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By Jimmy, 9/8/2010 6:50 am

9/7/10: Rays 14, Red Sox 5

I would say last night was the proverbial “finishing move” on the Red Sox’ playoff hopes.

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By Jimmy, 9/7/2010 9:22 am

9/6/10: Red Sox 12, Rays 5

If the Red Sox were to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays in this series (which will be difficult, considering the pitcher they are facing tonight), they would be 4.5 games back with 22 and 23 games remaining on the Boston and Tampa Bay schedules, respectively.

If the Rays were to go 12-11 in their remaining games after this series, the Red Sox would need to go 16-6 to tie them in the Wild Card race and force a one game playoff.

Notes & Takeaways:

• Lars Anderson made his major league debut last night, going 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.  Josh Reddick, one of the hottest hitters in AAA, was also called up and made an appearance as a defensive replacement.
• That’s 3 consecutive 10 strikeout performances from Jon Lester.  He’s now 4 Ks away from the 200 mark, and only 13 behind the league leader, Felix Hernandez.
• Ryan Kalish now has 2 grand slams this season, which ties the team rookie record set by the immortal Bob Zupcic.  Zupcic did it 18 years ago, and I clearly remember that.  One of those things that makes you feel old.

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By Jimmy, 9/3/2010 9:16 am

As the major league team continues to twitch and convulse like a car-struck deer begging to be put out of its misery, it is becoming increasingly clear that our focus should turn to the future.

Now that the rosters have expanded and the minor league season is winding down, this is as good a time as any to rank our prospects.

My definition of prospect is the generally accepted rookie definition: fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.  Under this criteria, most of the younger guys promoted throughout the year (Kalish, Doubront, Reddick, Bowden) still qualify at this point.  Daniel Nava is only 13 at-bats away from reaching non-rookie status, and he’ll probably hit that milestone next week, so I’ll leave him off the list.

Ryan Kalish came into 2010 as a bit of an afterthought after names like Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, and Josh Reddick, but now he has a foothold in the crowded 2011 outfield picture after hitting .294/.382/.502 between AA and AAA and holding his own in a considerable MLB stint.  His presence may even allow the Sox to consider trade possibilities that would have been unheard of prior to this year.

I’m probably higher on Jose Iglesias than others, but there’s just something I find appealing about the prospect of stellar shortstop defense coupled with decent contact hitting.  Of course, the lack of power and plate discipline is a concern, and while the former will likely never fully develop, the latter could certainly be improved upon with another year of seasoning in the minors.  All in all, 2010 was a decent showing for a guy getting his first taste of professional baseball in America, and it appears as though he’s on track to take over for Marco Scutaro in 2012.

It’s really difficult to compare Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson at this point.  Both seem to have All-Star first baseman potential, but Rizzo has been rising quickly, while Anderson’s stock has been stagnant after he was a tad over-hyped in his first pro season.  Both players are young for their current levels, and both will likely repeat in AA and AAA next season, respectively.  While neither player’s overall numbers are eye-popping, it should be noted that Anderson hit .286./376./486 on the road in AAA, while RIzzo has his .268/.356/.497 after the All-Star break.

Casey Kelly came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the organization, but he has been overmatching a bit in Portland this season after being aggressively promoted (like Anderson and Rizzo).  Right now, his fastball sits at around 91-92 MPH, so he’ll need to add some velocity if he is to reach his full potential.  Still, Kelly has shown excellent command of multiple pitches, and was one of the youngest starting pitchers in his league this season.  He has lots of time to develop.

With Iglesias receiving a lot of hype after his impressive debut, Yamaico Navarro is probably the most underrated prospect in the organization.  It appears that a lot of folks are fogetting that Iglesias isn’t the only decent SS prospect in the system.  Navarro, still only 22-years-old, has been very impressive since being promoted to Pawtucket, and even flashed competence during a brief trial in Boston.

Anthony Ranaudo is a 2010 bonus baby with a very high potential, albeit at a high risk.  He was the best pitcher in college baseball before suffering an elbow injury, and has yet to return to form.  Theo Epstein, as he is prone to do, shelled out top dollar for the high-upside arm in hopes that his potential will one day be realized.

Perhaps no other prospect saw his stock fall further (not including injured guys like Ryan Westmoreland and Junichi Tazawa) than Josh Reddick.  However, Reddick has been hitting very well lately, raking at a .363/.385/.643 clip since the All-Star break.  He still has the potential to be a decent starting outfielder at the Major League level, and his recent play has been very encouraging.

My favorite catcher in the system is the big-hitting Yalie, Ryan Lavarnway.  A lot of folks discount him due to his defensive shortcomings, but honestly, I cannot remember the last time the Red Sox employed the services of a strong throwing defensive catcher on a regular basis (as a starter).  The most recent guy I can think of would be Tony Pena, and I’d rather not see a return to those days.  It’s time to accept that a team can win with an all-bat/no-arm catcher.

The left-handed Felix Doubront (along with his RHP counterpart, Michael Bowden) has found a role on the major league staff by lending his arm to a decimated bullpen, and he has performed somewhat impressively there.  However, I think he still may have a career in the back-end of a major league rotation in his future, barring injury.  His potential is similar to the injured Junichi Tazawa.

All in all, it seems like a fairly deep minor league system, with a lot of new talent added via a strong draft and the Manny Delcarmen trade.  We’ll keep an eye on things as the Arizona Fall League and the winter leagues kick into gear.

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By Jimmy, 8/31/2010 4:07 pm

Amalie Benjamin reports that the Sox just went and traded the only member of the team who was actually raised in Boston, and thus ends one of the more frustrating tenures of a Red Sox reliever in recent memory.

In return for Manny Delcarmen and an undisclosed amount of cash, the Red Sox receive a 21-year-old A-ball pitcher by the name of Chris Balcom-Miller.

Just from eyeballing Balcom-Miller’s peripheral statistics this season (and not knowing anything about him from a scouting standpoint) I would guess that he might crack the bottom of the organization’s top 20 list.  His K/BB ratio certainly deserves some attention.

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By Jimmy, 8/30/2010 10:13 am

The term “must-win” is one of the more overused and misapplied phrases in modern American sports.  However, last weekend’s series against Tampa Bay was the most appropriate example of “must-win” (with the exception of a team on the brink of mathematical elimination).  Unfortunately, things did not go very well for the Red Sox, and they now find themselves face to face with reality: a 6.5 game deficit with 31 left on the schedule, and the two best players on the roster out of action until next spring.

There will be no post-season in Boston this year.

I’ll have a more appropriate eulogy posted later on.  It’s too difficult to really delve into such a frustrating topic on a Monday morning.

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By Jimmy, 8/25/2010 10:12 am

Yesterday, Johnny Damon made quite a stir when he decided to exercise his no-trade clause and block any potential waiver wire deal that would have sent him to Boston for the stretch run.

So, how would his presence have helped the Red Sox?  The answer: probably not as much as you think.

Damon’s days as a competent center fielder are long behind him, and he is strictly a LF/DH now.  While he is a left-handed batter, he would ironically serve as a left-handed platoon role while here, since David Ortiz and Daniel Nava both crush right-handed pitching and would be occupying DH/LF against RHPs.  Here is how he compares to Darnell McDonald against left-handed pitching:

Johnny has had difficulty hitting for power against lefties, which would haunt the pull-hitter in a place like Fenway Park, where straight-away RF is very deep.  McDonald is also a better defensive player than Damon at this point in their careers.

Damon would be an improvement over David Ortiz as a DH against left-handed pitching, however, the Sox do have the option of playing Jed Lowrie or Jarrod Saltalamacchia at first base while DH’ing Mike Lowell, who can hit left-handers well when he’s healthy.

There is no question that Damon would improve depth on a team that has been incredibly snake-bitten in the injury department.  However, the euphoria over his possible return to the Red Sox was largely based on emotion and nostalgia.

Elitist Rant Warning:

Now that I’ve analyzed the on-field aspect of the Damon issue, it’s time for me to address “Red Sox Nation” (most of it, anyway).

We really need to stop treating professional athletes like they owe us something.  Johnny Damon was raised in Florida, and spent the majority of his pro career in the Kansas City Royals organization.  He came to the Red Sox in 2002 as a free agent in a lucrative deal (at the time) worth over $30 million dollars, ripped away from the small market Moneyball-era Oakland A’s in Dan Duquette’s final coup before his criminally underrated front-office career came to a close.  Before this contract was signed, Damon had absolutely no ties to the Red Sox organization.

While on the Red Sox, Damon provided the franchise and its fans with some of it’s finest moments.  Actually, as I write this, I can say that his grand slam in Game 7 of the ALCS might have been the happiest moment of my life (yes, I am a loser).  He almost single-handedly caused a riot of euphoria on the streets of Boston that night.

In return for his efforts, Damon was treated like a child molester when he returned to Fenway Park in another team’s uniform two years later.  His crime? Accepting a mega-contract valued at $12 million more than the next highest bidder.  $12 million dollars.  The Yankees overpaid a slightly past-his-prime Damon, a tactic they’ve been using somewhat successfully for quite some time now.  Let me be clear.  If you claim that you would turn down an extra 12 million dollars just to pacify a group of people with whom you have no familial connection, you are the fraud.  Not Damon.  You are.

And now, we fast-forward another four years.  Damon is a shell of the player he once was.  Now, his priority is the same as most aging athletes with multiple championship rings; to play in as many games as possible before his career ends.  For the reasons I outlined above, that would not happen in Boston.  So, he vetoed the deal, and now the reactionary idiots are again coming out of the woodwork with chants of “fraud” and “Judas”.   This is an ugly black-eye for Red Sox fandom.  This type of hysteria directly contradicts the “smartest fans in baseball” tag.

Take off the cheerleader’s outfit and try putting yourself in Damon’s shoes.  He has no reason to come here.

Side note:  does the Boston Globe seriously pay this guy?  This drivel sounds like it’s coming from some drunken frat boy outside of the Cask N’ Flagon, puking all of his plaid shorts and Birkenstocks in between Sweet Caroline chorus line chants.  Yes, bloggers are killing the newspaper industry, but this clown is doing it Trojan Horse style.

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By Jimmy, 8/23/2010 9:19 am

8/22/10: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 0

Our spirits are up after yet another Red Sox win due to a stellar effort from Clay Buchholz, whose ERA+ now sits at 194.  For some perspective on that, only two other AL pitchers have finished with a higher single-season ERA+ in the 21st century.  One of them, Zack Greinke, did it last season.  The other did it several times, and you can probably guess who that is.

Notes & Takeaways:

A sobering thought: Baseball Prospectus has the probability of the Red Sox making the postseason at 18.5%.  However, I don’t think this analysis includes the assumption that Dustin Pedroia may not return to the field this season.  Given this, I’d discount that number a bit, maybe to around 10-15%.  Now, try something for me.  Reach into your pocket and dig out a coin.  Try to flip “heads” three times in a row (you only get one chance, do not flip more than three times).  It probably didn’t happen, right?  Not to piss in your corn flakes, but the odds of you successfully pulling that off are roughly the same as the odds of the Red Sox playing baseball in mid October.

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By Jimmy, 8/18/2010 9:39 am

8/17/2010: Red Sox 6, Angels 0

The Red Sox continue to dominate the 2010 iteration of the 21st century rivalry they’ve developed with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  Boston moves to 8-0 against the Angels this season after another terrific effort from Clay Buchholz, who now leads the American League in ERA.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the AL Cy Young race (the top 6 candidates in my opinion, sorted by innings count):

While King Felix should be in the discussion, his W/L record will disqualify him among the out-of-touch dinosaurs in the journalism community who cling to bubble-gum card statistics like an old teddy bear.  Buchholz has the Pedro-esque ERA+, but his relatively low innings total and low K rate will hurt his cause.

Jon Lester has a strong argument to be the leader here with strong numbers across the board, which is amazing given the streak of inconsistency he’s experienced recently.  I’m trying to be as objective as I can, but I think my vote would go in this direction if the season were to end today.

Notes and Takeaways:

• If you see throngs of chain-smoking, mildly attractive 23-year-old women sobbing outside of Fenway Park, it probably has something to do with this news.  Wicked sad.
• I kid around about Ellsbury, but his injury (another broken rib) is legit.  Just a terribly unlucky lost year for a guy who should be entering his prime.  A pet peeve of mine is when fans who have trouble walking up a flight of stairs without gasping for air decide to comment on the mental toughness of professional athletes.
• The starting outfield from here on out, barring a waiver wire deal, should be Nava-Kalish-Drew, with Darnell McDonald available as a defensive replacement.

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By Jimmy, 8/16/2010 6:58 am

8/15/2010: Rangers 7, Red Sox 3

Lost in the static of another frustrating defeat is the fact that Daisuke Matsuzaka once again pitched well, much better than his line score would indicate.  Two of his four earned runs crossed the plate when Michael Young took Manny Delcarmen deep with 2-outs in the 7th inning.

The Sox have blown come opportunities to keep up with/gain ground on the Wild Card leading Tampa Bay Rays, but unfortunately, the team can’t really find much consistency in the bullpen aside from one Daniel Bard.  In the last three Red Sox losses, the bullpen has done this:

Notes and takeaways:

• Some relief on the injury front: All-Star second baseman Dustin Pedroia should return to the lineup tonight.
• On the other side of the rehab spectrum; don’t start penciling Carlos Delgado into the roster just yet.  He left yesterday’s Pawsox game after the third inning with stiffness in his hip (an area he has had multiple surgeries on in the past).  Delgado has hit three singles in 13 at-bats thus far, with 6 Ks and no walks.

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By Jimmy, 8/9/2010 9:19 am

On the heels of the devastating season-ending injury to Kevin Youkilis, the Red Sox have thrown a proverbial Hail Mary by signing 38-year-old Carlos Delgado to a minor league deal.  Delgado has not appeared in the major leagues since May 10th, 2009.  The best case scenario here would be for Delgado to join the team in two weeks and serve as an occasional left-handed replacement for Mike Lowell, who has a .621 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.

A while ago, I wrote a piece on outfielder Jim Edmonds, discussing whether or not he was Hall of Fame worthy.  Ultimately, I decided that he should eventually be enshrined in Cooperstown.  I’ll be conducting the same type of analysis on the newest member of the Red Sox organization.

This one will be a little trickier than the Edmonds analysis, due to Delgado’s position.  There have been a lot of 450-550-HR first baseman/corner outfielder types in MLB over the past 20 years, and not all of them are necessarily Hall of Fame worthy.

I’ll post my analysis and decision when I get a chance.

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By Jimmy, 8/5/2010 4:30 pm

The Globe is reporting that our worst fears have come to fruition; Kevin Youkilis will have season-ending surgery on his injured thumb.  Now without their best hitter, it looks like the Red Sox will likely fall short of the post-season in 2010.

I’ve been following this baseball team closely for 22 years.  I can say, without hesitation, that this is the unluckiest Red Sox team of my lifetime.

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By Jimmy, 8/3/2010 4:16 pm

Word just came across the airwaves that Kevin Youkilis, apparently feeling left out, is going somewhere that many of his 2010 teammates have gone before: the 15-day disabled list.  Mike Lowell has been activated to take his place.

I’m not usually a Chicken Little type, but with the Red Sox now 6.5 games behind a the wild card leader, their two best position players out for the next two weeks, and a 4-game series in Yankee Stadium on deck, this could very well be the killing blow for the team’s playoff hopes.

Update: 98.5 FM is reporting that Youkilis has torn a muscle in his thumb.  It could require surgery, and if it does, Youkilis is done for the year (as are his 24 teammates).

For fuck’s sake.

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By Jimmy, 8/2/2010 9:03 am

Although there weren’t any major moves made by the Red Sox at this year’s trading deadline, the weekend was eventful nonetheless.

When I get a chance, I’ll be touching on a few subjects, including:

• Ryan Kalish
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia
• The new roles of Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront
• Disgruntled Mike Lowell
• Scott Downs
• The team’s playoff odds

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By Jimmy, 7/29/2010 9:27 am

7/28/10: Red Sox 7, Angels 3

The 2010 Red Sox have had some difficulty against unlikely teams: 6 losses to Baltimore, 3 losses to Kansas City, and 3 losses to Oakland.  However, they have had no trouble at all against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season, defeating the Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem in all seven of their contests (with three left to play in September).

Josh Beckett was once again effective, pitching seven strong innings to record his first victory since April 10th.  However, the story of the game was Marco Scutaro’s spine-breaking grand slam off of Fernando Rodney in the 8th inning.

When I look back at my season, there’s not going to be enough wins to really worry about it.

-Josh Beckett, after winning his second game of the year on July 28th.

Notes & Takeaways:

• Minor League Rehab Update #1:  Mike Lowell (remember him?)  continues to take a dump on AAA pitchers, now with 4 home runs and 4 doubles in 22 at bats.  His OPS is 1.727.  The Sox will probably option Jeremy Hermida to Pawtucket to make room for Lowell, as they need all of their “defensive” outfielders now that J.D. Drew is having hamstring issues.
• Minor League Rehab Update #2:   Now, the other side of the spectrum: noticeably missing from yesterday’s minor league box scores was Jacoby Ellsbury.  I can’t seem to find any news on him, and he is still listed on the GCL roster.  Stay tuned…

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By Jimmy, 7/28/2010 9:29 am

7/27/10: Red Sox 4, Angels 2

Despite being booed upon his return to Anaheim, John Lackey was able to keep his chin up (through the use of a complex system of pulleys and cables, most likely) and hold his former team to two runs over 7.1 innings of work.  Lackey gave the Angels a taste of what he provided them over his eight years in Anaheim; a high pitch count with very few mistakes.

That won’t be forgotten, for sure.

-John Lackey, on the boos he received from the Anaheim fans

Don’t worry, John.  The problem with Angels fans is that they simply care too much about baseball.  They really put their heart and soul into the historic Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim franchise, and display their passion for America’s pastime via the use of stuffed primates and large pieces of plastic.  Every night.  Right up until the 6th inning.

Notes & Takeaways:

• We’re now three days away from the trading deadline, and the Blue Jays are asking for either Casey Kelly or Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox (the organization’s best pitching prospect and best infield prospect, respectively) in exchange for reliever Scott Downs.  If the Sox were to acquire Downs, he would be the third reliever on the depth chart and would throw maybe 30 innings.  Not really worth it, in my opinion.  Then again, as a child of the late 80’s /early 90’s, I’m still a little gun shy over Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson.
• Dustin Pedroia, still two weeks from a rehab stint (at least) is having a CT scan on Friday.
• Dan Shaughnessy displays a fundamental lapse in logic when he proclaims that there is no reason for the increase in no-hitters.  It can be attributed to the increase in strikeout rates.  Simply put, it’s easier to prevent hits when you prevent contact, thereby removing the risk of lucky bloops and seeing-eye ground balls.

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By Jimmy, 7/26/2010 9:36 am

There hasn’t been a whole lot to smile about in the past few weeks.  It appears that Hideki Okajima, who has had a very nice run as one of the better left-handed set-up men in the majors these past few years, is hitting the obligatory wall that all athletes in their mid thirties eventually hit.

However, there might be a few small glimmers of hope of the horizon for the 2010 Boston Red Sox, now 5 games back in the wild card race.

Josh Beckett:

Beckett was considered to be 1A or 1B on the Red Sox rotation before the season began, but after a very dissapointing start to the season, he landed on the DL for 2 months.  Here is how he looked before and after his DL stint.

Beckett’s game looked better than before in just about every facet; velocity, command, and pitch selection.  With all 2010 interleague games now in the rear view mirror, Beckett will have no reason to get within 60 feet of the batter’s box and risk another “tweak” (until the playoffs, at least).

Victor Martinez:

Terry Francona mentioned that Martinez might be ready to play in this series against the Anaheim Angels.  This is huge news, considering the fact that the three-headed abomination of Kevin Cash, Dusty Brown, and Gustavo Molina have reached base only 14 times in 70 plate appearances, and have had zero extra base hits or RBI during that span.  The variance in offensive productivity between Martinez and these other guys is mind-blowingly vast.  It’s simply a completely different team without him in the lineup.

Jacoby Ellbury:

Take heart, drunken 25-year old women smoking butts while double-fisting Coors Light on Yawkey Way: you will soon have another reason to let your gravelly voices be heard amongst the other cheering fans.  Your enigmatic heartthrob should return in a week or two.  Jacoby Ellsbury will begin his minor league rehab assignment this week.

Dustin Pedroia

Pedroia still has at least 3 weeks to go before we see him back on the major league roster, but it appears that he is progressing nicely.

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By Jimmy, 7/20/2010 6:40 am

7/19/10: Red Sox 2, Athletics 1

Daisuke Matsuzaka set the bar incredibly low in 2009 after a season plagued with injury, ineffectiveness, and a general communication breakdown between player and  management.  After that disastrous season, I would have been happy with him in 2010 if he was even league average.

Believe it or not, but as of July 21st, Matsuzaka is actually having a decent season, clearly better than average.  He hasn’t allowed 5 or more earned runs in over two months (May 17th in The Toilet was the last time that has happened).  His FIP is currently 3.86, which would put him in the top 20 of AL pitchers had he qualified for the league lead.

As odd as it sounds, this guy is the third best pitcher in the rotation right now.

Notes and Takeaways:

• Matsuzaka credits his recent run of success with a new pre-game routine (namely, getting to the park early).
• The guy the Sox are missing most right now is Victor Martinez.  The difference between him and Kevin Cash in the lineup is a major game-changer, and the team hasn’t really been the same since his departure.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem, like much of a timetable has been determined yet.
• Jed Lowrie has been tearing through the minors during his rehab stint, hitting .367/.447/.600 with 5 extra base hits in 30 at-bats.  This will soon will put a merciful end to the Eric Patterson era, hopefully.

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By Jimmy, 7/19/2010 9:02 am

Tim Wakefield has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 7.2 innings of work, but thankfully, we shouldn’t be needing him in the rotation after tomorrow night.  Of course, they’ll need him to start again once a piano inevitably falls on the head of Jon Lester or John Lackey, but until then, the Red Sox rotation will feature 5 guys who can throw a baseball faster than 75 MPH.

The Projo lays it out for us:

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By Jimmy, 7/14/2010 7:18 am

For the first time in 14 years, the inferior National League has won the MLB All-Star game.  Shockingly, there were questionable decisions made on the American League side.

Paul Konerko: 0 for 2 with a K, in case you were wondering.

It’s time to go back to chasing ice cream carts around the clubhouse, Sport.  Leave the roster construction to the experts.

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By Jimmy, 7/13/2010 3:58 pm

After filling out my personal All-Star rosters for both the AL and the NL and comparing them to the actual rosters, I came up with my list of the top 5 Snubs (players who should be All-Stars, but are not) and Scrubs (players who are All-Stars, but should not) in each league.  Here is what I came up with:

Most of the glaring selections / omissions can be blamed on one of two flaws in the system: 1) the rule requiring leagues to select one player from each franchise (hello, Ty Wigginton), and #2) fan voting (hello, Derek Jeter).

Rios, Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Olivo, and Pagan should all be starting for their respective leagues tonight.

A-Rod is on the team because he leads the league in sexual encounters with aging, sinewy, unattractive blonde women (SEWASUBW), which is one of those hip new sabremetric stats.