#200 Will Have to Wait

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By , 8/9/2011 8:24 am

8/8/11: Red Sox 8, Twins 6

Box Score

While the Sox managed to win their third straight game, the contest was not without a modicum of heartache, as reliever Alfredo Aceves wasn’t able to hold on to Tim Wakefield’s one-run lead in the 8th inning, preventing the 45-year-old from notching his long-sought 200th win.

When Wakefield does win his 200th (and he will have a decent chance against lowly Seattle next weekend), the achievement will be unique in many ways as Chris Jaffe from THT points out in a very informative piece.

Milestones aside, the Red Sox continue to roll.

Key Players:

  • Hero of the Game: David Ortiz (4 for 5, HR, 2B, go-ahead single in 9th, 3 runs, 3 RBI, 67.7% WPA)
  • Goat of the Game: Joe Nathan (.1 inning, 3 hits, 1 run, -48.2% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

  1. Ortiz hits a 2-out single in the 9th inning to put the Red Sox ahead (36.1% WPA).
  2. Aceves gets Michael Cuddyer to ground out with one out in the 8th, holding the tying run at 3rd (17.4% WPA).
  3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit a HR in the 6th to tie the game at 5 a piece (16.6% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“He heard the big elephant coming.”

- David Ortiz, professing his theory as to why Joe Mauer dropped the throw to home plate allowing him to score

Prospect Watch:

  • Low A: Shortstop Xander Bogarts, a guy who some describe as 18-year-old Hanley Ramirez without the star complex, went 4 for 5 with a walk-off home run in the 10th inning last night.  He has a .509 slugging percentage, which is extremely impressive considering his age and position.

Jacoby Brings Justice to Fenway Park

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By , 8/3/2011 8:40 am

8/2/11: Red Sox 3, Indians 2

Box Score

Seeing as though the Cleveland franchise insists on continuing to use their outdated logo, I suppose it’s only fitting that an actual Native American delivered the final blow in last night’s rain-soaked battle.

Key Players:

  • Hero of the Game: Jacoby Ellsbury (1 for 5 with a walk-off single, 21.3% WPA)
  • Goat of the Game: Vinnie Pestano (.1 inning, 3 hits allowed including the walk-off single, -35.0% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

  1. Ellsbury hits a walk-off single in the 9th, Jarrod Saltalamacchia scores from 2nd base, sliding just ahead of the tag  (28.3% WPA)
  2. Kevin Youkilis hits a HR to lead off the 6th inning (16.9% WPA).
  3. David Huff throws a wild pitch in the 2nd, allowing David Ortiz to score (8.3% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“We got Salty in there — that’s the only guy we had,”

- Terry Francona, on his decision to use Saltalamacchia as a pinch runner for Jason Varitek in the 9th.

Francona’s decision is one that will ultimately be forgotten by most fans as soon as tomorrow morning, but it’s a move that paid off big. That was a very close play at the plate with Salty running, and there is no way that Jason Varitek scores there. The decision to use Saltalamacchia, who is only slightly faster than Tek, was key to last night’s victory.

Prospect Watch:

  • AAA: First baseman Lars Anderson was very nearly traded last week for Oakland starter Rich Harden. Instead, the deal fell through and he’s still with Pawtucket, hitting very well of late. He went 2 for 3 with a HR and a BB last night.   
  • High A: Outfielder Bryce Brentz went 2 for 3 with 2 HRs. He now has 24 on the year, between Low A and High A.
  • R: Center fielder Williams Jerez, a high school kid from New York taken in the 2nd round of this year’s draft, went 2 for 5 with 2 stolen bases.

Reports: Buchholz Out for Season with Broken Back

By , 8/1/2011 9:03 am

This is why I generally don’t like hearing other fans (or media personalities) question an athlete’s injury. You never really know when it’s something like this.

For example, a relatively well-known local writer Tweeted this gem last week:

Clay Buchholz will throw off mound Monday despite feeling “stuff” in his back. It’s time for little camper Clay to buck up and pitch thru it

Now, baseball is not this particular writer’s forte, and the view from outsiders tends to be that the purveyors of our national pastime are “soft” in comparison to their mullet-headed ice skating cousins from the north. However, the statement doesn’t look any less idiotic when we are now faced with the news that Clay Buchholz has a stress fracture in his lower back, and his season is likely over.

In related news, the Sox did trade for left-handed starter Erik Bedard.  More on that (along with an updated prospect list) next.

Pedroia for MVP (Again)?

By , 7/28/2011 9:29 am

7/27/11: Red Sox 12, Royals 5

Box Score

I know we all love using arbitrary endpoints when trying to present just how hot a player has been lately, so I’m going to do it here.  Since June 4th (a span of 211 plate appearances), Dustin Pedroia is hitting .382/.474/.657 with 9 HRs, 32 walks, 14 Ks, and 8 steals in 9 attempts to go along with top-flight defense at 2B. That’s not including last night’s 3 for 4 performance.

Long gone are the days where one would need to embellish his on-field contributions with terms like “gritty”, “gamer”, or “blue collar”. He’s a legitimate superstar, the best second baseman in the game. And all the proof you need is right there in the numbers.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle for him in the MVP race is the fact that two teammates (the guy who hits in front of him, and the one who hits behind him) also have a strong case. Speaking of which…

Key Players:

  • Hero of the Game: Jacoby Ellsbury (3 for 4 with a HR, a double, and a walk,  1 SB, 17.4% WPA)
  • Goat of the Game: Bruce Chen (4 innings of excrement, -52.9% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

  1. David Ortiz‘ grand slam in the 4th (11.5% WPA)
  2. Dustin Pedroia’s solo HR in the 1st following Ellsbury’s lead-off HR (9.1% WPA).
  3. Ellsbury’s walk with the bases loaded in the 2nd (8.6% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“It’s a compliment, It’s something you don’t think about right now when you’re playing. But when you’re done, you kind of sit down and say, ‘Well, I did OK.’ ”

- David Ortiz, on reaching 1,000 RBIs with the Sox

Note: the only other players with 1,000 RBIs with the Red Sox are Ted Williams, Jim Rice, Carl Yastrzemski, Bobby Doerr, and Dwight Evans.  Four Hall of Famers, and one guy who really should be.

Prospect Watch:

  • AAA: First baseman Lars Anderson hit a HR off of a likely Hall of Famer on his rehab assignment, Roy Oswalt. Other than that, the Paw Sox really struggled against him.
  • AA: Third baseman Will Middlebrooks went 2 for 4 with a HR. Per multiple Twitter sources last night, he’s one of the few guys that other teams have been asking about as we approach the trade deadline.

Pitching Shmitching… This is the American League

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By , 7/27/2011 9:30 am

7/26/11: Red Sox 13, Royals 9

Box Score

What the hell was that “3 to 1 in 14 innings” nonsense from two nights ago? This is Fenway, not Petco Park god dammit! The final scores of Red Sox games ought to look like college football scores. Now, 13 to 9, that’s the American League I know and love.

Key Players:

  • Hero of the Game: David Ortiz (4 for 5, 3 doubles, 1 walk, 5 RBI, 29.5% WPA)
  • Goat of the Game: Nathan Adcock (0.1 inning, 3 hits, 3 walks, 4 runs, -47.3% WPA)

It’s not easy to cause a ~50% drop in win probability in only one third of an early inning, but Nate Adcock managed it.

Top 3 Plays:

  1. Adcock misplayed a sacrifice bunt, allowing 2 runs to score.  (23.4% WPA) In the last two games, do you see what happens when American League teams bunt? All hell breaks loose.
  2. Dustin Pedroia RBI double in the third (15.7% WPA).
  3. Ortiz’ 2 RBI double in the third (11.3% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“It just wasn’t a good night for us, pitching-wise. We couldn’t command the ball. It just kind of sums it all up when Mitch Maier had the best appearance of the night for us.”

- Royals manager Ned Yost, referring to the scoreless 8th inning pitched by outfielder Mitch Maier

Prospect Watch:

  • AAA: Future MLB C/DH Ryan Lavarnway went 2 for 5 with 2 doubles.  
  • Low A: SS Xander Bogaerts went 3 for 5 with a HR and a double.
  • R: SS Jose Vicinio went 2 for 4 with 2 SBs (14 in 19 attempts on the year).

Redefining the Term “Suicide Squeeze”

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By , 7/26/2011 8:40 am

7/25/11: Royals 3, Red Sox 1 (14 innings)

Box Score

The story of this game was what occurred in the 12th inning, when the Red Sox had victory in their grasp. With Josh Reddick on third base and only 1 out, Marco Scutaro missed a squeeze bunt sign, allowing Reddick to be easily tagged out at home plate.  Two innings later, the game was lost in a battle of bullpen attrition.

Jon Lester was kept on a relatively short leash in his return from the disabled list, throwing only 89 pitches before departing in the 6th inning. Fortunately, his fastball velocity seemed to be right about where it was before his injury (~92.5 MPH). Unfortunately, the Red Sox offense did something that they haven’t been doing much at all this year: they sucked. Royals starter Kyle Davies came into the game with a 7.32 ERA, but was somehow able to stifle the smoking-hot Sox lineup.

Key Players:

  • Hero of the Game: (tie)  Greg Holland (2 scoreless IP, 29.9% WPA), Louis Coleman (2 scoreless IP, 29.9% WPA)
  • Goat of the Game: Marco Scutaro (epic brain fart, -47.3% WPA)

Note: Fangraphs.com actually nails Reddick with the WPA hit from that play, since it was technically a “caught stealing”, but I went ahead and made the proper adjustment.

Top 3 Plays:

  1. The botched squeeze (29.4% WPA)
  2. Carl Crawford K’s, runners on 1st and 3rd, 1 out in the 9th (18.5% WPA)
  3. Yamaico Navarro popped out in foul ground, runners on 1st and 3rd, 1 out in the 13th (18.5% WPA)

There were obviously a bunch of missed chances here.  Scutaro’s mishap is the most visible failure, but a lot of guys came up small last night.

Quote of the Day:

“I fucked it up. After the pitch inside, I took a look and I was like `Oh.’”

- Marco Scutaro

Prospect Watch:

  • AA: OF/DH Chih-Hsien Chiang went 2 for 4 with a HR, his 18th.
  • Low A: Outfielder Brandon Jacobs went 2 for 3 with a walk and 2 SBs.  He now has 25 steals to go along with his .321/.399/.530 line.
  • R: Center fielder Kendrick Perkins hit his first two professional home runs in yesterday’s game.

Sox Put Seattle to Sleep

By , 7/25/2011 8:22 am

7/24/11: Red Sox 12, Mariners 8

Box Score

My apologies again for yet another prolonged absence. Yes, I realize that I’ve been making that same apology quite a bit lately. Without trying to sound too much like the aggressor in a domestic dispute: I promise it won’t happen again.

I’m going to change the WPA section a bit. Instead of listing the top 5 players in total WPA for each game, I’m going to list 1) the player with the highest WPA, 2) the player with the lowest WPA, and 3) the top three plays of the game.

Highlights:

Hero of the Game: Kevin Youkilis (1 for 3, HR, BB, 2 R)
Goat of the Game: Michael Pineda (4.1 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 ER)

Top 3 Plays:
1) Youk’s 2-run HR in the 1st inning (.165 WPA)
2) Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s RBI single in the 1st inning (.131 WPA)
3) Salty throwing out Ichiro in the 5th (.083 WPA)

Quote of the Day:

 ”Days like this, the way guys are playing — it’s definitely what we signed up for.”

- Carl Crawford

Prospect Watch:

AA: OF/DH Chih-Hsien Chiang continues to tear a hole through Eastern League pitching, going 2 for 3 with 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored yesterday. He has a 1.357 OPS in his last 10 games, and 1.043 on the year.
SS A: In the bad news department, Garin Cecchini, a high-ceiling prospect who was having an impressive pro debut in Lowell, was hit by a pitch and suffered a broken wrist.  His 2011 season is most likely done.

Debunking a Common Myth

By , 7/11/2011 8:33 am

Just wanted to briefly point something out.

One complaint I’ve been hearing about recently is: “there are too many All-Stars”. Yes, the roster tends to grow due to injury replacements and pitchers who are unable to participate for scheduling reasons.  As of this moment, there are 84 2011 All-Stars, which admittedly seems like a large number.

However, here’s something to consider: in 1933 (the very first official MLB All-Star game) there were 36 All-Stars.  You can see them here, in case you are curious.  Now, remember, there were only 16 teams back then.  Also, each team had about 16 regular players: 8 hitters, no DH, 4 starters, and 4 regularly-used relievers. So, with a total of around 250-260 regular players, you could say that roughly 14% of those players were All-Stars.

Now, fast forward to today.  We have 30 teams, 14 of which use 9 regular hitters and the other 16 use 8.  There are also 5 rotation spots, and 6 frequently-used relief spots (this varies from team to team, of course). So, we’ll say that there are 585 regularly used roster spots in the modern game.  With 84 All-Stars, this comes out to…you guessed it.  Roughly 14%.

So, when you hear someone complaining about the huge amount of 2011 All-Stars, you can now politely inform them that the “founding fathers” of the All-Star Game would be just fine with the roster sizes.  Now, I’m not sure how they’d feel about the whole home field advantage in the World Series thing, but that’s another story.

Whiskey – Tango – Foxtrot: Another Pitcher Down

By , 7/6/2011 8:55 am

7/6/11: Red Sox 3, Blue Jays 2

Box Score

The Red Sox managed a dramatic win last night, yet this game could be one of the most costly of the season. Jon Lester, the ace of the staff, left the game prematurely after throwing four no-hit innings against the Blue Jays. The diagnosis is a strained latissimus (“lat”), and he will be further evaluated today to determine the extent of the injury.

Early indications are that it shouldn’t be a long term issue, and with the All-Star Break looming next week, Lester would only miss two starts if he were to be placed on the DL. Still, that’s two Alfredo Aceves starts too many, as far as I’m concerned.

Top 5 Performances:

Player WPA Notes
J Lester 20.9% four no-hit innings
M Albers 10.5% 2 scoreless innings of emergency relief
J Drew 7.4% 1 for 3, RBI, BB
D Ortiz 6.3% 1 for 3, 2B, R, BB
F Morales 5.3% perfect 7th

Of course, the key defensive play (not acknowledged by WPA) needs to be mentioned: Darnell McDonald gunning down the potential tying run to win the game, with Jason Varitek masterfully blocking the plate.

Quote of the Day

“We heard the phone ring right after the top of the fourth and kind of had a feeling that it probably wasn’t good.”

- Reliever Matt Albers, on the unexpectedly early bullpen call

Prospect Watch

Note: three minor league affiliates played double-headers yesterday (Pawtucket, Portland, and Lowell).

  • AAA – Catcher Ryan Lavarnway went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles in the nightcap, and is having no trouble adjusting to AAA competition, hitting .338/.418/.613 after 21 games.
  • AAWill Middlebrooks went a combined 7 for 9 in both games, including a home run.  He’s hitting .320/.366/.509 for Portland this year.
  • R – Here’s a new name to keep an eye on: 18-year-old pitcher Raul Alcantara threw 6 no-hit innings, and has only allowed 2 hits in 16 innings in the Gulf Coast League this year. Soxprospects.com notes that his fastball is in the low 90′s, and can get up to 95 MPH.

 

 

2011 Dewey’s House MLB All-Stars

By , 7/5/2011 10:12 am

Now that the actual MLB All-Star rosters have been constructed, it’s time to do what every other baseball fan with spare times does at this point: pedantically critique the selections and offer our own unsolicited opinion on the matter.

Here are my 2011 All-Star rosters:

The names in blue are players I selected, but were left off of the real All-Star teams.  The names in grey are the final omissions from my All-Star squads, names that I had difficulty leaving out.  I did adhere to the mandatory representative rule, so every MLB team has an All-Star amongst my selections.

Now, let’s take a look at the scrubs; the guys who don’t deserve to be going to Phoenix for this year’s Mid-Summer Classic:

American League Scrubs:

1) Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees
No commentary is really needed.  It’s been said thousands of times before.  Jeter is a living, breathing example of a flawed system.  If he really did “respect the game” or whatever, he would gracefully bow out and allow a more deserving player to take in the festivities (there are about 5 other shortstops who fit this description).

2) Jose Valverde, RP, Tigers
In modern-day baseball, as a general rule, closers tend to be overrated and middle-relievers tend to be underrated.  The All-Star game is an annual reminder of this.  Jose Valverde averages 5 walks per 9 innings, and is the third-best reliever on his own team.  I could probably find at least 20 other relief pitchers in the American League who I’d rather call upon in a close situation.

3) Michael Young, DH, Rangers
I guess I just don’t understand the logic of choosing an actual DH to be the “backup DH” on your team, unless that DH happens to be the best hitter available for the spot (Young isn’t). I’d much rather have seen Konerko in this role.

National League Scrubs:

1) Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
The Jeter selection is almost understandable, because he was chosen by idiots.  You don’t blame a dog for shitting in your yard, you just grab a plastic bag and deal with it.  This, however, is ridiculous.  An actual baseball person selected Chipper Jones to be an All-Star, in a year where he is one of the most unproductive third basemen in the league.  Yes, he’s a future Hall of Famer.  Yes, he deserves recognition for his play over the past 18 years.  But, this isn’t the proper forum for that.

2)  Jonny Venters, RP, Braves
Yeah, an ironic choice, given what I wrote about Jose Valverde.  Venters is a middle reliever who was chosen instead of the closer on his own team (Kimbrel) who is having a much more dominant season.  It looks like the selection was based upon ERA, and not much else.

3) Brian Wilson, RP, Giants
He’s a MLB poster boy, and he’ll probably go to a few more All-Star Games before his career is over, but 2011 hasn’t been a standout year for him.  There are a bunch of other more deserving pitchers.

Top 25 Red Sox Prospects (as of 6/28/11)

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By , 6/28/2011 10:01 am

The Red Sox had a day off yesterday after traveling down to lovely Philadelphia, so it’s a good time to update the prospect rankings.

Click here for the new rankings, or the link at the top of the page.

A couple of notes:

  • Several players fell out of the top 25: pitcher Michael Bowden, catcher Dan Butler, and catcher Luis Exposito.
  • Josh Reddick is on the list, however,  he recently passed the rookie threshold and is no longer a “prospect” by definition.  He’ll be off the list when I re-rank these again.

 

MLB Power Rankings Updated

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By , 6/27/2011 10:33 am

It was long overdue, but I’ve finally updated the MLB Power Rankings.  Suffice it to say, the Red Sox are no longer 12th (but they’re not 1st, either.)

Click the link at the top of the page, or click here.

Sox Salvage a Win in Pittsburgh

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6/26/11: Red Sox 4, Pirates 2

Box Score

I’m not exactly sure how it feels to be waterboarded (although, they have been stepping up the security measures at MBTA stations, and I do have a tan, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities).  However, I imagine the sensation is similar to watching the Red Sox lose a string of games to the Padres and Pirates.

That streak was mercifully put to a stop yesterday afternoon, but it wasn’t exactly a clean victory.  Were it not for a slew of errors and miscues on the part of the Pirates, the Red Sox likely would have been swept by the team that began the year in dead last place in my power rankings.

Top 5 Heroes:

Player WPA Notes
J Papelbon 9.5% scoreless 9th, save
D Bard 9.2% perfect 8th
D Ortiz 8.6% pinch hit walk, scored go-ahead run
A Aceves 8.4% perfect 7th
A Miller 6.9% 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, 4 Ks, 1 earned run

It’s another odd day in terms of WPA, as there isn’t one starting position player in the Top 5.  The only hitter there is David Ortiz, who entered the game as a pinch hitter for Andrew Miller.  It was an ugly game, which is fitting, because the prior 4 games were also hideous.  There’s something about interleague play during the regular season.  It’s just…awkward.

Buzz Kill:

J.D. Drew was hurt again, after fouling a pitch off of his face in batting practice.  Darnell McDonald entered the game and proceeded to go 0 for 4, and he’s now hitting .109/.163/.174.  Carl Crawford can’t get healthy soon enough.

Quote of the Day:

“That’s OK, I hate him, too,”

- Jonathan Papelbon, busting the balls of a young reporter who informed him that Philadelphia fans hate Terry Francona

Prospect Watch:

  • AAAJose Iglesias, whose name hasn’t appeared in this section as much as I would have expected this year, went 3 for 4 with a double.  Catcher Ryan Lavarnway (DH’ing in this game) went 2 for 4 and is now hitting .356/.420/.667 for Pawtucket.
  • Low A – Outfielder Brandon Jacobs went 2 for 5 with a HR, and first baseman Miles Head went 2 for 5 with two doubles. They are hitting .319/.392/.532 and .338/.409/.612, respectively.

Other Notes:

  • It was a bittersweet victory; if the Sox had lost, I was planning to create this awesome Photoshop where a ship full of pirates (real ones) were making Red Sox players walk the plank.  The Sox probably won’t play the Pirates for another 3 years at least, so this idea will sadly be archived away.
  • Apparently, I’m not supposed to hit the space bar twice after each sentence?  Well, I can’t stop doing it now.  In a related note, do you know that my high school was once disaccredited?  I was initially shocked when I heard that, but in retrospect, they somehow managed to fuck up Typing 101.  Maybe the authorities knew what they were doing in this particular case.

 

Clergy Abuse: Sox Pummel Padres

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By , 6/21/2011 8:40 am

6/20/11: Red Sox 14, Brewers 5

Box Score

It was a triumphant return to the Major Leagues for former top prospect Andrew Miller, as the left-hander pitched 5.2 solid innings in last night’s rout, striking out 6 and walking 3.  Miller, a guy whose career was previously derailed by control problems, threw 58 strikes in 89 pitches.  All of the damage done against him came on one swing: a 3-run homer from Orlando Hudson.

It’s apparent that Miller has the stuff of a major leaguer; his fastball sat at around 93 MPH and touched 96, while both his slider and his changeup yielding swinging strikes form the San Diego hitters.  Reportedly, he has corrected a mechanics flaw and as a result, has improved command of his pitches.  Only time will tell if this is true, but as of right now, the Miller acquisition is looking like a solid move.

Top 5 Heroes:

Player WPA Notes
A Gonzalez 21.3% 3 for 5 with a double, 3 RBI, 2 run
D Ortiz 18.7% 2 for 4 with a double and a walk, 2 RBI, 1 run
M Albers 14.5% 1.1 scoreless innings, awarded the win
J Varitek 6.5% 1 for 4, 1 RBI, 1 run
J Reddick 4.3% a pinch-hit 2-run single, and a walk

Buzz Kill:

While Darnell McDonald was a pleasant surprise during the injury-plagued 2010 season, he’s looked utterly lost thus far in 2011. After going 0 for 3 last night, he’s hitting .114/.184/.200 with 12 strikeouts in 38 plate appearances.  There’s no sense in letting him start while Carl Crawford is out.  Might as well stick Josh Reddick out there and let him get some playing time in. 

Quote of the Day:

“Is he from Rhode Island?”

- Someone I know, when I explained to her that the San Diego first baseman’s name is “Anthony Rizzo”.

Prospect Watch:

  • R – In the Gulf Coast League opener, shortstop Jose Vinicio went 2 for 4 with a triple and 2 runs scored.

 

Sox Lead a Parade Around the Bases

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By , 6/20/2011 8:38 am

6/19/11: Red Sox 12, Brewers 3

Box Score

The Ageless Wonder once again turned in a stunning performance, allowing only 5 base runners over the course of 8 strong innings.  Unlike most Tim Wakefield starts of late, he was treated with plenty of run support against Milwaukee, as 8 of their 14 hits were for extra bases.

Top 5 Heroes:

Player WPA Notes
J Ellsbury 13.2% 2 for 5 with a double, 2 RBI, 1 run
T Wakefield 10.8% 8 strong innings
K Youkilis 10.6% 3-run HR in the 1st inning
D Pedroia 7.8% 3 for 4 with a HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs
A Gonzalez 7.6% 2 for 5 with a triple (!), 2 RBI, 2 runs

Note the abnormally low WPAs (the entire team added up to around 50%).  You’ll see this when the game gets out of hand early, as it did yesterday afternoon.  Once the bottom of the first inning had ended as the score was 6-0, the probability of the Red Sox winning was over 90%.  Everything else that occurred in the game, such as Pedroia’s 6th inning HR, wouldn’t have much of an impact on win probability.

This is one of the strengths of WPA, as a metric.  It distinguishes the important plays from the ones that occur in garbage time.

Buzz Kill:

Clay Buchholz (back) and Carl Crawford (hamstring) are both on the disabled list, and both hope to return during the series in their home state, at Houston.  I talked about Buchholz, but the Crawford situation is just as troubling, if not more.  Speed is, of course, a big part of Crawford’s game.  If hamstring problems become chronic for him as he ages,   the Red Sox will be stuck with a very expensive, very mediocre outfielder.

Quote of the Day:

“It had good movement on it. Some of them went in to right-handers, some of them went in to left-handers. It did what good knuckleballs do. It was frustrating.”

- Milwaukee 1B Prince Fielder, on the knuckleball

By the way, if you’re wondering whether or not Wakefield ever faced Prince’s dad, Cecil Fielder…he did.  30 times.  Like father, like son; Cecil hit .111/.200/.148 against Wakefield.

Prospect Watch:

  • SS A – The short-season Lowell Spinners started their 2011 campaign over the weekend, and there are a couple of interesting players up in the Cradle of the Industrial Revolution.  The one that stands out, however, is third baseman Garin Cecchini, who is regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in the system.  In his debut on Friday, he went 2 for 4 with a double and a SB.
  • R – The Gulf Coast League Red Sox begin play today.  This is where you’ll see a few of the high school draftees and the prospects who graduated from the Dominican Summer League.  Two names jump of the page right now: shortstop Jose Vinicio and outfielder Kendrick Perkins.

6/16/11: Red Sox 4, Rays 2

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By , 6/17/2011 8:36 am

Buchholz Wins, But Gets Hurt

Box Score

In isolation, last night’s result was beautiful; the Red Sox beat Tampa Bay ace David Price to finish their road trip with an 8-1 record.  However, Clay Buchholz was once again curtailed by lower-back pains, a chronic issue that has been hampering him since last season.

It’s certainly a red flag given how frail this rotation currently is, with the exception of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.  With a ground ball rate of 51% (almost exactly what it was last season) and a K-rate that is slightly improved from last season, Buchholz has been displaying the stuff and command that put him in contention for the Cy Young Award in 2010.  It would hurt to have that type of run prevention replaced by the likes of Alfredo Aceves for any prolonged period of time.

Top 5 Heroes

Player WPA Notes
D Bard 18.2% 1.1 perfect innings, only 15 pitches thrown
C Buchholz 18.1% 5 innings, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K
A Gonzalez 17.9% 2 for 3, 2 BB, coffin nail HR in 9th
J Papelbon 8.0% scoreless 9th for the save (not without drama)
D Ortiz 7.3% 0 for 2, 2 BB, RBI

Buzz Kill

Clay’s back is the obvious one, but he wasn’t the only one forced out of the game due to injuries.  Jed Lowrie, whose recent struggles have been documented here, was a late scratch due to the shoulder that’s been bothering him since May.  It was also kind of a bummer to see Carl Crawford go 1 for 10 in his return to The Trop.

Quote of the Day

“It was a good road trip. We started the road trip in second place and finished it in first place. Any time you can do that, that’s a good thing.”

- Adrian Gonzalez

Prospect Watch

  • High A – Pitcher Junichi Tazawa threw 3 rehab innings, giving up 2 hits and striking out 2.  Also, Kolbrin Vitek, who has cooled down considerably since his torrid April, went 2 for 5 with a double.
  • Low A – Shortstop Xander Bogaerts again had a good day for himself, going 2 for 4 with a double.  Also, 21-year-old lefty Manny Rivera pitched 6 scoreless innings, and now has 74 Ks in 69.2 innings.

 

6/15/11: Red Sox 3, Rays 0

By , 6/16/2011 9:23 am

The Gem That No One Witnessed

Box Score

It’s completely understandable and justifiable that the Red Sox game was pushed to the back burner last night, but it’s a shame that Josh Beckett’s outstanding performance went largely unnoticed.  He allowed only one baserunner, and that was on a weak dribbler down the third base line by Rays shortstop Reid Brignac.  The word “dominant” doesn’t begin to describe his mastery of the Tampa Bay lineup.

It took Beckett only 96 pitches to shut out the Rays.  Pete Abraham described his performance as one of the best games he’s ever seen pitched.

Top 5 Heroes

Player WPA Notes
J Beckett 46.6% 1-hit shutout
K Youkilis 22.3% 3-run homer in 7th (only RBIs in game)
D Pedroia 7.3% 2 for 4, run scored
C Crawford -2.0% 1 for 3
J Varitek -2.1% 0 for 3, walk

Notice the negative WPA from the bottom two guys on this list?  That’s a first for me; never before in a win have I seen any of the top five performers actually detracting from the game (at least, not since I’ve been doing this). It really underscores how crucial Beckett’s performance was.  The Red Sox offense wasn’t able to do much against Rays starter Jeremy Hellickson, aside from the clutch 3-run home run from Kevin Youkilis.

Buzz Kill

Jed Lowrie continues to plummet from the lofty heights he reached early in the season.  After another 0 for 3 performance, he’s down to .220/.287/.315 since May 1st.

Quote of the Day

“It’s a bloodbath”

- Dustin Pedroia, watching the Boston Bruins score their third goal during their Stanley Cup clinching victory

Prospect Watch

  • Low A – It wasn’t really an eventful day in the minor leagues, but an interesting prospect did go 2 for 5 with 2 runs scored for the Greenville Drive.  Xander Bogaerts, a tall, lanky shortstop signed as an international free agent out of Aruba, is getting his first taste of American pro ball after he excelled in the Dominican Summer League last year.

Side Note:

Ever since I’ve been old enough to form coherent thoughts, I’ve been a compulsive Red Sox fan.  This fandom has spanned some good times, but also some very bad times.  Over this 25-year period, I’ve seen the fan base increase exponentially, and the increase includes lots of people who aren’t quite as knowledgeable about the game as I am (naturally, a new fan will not be quite as up-to-speed on the sport as an old one).

Although I’m sometimes annoyed by the difficulty in acquiring Red Sox tickets these days due to increased demand, I’ve always embraced new fans.  Personally, I could never understand the old-timers who were xenophobic towards people who just began to notice the experience that is Red Sox Baseball.  You have to look at the big picture.  The “Pink Hats” spend money, they increase ratings, they provide an incentive for ownership to spend that extra million or two on the team.  Why would that ever be a bad thing, from a fan’s perspective?

The reason I say that is this: I’m a Bruins Pink Hat.  During the playoffs, I would get to the bar extra early just to get a stool for the game, yet I couldn’t pronounce “Paille”.  Until a few weeks ago, I did not know the name of the guy who siang the National Anthem at the Garden.  The bottom line is: I don’t know shit about the Bruins, and I didn’t give a shit about the Bruins until maybe 14 months ago.  All I know is, I’ve enjoyed the hell out of watching them recently.

So, yes, I’ll probably show more interest to the team now that they’ve encountered success.  As a follower of the Golden Rule, I hope I won’t be looked at with too much disdain.

Congrats to those of you who have been a fan for years.  I went through a similar experience 7 years ago, and I’m happy that the ecstasy of that type of moment can be shared with others.

     

    6/14/11: Rays 4, Red Sox 0

    By , 6/15/2011 8:25 am

    Surging Sox Stopped in Tampa

    Box Score

    In the words of Pat Summerall: “And we’re back!”.

    Top 5 Goats

    Player WPA Notes
    K Youkilis -25.1% 0 for 4, grounded into 2 DPs
    D Pedroia -13.9% 0 for 4, 3 left on base
    C Crawford -11.1% 0 for 3, 3 left on base
    J Saltalamacchia -4.7% 0 for 3, 2 Ks
    T Hottovy -4.4% faced 2 batters, both scored

    Silver Lining

    Tim Wakefield again had a decent start, with a line that could only be described as “Wakefieldesque”: 7 innings, 5 walks, 2 Ks, 1 earned run.  The story of the night: the Sox ran into a very good pitcher; Jamie Shields is now 4th in the American League in ERA.

    Quote of the Day

    “You know, it was cool. There were a few cheers, a few boos, I guess it was mixed emotions out there.”

    - Carl Crawford, on his first return to Tropicana Field

    What kind of Rays fan would boo a guy who (arguably) is the best player in the history of their franchise? It’s at least reassuring to know that the idiot gene is not isolated to Boston.

    Prospect Watch

    • AAA – The big story on the farm is Andrew Miller, who struck out 10 hitters with only 1 walk in 5.1 innings.  Opposing batters are hitting only .181 against him this year, and he likely will be called up to join the rotation in Boston for his next start.  There are contractual reasons that factor into the decision.  More on that later.
    • Low A – First baseman Miles Head went 4 for 5 with a double, and is now hitting .338/.407/.596.

    Other Notes

    • On Andrew Miller: he has a clause in his contract that allows him to become a free agent if he if not promoted today.  Obviously, with his stellar AAA numbers, there would be lots of teams interested in adding him to their major league roster if Boston were to let him go.  While nothing is decided yet, it looks like he’ll be in the Red Sox rotation next week.
    • Given the above news, it appears that Tim Wakefield will find himself back in the bullpen for the time being (assuming Terry Francona actually follows through with this plan).

     

    Mental Jettison, 6/14/11

    By , 6/14/2011 8:43 am

    Just a few quick thoughts as I try to get back on my regular schedule after a few grueling weeks.  Yes; recaps, previews, and rankings will continue here posthaste.

    • HBO’s Game of Thrones is currently the best show on television, and last Sunday’s episode left me unable to sleep.  With all the different versions of “NCIS”, “Top Chef”, and “30 Yuppies Fighting Over an Expensive Prostitute” (or whatever that show is actually called), it’s great to once again have something worth using the DVR space on.
    • If the NBA Finals had gone a different way, I probably would have lost 100% of my interest in the league.  Lebron James is simply too despicable.  This guy actually made statements after the game to the effect of “It’s God’s plan for me to eventually win” and “My critics are just bitter because they’re poor and miserable”, and such.  Sure, I am poor and miserable, but correlation doesn’t equal causation, Bron!
    • Before the 2010 season, I predicted a bust-out All Star campaign from Jacoby Ellsbury that included a modest increase in power to go along with his high batting average and dominance of the basepaths.  Of course, he had his collision with Adrian Beltre and that never happened.  However, I feel somewhat vindicated considering his torrid play this season.  Right now, he is one of the best lead-off hitters in the game.
    • Beer recommendation: this is something that I imagine would be very difficult to get outside of the Boston area, but there is a local craft brewery called “Pretty Things” that has a few outstanding selections.  Yeah, the name is a little dainty and they’ll likely serve it to you in a tulip glass, but once you swallow your pride and have a sip or two, you’ll thank me.
    • While it seems like just about everyone on the Red Sox roster is on fire, the one guy who was hitting back in April has cooled down considerably.  Jed Lowrie is hitting .226/.293/.323  since May 1st.
    • J.D. Drew has also been quiet this year, but sadly, I think it’s a function of him getting old.  Drew, of course, was always injury prone, but when you hit your mid thirties, the tightness and the soreness that once would go away in a 24 hour span now lingers for quite a bit longer.  It’s not a fun thing to encounter.
    • Catching prospect Ryan Lavarnway, a guy who has shown an improvement in his defense this year, has been promoted to Pawtucket.  He is certainly someone to keep an eye on.
    • The one thing that will get me out of my seat quickly: seeing Sarah McLachlan appear on the television.  As soon as her Canadian face pops up on my screen, a frantic scramble for the remote ensues.  I swear, I’m like Vince Wilfork going after a loose ball; my lightning-quick hands and feet propelled by immense fury and hunger as I grab that piece of plastic and push either the “Channel Up” or “Channel Down” button (it doesn’t matter which).  I have nothing against Sarah or her music, but I just don’t feel like seeing any more footage of a one-eyed puppy, you know?
    • A re-worked prospect list will be published shortly, however, I’m not going to include any of the draftees until they actually sign.

    Red Sox Pick #4 (40 overall): Jackie Bradley – Outfielder – University of South Carolina

    By , 6/6/2011 10:41 pm

    So, it looks like neither Bell nor Norris will be happening, as the Sox took a college outfielder with their final pick in Day One of the draft.  Jackie Bradley was one of the best outfielders in college baseball as a sophomore last season before hurting his wrist and having a mediocre junior year.  This sort of follows the strategy the Sox employed when drafting both Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz in 2010; taking polished college players whose stock dropped due to a recent injury.

    He’s a quick, athletic left-handed hitting outfielder.  The Sox have gravitated towards this type of player several times in recent drafts, and it’s worked out fairly well for them.

    On that note…good night.  More during Day Two tomorrow afternoon.

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