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By Sully, 4/2/2007 10:21 am

Hi gang.  Sully here and I am thrilled to be back per Jeff’s invite to chip in with a little Sox preview.

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Opening Day has arrived and not a moment too soon for eager Sox fans ready to put a disappointing 3rd Place showing in 2006 behind them.  While my reputation doubtless precedes me on the optimism front, there really are lots of reasons to have high hopes for the 2007 edition of the Carmine Hose.

In order to articulate why fans have every reason for high expectations, it would be helpful to have a look at where we have been before we look at where we are going.  The following two charts are remarkable because they show just how mediocre the Sox were last year.  Their stars were excellent, but nearly the whole rest of the roster failed them miserably.  The first chart shows where the Red Sox ranked in OPS amongst American League teams in 2006.  The second chart shows just how awful some of their starting pitching was last season.

  POS          OPS     AL Rank
Catcher       .668       12
First Base    .773       10
Second Base   .698       10
Third Base    .823       3
Shortstop     .674       13
Left Field    .977       1
Center Field  .713       12
Right Field   .777       13
Des. Hitter   1.003      2

Starter     GS   IP   ER   ERA
Clement     12  65.1  48   6.61
Snyder      10   47   33   6.32
Wells       8    47   26   4.95
Dinardo     6   23.2  23   8.75
Pauley      3    16   14   7.88
Johnson     6   29.1  24   7.36
Total       45 228.1  168  6.63

So before factoring off-season acquisition of some excellent talent, just consider how difficult it would be for a middling, small-market team not to improve on some of these numbers.  There are wins for the taking over and above the .500 Pythag 2006 team simply by eliminating some of the terrible performances the above charts outline.  If the case is still not compelling, allow me to ask a series of questions.

Do you think the Red Sox will get more than a .668 OPS out of the catcher position in 2007?  Can they eclipse .800 at first base?  Can Dustin Pedroia be an average offensive 2nd Baseman?  Can Coco Crisp, he of the 119 OPS+ in 2005 and 106 OPS+ in 2004 (80 in 2006), help Sox center fielders improve upon the .713 OPS total they posted last season?  And leaving J.D. Drew aside for a moment, if he were simply handed the reins, could Wily Mo Pena best the .777 OPS Sox right fielders put up last year?

On the pitching side (again, leave Dice-K out of this), could the Sox scrounge together some guys to replace the 45 starts of 6.63 ERA pitching?  Perhaps between Julian Tavarez, Devern Hansack, Kason Gabbard and eventually Jon Lester, the Sox could replace those 45 catostrophic starts with some merely below average output.  And there is more to the story than meets the eye when it comes to those 45 starts.  In these games, hurlers averaged only five innings per start, leading to incremental bullpen taxation.  Cleaning up last year’s starting pitching mess with mediocrities as opposed to atrocities would go a long way in shoring things up.  And finally, what about Josh Beckett?  Think he has more than a 92 ERA+ in him this season?

See where I am going?  Even before you factor the best pitching acquisition any team made this off-season, the addition of a perennial .300/.400/.500 candidate to take over in right field and the signing of a consistently solid if unspectacular offensive shortstop, the optimism case is strong.  But when you mix Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo into the 2007 picture, things really start to get interesting.  The “there’s just no way they can be any worse” argument bounces you from about 81 wins (their 2006 Pythag total) to the mid-to-high 80’s.  The above triumverate, along with a collection of live bullpen arms that figure to help, get you closer to a total pushing mid-to-high 90’s.

I could go position by position and toss out a projection for each position but readers of this site already know the ballpark expectations for each of the Sox players.  Readers also probably understand that injuries can put a damper on even the most promising teams and this collection of Red Sox is laden with injury risk, if for no other reason than its age.  While the majority of their 30+’ers have proven resilient over their careers, age alone comes with enough injury risk to temper enthusiasm.  But 80 starts out of Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Beckett, 140 games for Drew and 125 for Jason Varitek and this team should hang right with the Yanks all season long.  Those totals are all optimistic, however, and the Red Sox will need as much injury luck this season as they had misfortune last year in order to have a crack at the division.  Says here that karma owes ‘em one and they stay relatively healthy.

Look for the Sox to contend for the Division title and, at worst, glide to the Wild Card.

Prediction: 94-68 
 

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By Sully, 1/7/2007 6:48 pm

This will be my last post on Dewey’s House.  It’s been a blast, and allowed me to have an outlet to share some of my thoughts and opinions on two of the things I love most in this world; baseball and the Boston Red Sox.  Lo and behold, some of you even liked to hear what I had to say.  What this opportunity that Jeff Kuhn extended to me three years ago has also afforded me is one of the most unlikely and special friendships I have ever forged with another individual.

Over the last two-plus years, Rich Lederer, proprietor and chief contributor of the Baseball Analysts, has become a real pal.  If you read this site from time to time, you most likely know of Rich’s site, its widespread influence and consistent high-quality output.  What you probably do not know is the coincidental circumstances that led to our friendship. 

Rich lives in Long Beach, California, about a half-mile from where my wife grew up.  While we would trade emails and IM’s from time to time about baseball, it was not until we discovered these coincidences that our frienship started to blossom.  Rich’s son Joe even went to middle school with my wife Johanna.     

Rich joined a bunch of my best pals at Trump National LA for a golf outing on Thursday, December 28 and attended my wedding last Saturday, the 30th.  The ceremony was held at a church that more or less split the difference between Rich’s house and Johanna’s childhood home, and then Rich joined us for one helluva party in Palos Verdes.  I left for Cabo San Lucas on New Year’s Eve, returned on Thursday and met up with Rich for some Happy Hour cocktails back in Long Beach last Friday.

It was there that we solidified plans for me to become a contributor to his site.  It was one of the most flattering offers I have ever received and a no-brainer for a couple of reasons.  One, with my new job, I have less time to update as often as I would like.  I have been posting a paragraph here and there every now and again but have not been producing anything of real length or quality (though I was pleased with my long JD Drew entry).  I will be posting just once a week on Rich’s site, and his editing and idea generation will help me to maximize my output given my time, and let’s face it, ability constraints.  The second reason is obvious.  Rich’s site is a real standout in an increasingly crowded blogosphere, and his invitation allows me a larger platform.  I don’t do this professionally and don’t think I have any real ambition with respect to writing, but I do want to be the best writer I can be and joining the Baseball Analysts helps me to pursue that end.

Finally, I would like to thank Jeff.  Jeff started Dewey’s House, is its most creative and thoughtful voice and knows more about baseball than most people have forgotten.  I would never have even considered blogging had Jeff not extended this invite.  Three-and-a-half years, a friend for life and one helluva cool opportunity later, I can safely say that blogging has been one of the most rewarding experiences of my life.  Jeff has told me that he does not have plans for the future of the site yet, but will make an announcement shortly.

Thanks for stopping by over the years and I look forward to your continued readership at the Baseball Analysts.

Comments (1)

By Sully, 12/19/2006 9:17 am

The I-told-you-so gang is out in full force talking about how JD Drew is in fact damaged goods and how the Sox should have stayed away from the outset.  Well sure, maybe he does in fact have lingering health concerns, and that’s why there’s this thing called the physical before dotting I’s and crossing T’s.  The Red Sox are performing diligence to make sure that he is not in fact damaged goods.  If he is, they will either not sign him or renegotiate more favorable terms to bring the risk/reward characteristics of the deal more into line.  On the other hand, if this microscopic look at Drew’s health situation offers them another layer of security regarding their investment, all the better.

In other words, I just don’t see any downside here.

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By Sully, 12/15/2006 10:00 am

My favorite baseball quote in a while comes from the original idiot (or was that Millar?).

“There’s not too many first basemen who could save two, three runs a game,” Damon said, “but I’ve seen Doug Mientkiewicz do it and it’s amazing.

Wow.

Link to article.

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By Sully,

I have held off on chiming in because I didn’t have much value to add.  My pals that seem to know a lot about this whole situation are really psyched, and ZIPS and PECOTA and the other good projection mechanisms think that D-Mat will be a tremendous asset.  I will put up a roster overview soon enough but get pumped, Sox fans.  This is going to be one dynamic squad that we will be treated to in 2007. 

Pitchers & catchers in a couple months or so…

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By Sully, 12/8/2006 9:05 am

Hats off to Nick Cafardo for this piece in today’s Globe containing a number of great J.D. Drew quotes.

“I’m not a rah-rah guy and never have been. That’s not who I am. I’ve never been [a] show boat, or thrown my helmet or my bat or tried to upstage anyone. Maybe sometimes those types of players get the attention and I don’t. I’m not going to try to be something I’m not. I try to lead by example.”

If you’re one of these provincial types that carries on about how hard it is to play baseball in Boston (w/o any sense of irony no less) and how J.D. Drew is unfit to play here or do much else in life really, I urge you to check this article out. 

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By Sully, 12/5/2006 7:48 pm

All we know at this point is that the Red Sox have added J.D. Drew.  That, on its own, is a very good thing.  The money is not yours, and in a market that doles out $100MM to the Carlos Lee’s of the world, is really not all that bad anyway.

Welcome, J.D.  Looking forward to big things.

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By Sully,

Jon Heyman of SI has the Dodgers and Angels still involved while Yahoo Sports has the Padres back in the picture, and mentions Seattle, San Francisco and Washington to boot.  Just when you think the market is heating up for Manny, the Herald reports that the Sox are no longer being proactive, simply listening and have even set a deadline of tomorrow for conducting Manny talks.  Is the market cooling?

Boston is in a position of strength here, and conducting themselves accordingly.  Stay tuned.

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By Sully, 12/2/2006 10:36 pm

Boston declined Trot Nixon arbitration last night and so ends the Red Sox career of a true fan favorite.  Trot has always been one of my faves as well, and not because of the pine tar on his helmet but rather because I always thought he just understood what it took to be the best offensive player he could be.  He would swing at a pitch outside the strike zone about once a month and was never overmatched.  For much of his tenure with the Sox, he played a damn good right field too.  In 2003, he was a downright superstar.  I thought I would pay my own tribute by offering up a little trip down Trot-memory lane by linking to the 5 games in Trot’s career that stand out the most for me.

5) Labor Day, 2003

After plodding through August, at the end of which they found themselves trailing in both the division and wild card races, the Sox went to Philadelphia for a make-up game with the Phills.  After squandering the lead in the bottom of the eighth, the Sox clawed their way back through a combination of a bases on balls, a wild pitch and an infield hit to tie the game at 9.  Trot came to the plate with the bases full and delivered a grand slam to give the Sox a 13-9 victory.  Boston would go 17-9 in September.

4) October 27, 2004 – Game 4 of the 2004 World Series

Trot has always been a patient hitter, thereby allowing him to zero in when the count was in his favor.  Up in the count, he had the discipline to lay off a bad pitch and therefore had the luxury of really gearing up in case a cookie came grooved down the middle.  Over his career, Trot has hit .253/.605/.506 in three-ball counts.  So when he got up 3 balls and 0 strikes with the bases loaded, two outs, the Sox leading 1-0 in the 3rd and the mediocre Jason Marquis on the hill, Terry Francona gave Trot the green light.  He delivered with a two-run double high off the Busch Stadium wall in center field.  It was the defining moment of the World Series clinching game.

3) October 15, 2003 – Game 6 of the 2003 ALCS

With the Sox clinging to a paper thin 7-6 lead in the ninth inning, Bill Mueller doubled with one out off of Jeff Nelson.  Since Trot was coming up (he was batting lower in the order because Andy Pettitte, a southpaw, had started the game), Joe Torre went and got his lefty reliever Gabe White to face Nixon and try to keep the insurance off the board.  White would hang a breaking ball that Nixon deposited in the upper deck of Yankee Stadium to give the Sox a 9-6 lead.  I was living in Boston’s North End at the time and I remember opening my window and yelling out into the night.  I wasn’t the only one.  Neighbors screamed back and forth to one another, “we’re gonna do it,” “Pedro goes tomorrow night,” “way to go, Trot!”  Little did we know how the series would end.

2) October 4, 2003 – Game 3 of the ALDS

Not much to say, really.  I happened to be in attendance at this one and it is the only time I can remember hugging multiple strangers in succession.  With Oakland’s lefty-killer Ted Lilly starting the game, Trot was on the bench but boy did he come off of it in a big way.  In the bottom of the 11th of a game (and a Series for that matter) the Sox really should have lost (remember Eric Byrnes missed the plate), Nixon put one into the CF bleachers off of young Rich Harden to give the Sox a walk-off, 3-1 victory.  The bomb set off utter jubilation in Fenway, and the Sox rode the momentum to a dramatic victory against a feisty young Athletics squad.

1) May 28, 2000 – The Pedro-Clemens Epic

Pedro pitched a complete game shutout, striking out nine and yielding just four hits.  Clemens went the distance too, striking out 13 (thirteen!) and giving up only five hits.  The Sox looked like they would go quietly in the ninth, as John Valentin and Jason Varitek made successive outs to kick off the vistors’ half of the final frame.  Then Jeff Frye managed a single and Nixon came to the plate.  Nixon would drive a 2-1 Roger Clemens fastball deep into the right-center field bleachers at The Stadium, and forever endear himself to Red Sox Nation.  Think about it, Sox-Yanks, Pedro-Clemens, in the Bronx and Trot stepped up.  Clutch and never overmatched, it was quintessential Christopher Trotman Nixon.

Godspeed, my man.

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By Sully,

Long-respected hub journalistic staples, delusional interweb hacks and ordinarily thoughtful bloggers alike are tripping over themselves to kill JD Drew before he even hits the tarmac at Logan.  At best all I can say is that a local baseball loving public deserves better analysis from its “sports experts” and at worst I will say that those lining up to take their shots at Drew carry on like self-aggrandizing blowhards, positioning themselves to cheer on the hometown team unaccountably if wrong, and pat themselves on the back if right.

Said Bob Ryan the other day during a conference call Theo Epstein was kind enough to schedule with the local media, “On behalf of an eager constituency, let’s hope the rumor is not true. Thank you.”  How courteous, Bob.

We have come to expect hackery from the Dirt Dog, but an anti-Drew petition?  Really?  Already as low as they come, Dirt Dog has yet managed a new one.  Dirt Dog runs a “fansite,” with pictures and big font and little more and so he has to figure out ways to maintain fan interest.  Of course when it comes to the running of his site, he’s morally bankrupt and perpetually unaccountable, so you see what he is up to with Drew.  I mean he kills Manny all the time too.  What does he propose the Sox do?  But it’s always so transparent what’s going on over there.  If the Sox are going good, he’ll see his traffic.  If they’re not, a rabid fanbase will turn to the Dirt Dog to assail those Red Sox not living up to expectations.  Either way, he’s covered. 

Fantastic internet voices like Chad Finn don’t want to see any part of Drew, either.  Says Finn today…

I’m with Ryan. What’s the fascination, Theo? I know the skill-set and the OPS is appealing . . . but damn, it’s time to start giving consideration again to a player’s mental makeup. I’m tired of watching this supposedly progressive front office throw multimillion contracts to well-known Cowardly Lions who will shrivel under the scrutiny.

Of course Chad does not offer up any specific insight into Drew’s character, but has no problem dubbing him a “Cowardly Lion.”  What’s sad is that I am beginning to believe that a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts may be taking hold here.  Drew is human, after all, and if all one is greeted with at the outset of a new employment opportunity is skepticisim and snide commentary about his or her mental state, well, that might adversely affect an individual.

What the Drew discourse needs is an injection of reality, and so let me proceed with a series of facts relating to JD Drew, and further, to Drew as he stacks up to the rumored-to-be-departing Manny Ramirez.

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First, a Drew career recap:

He came up with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1998 at the age of 22 and lit the league on fire for the month of September.  In 1999 and 2000, Drew was pretty good (superb in 2000) but St. Louis Manager Tony LaRussa never entrusted him with a truly full-time job.  That changed in 2001, when Drew put up a superb .323/.414/.623 campaign, albeit in a season cut short by a David Wells fastball that hit him square on the wrist.  Wells, then of the Chicago White Sox, hit Drew on June 17 during an interleague tilt.  Although he finished the season strong thereafter, Drew would not see action again until July 31.

Drew experienced legitimately chronic and frustrating injury troubles in 2002 and 2003.  Recurring patellar tendinitis in his right knee limited Drew to 711 AB’s in the two seasons combined.  Frustrated, the Cards shipped Drew off to Atlanta after the 2003 campaign.

He went crazy in 2004.  Injury free and locked in, Drew put up his best season as a pro, hitting .304/.436/.569 in 645 plate appearences, all the while playing a very good right field.  Drew cashed in on his career season by signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers before the 2005 season.  Once again he put up stellar numbers, this time in spacious Dodger Stadium, hitting .286/.412/.520.  Problem was, just as he had his 2001 breakout season cut short by a David Wells fastball, so too was his 2005 cut short.  Brad Halsey plunked him on the wrist on July 3 and Drew would miss the rest of the season.

This past season, with Grady Little babying him all season long, he logged 146 games played and 594 plate appearences.  He once again played a solid right field, and hit .283/.393/.498 – a tremendous line for a guy playing home games at Dodger Stadium.

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Which brings us to the present.  Drew turned 31 just 11 days ago.  He has been chronic injury free for three full seasons now and really his whole career except for 2002 and 2003.  This is not to say that his hitting style might not lend itself to HBP’s or that his bones may not be more brittle than the next MLB’er (both things may be true).  That said, I am comfortable slotting the HBP’s into the fluke category, which thereby mitigates the perceived injury risk that a Drew signing bears. 

Since 2004, here is how he compares to one Manny Ramirez.  I resort to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP1, a catch-all stat that seeks to incorporate offense and defense and determine how many wins over and above a replacement player a given pitcher or position player contributes.  The figure is admittedly imperfect, but a good proxy nonetheless:

2004 WARP1
Drew: 9.4
Manny: 6.8

2005 WARP1
Drew: 3.9 (although a .321 EQA)
Manny: 6.9 (.317 EQA)

2006 WARP1
Drew: 7.3
Manny: 6.3

Total (2004-2006)
Drew: 20.6
Manny: 20.0

So what we have in Drew is a guy who has been a better player than Ramirez over the last three seasons, is 3.5 years his junior and played more games in 2006. 

And yet, here is the media (and others) eager to sack the man.  Well, be above it, Sox fans.  At least give the guy a chance.

Update: To be clear, the Drew or Manny argument is not necessarily material to the big-picture Red Sox roster optimization discussion.  Drew is not Manny’s replacement.  I included the comparison above simply to point out that Drew stacks up quite favorably to Manny irrespective of who may or may not be replacing whom. 

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By Sully, 11/29/2006 9:06 am

Gordon Edes has a good wrap-up of where things stand on the J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez fronts. 

It appears as though there is no shortage of suitors for Manny in the NL West, a good thing to the extent that those teams will all not only want Manny’s services, but also to keep him away from their competition.  Theoretically, this would drive his price up.  I have to be honest, but NL West teams seem like the last lot that should be getting involved for Manny.  Can you imagine Manny chasing down gappers at Petco, Chavez Ravine, Coors and whatever the name of that gem the Giants play in is these days?  His defense will be atrocious, rendering him a very good player and not the great one so many who want to ignore defense believe he is.

As far as being close on Drew, this is a very good thing folks.  He’s a fantastic all-around baseball player.

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By Sully, 11/25/2006 8:25 am

Carlos Lee signed with the Houston Astros yesterday for 6 years, $100 million.  Carlos Lee is a burly corner outfielder who doesn’t draw many walks, can’t field a lick and shouldn’t age well.  There is nothing that Carlos Lee does that Manny Ramirez does not do better.  While Lee’s OPS+ hovers in the 120 range on average, Ramirez turns in seasons between 150 and 170 year in and year out.  They are both pretty crummy fielders.  But if you are a team looking to add a bat on this market, would you rather commit $100 million to a barely above average corner OF or $38 million, a couple of prospects and an MLB-ready player for a bona fide Hall-of-Famer that will surely outproduce Lee and be off your books just as Lee is beginning to suck anyway in a couple of seasons.

So here’s the blueprint for Boston: Get Matsuzaka done, get Drew done.  Don’t be bashful with these two contracts, as the market is what it is – pinching pennies with Scott Boras in this market is a good way to end up with Lenny Dinardo and David Murphy playing prominent roles on the 2007 club.  While getting these two locked up, be looking to move Manny.  Not only is he affordable in this market, he’s a downright bargain.  Snag a couple of prospects and another average-plus hitting OF or corner IF.  With the money freed up from the Manny deal, go and get Julio Lugo, an uninspiring but solid choice to man SS over the next few seasons.  He rakes at Fenway Park so the potential for stardom is there, but even if his .384/.496 career Fenway OB/SLG numbers prove illusory, he should be above average, a differentiating characteristic in and of itself for this free-agent class. 

And that really should do it.  Easier said than done I understand but while the crazy contracts being given out to players ranging from black holes to mediocrities complicate the signings of Matsuzaka and Drew, they also offer an opportunity to unload Ramirez and fetch some real booty. 

Hold on tight – it should be a wild month.

Comments (3)

By Sully, 11/21/2006 2:56 pm

The third best player on the Twins edged Derek Jeter for the MVP award today.  I have been a vocal critic of awards voting over the years, but this is an Andre Dawson-style sham. 

I am sure these guys will have plenty to say.

Comments (5)

By Sully,

Get them done.  Sign JD Drew, sign Julio Lugo.  Bite the bullet and move on.  In a market where Juan Pierre, he of the 81 OPS+ in 2006, commands $45MM over 5 years there are no bargains to be had, no values to be found.  So just make sure that the dollars you do commit go to actual good players.

Fun fact (ok, maybe not so fun for Dodger fans):  In 152 career plate appearances at Chavez Ravine, Pierre has hit .281/.333/.331.

And yet, in this LA Times story, Ned Colletti has the stones to come out with this quote:

“This man gets on base an awful lot…”

No Ned, but JD Drew sure gets on base “an awful lot.”

Comments (3)

By Sully, 11/17/2006 8:51 am

This is just a terrible bit of analysis by Eric Wilbur.

In Drew, the Red Sox are guaranteed to lose some of their core audience, which is already seriously suspicious of many of their recent moves.

Wilbur evidences this claim by pointing out that Drew is just like Trot Nixon (he’s not), Philly fans dislike him (they do) and Bill Plaschke liked to kill him in the LA Times.

Barring freak injuries (like the 2005 HBP), Drew is a guaranteed 550 PA, .900 OPS type who is going to play a great outfield.  So yeah, I suppose he is a little like Trot – the Trot of 2003 that is.

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By Sully, 10/1/2006 6:54 am

In an otherwise informative and thoughtful look at the job Theo Epstein and his Baseball Operations staff have done in 2006, Gordo champions the Manny Ramirez addition-by-subtraction cause by mentioning the 2001 Mariners.

Imagine, for a moment, the Sox replacing Ramírez with, say, a .259 hitter, one who hit just five home runs. Disaster, right? Well, that’s what the Seattle Mariners did when they didn’t re-sign Alex Rodriguez, after a 2000 season in which he hit 41 home runs, drove in 132 and scored 134 — numbers even more meaningful because they were produced by a shortstop — and replaced him with Carlos Guillen, the .259 hitter in question. In 2001, the Mariners won 116 games.

So the Mariners elininated A-Rod, brought in a clubhouse ping-pong table and water bubbler and that’s how they won 116 games?  Or do you think it may have had something to do with Bret Boone’s arrival (.331/.372/.578, 141 RBI)?  And did you know that the Rookie of the Year and League MVP in 2001 just so happened not to be on the club in 2000?   His name is Ichiro Suzuki and I am pretty sure he helped to make up some of A-Rod’s production.  Did you know the team OPS+ in 2000 was a very solid 111 but improved in 2001 to 119 thanks to Boone and Suzuki, as well as significant upticks in play from John Olerud, Mike Cameron and Mark McLemore. 

On the run prevention side, the 2000 Mariners were just about dead average – they sported a 101 ERA+.  Freddy Garcia and Paul Abbott were solid enough but the rotation also featured two soft-tossing left handers that both posted ERA’s north of five.  The bullpen, as it would be in 2001, was very good.  Where the enormous difference was made – how they went from an average pitching/defense unit to the very best basically came from two guys.  Freddy Garcia went from nice mid-rotation guy to bona fide front end horse, tossing nearly 239 innings with an ERA that barely exceeded three.  Jamie Moyer went from Joe Hesketh to Andy Pettitte in terms of output between 2000 and 2001, looking like a replacement level guy the first year only to find himself on the shortlist of the AL’s very best starters the next.  The M’s surrendered a league-low 627 runs in 2001.

I write this simply to demonstrate that Edes’s point is at best incompetently presented and at worst an intentional omission of facts to keep fighting the good fight against Manny Ramirez.  You don’t get better simply by subtracting HOF-caliber talent and replacing it with run-of-the-mill guys.  What works is when you get significant improvement/career years from some of your holdovers (Olerud, Sele, Garcia, Cameron, Moyer, McLemore, Rhodes) while adding to the mix two players that turn in MVP-caliber seasons of their own (Boone and Suzuki).   

So yeah, if Beckett turns in a Cy Young 2007, Schilling is lights out, the Sox go and get two MVP-candidates to fill out their lineup, Jonathan Papelbon turns out to be a very good starter, Jason Varitek and Coco Crisp return to form and Dustin Pedroia becomes a top-10 2B then sure, the Sox very well could afford to see Manny walk.  But this notion that Edes floats wherein he more or less asserts that simply by virtue of taking Manny away the Red Sox would stand to gain is just preposterous. 

Comments (1)

By Sully, 9/22/2006 6:43 am

Pretty Cool.

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By Sully, 9/19/2006 7:45 am

Dodgers 9th
Jon Adkins pitching:
Jeff Kent: Ball, Kent homered to center
J.D. Drew: Strike looking, ball, ball, Drew homered to right
Trevor Hoffman relieved Jon Adkins:
Russell Martin: Martin homered to left center
Marlon Anderson: Anderson homered to right

This is from CBS Sportsline’s play-by-play page of last night’s Dodgers-Padres tilt.  The Dodgers, trailing by four in the ninth, hit four consecutive solo shots to tie it up…only to lose the lead in the visitor’s half of the tenth, and then ultimately win on a two-run shot by Nomar Garciaparra in the bottom half.  The Dodgers re-took the lead in the NL West as a result of the win. 

It was the sort of victory that propels teams to do glorious things.  Keep your eyes open, baseball-loving Sox fans.  There is still a lot of enjoyment to be experienced this season.

Comments (2)

By Sully, 9/13/2006 7:46 am

The Red Sox ran their record to 12-1 against the O’s this season, which is simultaneously fun and depressing.  Fun in the sense that the Sox own a division foe to the extent that they do, depressing in the sense that their record against all other Big League competition gets unimpresive quickly when you take Baltimore out of the mix.

Anyway, here is the game recap, half of which for one reason or another Edes devotes to allowing David Ortiz clarify his MVP position.  I never really had much of a problem with Papi’s comments – he’s dead wrong for what it’s worth - but they were not malicious.  This notion that one must hit 40 bombs and drive in 120 runs in order to even qualify for MVP consideration is just beyond silly, however.

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Carlos Guillen, another one of these non-40 home run types that is pretty darn valuable himself, last night hit two home runs including a walk-off and helped the Tigers squeek out a badly needed win against Texas.  I was actually watching this game on MLB EI last night and wondering to myself how it was that the Tigers had managed to play .333 ball over the last 33 games.  There are multiple answers of course but chief among them is that this team no longer hits at all.  Granted the pitching has been this team’s strength all season long and though it has fallen off its more or less historic pace, has continued to be the team’s best asset in the second half.

The main problem is that while the Tigers sported a more than adequate, 9th best in MLB .788 OPS up to the All-Star Break, since, they have managed just a 25th ranked .740 team OPS.  Well above average offensive contributors in the first half, Curtis Granderson, Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez have been awful of late.  Post-ASB numbers for all three (BA/OB/SLG):

Granderson: .229/.286/.333
Pudge: .276/.298/.378
Magglio: .265/.310/.384 

Over this terrible 11-22 stretch, Detroit has managed just 118 runs, or just north of 3.5 a game.  That’s just not going to get it done.

On the pitching side, outside of Jeremy Bonderman’s slide, they look fine.  Bonderman is still a very good pitcher too, it would not be the least bit surprising to see him return to form.  With or without a high-quality Bonderman, Detroit has a playoff-capable rotation with Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers.  A returned-to-form Bonderman elevates it from adequate to formidable.

If the Tigers are going to hold on and then make any noise come playoff time however, it will be the offense that will need to step up.  Curtis Granderson, Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez are all too good to be letting down their team the way they have been.  It’s not too late, but time is ticking and the pressure is on these three to play closer to their respective ability levels.

Comments (1)

By Sully, 9/11/2006 11:03 am

Can you imagine the media meltdown that would ensue if Manny took an opportunity to pimp himself for MVP consideration in the middle of his team’s freefall?

Oh and David, you are not the MVP.  You are probably a top-5 candidate, but the guy you say you are better than – that Jeter fellow – he’s been better than you this year and with Travis Hafner hurt, should be the run-away winner.