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By Jimmy, 7/31/2008 8:23 pm

There will be no shortage of analysis of the trade that happened. I disargee with Jimmy…I think the trade is pretty fantastic when you consider that Bay has hit as well as Manny this year, is probably +10 or so (1 win) better than Manny defensively, while Brandon Moss had no place on the team, and Craig Hansen can’t find the plate.

Manny Ramirez was one of my favorite players to watch, both as a hitter, and a complete space cadet. I don’t blame him for him losing his mind over the last week any more than I blame the Red Sox for somehow getting into these pissing matches whenever any very good player is primed to leave…it’s the sucky side of the business, but I understand.

Here are some Manny facts…
First hit: 4/2/01 vs. Pat Hentgen (BAL). Single
First double: 4/12/01 vs. Jose Mercedes (BAL)
First triple: 5/11/01 vs. Cory Lidle (OAK)
First home run: 4/6/01 vs. Ryan Rupe (TAM). 3R, Nixon and Offerman score
First RBI: 4/6/01 vs. Ryan Rupe (TAM). 3HR, Nixon and Offerman score
First walk: 4/4/01 vs. Mike Trombley (BAL)
First stolen base: 5/7/03 vs. Kyle Snyder/Mike Difelice (KCR). 3rd base.

500th hit (with Boston): 4/4/04 vs. Sindey Ponson (BAL). Single
1000th hit (with Boston): 5/1/07 vs. Alan Embree (OAK). Single

100th HR (with Boston): 8/13/04 vs. Mark Mulder (OAK). 2R, Garciaparra scores
200th HR (with Boston): 4/21/07 vs. Scott Schoeneweis (TOR). 2R, Ortiz scores

500th RBI (with Boston): 5/15/05 vs. Gil Meche (SEA). 3HR, Damon and Bellhorn score

500th walk (with Boston): 8/18/06 vs. Chein-ming Wang (NYY)

Last hit: 7/28/08 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA). Home Run
Last double: 7/27/08 vs. Sidney Ponson (NYY)
Last triple: 4/8/08 vs. Kenny Rogers (DET)
Last home run: 7/28/08 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA). Solo
Last RBI: 7/28/08 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA). Home Run
Last walk: 7/30/08 vs. Joe Saunders (LAA)
Last stolen base: 4/27/08 vs. Jaime Shields/Dioner Navarro. 2nd base

Walk offs for the Red Sox:
4/13/01 vs. Mariano Rivera (NYY) 9th inning single
6/15/03 vs. Peter Munro (HOU) 14th inning single
8/12/06 vs. Bruce Chen (BAL) 10th inning single
10/5/07 vs. Francisco Rodriguez (LAA) 9th inning home run

World Series Champion in 2004, and 2007. World Series MVP in 2004. Five time top 10 AL MVP. Eight time all star. 2002 AL Batting champion. Six time Silver Slugger. 2004 Hank Aaron winner. Led the AL in on base in 2002, 2003, and 2006. Led the AL in slugging in 2004. Led the AL in home runs in 2004.

Remember through all his quirks/annoyances, Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest player ever to put on the uniform. He should be remembered as such…

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By Jimmy, 7/17/2008 8:01 pm

This All Star break stuff really eats my balls…

Anyway, over at the Sons of Sam Horn message board, they are having an auction for Curt’s Pitch. There are some pretty cool things that are available, from the awesome (A week at one of the member’s Cape houses) to the absurd (a member-designed tee shirt and a 40).

Head over and bid on something…it’s for a good cause. SoSH Auction for Curt’s Pitch

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By Jimmy, 7/2/2008 4:20 pm

It’s been a while since I rapped at y’all, but I had something that I’ll be sharing with you over the course of the next few months, called…

Player Skill Assessments

This part is pretty dry, so you can skip ahead if you just want to see what the results are.

Basically this whole project came into being when I was watching a Red Sox game where Julio Lugo seemed to destroy everything he touched, like some sort of reverse Midas (everything he touched turned to shit). Someone I was talking to at the time, Tom, asked if Lugo was the most useless player in the history of baseball, to which I answered in the affirmative.

The next morning, I got to thinking…is he even the most useless player on the Red Sox? I mean, his paycheck keeps him in the lineup, but if they made the same amount of money, wouldn’t he still start over Cora? How good or bad is he given that shortstops in the American League hit somewhere at the level of your really good Little League player (you know, the kid that’s shaving at age 12, and when he’s not playing SS, he’s pitching faster than any Little Leaguer should, terrifying Johnny who would rather be doing anything but playing Little League? I digress)?

So after some thought, and some reading, I figured 13 “skills”…real quick metrics that are both easy to figure out, and tell you something very straight forward. Then I broke them into three categories…at bat, strike zone management, and on the bases. These 13 skills (I’m not quoting the whole time, keep in mind that skills is just the best word I could think of) were then compared to the league average at the position he played. So, if Lugo was truly the worst player to ever be formed by carbon, he would at least show up to be solidly below average against his exact contemporaries.

As it turns out, Lugo is pretty good at some things, bad at others. Egg on my face, yo.

The thirteen skills are:
At bat:
Batting average
On base percentage
Slugging percentage
I assume you know what these are; otherwise I’d doubt you would be reading this blog.
Iso – Slugging with singles removed
BABIP – Batting average on balls in play (the assumption being that hitters have some control over this, based on being the ones that actually put the ball in play)
Contact rate – This is the percentage of plate appearances where the hitter actually puts in ball in play. Having a low contact rate in and of itself isn’t a bad thing, but the trend is very important. In this exercise, I include the league average just for context, more than something that tells us anything important about the players’ skill set. But I will include pretty graphs!

Strike Zone management
BB% – This is unintentional walk rate with hit by pitches added in. The reason that I include HBP is that there is some evidence that certain hitters tend to absorb more pitches than others, and it’s not just because the hitter is a jerk. I mean, look at Craig Biggio.
K% – Fairly straight forward
K: BB – Strikeouts per walk. This is also fairly straight forward…remember, high numbers are bad!

On the bases
R/TOB – Runs scored as a percentage of times on base. This doesn’t really recognize a repeatable skill per se. Runs are as much individual function as team, but slow and bad base runners really don’t score as much as fast/good ones. League average is important here.
Spd – Bill James’ speed score. It’s found in the 1987 Baseball Abstract, and basically puts five speed factors (stolen base%, stolen base frequency, runs, triples, and avoiding double plays) on a 10 point scale and averaged. Its name is kind of a misnomer, as it doesn’t measure speed as much as the player’s ability to make use of his speed.
SB% – Stolen base percentage
Sb.tob – Frequency of stolen base attempts. This doesn’t measure much except the percentage of times the player decides to run for the hills

This isn’t meant to do anything analytical other than to create a type of profile for the player. There are 100’s of others I might have included, but didn’t…but I’m satisfied with what I have for right now. Without further ado…

Jason Varitek and the Red Sox catchers

I mean, they totally suck, right?

Well, Kevin Cash has had a history of being just awful, but Varitek has been a little different. His history with the Red Sox is almost as long as time (he made his MLB debut with the Sox in 1997 when he was 25), so there is a certain segment of the population don’t realize there were Red Sox catchers before Varitek.

After three years of perfectly meh baseball, he broke his elbow in 2001 diving for a popup that knocked him out for the season. Unfortunately, this was right as he was starting to reach his potential as a hitter, and was one of the most productive catchers with the bat in baseball.

The next season he was still recovering, and in 2003, he broke out, having his first really good full season of his career. Hitting 9th over 50% of the time.

This is where the story becomes interesting…Jason Varitek became a masterful handler of the pitching staff! Between winning the World Series, being named captain, and hiring the PR firm of Francona and Schilling, Varitek became more of an entity…praised for his defensive prowess (winning a Gold Glove in 2005) despite not being able to throw at all (seriously, check his SB numbers…it wasn’t all Derek Lowe’s fault). A Cult of Personality was built around Varitek, to the point that in 05-07, he wasn’t hitting much, and was still called one of the most valuable catchers in baseball.

Whatever…my theory is that he does do a lot of homework, but there is no objective evidence that he makes pitchers better (which isn’t to say he doesn’t, just no one really knows if he does), and the only reason why he was given the praise he was for his defense was because of his offense (middling catchers never get praise, the great hitters, and the terrible ones do, with the later because there needs to be some reason to keep them in the lineup if they can’t hit their weight).

Sorry for the digression…but Kevin Cash’s awfulness is well documented and is easy to recognize without this exercise. Varitek is a little trickier, because his reputation is so good, and he’s getting old. A few years ago (when he signed the 4yr/$40 million contract), I found that there were just no catchers that even caught at age 36, let alone didn’t have a steep decline. I think the only ones I could really find were Bill Dickey and Carlton Fisk or something like that…either way the number wasn’t very high. Varitek is the benefit of modernized training and such, and with an iconic reputation…which is never easy to let go. It’s important to put into context what Varitek actually brings to the ball club.

At Bat

The reddish color means below league average.

Without much of a surprise, the two men managing the tools of ignorance for the Red Sox just aren’t hitting a lot. Cash probably wouldn’t be able to homer if he was playing baseball in a silo (or if Juan Cruz threw the ball 1,000 miles an hour down the middle), but at the very least, it looks like Varitek’s negative rates are on the shoulders of a low batting average.

Unfortunately, his batting average is almost 20% below were the league’s catchers (not exactly known for their hitting prowess) are hitting. What’s more troubling is his contact rate.

Now, I said earlier (in case you skipped) that a low contact rate, even compared to league, isn’t bad…it just means you walk, and strike out a lot. Where Varitek’s true offensive horror lies not in a low batting average or a low contact rate, but in a steady contact rate that hasn’t been able to stop his batting average from bottoming out.

Look at Varitek’s trend throughout his career…

His contact rate isn’t significantly lower than it ever has been…so there isn’t evidence that his bat has slowed to the point that he’s being overmatched. There is evidence that once he makes contact, the ball just isn’t going many places other than into a fielder’s mitt. His BABIP is low, which could either mean luck, or not being able to hit the ball hard enough on the line to make outs into singles.

One “good” sign is that Tek’s isolated slugging is still above average, even if it’s not as high as it was in his 03-05 peak.

Strike Zone Management

I’ve always wondered why catcher’s walk and strike out rates were so poor. I think it is because the physical demands of the position are so overwhelming that it completely mitigates their more intimate knowledge of the strike zone

Consistent with Red Sox offensive policy, both Cash and Varitek can take a walk. They also strike out a lot (which leads to their low contact rates), but it has the added benefit of making the opposing pitcher work and saving their legs for more important things like squatting. One unspoken downside to making right turns to the dugout is that it leads to more bench time, which leaves one susceptible to the hot foot, among other pranks.

On the bases

I know Varitek used to be able to run, but he doesn’t much anymore. His run rate is pretty horrifying, but it gets better when you notice that he generally hits in front of Crisp (.434 slug), Lugo (.338 slug) and Ellsbury (.385 slug). Still, his run rate is the lowest among Red Sox regulars, and if not for Alex Cora, it would be the lowest on the team. That includes Sean Casey’s glacial ass.

He’s 36 years old, and any thought of being John Waltham is long gone…there are a lot of miles on his legs, so it’s not so much “He runs well for a catcher” as much as “Hey Bill, Tek doesn’t need a wheelchair yet”. Francona has as much do to with Varitek and Cash being anchored to first when they get there as they catchers themselves do.

Outlook
Varitek has always been streaky, but he’s looked awful at the plate for the last two months. What was a foregone conclusion at the beginning of the off-season…re-signing Varitek…should now be discussed in a good amount of detail. Is it worth paying Varitek $5 million a year to hit .220 when you could pay George Kottaras $400k to hit .210?

Either way, there isn’t any better internal option, with Cash being worse with the bat or seems to be happy in his “work once a week chasing after the goddamn knuckleball” role. Kottaras and Dusty Brown aren’t nearly good enough to jettison Cash and relegate Varitek to the bench.

Truthfully, the Red Sox have no option for 2008…they have to pray that this is bottom right now, and that Varitek is gearing up for one of his .300/.410/.520 stretches and have it last for more than 7 games or so (like his last one did). The real danger of Varitek is that he’s going to hit just well enough to justify a multi-year contract, and we have to watch the death spasms of a pretty good career play out on a Red Sox team that is rebuilding the offense that has so long centered on Manny Ramirez.

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By Jimmy, 5/23/2008 10:54 am

I’ve had a few days to digest a little.

There is a story you heard everywhere this week, at least as far as baseball goes. In August, 2006 when the rest of the season was falling apart for the Red Sox, one of their top prospects, Jon Lester, was scratched from a start with a sore back. After a week of testing (orginially, the back soreness was thought to be a by-product of a car crash), it was announced that Lester had a treatable form of lymphoma.

Less than a year later, he toed the rubber at Jacobs Field, and won. Fourteen months after his diagnosis, he got the win in the clinching game of the 2007 World Series. Twenty-two months after he was told he had cancer, Lester threw a no hitter against the Kansas City Royals, being the 18th Red Sox pitcher to throw a no hitter, and joining Nolan Ryan as only the second guy to no hit the Royals in their history.

This is all stuff you can read anywhere, even if I don’t fawn over how inspirational it was for Lester to throw a no-hitter. Some people can draw inspiration from things like that, but I’m not one of them…it’s just not how I’m wired.

No, what I got out of the no hitter is that there are two Jon Lesters, and the one we’ll all hear about it probably the one that he’s sick and tired of being.

The Jon Lester we will hear about is how he beat cancer, and then had a charmed year from July 07 to now. Lester isn’t a pitcher anymore, he’s a Cancer Survivor who happens to pitch. When he was interviewed after the game on Monday, he was asked about the cancer quite a bit by the press, and by Heidi Watney on the field. Varitek and Francona, who understandably showed a great amount of emotion, were asked about how special Lester was in defeating cancer. Lester is a Cancer Survivor, above all else.

The other Jon Lester was visably uncomfortable talking about his cancer after throwing a no hitter, like he was sick of talking about it. This Jon Lester is a former top prospect and potential rotation mainstay with the defending World Champions. This Lester throw his cutter too much, even if it’s flat, and doesn’t have a consistant breaking pitch. This Lester was almost traded to the White Sox in the 2003 off season merry-go-round that would have landed Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez in Boston.

This Lester pitched the game of his life against the Royals.

I write this at the risk of sounding insensitive, and that’s not my intent. I think it is tremendous that he beat cancer, and I would think that about anyone who had a cancer scare. Though the fatality rate of his type of lymphoma is fairly low, cancer isn’t something I would wish on anyone, and the fact that he was pitching less than a year after diagnosis is remarkable.

But beating cancer has created a narrative that has glossed over who Jon Lester is. After Monday, Varitek got credit for catching his fourth no-hitter. Lester got credit for beating cancer.

Going forward, it’s important to realize that Jon Lester shouldn’t be pigeon-holed as a Cancer Survivor, because his accomplishments on the field become a subset of that…and he seems tired of talking about it.

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By Jimmy, 10/1/2007 6:30 am

Today, we get an odd hybrid of regular season baseball and playoff baseball…the One Game Playoff!

In Denver, Colorado, two teams meet to determine the 8th playoff spot in this years MLB tournament…the San Diego Padres, who have made the playoffs the last two seasons, against the Colorado Rockies, who have made the playoffs once in their existence (1995). To show you just how long ago ’95 was (in baseball terms), the Rockies best hitter was Larry Walker, and their best two pitchers were Kevin Ritz and Billy Swift.

So tonight at 7:30, on TBS (not in high def, Cox Communications customers!!!) Rockies’ manager will send Pirate castoff Josh Fogg to toe the rubber against Cy Young favorite Jake Peavy. Given the option to start Peavy yesterday in the season finale, Bud Black opted to hold him out for a possible WC playoff/Game 1 against the Phillies.

The only real thing to note about this game, other than the obvious implications, is that your garden-variety analyst over the course of the year has been saying how awful the Padres offense is. In spite of that, the Padres have the 4th best road offense in the NL, with only the Phillies, Mets and Braves out pacing them. Even though the Rockies lead the Senior Circuit in runs at home that advantage is mitigated by the Padres starting Peavy. Fogg is having a decent enough year, considering he hasn’t been much of a pitcher in his career, and his team still plays their home games in Colorado.

When in doubt, in a single game, go with the better pitcher. The nature of baseball is that anything really can happen in a single game, but in foresight, the Padres pitching Peavy just puts them in a better situation to win the game.

Padres 6-4

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By Jimmy, 7/13/2007 8:16 am

I actually missed the game last night because I went to a concert (Tool). Concert kicked ass, the text updates I got during the game was both disgustingly post-modern and awesome as the local nine fluffed up Roy Halladay’s ERA a bit.

The three days seemed to do the team a world of good. They should All-Star Break more often!

This weekend, the Sox continue with the Blue Jays, and I’ll probably write something on how the World is wrong about the Red Sox vis a vis Roy Halladay.

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By Jimmy, 7/11/2007 9:45 am

I have returned, friends.

And I have done so to give you my take on the columnist cliché of mid-season rewards. What better way to genuflect at the alter of small samples!?

American League MVP: Alex Rodriguez – NYY, 3b
With a nod to Magglio Ordonez, ARod’s white-hot April’s and June’s out pace the Tiger. Plus, there is a good chance that despite his gaudy batting average, and many doubles, that Magglio isn’t even the most valuable Tiger since a very good argument could be made for Gary Sheffield. If the gods were smiling upon me, they would have the Yankees finish last and ARod win the MVP, so he can be the first player to win two MVP’s on last place teams.
Runners up: Magglio Ordonez, Vlad Guerrero, Gary Sheffield

National League MVP: Chipper Jones – ATL, 3b
I think this one is much closer than the American League one. Chipper has a .329/.417/.594 line, which puts his line only behind Barry Bonds. Jones’s name doesn’t appear on the home run leader board, while his main competition, Prince Fielder sits a top it. However impressive Fielder’s .620 slugging is…it’s only about 30 points higher than Chipper’s despite hitting 14 more homers than the Brave. Prince is also a completely immobile first baseman (unless he’s playing in the Metrodome), and Jones at least plays a passable third base.
Runners up: Prince Fielder, Barry Bonds, Chase Utley

American League Cy Young: Danny Haren – OAK
Before this off season, we wrote (or tried to write) a season preview for every team. I drew the Athletics both years and both years, I made mention of the fact that Haren looked like he had done a lot of heroin. Last night, at the All Star game, I was vindicated, as he actually looked like he was shooting up in dugout. He’ll get the help he needs.
Runners up: Johan Santana, John Lackey, Justin Verlander

National League Cy Young: Chris Young – SDP
Yes he plays in a ballpark that just completely destroys all chances of scoring runs, but he’s got an ERA about twice as good as average, and he’s striking out a batter an inning without walking many. He was also traded for Einar Diaz, which makes Diaz on the bad side of two disaster trades…Texas traded him to Montreal for Young (which they blew…not the point) and Texas acquired Diaz for an unknown named Travis Hafner.
Runners up: Jake Peavy, Brad Penny, John Maine

AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia – BOS, 2b
There are five guys that could be ROY in the AL this year and they all have “something” going against them. Reggie Willits has no power. Hideki Okajima is a reliever. Jeremy Guthrie is doing it with smoke and mirrors. Daisuke Matsuzaka has been pretty good, but inconsistent, and he hasn’t pitched better than Guthrie anyway. Pedroia had the cold month of April, but since then has pretty much been the best second baseman in the American League. He’s been a major bright spot in a Red Sox offense that has been sputtering for the last 45 days or so. Plus, he’s the only guy that is a “young” rookie, with Guthrie being 28, Daisuke and Willits, 26, and Oki being an AARP-ready 31.
Runners Up: Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Guthrie, Daisuke Matsuzaka.

NL Rookie of the Year: Hunter Pense – HOU, CF
“Hey Hunter, how about we call you up, you smash the shit out of the ball, make some nice catches on the hill, and then never, ever walk, under penalty of being traded to Pittsburgh with that anonymous Canadian fellow?”
“Ok coach, I can do that!”
Runners Up: Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Chico, Peter Moylan

All American League Team:
I’m giving myself a starter and a backup, a five man rotation, and a six man bullpen (min 25 games), for a very svelte 29 man roster.

C – Jorge Posada, NYY (Victor Martinez, CLE)
1b – Justin Morneau, MIN (Carlos Pena, TAM)
2b – Brian Roberts, BAL (Dustin Pedroia, BOS)
3b – Alex Rodriguez, NYY (Casey Blake, CLE)
SS – Carlos Guillen, DET (Derek Jeter, NYY)
LF – Manny Ramirez, BOS (Hideki Matsui, NYY)
CF – Torii Hunter, MIN (Curtis Granderson, DET)
RF – Magglio Ordonez, DET (Vlad Guerrero, LAA)
DH – Gary Sheffield, DET (David Ortiz, BOS)
SP – Danny Haren, OAK
SP – Johan Santana, MIN
SP – John Lackey, LAA
SP – Justin Verlander, DET
SP – Josh Beckett, BOS
RP – Pat Neshak, MIN
RP – Hideki Okajima, BOS
RP – JJ Putz, SEA
RP – Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
RP – Scott Shields, LAA
RP – Eric Gagne, TEX

Among the more controversial picks (I’m talking about Boston here…), park affects mean a lot. Mike Lowell and Casey Blake are essentially even as the #2, but Blake is doing it in a run environment that is a bit more hostile. Same with Roberts over Pedroia.

Manny Ramirez might be a surprise because of his power outage this year, but it’s a really down year for American League left fielders, to the point where he really does float to the top.

All National League Team:
The NL has to go with a 27man roster. Suckers!

C – Russell Martin, LAD (Brian McCann, ATL)
1b – Prince Fielder, MIL (Albert Pujols, STL)
2b – Chase Utley, PHI (Kelly Johnson, ATL)
3b – Chipper Jones, ATL (Miguel Cabrera, FLA)
SS – Hanley Ramirez, FLA (J.J. Hardy, MIL)
LF – Barry Bonds, SFG (Matt Holliday, COL)
CF – Hunter Pence, HOU (Carlos Beltran, NYM)
RF – Ken Griffey, CIN (Brad Hawpe, COL)
SP – Chris Young, SDP
SP – Jake Peavy, SDP
SP – Brad Penny, LAD
SP – John Maine, NYM
SP – Brandon Webb, ARI
RP – Takashi Saito, LAD
RP – Billy Wagner, NYM
RP – Trevor Hoffman, SDP
RP – Heath Bell, SDP
RP – Brad Lidge, HOU
RP – Jason Isringhausen, STL

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By Jimmy, 5/19/2007 10:22 am

Pretty self explanatory, no?

Here is the criteria…

*One at every position, five starters and one reliever.
*They must have played 50% of their games at that position.
*One player’s season is used.
*In the season in question, he must be 38 by June 30th.

Enjoy…

Catcher – Elston Howard, 1968 39 years old (.241/.317/.335)

When I started thinking about my own parameters for this little exercise, I thought that the lower limit for at bats should be around 300 or something, just to ensure that the “best player over 38” actually unleashed some positive benefit to the team. Finding no backstops, I lowered it to 200 and ran with it. Grover Hartley in 1927, and Elston Howard in 1968.

I went with Ellie for a few reasons…he hit .241/.317/.335 in 68, which is terrible. But Hartley hit .275/.337/.332 in 1927 which is substantially worse when you realize that ‘68 is the year of the pitcher and ’27 was in one of the best hitters eras of all time. Howard actually averaged more at bats per game over the season, which leads me to believe that Ellie started more games. Finally, it’s a nice little shout to the 1967 team, which revitalized baseball in Boston.

First base – Mickey Vernon, 1956 38 years old (.310/.403/.467)

Vernon had a pretty good year by anyone’s age standards, not just the grey beards. Again, first doesn’t have a whole lot of longevity in Boston, as only three guys combined for five seasons (Tony Perez in ‘80-81 and Dolph Camilli in ‘45 as the war ended).

Vernon was an All-Star in ’56 and was the best mortal hitter on the team. Perez hit more homers than Vernon did in his 1980 season, but did so under the loving support of a more favorable lineup.

Second base – Tom Carey, 1946 39 years old (.200/.200/.200)

Carey is the only player to play second in Red Sox history in more than 50% of his games in his age 38 year or later. He made the list on the “strength” of five plate appearances.

In case there is a family member reading this, congratulations, Carey Clan. Apparently, his nickname was Scoops.

Third base – Joe Cronin, 1945 38 years old (.375/.545/.375)

Much like second, I needed to sink to the depths of very few plate appearances. Cronin is a Hall of Famer, of course, but made his career as a shortstop. In ’45, he had 11 PA’s as a war-year fill in.

Shortstop – Luis Aparicio, 1973 39 years old (.271/.324/.309)

Louie ended his Hall of Fame career vacuuming up both outs and ground balls for the Red Sox in the early 70’s. When he came over from the White Sox, he actually got better each of the three years he was a Red Sox…or at the very least, less harmful with the bat.

His Red Sox career is of course most remembered for tripping around third base twice on a Carl Yastrzemski triple and was passed by Yaz on the baseline in September, 1972. This cost the Sox a run and effectively ended their season.

Outfield – Ted Williams, 1957 38 years old (.388/.526/.731)

This is probably the best season by a 38-year-old in major league history, with only Barry Bonds’ ’03 close. Only Bonds’ 2004 is better for guys over 38 years old, and Williams in ‘57 could be called a top 10 season by any over 35 player in MLB history, without hyperbole.

Among the qualified, he’s still the only guy to hit over .365 while being over 38, and one of two guys to hit over .380 (Tris Speaker) while being over 36.

Outfield – Bob Johnson, 1944 38 years old (.324/.431/.528)

It was against war-time competition, but Johnson really did hit well when hitting wasn’t easy (run scoring was depressed, mostly due to shoddy equipment…it’s tough to justify leather for a baseball cover when it could be used for boots).

Johnson niched out a nice career with the A’s, and went to Boston to end his career during the Second World War. Of all the outfielders, Johnson and Ted Williams dominate the over 38 list for the Red Sox.

Outfield – Ken Johnson, 1928 38 years old (.303/.356/.413)

The well dries up once you get past Indian Bob and the Kid. Conspicuous by his absence is Carl Yastrzemski, but he generally split time between the outfield, first base, and designated hitter when they had Jim Rice in the lineup, so there is only one place for him to go…

Utility Player – Carl Yastrzemski, 1978 38 years old (.277/.367/.423)

This was Yaz’s last season as an outfielder, and he actually played centerfield when Fred Lynn was dinged up. Yaz probably held on too long, but he played until he was 43, and really only had one bad year (1981), and that’s a feet that not many players can claim.

After their 40th birthday, only Pete Rose, Sam Rice, Carlton Fisk, and Dave Winfield were better hitters.

Pitcher – Cy Young, 1908 41 years old (21-11, 1.26 ERA)

Young had 30 complete games in 1908. If there was any other measure of the change between olde tyme base-ball and today is that there are very few 41 year olds today who could start 30 games in a season, let alone finish them. I’m not sure that it’s a bad thing that hitters can’t be dominated by 40 year old pitchers anymore.
Pitcher – Lefty Grove, 1939 39 years old (15-4, 2.54 ERA)

Groves’ last great season sits at the end of the Great Era of Offense that ran from the death of the dead ball era and the war. In 1925 with the A’s, he actually lead the American League in k/9 with 5.30. Today, he would have trouble getting out of the minors that rate. He pitched two more years for the Red Sox before fading into that good night.

Pitcher – Jack Quinn, 1922 38 years old (13-16, 3.48 ERA)

He had a losing record, but his ERA was a full 18% better than league average in ’22. Quinn was the best player the Sox ended up getting in the trade that bolstered the Yankees rotation in the mid-20’s (Sam Jones and Joe Bush). Shockingly, even though he was 38 in 1922, he was still essentially mid-career. He pitched 200 innings as late as 1928 when he was 44, and pitched 16 innings for the Reds in 1933 as a 49 year old.

Pitcher – Curt Schilling, 2006 39 years old (15-7, 3.97 ERA)

Just starting to slow down now.

Pitcher – Tim Wakefield, 2005 38 years old (16-12, 4.15 ERA)

Best pitcher on the first post-Pedro staff, and the historic link between Roger Clemens and Daisuke Matsuzaka. He might be the last of a dying breed, as the only two minor leaguers actively throwing knuckleballs now are Charlie’s Haeger and Zink.

Pitcher – Ellis Kinder, 1953 (10-6, 1.85 ERA)

Another knuckleballer, only this one was a heavy drinker, of which there are probably 100s of stories about that would either never come to light today, or be all over the news. Sixty-nine appearances, 107 innings pitched, all in relief…and he finished 11th in the AL MVP race for a team that finished fourth.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 5/17/2007 11:06 pm

The Central leading Detroit Tigers came into town, enjoyed some rain, and got sent back to Motown stinging from the pain of a doubleheader sweep.

To be honest, I really don’t know how to take the start to this season, beyond it being awesome. The only thing better going on in my life right now is the movie Mr. Brooks, which finally has the creative vehicle that fits both Kevin Costner and Dane Cook. I mean, you just know that Mr. Brooks will kill…with OSCAR!

Anyway, a team that has won 70% of their games, seems to get along well, and has been basically injury free is a boring one to write about…plus, I didn’t really glean anything from these games that you couldn’t find out just by reading various box scores and game stories.

The only thing to really mention is that Devern Hansack and Kason Gabbard will be playing the parts of the 6th and 7th starters used by the Sox this year, which puts them roughly 15 behind the Yankees pace this year. Also, the Red Sox take on the Senior Circuit a year after going 16-2 against them with a sure-to-be-rained-out series against the Braves.

Stay tuned for Sunday, when I unleash something neat on y’all.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 5/4/2007 8:55 am

The Red Sox got the brooms out last night and sent the Mariners packing. The 8-7 victory (I believe this series was played on aggregate score, from what I gather) was highlighted with the lack of Papelbon, the 2007 Manny Coming Out Party, and Daisuke Matsuzaka losing his control and, by extension, face.

In the post game, Terry Francona touched on all of these facets, with a good amount of candor, which was nice seeing as though these three things are extremely important to the long-term viability of this team.

The first is Manny’s slump, which seems to have been emphatically ended last night. The funny thing about it was that just how poorly Ramirez looked earlier in the game. He was completely fooled by Horacio Ramirez on a strike out, ending the first. He also ended the second with a double play on the first pitch…with five runs in and runners on the corners.

Manny got the better of his fellow Ramirez with one of those homers that looked like there was no effort in the swing, just a letter high fastball that was crushed to parts unknown. Just to keep us on edge, Julio Mateo made him look like a kid with a three pitch strike out. On a 3-2, his next at bat, he very rudely informed Chris Reitsma not to pitch him middle-in.

With Manny’s bat hopefully awakening for this season, there were two stark-negatives. In his brief Red Sox tenure, Daisuke Matsuzaka has shown a frustrating tendency to completely lose it in just one inning. In that inning, he’s just bunching his walks and hits leading to the proverbial crooked number on the board for the opposition. In his last 11 innings, he’s given up nine walks, 10 hits, and 11 runs.

Normally, I hate the ‘take out’ game, where you take out the bad and really see how good a player is, but I think with Daisuke, it’s completely interesting. If you remove the fourth inning from the second Yankees start, and the first from the second Mariners start…you have this line:
9 ip 5 hits 2 runs 3 walks.

Even if you play it back, against Toronto, he was hurt by walking three, and giving up two hits in the game-determining two run fourth. He wasn’t going to win against Seattle the first time anyway, but the game was put out of reach with a two run fifth. The only game where he really scattered runs was the first time against the Yankees. The only game where he was in complete control was against the Royals.

It’s way, way too early to deem the signing a failure, or to really even express a moment’s regret…the Red Sox are 4-2 when Daisuke is on the mound, and the Sox have scored two runs in those two games (including Felix Hernandez’s one-hitter). John Farrell will earn his money trying to figure out what is going on though.

Finally…Papelbon watched the sixth-best pitcher in the bullpen last night get a save, in a one run game. No we don’t know if Papelbon is hurt, I would bet no just based on his “I’m pissed off” glare when Romero went into the game.

My take: Tie game, Francona didn’t want to use Papelbon in that situation unless he had to, because he was cuffed up a few days ago, and ridden kind of hard so far. He has Piniero and Romero warming for the top of the ninth…neither has gotten a whole lot of work lately, and even though it’s not ideal, they need to pitch. Manny homers and Youkilis is retired on two pitches, creating a save situation and no time to sit both guys and then warm up Papelbon. Francona plays matchups, with Donnelly facing Vidro, Romero facing Ibanez, and then sticking with him for Sexson (good career numbers in an itty-bitty sample size) or going with Piniero (for R/R).

Romero got the double play, and Sexson grounding out to end the game. Papelbon lives to pitch another day.

Interesting Weekend Series against the Twins:
Wakefield vs. Carlos Silva @ 8:10 ET
Tavarez vs. Johan Santana @ 7:10 ET
Schilling vs. Sidney Ponson @ 2:10 ET

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 5/2/2007 1:47 pm

There is literally nothing to be learned from his start on Thursday. Sorry, there just isn’t, other than a Yankees starting rotation desperate for arms to go deep in the game are likely not to find an answer from The Boy King. Monday told a different story all together, even though the Rangers are what can only be accurately described as a ‘crappy major league team’.

The start against the Blue Jays was a cautionary tale of having a young base baller on the mound for you. It really was a generic appearance…he had good command of his fastball, but poor control. Spotty command of his breaking pitches, and no real off speed pitch that could fool major league hitters. One at bat, you saw a flash of absolute greatness, the next at bat was a battle of Major Leaguer versus Not-Yet-Ready.

Take a look at the debut games of guys like Felix Hernandez, or Andrew Miller…recent young right handers who were pushed into service.

But something happened between Thursday and Monday…Philip Hughes put it all together (as youngsters do sometimes…especially pre-drinking age) against the Rangers. They absolutely couldn’t touch him.

Handed a six run lead before the game even entered the second third, Hughes strung together those ‘flashes’ I mentioned earlier, and was using his curve and fastball to eliminate any chance the Rangers had to get back in the game. By the time he was pulled in the 7th, he had thrown 83 pitches, 53 for strikes. He struck out Kenny Lofton, Mark Teixeira, Victor Diaz, Brad Wilkerson twice, and Gerald Laird. Only three outs were recorded in the air. This game was pitched by developing pitcher with a unobtainable ceiling…not a guy with a lot of hype and 4 MLB innings under his belt.

That is the story that should have been written. Instead, I get to bore you with some reality, because I’m sure as you know, Phil Hughes left the game with a hamstring injury.

This is very, very dangerous for a very specific reason…the legs are the most important part of the body in baseball. In pitching, if you have to change your leg mechanics at all, it might shift the strain on your upper body. The most famous example is that Dizzy Dean broke his foot, and came back before he was completely healed. He had to change his landing spot on the mound, to alleviate the pain on his foot. In doing so, his mechanics were out of wack, his arm died, and so did his career.

This is where the Yankees have to be very careful. The official word is that he’s on the shelf for four-to-six weeks…but in order for his arm not to atrophy, he’ll likely start pitching when he can put weight on his hamstring. If the leg isn’t completely healed, this 20-year-old…already in the throes of a deadly part of his career, injury-wise…faces a dire injury situation. Stress that used to be on the shoulder and oblique muscle could be transfered to the elbow.

The Yankees can’t shut him down obviously, so they are in a precarious position. The margin for error is fairly tight with any young pitcher, and considering Hughes is the hurling future of the Yankees, being overly cautious might be the best track.

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 4/27/2007 12:23 am

…in between strikeouts.

In a fairly nondescript game (Josh Beckett pitched pretty well, but didn’t have those sexy sexy strikeouts that make me love him so well), Wily Mo harshly told Sam Perlozzo that perhaps…just perhaps…Chris Ray is not a five out guy.

I’m pumped my friends, as Wiley Meaux Pena is 260lbs of pure goofy muscle.

Anyway, this game shows the good and the bad of the Man That Was Once Arroyo. He hits the ball hard twice, for a line out into a double play, and then a double. The other time, he swung from his heals at a breaking ball that he couldn’t have done anything with even if he did make contact. The trying to kill everything is what makes Pena just so frustrating, but fun…he might literally make contact twice in a week, but both times the ball is crushed.

And that is what should be gleaned from this game, vis-a-vis Pena’s development. Because of his either inability or unwillingness to lay off breaking pitches out of the strike zone, he’s going to be subject to wild streaks of hotness and coldness.

As a theory, by the way, with no basis other than a hunch, I think Pena just is befuddled by balls with spin on them. He watches a lot of curves and such in the strike zone…more so than other guys that can’t lay off them down and away. I don’t know if it’s just a mental block, or if it’s an eye sight thing, but I am probably going to err on the side of Pena having serious pitch recognition problems, rather than a stubborn adherence to “make ball go smash.”

The other interesting thing is that this is the second time this year that an American League East opponent brought in a highly regarded closer to get five outs in a pressure situation, and both times, the Red Sox offense made them pay for their busting of convention. I personally think this is awesome, because I want teams to see Mariano Rivera and Chris Ray get lit up, and when their team has 1st and 3rd with one out against the Sox, I want them to leave their gun in the holster. Detroit, and Anaheim have bullpens that this wouldn’t work on (Zumaya and Shields are the best relievers in their respective pens)…but I would hate to see Joe Nathan come in early because his manager decides that he can go two innings to stop the Sox.

This weekend is decidedly less intense than last, because, while the Sox went .500 this week, the Yankees still haven’t won since last Thursday. Sox sit in first by three games over Toronto, and the Yankees are tied with Tampa, 5.5 back.
Friday: Matzusaka vs. Pettitte
Saturday: Wakefield vs. Karstens
Sunday: Tavarez vs. Wang /snicker

COMING SOON (This afternoon): My take on Phil Hughes’ first start
COMING SOON (May): Saturday Prospect reports
COMING SOON (May): Weekend Wrapup presented by Eric Hinske & Kappa Epsilon Gamma

Comments (3)

By Jimmy, 4/20/2007 7:37 am

So here it is, the first installment of the annual match up of bitter American League East rivals, the Boston Red Sox and the New York Kiddie Touchers.

I’m not going to waste your time talking about the pedophilic tendencies of the Yankees, since there is baseball to be played. Just remember to keep your children safe at the park this weekend.

What I decide to do here was to actually write an honest-to-God preview of the upcoming clash, with a more in depth look at the state of the two teams than I would normally do. The particulars of the series actually bode well for the Red Sox, because it’s in Fenway, where they can bend the will of men, and the pitching match ups all favor the Red Sox. The normal caveats about all predictions and stats apply…there is no real way to prognosticate baseball…everything is just too random. Keep in mind that the things I talk about are in a theoretical realm, where what is supposed to happen is more important than what actually does happen. We’re through the looking glass here people.

Leading off
Julio Lugo – SS .280/.345/.360 5.9 rc/27
Johnny Damon – CF .300/.440/.475 10.51 rc/27

Offensively, the numbers are pretty ugly when you look up and down the lineup. The Yankees offense is running pretty well right now, and the top is eating much of the burden of slow starts by the bottom of the order. Damon is really off to a good start so far, mostly centered around his walk spike so far. The concerning thing is that he’s only making contact in 66% of his at bats, which is a crater for him. Something to keep an eye on as the year moves along.

Lugo has been a slight disappoint to me so far, as his slugging is lower than what it should be, and he should be walking a bit more. I would be interested to see him hitting sixth in front of Lowell just so he could use his speed more in front of a guy that makes a lot of contact, but doesn’t walk much.
Advantage: Yankees

Second
Kevin Youkilis – 1B .235/.316/.333 5.1 rc/27
Derek Jeter – SS .323/.391/.371 5.2 rc/27

The differences between the two men’s rates are pretty substantial, obviously. Jeter outpaces Youks by over 35 points in all three. So why have they been contributing essentially the same amount to their respective offenses? For one, Jeter is chewing up outs, basically only contributing singles. That’s not a bad thing really, with the guys behind him hitting the crap out of the ball, but the runs scoring are as much them as him…basically, he should be hitting more doubles ect.

The other big thing is that there are 3 runs (per 27 outs) difference between them with runners on. Youks right now is +1.8 in hitting with RISP and HR with men on base. Jeter is –1.2.
Advantage: Yankees

Third
David Ortiz – DH .288/.383/.673 7.9 rc/27
Bobby Abreu – RF .345/.406/.414 8.5 rc/27

We’re seeing the humanity of David Ortiz lately, as he hasn’t done anything heroic lately. For example, Scott Downs overmatched Ortiz yesterday afternoon (a fantastic game, by the way). And Ortiz just looked mortal. This is not a criticism of Papi, or anything at all. It just proves that regression to the mean affects deities as well.

Bobby Abreu is being mentioned as the forgotten man so much that I actually wonder if someone, somewhere forgot him.
Advantage: Red Sox

Cleanup
Manny Ramirez – LF .200/.310/.280 4.2 rc/27
Alex Rodriguez – 3B .351/.418/.965 15.1 rc/27

Alex Rodriguez is hitting otherworldly. He really is. But it’s so tied up in luck (the random concentration of his ‘goodness’, not the word-holder use that explains everything the numbers don’t show.) that he’s absolutely bound to get booed (figuratively) in the next month.

Most of his value this year is tied up in home runs. Half of his hits have been homers. He is hitting .351, but his on base isn’t much higher than usual (he’s a .390-.400 guy anyway).

It’s the homers. Not only that, of his 10 homers, he’s hit 9 with men on base. At the risk of sounding too nerdy, given his home run rate (10 in 57ab’s), he should have hit 5.6 homers with his 32 ab’s with men on base. He’s hit 9.

In other words, Alex Rodriguez is a bad, bad man right now, but he will stop hitting like he has eventually, and I would guess, very soon.

Manny is a couple steps behind, but I doubt there will be much difference in their overall numbers at the end of the year.
Advantage: Yankees

Fif
JD Drew – RF .341/.434/.455 9.4 rc/27
Jason Giambi – DH .255/.349/.509 6.1 rc/27

Kudos to me for the Dave Chappelle reference. I can really see why people hate JD Drew, and I don’t mean this sarcastically. Everything he does is very, very smooth, very quiet. He’s the type of player that gets labeled a ‘waste of talent’ because everything just comes naturally to him. His uniform always looks clean, he never looks like he’s running hard, he never gets too high or low. If only, ONLY, he would run harder, or dive for a ball, or send his helmet after striking out…imagine how good he would be then!

This hit me during Opening Day. Drew lead off the 7th and the Royals were up 6-1. He hits a grounder to first and Mike Sweeney lumbered over to the bag. As soon as he stepped on first, you saw Drew flying into the picture. In a five run game, our new right fielder that doesn’t care was hauling ass down the first base line on a grounder to first.

Jason Giambi’s days of hitting .300 are long gone, but if he can keep a stable walk rate and rip 35 homers a year, then he’ll likely only be overpaid by about $15 million this year.
Advantage: Red Sox

Sixth
Mike Lowell – 3B .280/.309/.460 4.4 rc/27
Jorge Posada – C .353/.393/.529 6.8 rc/27

Lowell is a freak of nature so far. Right now, he has only had five plate appearances that haven’t ended with him running to first. He’s trotted four times (one homer, three walks), and hung his head in shame once (one strikeout). He’s put the ball in play in 93% of his plate appearances (Ichiro is at 76%).

Jorge Posada is in a funny ESPN commercial with David Ortiz that ends with Wally the Green Monster just being completely horrified. The big eared bastard doesn’t even have the good sense to bend his brim.
Advantage: Red Sox

Seventh
Jason Varitek – C .189/.262/.243 1.7 rc/27
Robinson Cano – 2b .268/.323/.304 3.4 rc/27

Cano might win a batting title, but he sure won’t even be one of the most productive Yankee hitters. I’ve wasted too many words on these two to bore you with more…plus I’m missing my self-induced deadline/
Advantage: Yankees

Baseball’s Cruel Joke to Offense
Coco Crisp – CF .167/.212/.229 1.3 rc/27
Doug Mientkiewicz – 1B .147/.237/.235 0.3 rc/27

Occasionally, if I’m bored, I’ll go on to Wikipedia and feed my nerdish brain. Like, I’ll figure out how many Rhode Islands can fit in Greenland (688.7) or some other such nonsense to waste time. Much like the at bats of these two ‘hitters’. It would take 9.4 Crispkiewicz’s to equal one ARod.
Advantage: Red Sox

Ninth
Dustin Pedroia – 2B .167/.302/.167 2.4 rc/27
Melky Cabrera – LF .204/.228/.204 1.0 rc/27

They are hitting better than the men right above them but still below your more frisky pitchers. These are the wrong two markets to struggle in as rookies. Cabrera really shouldn’t be anything more than a forth outfielder for most of his career, but was thrown into the fold when Matsui went down, and Pedroia was anointed the second baseman, with the only pressures coming from Little Joey Cora. Both these guys are probably the best chances of being upgraded on in the trade market.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bench
Boston:
Alex Cora
Eric Hinske
Doug Mirabelli
Wily Mo Pena

New York:
Miguel Cairo
Will Nieves
Josh Phelps
Kevin Thompson

The Red Sox Opening Day payroll is $143million (from Cot’s. The Yankees cost $189.6million. The Sox have two guys that could start for some of the lower half teams (Pena and Hinske) and two more that should be serviceable backups this year (Cora and Mirabelli). The Yankees have nothing of the kind, though some of their fans have convinced themselves that Miguel Cairo is useful. I’ve also always liked Phelps, and I actually think he’ll break out of the platoon he’s in once Torre realizes that Minky can’t hit. See you in August, Josh!
Advantage: Red Sox (very big, but insignificant)

Pitching Matchups
Friday 7:05pm
Curt Schilling 2-1 2.84 (3.03 Dips, 4.87 runs saved/52.0 over 32 starts)
Andy Pettitte 1-0 1.59 (3.13 Dips, 6.73 runs saved/71.8 over 32 starts)

It looks like Pettitte should get the nod here, but I can’t do it. He’s allowed three earned runs, but allowed six overall. The unearned runs weren’t all his fault, obviously, but if you look at the pitchers that don’t get burned by them much…they are almost always the best pitchers in baseball. So what I’m saying is that if Pettitte his being hurt by defensive errors, he’s not doing enough to bail himself out either.
Advantage: Red Sox

Saturday 3:55pm
Josh Beckett 3-0 1.50 (2.83 Dips, 7.3 runs saved/77.9 over 32 starts)
Darrell Rasner 0-1 3.86 (5.58 Dips, 2.0 runs saved/21.5 over 32 starts)

Beckett might be the most fun pitcher to watch on the Red Sox when he’s on, which is no small praise on a staff with Schilling, Daisuke, and Papelbon. He’s been pitching like Boston expected him to when they relegated Hanley Ramirez to the swamp, but, being the jerk that I am, keep in mind that it’s still very early in the year, and his horrors started last year with the Yankees.

I don’t know much about Rasner, other than he will surely shut out the Red Sox. This is mostly based on the fact that he has been in the league less than two seasons.
Advantage: Red Sox

Note: ESPN had Rasner this morning as the probable starter, which is impressive since he pitched yesterday. It will be Jeff Karstens.

Sunday 8:05pm
Daisuke Matsuzaka 1-2 2.70 (2.37 Dips, 5.4 runs saved/58.1 over 32 starts)
Chase Wright 1-0 5.40 (6.27 Dips, -0.1 runs saved/-4.445 over 32 starts)

This is Daisuke’s first real test of American Baseball Offensive Might, after dropping games to the Mariners against a one hitter, and the Blue Jays, only struggling for about 4 hitters.

Chase Wright was my favorite character on Laguna Beach.
Advantage: Red Sox

Bullpens
Red Sox:
Brendan Donnelly
Hideki Okajima
Joel Piniero
JC Romero
Kyle Snyder
Mike Timlin
Jonathan Papelbon

Yankees:
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Sean Henn
Mike Myers
Scott Proctor
Luis Vizcaino
Mariano Rivera

The Yankees pen has thrown 60.3 innings, and Joe Torre has raised his arm 57 times. The Sox counter that with 35.7 innings, and Terry Francona only waddling out of the dugout 42 times. Most of this is the fault of the starting pitching, with the Yankees starters not even averaging five innings a start (4.9) and the Sox going deep into ballgames (6.2). But the harbinger of things to come is that the pitchers that Torre trusts are older, and if he keeps hitting them up for innings in April and May, they might not be there in September and October.

All told, the Sox pen, thought a weakness has been either inert (way not to screw up guys!) or down right good. The Yankees pen hasn’t been awful, other than a few slips here and there, but they are being ridden hard early, and their peripherals can’t support their ERA (2.69 actual vs. 4.25 Dips).

Rivera gave up a home run to Marco Scutaro. Papelbon is striking out 18.6 guys per nine.
Advantage: Red Sox (for now)

I tend to be conservative with these things, so I’m going to say that because two of the games are sure to be in coolish, night weather (which depresses offense) and are at Fenway, the Red Sox should take two of three.

Enjoy the games.

Comments (6)

By Jimmy, 4/16/2007 10:28 am

During the Spring Chein-Meng Wang hurt his hamstring. Then, this weekend, Carl Pavano, and Mike Mussina were felled by forearm and hamstring injuries.

That leaves the pitching rotation to Andy Pettitte, Kei Igawa, Chase Wright, Darrell Ranser, and probably, Sean Henn until Wang is ready (presumably on April 24th). This shows the folly of building a rotation around pitchers that have durability/age issues.

Truthfully, there is no reason for Team Yankee to even feign surprise. Pavano hasn’t pitched really since 2005. Mussina is 38 years old and hasn’t been the paragon of heath the last few seasons. Wang is young, but come on…he’s still a pitcher. Jeff Karstens was supposed to be the fifth starter, and his shoulder tightened up in spring. He’s scheduled to start his rehab assignment this week.

The Yankees are reaching down to their 7th, 8th, and 9th starters in April, which is unfortunate and unlucky. But the chances of not having to reach into that well this year at all were slight. Chances are, by the trading deadline, these guys plus perhaps Humberto Sanchez and Philip Hughes would have started games anyway with the volatility in the staff when it comes to health.

The question of what the Yankees could have done is unanswerable. They could have sent Jose Tabata and Hughes to Florida to get Dontrelle Willis, or dropped the coin to get Matsuzaka, or even someone who is less talented but can be counted on for innings, like Jeff Suppan. This question revolves around information we don’t know, such as how willing the Yankees were to make noise like that, and how willing they were to try and bludgeon teams to death with their offense.

The rotation is broken. The Yankees might have a reversal of luck in the upcoming months, with Pavano, Mussina, and Wang coming back soon and being effective, while Pettitte and Igawa both stay healthy. The chances of that happening are nill, and that’s not even considering performance issues, such as Mussina and Pettitte struggling last year, Pavano having a season and a half of rust on him, Igawa adjusting to the U.S. and Wang out pitching his rates.

The Yankees under Brian Cashman have a history of not sitting idly by while their team goes to shit. Some team will have a solid pitcher available, perhaps complete with a teammate with a poison pill contract that only a handfull of teams able to swallow and only the Yankees willing to. The fear might be that teams are wising up and forcing Cashman’s hand, when it comes to his prospects, especially Hughes and Tabata. The alternative might be a third place finish.

Unlike most Red Sox fans, I don’t wish ill on the Yankees. I hope they lose, but that’s only because the Red Sox success is directly tied to them losing…much like the Blue Jays losing, the Orioles losing, or Tampa losing. I look forward to Red Sox/Yankee games because of the intensity of the game…not because of some feud that started decades ago and now get driven up in a media induced furor. I don’t hate ARod.

But the Yankees rotation is the determinate of success for the team. The Yankees will hit, and the back of their bullpen will be solid, as long as Rivera doesn’t face Marco Scutaro and Bill Mueller. Actually, they will hit a lot. But much like the margin for error is very low with a team that wins 3-2, winning 10-8 is even riskier because of the potential of bullpen blow out during the year.

The Yankees are really only as good as their starter can hold other teams in check. They are off to a scary start.

Comments (2)

By Jimmy, 4/13/2007 9:02 am

With the game rained out last night, there is pretty much nothing Sox related to talk about. So I’ll talk about something that seems to have flown under the national radar…Don Imus!

Actually, due to a stirring combination of school work, and Guitar Hero II, I had a late night last night and have nothing much to say, so I’ll test out our new table feature by giving some hitting stats for the Angels and Red Sox.

Stat Guide:
g – Games
pa – Plate Appearences
ba – Batting average
ob% – On base percentage
slug – Slugging percentage
rc/27 – Runs created per 27 outs
risp – Runs added to offense with hits while runners are in scoring position. This is based on expectation.
mob – Runs added to offence with home runs while men are on base. The is based on expectation.
con – contact rate
bb% – percentage of plate appearences that end with an unintentional walk
k% – percentage of plate appearences that end with strikeout
iso d – Isolated discipline (OB%-BA)
iso s – Isolated slugging (Slug-BA)
DP Rate – Approximate double plays per oppertunity

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 4/11/2007 8:51 am

Yesterday afternoon’s home opener was about as interesting a game as you can have, considering there was literally one half inning where the result was even a little bit in doubt. There was a little bit of everything from awesome pitching, a finely-tuned offense, some gamesmanship, and, for good measure to keep the attention of people that like 24 a little too much, a bench clearing incident.

I’m going to talk about the boring stuff first…Josh Beckett. He was just completely in control this game, doing such crazy things as holding the Mariners to two hits, and striking out Ichiro three times, which is probably the baseball equivalent of trying to kill Jack Bauer with an Air Soft gun. This will be my last reference of a television show I don’t like and don’t watch. I promise.

The Red Sox offense, which had been lulled into a weather depressed coma, sprung to life, helped out by Jeff Weaver not having the ability to throw strikes, and unleashing their bats like the proverbial hounds on the off-chance he did throw one in the strike zone. Yup, same guy that clinched the World Series for the Cardinals last year. The highlight of The Weave abuse was JD Drew leaning out over home plate and hitting an outside pitch. When he did, I turned to my girlfriend and said “Get Wall,” thinking the chances of a home run was slight. Of course I misjudged both the depth and location of the hit. It’s early in the season for me too, folks.

The run parade didn’t really stop when The Weave was relieved of his pitching duties after two innings. Jake Woods, and Brandon Morrow combined for three innings of five hit, five walk, six run ball before the Red Sox finally took their foot off the break a bit (more on that in a second). A visibly stoned Jeff Weaver commented “I could have done that.”

The last run was scored when Official Player of Dewey’s House 2007 Eric Hinske (more on this, also) doubled, moved to second when Wily Mo Pena grounded out, and scored on Mike Lowell’s sacrifice fly. When Hinske touched the plate, the score stood at 14-1.

Mike Timlin made his season debut by actually aging on the mound, and gave up two runs.

There was also some chippiness present in the form of Jose Guillen taking umbrage to Brendan Donnelly grabbing his balls after striking him out. The ball grabbing was likely a result of Donnelly taking umbrage to Guillen telling an umpire that he had pine tar on his glove last year. Also, Guillen was a teammate of Donnelly with the Angels and was hit by a pitch, and then publicly too umbrage to no Angel pitcher hitting a batter in retaliation. Donnelly took umbrage to that. Umbrage.

Anyway, Guillen yelled at Donnelly, and Donnelly became a True Red Sox by doing what guys like Boston heroes such as Derek Lowe would do…he grabbed his balls again. Benches cleared, and the situation defused without anyone throwing a sucker punch like Graig Nettles, and no one flipping his shit (I would have loved to see Dustin Pedroia being held back by JD Drew, Wily Mo Pena, and David Ortiz because Willie Bloomquist called him “Little Shit”). It’s almost too bad Guillen and Donnelly never really got in each other’s face, because Guillen is a known loose cannon, and Donnelly just look like he can bench press 700lbs.

Funny line of the exchange? Don Orsillo: “The benches are clearing and Donnelly has removed his glasses.”

Guillen was thrown out of the game, and to defuse the situation more, umpire Phil Cuzzi decided that a 1-1 fastball that hit Kenji Johjima in the ass was intentional enough to throw Donnelly out of the game. I hope Donnelly text messaged Guillen “U R PW3nD” from the clubhouse after.

Jerry Remy also tried to stir some controversy by saying how he might not have scored Hinske on the sacrifice fly. I personally thing two very distinct things about this line of thought…
1. If you are a professional team (not college, but professionals), there is no such thing as running up the score. If you don’t want a team to score that 14th run on a sacrifice fly, then get better pitching.
2. If I were a professional, I would take the embarrassment of being shown up (not by dancing or celebrating that 14th run, but by it scoring in the first place) over having the other team stop trying. I would be endlessly pissed if some team put their bench in the game and stopped trying to play at all. Take the pity elsewhere.

Finally, a housekeeping note. Every year we’ve done this site, there seems to be a Red Sox player I am draw to, and tend to root for a little bit harder than I should. This player is usually an underappreciated non-star player, and he’s always been a hitter. In 2004, it was Mark Bellhorn (we actually had a Bellhorn walk watch, combined with a Youkilis watch when he was called up). In 2005, it was the Youkilis/Roberto Petagine combination. Last season, it was Wily Mo Pena. And this year, it is Eric Hinske. I’m not sure exactly why, other than he looks like the stereotypical frat guy you can find at any college with a Greek life. It’s become a running joke that when he does everything, I say something frat-life related for comedy’s sake.

The reason I’m telling you this is that in the near future, we’re going to have seven days of content on Dewey’s House, at least for the season. We’ll have features (like how we did the best players at every position in Red Sox history), game recaps (like this one) and the like during the week. During Saturday’s we’ll have a prospect report (this will likely start in a few weeks) and then on Sunday mornings, you’ll see kind of my take on the state of baseball for the week, a look at Red Sox games from the weekend, and upcoming, a stat report for the Sox hitters/pitchers, and then MLB power rankings. The tentative title for this project is Eric Hinske and Kappa Epsilon Gamma presents Red Sox Wrap Up.

Huge game tonight. The Fenway debut of Daisuke Matsuzaka against wunderkind Felix Hernandez.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 4/6/2007 9:47 am

So the unbelievable happened yesterday afternoon in Kansas City, something that will likely stay with the Anointed Rookie Savior for the rest of his career.

Alex Gordon got his first major league hit off of what ever guy the Red Sox had pitching.

Also, there were a lot of firsts for Daisuke Matsuzaka, who slipped under the radar all offseason, and this game might give him the attention that he richly deserves. I mean there was hardly any attention given to him even in his native, baseball-crazy Japan!

His was the most anticipated debut for a Red Sox pitcher since Pedro Martinez toed the Oakland rubber for the first time in 1998, and not only did he fail to disappoint, but he actually exceeded already lofty expectations…his first game is fairly close to the dominant performance Martinez had against the Athletics in 98.

Now, in the interest of being a jerk, this game doesn’t really prove anything. Not only are the Royals not good (unless you’re Curt Schilling), but it really is only one game. Matt Clement dominated the for the first part of 2005, and once, Kent Bottenfield was the first to 10 wins. But those are really the only ‘wet blanket’ thing to glean from yesterday performance. Well that, and the distressing lack of Mr Fuji, or Mr Fuji references.

The best thing about how Matsuzaka pitched was his repertoire was exactly as advertised. He utilized four different pitches (slider, 4 seamer, cutter, and changeup) to get strikeouts, and also showed a curve and split finger, to some serious results. He went from straight over the top, to about three quarters delivery, multiplying the amount of actual pitches he can throw to the low three figures.

The end result was 108 (the numbers!) pitches of…well, fun. He pitched seven innings, struck out 10, only gave up six hits, and walked a single hitter, Mark Teahen. He gave up the homer to DeJesus on a fastball that just didn’t dip.

If you get the chance, watch after Daisuke comes out of game…
1. Right when he comes out and is congratulated by everyone, Manny bows
2. Julian Tavarez, while Daisuke is sitting between his legs, giving him a back rub
3. Wily Mo Pena trying to get Daisuke to wave at the camera
Basically, Japan + Dominican Republic = comedy.

Now the Sox Road Show travels to Texas to pit the Sox against the Rangers, who just got served up dirty by the Angels. Tonight is Wakefield against Ramon Tejada, tomorrow is Julian Tavarez against Kevin Millwood, and Sunday, Schilling must avenge his loss on ESPN against the man he was once traded for, Vicente Padilla. Enjoy.

Comments (1)

By Jimmy, 4/2/2007 9:04 am

Hope springs eternal and all that. Today, for the 106th time, a Boston Americans spinner hurls the orb towards an opposing batsman, who stands at the dish with murderous intent in his eye, no doubt. In that memorable 01 season, the American’s didn’t even start their best pitcher, as 25-year-old rookie Win Kellum (20 career wins, 2 with Boston) got the nod over Denton Young against the Baltimore Orioles (the future New York Yankees).

The Orioles got the best of the Americans on that day, and actually swept the opening series, taking the second game from Cy Young.

What I’m saying is that opening day has evolved from something where a oldish (especially for the turn of the century) rookie would get the start to an event that just feels different than other games. Opening Day has a habit of sticking out in your head, even as other games kinda run together…I might not remember who wins the Boston Marathon every year (a Kenyan), but I almost always remember the start from Hopkington.

Here are my five most memorable (not favorite really, but most memorable) Red Sox Opening Days.
5. 2000 Boston Beats Seattle, Scores No More Runs the Rest of The Year
See number 1 on this list, as Pedro pitched the same, it was at the same time and the result was the same. The only difference was it was in Seattle and not Oakland.

I remember this game because I thought maybe Sports Illustrated got one right. They picked the Red Sox to win the World Series that year after two years of making it to the playoffs, and losing to a better team. As it turned out, the only Red Sox that hit all summer were Nomar Garciaparra and Carl Everett and they finished 12th in the American League in runs scored.

4. 1995 No Clemens, Sox Beat the Twins 9-0 at Fenway
The strike was over, but there was still a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Fenway still had 33,000 people in the stands for the late-April matchup.

Even though this amounted to a late Spring Training start, Roger Clemens was hurt, and the Sox were coming off a crappy 1994 (everyone panic!!!) the opener of the 1995 season was a harbinger of things to come…it kicked off a season that insured that the Boston didn’t really need to be saved from the strike (their attendance was actually higher in 95 than 94). As for the game itself, the Sox touched Scott Erickson for two runs, and then notched seven runs off Carl Willis and Vince Horseman. Aaron Sele was only out there for five innings and 65 pitches, but didn’t allow a run (obviously) and only allowed two baserunners…one hit and one walk.

3. 2003 Closer By Committee Deemed Failure
The great part about this game was that my girlfriend (who now would never, ever do this…warrants mentioning) would watch baseball with me but flip back and forth between something she had more interest in. So we almost missed the last part of this game because she was slow getting over from American Idol.

As it turns out, the ban of my popular culture existence would have been a welcome change to the result of this match against the Devil Rays, as a Pedro start was wasted by Alan Embree and Chad Fox giving up five runs in the bottom of the ninth. A game that should have been won 4-1 was instead lost 6-4. Most of the damage was done by Embree, giving up 3 of the runs without recording an out, with Fox getting two outs, walking Marlon Anderson (as he was prone to do) and giving up a three run walkoff to Carl Crawford. Of course, the failing wasn’t Embree’s or Fox’s, it was the matchup bullpen ideology. The next season, the Red Sox won the World Series using a modified version of same.

2. 1989 Sox Lose 5-4 to the Orioles in 11 innings
This was the first OD I was permitted to watch. I was 8 years old, and my mom let me stay home from second grade, mostly because I nagged the hell out of her until she said yes. I was excited because I was too young to understand just how badly the A’s beat the Sox in the last ALCS, and I just knew that the Sox would extract their vengeance on a team that lost 21 games to open the season the year before.

The most memorable about this game for me (other than it popping my cherry) was that with runners on the corners (I looked it up, Randy Milligan on first, Mickey Tettleton on third), Joe Morgan moved Ellis Burks to left center, Dwight Evans to right center, and Mike Greenwell to right behind second base (in the infield). And then took out groundballer Bob Stanley and put in Mike Smithson. Craig Worthington singled sharply to centerfield, Tettleton walked home, and the Red Sox dropped their first four games and essentially sleep walked through the season.

1. 1998 Pedro Makes His Red Sox Debut, wins 2-0.
Despite being now 17 years old, there was no way I could have watched this one. The game started at 10:30pm over here on the East Coast, so I had to set the VCR, and preyed no one talked about the game at school the next day. Luckly, all my school yard chums were in the same predicament. It was actually kind of funny…we were all baseball freaks and no one dared mention Opening Day.

The next day, the school was a-buzz with how Pedro Martinez shut down the Oakland offense. The game itself was fairly uninspiring, if you like hitting, but he notched 11 strikeouts in his 7 innings. He actually had a perfect game going until the 4th when Ben Grieve finally broke through with a single with two outs. The A’s pitcher was Tom Candiotti, starting in his 67th MLB season.

We give you the Gregg Easterbrook ironically named “100% Incorrect or Your Money Back” guarantee for our predictions.
Zach:
AL East Division Winner: Boston Red Sox
AL Central Division Winner: Cleveland Indians
AL West Division Winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wildcard: Toronto Blue Jays
NL East Division Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central Division Winner: Chicago Cubs
NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wildcard: New York Mets
AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
NL Champion: New York Mets
World Series Champion: Boston Red Sox

AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
AL MVP: Vernon Wells
AL Rookie of the Year: Diasuke Matsuzaka
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Jhonny Peralta
AL Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge
AL First Manager Fired: Joe Torre

NL Cy Young: Chris Young
NL MVP: Jose Reyes
NL Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzki
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Randy Johnson
NL Manager of the Year: Ned Yost
NL First Manager Fired: Jerry Narron

Jimmy:
AL East Division Winner: New York
AL Central Division Winner: Detroit
AL West Division Winner: Anaheim
AL Wildcard: Boston
NL East Division Winner: Philly
NL Central Division Winner: Milwaukee
NL West Division Winner: LA
NL Wildcard: Cubs
AL Champion: Boston
NL Champion: Philly
World Series Champion: Philly

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL Rookie of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Sammy Sosa
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington
AL First Manager Fired: Eric Wedge
NL Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano
NL MVP: Alfonso Soriano
NL Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzki
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Barry Bonds
NL Manager of the Year: Sweet Lou
NL First Manager Fired: Jerry Narron

Jeff:
AL East Division Winner: New York
AL Central Division Winner: Cleveland (in the Maple Street Press preview, I picked Minnesota. I changed my mind).
AL West Division Winner: Oakland
AL Wildcard: Boston
NL East Division Winner: New York
NL Central Division Winner: Milwaukee
NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia
AL Champion: Cleveland
NL Champion: Los Angeles
World Series Champion: Cleveland

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Rookie of the Year: Alex Gordon
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Sammy Sosa
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington
AL First Manager Fired: Ozzie Guillen
NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Young (outfielder, not pitcher)
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Barry Bonds
NL Manager of the Year: Ned Yost
NL First Manager Fired: Clint Hurdle

Comments (4)

By Jimmy, 3/19/2007 9:58 am

Boston Herald writer Karen Guregian thinks that the Sox problems would be resolved if they just had a big, heaping bowl of Kevin Millar to snack on.

There is no secret what Millar brings to the clubhouse. His wackiness and keep-it-loose-at-all-costs attitude gets a good amount of credit for the Red Sox coming back against the Yankees in 2004. I can’t speak to the truthiness of that…I wasn’t in the clubhouse, I am not a Major League baseball player, and I have a want to deal in the more tangible aspects of baseball. But right or wrong, Millar gets a bunch of credit for helping create that culture.

Often times though, I am annoyed by the spectre that follows him around. I always saw the idea of Millar being some sort of beneviolent svengali of clubhouses, bending the will of unlike teammates to work toward a common goal of winning baseball games and partyin’ on dude (!) as being more in the mind of the people around the team…with Millar himself being the chief snake oil salesman.

During his time here, the perception of Kevin Millar was that he was a happy clown. I mean, the Born in the USA lip synch from his younger days was worth it’s weight in laughter. But when you look deeper, so saw things like quotes from Terry Francona, saying that “One Millar is fine, but you couldn’t have a team of them”. You saw his skills diminishing, and then bitching about the possibility of him sitting more for other players (“El bencho”).

The worst thing about the Millar experience was that I never got the feeling he really knew his place in the cosmic order of the Red Sox. During 2005, he frequently talked up what he does for the ball club, mentioning his own intangibles, which is kind of like a college student reminding his parents about his 1280 SAT’s when his first report card has a 1.8 on it. He openly campaigned for his spot in the lineup, saying how it was good for the team to have him around. The question that should have been begged, but wasn’t was that if Millar was such a good teammate, why did he put himself before John Olerud, Roberto Petagine and Kevin Youkilis? If he was a positive influence on the clubhouse, if he didn’t keep his spot, why would he pout and poison any chemistry that he might otherwise positively effect?

The other prong in the fraud of Millar was his perceived influence on Manny Ramirez. When the end was neigh, Millar reminded people in a not-so-subtle way that he helped keep Manny in check. Without him…I mean, just imagine the distraction that Manny Ramirez would be! Of course, we don’t have to imagine. Despite being a hitter of prolific nature, Manny is good for one team-wide distraction a season. He was in 2003, and 2004. Also in 2005, and 2006. If Millar had that much of an effect on Manny, why was he such a distraction in the Millar era (03-05) and then again post-Millar? Where, exactly, was Kevin Millar’s influence on the will of Manny Ramirez?

The rest of the article talks about things like how there are no more Idiots, and how Millar thinks the 2004 crew should have been brought back for 2005 (even though the only significant changes to the roster were Cabrera and Pedro)…all the sorts of canned nonsense that people like Bill Simmons eats up. Millar himself will always be a polarizing figure in Red Sox history, at least until the memories of him doing Born in the USA wane. The ironic thing is that his actual contributions to the team (including drawing the walk that lead to the Steal) will probably always be underrated in the shadow of his own intangibled propaganda.

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By Jimmy, 3/8/2007 5:56 pm

One of the benefits of blogging is that once in a while an opportunity comes along where you can write for an actual publication. I had this opportunity this winter, as the Maple Street Press Red Sox preview, written in collaboration with The Sons of Sam Horn, had little ole me write the American League Preview for them.

Basically, I wrote a preview of sorts for the other 13 teams in the American League. It’s misses the general je ne sais quois that I write on here, mostly because I can say how Julian Tavarez looks like a meth head or Jim Hendry looks like he touches kids in my own house. But I think my effort was pretty good overall, and the rest of the book looked fantastic.

So if you want to read the best Red Sox-centric baseball annual, I would say give it a purchase on the chance that you have $15 bones laying around. I realize that a round for 3 with a tip at the local watering hole, so let me just make the offer that if you buy it, I’ll pick up a round for you and your closest friends. No I will, just walk up and ask me.

You can buy it directly from MSP following this link: Maple Street Press 2007 Red Sox Annual, or pick it up from your local multi-national bookstore chain, such as Borders or Barns & Nobel. It’s also listed on Amazon.com for $11.66 new or $9.42 used.