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By Jeff, 8/11/2004 5:41 pm

You all know that batting average isn’t very useful for the purposes of anaylzing baseball players. If you don’t know that, and that last statement made you angry, then I’m sorry, but you probably aren’t going to buy what the rest of what I’m writing today anyway, so go have a beer on me.

Ready.

Good.

Batting Average is basically boosted by singles. My reasoning behind thinking that is if you hear player A is batting .323 and player B is batting .285, then you don’t really know what kind of year they are having. You can probably guess though that player A has hit more singles.

I know that singles aren’t glamorous, and they are necissary pieces of offense. However, generally, teams with a lot of singles generally don’t score many runs. Teams with a lot of doubles, home runs, and walks do.

My friend Neil, a statistics grad, actually studied the issue, and he determined that singles have a weaker correlation with run scoring than walks do (.500 for singles, .591 for walks). I’m not sure exactly what that means, but it sounds like singles generally aren’t very significant compared to other ways to get on base. Yes I know you can’t score from second on a walk, but it doesn’t seem to matter.

Of course, Ichiro is the posterboy for singles. Because he hits singles at such a high rate (147 in 491 ab) his batting average is usually very high (.360 this season). And because of the high batting average, he posts a very good on base percentage (.401) and a good slugging percentage (.442).

Of course, if you look at an OPS line of 360/401/442, you think that Ichiro is having a good year. He is, but you don’t know more important things, like how much he’s walking and how much power he has in relation to other players.

That’s why I like to isolate the rates, as I call it.

Isolated discipline (sorry, but I can’t think of a better name) and it’s much more famous cousin, Isolated slugging, are those two rates, with batting average subtracted out. This tells you a players on base independant of hits (mostly singles) and a player’s power independent of the single-based bastards.

For the American League in 2004, you have a stat line of 270/336/432. That makes the two isolations are 066/162.

Here are the Red Sox:

           BA		OB		Slu		Iso d		Iso s	Bellhorn	0.256	16	0.373	7	0.432	11	0.117	1	0.176	9Burks	0.133	23	0.235	20	0.233	21	0.102	2	0.100	18Cabrera	0.211	20	0.231	21	0.368	18	0.020	20	0.157	12Crespo	0.165	22	0.165	23	0.215	22	0.000	21	0.050	21Damon	0.300	5	0.375	5	0.462	6	0.075	11	0.162	11Daubach	0.227	19	0.326	14	0.413	15	0.099	4	0.186	5Dominique	0.182	21	0.182	22	0.182	23	0.000	21	0.000	24Grcprr	0.321	1	0.367	8	0.500	4	0.046	16	0.179	8Guiterrez	0.308	3	0.308	17	0.385	17	0.000	21	0.077	20Kapler	0.290	7	0.325	15	0.435	10	0.035	18	0.145	15McCarty	0.246	17	0.320	16	0.388	16	0.074	12	0.142	17Mntkwcz	0.259	15	0.286	18	0.296	20	0.027	19	0.037	23Millar	0.298	6	0.377	4	0.448	9	0.079	8	0.150	14Mirabelli	0.281	10	0.361	9	0.573	3	0.080	7	0.292	3Mueller	0.265	14	0.342	12	0.432	11	0.077	9	0.167	10Nixon      0.273     13         0.345     11         0.424      14         0.072     7          0.151      13Ortiz	0.308	3	0.374	6	0.610	2	0.066	14	0.302	1Ramirez	0.317	2	0.406	1	0.611	1	0.089	6	0.294	2Reese	0.230	18	0.274	19	0.315	19	0.044	17	0.085	19Roberts	0.286	8	0.333	13	0.429	13	0.047	15	0.143	16Varitek	0.283	9	0.379	3	0.462	6	0.096	5	0.179	7Youkilis	0.280	11	0.382	2	0.460	8	0.102	2	0.180	6Pitchers	0.095	24	0.095	24	0.143	24	0.000	21	0.048	22

The number right next to the rate stat is the team rank. Happy parusing.

Derek Lowe vs Dewan Brazelton tonight. I’ve been more confident…

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By Jeff, 8/10/2004 10:15 pm

As I’m sure you’ve heard, Edgar Martinez has decided to hang it up at the end of the 2004 season.

If you’ve been reading for a while, you know that Martinez is my kind of player. What I didn’t realize is that in our little corner of the internet (Red Sox fans), I’ve read that Edgar was pretty much the most popular non-Red Sox amongst the fans.

I don’t know if its the career .420 on base percentage, or the way he completely destroyed the Yankees in the 1995 ALDS (.571/.667/1.000), but Edgar seemed to have carved out a little nitch for himself among the Red Sox Internet Clique.

Before I get on to the meat of this post, let me post the line from Edgar’s 1995 season:

356 batting average
479 on base
628 slugging

That from a guy that didn’t hit 30 home runs in a year until he was 37 years old.

Now, the Mariners. They might be my least favorite franchise in the American League. Not only do they do goofy things like wait to give Edgar a job until he was 27, and release John Olerud without much warning, but they are perennial underachievers.

Think about it. Think about the talent on the Mariners teams in the mid-late 90s. How they never even made the World Series is beyond me. In 1997, they had Paul Sorrento, Joey Cora, Alex Rodriguez, Russ Davis, Ken Griffey, Jay Buhner, and Edgar Martinez all having above average years for their position.

They had Jeff Fassaro, Randy Johnson, and Jamie Moyer all having good years. Woody Williams never saw it fit to put a bullpen on the team, and they won 90 games in a weak AL West.

They lost to a very good Baltimore team in the ALDS, but the Orioles lost to very, very mediocre Indians team in the ALCS. That’s the story of those Mariners teams. They always had a good amount of talent, but when it came to exploiting an opponet’s vurnablity, they never could.

So that’s when the Mariners started to annoy me.

Fast forward to 2004. The Mariners were getting old, and new GM Bill “My dad built the Dodgers!” Bavasi decided the best way to combat that was to make the team older with 30+ signees Scott Spiezio, Raul Ibanez, and Rich Aurilia. In the process, he lost a draft pick to the Royals with the Ibanez signing.

Since then, the Mariners have gone into the tank. They DFA’ed John Olerud, Pat Boarders, and Aurilia. They’ve essentially platooned Edgar Martinez with 28-year-old “rookie” Bucky Jacobson. They’ve refused to cash in chips Eddie Guardado, and Randy Winn for tasty prospects. In short, the franchise is a mess.

Not saying the trio of DFA’s weren’t deserved (although I don’t see the logic of paying Olerud to play for the Yankees), but the Mariners should have never have been in that situation in the first place. The only good move they’ve made this year, and I’m saying good, not fixing a past mistake, is somehow getting Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed for Freddy Garcia and Ben Davis. I don’t know if that’s Bavasi’s good, or Kenny Williams being Kenny Williams again.

The Mariners are the AL West’s premier franchise in terms of revenue. However, rather than capitalize on that, Bavasi has turn the franchise into one with little direction, other than to try and out old the Yankees.

It’s a shame in their history, despite having a few great teams, they never capitalized. And now that Edgar Martinez is leaving at the end of the year, the organization loses the last bit of personality it had from those great teams. With Ichiro little more than a glorified singles hitter, and your best pitcher being 68 years old, it looks like some dark days in Seattle until people like Felix Hernandez are ready, and Chris Snelling learns to stay out of the hospital.

I think it will probably be a while before the Mariners aren’t just another random, faceless team. And I don’t think Howard Lincoln, and Bill Bavasi are smart enough to prevent that.

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By Jeff, 8/9/2004 11:25 am

Offense
c – Toby Hall 272/324/390 (4.9 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 277/376/458 (5.5 RC/27)

1b – Tino Martinez 282/376/482 (6.0 RC/27)
Doug Mientkiewicz 316/350/368 (5.1 RC/27)

2b – Julio Lugo 273/340/404 (5.6 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 264/342/436 (5.1 RC/27)

3b – Aubrey Huff 280/347/464 (5.2 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 281/386/464 (7.0 RC/27)

ss – BJ Upton 222/263/278 (2.6 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 200/226/400 (2.4 RC/27)

lf – Carl Crawford 307/337/458 (5.8 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 320/409/618 (7.7 RC/27)

cf – Rocco Baldelli 281/328/412 (4.4 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 303/379/469 (5.9 RC/27)

rf – Jose Cruz 235/352/443 (5.5 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 295/375/449 (5.1 RC/27)

dh – Bob Fick 201/276/333 (3.4 RC/27)
David Ortiz 308/374/616 (8.2 RC/27)

Bench
Tamp Bay
Geoff Blum 198/245/329 (2.1 RC/27)
Brook Fordyce 179/223/236 (0.4 RC/27)
Damian Rolls 171/264/211 (1.7 RC/27)
Rey Sanchez 257/295/359 (3.8 RC/27)

Boston
Rickey Guiterrez 308/308/385 (-1.8 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 281/317/413 (3.5 RC/27)
David McCarty 246/320/388 (3.7 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 281/361/573 (6.3 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 286/333/429 (4.0 RC/27)

Team
Tampa Bay – 256/320/398 (4.4)
Boston – 279/357/467 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Tampa Bay – 97.0%
Boston – 98.3%

Clutch Number:
Tampa Bay – 9.848
Boston – (-11.051)

Stolen Bases:
Tampa Bay – (-0.1 BG) 73%
Boston – (-15.7 BG) 66%

Sacrifices:
Tampa Bay – 3.05 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.00 per 550 PA

Pitching
Monday:
John Halama 5-5 4.39 (2.174)
Curt Schilling 13-5 3.38 (46.381)

Tuesday:
Jorge Sosa 3-0 4.69 (5.620)
Bronson Arroyo 4-8 4.15 (24.361)

Wednesday:
Dewan Brazelton 4-3 2.56 (21.699)
Derek Lowe 9-10 5.50 (7.910)

Thursday:
Mark Hendrickson 8-10 4.24 (22.784)
Pedro Martinez 12-4 3.94 (35.682)

Rotations:
Tampa Bay – 60.068
Boston – 133.391

Bullpens:
Tampa Bay – 40.084
Danys Baez – 15.115
Lance Carter – 14.597
Jesus Colome – 8.109
Jeremi Gonzalez – 1.328
Travis Harper – 7.327
Trever Miller – 11.590
Bobby Seay – 3.233

Boston – 73.514
Terry Adams – 1.125
Alan Embree – 7.545
Keith Foulke – 27.143
Ramiro Mendoza – 4.974
Mike Myers – 0.225
Mike Timlin – 11.468

Usage:
Tampa Bay – 2.5 RpG, 1.32 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.05 IPpApp

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By Jeff, 8/6/2004 12:03 pm

Today is the offical One Year Birthday of Dewey’s House. I wanted to thank the people that continued to read us, despite three prolonged vacations by myself. With out the readers, it would just be Sully and I posting our unique brand of inanity for eachother’s benefit. F that. Here’s the preview.

Offense
c – Ivan Rodriguez 347/394/522 (8.1 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 277/376/446 (5.4 RC/27)

1b – Carlos Pena 226/311/426 (4.7 RC/27)
Doug Mientkiewicz 545/583/636 (20.2 RC/27)

2b – Omar Infante 269/333/469 (5.4 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 261/339/437 (5.1 RC/27)

3b – Brandon Inge 282/341/482 (5.8 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 275/381/430 (6.4 RC/27)

ss – Carlos Guillen 322/388/564 (7.9 RC/27)
Orlando Cabrera 125/176/375 (1.0 RC/27)

lf – Rondell White 272/342/465 (6.1 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 321/411/621 (7.8 RC/27)

cf – Alex Sanchez 328/348/391 (4.5 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 301/377/467 (6.0 RC/27)

rf – Bobby Higgenson 250/346/361 (5.3 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 298/374/456 (5.1 RC/27)

dh – Dmitri Young 276/355/462 (5.8 RC/27)
David Ortiz 310/377/617 (8.1 RC/27)

Bench
Detriot
Mike DiFelice 143/250/238 (1.4 RC/27)
Eric Munson 224/307/452 (6.0 RC/27)
Chris Shelton 243/356/351 (3.6 RC/27)
Jason Smith 318/338/636 (5.5 RC/27)
Marcus Thames 273/319/580 (7.7 RC/27)

Boston
Rickey Guiterrez 308/308/385 (-1.8 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 271/309/396 (3.2 RC/27)
David McCarty 238/312/389 (3.6 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 287/350/585 (6.2 RC/27)
Dave Roberts 000/000/000 (-2.5 RC/27)

Team
Detroit – 277/342/448 (5.5)
Boston – 278/356/465 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Detroit – 98.8%
Boston – 97.8%

Clutch Number:
Detroit – 7.230
Boston – (-10.519)

Stolen Bases:
Detroit – (-53.8 BG) 57%
Boston – (-9.7 BG) 68%

Sacrifices:
Detroit – 4.78 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.03 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday:
Derek Lowe 9-9 5.52 (7.713)
Mike Maroth 8-7 4.44 (18.055)

Saturday:
Pedro Martinez 11-4 4.07 (32.603)
Jeremy Bonderman 6-8 6.06 (-5.972)

Sunday:
Tim Wakefield 7-6 4.15 (24.977)
Nate Robertson 9-6 4.31 (14.717)

Rotations:
Detroit – 36.676
Boston – 135.554

Bullpens:
Detroit – 40.084
John Ennis – (-2.175)
Al Levine – 5.540
Roberto Novoa – 3.092
Ugueth Urbina – 7.417
Jamie Walker – 11.387
Esteban Yan – 12.374

Boston – 74.073
Terry Adams – 0.679
Alan Embree – 7.722
Keith Foulke – 27.045
Mark Malaska – 3.587
Ramiro Mendoza – 3.888
Mike Timlin – 13.139

Usage:
Detroit – 2.7 RpG, 1.13 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.05 IPpApp

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By Jeff, 8/3/2004 9:23 am

Today, my job has brought me to the precipice of hell (Clay Aiken concert), so I can’t post my thoughts yet in a congizant manner until sometime tomorrow.

Depending on how it goes, Sully and I might get into a knife fight. I’ll sell tickets through this website.

Comments (2)

By Jeff, 7/30/2004 8:02 pm

Offense
c – Henry Blanco 215/272/360 (2.9 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 273/372/431 (5.1 RC/27)

1b – Justin Morneau 272/314/506 (5.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 296/372/460 (5.1 RC/27)

2b – Luis Rivas 260/286/409 (3.7 RC/27)
Mark Bellorn 258/373/430 (5.9 RC/27)

3b – Cory Koskie 239/341/450 (4.9 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 260/332/429 (4.9 RC/27)

ss – Cristian Guzman 288/318/396 (4.0 RC/27)
Ricky Guiterrez 167/167/333 (-1.1 RC/27)

lf – Lew Ford 307/382/489 (7.0 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 327/421/637 (8.3 RC/27)

cf – Torii Hunter 269/322/459 (4.4 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 306/386/480 (6.4 RC/27)

rf – Jacques Jones 251/309/435 (4.3 RC/27)
Gabe Kapler 271/309/407 (3.2 RC/27)

dh – Shannon Stewart 308/399/423 (7.1 RC/27)
David Ortiz 308/376/620 (8.1 RC/27)

Bench
Minnesota
Jason Bartlett 000/000/000 (0.0 RC/27)
Michael Cuddyer 249/312/423 (4.3 RC/27)
Matt LeCroy 270/328/420 (4.6 RC/27)
Doug Meintkeiwicz 238/334/356 (3.7 RC/27)
Jose Offerman 228/354/382 (4.4 RC/27)

Boston
Andy Dominique 182/182/182 (1.1 RC/27)
Nomar Garciaparra 321/367/500 (6.0 RC/27)*
David McCarty 244/321/378 (3.3 RC/27)
Doug Mirabelli 278/343/589 (6.0 RC/27)
Kevin Youkilis 292/396/454 (7.1 RC/27)
*Expected to miss the weekend with a achillies strain.

Team
Minnesota – 263/329/421 (4.7)
Boston – 279/357/468 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Minnesota – 98.5%
Boston – 97.1%

Clutch Number:
Minnesota – 1.521
Boston – (-11.040)

Stolen Bases:
Minnesota – (-5.1 BG) 71%
Boston – (-5.4 BG) 70%

Sacrifices:
Minnesota – 3.66 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.09 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday:
Bronson Arroyo 3-7 4.20 (20.136)
Kyle Loshe 4-7 4.87 (14.460)

Saturday:
Derek Lowe 9-9 5.56 (5.613)
Brad Radke 7-6 3.69 (35.211)

Sunday:
Pedro Martinez 11-4 4.15 (28.458)
Johan Santana 9-6 3.36 (41.409)

Rotations:
Minnesota – 120.917
Boston – 115.908

Bullpens:
Minnesota – 70.469
Grant Balfor – 7.807
Aaron Fultz – 7.721
Joe Nathan – 25.777
Juan Rincon – 19.514
Joe Roa – 7.018
JC Romero – 9.579

Boston – 69.932
Terry Adams – 0.669
Alan Embree – 6.538
Keith Foulke – 24.914
Mark Malaska – 3.384
Ramiro Mendoza – 3.800
Mike Timlin – 13.691

Usage:
Minnesota – 2.7 RpG, 1.13 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.06 IPpApp

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By Jeff, 7/28/2004 1:47 pm

…but I hate New Jersey as well.

I was all pumped about going to see Citizen’s Bank park, but the entire state of New Jeresy was flooded out. A four hour trip to my girlfriend’s parent’s house in Jersey too us nine. We arrived at 7 p.m. No game in Philadelphia.

By the way, morning shift should be called morning shit. I’m still bitter about it a week later.

Since you are all dying to know know, here is my take on the fight.

Arroyo hits a lot of guys. ARod is a guy (presumably). He got hit. Rather than either charge the mound, or jog down to first, ARod yelled at Arroyo. Varitek did what catchers do and got between ARod and Arroyo. Homeplate umpire Bruce Froemming arrived on the scene. After that, the TV camera was focused on ARod and he said:

Fuck you, fuck you motherfucker! Come on!

I’m sure Varitek wasn’t saying “Golly gee, you sure look upset Mr. Rodriguez,” but I have no idea what he was saying. Eitherway, this illicted Tek to take the Yankee 3rd baseman up on his offer. There was shoving, then a head lock (Varitek jammed his wrist) and everyone gathered for some tea and crumpets.

This is when a leisurely day at the park turned ugly. Yankee pitcher Tanyon Sturtze got to the scrum, headlocked Gabe Kapler (probably the Budwiser Stupidest Decision of the Game) and dragged him out of the pile. Right into David Ortiz and Trot Nixon. Sturtze wrestled with Kapler while he got taken down by him, Ortiz, and Nixon. Sturtze got cut behind the ear, and jammed his pinky, went out to pitch the bottom of the 3rd, and got shelled.

My opinion is that Sturtze was probably most in the wrong in pulling a Mickey Rivers move on Kapler. Everyone else did things that were SOP in baseball (although I did lose some respect for ARod for him waiting until there was someone to separate him from Varitek to challenge the catcher.)

Finally, I don’t have a link because I got this second hand, but I was told that ARod said that “things like this happen when you hate a team”, referring to the Red Sox. This was of course a change in tune from when he almost gave up $50 million to come to Boston.

My reaction to that is that what he says doesn’t matter. To be honest, I don’t blame ARod from making comments like that. He’s on a new team who has a volatile rivalry, and he would have to be a pretty cold hearted bastard not to buy into that (see: Curt Schilling’s comments about the Yankees). Also, he probably feels disrespected by Larry Lucchino (reportedly, ARod was so disenfranchised with Lucky that Tom Warner had to pick up negotiations with the Rangers), and felt like the Red Sox didn’t try hard enough to get him out of Texas after Orza ruled. I don’t care that he hates the Red Sox, but I also don’t blame him.

Now that my head is clear, I have to hunt down Jay Jaffe and tell him Dewey’s House is my site with a brick (kidding, Sully does yeoman’s work here), and get excited to see Curt “Burt” Schilling vs. David “Son of Sam” Borkowski on the ole NESN.

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By Jeff, 7/22/2004 7:34 am

You see, unlike Sully, I do have stuff to say.

You see, I am not a morning person. I generally go to bed between 1-3 am, and wake up between 9-11. By wake up, my body is physically awake, but my mind doesn’t kick into gear for 30 minutes or so after I am up.

Today, because of a small vacation I am taking this weekend (No Jeff until Tuesday probably. I’m leaving tonight, so no Yankee preview either), I was forced to take the 7 am shift at work. Not only do I have a headache, but I’ve slammed two Cokes (I don’t drink coffee), and I’m still dozing off. I just can’t wake up.

I think that is a good analogy for the Red Sox this season. The just won’t wake up.

I don’t know if it is a function of expectation, but the Sox have played some pretty uninspired baseball the last few months. It hasn’t been bad baseball (despite some ugly losses), but it hasn’t been good either. It’s been mediocre baseball since the double header sweep against the Devil Rays in May.

Actually, I’m convinced it was a function of fan expectation. And it pisses me off they aren’t playing better. Expectation begets frustration in this case.

Anyway, last night, Pedro pitched great, and then like hell. Johnny Damon played a bad centerfield, and I think to the disappoint ment of Costiglione and Trupiano, the infield defense of Millar/Mueller/Youkilis/Bellhorn didn’t kill Boston.

The Sox didn’t really hit, save Kapler, and the end result was a 10-5 loss. To the Orioles.

Despite all this, I’m still optomistic that the Sox can make it to the playoffs. They swept the A’s, and took 2/3 from the Rangers at home, and then split on the West coast. Except for Seattle, these are good teams they beat up on. The Red Sox were especially brutal to the vaunted pitching of the Oakland Athletics. Facts over looked by the “They’re ruinin’ my summmmaahhhhh!” crew.

Frustration begets blindness.

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By Jeff, 7/21/2004 3:34 am

Offense
Catcher
Javy Lopez – 317/371/480 (5.1)
Jason Varitek – 278/379/444 (5.3)

First Base
Rafael Palmeiro – 252/359/414 (5.1)
Kevin Millar – 269/348/384 (3.9)

Second Base
Brian Roberts – 258/329/355 (5.0) (Roberts left the game on 7/20 with a hand injury)
Mark Bellhorn – 266/385/437 (6.1)

Third Base
Melvin Mora – 343/430/557 (8.1)
Bill Mueller – 267/346/414 (5.0)

Shortstop
Miguel Tejada – 308/358/512 (6.3)
Nomar Garciaparra – 318/364/523 (6.3)

Left Field
Larry Bigbie – 263/327/401 (3.8)
Manny Ramirez – 342/438/677 (9.0)

Center Field
Luis Matos – 226/275/335 (2.9)
Johnny Damon – 310/392/485 (6.5)

Right Field
Jerry Hairston – 301/365/393 (5.6)(Hairston left the game on 7/20 with a bruised side)
Trot Nixon – 253/326/422 (3.5)

Designated Hitter
David Newhan – 413/462/624 (14.6)
David Ortiz – 305/362/615 (7.7)

Bench
Baltimore
Karim Garcia – 400/400/1600 (25.3)*
Ken Huckaby – 286/286/429 (4.9)*
Luis Lopez – 241/283/352 (2.7)
Robert Machado – 195/233/341 (2.1)
Tim Raines – 294/333/353 (4.8)

*Numbers as an Oriole only

Boston
Gabe Kapler – 266/308/392 (2.7)
David McCarty – 226/308/365 (2.6)
Doug Mirabelli – 300/364/638 (7.0)
Pokey Reese – 231/275/317 (2.6) (Reese left the game on 7/19 with a strained rib cage)

Team
Baltimore – 278/343/423 (5.0)
Boston – 278/358/465 (5.4)

Offensive Efficiency:
Baltimore – 105.2%
Boston – 96.5%

Clutch Number:
Baltimore – (-34.630)
Boston – (-11.784)

Stolen Bases:
Baltimore – (-3.8 BG) 72%
Boston – (-7.4 BG) 69%

Sacrifices:
Baltimore – 3.18 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.18 per 550 PA

Pitching
Wednesday:
Erik Bedard (17.710)
3-4 3.90
4.11 DIPS

Pedro Martinez (32.758)
10-3 3.64
3.76 DIPS

Thursday (day):
Rodrigo Lopez (6.885) [only as starter]
7-6 3.76
4.18 DIPS

Tim Wakefield (17.382) [only as starter]
5-6 4.43
4.39 DIPS

Thursday (night):
TBA vs. TBA

Rotations:
Baltimore – 24.415
Boston – 119.671

Bullpens:
Baltimore – 51.878
BJ Ryan – 22.355
Eddy Rodriguez – 8.119
Jorge Julio – 4.806
Buddy Groom – 2.688
Dave Brokowski – 1.941
Jason Grimsley – (-3.823)

Boston – 65.655
Keith Foulke – 24.130
Mike Timlin – 13.014
Alan Embree – 5.199
Ramiro Mendoza – 2.231
Jimmy Anderson – 1.346
Curtis Leskanic – 0.477
Joe Nelson – (-3.215)

Usage:
Baltimore – 2.7 RpG, 1.30 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.07 IPpApp

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By Jeff, 7/19/2004 6:53 pm

Blogger has changed their posting interface some, so insted of re-writing the entire preview of this series, I’ll link the orginal post on my little message board The Blair Wasdin Project

A quick little look…Seattle’s offense is terrible, and their whole organization is a mess. That said, the Red Sox seem to have an inability to play consistantly well on the road. My prediction is that the Sox take tonight, and lose in the Lowe start.

With Lowe losing again, I wager he falls into a deep depression, like Ron Burgandy in “Anchorman”. I half expect Pedro, Schilling, Arroyo, and Wakefield to walk past a bearded Lowe on the LaGrange St, while he’s guzzling milk.

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By Jeff, 7/15/2004 3:28 pm

Kevin Youkilis was sent down to day, per the Boston Globe.

There are three ramifications to this move:
1. The Red Sox no longer lead the majors in Jews. This is sure to annoy my family.

2. Bellhorn is the backup 3rd baseman now, which means that we are one Mueller injury away from seeing either Youkilis come back up, or a Millar/Reese/Bellhorn/Garciaparra infield.

3. The man called up…bringing the roster split to 13 players/12 pitchers…

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By Jeff,

Offense
c – Benji Molina 294/316/435 (4.5 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 275/379/439 (5.0 RC/27)

1b – Darren Erstad 296/341/389 (5.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 280/361/401 (4.3 RC/27)

2b – Adam Kennedy 264/327/389 (4.2 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 268/388/443 (6.4 RC/27)

3b – Chone Figgens 307/364/459 (6.0 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 285/359/442 (5.5 RC/27)

ss – David Eckstein 293/349/346 (3.7 RC/27)
Nomar Garciaparra 327/365/523 (6.8 RC/27)

lf – Jose Guillen 301/368/509 (7.4 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 344/437/682 (9.3 RC/27)

cf – Garret Anderson 316/365/475 (7.0 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 321/401/488 (7.0 RC/27)

rf – Vlad Guerrero 345/392/591 (8.3 RC/27)
Trot Nixon 231/307/431 (2.8 RC/27)

dh – Tim Salmon 228/289/325 (3.8 RC/27)/Jeff DaVannon 298/393/429 (6.9 RC/27)
David Ortiz 304/354/600 (7.2 RC/27)

Anaheim – 282/339/428 (5.1 RC/game)
Red Sox – 281/360/468 (5.5 RC/game)

Offensive Efficiency:
Anaheim – 96.1%
Boston – 96.9%

‘Clutch number’
Anaheim – 22.253
Boston – (-14.063)

Stolen Bases
Anaheim – 6.9 BG 75%
Boston – (-5.7 BG) 60%

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense.

Sacrifices
Anaheim – 5.75 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.26 per 550 PA

Pitching
Thursday – Lowe (5.044) vs. Washburn (12.055)
Friday – Wakefield (20.101) vs.Escobar (19.159)
Saturday – Martinez (31.197) vs. Colon (-8.048)
Sunday – Schilling (40.357) vs. Lackey (10.427)

Rotations
Anaheim – 42.012
Boston – 115.538

Bullpens
Anaheim – 70.149
Boston – 71.087

Usage
Anaheim – 2.2 RpG, 1.46 IPpApp
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.09 IPpApp

Best 4 Bullpen-
Angels
Rodriguez 22.710
Shields 17.085
Gregg 13.292
Ortiz 12.489

Red Sox
Foulke 23.634
Timlin 12.512
Williamson 11.583
Embree 6.435

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By Jeff, 7/12/2004 3:25 pm

I hope Sully posts his.

AL MVP – Manny Ramirez
2. Vlad Guerrero
3. Ivan Rodriguez
4. Frank Thomas
5. David Ortiz
6. Carlos Guillen
7. Jorge Posada
8. Hank Blalock
9. Michael Young
10. Mark Mulder

NL MVP – Barry Bonds
2. JD Drew
3. Todd Helton
4. Bobby Abreu
5. Scott Rolen
6. Jim Thome
7. Lance Berkman
8. Albert Pujols
9. Sean Casey
10. Mike Lowell

AL Cy Young – Mark Mulder
2. Curt Schilling
3. Brad Radke
4. Kenny Rogers
5. Johan Santana

NL Cy Young – Jason Schmidt
2. Randy Johnson
3. Carl Pavano
4. Roger Clemens
5. Tom Glavine

AL Rookie of the Year – Bobby Crosby
2. Kevin Youkilis
3. Daniel Cabrera

NL Rookie of the Year – Ryan Madison
2. Jason Bay
3. Akinori Otsuka

AL Manager of the Year – Lou Piniella
2. Mike Scioscia
3. Buck Showalter

NL Manager of the year – Jim Tracy
2. Dave Miley
3. Art Howe

Red Sox MVP – Manny Ramirez
Biggest surprise – Mark Bellhorn/Johnny Damon
Biggest disappointment – Byung-hyun Kim/Derek Lowe
Offensive Grade – B
Rotation Grade – B+ (would be an A if not for Lowe)
Bullpen Grade – B
Francona Grade – B-
Front Office Grade – C+

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By Jeff, 7/9/2004 5:15 pm

Offense
c – Rod Barajas 270/290/546 (4.8 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 272/377/429 (4.8 RC/27)

1b – Mark Teixeira 278/374/556 (6.8 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 283/360/408 (4.5 RC/27)

2b – Alfonso Soriano 289/329/461 (4.6 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 262/384/429 (6.2 RC/27)

3b – Hank Blalock 308/372/575 (7.0 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 287/358/449 (5.7 RC/27)

ss – Michael Young 335/376/508 (7.0 RC/27)
Nomar Garciaparra 287/327/468 (5.3 RC/27)

lf – Dave Delucci 284/361/497 (6.0 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 338/435/662 (8.7 RC/27)

cf – Gary Matthews Jr 288/353/466 (6.7 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 312/397/457 (6.6 RC/27)

rf – Kevin Mench 280/325/528 (5.0 RC/27)
Trot Nixon 241/313/467 (2.8 RC/27)

dh – Brad Fullmer 242/315/463 (3.8 RC/27)
David Ortiz 301/351/601 (7.2 RC/27)

Texas – 281/341/479 (5.1 RC/game)
Red Sox – 278/358/460 (5.5 RC/game)

Offensive Efficiency:
Texas – 100.3%
Boston – 97.3%

‘Clutch number’
Texas – (-0.020)
Boston – (-12.389)

Stolen Bases
Texas – (-36.1 BG) 57%
Boston – (-10.7 BG) 67%

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense.

Sacrifices
Texas – 1.69 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.31 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday – Benoit (4.636) vs. Arroyo (13.139)
Saturday – Rogers (36.290) vs. Lowe (-0.191)
Sunday – Drese (28.674) vs. Wakefield (20.480)

Rotations
Texas – 87.196
Boston – 103.299

Bullpens
Texas – 77.813
Boston – 66.641

Usage
Texas – 2.7 RpG, 1.14 IPpAPP
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.09 IPpAPP

Best 4 Bullpen-
Rangers
Cordero – 17.567
Almanzar – 13.353
Mahay – 12.891
Shouse – 8.249

Red Sox
Foulke – 23.016
Timlin – 12.239
Williamson – 11.452
Embree – 5.567

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By Jeff, 7/8/2004 11:18 pm

This is an e-mail I recieved this last week:

Jeff-

I really enjoy your site, and I love the point of view you and Patrick express. Please don’t take this as criticism, but I’ve noticed a disctinct difference in style between you two. Patrick seems to be a more straight forward and organized. You seem to be more interesting, but are much harder to read. You guys would be great if you could combine into one.

Good luck,
Jim

I don’t know if that’s true or not. Could Sully be the more understated superego to my prone-to-say-motherfucker-a-lot id?

This got me thinking about the Red Sox. Could it be they suffer from the same psychosis as Jim seems to think?

In this game, the Sox had a blow out, lost the lead, and stole a win with speed. This after two blowouts. And getting blown out. They swept the A’s, got swept by the Yankees.

The whole post to this point has been made to confuse Jim.

Much like the Red Sox have confused me…hmmmm. Maybe we’re on to something here…

Ranger preview tomorrow, and a rant forthcoming on why I like to use All Star ballots paper airplanes.

Oh yeah. Johnny Damon is fast. Much faster now then when he was wearing sandles and carpentering.

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By Jeff, 7/6/2004 12:40 pm

Offense
c – Damian Miller 294/350/472 (5.3 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 272/378/431 (4.9 RC/27)

1b – Scott Hatteberg 304/384/474 (7.6 RC/27)
Kevin Millar 268/346/387 (4.1 RC/27)

2b – Mario Scutaro 265/292/358 (3.2 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 259/382/421 (6.2 RC/27)

3b – Mark McLemore 270/381/320 (5.1 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 263/329/404 (4.6 RC/27)

ss – Bobby Crosby 273/331/471 (4.5 RC/27)
Nomar Garciaparra 284/322/444 (5.2 RC/27)

lf – Eric Byrnes 287/353/487 (5.9 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 340/436/656 (8.9 RC/27)

cf – Mark Kotsay 307/363/408 (5.3 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 296/388/450 (6.3 RC/27)

rf – Jermaine Dye 295/353/526 (5.6 RC/27)
Trot Nixon 240/316/460 (2.8 RC/27)

dh – Eurbial Durazo 315/389/500 (6.9 RC/27)
David Ortiz 306/359/609 (7.8 RC/27)

Oakland – 273/341/437 (4.9 RC/game)
Red Sox – 273/354/453 (5.3 RC/game)

Offensive Efficiency:
Oakland – 94.9%
Boston – 96.8%

‘Clutch number’
Oakland – 5.252
Boston – (-11.397)

Stolen Bases
Oakland – (-4.0 BG) 70%
Boston – (-11.7 BG) 66%

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense.

Sacrifices
Oakland – 1.21 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.37 per 550 PA

Pitching
Tuesday – Zito (16.438) vs Wakefield (15.810)
Wednesday – Redman (15.911) vs Martinez (27.818)
Thursday – Harden (17.713) vs Arroyo (13.139)

Rotations
Oakland – 129.240
Boston – 95.403

Bullpens
Oakland – 28.273
Boston – 66.415

Usage
Oakland – 2.3 RpG, 1.10 IPpAPP
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.09 IPpAPP

Best 4 Bullpen-
A’s
Duchscherer – 14.320
Bradford – 3.994
Hammonds – 3.886
Rhodes – 1.977

Red Sox
Foulke – 22.238
Timlin – 13.905
Williamson – 11.452
DiNardo – 5.455

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By Jeff, 7/3/2004 1:59 pm

I haven’t been writing much for one reason.

Disenfranchised with the quality of baseball discussion on this here internet, three people and myself started a new Red Sox/baseball message board.

The board is a screened membership, and the focus will be on intellegent, well-rationed baseball discussion, with a Boston bias. The link?

Blair Wasdin Project

Feel free to sign up.

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By Jeff,

Do you know what sucks worse than losing a game on a Nick Green walk off home run?

Saying how bad Green is right before the home run is hit.

Baseball sucks sometimes.

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By Jeff, 7/2/2004 2:49 pm

Offense
c – Johnny Estrada 335/389/489 (8.9 RC/27)
Jason Varitek 274/384/439 (5.3 RC/27)

1b – Julio Franco 281/358/431 (6.0 RC/27)
David Ortiz 311/363/612 (8.0 RC/27)

2b – Nick Green 287/348/396 (5.5 RC/27)
Mark Bellhorn 255/379/418 (6.0 RC/27)

3b – Chipper Jones 212/329/413 (4.9 RC/27)
Bill Mueller 262/333/414 (4.6 RC/27)

ss – Rafeal Furcal 258/335/391 (4.2 RC/27)
Nomar Garciaparra 235/274/382 (4.3 RC/27)

lf – Charles Thomas 350/381/550 (8.6 RC/27)
Manny Ramirez 340/436/663 (8.8 RC/27)

cf – Andruw Jones 251/341/477 (3.9 RC/27)
Johnny Damon 291/385/442 (6.1 RC/27)

rf – JD Drew 294/425/608 (8.5 RC/27)
Trot Nixon 275/362/550 (4.8 RC/27)

Atlanta – 258/326/417 (4.6 RC/game)
Red Sox – 273/355/455 (5.3 RC/game)

Offensive Efficiency:
Atlanta – 99.8%
Boston – 96.8%

‘Clutch number’
Atlanta – (-1.018)
Boston – (-9.853)

Stolen Bases
Atlanta – (-26.4 BG) 57%
Boston – (-10.1 BG) 67%

BG is Net Bases Gained, based on the assumption that a player must steal at 73% to add runs to the offense.

Sacrifices
Atlanta – 6.71 per 550 PA
Boston – 1.24 per 550 PA

Pitching
Friday – Arroyo (10.299) vs. Wright (15.631)
Saturday – Schilling (33.440) vs. Thomson (7.434)
Sunday – Lowe (4.474) vs. Hampton (-1.369)

Rotations
Atlanta – 66.566
Boston – 90.477

Bullpens
Atlanta – 36.683
Boston – 64.573

Usage
Atlanta – 2.7 RpG, 1.08 IPpAPP
Boston – 2.6 RpG, 1.08 IPpAPP

Best 4 Bullpen-
Braves
Smoltz – 10.012
Alfonseca – 9.814
Reitsma – 8.415
Cruz – 6.812

Red Sox
Foulke – 22.347
Timlin – 13.009
Williamson – 11.335
DiNardo – 4.202

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By Jeff, 6/30/2004 1:01 am

There is a beautiful thing about baseball in the summer time. I use baseball as a therapeutic exorcise. It’s fun to sit back, with beverage, and just take in the game.

Tonight wasn’t baseball, nor was it really relaxing.

When the game was over, I was full of anger at this team. Four men really inspired me to kick puppies, steal candies from babies, and essentially resort to other brands of hooliganism usually reserved for such people as British Soccer fans, and Abu Girab guards.

I’ve never been a fan of Derek Lowe, ever sense I found out about him beating his then-girlfriend, Trinka. I can’t comment rationally on him, so I’ll just say that he pitched like hell tonight. You can’t fall apart because the defense behind you has.

Jason Varitek has a noodle-arm behind the plate, and looked bad on the three strike outs.

Kevin Millar needs to slug over .400 to be a useful first baseman. I believe that part of the reason why there has been some trouble in scoring runs is that the 5-6 hitters haven’t really been hitting the ball for extra-bases when Bellhorn/Ortiz/Manny are on base. Millar was part of that problem. I really should write a column on him soon.

Nomar Garciaparra is the most frustrating great player in the majors. In 2001, he had surgery on his wrist. At the time of the surgery, he was a top 10 hitter in the majors. Unfortunately for Red Sox fans, and Nomar himself, the split wrist sapped him of his ability to drive almost any pitch thrown to him (if you missed it, he was like a line-drive version of Vlad Guerrero, only you couldn’t get him out with off speed pitches up). He still tries to drive everything though. Because of that, the end result are popups to the outfield, and groundballs pulled.

Nomar doesn’t have a plan. He doesn’t wait for his pitch, and he tries to pull everything now. He really hasn’t ever had a plan, but his natural talent was enough to cover that. It’s not anymore. His bat isn’t so quick, and his wrists aren’t so strong. In two years, he went from a top 10 hitter in the MLB (2000) to a top 40 hitter in the AL (2003).

His fielding has been poor as well, but I think that might have something to do with his ankle injury, rather than a disintegration in skills. I’m really starting to wish the ARod/Magglio deals went through though.

Despite all that crap that came out of this game, there are some things to keep in perspective. The Red Sox have played some crappy ball, but teams play crappy baseball throughout the season anyway. Take 2003 for example.

On June 30th, the Sox were 47-33, 4 games behind hated obsession New York Yankees. This year, they are 42-33. You want to know a common bond? They were in second place, and tied for the Wild Card lead both years. When I was really losing control after the game, my friend Sam put things in perspective. He said “The Sox went 18-19 from May 1 to June 12. They’ll be fine”.

I’m convinced now that he’s right.

Tomorrow there is Leiber vs. Wakefield in a game of the unimpressive starters. If things hold in Leiber’s elbow that is. That game should be a toss-up with a slight edge to the Yankees because of the home field thing. Thursday, the tables should turn with Brad Halsey against some fellow the Sox picked up a few years ago from Montreal. I like the Sox on Thursday.

I just need to keep repeating that the Sox will be fine. After all, the season is 162 games, not 75.