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By Zach, 5/23/2008 8:22 am

Riding a seven game win streak, the red hot Red Sox cruise into Oakland on the wings of dominant starting pitching and efficient offense.  Can the rotation keep it up?  Will the bullpen show up?

Friday 10:05 ET
Wakefield at Harden

Rich Harden is back at it; trying to stay healthy for a full season.  Honestly, this is far earlier than I expected him back and effective.  After struggling in his first start off the DL, he dominated the Braves May 17th, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K.  If he goes down again, the team that signs him might have to hold him out until the last month of 2009/2010 and unleash him during the playoffs.  He could be the ultimate closer.   Its tough to put a value on this kind of player, the one with a risk/reward close to 1.  The A’s hold a $7 million option on 2009, with no buyout.  Billy Beane would probably like to deal him before forced with the option choice, but in order to get a sniff Harden will need to demonstrate a few months of health.

He draws the Sox for the third time in five starts, a point Beane is sure to bring up when hounding the Rockies to give him Ian Stewart in the coming weeks.  In his first two against Boston Harden was hittable and wild but struck out fifteen in eleven innings.  Early season pitch limits forced him out of the game early, but didn’t keep him healthy for much longer.  With a guy like Harden, hand holding and baby steps don’t cover his crystalline fragility.  If Wakefield can meltdown slightly less than he did in Minnesota (2.2 IP, 6 ER) and the Sox can get Harden deep in counts early, this game is winnable.  A bullpen battle is the best case scenario, and a crapshoot.

Saturday 9:05 ET
Beckett at Duchscherer

Doug Mirabelli has been in three trades that worked out well for both sides.  Both times the Sox acquired him, for Duchscherer from the Rangers in 2001, and from San Diego for Cla Meredith and Josh Bard, each team got the best-case result from its efforts.  The third is indirect in that the Sox acquired Loretta for him, and the Pads were able to spin Dougie back in the aforementioned deal.  Essentially, its Loretta for Meredith and Bard, via Doug.  All this is only relevant because at 30, Duchsherer has figured out life a starter after four effective seasons in the Oakland ‘pen.  His 2.67 ERA is a product of his 0.53 HR/9.  Accoring to Fangraphs, players have a hard time getting any lift on his pitches.  A 28.9 LD% combined with a 30.7 FB% will raise some eyebrows.  It reeks of scoring error, but if true, that’s a lot of line drives.  Why haven’t those liners become fly balls?  My guess is they will, and Duchsherer will give up his share of bombs.

Sunday 4:05 ET
Lester at Blanton

This is one to watch.  Not because I expect Jon Lester to come anywhere near the no-hit game of his life, but I fear the 130 pitches will effect him going forward.  I was hoping Theo would figure something else out and give him a few extra days, but roster handcuffs prevent it.  I find it odd though, would Papelbon or Buchholz be put in a compromising position under any circumstance?  Is Lester’s future more expendable?  Maybe.

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By Zach, 5/21/2008 9:28 am

Last night, you were bad.  You didn’t kill us, but only because your homeboy’s the man, the keystone and the fire brigade.  You lasted two-thirds of an inning and gave up a double and two walks.  Luckily, they were in that order.  During a week of highs, I hate to be the log in the Hi-C (patent pending), but I’m officially concerned.

You’re the eighth inning guy, and theres no one waiting in the wings.  Rich Garces is not walking through that door.   The kids are inconsistent, the veterans are ancient, and Justin Masterson is looking more like a starter than some late season bullpen help.  Julio Lugo should have knocked down that ball in the seventh and you would have had a bit more breathing room, but he didn’t.  Your curve was working, but your splitter wasn’t and sometimes you’ve gotta go with your strengths.

We know you’ve had a sore wrist, it happens.  We’ve all had to take a few days from time to time.  If you need a week just tell us, we’ll understand.  Its really important that the old Okajima returns.

Regards,
The Rotation, New England, and the Red Sox Diaspora

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By Zach, 5/14/2008 1:06 pm

Steve Phillips is right, but he has no idea why. If you can stand watching an ESPN broadcast with the sound on, and really, the unintentional comedy of listening to Dan Shulman corral the two knuckleheads locked in that booth with him is reason enough, you’ve heard Phillips’ latest tirade. “Major League Baseball is on pace for one THOUSAND less home runs than in 2006.” Or something vaguely familiar and more convoluted than that.

Amateur economists like to quote a famous economist that once said “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Phillips’ filibuster on home run totals looks like some guy trying to create misleading statistical evidence. Why limit it to home runs? They aren’t the only measure of power and therefore, steroid use. Why use the entire season? Power is usually down in April and May as players adjust and power is sapped by cold weather and dense air. Why use a raw total? Generally there are more off days and rain outs in the cold northeast during April and May. If he was really trying to prove that power has declined he’d compare a rate stat over a similar time period.

As it turns out, he’s covered up the truth. Slugging was down in April, and by a large margin.

MLB SLG, April 2006: .430
MLB SLG, April 2008: .401

Thanks for dumbing it down Steve, maybe soon we’ll reach your level.

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By Zach, 5/13/2008 6:28 am

I don’t care if it’s lava, two wins and ten losses on any surface won’t be defending any titles. Why is this team so inept on the fake stuff? The most obvious answer is infield defense. I don’t think that’s the case here, but there are many reasons: travel schedules, pitching woes, bullpen hiccups and stronger opponents. Unfortunately they caught the Blue Jays playing their best, the Rays looking formidable, and the Twins as hot as they’ll be all season. This will even out, right?

The Rays won their fifth straight to close the gap in the AL East to a mere half game. Matt Garza looked strong, and Andy Pettitte looked old. The Bronx Bums are killing the Red Sox, even in their mediocrity. At what point do we start rooting for the Yankees? Soon.

Hey, road struggles are common among Boston teams in the spring. The Red Sox are still in first, however barely, and the Celtics have home court advantage. This is why all those regular season wins were so important. It was a bad weekend, but things could be much, much worse.

Edit: I called them the “Devil” Rays.  Save your breath, Secular Rays.

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By Zach, 5/9/2008 6:57 am

It was a tale of two Verlanders.  The first inning Justin was hitting the corners with his fastball and cutting up Red Sox hitters.  From the second on, he regained his control for brief instances, otherwise the patient Red Sox stalked the troubled ace and pounced when he was most vulnerable.

With a three run lead and Josh Beckett mowing down hapless Tigers, confidence was running high early.  During a day off for Manny, Kevin Youkilis filled in admirably.  He launched his fourth homer of the series, fifth in five games, to seal the deal.  In the words of the immortal genius, king of kings, Hawk Harrelson: “You can put it in the board! YYYouk!”  A less likely hero, the Captain had a solid night, 1-2 with a pair of RBIs and walks.  That’s all we ask of you, Sir Varitek.  Just don’t be a giant gaping hole where runs go to die.  Deal? Thanks.

The Largest Bullpen in Baseball did a fine job.  Mr. Electric showed his typical nasty slider and poor control.  Fortunately, the Tigers were anxious, going down in order on a dozen pitches.  In a “get your confidence up” appearance, Manny Delcarmen didn’t ruin the hard work of his teammates.  His next appearance should be of similar low leverage, and if he’s successful, its time to work him back into a meaningful role.  His return to form will allow some of the dead weight to be cut.  Always a bullpen psychologist, Francona picked a fine spot to use two kids who need some good innings under their belt.

8PM, Lester at Bonser

The Red Sox look to continue their tear through the Central, next victim: Minnesota.  The first place Twins have been a surprise, but their 17-16 record would only be good for third in any other division.  Its less a case of the Twinkies dominating than their divisional foes wetting the bed.  Pythagorus, via Bill James, says they should be 16-17, and I tend to agree.  Bonser (2-4, 4.29, 1.24) gave up six runs in the first inning of his last start May 4, but gutted out six innings and the Twins came back to take it, 7-6.  He’s shown remarkable control, 9 walks in 42 innings, but struck out only 27.  If he maintains his low ground ball rate, 39%, and doesn’t start striking guys out, the luck will run dry and those fly balls will start finding the seats.

It’s a dreary Friday in New York, I hope your weekend weather is better.  Is spring time, isn’t it?  Scientific community, where’s my weather machine?  You’ve really dropped the ball here.

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By Zach, 5/7/2008 6:15 am

It’s a strange game. April 10th, Wakefield and Robertson locked horns in an eighteen run, four hour marathon. I rushed home at eight o’clock last night only to see half the game gone by and the remainder finished before the second half of the Celtics’ game. Thank you for considering us bandwagon Celtics fans, Red Sox.

When it appeared Timmy wouldn’t come out to finish his gem, I was pissed. Mike Timlin would get a chance to ruin it. Then I said to myself “You know, self, this could be the straw that breaks Mike Timlin’s tenuous hold on a roster spot. If he comes in and allows a run or two, maybe he’ll finally be made Bullpen Coach, Band Leader, or Luggage Porter.” Allowing a leadoff single was a good start, but a double play erased the runner and he grooved a few until Carlos Guillen flied out. He will live to see another lead blown, inherited runner scored, and bambi quiver in terror.

So it turns out David Ortiz is still awesome. Glad that’s decided. Over his last 18 games, his OPS is .942 and he’s driven in 24 runs.

Bullpen Clusterf*ck Resolved?

Denver Post: Rockies (Still) Want Tavarez

Who to target?

With a physique that makes Jeremy Brown look like Charles Atlas, the 5′9″ 225 pound Edwin Bellorin should be available. He’s spending his third year at AAA and has Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta above him on the depth chart. Did I mention he could be mistaken for the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man?

Why would I advocate acquiring such a specimen? After struggling for six years in the Dodgers’ system, he’s been reborn in Colorado Springs. In 221 at bats last year, he put up a .898 OPS, and it has continued into this year: .909, second on the Sky Sox to power prospect Joe Koshansky. He’s 26, so getting a little long in the tooth, but if his defense is acceptable he might be a guy to target.

I don’t subscribe to the “OMG Tek is getting old and looks really bad we need to replace him NOW NOW NOW!” stuff, and the catching depth in all levels of the minor league affiliates is sufficient, but Bellorin could make it better. If anyone knows of a reliable place in the tubes to find defensive analysis of fringe catching prospects, please, let me know. Specifically, can he catch the knuckler?

For a few thoughts on tonight’s matchup, check out: Series Preview. Ignore all that stuff I was wrong about.

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By Zach, 5/5/2008 7:05 am

With April behind us, we’ve got a general idea of the character of this Red Sox team. One thing is certain: It’s gonna be a rollercoaster ride that will weaken the most iron of stomachs. After starting a Far East induced 5-6, the Sox vaulted to the top of the standings with a 10-1 run. From that point, they lost five in a row then won five of six to end up here, at a very respectable 20-13. I’d give a non-vital digit for some god damn consistency.

Detroit welcomes Boston to Comerica Park on Monday, televised on ESPN. It will probably be butchered by Dan Shulman, Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser, but hey, at least they aren’t Miller/Morgan. Detroit’s slow start was well reported, but they haven’t exactly burned the house down since “snapping out of it.” From 0-7 they stand at 14-18, and came to within a game of .500 before being swept over the weekend in Minnesota.

Brandon Moss will be sidelined for a few weeks after having an appendectomy and Mr. Electric, Craig Hansen, is back. I couldn’t be happier to see Hansen back in the pen, but not at the cost of a backup outfielder. With everyone (save Manny) in the outfield hurting, Jonathan Van Every would make a lot more sense. Comerica’s ginormous gaps make corner outfield defense that much more important, so I hope there’s a sky-is-falling plan.

Your four game series preview, in convenient bulleted form, (because I am lazy and running late this morning):

Monday, Matsuzaka vs. Bonderman

• Happy Cinco de Mayo!
• Daisuke’s last start: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 B, 111 pitches
• Sheff 6-10, HR versus Matsuzaka
• Bonderman lots of BB, few Ks, He’s throwing his fastball more and slider less than years past: 66% FB, 27% SL, compared to 58 and 35% last year
• Get to the bullpen and wear out a thin group for the long series

Tuesday, Wakefield vs. Robertson

• Happy Seis de Mayo!
• Magglio 15-35, 5 2B, 2 HR vs Wake
• Robertson: first W of the season last time out vs Yankees, 6.28 ERA needs run support
• 4/10: Same matchup, Sox won 12-6

Wednesday, Buchholz vs. Galarraga

• Galarraga: 1.88 ERA, 0.875 WHIP
• older than Bonderman, his last good pro season in a meaningful sample, 2005 in high A
• tall, lanky righty: 6′4″ 180 lbs.
• No one on the Sox has faced him
• He has been avoiding solid contact and home runs, 0.38 HR/9, .186 BABIP.
• Revert him! To the mean, Alice, to the mean!

Thursday, Beckett vs. Verlander

• Finale and exclamation point
• Verlander: 1.44 WHIP, 6.28 ERA
• Command is killing him, LD% and GB% both better than career averages
• Beckett: 0.96 WHIP! Everything else in line with career averages

In honor of not listening to Joe Morgan, one of my favorite blogs: Fire Joe Morgan.

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By Zach, 4/30/2008 2:43 pm

This is outrageous, absurd, and indefensible.

Basically, if you don’t have box seats at a Dodger game, good luck getting an autograph.  Under the guise of answering complaints regarding “the crowded conditions pregame at [box] seats and on the concourse from fans trying to get close to the players,”  Dodger stadium no longer allows fans who don’t hold those seats  into that area.

What?!  If I have a seat near the dugout and I don’t feel like hounding players for autographs, I’m not at the game yet.  If you are, there are plenty of seats available three hours before game time.  Oh? You don’t want some of the rabble’s discarded hot dog wrapper on the ground in front of you?  Throw it away or don’t bother coming, asshole.

This is just another example of the elitism of baseball.  It’s long been a game for the rich, and that’s becoming more extreme.  As a proper capitalist, I have no problem with higher prices for premium seats, as long as there are some that are reasonably affordable and no fan is treated differently based on “class.”  We’ve all come together to enjoy this game, we’ll go to trendy nightclubs for the velvet rope.  I’ve sat “behind the ropes” in the best seats in Yankee Stadium, and frankly, been embarrassed at the waiter service and Stadium Club bullshit.  Its in baseball’s best interest to keep as many kids as possible as fans, and Frank McCourt, Charles Steinberg and the Dodgers clearly don’t care about poor kids.
I’ll forever celebrate the day John W. Henry bought the Sox, mostly because he wasn’t Frank McCourt.

(After writing this, I’ve realized the article is three weeks old.  Whatever, more people need to know.)

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By Zach,

A young man once walked into a doctor’s office after sprouting up six inches in a summer. “Doc, I’m confused.” He paused. “I’m having these new, strange feelings. Sometimes I can’t control my emotions.”

“Well Jonny, you know at a certain point in a boys life things start to…change.”

“Its not just that stuff, Doc. So much has changed in the last two years, I’m not the same person.”

“Yeah, you’ve had to deal with a lot. You’ve shown tremendous strength. Someday, I might even see you taking over for me, here at the Clinic.”

“Really? Gee, you think so?”

“Well, you’ve got a lot to learn. You’re still making a lot of mistakes, but I think you’ve got the ability. Now its just time you buckle down and show it, consistently.”

“Thanks, Doc. You know how much that means to kids like me. Everyone in this town looks up to you.”

The two strolled into the waiting room, all smiles. The young man’s long strides outpaced the grizzled old doctor and his three day beard. The doctor glanced up at the boy’s mother, an old flame from high school. He winked; she still looked as good as she did thirty years ago.

“Jonny, as far as I’m concerned, you’ve just made a giant step in the right direction.”
_____________

In what was the best game of the young 2008 season, the Red Sox were somehow able to nip Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays behind a stellar performance by Jon Lester. He walked four, but only gave up one hit in his 8 IP, 97 pitch performance.  His fastballs were on the black and he moved from inside to outside corner routinely.  In the face of a dominant Halladay, The kid stepped up in a game that could have easily been 3-0 Blue Jays, good night, thanks for coming, losing streak continues.

From the “anti-gamer” department, J.D. Drew left early with a “tight hamstring.” When my hamstring is tight, I STRETCH IT OUT. Bam, ready to go. I’ve been unbelievably patient with J.D., but to leave a game your team desperately wants to win due to a precautionary hamstring concern demonstrates a critical difference in philosophy. Would Dustin Pedroia have left that game early? Nope, he was in there, flashin’ the leather and swingin’ for the fences like usual. I’ll eat my words if there’s a serious concern, but if he’s back in there tonight I’ll roll my eyes and chalk it up to the perils of signing a player known more for his demeanor than talent.

Tonight, Dustin McGowan faces Daisuke Matsuzaka. Expectations are high for McGowan, and he’s been a disappointment thus far, walking 16 and allowing 32 hits in 28 innings. He’s got the high nineties fastball and more importantly, the best/worst facial hair in the game. Who knew Chester A. Arthur threw gas?

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By Zach, 4/23/2008 6:09 am

Red Sox management continued its obsessive protection of Josh Beckett on Tuesday, scratching him twice with different minor ailments.  First, it looked like he might not go because of the flu.  Ultimately, a stiff neck was to blame.  The paranoia may be unfounded, but it can’t be faulted.  The worst case scenario is a few of Beckett’s innings are replaced by someone less able.  On Tuesday, that was David Pauley.

In the first two frames, Pauley recorded four weak ground outs, a lazy fly to center and a strikeout.  Things went downhill from there.  The bottom of the Angels lineup began its dominance in the third with a string of walks and hits led by Jeff Mathis.  The battle for playing time behind the plate in Anaheim has reached a tipping point.  Mathis continued to strengthen his case to split time with Mike Napoli with his two hit, two run, three RBI night.   Mathis is hitting .379/.387/.759, compared to Napoli’s .227/.292/.523.  Mike Scioscia may often be guilty of over-managing, but his catching platoon appears to be working beautifully.

A pair of homers and a timely drag bunt single from Jacoby Ellbury were the key to the Red Sox victory.  The kid has made his case, he needs to be in the lineup daily.  It was another step in the right direction by Julio Lugo, who is apparently feeling the hot breath of Jed Lowrie on his neck.  He’s up to .324 on the season.  Julian Tavarez’s 1.2 scoreless innings to bridge the gap to Okajima can’t be overstated.  Love him or hate him, Tavarez steps up in unlikely scenarios.

Tonight, Daisuke Matsuzaka faces Jon Garland.  Manny may get to 500 dingers in a hurry, because he’s got three in only twenty-one at-bats versus Garland.  In all, he’s sporting a mere 1.738 OPS against the veteran righty.  Combined with the way Manny is swinging the bat, I hope Garland’s got his neck stretched out.

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By Zach, 4/21/2008 6:16 am

I was unfortunately occupied during the Red Sox marvelous comeback win on Sunday afternoon.  From reading the postgame analysis, it seems Wakefield and Lowrie should share the game ball.  As I say goodbye to one of the personally craziest weeks in recent memory, I’m excited to look ahead.  The Red Sox go for a sweep of the Texas Rangers Monday morning.

Texas at Boston, 11:05 AM ET
Kason Gabbard at Clay Buchholz

The spoils of the Eric Gagne heist are beginning to show fruit.  Not only has David Murphy laced eight doubles and stolen three bases, but lefty Kason Gabbard is sporting a nifty 2.41 ERA.  Drawing conclusions from an 18.2 inning sample is foolhardy, but Gabbard has been an enigma in his three starts.  His groundball rate is in Brandon Webb territory, but he’s only striking out 3.38 per 9.  His BABIP is a hefty .305, but all those hits haven’t translated into runs.  It appears he’s been both lucky and unlucky.  Maybe the Rangers have found something, but if he shuts down the Red Sox tomorrow I won’t be calling for anybody’s head.  We know all to well how this team fares against unfamiliar pitchers, more so lefties.

Milton Bradley (the baseball player) has officially taken over the top spot in my consciousness for that name.  Too bad I’ll no longer associate that collection of syllables with a fun-loving board game pioneer, but one of baseball’s leading misanthropes.  “The Game of Life” had a good run, it’s Bad Milton’s turn now.  He has taken advantage, pairing with Josh Hamilton to lead the Rangers offense.  If Hamilton makes it through the next few years without a relapse into addiction he will be legendary regardless of what happens on the field.  If he hits 30 home runs, the movie rights for his story should launch a bidding war of epic proportions.

After starting the season 3-43, David Ortiz has seven hits in his last twenty-eight at bats.  Not an abrupt about-face, but it’s a small step in the right direction.    Getting him and Clay Buchholz on track is the last step this team needs to take to officially be “running on all cylinders.”  The Red Sox have yet to win a game  Buchholz has started this season, and Patriot’s Day seems like a good day to turn that around.

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By Zach, 4/16/2008 12:19 pm

When my boss approached me a few months ago and said “Zach, you have to go to Cleveland,” I cursed the day I was hatched.  After a pause she followed with “anytime in April,” and there was much rejoicing.  If the Red Sox aren’t in town, Cleveland is right up there with Central Jersey and Wyoming as the least desirable destinations in the lower 48.  When they are, there are few places I’d rather be.

Jacobs Field, I mean, Progressive Field is a good place to watch a baseball game.  It has great proximity to downtown and restaurants, easy in/out, and nice site lines.   My seat in section 117 had a particularly nice view directly down the first base line after the sun went behind the neighboring arena.  Beer and food selection was F- poor, but that might have been due to the “dollar dog” promotion.  No trace of a sandwich or burger was found.  As I munched on six cheap weanies, I kept saying to myself “I’d be pissed if I paid $4.50 for this lame excuse for a pork product.”  But for a dollar, it was delicious.  Finding a beer other than Miller Lite was a challenge, though I had to remind myself of the close proximity to Milwaukee.  I’m all for cheap domestic beers when its 95 and sunny, but I was freezin’ my ass off and a nice thick Guiness would have been a welcome warmer.  How hard is it to include some specialty beer stands every few hundred yards?  It would make a lot of people happy.

The other new stadiums I’ve visited (Camden, Pac Bell, Safeco) are superior in every way, but Progressive is more than adequate.  Cleveland’s relative crappiness is an unintended benefit, because it was a cheap trip from New York with flight and hotel under $500 combined.  Oh, and the Red Sox won.

The big rematch of last Friday’s nailbiter in Fenway is upon us.  Wang-Buchholz, Round 2.  I’ll be at Yankee Stadium with three longtime pals.  I’m a lucky guy.

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By Zach, 4/14/2008 7:26 am

With two of baseball’s best offenses handicapped by injuries and slumping superstars, Phil Hughes and Daisuke Matsuzaka were victimized by patience and high pitch counts. The former didn’t get an out in the third, and the latter struggled mightily through five.  Matsuzaka was handed the big lead but couldn’t keep runners off base in the early innings. His fastball command was typically spotty, the difference Sunday was an inconsistent change-up. In his previous three starts he has relied on the change to lefties; without an out pitch he went to the curve more, with mixed results.

The back of the bullpen was unavailable, leading to tense middle innings and a tightrope act without a net. Mike Timlin didn’t retire a batter but was bailed out by Javy Lopez in the seventh. Lopez and David Aardsma were effective; early results on recent bullpen cuts suggest the right moves were made.

Turning to media watch, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan need to be led to pasture. If your job is announcing baseball games, it’s not acceptable to routinely get players’ names wrong. They’ve never offered thoughtful insight, but Sunday Night Baseball has become a tired repeat of the same stories over and over. Did we need a steroids/curse diatribe again? No, but we got them both.

Monday night, Jon Lester faces off against Jake Westbrook in Cleveland. Will David Ortiz be back in the lineup? Will his “mental health day” get him back on track?

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By Zach, 4/10/2008 6:40 am

Detroit 7
Boston 2

You knew the Tigers wouldn’t lose every game. Wednesday night their offense woke up with a little help from Jon Lester and the Red Sox bullpen. Lester was somewhere between mediocre and awful, with the usual problem: fastball command. None of his 2008 starts have been particularly encouraging, but last night’s 4 BB, 0 K performance was his worst yet. He was lucky in the early innings, the Tigers swung at bad pitches and made bad contact. That could have been a three inning, seven run night pretty easily, then we’d all be poopin’ our pants. To date he’s walked ten in sixteen innings while striking out seven. Color me extremely worried.

Bonderman wasn’t his best, but was unlucky to give up the runs he did in the second. The suddenly error prone Placido Polanco’s botched double play ball should have had him out of the inning before the bases loaded walk to Ellsbury. The four double plays hit into by the Red Sox quickly erased all threats. The maligned Tigers’ pen bested the vaunted Red Sox for the final four innings.

I never thought I’d be so happy to see Mike Timlin return from the disabled list. His extended spring training has allowed the Sox to sort out the mess that is their middle relief, and the answer is: it’s bad. The three candidates to get booted out of town Friday pitched last night in a do-or-die bullpen battle royale, and the loser was Bryan Corey. He gave up two runs on two hits and a walk, and recorded one out. That decision looks pretty cut-and-dry. It sucks that one night should have such a huge impact on his career, but that’s the unfortunate truth. Aardsma will stick. The Bryan Corey Era is over. Hopefully Timlin can rescue a unit that has been utterly craptastic so far.

Game 10 Notes

• There’s one thing I’d like to see from the Red Sox on Thursday, and that’s a 2-4 night from David Ortiz. Even if they lose, getting Ortiz going is vital. If it was anyone else, I’d write it off as a bad stretch, but we haven’t seen a slump like this from Ortiz since August of 2004. He’ll face Nate Robertson, whom he is 3-19 against.
• Coco Crisp will likely get a start, as he’s faced Robertson 38 times with reasonable success (.853 OPS).
• Tim Wakefield will go for the Sox. Watch out for Magglio, who is 15-33 with a 1.288 OPS against the knuckler.
• Mike Lowell is day-to-day, expect to see Casey at first for Thursday and possibly the weekend.

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By Zach, 4/7/2008 7:02 am

Boston 4
Toronto 7

In an afternoon of fireworks and faults Julio Lugo and Manny Delcarmen are the goats, but the real blame should fall on Bud Selig and MLB. On the road since going to Japan, the Red Sox looked physically and mentally tired — and it’s April. Spreading the game internationally is important, but handcuffing a team for two weeks afterwards is not an acceptable side effect.

This is a complicated issue. It’s in everyone’s best interest to increase international revenue streams. Domestic sales are approaching saturation and some growth internationally will allow the boom times of the 1990s to continue. A preseason exhibition series would be ignored and have equally negative effects. If post-season play is moved an ocean away there will be riots in the streets. Adding an exhibition series following the World Series would extend an already stretched schedule and pose injury risks. There’s an intriguing and obvious solution: play an international all-star game. MLB’s best versus Japan’s best for one game in July. Alternate home sites. Add a few days to the ASB then resume business as usual. There could even be a rotating list of opponents.

The World Series home field advantage by virtue of the ASG has benefited the American League for five consecutive seasons, but is far too arbitrary a reason for an important part of the ultimate goal. Home field advantage should go to the team with the better record or the league with a better interleague record. Most importantly, an international all-star game wouldn’t have such a skewed effect on one or two teams. Yes, players would be tired, but at least all teams would have a tired player or two. Teammates will have to pick up the slack for the following few series. One player from each team would be selected and fatigue is distributed equitably.

Players would opt out of coming. Some procedure would have to exist to prevent players from skipping the game. That touches on a larger issue; they should be killing each other to receive this honor, and the attitude of those who consistently excuse themselves is the real problem. A possible solution is to bar the absentees from appearing in the next five regular season games. Truly injured players wouldn’t mind, and healthy players would have to participate. Getting the MLBPA to sign off would require some major concessions on the owners part, but the increased revenue should start with the players. A few million bucks each should smooth this over.

If someone has to go and play an international series, at least split the burden equally.

The Red Sox welcome Kenny Rogers and the struggling Detroit Tigers to Fenway on Tuesday. This series looked a lot more challenging two weeks ago. Manny and Rogers have squared off 58 times, a .900 OPS the result. Lets get off this schnide.

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By Zach, 4/2/2008 6:30 am

Red Sox 2
Oakland 1

As millions cursed the left coast for its stubborn insistence to be “different,” Daisuke Matsuzaka played Dr. Jekyll while Mr. Hyde reared his ugly head for only a few moments. Bad Daisuke popped up at every pitch, threatening to take over and start sailing fastballs to the backstop, but he held his doppleganger in check. After surrendering a home run to Jack Cust he went to a 3-0 count on Emil Brown with fastballs in the dirt, but Brown rolled the 3-1 over to short as a collective sigh of relief washed over the eastern seaboard. The pitch to Cust was a belt high fastball on the outside corner: good hitting by The Legend. The biggest thing to take away from this game is Daisuke’s ability to adapt to his stuff. He had the fastball command, so he went to it often.

There was a major difference in his delivery that merits some continued attention. On fastballs, he followed with his right leg high and his balance shifted to the left. In fact, his balance was inconsistent the entire game. On certain off-speed stuff he was hopping after his leg came through, on others he had his normal finish on the right. Presently this won’t tip his off-speed stuff because it happens after the ball crosses the plate. With repitition, batters may notice a slight change in his balance during the delivery. The first shot below is from a strikeout of Travis Buck in Japan last week, the second last night. Look at the right leg and angle of his torso.

Maybe its nothing, but an adjustment like that after one start is telling. If it’s a conscious change his performance in Japan was worse than we thought, or last night’s not as good. Nine punch-outs and a lead to the bullpen are tough to second guess, but that’s what we do.

All Francona needs to keep this team afloat is 7+ innings from a starter. Last night, he managed to not mess up the pen usage with Okajima and Papelbon for 1+ IP. If Kyle Snyder had been anywhere near that bullpen mound it would have been cause for immediate tar and feathering. A pinch runner for Varitek on second in the top of the ninth would have been ideal, but was ultimately not a factor.

Bullpen thoughts:

• One can’t argue with Papelbon’s performance, but again he left too many fastballs up and in the middle of the plate. The country hardball routine may work against the Athletics, but it won’t fly against the Indians and Yankees.
• If anyone is upset to see Keith Foulke succeeding in another uni, please refer to his fastball, currently is sitting at a robust 82mph. The end is nigh for this charade.
• Timlin is tentatively scheduled to appear in Pawtucket April 7th and 9th, then join the team for the Yankees series beginning the 11th. He is recovering from a laceration on his finger.

Game 4: Wednesday at 3:35pm ET
Jon Lester at Rich Harden

One porcelain princess went down yesterday, can the Red Sox make it two?

Comments (2)

By Zach, 3/25/2008 7:52 am

In his triumphant return to Tokyo Dome, Daisuke Matsuzaka continued where he left the 2007 season. We had great visions of an trend-setting performance, spurred by the emotion of the return. We saw not the dominant, overpowering starter in his former Far East glory, but the same old inconsistency. The Oakland lineup exploited his control issues, but couldn’t land the knockout blow – stranding six in the first three frames. Despite the early difficulties, Matsuzaka threw at least four excellent change ups to Jack Cust and stranded the last seven he faced. It was a start that looks better on paper than it did live: 5 IP, 2 H, 6 K, 2 ER.

Joe Blanton pounded the strike zone until tiring after 90 pitches in the sixth. Ramirez roped a two run double down the left field line and Brandon Moss, filling in for J.D. Drew’s latest excuse, added the go-ahead run. The top of the lineup did its job all morning, and at least in the sixth, the middle obliged.

Taking a one run lead to the bottom of the seventh, Terry Francona lobbed a beach ball to Bob Geren via Kyle Snyder. The obsession with inning slots for relievers is the last hurdle a forward-thinking ballclub faces. We’ve successfully moved away from “small-ball” misconceptions, but relievers are still used prehistorically. Everyone was available, and the fifth option on the depth chart was selected. Genius. The “saving XYZ for tomorrow” argument holds no weight: there may be no need for an elite reliever tomorrow, then there are four meaningless days.  Snyder surrendered two runs in the blink of an eye, and it was bleak until the ninth inning Moss heroics.

Game Two: Lester – Harden

Rich Harden still has a chance to be awesome. He’s 26 and perpetually fragile, but when healthy he’s among the best in baseball. Of course, he has had exactly one healthy season: four years ago.

He insists he’s full strength, but that’s no different than three of the previous four springs. He’s thrown 17 innings this March and given up 9 ER on 20 hits and 7 walks while striking out 13. Those results are poor by any standards. The A’s are hoping he comes out blazing to pump up his trade value. There’s no reason to hold on to him and wait for an injury.

Ostensibly he can be had, but dealing with Billy Beane is dangerous by nature. Add the health risks of Harden and I’d rather dance on needles outside a methadone clinic. Hank, you can have him.

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By Zach, 3/24/2008 7:12 am

Game One, Tuesday, March 25 6:05AM EST, NESN/ESPN2
Daisuke Matsuzaka at Joe Blanton

So, instead of CNBC or Good Morning America, we get to eat our breakfast, run on our treadmills, and shine our shoes to a live regular season baseball game on Tuesday. The morning start time isn’t ideal, but it could be a lot worse — at least the game is during waking hours, however barely. Anything to get me away from Bear Stearns news.

The Athletics are cast as the Washington Generals to our Harlem Globetrotters. Between the whole “world series champion” thing and the Daisuke-Okajima factor, Bob Geren must feel like the ugliest girl at the dance. He’ll throw Joe Blanton to the clutches of reinvigorated J.D. Drew.

Blanton didn’t walk anyone (1.57 BB/9) and didn’t give up many home runs (0.63) in 2007. He also didn’t strike many batters out (5.48 K/9) or get many ground balls (47%). Therefore, his results (106 ERA+) were approximately what we would expect. If anything, I’d project him to improve slightly due to that stellar walk rate.

He busts righties in with his slider for swings and misses, but throws a curve and change nearly as often — around 15% of the time. He’s got four good pitches, none great.

Game Two, Wednesday, March 26 6:05AM EST, NESN/ESPN2
Jon Lester at Rich Harden

Another half-assed analysis coming Tuesday.

Pitch data from Josh Kalk.

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By Zach, 3/19/2008 5:49 am

“Who’s that creepy guy lurking in the corner?”

“Oh, just a friend of mine.”

“Is that…Matt Belisle! OHMIGOD!”

Maybe in Cincinnati. The rest of the country has little reason to pay attention to a twenty-eight-year-old fighting for a spot in the Reds’ rotation. His triple crown numbers were underwhelming: 8-9, 5.32 ERA, 125 Ks, 177 IP. There are sexier candidates named Bailey and Cueto. Hell, nobody in Cincy gets ink unless Dusty is drooling his latest idiotic misconceptions.

Strangely, Belisle has popped up a lot recently. His name has been near the top of random stat sorts that distract me from my actual work. He is the most illustrative part of this article at Baseball Analysts. My dreams are haunted by Marge Schott whispering “Belisle…Belisle” and I wake up in cold sweats. I can’t escape him!

He was almost exactly league average in K% (16.21) and GB% (41.75) and FB% (36.3) in 2007. The one thing he did well was not walking people (2.18 BB/9). Actually, he was really good at not walking people. That rate was 18th in baseball last year, between two guys named Dan Haren and Johan Santana. If he was so average to slightly above, why was his ERA+ only 88?

According to Rich Lederer, he is part of the group of pitchers that “live on the edge with very little margin for error.” I contend that on that edge he was hurt by bad luck more than the rest of that group, which includes guys like Mark Buehrle, Tom Gorzellany and Josh Towers.

Two things broke against him:

• Only Kip Wells had a greater negative difference in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and ERA, indicating he was significantly hurt by poor defense.

• He gave up too many dingers, but Great American Ballpark had something to do with that. In 2007, he allowed 17 at home and 9 on the road in only 7 fewer innings.

GAB has been among the top three in Home Run Park Factor since its opening. That undoubtedly has something to do with the Reds’ crappy staffs, but we’re knee deep in a chicken-and-egg problem now. My guess: it’s not kosher. Reds pitchers were bad, but they were also hurt by the park. According to all his rate stats, Belisle isn’t bad, he’s average, and his tendency to give up bombs at home can be attributed to park effects, at least in part.

I harbor no delusions. Belisle will be never be a top tier pitcher, but he can and will contribute. Don’t forget, to be average you have to beat half the guys out there. Get him out of Cincy or in front of a good defense and he’ll thrive.

I love you: Fangraphs and The Hardball Times

Comments (2)

By Zach, 3/8/2008 2:06 pm

Josh Beckett left his spring training start today before it began, with back spasms.  It doesn’t sound like much, but something to keep an eye on.  There’s no reason to push him and I like his cautious attitude.