Comments Off 2010 Pythagorean Record: 78-84
Roster Analysis:
Despite having a few very good players entering their prime (Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, Ethier), this team will not be very good, due to a few large weaknesses in the lineup and the back of the rotation/bullpen. The Dodgers haven’t finished in last place in 19 years. They could very well contend for that dubious accomplishment in 2011.
Projected Record: 72-90
Comments Off As previously mentioned, Orioles manager Buck Showalter has been running his yap about beating the Red Sox and their $215 million payroll (sic). Can the Orioles back up their skipper’s bold words?
Orioles 2010 Pythagorean Record: 63-99
Roster Analysis:
The O’s management has very creatively improved the offense with guys who, while not superstars, should score a few more runs and make a few more plays than the dreck they had on the field last year. They’ll be hoping that their young, promising starters improve enough to ensure the pitching staff isn’t a complete abortion like it was last season. Personally, I think the 2009 Jeremy Guthrie (5+ ERA) is the guy you’ll be seeing if we assume luck-neutral environment. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and he’s not a ground ball pitcher. Frankly, he shouldn’t be that good.
While they should be a bit better, keep in mind that this was basically a 100-loss team in 2010. They brought in some interesting low-cost, past-their-prime players to fill gaps, but it would take a miracle for this team to even approach a .500 season, especially given their divisional opponents. They’ll win enough games to avoid being a complete embarrassment, but they’ll lose enough games to make Showalter look like a jackass.
Projected record: 74-88
Comments Off My apologies for the long hiatus (again), but this time I have a legitimate excuse, as I was in lovely southwest Florida. Mostly, I was eating lots of grouper and drinking lots of Yuengling, but concurrent with those activities I was also checking out the Red Sox.
I have several observations and opinions I’ll be sharing from my time there, along with finishing the team previews. Work is hectic, so I’ll leave you with this:
2-minute Survival Guide to Southwest Florida (helpful for people who have never been there):
Next: A note on the battle for the last bullpen spot (we might have a surprise there), and the continuation of the team previews. At this pace, I should finish the 2011 previews sometime in April of 2013.
Comments Off 2010 Pythagorean Record: 92-70
Run Scoring: 4.88 runs per game (1st out of 16)
Run Prevention: 4.23 runs per game (7th out of 16)
After a 14-year hiatus from the playoffs and 9 straight losing seasons, manager Dusty Baker oiled up the Big Red Machine and flipped the flipped the “ON” switch, leading them to a 1st place finish in the NL Central last year. Cincinnati’s success was mostly due to their powerful offense, highlighted by first baseman Joey Votto’s stunning MVP performance (.324/.424/.600).
All of this happened despite a disappointing year from prized starter Edinson Volquez, who missed time due to Tommy John surgery and also served a 50-game suspension for violating MLB’s drug policy (fortunately for the Reds, these things happened concurrently). Now that Volquez appears to be healthy and a few other changes have taken place, how does the 2011 roster look?
Why am I predicting a slight decline for Votto? Only because he set the bar so incredibly high in the previous season. Matching his 2010 results will be very difficult. Put it this way, he can still have a great season at the plate in 2011 while still being slightly less productive (1 or 2 less wins). This is what I’m betting on.
The rest of the downgrades are pretty standard. Rolen and Hernandez are both coming off of very good years, but both players are in their late 30′s and a solid bet to decline a bit. Jay Bruce, as good as he was last season, might be even better in 2011.
While the offense can’t really be expected to significantly improve upon their success from the previous season, the pitching staff will likely be a little better. A healthy Volquez and another year of seasoning from Cueto, Bailey, and Wood translates into one of the most promising young rotations in the National League. And while the bullpen will miss the services of the ageless wonder that is Arthur Rhodes, Aroldis Chapman will make an immediate impact in the late innings, and could even take over the closer’s role if Cordero struggles.
Best Case Scenario: Votto continues to wreak havoc upon NL pitchers, and usurps the “best hitter in baseball” tag from Albert Pujols after his second-straight MVP season. The rotation stays healthy, and the Reds approach 100 wins.
Worst Case Scenario: Votto regresses into a mortal power hitting first baseman, and one or more key starters get hurt. St. Louis leaves the Reds in their dust. Record is slightly above .500.
Conclusion: This is a team that is set to be very good for a very long time, both in pitching and offense. Anything less than a Wild Card berth in 2011 will be a disappointment.
Projected record: 95-67
I’m not one of those guys who continuously bashes the print media, except in certain cases where they clearly deserve to be called out. However, let’s face it; the writers benefit from controversy. When things are going badly and there is dissension within the ranks, the columns write themselves. There is no need for journalistic creativity when you see a player headbutt an umpire and throw profanity-laced tirade in the clubhouse.
Anyway, the media knows that there is some potential for drama in the Boston bullpen this year, given the fact that you have three guys who cold potentially close for most teams in the league, and the guy who currently wears the crown is a) known for being very blunt and outspoken in front of the microphone, and b) coming off of his worst season yet. Naturally, they decided to ask Bobby Jenks a couple of loaded questions, hoping that he would say the wrong thing and start an avalanche of awkwardness before spring training even begins.
Must to the chagrin of the folks holding the microphones and asking the questions, Jenks masterfully returned the volley:
On his role: “It’s going to be different, obviously. It’s going to be an adjustment that I have to make on the field. … It’s going to be an adjustment day-to-day and something I’ll have to learn from quickly once the season starts and get myself adapted to that type of mindset this spring.”
On working with Jonathan Papelbon: “We’re fine. I didn’t come here to step on anybody’s toes. I know what my role is. Coming here, we’ve been friends, shoot, for many years now. I don’t think that’s going to be any problem throughout the year at all.”
On what will happen if fans want him to close: “If those questions do come up, it’s going to come down to the decision of the manager and whatever they think is best for the team. If that means whatever it means, they’re doing it for their own reasons.”
Bobby Jenks just got himself an A+ in Handling the Boston Media 101.
Comments Off Adrian Gonzalez, who wore #23 during his tenure in San Diego, has told reporters that he has no connection to his old number (currently taken by Mike Cameron) and will be wearing #28 for the Red Sox.
That’s pretty cool. I fully expected him to negotiate for #23 with Cameron, offering a Rolex or some suits as barter. By not giving a shit about his uniform number, he displays an air of selflessness and humbleness; good traits for a new teammate.
I know I’m reading way too much into this. It’s February, cut me some slack.
One of the things I’ve been working on is a permanent page where I list my Top 25 Red Sox prospects, and as of 5 seconds ago, it’s finally up. Just clink the “Top 25 Prospects” link in the gray bar at the top of the page, and you’re there.
I’ll be updating the list and shuffling the rankings periodically based on new information as it comes in (sparingly in the pre-season, and more regularly once the minor league season begins).
Over the next few weeks, I plan on adding several more pages to that gray bar, including MLB Power Rankings among other things.
Comments Off Big news concerning the Yankees: Andy Pettitte has decided to retire according to various reports.
Pettitte would have easily been penciled into the Yankees rotation had he decided to pitch in 2011. As of right now, the 4th and 5th starters in the New York depth chart appear to be Freddy Garcia (yes, the guy who pitched for Seattle 1,000 years ago) and Ivan Nova.
Of course, in today’s world of sports, “retiring” doesn’t actually mean retiring. I’d say the probability of Pettitte being the #5 starter on the Yankees in 2012 is around 50%. But, it appears that they will need to scramble a bit to fill out the back-end of that rotation in the short term.
Why "Inverted W"? Why not just call it "The M"? /seinfeld
2010 Pythagorean Record: 72-90
Run Scoring: 4.04 runs per game (14 out of 16)
Run Prevention: 4.58 runs per game (12 out of 16)
Coming into last season, a realistic goal for the 2010 Nationals was to not be the worst team in the major leagues. With a little bit of help, they made it happen. Despite clearing that lofty benchmark, the season was not without frustration, as young superstar pitcher Stephen Strasburg required Tommy John surgery after only 12 starts in the big leagues.
During this offseason, perhaps looking to fill some seats in lieu of Strasburg’s injury, the Nationals shocked the baseball world by signing free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth to a 7 year/$126 MM deal. Just about everyone outside of DC (myself included) questioned why a team clearly in rebuilding mode would make such a move.
So, can the Nationals compete in the NL East with Strasburg a virtual non-factor in 2011? I’ll save you the suspense; probably not. Let’s look at the roster:
When the Nats let Adam Dunn leave via free agency, they washed away any net offensive potential added with the Werth signing. The end result is a lineup that isn’t very different from the 2010 version. Zimmerman is a true superstar and should get better as he enters his prime, and Ramos and Espinosa are both promising young players, but this is a crew that won’t be scoring many runs.
The view from the pitcher’s mound doesn’t get much better. Livan Hernandez is legendary for his rubber arm at this point, but 2010 was the first time in 5 years that he finished with an ERA under 4.50. Given his age and track record, a regression is almost a certainty. Marquis and Lannan are batting practice machines who would have trouble cracking most AAA rotations. Zimmerman has some potential, but he’s never pitched more than 134 innings in one season during his professional career. Tom Gorzelanny is probably the best healthy starting pitcher on the team right now.
The bullpen was Washington’s strength in 2010. They weren’t just good, they were terrific. After losing Matt Capps and Joel Peralta along with the likely regressions of guys like Clippard and Burnett, the relief corps should be just about average in 2011.
Best Case Scenario: Zimmerman provides MVP-caliber results, Jayson Werth hits around 40 home runs, Pudge Rodriguez retires and allows Wilson Ramos to become the full-time catcher. Stephen Strasburg returns at the end of the season and has a couple of dominant starts, restoring some hope. Nats finish a tad under .500.
Worst Case Scenario: Strasburg suffers a setback and does not sniff a pitcher’s mound in 2011. Jayson Werth shows signs of aging, giving the front office a terrifying sense of buyer’s remorse on that 7 year deal. Zimmerman regresses a bit, and the Nats lose over 100 games (again).
Conclusion: It’s all about the prospects, baby. Fans should keep an eye on top draft pick Bryce Harper, likely to start the season in High-A and already campaigning for a September call-up. After seeing what he did as a 17-year-old in junior college, he could be the real deal.
Projected record: 71-91
First and foremost, I finally figured out how to imbed Excel spreadsheets and tables directly into WordPress, which was not at all an easy task for a potatohead like me. This means the team preview charts, among other things, will look much better on the site. I redid the Pirates and A’s previews using this newfangled technology, check them out.
Secondly, I went through and added a bunch of new links to the blogroll, and also deleted some dead wood (ironic, considering some blogs likely deleted me after the internet coma we had here). If you know of any good blogs I haven’t listed, shoot me an e-mail.
Lastly, I’ll be toying around with the aesthetics of the blog while simultaneously working on team previews. So, if I change something and it looks terrible, let me know.
Comments Off I firmly believe the Red Sox are the best team in baseball, even with their recent struggles.
They are currently (at about midnight, on 7/8/09) a half game behind the Rays in Pythag, and three games behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball. However, the differences between the leagues being what they are (Keith Law in a recent Bill Simmons podcast said he thought it could be as much as 10 games), and the fact that the Red Sox have played a tougher schedule than the Rays gives me some comfort in the face of these struggles.
Except for one thing…they cannot beat the American League West.
In April, the Red Sox made their first trip to the West coast and lost two series 2-1 to the Angels and the Athletics. The next time they went out west, they lost two series 2-1 again…this time to the Angels and Mariners. Texas came to Boston…and the Red Sox dropped the series 2-1 (after sweeping the Tigers in Detroit, and sweeping the Yankees in Boston).
The Mariners just left Boston, closing their season series against the Red Sox by taking 2 out of 3 at Fenway. Oakland has a chance to do same tomorrow.
Six series against the AL West…six lost series. Against some pretty crappy teams (every team in the West has a major flaw), the Best Team in Baseball is currently 7-13, and tomorrow night will determine whether or not the Sox go 0-7 in series against the ALW.
There is a statistical insignificance to all that…one of the trivialities that pop up when you grind a schedule every day for 6 months. However, the Red Sox can use those games to help tease out how to make the team more formidable going forward.
For some reason, the Red Sox have matched up poorly against the four teams that make up the American League Smythe. The Yankees and Rays are charging up the flank right now, and the Sox have 11 more games against those teams. If they just hold serve, rather than beat these weaker sisters, then the Red Sox would be the odds on favorite to be the “Top 3 in Baseball Team Watching the Playoffs from Home”.
Comments Off As we’re looking forward to a rain-soaked weekend, check out this site: Flip Flop Flyball
It’s a pretty cool way to chew up a few minutes of time.
Comments Off Day 3.
Round 31 Pick 948 - Shaughn Webb lhp Palm Beach CC FL
Round 32 Pick 978 - Michael Clark lhp American Heritage HS FL
Round 33 Pick 1008 - Blaze Tart rhp Pendleton School HS NC
Round 34 Pick 1038 - James Patterson lhp Central Arizona College AZ
Round 35 Pick 1068 - Matthew Milroy rhp Marmion Acadamy HS IL
Round 36 Pick 1098 - Michael Yastrzemski rf St John’s MA
Round 37 Pick 1128 - Matthew Koch rhp Washington HS IA
Round 38 Pick 1158 - Ezekiel Devoss cf Astronaut HS FL
Round 39 Pick 1188 - Gavin McCourt of Harvard-Westlake HS CA
Round 40 Pick 1218 - James Dykstra rhp Rancho Bernardo HS CA
Round 41 Pick 1248 - Kyle Rutter rhp North Carolina St NC
Round 42 Pick 1278 - Gera Sanchez rhp New Mexico JC MN
Round 43 Pick 1308 - Luke Maile c Covington Catholic HS KY
Round 44 Pick 1338 - Derrick Thomas rf Roswell HS GA
Round 45 Pick 1368 - Kyle Arnsberg c Arlington Lamar HS TX
Round 46 Pick 1398 - John Pivach rhp U of New Orleans LA
Round 47 Pick 1428 - Jordan Sallis 2b Arkansas- Ft Worth AR
Round 48 Pick 1458 - Brian Heere rf Kansas KS
Round 49 Pick 1488 - Chris Constantino 3b Bishop Hendricken HS RI
Round 50 Pick 1518 - Andrew Hedman 1b Ponoma-Pitzer College CA
I’ll be updating the draft picks here as they come in. Sometime this weekend, I’ll have bigger bios of these guys.
Round 4 Pick 138 - Jeremy Hazelbaker cf Ball St University IN
Round 5 Pick 168 - Seth Schwindenhammer lf Limestone Community HS IL
Round 6 Pick 198 - Branden Kline rhp Governor Thomas Johnson HS MD
Round 7 Pick 228 - Madison Younginer rhp Malden HS SC
Round 8 Pick 258 - Shannon Wilkerson rf Augusta State University GA
Round 9 Pick 288 - Kendal Volz rhp Baylor University TX
Round 10 Pick 318 - Brandon Jacobs lf Park View HS GA
Round 11 Pick 348 - Jason Thompson ss Germantown HS TN
Round 12 Pick 378 - Michael Thomas c Southern U A&M TX
Round 13 Pick 408 - Chris McGuiness 1b The Citadel SC
Round 14 Pick 438 - William Holmes rf Chaffey College CA
Round 15 Pick 468 - Michael Bugary lhp California-Berkley CA
Round 16 Pick 498 - Luke Bard rhp Charlotte Christian School NC
Round 17 Pick 528 - Kraig Sitton lhp Oregon St OR
Round 18 Pick 558 - Renny Parthemore rhp Cedar Cliff HS PA
Round 19 Pick 588 - Thomas Ebert rhp Florida International FL
Round 20 Pick 618 - Alex Hassan rhp Duke NC
Round 21 Pick 648 - Randall Faint lhp Texas HS TX
Round 22 Pick 678 - Jordon Flasher rhp George Mason U VA
Round 23 Pick 708 - Chris Court rhp Stephen F Austin TX
Round 24 Pick 738 - Daniel Kemp ss Tantasqua HS MA
Round 25 Pick 768 - Austin House rhp LaCueva HS NM
Round 26 Pick 798 - Miles Head 3b Whitewater HS GA
Round 27 Pick 828 - Reed Graganani ss Mills Goodwin HS VA
Round 28 Pick 858 - Eric Curtis rhp Miami Dade CC South VA
Round 29 Pick 888 - Cody Stubbs 1b Tuscola HS NC
Round 30 Pick 918 - Jeremiah Bayer rhp Trinity College MA
Comments Off 
Renfroe is a prep two way player for South Panola High in Batesville, Mississippi
Ranked 67 by BA, and is unranked by Keith Law
6′3 195 lbs and obviously he hasn’t been drafted yet. He’s committed to Ole Miss, and word around the campfire is that it’ll take $3 million to pull him away from the Rebels.
Comments Off 
Wilson is a junior right-handed pitcher who transferred to Texas A&M from Winthrop in 2008. Born Nov 6, 1986 (so he’s in his age 22 year) in Saudi Arabia.
Ranked 52 by BA, and 37 by Keith Law
6’1 205 lbs…played for Falmouth in the Cape League last year…drafted by the Cubs in 08 also.
This year, he went 6-6 with an ERA of 4.46 in 89.7 innings (second on the Aggies)…struck out 120 (1st on Aggies, 2nd in Big 12), walked 25, and gave up 4 homers.
He’s also had Tommy John surgery once, and was dropped from the rotation into the bullpen for “arm fatigue,” and it’s unclear if that’s because of actual fatigue or injury.
I’m not a draftnik.
I used to follow it more closely, but the old addage that the draft is a crap shoot is pretty close to accurate, and you have 50 rounds spread out over three days now to follow…that’s a time commitment I just can’t make.
In the effort to get more exposure to the draft, Major League Baseball started televising what used to be a somewhat voyeuristic conference call. If you never sat in on a draft, MLBAudio would air the call, and you’d hear the MLB rep and then 30 scouting directors call their pick in rapid fashion.
It was interesting and boring all at the same time…even when Tommy Lasorda would take over the Dodgers draft completely wasted.
The quaintness of the conference call was replaced, as I said, with ESPN (and now MLB Network) television coverage, complete with the analysis that makes the NFL/NBA drafts so contrived to all but the diehards. I don’t have a real problem with this, because the job of Major League Baseball is ultimately to give it’s fans what they want, and fans wanted more draft coverage.
Unfortunately this year (unlike last year), televised coverage starts at 6pm EDT. Which is 1 hour before the games start in the East, which includes a Red Sox/Yankees game. Now, I understand that the baseball world doesn’t actually revolve around the BOS/NYY rivalry, but it seems shortsighted to me that two teams with the biggest fan bases in the game have to choose between watching a Sox/Yankees game and the draft…a draft they are trying to get people to watch, obviously.
I’m loathe to bash the MLB for making money. I understand the game is a business, and has always been a business, and despite many claims to the contrary, MLB is very, very good at running it’s business. But running the draft against baseball games, especially when two rabid fan bases are likely not going to watch seems to be against the whole point of running the draft on TV anyway.
As Jimmy said, we’re updating Deweys House into this century, which means, hopefully, more ease of use, and better interfaces.
I’m also adding a link to my Twitter account, which I’ll be using mostly during Red Sox and other baseball games. I promise you I won’t be telling you the kind of bagel I’m eating, but I will be exposing you to some naughty language.
If there is an outage, or something like that, let me apologize in advance. My knowledge of computers is sub-elementary school, so it’s probably something I did.
The Red Sox have now reached their quarter point in the season, so now is as good a time as any to take a look at where the Sox are compared to expectations coming into the season.
Keep in mind that that we’re only talking about 25% of a major league season here…not trying to re-invent the wheel, nor are we making predictions based on performance this year.
Hitters
Jason Varitek – B
I thought he was completely done after last season, and in fact, wrote last June on how it was likely that he was going to be a zero for this team going forward. The good is that he’s hitting for a lot of power, which escaped Varitek last year, even during his serviceable May. He’s still drawing walks, which he did all last year. He still can’t really field his position anymore, and his game calling (something I always thought was as much a myth as fact) still gets praise despite leading a talented rotation to awful result, and he can’t throw at all. Still, if he can hold on for the rest of the year, the Red Sox will look smart for thinking that he could cheat death.
George Kottaras – C
I didn’t expect much, and his offense has been terrible. Still, he’s handling Wakefield well enough that you aren’t seeing his #16 facing center often…
Kevin Youkilis – A
He missed two weeks, but through 122 plate appearances, his on base is .500. That means as of right now, he’s reached base 61 times which is a season’s worth of work for the Willy Tavarez’s of the world.
Jeff Bailey – D
He homered in his first at bat of the year, but didn’t hit enough to justify his place as organizational fodder. Considering he’s 30 and can’t really field his position, we’ve likely seen the last of JB.
Dustin Pedroia – B+
He’s walking more than last year’s MVP campaign, he’s hitting a lot of doubles, and he’s probably the best defensive second baseman in the American League. He’s still had a very good year even if he doesn’t ever break the home run tie with Ortiz. The downside? He’s hitting into a distressing amount of double plays, which is the only thing keeping him from a A.
Nick Green – C+
Remember last year when Kevin Cash was hitting like an actual major leaguer for like 4 weeks? Green is this year’s sample size mirage. He’s this year’s Alex Cora, a utility guy that could probably start for a bad team, be the 5th or 6th infielder for an average team, and a easily replaceable guy for a good team.
Julio Lugo – F
Fuck you.
Mike Lowell – C+
First the good. He’s hitting for power, and he’s getting singles.
The bad? Everything else. He is below average at getting on base, which is tough to do when you’re hitting in the upper .280’s. He is a statue at third, the hip has sapped away his once-good range. His double plays are taking runs away from Jason Bay, JD Drew, and David Ortiz to the point where Bay has started by-passing everything but hitting home runs (In true Canadian fashion, he is doing so politely)…and the most damming? He isn’t hustling out of the box.
When Manny Ramirez was a Red Sox, he took a healthy amount of crap for not hustling which was usually explained away with his HOF level production. Lowell is the 3rd highest paid Red Sox right now, isn’t producing nearly as much, and no one has mentioned how on a ground ball to short, he’s not halfway up the line yet. This actually helped cost the Red Sox a game in Seattle when Betencourt bobbled a ball and still turned the DP because of Lowell’s jogging, killing a Sox rally.
This is not the first year that he hasn’t busted his ass down the line, but it’s harder to overlook when you’re only getting on base 32% of the time.
Jason Bay – A
Right now, he’s on the short list with Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, and a few others as the AL MVP.
Jacoby Ellsbury – C+
Great glove. The Red Sox have been blessed with some pretty rangy center fielders lately, from Darren Lewis, to pre-injury Carl Everett, to Johnny Damon, to Coco Crisp (his 2007 might have been the best I’ve ever seen).
I want to make this clear…I think Ellsbury is an average baseball player right now. His glove is fantastic, but his bat is…we’ll call it ‘weak’. As the leadoff man, power isn’t really a necessity as much as a bonus, so I don’t want him to hit a bunch of home runs…which he’s not. He’s also not hitting many doubles either though, and he’s been caught stealing 5 times already this year which puts his CS% at 77% (down from 82% last year). But the most distressing thing is that Ellsbury isn’t walking at all. His on base is under .340, which just isn’t acceptable from a lead off man.
Ellsbury was called up with a lot of hype, and it was justified with his down the stretch 07 performance. He’s not young though, being Pedroia’s junior only by a month, so I’m starting to wonder if what you see is what you get with him…and that’s a good glove singles hitter. He’d be an all star in the 1980’s…
JD Drew – B+
He’s staying in the lineup and the only negative is a low batting average. Forever dogged by the notion that he doesn’t care, Drew was a favorite of John Schuerholz when he was a Brave (mention in Schuerholz’s book)…which is interesting considering the shots taken at him by the Cardinals and Dodgers organizations when he left.
David Ortiz – D
The Good: All things considered, his on base isn’t terrible
The Bad: Everything else is terrible
The Ugly: Outside of an injury, there is zero chance of Ortiz being dropped in the order. Which means if he struggles all year (not an unfair thought), he’ll be taking almost 75-100 plate appearances away from the likes of Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and JD Drew or whoever might be currently better suited to the 3rd hole.
Rocco Baldelli – D
He is the right handed bat the Red Sox needed so much last year. Unfortunately, he hasn’t hit, and has already been on the DL. Thank God he’s cheap.
Jed Lowrie, Chris Carter, Jonathan Van Every, Gil Velazquez – INC.
Pitchers
Jon Lester – B-
If the grade seems high, it’s because I’m shocked his results aren’t better than what they are. His underlying peripheral stats show that he’s being killed by his defense and that ugly bitch mistress BABIP. The only real red flag so far this season has been the home runs, which he’s been allowing at an uncomfortable rate.
Josh Beckett – B-
If the grade seems high, it’s because I’m shocked his results aren’t better than what they are. His underlying peripheral stats show that he’s being killed by his defense and that ugly bitch mistress BABIP. The only real red flag so far this season has been the walks, which he’s been allowing at an uncomfortable rate.
Tim Wakefield – A
I dare anyone to say he hasn’t been fantastic so far.
When Wakefield finally retires, we might see the death of the knuckleballer in major league baseball. Starting in 1905, Eddie Ciccotte begat Jesse Haines, Haines begat Ted Lyons, Lyons begat Gene Bearden, Bearden begat Hoyt Wilhelm, Wilhelm begat Wilbur Wood, and the Niekros, they begat Tom Candiotti, Candiotti begat Wakefield.
There is currently no one I can find who throws the knuckleball that looks like they will have any kind of career.
Daisuke Matsuzaka – D
Blame the WBC, but a tired shoulder doesn’t lead to the amount of homers he’s been surrendering. What’s more likely is that his nibbling at the hint of trouble is catching up to him, and his pitches that aren’t being taken are getting smoked. I’m optimistic he will be able to turn it around, since in his return game against the Mets he challenged hitters more, and would have left having only surrendered 2 runs if not for the utterly destructive force of Julio Lugo behind him.
Justin Masterson – C
He cannot consistently get lefties out, which means that he probably will never be more than a league average starter. There is a good amount of value in that, but Masterson’s ability to throw hard, get strike outs and ground balls could turn him into Derek Lowe circa 99-00 which would make him the most valuable reliever in the American League.
Brad Penny – C-
Without the Red Sox offense, he’d be sitting at home, watching re-runs of Who’s the Boss while dreaming of a life that doesn’t so closely resemble hell.
Takashi Saito – B-
He’s old, and he’s struggled from time to time, but considering the risk involved (both salary and roster spot), the Red Sox have done much, much worse in the bottom of the pen.
Hideki Okijima – B
His strike out rate is unsustainable compared to his career norms, but his early season struggles have lead to a higher walk rate also.
Okijima has been with the Sox for three years, and for three years, he’s started out slow, and then been virtually unhittable. He’s a victim of his own expectations at this point, where the only thing to really worry about is when the shoe will drop. I doubt it does as long as he can physically stay on the mound.
Manny Delcarmen – B+
Close game, 7th inning. After a week of pitching well, Francona taps his right arm calling for Delcarmen with a man on 2nd with no outs. First guy strikes out. Second guy walks. Third guy flies out to deep right with the runners tagging. Fourth guy walks after Delcarmen nibbles on the 8th pitch. Fifth guy strikes out.
Manny being Manny
Ramon Ramirez – A-
I’m not generally a big fan of trading established, valuable position players (Crisp took a lot of pressure off Ellsbury last year by virtue of not dropping off at all when he answered the call), but Ramirez has been fantastic.
His hit rate is low compared to his K-rate, but the contact he gives up isn’t strong contact. His stuff can only accurately be described as filthy, looking almost unhittable at times. When you add in his age (27…young, but past the pitching danger zone), and contract (pre-arb!), Ramirez is certainly worth the Coco redundancy.
Jonathan Papelbon – B+
He’s looked awful at times, suffering from the same rockhead disease that afflicts Beckett, but you can’t argue with his results.
Much like Okijima, he’s a slave to his own previous excellence. There are very few relievers that can be as good as Papelbon has been over the last 3 years over 1 season…let alone 4. His walk rate is up, to be sure, but he’s still not giving up many hits…not many homers…many strikeouts. He still hasn’t blown a save, and has allowed 2 runs on the year.
Odd trivia: Of all the pitchers in the bullpen, Papelbon and Delcarmen have faced the most with 84.
Javier Lopez – F
You know what happens when you walk everyone, don’t get ground balls, and don’t strike anyone out?
The pitching version of Julio Lugo. He’s an awful right fielder too.
Hunter Jones, Daniel Bard, and Michael Bowden – Inc.
Baseball has been cursed (or blessed, you LaRussian ponce, you) with the existence of increasingly rigid bullpen roles ever since Dennis Eckersley was resurrected…about 20 years now.
In discussions of team construction, you often see guys listed according to role rather than effectiveness…Kevin Gregg was named the closer in Chicago over Carlos Marmol to much fanfare, which is funny to me because of how these discussions go. For example:
1. The last three outs are the most important of the game
2. Carlos Marmol is the better pitcher
Whatever…I digress. The point is that bullpens are stratified based on role. And after closer, and maybe setup (presumably the backup closer/8th inning guy), the most often bullpen role mention is the first lefty out of the pen, used to get a left handed hitter out who A. won’t get pinch hit for, and B. can’t hit lefties well.
Or as John Sickels called him, the lefty one out guy…LOOGY.
I defined a LOOGY, for the purposes of this exercise as:
1. Left handed (no shit)
2. Had at least 25 innings pitched
3. Their innings pitched wasn’t greater than 75% of their games pitched. This is to eliminate guys like Okijima, Jeremy Affeldt, and BJ Ryan who obviously weren’t used as LOOGY’s but might not have pitched an exact 1-1 ratio of games to innings.
This gave me 25 guys who you could say were LOOGYs last year.
Now, some teams might have cycled arms through the role last year (the Yankees come to mind here), but they were either prone to injury, or complete cannon fodder, so for the sake of argument, let’s say that if I say “NYY didn’t have a LOOGY last year” I mean they didn’t have one guy who performed in that role, not that they completely eschewed the role all together. Mmmkay?
Now, last year, your LOOGY was:
Left handed (25/25)
In the National League (19/25)
30 years old (16/25 were 30 or older)
Pitched essentially 2/3 of an inning per appearance (Actual: .70 ip/app)
Pitched in 42.7 innings last year (in other words, if you compressed their innings pitched into games, your average LOOGY pitched in the same amount of games as Joe Thurston played for the Red Sox last year)
Your LOOGY’s were (sorted by appearance):
Pedro Feliciano NYM NL
Will Ohman ATL NL
J.C. Romero PHI NL
Dennys Reyes MIN AL
Ron Villone STL NL
Scott Schoeneweis NYM NL
Wesley Wright HOU NL
Joe Beimel LAD NL
Javier Lopez BOS AL
Brian Shouse MIL NL
Trever Miller TBR AL
Jack Taschner SFG NL
Bill Bray CIN NL
Arthur Rhodes SEA/FLA NL
Jamie Walker BAL AL
Charlie Manning WSN NL
Boone Logan CHW AL
Neal Cotts CHC NL
Alex Hinshaw SFG NL
Doug Slaten ARI NL
Randy Flores STL NL
Royce Ring ATL NL
Jimmy Gobble KCR AL
Scott Eyre CHC/PHI NL
Mitch Stetter MIL NL
Now, I thought of this post when I was poking on BRef this morning and noticed two things about Javier Lopez. He only held the platoon advantage 47% of the time (AL average: 55%) and he generally wasn’t used in high leverage situations (aLI was .861).
LOOGY effectiveness against left handers isn’t of much interest to me, because these guys got their name to face lefties in high pressure situations, so I decided to take a look and see who was actually used that way (since Lopez wasn’t).
So, of the 25, I looked to see who held a platoon advantage (above league average, 55% for the AL, and 54% for the NL) AND had a aLI over 1.00. I did this to see which managers were using their lefties in a strategic manner at a time when strategy actually means something.
Our sample is 1. JC Romero had a platoon advantage 56% of the time, and an aLI of 1.538.
Now, there might be a bunch of reasons the other guys that had leverage’s over 1 (Arthur Rhodes, Randy Flores, Dennys Reyes, Pedro Feliciano, Jack Taschner, Joe Beimel, Brian Shouse, and Jamie Walker) didn’t pitch more. Maybe they had reverse split (but they were still used against lefties a lot, which would seem counter productive), or got their tits smoked by righties (which wouldn’t make sense, because they would have a platoon advantage more often). Or the platoon advantage was negated by the opposing manager calling for a PH.
I just can’t think of any reason they weren’t used more (at least that is rational to me).
Schoeneweis, and Welsey Wright were pretty close to the threshold, being just under 1, with PA’s of 54% and 58% respectively.
But Bray, Cotts, Ohman, Stetter, Villone, Eyre, Lopez, Logan, Ring, Miller, Manning, Hinshaw, Slaten, and Gobble litterally were paid money to perform a role (get lefties out at important part of the games) where:
1. Their managers refused to use them when the game was actually on the line
2. Their managers put them in a situation where they faced righties, because they couldn’t be trusted in a more important situation
3. In a low leverage situation, the opposing manager pulled a lefty hitter and pinch hit with a righty…neutralizing the defensive manager’s advantage.
What I suss out from this is that pitcher handedness is probably overrated in the bullpen, especially in controlling the platoon advantage. I’m sure there are a lot of situations where a lefty would be awesome, but they average out over the course of the year to non-important…at least when you consider the roster spot the LOOGY’s take up could be given to an extra hitter or a guy that can swipe some bags, or fly catch, or maybe pitch 80 innings or something rather than feed into a false scarcity of pitching.
Eight years after he mentioned how LOOGY’s just aren’t important (in the NBJHSA)…I got around to thinking Bill James might be right.
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