of draft picks should also be considered when discussing Type A and B free agents. It makes the Lowe and Cabrera decisions a bit more palatable, especially since a few of those picks have turned out quite well.
The only problem I have with this is that you don’t mention the draft picks that these FA’s got the Red Sox organization. For example, we drafted Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie with the picks for Orlando Cabrera, and Craig Hansen and Michael Bowden with the picks from Lowe, and Clay Buchholz and Johnaton Egan with the picks from Pedro. And don’t forget Daniel Bard and Kris Johnson for Johnny Damon.
Absolutely a great point. To really gauge these decisions, the draft picks should be considered. TO be honest, I had some time constraints and decided to take the lazy way out.
I read an article that theorizes that mid to late 1st round draft picks typically add value in the range of $7 million to $19 million. Of course, to do this properly, you would need to discount that my the time it would take for a high schooler or college pick to earn that money.
In the cases of Lowe and Cabrera, it makes up for a bit of the shortfall, and it makes the Damon decision a clear win.
Some subscribers just don’t get it, like my nephew who couldn’t visualize the real meaning of this section on your post Epstein regime under similar circumstances.Note: this analysis doesn’t include Billy Wagner, due to the it makes me to feel more knowledgable after understanding it.
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