Friday 10:05 ET
Wakefield at Harden

Rich Harden is back at it; trying to stay healthy for a full season.  Honestly, this is far earlier than I expected him back and effective.  After struggling in his first start off the DL, he dominated the Braves May 17th, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K.  If he goes down again, the team that signs him might have to hold him out until the last month of 2009/2010 and unleash him during the playoffs.  He could be the ultimate closer.   Its tough to put a value on this kind of player, the one with a risk/reward close to 1.  The A’s hold a $7 million option on 2009, with no buyout.  Billy Beane would probably like to deal him before forced with the option choice, but in order to get a sniff Harden will need to demonstrate a few months of health.

He draws the Sox for the third time in five starts, a point Beane is sure to bring up when hounding the Rockies to give him Ian Stewart in the coming weeks.  In his first two against Boston Harden was hittable and wild but struck out fifteen in eleven innings.  Early season pitch limits forced him out of the game early, but didn’t keep him healthy for much longer.  With a guy like Harden, hand holding and baby steps don’t cover his crystalline fragility.  If Wakefield can meltdown slightly less than he did in Minnesota (2.2 IP, 6 ER) and the Sox can get Harden deep in counts early, this game is winnable.  A bullpen battle is the best case scenario, and a crapshoot.

Saturday 9:05 ET
Beckett at Duchscherer

Doug Mirabelli has been in three trades that worked out well for both sides.  Both times the Sox acquired him, for Duchscherer from the Rangers in 2001, and from San Diego for Cla Meredith and Josh Bard, each team got the best-case result from its efforts.  The third is indirect in that the Sox acquired Loretta for him, and the Pads were able to spin Dougie back in the aforementioned deal.  Essentially, its Loretta for Meredith and Bard, via Doug.  All this is only relevant because at 30, Duchsherer has figured out life a starter after four effective seasons in the Oakland ‘pen.  His 2.67 ERA is a product of his 0.53 HR/9.  Accoring to Fangraphs, players have a hard time getting any lift on his pitches.  A 28.9 LD% combined with a 30.7 FB% will raise some eyebrows.  It reeks of scoring error, but if true, that’s a lot of line drives.  Why haven’t those liners become fly balls?  My guess is they will, and Duchsherer will give up his share of bombs.

Sunday 4:05 ET
Lester at Blanton

This is one to watch.  Not because I expect Jon Lester to come anywhere near the no-hit game of his life, but I fear the 130 pitches will effect him going forward.  I was hoping Theo would figure something else out and give him a few extra days, but roster handcuffs prevent it.  I find it odd though, would Papelbon or Buchholz be put in a compromising position under any circumstance?  Is Lester’s future more expendable?  Maybe.

You’re the eighth inning guy, and theres no one waiting in the wings.  Rich Garces is not walking through that door.   The kids are inconsistent, the veterans are ancient, and Justin Masterson is looking more like a starter than some late season bullpen help.  Julio Lugo should have knocked down that ball in the seventh and you would have had a bit more breathing room, but he didn’t.  Your curve was working, but your splitter wasn’t and sometimes you’ve gotta go with your strengths.

We know you’ve had a sore wrist, it happens.  We’ve all had to take a few days from time to time.  If you need a week just tell us, we’ll understand.  Its really important that the old Okajima returns.

Regards,
The Rotation, New England, and the Red Sox Diaspora

Amateur economists like to quote a famous economist that once said “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Phillips’ filibuster on home run totals looks like some guy trying to create misleading statistical evidence. Why limit it to home runs? They aren’t the only measure of power and therefore, steroid use. Why use the entire season? Power is usually down in April and May as players adjust and power is sapped by cold weather and dense air. Why use a raw total? Generally there are more off days and rain outs in the cold northeast during April and May. If he was really trying to prove that power has declined he’d compare a rate stat over a similar time period.

As it turns out, he’s covered up the truth. Slugging was down in April, and by a large margin.

MLB SLG, April 2006: .430
MLB SLG, April 2008: .401

Thanks for dumbing it down Steve, maybe soon we’ll reach your level.

The Rays won their fifth straight to close the gap in the AL East to a mere half game. Matt Garza looked strong, and Andy Pettitte looked old. The Bronx Bums are killing the Red Sox, even in their mediocrity. At what point do we start rooting for the Yankees? Soon.

Hey, road struggles are common among Boston teams in the spring. The Red Sox are still in first, however barely, and the Celtics have home court advantage. This is why all those regular season wins were so important. It was a bad weekend, but things could be much, much worse.

Edit: I called them the “Devil” Rays.  Save your breath, Secular Rays.

With a three run lead and Josh Beckett mowing down hapless Tigers, confidence was running high early.  During a day off for Manny, Kevin Youkilis filled in admirably.  He launched his fourth homer of the series, fifth in five games, to seal the deal.  In the words of the immortal genius, king of kings, Hawk Harrelson: “You can put it in the board! YYYouk!”  A less likely hero, the Captain had a solid night, 1-2 with a pair of RBIs and walks.  That’s all we ask of you, Sir Varitek.  Just don’t be a giant gaping hole where runs go to die.  Deal? Thanks.

The Largest Bullpen in Baseball did a fine job.  Mr. Electric showed his typical nasty slider and poor control.  Fortunately, the Tigers were anxious, going down in order on a dozen pitches.  In a “get your confidence up” appearance, Manny Delcarmen didn’t ruin the hard work of his teammates.  His next appearance should be of similar low leverage, and if he’s successful, its time to work him back into a meaningful role.  His return to form will allow some of the dead weight to be cut.  Always a bullpen psychologist, Francona picked a fine spot to use two kids who need some good innings under their belt.

8PM, Lester at Bonser

The Red Sox look to continue their tear through the Central, next victim: Minnesota.  The first place Twins have been a surprise, but their 17-16 record would only be good for third in any other division.  Its less a case of the Twinkies dominating than their divisional foes wetting the bed.  Pythagorus, via Bill James, says they should be 16-17, and I tend to agree.  Bonser (2-4, 4.29, 1.24) gave up six runs in the first inning of his last start May 4, but gutted out six innings and the Twins came back to take it, 7-6.  He’s shown remarkable control, 9 walks in 42 innings, but struck out only 27.  If he maintains his low ground ball rate, 39%, and doesn’t start striking guys out, the luck will run dry and those fly balls will start finding the seats.

It’s a dreary Friday in New York, I hope your weekend weather is better.  Is spring time, isn’t it?  Scientific community, where’s my weather machine?  You’ve really dropped the ball here.

When it appeared Timmy wouldn’t come out to finish his gem, I was pissed. Mike Timlin would get a chance to ruin it. Then I said to myself “You know, self, this could be the straw that breaks Mike Timlin’s tenuous hold on a roster spot. If he comes in and allows a run or two, maybe he’ll finally be made Bullpen Coach, Band Leader, or Luggage Porter.” Allowing a leadoff single was a good start, but a double play erased the runner and he grooved a few until Carlos Guillen flied out. He will live to see another lead blown, inherited runner scored, and bambi quiver in terror.

So it turns out David Ortiz is still awesome. Glad that’s decided. Over his last 18 games, his OPS is .942 and he’s driven in 24 runs.

Bullpen Clusterf*ck Resolved?

Denver Post: Rockies (Still) Want Tavarez

Who to target?

With a physique that makes Jeremy Brown look like Charles Atlas, the 5’9″ 225 pound Edwin Bellorin should be available. He’s spending his third year at AAA and has Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta above him on the depth chart. Did I mention he could be mistaken for the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man?

Why would I advocate acquiring such a specimen? After struggling for six years in the Dodgers’ system, he’s been reborn in Colorado Springs. In 221 at bats last year, he put up a .898 OPS, and it has continued into this year: .909, second on the Sky Sox to power prospect Joe Koshansky. He’s 26, so getting a little long in the tooth, but if his defense is acceptable he might be a guy to target.

I don’t subscribe to the “OMG Tek is getting old and looks really bad we need to replace him NOW NOW NOW!” stuff, and the catching depth in all levels of the minor league affiliates is sufficient, but Bellorin could make it better. If anyone knows of a reliable place in the tubes to find defensive analysis of fringe catching prospects, please, let me know. Specifically, can he catch the knuckler?

For a few thoughts on tonight’s matchup, check out: Series Preview. Ignore all that stuff I was wrong about.

Detroit welcomes Boston to Comerica Park on Monday, televised on ESPN. It will probably be butchered by Dan Shulman, Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser, but hey, at least they aren’t Miller/Morgan. Detroit’s slow start was well reported, but they haven’t exactly burned the house down since “snapping out of it.” From 0-7 they stand at 14-18, and came to within a game of .500 before being swept over the weekend in Minnesota.

Brandon Moss will be sidelined for a few weeks after having an appendectomy and Mr. Electric, Craig Hansen, is back. I couldn’t be happier to see Hansen back in the pen, but not at the cost of a backup outfielder. With everyone (save Manny) in the outfield hurting, Jonathan Van Every would make a lot more sense. Comerica’s ginormous gaps make corner outfield defense that much more important, so I hope there’s a sky-is-falling plan.

Your four game series preview, in convenient bulleted form, (because I am lazy and running late this morning):

Monday, Matsuzaka vs. Bonderman

• Happy Cinco de Mayo!
• Daisuke’s last start: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 B, 111 pitches
• Sheff 6-10, HR versus Matsuzaka
• Bonderman lots of BB, few Ks, He’s throwing his fastball more and slider less than years past: 66% FB, 27% SL, compared to 58 and 35% last year
• Get to the bullpen and wear out a thin group for the long series

Tuesday, Wakefield vs. Robertson

• Happy Seis de Mayo!
• Magglio 15-35, 5 2B, 2 HR vs Wake
• Robertson: first W of the season last time out vs Yankees, 6.28 ERA needs run support
• 4/10: Same matchup, Sox won 12-6

Wednesday, Buchholz vs. Galarraga

• Galarraga: 1.88 ERA, 0.875 WHIP
• older than Bonderman, his last good pro season in a meaningful sample, 2005 in high A
• tall, lanky righty: 6’4″ 180 lbs.
• No one on the Sox has faced him
• He has been avoiding solid contact and home runs, 0.38 HR/9, .186 BABIP.
• Revert him! To the mean, Alice, to the mean!

Thursday, Beckett vs. Verlander

• Finale and exclamation point
• Verlander: 1.44 WHIP, 6.28 ERA
• Command is killing him, LD% and GB% both better than career averages
• Beckett: 0.96 WHIP! Everything else in line with career averages

In honor of not listening to Joe Morgan, one of my favorite blogs: Fire Joe Morgan.

Basically, if you don’t have box seats at a Dodger game, good luck getting an autograph.  Under the guise of answering complaints regarding “the crowded conditions pregame at [box] seats and on the concourse from fans trying to get close to the players,”  Dodger stadium no longer allows fans who don’t hold those seats  into that area.

What?!  If I have a seat near the dugout and I don’t feel like hounding players for autographs, I’m not at the game yet.  If you are, there are plenty of seats available three hours before game time.  Oh? You don’t want some of the rabble’s discarded hot dog wrapper on the ground in front of you?  Throw it away or don’t bother coming, asshole.

This is just another example of the elitism of baseball.  It’s long been a game for the rich, and that’s becoming more extreme.  As a proper capitalist, I have no problem with higher prices for premium seats, as long as there are some that are reasonably affordable and no fan is treated differently based on “class.”  We’ve all come together to enjoy this game, we’ll go to trendy nightclubs for the velvet rope.  I’ve sat “behind the ropes” in the best seats in Yankee Stadium, and frankly, been embarrassed at the waiter service and Stadium Club bullshit.  Its in baseball’s best interest to keep as many kids as possible as fans, and Frank McCourt, Charles Steinberg and the Dodgers clearly don’t care about poor kids.
I’ll forever celebrate the day John W. Henry bought the Sox, mostly because he wasn’t Frank McCourt.

(After writing this, I’ve realized the article is three weeks old.  Whatever, more people need to know.)

“Well Jonny, you know at a certain point in a boys life things start to…change.”

“Its not just that stuff, Doc. So much has changed in the last two years, I’m not the same person.”

“Yeah, you’ve had to deal with a lot. You’ve shown tremendous strength. Someday, I might even see you taking over for me, here at the Clinic.”

“Really? Gee, you think so?”

“Well, you’ve got a lot to learn. You’re still making a lot of mistakes, but I think you’ve got the ability. Now its just time you buckle down and show it, consistently.”

“Thanks, Doc. You know how much that means to kids like me. Everyone in this town looks up to you.”

The two strolled into the waiting room, all smiles. The young man’s long strides outpaced the grizzled old doctor and his three day beard. The doctor glanced up at the boy’s mother, an old flame from high school. He winked; she still looked as good as she did thirty years ago.

“Jonny, as far as I’m concerned, you’ve just made a giant step in the right direction.”
_____________

In what was the best game of the young 2008 season, the Red Sox were somehow able to nip Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays behind a stellar performance by Jon Lester. He walked four, but only gave up one hit in his 8 IP, 97 pitch performance.  His fastballs were on the black and he moved from inside to outside corner routinely.  In the face of a dominant Halladay, The kid stepped up in a game that could have easily been 3-0 Blue Jays, good night, thanks for coming, losing streak continues.

From the “anti-gamer” department, J.D. Drew left early with a “tight hamstring.” When my hamstring is tight, I STRETCH IT OUT. Bam, ready to go. I’ve been unbelievably patient with J.D., but to leave a game your team desperately wants to win due to a precautionary hamstring concern demonstrates a critical difference in philosophy. Would Dustin Pedroia have left that game early? Nope, he was in there, flashin’ the leather and swingin’ for the fences like usual. I’ll eat my words if there’s a serious concern, but if he’s back in there tonight I’ll roll my eyes and chalk it up to the perils of signing a player known more for his demeanor than talent.

Tonight, Dustin McGowan faces Daisuke Matsuzaka. Expectations are high for McGowan, and he’s been a disappointment thus far, walking 16 and allowing 32 hits in 28 innings. He’s got the high nineties fastball and more importantly, the best/worst facial hair in the game. Who knew Chester A. Arthur threw gas?

In the first two frames, Pauley recorded four weak ground outs, a lazy fly to center and a strikeout.  Things went downhill from there.  The bottom of the Angels lineup began its dominance in the third with a string of walks and hits led by Jeff Mathis.  The battle for playing time behind the plate in Anaheim has reached a tipping point.  Mathis continued to strengthen his case to split time with Mike Napoli with his two hit, two run, three RBI night.   Mathis is hitting .379/.387/.759, compared to Napoli’s .227/.292/.523.  Mike Scioscia may often be guilty of over-managing, but his catching platoon appears to be working beautifully.

A pair of homers and a timely drag bunt single from Jacoby Ellbury were the key to the Red Sox victory.  The kid has made his case, he needs to be in the lineup daily.  It was another step in the right direction by Julio Lugo, who is apparently feeling the hot breath of Jed Lowrie on his neck.  He’s up to .324 on the season.  Julian Tavarez’s 1.2 scoreless innings to bridge the gap to Okajima can’t be overstated.  Love him or hate him, Tavarez steps up in unlikely scenarios.

Tonight, Daisuke Matsuzaka faces Jon Garland.  Manny may get to 500 dingers in a hurry, because he’s got three in only twenty-one at-bats versus Garland.  In all, he’s sporting a mere 1.738 OPS against the veteran righty.  Combined with the way Manny is swinging the bat, I hope Garland’s got his neck stretched out.