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By Mullet, 12/19/2005 3:11 pm

If you can see this, then you know we’re back up and running. Took a little bit longer than expected, but the new and improved site should make things a whole lot easier on me, which means things will be easier for you too.

Comments are open. URLs should be a bit easier to remember now (everything is off of the deweyshouse.com domain). If you subscribed to our RSS feed, you’ll need to update it.

It also means I’ll spend less time working on tech stuff and more time giving you my wonderful thoughts on baseball. For instance, why I think Sully is slightly wrong about the Beckett and Marte deals.

Comments (1)

By Mullet, 11/25/2005 10:31 am

Just a quick note: the Sox managed to get Guillermo Mota added to the Beckett deal, which is a good thing just in the “let’s have another solid arm for the pen” way. I don’t expect Mota to regain the amazing numbers he put up in ’03 or even the good numbers he put up in ’04. He’s more likely to just be an league average arm, but that’s better than a bunch of the arms the Sox ran through the pen last year, so that’s ok with me.

With each bit of good news, comes a bit of bad news. Chris Snow and Gordon Edes, the Globe’s two main Sox writers, had managed to stay above the “Sox-Globe improprieties” mess. They have both proven to be solid, talented writers on occasion, and certainly competent the rest of the time.

But when you see trade “analysis” like in today’s Globe, you certainly wonder if it is simply an impossibility at the Globe to offer a critical eye to anything the Sox do these days.

The bit that rubbed me wrong?

And so, the deal, after this major permutation, reads like this: Beckett (the new ace of the Sox staff), Lowell (the new starting third baseman, and a Gold Glove winner in 2005), and Mota (one of baseball’s premier setup men in 2003 and ’04) for Double A shortstop Hanley Ramírez, Double A righthander Anibal Sanchez, and Single A righthanders Jesus Delgado and Garcia.

Beckett’s very good, and I like him an awful lot. That being said, he’s never in his career had numbers good enough to be considered an “ace.” He could certainly, and likely will, continue to develop a bit, but if he’s the ace of the staff, the Sox will have one of the worst #1 starters amongst the baseball elites.

The kicker, of course, is Lowell. Right now, he shouldn’t be penciled in for a roster spot, let alone to be the starting third baseman. This is a guy who hit like a crippled Pokey Reese last year. Worse than Bellhorn, or Renteria, or Millar, or anybody the Sox ran out there basically. A sub-.300 OBP, a sub-.370 SLG, and he’s our starting 3B? There’s a whole lot of evidence that he’s done, cooked, busted. And the Globe is trying to spin it like the Sox acquired Scott Rolen. That’s just downright dishonest.

This is an ok trade for the Sox. It’s not a steal. We gave up 2 very highly touted prospects, and 2 high ceiling prospects, for a really good pitcher who may never be great and may never be completely healthy; an aging, declining, possibly cooked, yet still expensive 3B; and a setup guy who had 2 good years in a really good pitching environment, and a whole lot of mediocre years.

It’s a win now move, but this isn’t a steal, it’s not a definite “win,” and it’s not even a no-brainer. Quite frankly, I wonder if this is a move that Theo wouldn’t have stayed away from, as it thins out the farm system a good deal and adds in a couple of players (Mota, Lowell) who’ll probably not be better than the younger counterparts we already have (Youkilis, Delcarmen/Hansen/DiNardo), but “savvy vets” so Terry Francona will feel comfortable using them.

Comments (1)

By Mullet, 11/1/2005 9:08 pm

By now, you’ve read one of the billion commentaries on the Theo Epstein/Larry Lucchino situation. Bill Simmons takes an interesting perspective, but really doesn’t have the analytical baseball skills to make a strong case. The Curly Haired Boyfriend tries to cover his ass and salvage what’s left of his already tattered credibility. Bob Ryan gets to play the hero for the Globe. Tony Mazz gets to be right for once in his life.

But none of these articles really address what I think is the most interesting angle on this entire debacle. Simmons addresses it tangentially, but really misses the point. The question at hand: which decisions in the 2005 season were driven solely by Theo Epstein and which decisions were driven by Larry Lucchino?

When you look at the decision making process, starting pretty much from the last out of the World Series to the last out against the White Sox, it wasn’t very “sabermetric.” It didn’t seem to be statistically-minded or exploiting marketing inefficiencies. It seemed … pedestrian. Run of the mill. Similar to what every other GM in baseball would do with a payroll of $160 million: identify the “best” player and sign them for as much as it takes, even if it really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Stick with “proven veterans” over rookies to maintain chemistry and that veteran presence.

It certainly didn’t seem like the work of the boy genius of the Sox. Now we know that it might not have been. The reason it seemed pedestrian is that it might have been the work of a guy who, at least in his last few stops, seems to be a pretty pedestrian baseball mind.

Back in July, a little bit before the trade deadline, I looked at the Sox as a team weighing performance vs. chemistry. My conclusion?

In each of these situations, it seems to me that the Sox front office has weighed the clubhouse effect and likely usage patterns by their manager, and determined that the incremental improvement by the newer player would not be enough to make the move. It’s a seemingly odd stance for a sabermetrically-inclined organization, but I have to believe this is the case. The front office simply is too smart to not believe that Petagine+Youklis is a net improvement over Millar+Olerud, that Ambres > Kapler/Youkilis, that DiNardo > Halama+Embree. So, they must have assigned some value to the clubhouse contributions of certain players and to the value in not overturning a clubhouse for incremental gains.

It’s hard for a stathead like me to swallow, but I’d much rather believe that this is the case. The alternative is believing that the Sox have started to reduce their reliance on performance analysis or that they’re more worried about the PR effect of dumping a popular player than improving the team. Neither of those options are palatable to me.

Well, now it’s easier to believe that the Sox were more worried about the PR and chemistry effects than on making the tough decisions that a good baseball organization makes. Those types of PR moves seem to be the hallmark of Larry Lucchino’s career, and his fingerprints have been all over the exits of Pedro and Nomar. Now his fingerprints are all over the exit of Theo Epstein. Soon they’ll be all over the exit of Manny Ramirez.

Are things all doom and gloom? Certainly not. Maybe those decisions I mentioned in July really were Theo’s decisions. If that’s the case, he didn’t deserve control of the baseball operations group. I don’t think it’s very likely though. I think you simply had a case of a promising baseball mind attempting to do things a new way, and the power and prestige that came with that rubbed his boss the wrong way. It’s a sad way for a hometown savior to leave the organization, but, to me, it’s no worse than when Pedro left or when Manny will leave.

Some people won’t see the parallels in the Pedro, Manny, and Theo situations. Those amongst you who are keen enough to read between the lines certainly will. All 3 had their paths out of Boston slicked with the oil of leaked stories and blind items in Boston Globe articles. The same Boston Globe that owns part of the Boston Red Sox. The same Globe that employs Dan Shaugnessy, a long time friend of Larry Lucchino. The same Globe that is now under fire from all sides for its obvious improprieties.

It’s an all around depressing story. The loss of a bright, young GM. The cat finally coming out of the bag on the improper relations between the Globe and the Sox. The lack of a spine shown by John Henry, and the lack of morals shown by Larry Lucchino.

But mostly, it’s just the sense of impeding dread that the Red Sox will bring in a retread GM who’ll help the team tread water at 88-90 wins for the next 5 seasons, lining the pockets of ownership, but never getting over the hump. With a fervent fan base like the Sox have, it’s a pretty prudent business decision. And, after all, isn’t that why John Henry has Larry Lucchino?

Comments (2)

By Mullet, 10/8/2005 7:13 pm

I’m playing around with some layout/look/feel type stuff while I’ve got some free time (you know with the Sox being eliminated and the Yanks/Angels rained out). So if stuff keeps changing or stops working or anything, it should be fixed momentarily.

If you’ve got strong opinions about the way it looks, leave a comment or email me. In the mean time, pardon the construction.

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By Mullet, 10/6/2005 6:33 pm

Apologies for the late recap. Work is kicking our behinds, and combine that with bitch fight between two of the Internet backbone providers leaving me without the ability to access this fair site from the comfy confines of my office cubicle, well, we’re lucky to get this one out at all.

As you all know, the Good Sox lost 5-4 to the Bad Sox due to a single inning outburst by said Bad Sox.

The good:
-The top of the order came through big, even if it was only for 4 runs.
-David Wells pitcher pretty well(s) with the exception of a handful of pitches in the 5th.
-Jon Papelbon continues to get it done in relief.

The bad:
-Tony Graffanino’s error.
-David Wells’ curveball to Tadahito Iguchi.

The Sox were an error and a hanging curve away from coming back with the series knotted. It’s disappointing they couldn’t muster a single run over the game’s final 6 frames, but the White Sox pitching staff isn’t exactly a pushover.

It is what it is. The Sox come home to face Chicago for two games at Fenway. They’ve got the two most veteran pitchers going for them, in a place where they score a million runs, in front of a group of fans who will make the park electric hours before the first pitch. Win and you get to play another game. It’s really that simple.

The offday gives Terry Francona some extra options in the pen, as everyone but Curt Schilling is available. These are the situations where you don’t worry about Game 4 or Game 5. You pull out every stop and deal with tomorrow tomorrow.

Rest up folks. Things are just getting started.

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By Mullet, 10/4/2005 8:27 pm

Los Angeles Angels (AL West Champions, 95-67) vs. New York Yankees (AL East Champions, 95-67)

A whole lotta folks are picking the Angels to represent the AL in the World Series. They’ve quietly put together one of the better starting pitching staffs in baseball (in ’05, at least), combined with a pretty solid relief corps anchored by Scot Shields and Francisco Rodriguez. And, oh yeah, they’ve got that Vladimir fellow, too. Guerrero is the solid bat in the middle of a pretty pedestrian offense. They face a Yankees team that sucked for the first half of the season, then through some magic by GM Brian Cashman and some logical bounces from some underperforming players, went on a huge run to take the AL East from the Sox and make the playoffs for the 1000th time. The Yankees have an offense that rivals the Sox, with A-Rod, Gary Sheffield, and a rejuvenated (naturally?) Jason Giambi raking away. Unfortunately for the Yankees, they’ve also got a pitching staff that rivals the Sox, saved only by ridiculously out of line performances by the in-season arrivals of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon. The bullpen is anchored by Mariano Rivera–who some folks are convinced is an MVP candidate even if he’s not remotely close to one (more on that in the weeks to come).

This series is, as much as the Red Sox- White Sox, a battle of offense vs. defense. The Angels really solid pitching and defense against the Yankees slightly-less-than-juggernaut offense. It is hard to imagine the Yankees suspect pitching staff keeping Vladimir Guerrero and the rest of the mediocre Angels offense from scoring at least a few runs a game. On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine that even the great Angels staff will be able to prevent the Yankees from plating at least a few runs a game. It’s strength vs. strength. Weakness vs. weakness. It may simply come down to the team making the fewest mistakes taking the series.

Chicago White Sox (AL Central Champions, 99-63) vs. Boston Red Sox (AL Wild Card, 95-67)
I really wish I had written this preview this morning. Sully covered the White Sox well. You know the Sox. Awful pitching, awesome offense.

Today, the awful pitching outdid the offense.

Comments (1)

By Mullet,

Atlanta Braves (NL East Champions, 90-72) vs. Houston Astros (NL Wild Card, 89-73)
For the 143rd straight season, the Atlanta Braves won the NL East and are headed to the playoffs. While normally folks associate the Braves with fine, fine pitching, this season was as much a result of their bats. The Braves are an interesting mix of young and old players, with young starters Adam LaRoche, Johnny Estrada, and rookie trio Jeff Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, and Ryan Langerhans all seeing significant time. The Braves pitching staff is more mature, lead by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, while the surprising Jorge Sosa rounds out the top 3. Hudson and Smoltz are legitimate starters, but Sosa (and the rest of the Braves staff) seemed to do it more with smoke and mirrors given their iffy peripheral numbers.

Houston vaulted into the playoffs with a second half surge for the second year in a row. Surprsingly for a team that plays in such an offense-inducing park, the Astros lead all of baseball in run prevention, allowing just 609 runs on the season. Why did they struggle to make the playoffs? They were pretty good at run prevention on the offensive side, as well. The 3 players with the most at-bats on the Astros have OBP that look like this: .324, .323, .288. That simply won’t get it done. The Astros have 3 real hitters in Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, and Lance Berkman. That’s all they’ve got on offense. And it proved to be all they would need, as Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Andy Pettitte all had phenomenal seasons on the mound, with Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, and Chad Qualls making the final few innings of games very tough for opposing offenses.

Basically, this series is a balanced team vs. the best pitching in baseball. It’s hard to see the Braves offense giving Oswalt or Clemens trouble …. but the Braves won the season series 5-1. If Hudson and Smoltz can keep the Astros pitiful offense quiet for 5 or 6 innings, the Braves should be able to squeak out enough runs to win the series. Most prognosticators seem to be going with the Astros as the trendy pick, but they don’t have Carlos Beltran this year, and I don’t think an offense that scored less runs than the Mariners can win the World Series.

St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central Champions, 100-62) vs. San Diego Padres (NL West Champions, 82-80)
The best team in baseball for the past 2 seasons against a team that finished 2 games above .500 in the weakest division in baseball. On paper or in pixels, that sounds like a mismatch.

It is.

The Padres don’t score or prevent runs very well, even if you take into account playing in Petco. It’s Brian Giles and a bunch of other guys. Not a single player slugged .500 for the Pads. Not a single player hit 20 HRs for the Pads. Their offense is really just sad. The pitching staff is Jake Peavy and a good bullpen. Akinori Otsuka, Rudy Seanez, Chris Hammond, Scott Linebrink — all guys who should help shut down the St. Louis offense … once they’ve had their way with the Padres starting pitching.

St. Louis is a juggernaut. They score runs (3rd in the NL). They stop runs (2nd in the NL). They have a lineup that will kill you 1-5, before you get down to the bottom of the order where Tony LaRussa likes to play around with guys who don’t really do anything that well. The pitching staff is surprisingly strong, led by probably Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, and then 4 guys who all threw about 200 innings with ERAs from 3.57-4.13. There isn’t a pitcher in the bullpen who will go into the NLDS with an ERA over 3.50. They are, from top to bottom, the strongest and most balanced team in the playoffs.

Why then should St. Louis be worried? For starters, they lost the season series to the Padres. They’ve also go Tony LaRussa as a manager, which isn’t always a great thing as he’ll end up batting his pitcher 5th at some point in this series. But it’s really hard to imagine the Padres overcoming the Cards unless their offense kicks it into some here to unforeseen gear.

——–
Back with the AL previews later.

Comments (4)

By Mullet, 10/1/2005 9:38 pm

I think it’s probably still too recent and raw for me to give a good, rational recap of the Sox 8-4 loss to the Yankees that put the Yankees into the playoffs and allowed them to clinch the AL East … again. Honestly, if I tried to recap it I’d just descend into a series of expletives and long, rambling text about how reprehensible and apalling it was for a team to walk into a season-altering game against their rivals–at home, no less–and play such an abomination of a game.

I’d probably spend paragraphs on manager Terry Francona and general manager Theo Epstein and their inability to make in-season adjustments. That would segue into a tome on how sad and ridiculous it is that Kevin Millar was allowed to bat 3 times and play the field in such an important game. More expletives would be used.

Actually, for Millar, I’d probably have a whole paragraph or two of just expletives and expletives combined in new and exciting ways. And maybe even some words that aren’t expletives used as expletives. I think it’d be fun to use the word “ellipsis” as a derogatory term towards Millar.

I’d have some good words to say about the heroes. Guys like Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, who seem to bring it when it matters. And for a new guy like Tony Graffanino, who’s evolving into a similar role. I’d even throw in some good words about the young guys, the DiNardos and Hansens and Papelbons who’ve had to fight to get playing time and have really done nothing but get it done.

That would lead me into more cursing of Francona for refusing to use them (for the most part).

But, I’m not going to write that post.

Instead, I’m going to treat you to some thoughts on what it means to win. Is it enough for the Sox to back into the playoffs, if Cleveland manages to lose again tomorrow to a White Sox team that’s trying to hand them the game? Does it matter that the Sox aren’t the AL East champs, even if they finish with the same record as the Yankees? Should we even care, given that the Sox won the World Series just a short 12 months ago?

In order, the answers are no, yes, and hell yes!

If you don’t root for your team to win every game in every season, what kind of a fan are you? Sure, it’s not rational to think your team will win every game. And, as a manager, you certainly can’t burn out your guys trying to go balls out to squeeze out every win.

But the goal you set at the beginning of the year is to win the World Series, and when you’re in Boston, with the resources available to you, anything short of that is a defeat. A nauseating, pit of the stomach defeat. Each defeat along the way is a small portion of that pain. Some losses hurt more than others.

Losing the AL East crown on your home field with the playoffs on the line to a team that should have been dead a long time ago is like getting hit by a train.

Some people are arguing and will argue that today’s loss doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things if the Sox still make the playoffs. Of course it means something! How can a rational competitive baseball fan, player, manager, or team say with a straight face that just making the playoffs is enough?! Winning the division would have meant something, and losing it does mean something.

Now, tomorrow is another must win game. The Sox win and they’re in. And that’s the first step towards redemption. Towards redeeming themselves after today’s debacle. Towards reclaiming a little pride after losing the division. Towards not losing the season. Towards the only victory that really matters. Towards the World Series. Towards another championship.

Anything less is unacceptable.

Comments (1)

By Mullet, 9/30/2005 6:19 am

The Yankees were pounding the lifeless Orioles. The Indians were beating up on old friend Casey Fossum. And the Red Sox were losing 4-1.

And I’m sitting in the local eatery, eating a sub and getting updates from the guy behind the counter because my power went out.

Sully mentions liking metaphors. Maybe the power going out is a nice metaphor for what’s happened to the Sox lately. Lifeless. No energy. A distinct lack of power.

In the top of the 6th, the power arrived to my home.

In the bottom of the 6th, the power came back on in the Sox. You just can’t help but feel optimistic.

Three men have seemingly come through time and time again for the Sox, as they barrel down the home stretch of the 2005 season. Two of those players are guys you’d expect. One is 24 and was pitching in Portland just a couple of months ago. All three were instrumental in recharging the batteries of the wilting, lifeless Red Sox last night.

In the bottom of the 6th inning, the Sox trailed 4-1. Matt Clement had pitched one of his alright, but completely inefficient games, throwing 96 pitches through 5 innings, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks. The Sox trailed 4-1 and looked like they would sleepwalk to a 2-game deficit in the AL East (and a 1-game deficit in the Wild Card). But David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez would not comply. Ortiz singles to lead off the inning. Manny Ramirez strides to the plate, goes to an 0-1 count, and then promptly is Manny being Manny–he rips a pitch to right that lands in the Jays’ bullpen.

4-3.

With 1 out in the top of the 7th, Jonathan Papelbon comes into the game. He sandwiches a couple of outs around a double to get the Sox through the inning. When the Sox go scoreless in the bottom of the inning, Papelbon comes back out in the 8th and needs just 7 pitches to get the Jays in order and keep the Sox within striking distance.

Still, the Sox trailed by a run. So David Ortiz decided to add to his resume. On the 3rd pitch of the bottom of the 8th, Papi deposited a pitch into the Monster seats, sending Fenway into bedlam and started people around the country chanting “M-V-P.” Manny followed with a walk and then hustled to 3rd with a head first slide on a Varitek single. The power outage still affected the bottom of the order though. John Olerud, Bill Mueller, and Trot Nixon were unable to get the run home from 3rd with 0 outs.

Francona wisely stuck with Papelbon. Papelbon got a couple of groundouts, the second on a nifty play by Bill Mueller that had Papelbon off the back of the mound pointing and yelling excitedly. Maybe it’s his youthful exuberance. Maybe it’s because he hasn’t “been there before.” But it sure was nice to see someone on the Red Sox recognizing the importance of the moment. With 2 outs, he missed his spot a tiny bit, allowing Eric Hinske to line a double down the left field line. But, Papelbon is a battler. He came right back and got Gregg Zaun to pop out to keep the game tied heading into the bottom of the 9th.

All you needed to know at that moment was if a single batter reached, David Ortiz would come to the plate.

Johnny Damon singled with 1 out. Edgar Renteria walked. David Ortiz came to bat with gargantuan MVP chants ringing out. Toronto closer Miguel Batista worked around Papi a bit, with Ortiz taking a couple of suspect hacks. With the count 3-2, Ortiz lined a pitch into CF, right around the overshift. Damon raced around and was greeted by a throng of teammates at home plate.

5-4.

The power’s back on at Fenway.

————————————————-
Tonight’s pitching matchups:
Yankees @ Sox: Wang vs. Wells
White Sox @ Cleveland: Buehrle vs. Millwood

Comments (2)

By Mullet, 9/29/2005 5:28 pm

I’m going to be on Radio Open Source in about an hour to talk about the Red Sox and Yankees and whatever else might come up. It’s one of the premier public radio shows, airs on WGBH here in Boston, gets streamed over the internet, and is available in podcast form (my preferred format).

Jay Jaffe of Futility Infielder and Cliff Corcoran of Bronx Banter will be on as well. They’re both far better writers and far more widely known, so I’m definitely playing the role of David in this one.

Both Jeff and Sully probably would have been better options, but I get the gig because I’ve got the sexy radio voice. And because I was available.

Listen in and let me know how I do. I’ll try not to embarrass Red Sox Nation.

Comments (3)

By Mullet, 9/28/2005 7:07 am

Game 1:
Starting the day a half-game back of the Yankees, the Red Sox were hoping to pull even sometime before 4pm. And they did, on the strength of another fantastic Tim Wakefield outing. Wakefield picked up his 16th win, throwing 7 innings of 3 hit ball, giving up a single unearned run, as the Sox got out to an early lead and coasted to a 3-1 win over Dave Bush and the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Sox struck right away, with a Johnny Damon single, followed by an Edgar Renteria double. David Ortiz moved both runners along, scoring Damon with a ground out. Manny Ramirez singled to center driving in Renteria with what would turn out to be the winning run. The Sox would pick up their 3rd run in the 5th inning on back-to-back doubles by Renteria and Ortiz. That would be it for the offense–6 hits on the day, 5 from the top four hitters (the 6th from Alex Cora).

After Wakefield departed at the end of the 7th, Terry Francona went to Jonathan Papelbon for the 8th. Papelbon struggled a bit, putting men on first and third with one out before getting Vernon Wells to foul out and striking out Shea Hillenbrand to end the threat. Papelbon gave way to Mike Timlin who closed the game out, allowing a lone baserunner on a Corey Koskie single.

At approximately 3:28, the Red Sox and Yankees were once again tied atop the AL East.

Enough cannot be said about what Tim Wakefield has meant to the Red Sox down the stretch. His September ERA dropped below 2.00 after yesterday’s performance, and he’s thrown a much needed 40+ innings in September, giving the bullpen some needed rest. He’ll be back on short rest on Saturday and may be the Sox only consistent starter heading into the Yankees series (and, possibly, the post-season).

Game 2:
After all of the uproar about who likes or doesn’t like Curt Schilling, the opportunity arose for Mr. Schilling to end the issue. With the Indians and Yankees both falling behind early, the Red Sox had a chance to move a game up in both the East and Wild Card hunts.

Once again, the Sox struck first, scoring 3 runs in the bottom of the 3rd off of Jays’ starter Gustavo Chacin. The Sox offense, as it often does, strung together a series of hits (a Tony Graffanino single, Damon double, Renteria double, Ortiz single, and Ramirez single), plating 3 runs and exciting the Fenway faithful, who’d seen Schilling give up just 2 singles to that point.

After 3 innings, the Sox were up and Schilling had allowed just 2 hits. In the top of the 4th, Schilling gave up a single to Corey Koskie, quickly got two strikeouts, and then made a single mistake to Gregg Zaun. Zaun capitalized, cutting the Sox’ lead to 3-2.

The Sox picked up a couple more runs in the 4th, when Bill Mueller scored on a Trot Nixon double. Nixon then scored on back-to-back singles by Johnny Damon and Edgar Renteria, making the score 5-2 Sox. The top four in the Sox batting order had a stellar double header, going 13 for 32 with all 8 RBI. The rest of the Sox lineup had 5 hits combined in the two games.

Leading 5-2, with the Indians trailing and the Yankees in a battle against the suddenly frisky Orioles, Schilling went back to the mound to try and help the Sox to a 1 game lead. He got hit hard in the 5th, allowing 3 consecutive hits (and a sac fly) which cut the Sox lead down to 5-4, before striking out Koskie and Hillenbrand to end the inning. At this point, it was pretty obvious that it was not going to be a great night for Schilling, who simply didn’t have command of his pitches. As captured by Chris Snow in today’s Globe:

Succinctly, Schilling said, ”My fastball command has been just horse [crap].”

Francona ran Schilling back out for the 6th inning, trying to avoid the bullpen more than really expecting much out of Schilling, but this would prove to be costly. Schilling coasted through the 6th with a 1-2-3 inning, picking up his 8th strikeout. This performance convinced Francona to send Schilling back out for the 7th–just one decision by Francona that will be second guessed for a long time.

Schilling gave up 3 singles to the Jays, allowing his 5th run of the night and tying the game. Francona finally went to Mike Myers (arguably one batter too late). Myers failed at his job, walking Corey Koskie. Myers gave way to Chad Bradford, who got Hillenbrand and Hinske to end the inning. Bradford would start the 8th facing Gregg Zaun, a switch hitter. Bradford makes lefties look like David Ortiz and walked Zaun, before giving up a single to Reed Johnson. After an Aaron Hill sacrifice, Francona went to Craig Hansen.

It’s hard to know what to think about that. I’ve argued that it’s important to go to your best arms when you’re in high leverage situations, and even though Hansen is young, he seems to have electric stuff. That being said, this was a situation that cried out for Papelbon or Timlin, the Sox top 2 relievers. It’s a tie game with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out. That’s about as high leverage as it gets.

Unfortunately, either Francona had decided Papelbon and Timlin weren’t available after pitching in the first game, or he simply wasn’t going to use them if the Sox weren’t protecting a lead. Hansen gave up a sac fly, scoring the Blue Jays 6th run. The Blue Jays also got to Hansen for a single and a walk, but Hansen was able to escape unharmed.

The Sox went scoreless in the bottom of the 8th. Tony Graffanino hit into a double play on which he was thrown out by at least 30 feet–meaning his injury is probably more severe than most think right now. Down by a run, once again Francona was faced with a decision on who to bring in to keep the game close.

Francona decided on Chad Harville, who’s probably the worst pitcher in the bullpen. Harville walked the first batter he faced, gave up a double, got a foul out, then hit a batter to load the bases. It was an awful performance from a pitcher who had no business being in a close game when there were a number of better options (Papelbon, Timline, Gonzalez, Delcarmen, DiNardo). Francona’s lack of faith in DiNardo and Delcarmen is troubling and may well be his worst trait as a manager.

After the beaning, Francona finally removed Harville, going with Jeremi Gonzalez. Gonzalez gave up a sac fly, scoring Toronto’s 7th and final run.

The Sox top 3 hitters went down with a nary a whisper. Sox lose, 7-5.

The silver lining to our dark cloud? Both the Yankees and Indians lost, leaving all 3 teams in a dead heat at 92-65.

The pitching matchups tonight:
Toronto-Ted Lilly vs. Boston-Bronson Arroyo
Tampa Bay-Seth McClung vs. Cleveland-Cliff Lee
New York-Shawn Chacon vs. Baltimore-Daniel Cabrera

Sully should be by this afternoon with a little something to tide you over until game time.

Comments (2)

By Mullet, 9/27/2005 11:04 am

If Curt Schilling’s 2004 performance was enough to earn him the good will of the media and fans, to the point of absolving him of guilt when he says/does things that are detrimental to the team, surely the career Red Sox performances of the oft-criticized Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez have done enough to similarly absolve them of guilt when they say/do things that are detrimental to the team.

All three players were members of “The 25.” Both Pedro and Schill pitched with significant injuries in must win games in the playoffs (surely you haven’t forgotten this game). All three players were/are/have been, during their stretches in Boston, amongst the elite at their positions. All are paid well/overpaid (Schilling is earning about $500k less than Martinez this year). Two of the three are outspoken.

Yet two of the players have been degraded, demeaned, and questioned by the legitimate press. One hasn’t been. Two of the players have been pilloried by a tabloid-style site I won’t link to since I refuse to give it credence. One hasn’t been.

It is that simple. That is the double standard the unnamed player was referring to.

I’m not in favor of rooting against Curt Schilling. My last ticket of the year was to last night’s rain out, and I’m sorely disappointed I won’t get to see Schilling pitch. As a baseball fan, it is a joy to watch him play the game. But he is the beneficiary of a double standard and I don’t think it is even arguable.

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By Mullet, 9/25/2005 9:12 am

You could almost hear the cacophony of keyboards as all of the Boston scribes lined up to rip Terry Francona for bringing in Craig Hansen. It’s a situation where Francona almost can’t win. If he doesn’t bring in Hansen, everyone chides him for not having faith in the kids. If he brings in Hansen, and he gives up a run, people will wonder why a kid was in such a tight spot.

With Matt Clement having given the Sox six of the least efficient shutout innings in history (116 pitches, only 65 strikes, 4 hits, 6 BB), Francona brought on wunderkind Craig Hansen to face 9-1-2 of the Orioles order. Hansen quickly struck out Luis Matos. Bernie Castro followed with a high chopper that Bill Mueller simply had no play on. Melvin Mora came up, saw a fastball and a really poor slider (Hansen had no offspeed stuff yesterday) and then turned on a 95 mph fastball and deposited just a couple of rows into the left field bleachers.

2-2. Tie game.

Honestly, I expected Francona to go get Hansen right there. But he stuck with him. Hansen got Miguel Tejada to ground out to short. I expected Francona to go get Hansen again. But, once again, he stuck with him, making the right decision (in my opinion). Hansen faced the lefty Jay Gibbons, even with Mike Myers up and ready in the pen. With so little time left in the regular season, it is imperative to determine if Hansen can be effective against righties and lefties. Hansen got Gibbons to chop a lazy groundball up the middle, but Hansen couldn’t get his glove on it and it bounced into CF. Javy Lopez then ripped a ball to the gap in left-center, but Manny Ramirez made a fantastic defensive play, cutting the ball off and getting it into the infield quickly, holding Gibbons at 3rd. That ended Hansen’s night. Mike Myers came on and got BJ Surhoff to end the inning.

Hansen’s line score isn’t good. But Francona proved that he was willing to go with the best arm in the ‘pen, regardless of age or tenure. That’s not something he’s been willing to do much this season and it was refreshing. It was also the right decision. Sometimes it just doesn’t work out.

The Sox went scoreless in the top of the 8th, and Francona went to wunderkind #2, Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon gave up a single to Chris Gomez. The Orioles tried to move pinch runner Ed Rogers to 2nd, but David Newhan (who famously hates Ottawa) popped up a bunt for the first out. Papelbon battled with Luis Matos, finally striking him out, with the strikeout punctuated by Jason Varitek catching Ed Rogers stealing 2nd base. Going to the best arm in the pen, regardless of age, is going to work more often than not.

Bill Mueller started the 9th for the Sox, popping out to second. Not a great at-bat by the Pro. Trot Nixon scooted a groundball into the hole at SS, placing it where even he could beat it out. Tony Graffanino poked a ball to right, moving Nixon to 3rd (before being replaced by pinch runner Adam Stern). B.J. Ryan walked Johnny Damon on 4 pitches to load the bases.

At this point, I actually lost a little hope. It’s not something I’m proud of. But I know I wasn’t the only one envisioning creative ways Edgar Renteria could hit into a double play. I was partial to the 1-2-3 double play. It’s simply how things have been going for the Sox.

Renteria, however, had other things in mind. He looped the first pitch from Ryan into short left field, scoring Nixon and the hustling Adam Stern, giving the Sox a 4-2 lead and temporarily removing the giant fork from his back.

Francona went to Mike Timlin for the 9th. Timlin has been shaky lately, not because he doesn’t have a “closer’s mentality” but because he’s 59 years old and has appeared in more games hits year than at any point in his career. Timlin walked the pesky Bernie Castro, who was then doubled home by Jay Gibbons with 2 outs. Javy Lopez then drove a ball to deep right, which I’m sure allowed Jerry Trupiano to give a heart attack to any of the folks listening on radio, but landed nicely in Nixon’s glove just a few feet short of the track.

4-3. Ball game. Back in first place.

Both the Sox and Yankees have 8 games left. People are dreaming up dramatic scenarios that have the Sox and Yankees tied and in a playoff, or have the season decided on the last day of the season.

Fuck that.

I want the Sox to go 5-0 and the Yankees 0-5 leading into the last series of the year. I want it to be over. I want the Sox to start Lenny DiNardo, Jeremi Gonzalez, and Kevin Millar in those last 3 games. I want them to be meaningless. I don’t care about romanticism or drama or redemption. Those are the things that old people want so they can tell their kids stories or so they can come up with another lame book to foist on the good people of Red Sox Nation.

The rest of us? We just like to win.

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By Mullet, 9/22/2005 7:41 am

Just like that, the Sox are out of the playoffs. Or they would be, if the season ended today.

It’s hard to be rational about this team, given the way they’ve played as of late, but I will do my best. Tim Wakefield gave another pretty solid performance, seven full innings of 2 run ball before running into trouble in the 8th. It would have been seven full innings of 1 run ball, but Alex Cora and Kevin Millar combined on a beautiful error in the 2nd inning that allowed a run to score.

The 8th, however, is where it all came apart. After allowing a hit, a wild pitch, and then hitting a batter, Wakefield induced a double play ball from Carl Crawford (a feat in itself). With 2 outs and a runner on 3rd, Wake gave up a single making it a 4-3 game. Terry Francona came out, signalled to the pen, and out strode Mike Timlin. It took Timlin five hitters to get that 3rd out. 2 singles, a double, and a triple later, the Devil Rays had a 7-4 lead and were looking to knock the Sox out of 1st place.

The Sox countered with David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and John Olerud. Danys Baez vs. the heart of the Sox order. Ortiz grounded out on the first pitch. Ramirez struck out in a five pitch at-bat. John Olerud flew out just five pitches later.

And that was it. 11 pitches and the Sox are out of the playoffs. At least for today.

Final Score: 7-4 Rays.

It’s not over yet. I’m not going to give you the Animal House routine, but it is certainly not over. Regardless, this team, particularly its on- and off-the-field management, are going to be open to a lot of criticism and questioning when the regular season ends. I still stand by what I said back in July: this team (front office/manager) has put a lot of weight into the idea that chemistry is important to winning. Right now, I’d just rather have talent.

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By Mullet, 9/19/2005 6:30 pm

While not quite as bright as Hansen coming up, Hanley Ramirez has also been activated for today’s game.

Hopefully we drop a 10 spot in the first and can see Hanley get some action.

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By Mullet, 9/18/2005 9:28 am

With the Yankees closing out their 1-0 victory over the Blue Jays, the Red Sox stood just a single game above the dreaded Bombers. A loss to the Athletics would leave the Red Sox just a half-game up in the AL East, and with the hard charging Indians playing the lowly Royals, a loss would also mean losing ground in the Wild Card hunt.

So, you’d expect this to be a game where the Red Sox bats wake up, pounding Oakland into submission and maintaining the 1.5 game lead in the East. Unfortunately for the Sox, Danny Haren pitched a gem.

Fortunately for the Sox, so did Bronson Arroyo.

More fortunately, the Red Sox have Manny Ramirez, the forgotten man in the David Ortiz-for-MVP hype.

Bronson Arroyo out-dueled Danny Haren, allowing the As just 3 hits and a single run over 7 innings, while Jon Papelbon and Mike Timlin brought back echoes of last October’s Timlin/Keith Foulke combo, giving up just a single hit over the final 2 innings. Manny Ramirez contributed the offense, driving in both runs, as the Sox won a nailbiter 2-1.

Arroyo cruised through the first 7, only getting into trouble in the 5th inning when he gave up his 1 run, working out of a couple of jams. The As threatened again in the 8th due to Edgar Renteria’s inexplicable 28th error of the season. Jason Kendall laced a double to right-center. Trot Nixon tracked it down, threw a pretty solid strike to second base, where Renteria simply didn’t catch it. Even more inexplicably, veteran defensive presence John Olerud wasn’t backing up the play, allowing the ball to bounce harmlessly to the middle of the infield while Kendall hustled to third. Thankfully, the unflappable Papelbon got Kotsay to fly out to end the inning. Mike Timlin pitched a flawless 9th, including a game-ending strikeout on Jay Payton, which was cathartic for some portion of Red Sox nation.

The wonderful performance by the pitching staff was almost ruined by the continued September nap the Red Sox offense is taking. With Danny Haren throwing just filthy stuff, the Red Sox sent up their batters most likely to look ridiculous at the plate. Jason Varitek, Kevin Millar, and Alex Cora were a combined 0-9 with 5 strikeouts.

But, then there’s Manny. With Edgar Renteria on 3rd (single) and David Ortiz on 1st (single), Manny Ramirez ripped a single to CF scoring Renteria and giving the Sox a 1-0 lead. A few innings later, after the Athletics had tied the game, Ramirez came up in the 6th inning with 1 out. It took all of one pitch for Manny to untie the game, depositing the ball somewhere across Lansdowne St. And that was the game.

For the first time all season, it finally seems like the Red Sox are beginning to realize that they just can’t “Cowboy Up™” — they need to actually execute and win ball games. From Chris Snow’s Globe recap, David Ortiz (who once again received the “M-V-P” chant last night) seems to understand the situation:

”If we don’t come in first place [in the East] . . .,” Ortiz said. He tailed off, making a throat-slash gesture, the implication being that Boston’s season would be dead.

Ortiz may very well be correct. Cleveland has another game against the Royals today, facing off against Jose Lima, which is akin to facing off against a Jugs pitching machine. The Yankees have another game against Toronto, with Ted Lilly throwing for the Jays. Lilly has been destroyed by the Yankees this year (to the tune of a .412 BA and 12 ER in 8 IP).

You have to expect that both the Yankees and Indians will continue their hot streaks, at least for today. So it’s time for the bats to come alive against Kirk Saarloos and his extra vowels, and it’s time for Matt Clement to prove that he deserves a spot in the post-season rotation. If neither of those things happen, there might not be a post-season.

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By Mullet, 9/16/2005 8:42 am

Just a handful of pitches into the game, the Oakland As had scored 2 runs and Curt Schilling was already muttering and cursing under his breath. Schilling’s performance left a lot to be desired, giving up 11 hits and 4 ER over 6.2 innings, taking the loss in the Red Sox 6-2 loss to Oakland. Chris Snow’s Globe recap captures a telling, if somewhat befuddling, quote from Schilling:

I had a feeling coming into this game [that] if they watched my last start they would see how many first-pitch fastballs I was throwing and how many balls I left over the middle of the plate. They were aggressive.

It’s a telling quote in that I think it is indicitive off how difficult it is for Schilling to be effective right now. He has to get ahead in the count to be successful, because his control/location is still suspect. To get ahead, he takes advantage of teams’ apathy on the first pitch, grooving a fastball. Once a team susses that fact out, you get an outcome like last night: a lot of first pitch swings and hits, and Schilling struggling to get ahead in the count (leading to a 3 BB/3 K performance).

It’s a befuddling quote because the Red Sox are paying both Curt Schilling and Jason Varitek a lot of money because they are apparently the most dilligent and prepared of all players at their respective positions. Surely, if Schilling had figured this out before the game, they’d be able to make adjustments and take advantage of the Athletics game plan? It’s a bit of game theory–we know you’re going to be aggressive, so we’re going to mix in some more off-speed pitches, so you’re going to sit back, etc.

Instead, as often seems to be the case, the Sox just barrel ahead and hope that the offense can compensate for inefficiencies elsewhere. Unfortunately for the Sox, Joe Blanton didn’t allow that to happen.

Blanton held the Sox to 2 runs on 6 hits in the first 6 innings, and the solid Oakland bullpen gave up just a single hit the rest of the game. Johnny Damon had a double in his return to the lineup, but is obviously not nearly 100%. Damon’s arm, already one of the worst in baseball, is now the single worst throwing arm in baseball. It’s unfortunate, since Damon has been such a warrior this season (and I’m not one for the platitudes), but the consistent playing through injury has obviously taken its toll. Manny Ramirez and Bill Mueller each had a couple of hits, along side David Ortiz and Trot Nixon who each had 1. That was the Sox offense for the evening.

The pitching-heavy Oakland team looked like the Red Sox at the plate. The top five hitters in their order went a combined 9 for 22 (.409) with 5 RBI and 3 BB (.480 OBP). Every hitter for the Athletics reached base at least once.

So, with the Yankees coming from behind to defeat the Devil Rays, the Red Sox stand just 1.5 games ahead in the AL East, and just a game ahead of Cleveland in the Wild Card. The Red Sox are struggling, and don’t have an off-day until next Thursday.

Thankfully, things could change tonight. Oakland sends Joe Kennedy to the mound against Tim Wakefield. Joe Kennedy isn’t very good. He doesn’t pitch well against the Sox, and he hasn’t pitched well–at all–in 2005. Tonight’s a funk breaker night.

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By Mullet, 9/15/2005 6:01 pm

The AL Central was locked up the Chicago White Sox just a month ago. Unfortunately for fans in Chicago, the Cleveland Indians have decided to just ignore the lock and kick the damn door down.

Current Standings
Chicago White Sox: 88-57
Cleveland Indians: 84-62, 4.5 GB

The White Sox have been in a complete freefall, losing 7 in a row at one point, and 6 of 7 currently. They sandwiched a 7 game winning streak in between, which is the only reason they’re still sitting in a slightly comfortable position. The Indians have done the exact opposite, losing just 7 games in August and 3 games thus far in September. It’s been an amazing run that has put the Indians in the Wild Card lead and given them a chance to win the division title outright.

Cleveland’s remaining schedule:
3 vs Kansas City
3 @ Chicago
4 @ Kansas City
3 vs Tampa Bay
3 vs Chicago

Kansas City has played Cleveland tough this season, but were swept by the Indians in August, and the Indians have favorable pitching matchups in all 3 games, so let’s assume 2 wins for the Indians in the home series and 3 in the away series. The White Sox have owned the Indians thus far, but with the teams going in drastically different directions, and a pennant on the line, I think it is reasonable that Cleveland will take 1 game in Chicago and 2 at home. That leaves 3 games versus Tampa Bay. The Devil Rays swept Cleveland in Cleveland in August, but lost 3 of 4 to the Indians in Florida. Again, let’s go with the hot team and give the Indians 2 wins.

That would leave the Indians with 10 wins, and a 94-68 record.

Chicago’s remaining schedule:
3 @ Minnesota
3 vs Cleveland
4 vs Minnesota
4 @ Detroit
3 @ Cleveland

We’ve already guessed that the Sox will take 2 from Cleveland at home and 1 on the road. That gives the White Sox 91 wins, meaning they would need just 4 wins in their remaining games to win the division. The White Sox are fading quickly, but they do end up with a couple of possibly favorable matchups. Let’s be conservative, however, and give the Sox just 1 win in Minnesota and a split series at home for a total of 3 wins (which would leave the White Sox splitting the season series with the Twins). That leaves 4 games @ Detroit to get a single win. The White Sox just swept a 4-game series agains the Tigers at home, and have a 12-3 season series advantage. 2 wins is more than likely, with 3 possible, but let’s be conservative with the fading White Sox.

8 wins, a final record of 96-66, and the White Sox win the division by 2 games.

Projected Standings
Chicago White Sox 96-66
Cleveland Indians 94-68

As you can see, much like the AL West, this division might very well come down to the 7 games between the two teams. For the first time in a good long while, a late season series is going to have a big impact on the AL Central playoff race.

Now, if we throw the teams into our very simple mathematical estimator, let’s see how the standings come out:

Projected Standings
Chicago White Sox 98-64
Cleveland Indians 96-66

Statistically speaking, both teams play pretty easy schedules, minus the 7 games they face each other. Thus, my spreadsheet is a little more optimistic than my gut is. Still, the White Sox come out on top, and again, it’s close enough that the 7 games between the Indians and White Sox will likely decide the division.

Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds report differs slightly, with the White Sox finishing 3 games ahead of the Indians with 97 wins.

Many people think the Indians are powered by a powerful offense and the White Sox sneak by with pitching and defense. These people are then surprised to learn that the Indians have scored only 19 more runs than the small ball White Sox … and have given up 4 less runs. By straight Pythagorean expected record, the Indians are the best team in the AL. BP’s Adjusted Standings like the Indians even more!

With all of the trends going the Indians way, things are looking up for Cleveland to get into the playoffs–either as the Wild Card, or possibly as the AL Central champion.

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By Mullet, 9/14/2005 8:14 am

An incredibly bad 2nd inning doomed the Red Sox last night, as the Blue Jays teed off on Matt Clement for 5 runs on their way to a 9-3 victory over the Sox. Clement was flat out bad in the 2nd, leaving pitches up in the zone, falling behind hitters consistently, and the Blue Jays capitalized, including Gabe Gross’ first home run in almost a year. Clement, to his credit, sucked it up and gave the Sox a full 6 innings, allowing 6 runs on 6 hits. He walked 2 and struck out 4, as his K rate continues to decline in the second half.

Attempting to pick up the slack for Clement was Keith Foulke, who came on in the 7th to allow 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks and a HBP. Chad Harville rounded out the night giving up 1 run on 1 hit and 1 walk. The pitching staff didn’t get it done, but they at least left some nifty looking pitching lines.

The defense didn’t get it done either. Foulke’s inning was extended by an Edgar Renteria error, a sight that has been all too familiar this season. The defensive deficiencies of the Red Sox outfield without Damon and Nixon likely contributed to Clement’s poor 2nd. The $150 million dollar roster doesn’t seem to have the ability to withstand an injury and a left-handed pitcher, leaving you with corner outfielders of Manny Ramirez and Kevin Millar, with Gabe Kapler taking “Family Circus”-esque routes to the ball in center.

Once again, David Ortiz led the offense, hitting his 41st homer and having the only multi-hit game of the night. But the Sox couldn’t get to the Toronto bullpen, being held scoreless with just 3 hits over the last 3.2 innings.

Just a frustrating night all around, compounding the exposed nerves left after Francona’s bullpen usage the night before. Gordon Edes’ article in the Globe has comments from a couple of Sox pitchers expressing concern about bullpen usage and Francona bringing Timlin into the game in the 7th.

”There was a lot of scratching of heads down there,” Myers said . . . ”No one had any pre-warning of what was going on. They’ve got three lefties in a row coming up and I don’t get up. You put [Keith] Foulke in there, then you bring in Timlin, who hasn’t seen the seventh inning in a long time without letting him know early on that you’re going to do this?”

Not the type of comments you hope to see from your team down the stretch, especially with the Yankees closing to within 2.5 games of the Sox after a 17-3 trouncing of their nemesis, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. With Cleveland also winning, the Indians are the Wild Card leaders, but more disturbing, only a 1.5 back of the Sox.

The Red Sox have no room for error, no room for bickering about how they get used out of the bullpen, and no room for playing favorites. Terry Francona needs to put his best 9 players out there every night–something that hasn’t happened very often this season.

The Sox close out the series with Toronto tonight, with David Wells facing off against Kevin Towers. Towers has pitched really well since the All-Star Break, so this will be yet another test for the faltering Sox offense. The Yankees face off against Mark Hendrickson in Tampa. If the Sox don’t win tonight, the Yankees will likely be 1.5 GB tomorrow morning.