Comments Off

By Jeff, 1/12/2005 8:36 pm

In the comments section, there has been some spirited debate lately, and a Reds fan, of all teams, posted something pretty salient. Enough so, that here it is:

In the first post of the section, from Jon: I also find it interesting that Yankee fans seem distressed that they didn’t sign Beltran.

RobinRed’s response:
Well, I have said this already on other blogs but:

2004 VORP:

Beltran 74
Williams 31

Beltran was worth 30.7 in 309 PA with KC–Williams was worth that in 651 PA.

Beltran is probably not a truly great hitter, but he:

–has a broad base of skills so is likely to age well
–is durable
–is in his prime
–plays a position the Yankees need filled
–is one of the greatest percentage base-stealers in baseball history

I think he would be worth 4-5 games to the Yankees, would make them tougher in the 2005 post-season, and would help them in the 2006-2011 window as well.

Not getting him was a major mistake by Steinbrenner and good news for Boston fans.

BIll James, writing about the late 80s Yankees, said the”early (and largely successful) Steinbrenner” strategy with FAs was to get the best guy available, regardless of need–like getting Gossage after Sparky Lyle had just won the Cy Young. Overpaying and over-committing to mediocre or inconsistent players based on perceived need is the way to make big mistakes on the market. I am not as convinced as some are the Wright and Pavano signings will not work out, since both guys are talented, but the Yankees are not loading the odds in their favor with them. The Red Sox, by contrast, have a slightly better and cheaper bet in Clement (as opposed to Pavano) and a much cheaper and somewhat better bet in Miller (as opposed to Wright).

I personally don’t like using VORP for the whole stat ownership thing I talked about in a previous post, but I agree with red’s central thought.

Good, great stuff.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 1/10/2005 1:28 pm

Both have conspired against me to insure that I never really get any work done.

Case in point: A discussion topic is thrown out there, and rather than do something like double check finances so we know money isn’t missing, I create a trending chart.

For those of you who don’t know, a trending chart is basically taking a value (could be anything from K’s to weight), and expresses it over a period of time, using a line graph. I’m a big fan of them as they pertain to baseball. Baseball stats are just a form of accounting. If you can measure the accounting with any reliability, you can predict the future. It’s fun really, especially if you call it your gut calling. “My gut tells me Bellhorn will put up an OBP of about 370 this year…” I made 10 bucks on that call.

I digress. Trending charts are useful in player to player comparisons. If you have two similar players, say Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace, and they have similar charts, you can make up “rules” along the lines of career length for high-OB%, ave-slug, good D first basemen.

Usually, with these charts, the value I use is actually from Clay Davenport. Normally, I hate using numbers I don’t figure out myself, simply because I like the accountability that goes along with them. However, Davenport does two things that I haven’t or are unable to do. The first is adjust his numbers for all time (park and era). The second is he has codified defensive numbers.

The best way to see these numbers is to go to Baseball Prospectus’s web site (BPro), enter a player into the search bar, and click on DT cards.

To find the numbers I use, scroll down to Advanced Batting Statistics, look to the right where it says “Adjusted for all time” and use BRAR (batting runs above replacement) and FRAR (fielding runs above replacement). Add those two together and you get a raw run value. I like that because it puts all players on an even ground in which to judge. I use PRAR (figure it out) for pitching.

Why is this all relevant? Well I took two players that I wanted to compare over 4 years. Player A was a 27 year old rookie who is currently playing. Player B is a Hall of Famer. Here is their trending chart for their Age 27 to Age 30 seasons:

Now the astute among you might know who these two are. I won’t reveal them yet.

Since this takes park/era/defensive prowess into account, you would have to assume that player B would be far and away the better hitter, and the more likely to have the longer career.

Why?

Because through his prime, B played at a higher level. They right now are being judged using the same (adjusted) criteria.

In other words, Ichiro isn’t nearly the player Wade Boggs was.

This special type of accounting that people who love baseball use is an odd thing. The exact same number can be used to lionize and demonize the same player. Not only that, the numbers are conveniently ignored with respect to some factors, such as Boggs being called a “guy who only walks and singles” when he had legit power, something Ichiro hasn’t shown in Major League Baseball yet.

Sometimes a picture is better than words.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 12/15/2004 11:38 am

The Boston Globe just threw this up on their web site

Renteria to Sign with Boston

I think they overpaid for him, but facing the facts of the game (they have the extra money with Pedro leaving, and Renteria is the NL’s best shortstop and one of the 3 best in the game), it will probably be worth it.

Plus, he as been to two World Series, and has one RINGZZZZZ. Or something.

I’m a fan of ERent, simply because of the most bizarre batting stance in baseball this side of Tony Batista, that he looks like he’s 14 years old, and he’s the only guy that I can find in baseball history to end two World Series.

Welcome to Boston, Edgar.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 11/1/2004 10:30 am

So that was fun, no?

Today I’m sitting at my computer after having called in sick to work (the flu got me). I’m bored and fevery…I figured what better time to spend some time with my neglected mistress, The House That Dewey Built.

This year was really a long strange trip. Between my self actually becoming gainfully employed, and two teams I root for clinching their sport’s championships this year, I really am at a loss.

One thing I have done is crunched some of those tasty numbers that annoy the purists so. I’ll be ready to toss those up on the side of the site after the move. Interesting tidbits? There was no American League hitter in the top 10 MLB hitters in 2004, and Keith Foulke was the 3rd best reliever in baseball. Curt Schilling was the 4th best starter, and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best hitters in baseball were the now-dispatched St. Louis Cardinals Heart of the Order.

Now about the move….now that the World Series is over and my seasonal insanity has ebbed, I’m looking into painless ways to move Dewey’s House from the hateful Blogsphere. More on that in the upcoming weeks. This is also why I haven’t been writing much…I don’t want to lose it in a move.

Good news is, Sully is coming with me on the move, and my goal is to create the best, most organized sidebar in the blog world. The bad news is we might lose everything in terms of archives and comments. Que Sera.

Soon…we’re going metrosexual.

Comments Off

By Jeff,

This is fun.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 10/19/2004 2:48 am

I am really shitting on my own parade here, but I don’t see how the Red Sox can win the next two games.

I am only watching, and I’m exhusted beyond all belief. I mean, these last two games killed me. Absolutely killed me.

Of course now that its time to go back to New York, I have to say that although I don’t think the Red Sox will win this series, I doubt they will go quitely into that good night.

What a fantastic last two games.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 10/11/2004 9:30 pm

Isn’t this kinda what we’ve been waiting for?

Tomorrow starts the third ever American League Championship Series between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. The New Yorkers have taken the last two 4-1 in 1999, and again last year. I would tell you the game count, but I blacked out sometime in October and didn’t really come to until mid-November.

I do know it had something to do with Aaron Boone, as Fox showed the celebration 3,093 times already this season, including during a Mets/Phillies game.

There is no Aaron Boone this year, replaced by some fellow who used to play with Washington Senators II. Also gone from this drama is Todd Walker, Nomar Garciaparra, John Burkett, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and David Wells. For you humor buffs out there, Don Zimmer will also be absent, unfortunately.

This year, for the first time since 1999, the Red Sox won the season series, 11-8. They swept a plucky Angels team (plucky is a nice way to say the team won despite not having a whole lot of talent. The Twins were also plucky), and are coming into the series scoring 9, 8, and 8 runs in their three games. Sox have a healthy amount of momentum.

The Yankees also have momentum, beating a plucky Twins team (see above) three straight after losing to Minnesota Wunderkind Johan Santana (of course the Twins were Washington Sentors I. I need to think of a way to get the Expos mentioned in this post). The Yankees had a little bit less success scoring runs, posting tallies of 0, 7, 8, and 6 runs.

In terms of tactical acumen, the Red Sox haven’t successfully sacrificed yet, and are 3/3 in stolen base attempts (all Johnny Damon), and has issued one intentional walk (to Vlad Guerrero). The Yankees have bunted twice, been successful in four of six stolen base tries. They haven’t been sufficiently frightened by a hitter to put him on the bases yet.

Projected lineups…
Johnny Damon 467/500/533
Mark Bellhorn 091/375/091
Manny Ramirez 385/375/769
David Ortiz 545/688/1000
Trot Nixon 250/400/250
Kevin Millar 300/364/600
Jason Varitek 167/333/417
Orlando Cabrera 154/267/231
Bill Mueller 333/385/333

Derek Jeter 316/350/526
Alex Rodriguez 421/476/737
Gary Sheffield 222/333/444
Hideki Matsui 412/476/647
Bernie Williams 278/316/500
Jorge Posada 222/222/222
Ruben Sierra 167/286/417
John Olerud 214/313/357
Miguel Cairo 214/313/286

AS it looks right now, the pitching matchups look to be:
Schilling vs. Mussina
Martinez vs. Lieber
Arroyo vs. Brown
Wakefield vs. Somebody
Schilling vs. Mussina
Martinez vs. Lieber
Arroyo vs. Brown

As for my take:
I have a bias for the Red Sox. I try to look past that bias when I look at players and teams, simply because there is no real point to reading someone just rant and rave about how I love my Sawx.

That said, the Red Sox have been really running at full speed since the second week in August. The only time they really slipped up is that last trip to the Bronx. I say it doesn’t matter. The Red Sox have the better offense, and the better starting pitching. They just beat up on a team that has a very good bullpen.

This year, I say I don’t black out in October. Sox take the Yankees in 6.

Let’s get it started…

Comments Off

By Jeff, 9/22/2004 5:22 pm

For the second straight year, I will be sharing my opinion of the award winners for the two leagues before the end of the season. The same argument still stands…I want to judge people on how they do during the regular season, not the playoffs (though there are some out there that think the 19 playoff games tell more than the 162 seasonal games). Today, I begin with the managers of the year.

National League Manager of the Year

3. Jim Tracy (LAD) 86-64

As you will read ahead, I picked all the division winners. I think it should be noted that the concensaus pick for the winner of each division is not represented on this list. Tracy righted a ship with no offense. DePodesta gave him better tools this year, but Tracy has utilized them well enough not to be the worst offense in baseball again.

2. Tony LaRussa (STL) 98-52

Was supposed to be an also ran, a small daliance that kept the Astros and Cubs from mingling with the Milwaukees of the Central. All he did was guide his team to the best record in baseball. As a note, I still think his career is overrated, but he’s done an excellent job this year.

1. Bobby Cox (ATL) 89-62

This was supposed to be the year the reign ended…for the 4th year in a row. The Schuerholz/Cox/Mazzone triumvrate might be the most successful in baseball history at taking questionable pitchers and making them useful again. If only Cox didn’t handcuff himself in the playoffs by carrying unnessecary parts on his bench.

American League Manager of the Year

3. Ron Gardenhire (MIN) 88-63

The Twins have clinched their third straight division title, despite having a team that isn’t as talented as the White Sox, who now sit 12.5 games out. His candidacy is being supported by Johan Santana, who is having an exceptional season. How Santana goes in the playoffs is how the Twins go.

2. Eric Wedge (CLE) 73-78

Wedge has the Indians being frisky a whole year a head of schedule. Next year, they will be an official pain in the ass, and year after, I bet they win the Central.

1. Buck Showalter (TEX) 83-67

Who expected this? They traded their best player, Alex Rodriguez, for a player that has hit worse than Mark Bellhorn this year. If you said you believed, you’re a lier.

Also recieving consideration: Felipe Alou, Terry Francona, Phil Garner, Mike Sciosca.

Without any comments, here are my worst managers of the year:
NL
1. Al Pederique
2. Larry Bowa
3. Frank Robinson

AL
1. Bob Melvin
2. Ozzie Guillen
3. Tony Pena

Comments Off

By Jeff, 9/20/2004 2:37 pm

This is a good thing…

As some of you have noticed, my writing has become almost non-existant this summer. The reasoning is that I started a new job which has really sapped my internet posting time. That is coupled with an old back injury, and a hateful wood chair at my home computer, and the result is Sully’s House.

Not that I mind, I think Sully has done a great job, and judging by your e-mails, you agree with me.

Anyway, this is the crux of my post. Last year, there were two times where we had multiple-month breaks, mostly because I was burned out. This won’t happen this year. As the year draws to a close, I will be posting much more often.

If you have been a reader for a while, you know that last year I did my award breakdowns before playoffs…I will try to get that done, starting tomorrow with the Managers of the Year.

I will also be doing the playoff previews like last year. The only difference is that they will have more juicy stats for you to pour over and ignore. Those will come when the matchups are finalized.

Finally, this offseason, I will be reworking the side bar on the right to create a comprehensive listing of all the blogs I like, or find interesting, as well as some other stuff.

So basically, you’ll be getting a re-dedicated Jeff, and the same high-quality Sully to read this playoff/off season.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 9/17/2004 1:37 am

Offense
c – Jorge Posada 264/403/469 (5.9 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 304/399/493 (6.3 RC/27)

1b – John Olerud 289/365/380 (5.5 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 299/382/484 (6.1 RC/27)

2b – Miguel Cairo 292/341/429 (4.7 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 265/374/460 (6.4 RC/27)

3b – Alex Rodriguez 290/379/516 (6.7 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 268/372/437 (6.2 RC/27)

ss – Derek Jeter 288/348/467 (5.5 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 291/323/459 (4.5 RC/27)

lf – Hideki Matsui 297/391/509 (7.5 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 313/402/625 (7.8 RC/27)

cf – Bernie Williams 256/349/415 (4.7 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 310/388/474 (6.4 RC/27)

rf – Gary Sheffield 298/402/548 (8.1 RC/27)
Trot Nixon 288/352/477 (4.8 RC/27)

dh – Jason Giambi 214/353/391 (5.7 RC/27)
David Ortiz 298/373/600 (7.5 RC/27)

Bench:
New York:
Bubba Crosby 143/192/286 (4.1 RC/27)
Tony Clark 231/307/483 (5.4 RC/27)
Felix Escalona 000/000/000 (0.0 RC/27)
John Flaherty 241/279/448 (3.6 RC/27)
Kenny Lofton 280/346/409 (4.7 RC/27)
Dioner Navaro 1000/1000/1000 (632.6 RC/27)
Andy Phillips 000/000/000 (0.0 RC/27)
Ruban Sierra 256/310/477 (6.0 RC/27)
Enrique Wilson 216/256/333 (3.4 RC/27)

Boston:
Rickey Gutierrez 355/375/387 (2.8 RC/27)
Adam Hyzdu 500/500/1000 (32.5 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 273/307/401 (3.6 RC/27)
Sandy Martinez 000/000/000 (-2.7 RC/27)
David McCarty 245/319/378 (3.5 RC/27)
Doug Mientkiewicz 227/280/320 (3.0 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 281/366/519 (6.9 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 281/363/447 (5.3 RC/27)*
Pokey Reese 228/275/313 (2.6 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 269/342/448 (4.3 RC/27)

*Out indefinately (knee)

Team
New York: 269/354/459 5.7 RC/G
Boston: 284/361/477 5.7 RC/G

Offensive Efficiency:
New York – 101.8%
Boston – 98.2%

Cojones factor
New York – (-1.491)
Boston – (-4.862)

Stolen Bases
New York – (-4.8 BG) 72%
Boston – (-13.1 BG) 69%

Sacrifices
New York – 3.26 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.04 per 550 PA

Pitching

Friday:
Bronson Arroyo 9-9 4.04 (35.468)
Orlando Hernandez 8-0 2.49 (26.080)

Saturday:
Derek Lowe 14-11 4.91 (22.401)
John Lieber 11-8 4.46 (21.954)

Sunday:
Pedro Martinez 16-6 3.43 (58.863)
Mike Mussina 11-9 4.74 (15.796)

Rotations:
New York – 86.098
Boston – 201.884

Bullpens:
New York – 64.396
Tom Gordon – 30.601
Felix Heredia – (-4.066)
Steve Karsay – 0.548
Esteban Loazia – (5.178)
CJ Nitkowski – (-2.205)
Bret Prinz – 0.776
Scott Proctor – 1.590
Paul Quantrill – 13.909
Mariano Rivera – 32.292
Taynon Sturtze – (-7.298)

Boston – 94.390
Terry Adams – (-0.319)
Pedro Astacio – (-0.874)
Lenny DiNardo – 5.687
Alan Embree – 7.845
Keith Foulke – 34.433
Curtis Leskanic – 3.184
Ramiro Mendoza – 11.211
Mike Myers – 1.854
Mike Timlin – 14.831
Scott Williamson – 12.985

Usage:
New York – 2.6 RpG, 1.16 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.00 IPpApp

Comments Off

By Jeff, 9/13/2004 8:45 am

*I have internet in my house again. I do believe in unlikelyhoods.

*I don’t understand the direct logic of starting Pokey Reese, and Dave McCarty at the same time. Neither can hit, and you kinda need that to win games. That said, I’m not upset that the Red Sox punted the game yesterday. They are up 6 with 20 to play, and a playoff spot is all but assured.

*Francona did make a great decision though, and that was playing Nixon with Lowe on the mound. Not only does it get Nixon out on the field, but it’s a low stress game, due to Lowe’s ground ball tendancies. Good move, Tito.

*Bad sign: Manny forgot how many outs there were. Good sign: That’s the first time in a few months.

*Against the Devil Rays, the Sox are pitching Schilling, Pedro, and Wakefield. Talk about two bazookas and a peashooter to kill a fly (I’m not advocating changing the rotation around. I just think it’s funny.)

*The Red Sox strength of schedule for the rest of the year is .502. The Yankees are .504. That means the Sox’ chances of winning the division are pretty slim, unless they take 4 or 5 games from the Yankees.

*I don’t have a good way to wrap this up. So now I leave.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 9/6/2004 1:38 pm

Magic Number for Wild Card – 24
Magic Number for Division – 28

Offense
c – Damian Miller 289/354/439 (6.2 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 308/403/506 (6.4 RC/27)

1b – Scott Hatteberg 310/393/461 (7.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 298/383/464 (5.9 RC/27)

2b – Mark McLemore 252/356/313 (4.4 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 265/377/456 (6.3 RC/27)

3b – Eric Chavez 284/411/542 (7.4 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 287/368/461 (5.7 RC/27)

ss – Bobby Crosby 251/334/441 (4.6 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 281/306/459 (4.2 RC/27)

lf – Nick Swisher 600/778/1400 (55.8 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 316/406/623 (7.7 RC/27)

cf – Mark Kotsay 303/359/443 (6.1 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 314/390/471 (6.2 RC/27)

rf – Eric Byrnes 288/350/481 (6.7 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 278/344/463 (4.6 RC/27)

dh – Eurbial Durazo 321/391/531 (8.7 RC/27)
David Ortiz 302/375/609 (7.7 RC/27)

Bench
Oakland
Jermaine Dye 258/321/447 (5.2 RC/27)
Esteban German 245/286/302 (4.7 RC/27)
Bobby Kielty 210/313/362 (4.3 RC/27)
Billy McMillon 211/291/390 (3.9 RC/27)
Adam Melhuse 258/316/461 (3.8 RC/27)
Marco Scutaro 277/301/393 (4.5 RC/27)

Boston
Rickey Guiterrez 367/387/400 (2.9 RC/27)
Adam Hyzdu 000/000/000 (0.0 RC/27)
Tim Hummel 000/000/000 (0.0 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 272/307/394 (3.3 RC/27)
Sandy Martinez 000/000/000 (0.0 RC/27)
David McCarty 246/323/384 (3.6 RC/27)
Doug Mientkewicz 221/260/324 (2.6 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 271/343/512 (6.1 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 281/384/461 (6.7 RC/27)

Oakland – 274/348/442 (5.7 RC/game)
Red Sox – 285/362/476 (5.6 RC/game)

Offensive Efficiency:
Oakland – 106.7%
Boston – 97.0%

Cojones factor
Oakland – 4.167
Boston – (-3.958)

Stolen Bases
Oakland – (-16.1 BG) 66%
Boston – (-12.8 BG) 68%

Sacrifices
Oakland – 1.82 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.12 per 550 PA

Pitching
Monday:
Bronson Arroyo 7-9 4.24 (29.237)
Barry Zito 10-9 4.58 (26.198)

Tuesday:
Derek Lowe 13-10 5.15 (16.395)
Mark Redman 10-10 4.50 (23.145)

Wednesday:
Pedro Martinez 15-5 3.55 (52.758)
Tim Hudson 11-4 2.95 (46.956)

Rotations
Oakland – 174.485
Boston – 179.106

Bullpens
Oakland – 71.662
Chad Bradford – 8.339
Octavio Dotel – 6.636
Justin Duchscherer – 22.000
Chris Hammond – 12.782
Jim Mecir – 10.073
Arthur Rhodes – 3.798
Ricardo Rincon – 8.508

Boston – 85.729
Terry Adams – (-1.570)
Pedro Astacio – 0.000
Alan Embree – 8.269
Keith Foulke – 32.857
Curtis Leskanic – 3.383
Ramiro Mendoza – 9.734
Mike Myers – (-0.172)
Mike Timlin – 12.354

Usage
Oakland – 2.4 RpG, 1.09 IPpAPP
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.01 IPpAPP

Comments Off

By Jeff, 8/31/2004 1:53 pm

I wouldn’t miss these games for the world…

One interesting thing to watch…right now the Angels are going with a 4 man rotation, and a 10 man pitching staff.

Offense
c – Benji Molina 282/307/431 (4.5 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 306/400/509 (6.5 RC/27)

1b – Darren Erstad 316/365/432 (6.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 295/379/456 (5.6 RC/27)

2b – Adam Kennedy 271/343/392 (4.3 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 264/377/450 (6.2 RC/27)

3b – Chone Figgens 292/350/414 (5.2 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 286/365/448 (5.6 RC/27)

ss – David Eckstein 288/344/341 (3.8 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 270/291/432 (3.9 RC/27)

lf – Jose Guillen 304/365/528 (7.2 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 316/407/618 (7.8 RC/27)

cf – Garret Anderson 311/353/444 (6.1 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 305/383/463 (6.0 RC/27)

rf – Vlad Guerrero 331/384/571 (7.5 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 250/333/375 (3.4 RC/27)

dh – Troy Glaus 291/391/682 (10.2 RC/27)
David Ortiz 301/375/605 (7.7 RC/27)

Bench
Anaheim
Alfredo Amezaga 141/193/154 (0.3 RC/27)
Jeff DaVanon 304/388/456 (6.8 RC/27)
Jose Molina 251/285/361 (3.1 RC/27)
Josh Paul 263/317/404 (4.1 RC/27)
Curtis Pride 286/318/381 (3.3 RC/27)
Adam Riggs 133/188/200 (1.9 RC/27)

Boston
Rickey Guiterrez 367/387/400 (2.9 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 275/307/400 (3.3 RC/27)
Douf Mientkewicz 245/273/358 (2.8 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 280/348/528 (6.4 RC/27)

Team
Anaheim – 288/344/432 (5.2)
Boston – 283/360/471 (5.6)

Offensive Efficiency:
Anaheim – 99.7%
Boston – 96.2%

Clutch Number:
Anaheim – 2.063
Boston – 1.878

Stolen Bases:
Anaheim – 8.5 BG 74%
Boston – (-11.1 BG) 69%

Sacrifices:
Anaheim – 5.13 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.17 per 550 PA

Pitching
Tuesday:
John Lackey 11-10 5.00 (11.040)
Curt Schilling 16-6 3.38 (54.255)

Wednesday:
Aaron Sele 8-1 4.35 (16.080)
Bronson Arroyo 7-9 4.07 (31.436)

Thursday:
Bartolo Colon 13-10 5.38 (5.288)
Derek Lowe 12-10 5.22 (14.442)

Rotations:
Anaheim – 71.580
Boston – 173.763

Bullpens:
Anaheim – 95.732
Brandon Donnolly – 7.425
Kevin Gregg – 13.766
Ramon Ortiz – 13.994
Troy Percival – 9.352
Francisco Rodriguez – 28.827
Scot Shields – 24.793

Boston – 83.598
Terry Adams – (-4.047)
Alan Embree – 7.819
Keith Foulke – 32.155
Curt Leskanic – 2.483
Ramiro Mendoza – 9.059
Mike Myers – 2.702
Mike Timlin – 12.553

Usage:
Anaheim – 2.1 RpG, 1.43 IPpApp
Boston – 2.5 RpG, 1.02 IPpApp

Comments Off

By Jeff, 8/26/2004 1:29 pm

I really love that Sully has taken to doing a write up for many of the games. Not only does that task bore me, but it frees me up to other things, like play with numbers [/geek]

What I did was go and figure out the strength of each teams schedule currently in the playoff hunt. The method was to take the winning percentage of each team on the schedule (the Home WP if the team was home, Away if they were away), and multiplied by the amount of games left.

Then I summed that, and divided by the amount of total games, and got this:

BOS .514
ANA .514
OAK .465
TEX .495
NYY .466

Then what I did was use the log5 system in Bill James 81 Abstract and used the SOS and the current W% to figure out the records if things hold.

Nyy 101 -61 —
Bos 93-69 8 GB

Oak 95-67 —
Ana 93-69 2 GB
Tex 91-71 4 GB

Bos 93-69 —
Ana 93-69 —
Tex 91-71 2 GB

So…if everything holds up as it has been, it looks like the Yankees would play the Twins in the first round, and the Red Sox would play Oakland.

Unless the Sox lost the one game playoff…then it would be Yankees/Anaheim and Oakland/Minnesota.

Repeat of 2002 or 2003.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 8/20/2004 7:29 pm

Probably not, but I’m gonna find out.

I’ll be going to Cleveland from tomorrow until Tuesday to see the fine city, and go to the Jake on Monday to see Mike Mussina against Cliff Lee.

I’ll catch up with you guys Tuesday night/Wednesday.

Also, PokeyPerson took exception to Big Analysis in the comments section of my last post. Sorry. I’ll start changing what I do for people that troll blogs. We already have a designated troll.

Comments Off

By Jeff, 8/19/2004 1:38 am

I’m going to level with you. I won’t be saying much in this post. Instead, I give you Big Analysis. Big Anaylsis is me just giving you the stats that I usually use in my Series Preview on the team level for every team.

Upon discussion with Dewey’s House stalker Gerbil, Clutch Number has been renamed Cajones Factor. Who said stats are boring? Certainly not me.

American League
Adjusted Runs/Game

This is the park adjusted, runs per game that each team creates.

1. Cleveland Indians 5.64
2. New York Yankees 5.63
3. Detroit Tigers 5.62
4. Boston Red Sox 5.51
5. Chicago White Sox 5.22
6. Anaheim Angels 5.17
7. Baltimore Orioles 5.11
8. Oakland Athletics 4.99
9. Texas Rangers 4.99
10. Minnesota Twins 4.52
11. Tampa Devil Rays 4.49
12. Seattle Mariners 4.42
13. Kansas City Royals 4.08
14. Toronto Blue Jays 4.06

Offensive Efficiency

Runs scored/Runs created

1. Yankees 102.6%
2. Orioles 102.0%
3. Indians 101.9%
4. Blue Jays 101.4%
5. Royals 101.3%
6. Rangers 100.4%
7. White Sox 100.1%
8. Tigers 99.3%
9. Athletics 98.9%
10. Angels 98.3%
11. Red Sox 97.6%
12. Devil Rays 97.1%
13. Mariners 93.8%
14. Twins 93.7%

Cajones Factor

Hits with RISP+HR with MOB over expectation

1. Yankees 24.614
2. Athletics 19.117
3. White Sox 14.734
4. Devil Rays 9.919
5. Rangers 8.578
6. Angels 7.624
7. Royals 5.022
8. Tigers 0.590
9. Red Sox -4.143
10. Mariners -7.209
11. Indians -16.804
12. Blue Jays -18.800
13. Twins -19.496
14. Orioles -25.922

Bases Gained on Steals

Bases gained or lost via the steal, given a 73% break even rate

1. Angels 16.9
2. Yankees 12.9
3. Mariners 7.6
4. Devil Rays -1.5
5. Orioles -3.1
6. Twins -4.5
7. Athletics -13.1
8. Red Sox -14.7
9. Blue Jays -24.1
10. Rangers -24.8
11. Indians -33.5
12. White Sox -35.5
13. Royals -41.1
14. Tigers -50.1

Sacrifices

Number of Sacrifice bunts per 550 plate appearences

1. White Sox 5.49
2. Angels 5.47
3. Tigers 4.71
4. Mariners 4.64
5. Indians 4.43
6. Orioles 4.00
7. Royals 3.89
8. Twins 3.71
9. Yankees 3.30
10. Devil Rays 3.06
11. Rangers 2.18
12. Blue Jays 2.14
13. Athletics 1.61
14. Red Sox 0.92

Runs saved – Full staff

Runs saved over a hypothetical replacement level staff

1. Twins 233.3
2. Red Sox 228.1
3. Rangers 225.0
4. Athletics 211.8
5. Blue Jays 167.0
6. White Sox 164.3
7. Angels 156.2
8. Yankees 145.4
9. Devil Rays 137.4
10. Royals 124.7
11. Orioles 119.7
12. Indians 99.6
13. Mariners 87.4
14. Tigers 79.3

Runs saved – Rotation

1. Athletics 157.9
2. Red Sox 151.4
3. Twins 140.8
4. Blue Jays 113.0
5. Rangers 99.2
6. White Sox 90.4
7. Indians 81.3
8. Angels 66.2
9. Yankees 65.8
10. Mariners 57.3
11. Orioles 42.8
12. Devil Rays 41.7
13. Royals 39.9
14. Tigers 34.2

Runs saved – Bullpens

1. Rangers 122.9
2. Devil Rays 93.6
3. Twins 91.5
4. Angels 90.0
5. Royals 82.9
6. Yankees 79.6
7. Red Sox 78.1
8. Orioles 76.0
9. White Sox 73.9
10. Athletics 53.8
11. Blue Jays 51.0
12. Tigers 44.4
13. Mariners 30.1
14. Indians 17.3

Comments Off

By Jeff, 8/16/2004 12:41 pm

Unlike my Irish friend, I will not be in Southern California for the next week. Due to a crazy work schedule, look for bizarre posting times in the future!

Offense
c – Greg Zaun 276/378/401 (6.2 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 302/399/485 (6.4 RC/27)

1b – Carlos Delgado 236/339/476 (5.8 RC/27)
Doug Mientkiewicz 270/308/324 (3.9 RC/27)

2b – Orlando Hudson 258/340/419 (5.5 RC/27)
Rickey Guiterrez 278/316/333 (-0.3 RC/27)

3b – Eric Hinske 251/314/373 (3.8 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 278/355/447 (5.6 RC/27)

ss – Chris Gomez 286/343/347 (5.9 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 203/230/322 (2.4 RC/27)

lf – Reed Johnson 274/327/379 (5.1 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 317/407/617 (7.5 RC/27)

cf – Vernon Wells 281/344/456 (5.3 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 301/379/461 (5.8 RC/27)

rf – Alex Rios 290/334/398 (4.7 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 306/382/473 (5.8 RC/27)

dh – Frank Catalanotto 309/357/411 (6.3 RC/27)
David Ortiz 311/378/617 (8.1 RC/27)

Bench
Toronto
Dave Berg 266/288/353 (4.4 RC/27)
Kevin Cash 195/254/308 (2.5 RC/27)
Gabe Gross 200/333/450 (6.1 RC/27)
Frank Menechino 310/415/523 (8.6 RC/27)
Chris Woodward 236/275/360 (4.0 RC/27)

Boston
Gabe Kapler 282/316/423 (3.6 RC/27)
David McCarty 246/323/384 (3.6 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 287/363/564 (6.3 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 222/273/333 (1.1 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 281/384/461 (6.8 RC/27)*
*Suffered lower leg contusion on 8/15.

Team
Toronto – 261/328/398 (5.0)
Boston – 282/359/469 (5.5)

Offensive Efficiency:
Toronto – 123.2%
Boston – 97.2%

Clutch Number:
Toronto – (-19.776)
Boston – (-4.450)

Stolen Bases:
Toronto – (-23.4 BG) 62%
Boston – (-15.7 BG) 66%

Sacrifices:
Toronto – 2.19 per 550 PA
Boston – 0.95 per 550 PA

Pitching
Monday:
Justin Miller 1-1 4.38 (9.573)
Derek Lowe 10-10 5.33 (8.808)

Tuesday:
Ted Lilly 8-8 3.82 (36.606)
Pedro Martinez 13-4 3.72 (41.846)

Wednesday:
Miguel Batista 9-8 4.35 (31.609)
Tim Wakefield 8-7 4.67 (19.158)

Rotations:
Toronto – 112.085
Boston – 141.974

Bullpens:
Toronto – 51.806
Vinnie Chaulk – 9.817
Sean Douglass – 2.076
Jason Frasor – 18.555
Kevin Frederick – 0.153
Kerry Lightenberg – 0.120
Justin Speier – 8.290

Boston – 76.036
Terry Adams – (-0.623)
Alan Embree – 6.693
Keith Foulke – 28.527
Ramiro Mendoza – 7.357
Mike Myers – 2.251
Mike Timlin – 10.725

Usage:
Toronto – 2.6 RpG, 1.11 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.04 IPpApp

Comments Off

By Jeff, 8/13/2004 11:56 am

Be sure to scroll down to read posts from this morning and last night.

Offense
c – Ben Davis 308/308/481 (6.5 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 286/381/467 (5.9 RC/27)

1b – Paul Konerko 284/364/549 (6.1 RC/27)
Doug Mientkiewicz 281/303/344 (3.3 RC/27)

2b – Roberto Alomar 143/136/286 (3.1 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 278/355/449 (5.6 RC/27)

3b – Joe Crede 232/288/412 (3.1 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 282/383/471 (7.0 RC/27)

ss – Jose Valentin 231/298/523 (5.6 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 196/229/326 (2.0 RC/27)

lf – Carlos Lee 291/353/506 (6.3 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 317/409/610 (7.6 RC/27)

cf – Aaron Rowand 303/354/536 (6.1 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 304/379/468 (5.9 RC/27)

rf – Timo Perez 250/297/335 (4.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 305/382/466 (5.7 RC/27)

dh – Carl Everett 243/296/378 (4.7 RC/27)
David Ortiz 311/377/610 (8.1 RC/27)

Bench
Chicago
Sandy Alomar 241/299/293 (2.5 RC/27)
Joe Borchard 193/281/246 (2.0 RC/27)
Ross Gload 277/329/392 (3.9 RC/27)
Willie Harris 272/363/332 (4.7 RC/27)
Juan Uribe 261/315/461 (4.4 RC/27)

Boston
Rickey Guiterrez 267/267/333 (-1.5 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 286/321/427 (3.8 RC/27)
David McCarty 246/323/384 (3.7 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 278/358/567 (6.2 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 250/300/375 (2.3 RC/27)

Team
Chicago – 268/335/459 (5.2)
Boston – 279/357/467 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Chicago – 100.4%
Boston – 98.3%

Clutch Number:
Chicago – 13.927
Boston – (-11.051)

Stolen Bases:
Chicago – (-34.8 BG) 62%
Boston – (-15.7 BG) 66%

Sacrifices:
Chicago – 5.29 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.00 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday:
Jose Contreras 1-0 1.93 (6.406)
Tim Wakefield 8-6 4.58 (20.756)

Saturday:
John Garland 8-8 4.70 (23.013)
Curt Schilling 13-6 3.61 (43.687)

Sunday:
Mark Buehrle 10-6 3.83 (42.106)
Bronson Arroyo 5-8 4.14 (25.810)

Rotations:
Chicago – 88.083
Boston – 138.859

Bullpens:
Chicago – 71.589
Jon Adkins – 12.545
Neal Cotts – 5.081
Mike Jackson – 5.649
Damaso Marte – 17.831
Cliff Politte – 6.664
Shingo Takatsu – 21.560

Boston – 75.908
Terry Adams – 1.147
Alan Embree – 7.203
Keith Foulke – 27.793
Ramiro Mendoza – 5.543
Mike Myers – 1.799
Mike Timlin – 11.444

Usage:
Chicago – 2.4 RpG, 1.07 IPpApp
Boston – 2.5 RpG, 1.05 IPpApp

Comments Off

By Jeff, 8/12/2004 9:33 pm

Today, I was hit with my unique brand of writer’s block, so I asked the SoSH chatroom what I should write about. The ideas they had were ok, but I didn’t think I could spin a column out of them.

Therefore, what you are getting is topic ideas, and my terse reply. This is what makes Dewey’s House the Official Blog of the People. So much so, that ODB will ramble about it next time he’s at the Grammy’s, is cracked out, and wants to make RZA’s life a living hell.

I’m very white, by the way.

The Mets trading Kazmir

He’s one of the best prospects in baseball, and he was traded for Victor Zambrano? In terms of value, the Mets paid a steep price for a guy that will probably be a 4th starter.

Young pitchers are hard to project. Kazmir is slightly built, and might actually be destined to be a closer, but man, can he throw. Sometimes things just fall into your lap. Chuck LaMarr should put a picture of Jim Duquette up in his office.

Am I the last one to hear that Jimmy Anderson was traded?

Probably not, but the king of the mediocre Sox, Jimmy Anderson, was traded back to the Cubs. That means for a few weeks of Anderson, the Red Sox gave the Cubs non-prospect Andrew Shipley.

If Anderson is essentially traded for himself, does anyone care?

Just do what every blog does. Bitch about the Twins

Terry Ryan is overrated, and the team is the best in a crap division. They might have the best pitching staff in the AL. Their offense has been upgraded with Monreau, who will be a stud.

Gardenhire seems to be Tom Kelly’s understudy in getting under people’s skin, as he has exchanged words with Doug Mientkiewicz, and Jacque Jones.

Johan Santana is scary good.

The End of an Error

I guess this ment that in jettosing Garciaparra for Cabrera and Mientkiewicz, we upgraded defense. The Sox have committed five errors in the last 12 games, for two unearned runs.

Sweet.

Top 10 Reasons Dale Sveum is a douchebag

10. His name is pronounced Swain. It’s spelled Sveum.
9. He was on the 1998 Yankees
8. He hung Bellhorn out to dry against the Royals.
7. He looks like a shady poolhall attendant
6. He didn’t stick the screwdriver in his eye. He made Lynn Jones go first.
5. The way he got Dave Roberts, Jason Varitek, and Kevin Millar thrown out at home by Rocco Baldelli in the span of eight days.
4. Career on base percentage of .298, but he had a 12 year career.
3. He was traded for Bruce Ruffin and Keith Shepherd. That jerk.
2. The way his uniform top is too big so it tapers off at the belt. Numbers should be straight, not turning in.
1. The fact that he replaced Mike Cubbage, one of the best third base coaches in baseball.

Why did it take Pedro 4 years to throw a shutout?

In 2001, he missed most of the year. In 2002 and 2003, his shoulder was protected. And he’s a Dominican pansy, according to Dan Shaughnessy.

How did OC hit so well last year? Was it Vlad?

Fluke I suppose. I don’t buy protection theories, so I don’t know. He seems to be one of those every-other players, vacillating between good and bad. They should figure that out if they want to resign him for next year.

2005 will be a “good” if the pattern holds.

Why do people hate me?

Because you hooked up with Dale Sveum. You harlot.

Wow, I hope it this piece comes off as awkward as I think it will. The Official Red Sox Blog of the People owes that to it’s readers.