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Opening Day has arrived and not a moment too soon for eager Sox fans ready to put a disappointing 3rd Place showing in 2006 behind them.  While my reputation doubtless precedes me on the optimism front, there really are lots of reasons to have high hopes for the 2007 edition of the Carmine Hose.

In order to articulate why fans have every reason for high expectations, it would be helpful to have a look at where we have been before we look at where we are going.  The following two charts are remarkable because they show just how mediocre the Sox were last year.  Their stars were excellent, but nearly the whole rest of the roster failed them miserably.  The first chart shows where the Red Sox ranked in OPS amongst American League teams in 2006.  The second chart shows just how awful some of their starting pitching was last season.

  POS          OPS     AL Rank
Catcher       .668       12
First Base    .773       10
Second Base   .698       10
Third Base    .823       3
Shortstop     .674       13
Left Field    .977       1
Center Field  .713       12
Right Field   .777       13
Des. Hitter   1.003      2

Starter     GS   IP   ER   ERA
Clement     12  65.1  48   6.61
Snyder      10   47   33   6.32
Wells       8    47   26   4.95
Dinardo     6   23.2  23   8.75
Pauley      3    16   14   7.88
Johnson     6   29.1  24   7.36
Total       45 228.1  168  6.63

So before factoring off-season acquisition of some excellent talent, just consider how difficult it would be for a middling, small-market team not to improve on some of these numbers.  There are wins for the taking over and above the .500 Pythag 2006 team simply by eliminating some of the terrible performances the above charts outline.  If the case is still not compelling, allow me to ask a series of questions.

Do you think the Red Sox will get more than a .668 OPS out of the catcher position in 2007?  Can they eclipse .800 at first base?  Can Dustin Pedroia be an average offensive 2nd Baseman?  Can Coco Crisp, he of the 119 OPS+ in 2005 and 106 OPS+ in 2004 (80 in 2006), help Sox center fielders improve upon the .713 OPS total they posted last season?  And leaving J.D. Drew aside for a moment, if he were simply handed the reins, could Wily Mo Pena best the .777 OPS Sox right fielders put up last year?

On the pitching side (again, leave Dice-K out of this), could the Sox scrounge together some guys to replace the 45 starts of 6.63 ERA pitching?  Perhaps between Julian Tavarez, Devern Hansack, Kason Gabbard and eventually Jon Lester, the Sox could replace those 45 catostrophic starts with some merely below average output.  And there is more to the story than meets the eye when it comes to those 45 starts.  In these games, hurlers averaged only five innings per start, leading to incremental bullpen taxation.  Cleaning up last year’s starting pitching mess with mediocrities as opposed to atrocities would go a long way in shoring things up.  And finally, what about Josh Beckett?  Think he has more than a 92 ERA+ in him this season?

See where I am going?  Even before you factor the best pitching acquisition any team made this off-season, the addition of a perennial .300/.400/.500 candidate to take over in right field and the signing of a consistently solid if unspectacular offensive shortstop, the optimism case is strong.  But when you mix Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo into the 2007 picture, things really start to get interesting.  The “there’s just no way they can be any worse” argument bounces you from about 81 wins (their 2006 Pythag total) to the mid-to-high 80′s.  The above triumverate, along with a collection of live bullpen arms that figure to help, get you closer to a total pushing mid-to-high 90′s.

I could go position by position and toss out a projection for each position but readers of this site already know the ballpark expectations for each of the Sox players.  Readers also probably understand that injuries can put a damper on even the most promising teams and this collection of Red Sox is laden with injury risk, if for no other reason than its age.  While the majority of their 30+’ers have proven resilient over their careers, age alone comes with enough injury risk to temper enthusiasm.  But 80 starts out of Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Beckett, 140 games for Drew and 125 for Jason Varitek and this team should hang right with the Yanks all season long.  Those totals are all optimistic, however, and the Red Sox will need as much injury luck this season as they had misfortune last year in order to have a crack at the division.  Says here that karma owes ‘em one and they stay relatively healthy.

Look for the Sox to contend for the Division title and, at worst, glide to the Wild Card.

Prediction: 94-68 
 

Over the last two-plus years, Rich Lederer, proprietor and chief contributor of the Baseball Analysts, has become a real pal.  If you read this site from time to time, you most likely know of Rich’s site, its widespread influence and consistent high-quality output.  What you probably do not know is the coincidental circumstances that led to our friendship. 

Rich lives in Long Beach, California, about a half-mile from where my wife grew up.  While we would trade emails and IM’s from time to time about baseball, it was not until we discovered these coincidences that our frienship started to blossom.  Rich’s son Joe even went to middle school with my wife Johanna.     

Rich joined a bunch of my best pals at Trump National LA for a golf outing on Thursday, December 28 and attended my wedding last Saturday, the 30th.  The ceremony was held at a church that more or less split the difference between Rich’s house and Johanna’s childhood home, and then Rich joined us for one helluva party in Palos Verdes.  I left for Cabo San Lucas on New Year’s Eve, returned on Thursday and met up with Rich for some Happy Hour cocktails back in Long Beach last Friday.

It was there that we solidified plans for me to become a contributor to his site.  It was one of the most flattering offers I have ever received and a no-brainer for a couple of reasons.  One, with my new job, I have less time to update as often as I would like.  I have been posting a paragraph here and there every now and again but have not been producing anything of real length or quality (though I was pleased with my long JD Drew entry).  I will be posting just once a week on Rich’s site, and his editing and idea generation will help me to maximize my output given my time, and let’s face it, ability constraints.  The second reason is obvious.  Rich’s site is a real standout in an increasingly crowded blogosphere, and his invitation allows me a larger platform.  I don’t do this professionally and don’t think I have any real ambition with respect to writing, but I do want to be the best writer I can be and joining the Baseball Analysts helps me to pursue that end.

Finally, I would like to thank Jeff.  Jeff started Dewey’s House, is its most creative and thoughtful voice and knows more about baseball than most people have forgotten.  I would never have even considered blogging had Jeff not extended this invite.  Three-and-a-half years, a friend for life and one helluva cool opportunity later, I can safely say that blogging has been one of the most rewarding experiences of my life.  Jeff has told me that he does not have plans for the future of the site yet, but will make an announcement shortly.

Thanks for stopping by over the years and I look forward to your continued readership at the Baseball Analysts.

In other words, I just don’t see any downside here.

“There’s not too many first basemen who could save two, three runs a game,” Damon said, “but I’ve seen Doug Mientkiewicz do it and it’s amazing.

Wow.

Link to article.

Pitchers & catchers in a couple months or so…

“I’m not a rah-rah guy and never have been. That’s not who I am. I’ve never been [a] show boat, or thrown my helmet or my bat or tried to upstage anyone. Maybe sometimes those types of players get the attention and I don’t. I’m not going to try to be something I’m not. I try to lead by example.”

If you’re one of these provincial types that carries on about how hard it is to play baseball in Boston (w/o any sense of irony no less) and how J.D. Drew is unfit to play here or do much else in life really, I urge you to check this article out. 

Welcome, J.D.  Looking forward to big things.

Boston is in a position of strength here, and conducting themselves accordingly.  Stay tuned.

5) Labor Day, 2003

After plodding through August, at the end of which they found themselves trailing in both the division and wild card races, the Sox went to Philadelphia for a make-up game with the Phills.  After squandering the lead in the bottom of the eighth, the Sox clawed their way back through a combination of a bases on balls, a wild pitch and an infield hit to tie the game at 9.  Trot came to the plate with the bases full and delivered a grand slam to give the Sox a 13-9 victory.  Boston would go 17-9 in September.

4) October 27, 2004 – Game 4 of the 2004 World Series

Trot has always been a patient hitter, thereby allowing him to zero in when the count was in his favor.  Up in the count, he had the discipline to lay off a bad pitch and therefore had the luxury of really gearing up in case a cookie came grooved down the middle.  Over his career, Trot has hit .253/.605/.506 in three-ball counts.  So when he got up 3 balls and 0 strikes with the bases loaded, two outs, the Sox leading 1-0 in the 3rd and the mediocre Jason Marquis on the hill, Terry Francona gave Trot the green light.  He delivered with a two-run double high off the Busch Stadium wall in center field.  It was the defining moment of the World Series clinching game.

3) October 15, 2003 – Game 6 of the 2003 ALCS

With the Sox clinging to a paper thin 7-6 lead in the ninth inning, Bill Mueller doubled with one out off of Jeff Nelson.  Since Trot was coming up (he was batting lower in the order because Andy Pettitte, a southpaw, had started the game), Joe Torre went and got his lefty reliever Gabe White to face Nixon and try to keep the insurance off the board.  White would hang a breaking ball that Nixon deposited in the upper deck of Yankee Stadium to give the Sox a 9-6 lead.  I was living in Boston’s North End at the time and I remember opening my window and yelling out into the night.  I wasn’t the only one.  Neighbors screamed back and forth to one another, “we’re gonna do it,” “Pedro goes tomorrow night,” “way to go, Trot!”  Little did we know how the series would end.

2) October 4, 2003 – Game 3 of the ALDS

Not much to say, really.  I happened to be in attendance at this one and it is the only time I can remember hugging multiple strangers in succession.  With Oakland’s lefty-killer Ted Lilly starting the game, Trot was on the bench but boy did he come off of it in a big way.  In the bottom of the 11th of a game (and a Series for that matter) the Sox really should have lost (remember Eric Byrnes missed the plate), Nixon put one into the CF bleachers off of young Rich Harden to give the Sox a walk-off, 3-1 victory.  The bomb set off utter jubilation in Fenway, and the Sox rode the momentum to a dramatic victory against a feisty young Athletics squad.

1) May 28, 2000 – The Pedro-Clemens Epic

Pedro pitched a complete game shutout, striking out nine and yielding just four hits.  Clemens went the distance too, striking out 13 (thirteen!) and giving up only five hits.  The Sox looked like they would go quietly in the ninth, as John Valentin and Jason Varitek made successive outs to kick off the vistors’ half of the final frame.  Then Jeff Frye managed a single and Nixon came to the plate.  Nixon would drive a 2-1 Roger Clemens fastball deep into the right-center field bleachers at The Stadium, and forever endear himself to Red Sox Nation.  Think about it, Sox-Yanks, Pedro-Clemens, in the Bronx and Trot stepped up.  Clutch and never overmatched, it was quintessential Christopher Trotman Nixon.

Godspeed, my man.

Said Bob Ryan the other day during a conference call Theo Epstein was kind enough to schedule with the local media, “On behalf of an eager constituency, let’s hope the rumor is not true. Thank you.”  How courteous, Bob.

We have come to expect hackery from the Dirt Dog, but an anti-Drew petition?  Really?  Already as low as they come, Dirt Dog has yet managed a new one.  Dirt Dog runs a “fansite,” with pictures and big font and little more and so he has to figure out ways to maintain fan interest.  Of course when it comes to the running of his site, he’s morally bankrupt and perpetually unaccountable, so you see what he is up to with Drew.  I mean he kills Manny all the time too.  What does he propose the Sox do?  But it’s always so transparent what’s going on over there.  If the Sox are going good, he’ll see his traffic.  If they’re not, a rabid fanbase will turn to the Dirt Dog to assail those Red Sox not living up to expectations.  Either way, he’s covered. 

Fantastic internet voices like Chad Finn don’t want to see any part of Drew, either.  Says Finn today…

I’m with Ryan. What’s the fascination, Theo? I know the skill-set and the OPS is appealing . . . but damn, it’s time to start giving consideration again to a player’s mental makeup. I’m tired of watching this supposedly progressive front office throw multimillion contracts to well-known Cowardly Lions who will shrivel under the scrutiny.

Of course Chad does not offer up any specific insight into Drew’s character, but has no problem dubbing him a “Cowardly Lion.”  What’s sad is that I am beginning to believe that a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts may be taking hold here.  Drew is human, after all, and if all one is greeted with at the outset of a new employment opportunity is skepticisim and snide commentary about his or her mental state, well, that might adversely affect an individual.

What the Drew discourse needs is an injection of reality, and so let me proceed with a series of facts relating to JD Drew, and further, to Drew as he stacks up to the rumored-to-be-departing Manny Ramirez.

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First, a Drew career recap:

He came up with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1998 at the age of 22 and lit the league on fire for the month of September.  In 1999 and 2000, Drew was pretty good (superb in 2000) but St. Louis Manager Tony LaRussa never entrusted him with a truly full-time job.  That changed in 2001, when Drew put up a superb .323/.414/.623 campaign, albeit in a season cut short by a David Wells fastball that hit him square on the wrist.  Wells, then of the Chicago White Sox, hit Drew on June 17 during an interleague tilt.  Although he finished the season strong thereafter, Drew would not see action again until July 31.

Drew experienced legitimately chronic and frustrating injury troubles in 2002 and 2003.  Recurring patellar tendinitis in his right knee limited Drew to 711 AB’s in the two seasons combined.  Frustrated, the Cards shipped Drew off to Atlanta after the 2003 campaign.

He went crazy in 2004.  Injury free and locked in, Drew put up his best season as a pro, hitting .304/.436/.569 in 645 plate appearences, all the while playing a very good right field.  Drew cashed in on his career season by signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers before the 2005 season.  Once again he put up stellar numbers, this time in spacious Dodger Stadium, hitting .286/.412/.520.  Problem was, just as he had his 2001 breakout season cut short by a David Wells fastball, so too was his 2005 cut short.  Brad Halsey plunked him on the wrist on July 3 and Drew would miss the rest of the season.

This past season, with Grady Little babying him all season long, he logged 146 games played and 594 plate appearences.  He once again played a solid right field, and hit .283/.393/.498 – a tremendous line for a guy playing home games at Dodger Stadium.

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Which brings us to the present.  Drew turned 31 just 11 days ago.  He has been chronic injury free for three full seasons now and really his whole career except for 2002 and 2003.  This is not to say that his hitting style might not lend itself to HBP’s or that his bones may not be more brittle than the next MLB’er (both things may be true).  That said, I am comfortable slotting the HBP’s into the fluke category, which thereby mitigates the perceived injury risk that a Drew signing bears. 

Since 2004, here is how he compares to one Manny Ramirez.  I resort to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP1, a catch-all stat that seeks to incorporate offense and defense and determine how many wins over and above a replacement player a given pitcher or position player contributes.  The figure is admittedly imperfect, but a good proxy nonetheless:

2004 WARP1
Drew: 9.4
Manny: 6.8

2005 WARP1
Drew: 3.9 (although a .321 EQA)
Manny: 6.9 (.317 EQA)

2006 WARP1
Drew: 7.3
Manny: 6.3

Total (2004-2006)
Drew: 20.6
Manny: 20.0

So what we have in Drew is a guy who has been a better player than Ramirez over the last three seasons, is 3.5 years his junior and played more games in 2006. 

And yet, here is the media (and others) eager to sack the man.  Well, be above it, Sox fans.  At least give the guy a chance.

Update: To be clear, the Drew or Manny argument is not necessarily material to the big-picture Red Sox roster optimization discussion.  Drew is not Manny’s replacement.  I included the comparison above simply to point out that Drew stacks up quite favorably to Manny irrespective of who may or may not be replacing whom.