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By Zach, 3/7/2008 11:38 am

Dusty Baker ran his mouth dis mornin’ on a buncha stuff: swingin’, aggressivocity and cows were speaked on.

Some hi-lites:

“Most of the time you’ve got to put handcuffs on a young guy to keep him from swinging. (The young players are) playing good, real good. I’d like to see them more aggressive.

“I really, really hate the called third strike. I hate that. You’re guessing and you ain’t ready to hit.”

“Dunn’s not a kid. He’s not old, but he ain’t a kid,” Baker said. “I bet you he gets better. He’s from Texas, right? There’s not a cow in Texas if he don’t get better.”

On Joey Votto, whose primary skill according to Keith Law is his plate discipline:

“He needs to swing some more. I talked to him about that. … I’d like to see him more aggressive.”

He added:

B-e a-g-g-r-e-s-s-i-v-e!

(I wish.)

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By Zach, 3/4/2008 10:28 pm

From Boston.com

“It’s a tough situation for me right now,” Papelbon said. “I feel like with me being at the top of my position, I feel like that (salary) standard needs to be set and I’m the one to set that standard and I don’t think that the Red Sox are really necessarily seeing eye to eye with me on that subject right now.” (emphasis added)

That sounds a lot like an MLBPA memo.  Let him go to arbitration, then pay him.

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By Zach,

You signed up for this gig, man.

What was the alternative for MacPhail? Cave to Markakis’ demands? That’s not a good precedent to set. Players enter the system knowing they may be underpaid until arbitration. Maybe next time he’ll improve slower.

MacPhail termed the contract situation with Markakis “regrettable, but not uncommon.”

Markakis, however, was miffed. He left the team training complex long before the 5 p.m. deadline, but earlier in the day he told The Baltimore Sun, “That’s just how the Orioles feel. I don’t have much of a choice. I’m just going to have to deal with it.”

Right, so stop whining about it and get back to playing pepper or shagging flies.

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By Zach, 3/3/2008 7:57 am

The American League Central has a bit of everything: home-grown favorites, flashy acquisitions, wannabe pretenders, rebuilding cowards and perennial doormats. Can the status quo Indians hold off the influx of Tiger talent? Has Bill Smith already lost his job? Can Trey Hillman lead the young Royals to the brink of .500? Who’s crazier: Ozzie Guillen or Kenny Williams? These are the questions that surround the Central.

Cleveland Indians – 2007 Actual 96-66, Pythag 92-70

Eighty billion. According to my estimates, that’s how many times someone said “if it ain’t broke…” in Indians front office meetings over the last year. There’s truth in cliches; ninety-six wins and a 48-24 record in the division are no fluke. The Tribe missed the World Series by a game and return the same team, plus a few pieces, in 2008. Be afraid.

Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
DH Travis Hafner
C Victor Martinez
1B Ryan Garko
LF Dave Delucci (L) / Jason Michaels (R)
SS Jhonny Peralta
RF Franklin Gutierrez
3B Casey Blake

The lineup is not without questions. Pronk had a down season, and they need him to rebound. A boost from old acquaintance Andy Marte – out of options and without a starting job – will take some of the pressure off. He’ll get an opportunity to win the gig from Casey Blake, who can also play first and a bit of outfield. Infielder Jamey Carroll and Kelly Shoppach round out a talented bench.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Borowski (Closer)
RHP Rafael Betancourt
RHP Masahide Kobayashi
RHP Jensen Lewis
LHP Rafael Perez
LHP Aaron Fultz
RHP Tom Mastny

Borowski will toe the line, but his safety net is 225 pound test. In 2007, Fat Joe got the sexy save numbers, but the Rafael “The Red Turtle” Betancourt contributed far more (5.38 vs. 1.36 WPA) in actual win probability. Kobayashi is here to slide into the setup role when Borowski flames out, between laying waste to local hot dog carts. Lewis (29.3 IP, 7 ER, 34 SO, 10 BB) and Perez (60 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 62 SO, 15 BB) round out the second best ‘pen (Angels) in the AL.

Rotation
LHP C.C. Sabathia
RHP Fausto Carmona
RHP Jake Westbrook
RHP Paul Byrd
LHP Cliff Lee
LHP Jeremy Sowers
LHP Adam Laffey

The attention is squarely on Sabathia’s broad shoulders after he wiped his ass with the Indians’ latest attempt at a contract extension. Just days after Johan swam laps in a mountain of Wilpon cash, Mark Shapiro scrooged C.C. with a 4 year, $68 million deal. This, for a pitcher coming off a Cy Young season at 26 with the free agency holy land a season away. More than low-balling, that offer might be pathetic enough for Carsten Charles to cut Marky Mark out of the bidding entirely. The timing is most egregious. Santana signed on Feb 2 and by the 4th Sabathia had the Tribe’s “offer.” Shapiro isn’t stupid, so he must not be willing to make a commitment in the $120 million range. If Sabathia stays healthy, he’ll be due at least Santana money in 2009. He’s said he won’t negotiate during the season. Let the speculation begin!

As good as the ace was in 2007, Fausto Carmona nearly matched him. Skinny on the strikeouts, he gets by with his power sinker and 64.3 GB%, leading the American League. Don’t get too excited, his IP jumped from 74 to 214, so consider him a major injury risk. If he manages to stay healthy and cut down on some of the walks he’ll make the Indians top two the best in the league, en route to the ALCS and a World Series appearance. I hate to say it, but the Indians are preseason favorites. If Fausto repeats and one of the Lee/Sowers/Laffey group proves competent, the Indians will be the best team in baseball.

Detroit Tigers – 2007 Actual 88-74, Pythag 90-72

Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
3B Miguel Cabrera
DH Gary Sheffield
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Carlos Guillen
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Jacque Jones
C Ivan Rodriguez

Edit: I can’t believe I forgot Cabrera above.

Experts tout the Tigers lineup like it will cure all that ails their pitching staff. That will not be the case. Five years ago they may have scored 1000 runs; now, all but Granderson and Cabrera are on the wrong side of 32. Gary Sheffield’s OPS+ trend is going in the wrong direction (162, 141, 137, 107, 120) and he’s 39. Magglio Ordonez had a career year, but it looks like an outlier. Players don’t usually sustain career highs in their 30s.

The Tigers will field a group of professional hitters, but there will be natural decline.

Bullpen
RHP Todd Jones (Closer)
RHP Fernando Rodney
LHP Bobby Seay
RHP Jason Grilli
RHP Zach Miner
LHP Tim Byrdak
RHP Yorman Bazardo

Somebody hire Joel Zumaya a moving crew. A sixty pound box fell on his right shoulder while escaping California wildfires last fall, landing the Tigers bullpen in doubt. He hasn’t begun throwing, so a midseason return is optimistic. In a move reminiscent of a Theo Epstein “buckshot at the bullpen monster,” Matt Mantei was brought in on a minor league deal. Unfortunately, this one is about five seasons too late. Lefty Bobby Seay broke out last year, but is relatively ineffective against righthanded batters (.707/.545 OPS vs. RHB/LHB). Someone needs to take some of the pressure off of Rodney until Zumaya returns.

Rotation
RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Dontrelle Willis
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Nate Robertson
LHP Kenny Rogers

The biggest question is Willis’ transition to the American League. Did Vegas (wins over/under 93.5) notice that he was awful last year? Any decline from his 83 ERA+ and 1.58 WHIP will be cause for a demotion to rookie ball. Bonderman should be healthy, but Robertson has had exactly one above average season and Rogers is 44! This team just isn’t. that. good.

Chicago White Sox – 2007 Actual 72-90, Pythag 67-95

As bad as the White Sox were in 2007, Bill James and Pythagoras say they overachieved.

Lineup
CF Jerry Owens
SS Orlando Cabrera
DH Jim Thome
1B Paul Konerko
RF Jermain Dye
LF Nick Swisher
C A.J. Pierzynski
3B Josh Fields
2B Danny Richar

Settle down, Kenny. You’ve made too many acquisitions in the wrong places, and now you’ve got a mess on your hands. Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez didn’t leave his family behind to ride the pine, but he’s third on the depth chart at second base. Veteran and Guillen favorite Juan Uribe will battle with Richar. Example number 2,431 that Ozzie is an idiot: Juan Uribe stole one base last year, and was caught nine times.

“Nine times.”

The outfield is more crowded than Starbucks on free “full body” latte day. New acquisition Carlos Quentin is the fourth outfielder unless Owens bombs, forcing Swisher to center. Oh, and Joe Crede doesn’t have a spot or any trade value. Beautifully executed, Professor Williams.

Bullpen
RHP Bobby Jenks (Closer)
RHP Scott Linebrink
RHP Octavio Dotel
LHP Matt Thornton
RHP Mike MacDougal
LHP Boone Logan
RHP Nick Masset

You should recognize some of these names. Additions Linebrink and Dotel were had for a mere $30 million. A bit high, but maybe worth the premium if its going to put you over the top. Wait, does this put the White Sox over the top? Absolutely not. Terrible, terrible moves. Linebrink is on a four year deal, and is no longer the lights-out reliever he was in 2005 (210 ERA+). His strikeouts and his home runs allowed went in the wrong directions last year. At the end of that deal he’ll be dead weight.

Rotation
LHP Mark Buehrle
RHP Javier Vasquez
LHP John Danks
RHP Jose Contreras
RHP Gavin Floyd
RHP Lance Broadway

They subtracted the overrated but serviceable Jon Garland and added Gavin Floyd. Will the Danks/Contreras/Floyd/Broadway group contribute 90 quality starts? That would be 540 IP, or 135 each. Not a chance. Danks and Contreras will struggle to be average, and Broadway was figured out by minor leaguers in 2007. Buehrle and Vasquez come with their own issues, but the end of the rotation will doom the Pale Hose.

Kansas City Royals – 2007 Actual 69-93, Pythag 75-87

The Royals are going to surprise. Maybe not .500, but they’ll get to 75 wins, a six game improvement from 2007.

Rotation
RHP Gil Meche
RHP Brian Bannister
RHP Zack Greinke
RHP Brett Tomko
LHP Mike Maroth
LHP Jorge De La Rosa

The wild card is Greinke. Troubled colleagues Rick Ankiel and Oliver Perez have treated their complexes, and if the end of 2007 (7 GS, 34 IP, 31 SO, 1.85 ERA) is any indication, my namesake will continue the trend. While Meche turned Dayton Moore from goat to genius, Bannister is unlikely to repeat. His 4.20 K/9 will only fly with a ground ball rate better than his 42% in 2007. Luke Hochevar, the kid that was drafted three times and only settled for first overall, should be a factor by year end. This won’t be a tough rotation to break into.

Bullpen
RHP Joakim Soria (Closer)
RHP Yasuhiko Yabuta
LHP Ron Mahay
LHP Jimmy Gobble
LHP John Bale
RHP Joel Peralta
RHP Ryan Braun

This is Ryan Z. Braun. Ryan J. Braun plays for the Brewers. I never thought I’d have to deal with another Bobby Jones situation, especially with a less generic name. Unfortunately, the Royals don’t play the Brewers in the regular season, but you can check out the March 8th tuneup for some hot Braun-on-Braun action.

Soria had a nice rookie campaign (9.78 K/9, 0.942 WHIP, 17 S). He mixes in a slow curve (average speed 73 mph) and rare change (83mph) off his average fastball (92 mph). With three solid pitches I wonder why he has never been given an opportunity as a starter. He threw a perfect game in the Mexican Winter League just days after being taken in the Rule 5 draft. Another Santana-type Rule 5 triumph? Probably not, but another example of the importance of that draft.

35 year-old Yabuta will try to replace David Riske, who, in 2007, gave up too many hits and walks (1.26 WHIP) to maintain a 2.45 ERA. Yabuta has been consistently good the last four years in Japan, but projecting him is voodoo soothsaying at best.

Lineup
CF David DeJesus
LF Mark Teahen
1B Billy Butler
RF Jose Guillen
3B Alex Gordon
DH Ross Gload
C John Buck
2B Mark Grudzielanek
SS Tony Pena, Jr.

If the kids make some strides, this will be a decent run scoring team. I think they’ll crush David Pinto’s 4.82 estimate. John Buck, despite decent power (.429 SLG), has never shown patience (.308 OBP) or an ability to make contact (.222 BA). He’s not a starter in big-market baseball. 2008 will be the first step toward .500 in KC.

Minnesota Twins – 2007 Actual 79-83, Pythag 79-83

The Mississippi will flow with tears. Torii Hunter has signed with LAnaheim. Johan Santana has made his journey into the sunset, fetching a group of solid, not spectacular, prospects. Many have insisted this wasn’t enough, Smith should have held his cards or folded early. In reality, he had no choice. The player held too much power with his no-trade clause and ability to block an in-season deal. The real blame should fall on Terry Ryan, who sacrificed future flexibility to sign Johan to a 4/40M deal before 2005. Considering all factors, Smith did pretty well. He held out as long as he could, but recognized the price was falling and pulled the trigger. The alternative, Johan heading into the season as a Twin, would be an enormous failure.

Rotation
LHP Francisco Liriano
RHP Scott Baker
RHP Boof Bonser
RHP Livan Hernandez
RHP Kevin Slowey

The dramatic improvement in ligament-replacement surgery has changed the game since Dr. Frank Jobe pioneered the procedure in 1974. Now, pitchers with elbow injuries make full recoveries 93% of the time. The Twins insist Liriano is fully recovered, but I’ll file that under “I’ll believe it when I see it.” Even with The Prodigy at full strength, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey will be responsible for three-fifths of the starts. They weren’t good last year and the status quo won’t cut it. An improvement may come from Bonser, who has good stuff and is reportedly in the best shape of his career. The jury is out on how a bit of extra heft effects pitchers. Certainly good conditioning is positive, but durability may be sacrificed. He will be a good case study.

Bullpen
RHP Joe Nathan (closer)
RHP Pat Neshek
RHP Matt Guerrier
RHP Jesse Crain
LHP Dennys Reyes
RHP Juan Rincon

The bidding on Nathan will begin in 5…4…3…. He’s a premier closer and a number of teams with playoff hopes are shaky at the end of the pen. I can see Arizona, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and the Mets involved. After a dominant first half, Neshek struggled beyond July 24th. In 21 IP, he gave up 22 hits and walked 11 for a 6.23 ERA. Caveat emptor. Jessie Crain is recovering from a torn labrum and is 80% as of Feb 21, according to Rotoworld. Guerrier may be closing by June.

Lineup
CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

The revamped Twins lineup welcomes Gomez, Young, Harris, Lamb and Everett. 55% turnover will make waves in what has been one of the most consistent rosters in baseball over the last decade. It will take me two weeks to get used to Torii in an Angels uni. Young is poised to breakout; I’m taking the over on all his projections. ZiPS has him at 4.9 RC/27. Gomez is overrated, his speed will be valuable, but he hasn’t shown the patience to lead off. I take him in the AL Central ROY below for lack of a better choice.

The fallout from Johan will hurt for years. The bottom line is, an agent wielding a no-trade clause is a death sentence for a front office. Even moreso when based on postseason voting, where a team is forced to either root against its own player or swallow the bitter pill of an NTC. In this case, the Twins could have sent Johan to Seattle for Adam Jones, but he would have blocked the deal faster than Dusty Baker ruins pitchers. It would be interesting to analyze the cost in dollars to the Twins of Johan’s NTC, but that’s a task for another day.

______________________________

Predictions:
Indians 100-62
Tigers 85-77
Royals 75-87
White Sox 74-88
Twins 68-94

That’s right, the Royals will finish ahead of the White Sox. You read it here. Their young lineup will catalyze around Alex Gordon, while Ozzie Guillen will continue to raise the bar for crazy. The Indians will be nothing short of awesome, and the Tigers will disappoint.

AL Central Top Hitter: Travis Hafner
AL Central Top Pitcher: Carsten Charles Sabathia
AL Central Rookie of the Year: Carlos Gomez
Angel Berroa Award: John Buck

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By Zach, 2/29/2008 5:38 pm

Oh, no he didn’t…

First, it was the A-Rod/Boras fiasco.  Then, the Girardi signing.  The public Johan negotiations made it easier for the rest of us, but this is the icing on the cake.

I’m more excited for the Hank Steinbrenner era than the Red Sox Dynasty that will surely ensue.  Buckle up, kids, its gonna be a helluva season.

Comments (7)

By Zach, 2/11/2008 11:39 am

Cancel the season. The Mets have added the best pitcher in baseball. They’ve transformed their 2007 contenders to Vegas favorites. The rest of the division has faded away or moved laterally. But, wait! Not so fast, obnoxious-NYC-daily-rag-columnist! This race is not over.

Every team would love to add Johan Santana. Will it be enough to put the aging Mets over the top? With another season on the odometer of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and Pedro Martinez, their backups: Jeff Conine, Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa; will play a large role. A single injury to one of their ancient porcelin princesses will crack the shaky ice on which Omar Minaya has thrown his chips. Pretty much any doomsday-cliche works here, I guess it’s just salt in the wound at this point. Where the Phillies and Braves are lacking in top flight rotation talent, they make up for in balance and depth. Oh, and the Nationals and Marlins play the punching bags.

New York Mets

2007: Actual 88-74, Pythag 87-75
2008 Projected: 94-68

I really, really wanted to pick someone else to win the East. I wrote several versions of this column, one with a very weak case for the Phillies offense carrying them and another with the Braves possessing just enough depth to win. I think it will be heartbreak-close, but the Mets will pull it out. That is, if they don’t lose 11 of their last 16 and fold like a scared puppy that just peed on the rug, again.

Lineup:
SS Jose Reyes (S)
2B Luis Castillo (S)
3B David Wright (R)
CF Carlos Beltran (S)
1B Carlos Delgado (L)
LF Moises Alou (R)
RF Ryan Church (L)
C Brian Schneider (L)

I guess a 150 OPS+ and 34/5 SB/CS are only good enough for fourth in the MVP voting. Amazingly, David Wright‘s 2007 season was accepted with quiet aplomb. The New York media effect couldn’t put him over the top, even though he had sexier numbers than Jimmy Rollins at an important defensive position. He can’t be blamed for “the meltdown;” his best two months were August and September.

Perception of the other member of the Mets’ left side is skewed in the opposite direction. Jose Reyes collects accolades for his disruption on the basepaths, but his middling OBP and lack of power prevent his ascension into legitimate All-Stardom. Yes, he’s made two mid-summer classics, but it’s absurd that he stole some MVP votes from Wright in 2007. 78 is a lot of stolen bases, but Wright’s success rate was far better. I’d apologize for this “David Wright got robbed” tirade if it wasn’t true. Sorry, Mets fans, but you’ve got the third best shortstop in this division and Yunel Escobar has a fighting chance to move you down another notch. In fact, Escobar (.451) outslugged Reyes (.421) in 2007. Congrats, Jose, Cristian Guzman will never touch you.

Don’t expect as much from the rest of the infield. Luis Castillo and Carlos Delgado have seen better days. Brian Schneider and Church came at the cost of Lastings Milledge, but expectations are for Schneider to work on receiving. Alou should be league average in left and Beltran will earn every bit of his $13.5m.

CL Billy Wagner
RHRP Aaron Heilman
LHRP Pedro Feliciano
RHRP Matt Wise
LHRP Scott Schoenweis
RHRP Duaner Sanchez

When the inevitable catastrophic elbow explosion happens to Billy Wagner, the pen should be able to weather the storm. Heilman would slide into the closer’s role, which he and his 1.07 WHIP are qualified for, and solid lefty Pedro Feliciano would set-up. After that it’s righty Matt Wise (1.45 WHIP) and nearly cooked Scott Schoenweis. The long-anticipated return of Duaner Sanchez from a freak shoulder injury would do wonders to a thin but talented pen.

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Pedro Martinez
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Orlando Hernandez
RHP Jorge Sosa

Pedro and El Duque should be treated as one starter, because they’re all but guaranteed to miss significant time. That means pressure on Maine and Perez to repeat their success in 2007. Jorge Sosa had one magical season in Atlanta, but other than that he has never had a league average ERA. Minaya has been rumored to be after Kyle Lohse. He’s no stud, but another option if Sosa struggles in place of Pedro or the Duke. After an amazing first half, John Maine’s August (6.32 ERA) and September (5.93) are worrisome.

This could be a great rotation, but the question marks are larger than Atlanta’s, Plan B is shaky, and there is no Plan C: Pelfrey isn’t ready (1.70 WHIP, 1.15 K/BB). There are two reasons the Mets will win this divison:

1. Santana will tear through the NL like a Curt Schilling at an Old Country Buffet
2. 2007 Oliver Perez (120 ERA+, 8.85 K/9) started the journey back to the unhittable 2004 version (145 ERA+, 10.97 K/9), if he splits the difference, watch out for the Mets.

Atlanta Braves

(2007: Actual 84-78, Pythag 89-73)
2008 Projected: 93-69, 1 GB

Some argue that juggernaut offenses are the key to regular season success. I say starting rotation depth cures the 162 game grind. Injuries, especially among pitchers, happen. Every time an ancient journeyman starter takes the hill because there’s noone else to go that day, I cringe and immediately blame the general manager for a failure to anticipate the unexpected. Uh, yeah, I guess that makes sense. The 2008 Braves will not have a high scoring offense, but they will hit and they have more rotation depth than anyone.

RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
LHP Tom Glavine
LHP Chuck James
RHP Jair Jurrjens
RHP Buddy Carlyle
LHP Mike Hampton
LHP Jo-Jo Reyes
RHP Anthony Lerew

That, dear reader, is a pile of arms. There are throbbing uncertainties in Glavine, Hampton, and the kids; but the volume of starters available to the Braves is astounding. Jurrjens wasn’t spectacular in seven starts for the Tigers and may require some time in AAA. Jo-Jo Reyes averaged about a strikeout per inning in the minors, so he’ll get another shot after struggling (69 ERA+, 0.9 K/BB, 50.2 IP) in 2007. It may take a few months, but they’ll figure out the best five and come on strong in the second half.

CL Raphael Soriano
LHRP Mike Gonzalez
RHRP Peter Moylan
RHRP Manny Acosta
LHRP Will Ohman
LHRP Royce Ring

The bullpen doesn’t have so much depth, but Soriano is solid at the end. Hear that, Bavasi?! If you don’t remember, Bill Bavasi traded Soriano for Horacio Ramirez (7.16 ERA) in the 2006 off-season. Mike Gonzalez may or may not be back from 2007 elbow-ligament-replacement surgery. And since I’m sick of giving Tommy John getting all that free press, that’s how I will refer to that procedure. Peter Moylan‘s return from the scrap heap is worth mentioning, ambiguous Wikipedia wording aside:

1997, After failing to make the Major Leagues, Moylan left the Major League Baseball system. He then took a job as a pharmaceutical salesman in Australia. At a certain point Moylan improved his pitching and began his comeback.

That certain point was the World Baseball Classic in 2006. Sounds fishy to me. He’s a rare commodity: a sidearmer with some heat. Serious regression should be expected; he caught a lot of people by surprise in 2007. The lefties are led by Will Ohman with Royce Ring and newly aquired Jeff Ridgway. None of those are fantastic options so Gonzalez’s recovery is important.

Lineup:
2B Kelly Johnson (L)
SS Yunel Escobar (R)
1B Mark Teixeira (S)
3B Chipper Jones (S)
C Brian McCann (L)
RF Jeff Franceour (R)
CF Mark Kotsay (L)
LF Matt Diaz (R)

They’ve bid adieu to Andruw Jones and replaced him with Mark Kotsay. In name recognition and merchandise sales that’s a huge downgrade, but in actual offensive production Jones is only about 10% better, using career average OPS+. Defensively, Kotsay gets good jumps and takes good routes which make up for his average speed. The future in the outfield isn’t a big concern for new GM Frank Wren, because Jordan Schaefer (.294/.354/.477 in 106 G) had a breakout season in high-A. He’ll start at AA and may debut opening day 2009. Watch for 2007 draftee Jason Heyward as well. Edgar Renteria was shipped to Detroit for Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez, a nice package facilitated by continued Red Sox subsidization of Edgar’s contract. At least Theo the Gunslinger knew when to fold ‘em. Yunel Escobar (.326/.385/.451 in 319 major league at bats) was ready, and the job is his to lose.

The above illustrates Chipper Jones’ career, in games played and OPS+. It shows that he was an ironman for nine years, but the wear and tear caught up to him in 2003 and 2004. With a reduced workload he has regained his former dominance. He’s thirty-six, so a decline would be natural, but if he’s limited to 120 games he can play another three years. A contract year boost from Chipper or Mark Teixiera and a return to 2006 form from Brian McCann and this offense will be just fine to win in the National League.

Philadelphia Phillies

(2007: Actual 89-73, Pythag 87-75)
2008 Projected: 88-74, 6 GB

Dude, Pedro Feliz is not the answer. The ghost of Mike Schmidt has haunted the hot corner in Philly for a decade, turning likes of David Bell, Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms into quivering piles of ineptitude. Feliz’s range was best in the NL according to zone rating, but his historic ability to make outs is well documented. His .290 (!) career OBP is nothing short of terrifying.

SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
CF Shane Victorino (S)
2B Chase Utley (L)
1B Ryan Howard (L)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
RF Jayson Werth (R)/Geoff Jenkins (L)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C Carlos Ruiz (R)

The Phils return the second best offense in baseball (5.51 RPG) missing Aaron Rowand (123 OPS+) in center. The platoon combination of Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins has awesome potential. Hat tip to former Dewey’s House writer Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts. The offense is not the problem.

LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Brett Myers
RHP Kyle Kendrick
LHP Jamie Moyer
RHP Adam Eaton

Solid at the top, but fades quickly. While we were pointing and lauging at old man Charlie Manuel, he actually found a strength in Brett Myers at the end of the pen. Myers is being reluctantly dragged by the hair back into the rotation following the addition of Brad Lidge. There are a few unwritten chapters in this epic drama. Hamels will contend for the Cy Young, but the injury concerns around his 6’3″ 175 pound frame will persist for the rest of his career. In eleven of his twenty-eight starts in 2007, he threw between 110 and 121 pitches. Tread lightly.

Kyle Kendrick had an impressive rookie campaign marred by a disappointing loss in the NLDS to Colorado. Down 0-1 at home, the Phils needed KK to step up and he layed an egg (3.2 IP, 5 ER). Coming out strong will endear him to Manuel and cement his spot in the rotation. Don’t scoff at Jamie Moyer. He’ll take the ball for another 30+ starts at league average production. If the Phils could say the same about Adam Eaton, they’d be in decent shape. Unfortunately, an infusion of young talent isn’t close. Carlos Carrasco had a poor season at AA Reading after a solid first half in the FSL. Kyle Drabek has great stuff, but an elbow injury requiring ligament replacement surgery has halted his development until 2009. The upper minors is a barren wasteland outside of fringe LHP prospect Josh Outman.

CL Brad Lidge
RHRP Tom Gordon
LHRP J.C. Romero
RHRP Ryan Madson
RHRP Scott Mathieson
RHRP Clay Condrey

The Lidge rollercoaster has arrived. Astros’ GM Ed Wade lobbed a meatball to his former team, dealing the talented but inconsistent pitcher for Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary. Lidge’s inconsistency could soon force Myers back to the pen. After losing his closer’s job immediately in 2007, Lidge regained his form and role by midseason with a few minor hiccups along the way. He still strikes batters out at an high rate (11.82 K/9 in 2007) but allows baserunners (1.25 WHIP) and doesn’t “bear down” with runners on (.770 OPS with runners on versus .686 with bases empty).

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies made a run at the division. They should be no worse than third, considering the dreck that’s next. This is turning into a novel, so bear with me.

Florida Marlins

(2007: Actual 71-91, Pythag 72-90)
2008 Projected: 70-92, many GB

Rebuilding? To me, rebuilding happens after some success. The Marlins have bucked the trend and launched into full rebuilding-mode after finishing fifty games out of first. Low standards? Check. I understand that this was the only option, but Dontrelle Willis had far more value two years ago, and it was clear at that point that this wasn’t a playoff team. He should have been dealt long ago for much more, and the Marlins could be two years into this process. It will be a long time before there’s joy in South Florida; at least the return will have an immediate impact. Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Mike Rabelo will be contributors in 2008, whether they’re ready or not.

Rotation:
LHP Scott Olson
RHP Sergio Mitre
LHP Andrew Miller
RHP Ricky Nolasco
RHP Rick VandenHurk
LHP Mark Hendrickson

Ages: 24, 27, 23, 25, 23 and old man river Hendrickson at 34. There will be growing pains, but there will be progress. Josh Johnson is out until 2009 with ligament replacement surgery, and Anibal Sanchez has yet to throw off a mound after 2007 shoulder surgery. His ETA is mid-season at best. Olson was wildly inconsistent in 2007. The big lefty Miller is polished for his tender age, and would contend for ROY if he were eligible. If you’re wondering, the limits to rookie eligibility are 130 at-bats, 50 IP, or 45 days on a ML roster. Miller threw 64 innings in 2007.

Lineup:
CF Cameron Maybin (R)
RF Jeremy Hermida (L)
SS Hanley Ramirez (R)
1B Mike Jacobs (L)
2B Dan Uggla (R)
LF Josh Willingham (R)
3B Dallas McPherson (R)
C Mike Rabelo (S)

Only if I were running things. The irrational crush on stolen bases will cost the Marlin untold runs because manager Fredi Gonzalez will bat Hanley Ramirez first, twisting a stick in the eye of baseball nerds everywhere. His value isn’t in getting on base, but producing runs in the middle of the lineup. Every aspect of his offensive game improved in 2007.

This isn’t meant to be a projection. It is meant to illustrate how much Ramirez improved from 06 to 07. The 2008 column shows his production if the trend continued into 2008. It would be the best three-year improvement in the history of the game (I have no data to back that up), and unlikely, but if he continues at a rate half of which he showed he’ll still be among the top five players in baseball. He’s a butcher in the field, comfirmed by John Dewan’s zone rating (.786, last in NL). You may be interested to know that he’s superior to one shortstop measured by ZR, Captain Derek Jeter. Hanley’s OBP has been driven by hits, but he’s hit enough. The area of his offensive game that can be improved the most is his patience at the plate.

Maybin struggled (.143 BA) in a short stint in the bigs last year, but he’s a well-developed 20-year-old with power and speed. He’s surrounded by Hermida and Willingham in the outfield, both of whom where productive in 07. Willingham is ancient at 29 and his value has declined since moving from behind the plate. Rabelo, a native Floridian, has his first starting gig. He caught Miller a few times last season with Detroit.

CL Kevin Gregg
RHRP Justin Miller
RHRP Matt Lindstrom
LHRP Taylor Tankersley
RHRP Lee Gardner
RHRP Daniel Barone

The bullpen will miss Henry Owens, out for the first half after shoulder surgery. Kevin Gregg is the highest paid player on this team at $2.5 million. Wait, Craig Hansen has made more money than the highest paid Marlin? Actually, the bullpen isn’t as weak as you’d expect from a team with a payroll in the $15 million range. Miller had his best season last year (1.24 WHIP, 74 Ks, 61 IP) and the kids have some talent.

There’s a lot of potential in the starting eight, but the rotation lacks the experience and depth to contend. It won’t be pretty.

Washington Nationals

(2007: Actual 73-89, Pythag 71-91)
2008 Projected: 66-96, a bazillion GB

About a year ago, I wrote the Gnats team preview for Dewey’s House. I predicted 102 losses. They beat my prediction by 13 wins. Their bullpen was stronger than expected (3.81 ERA) and a couple of players (Shawn Hill, DaMeatHook) had good seasons. They open Nationals Park in 2008, which looks pretty average. Gee, was “Baseball Stadium” taken? The marketing guru behind “Nationals Park” needs to start smoking pot or something.

Rotation:
RHP John Patterson
RHP Shawn Hill
RHP Jason Bergmann
LHP Matt Chico
RHP Tim Redding

It appears that Patterson is fully recovered from elbow problems that have sidelined him since 2005. He threw 100 pitches February 9th with no pain. He was one of the top pitchers in the game in his last full season, and will earn less than $1 million this year. He’s got 4+ years of service, so the motivation of impending free agency should drive him. I think he’ll return to form. Hill had elbow and shoulder problems last year, as well as surgery in October to repair a torn labrum. That sentence has more red flags than a communist rally. Bergmann/Chico/Redding will eat some innings. The Nats success will be inversely proportional to number of starts Mike Bacsik (Back-zit?) gets.

Their minor league system is vastly improved under Jim Bowden. Baseball America sings his praises by launching them from 30th to 9th in their organizational rankings. 22 year old lefty Ross Detwiler could make an impact as soon as the second half of 2008, but their decision to bring him up for one appearance in 2007 is curious. First basemen Chris Marrero hit 14 homers in 54 games at Class A.

Lineup:
SS Cristian Guzman (S)
CF Lastings Milledge (R)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
1B Dmitri Young (S)
RF Austin Kearns (R)
LF Wily Mo Pena (R)
2B Ronnie Belliard (R)
C Johnny Estrada (S)

This is an odd lineup. Beyond the lack of a true left handed hitter; vets like Nick Johnson, Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca don’t have starting jobs. PLoD (thanks, Capitol Improvement) was signed as a free agent before his implication in the Mitchell report and knee injury. Bowden must not expect much from LoDuca, because he subsequently nabbed Johnny Estrada and relegated Jesus Flores to Columbus. This post on a BBTF message board from a Brewers fan purporting to be in the know, on Estrada, “he is beyond toxic. He drinks nuclear waste for breakfast and pisses hate. That he is bi-lingual only means he can alienate twice as many people twice as fast.” Maybe he can room with Elijah Dukes?

Lopez was shopped all off-season for pitching, to no avail. He’ll be a $4 million backup. Nick Johnson is on his way back from a broken leg, but will have to win the job from Young. Zimmerman broke his hamate late in 2007, a bone injury notorious for lingering and taking away power.

CL Chad Cordero
RHRP Jon Rauch
RHRP Luis Ayala
RHRP Ryan Wagner
RHRP Jesus Colome
RHRP Saul Rivera

Again, no good left handed option. Detwiler could be the answer, but developing a 22 year old in a major league bullpen is stupid. It might work in brief ‘Joba Chamberlain‘ situations, but not over an entire season. Rauch and Cordero are good against lefties so it might work with smoke and mirrors.

The biggest problem is the injury concern at the top of the rotation. The Nats could run through 15-20 starters again before they figure anything out. They’ll be closer to my failed 102 loss prediction than their actual 89.

In Summary:
Mets 94-68
Braves 93-69
Phillies 88-74
Marlins 70-92
Gnats 66-96

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By Zach, 1/28/2008 7:13 pm

Okay, I got a little excited last night.  24 hours later, Erik Bedard is still an Oriole.   But, if he’s still an Oriole Wednesday morning, Omar Little is gonna have a new target.

If he blocks this trade, Peter Angelos must be eradicated, and I know the perfect man for the job.

“I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It’s all in the game though, right?”

Comments (1)

By Zach, 1/27/2008 9:22 pm

As anticipated, Erik Bedard appears to be headed to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for a package centered on OF Adam Jones. LHRP George Sherrill and prospects are rumored to be included.

This from Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times (quoting Jones):

On the actual deal itself: “(Bill Bavasi) called me yesterday and told me the news. I’ve got to go to Baltimore tomorrow morning and handle things there. I’m the centerpiece of the deal on the Mariners side. It’s an honor to get traded for such a highly talented pitcher as Bedard is. He’s one of the best. Last year he finished up as arguably one of the top candidates for the Cy Young. He’s that good, so for me it’s an honor. You know, I like Seattle, but if I am in Baltimore, as I think now I am, I’m going to embrace it and have the best time of my life in Major League Baseball.”

From USS Mariner.com

We’re not fans of this deal because we believe that the team will regret giving up Adam Jones. That said, Erik Bedard is awesome, and we welcome him to Seattle.

But this still sucks.

I think USS Mariner is suffering from delusional attachment syndrome. We’ve all been there. It depends on the other players involved, but assuming it’s less than Jeff Clement (reportedly it’s Tillman+), Bedard is a unique talent whose performance has improved dramatically every since 2004 and should be acquired at almost any cost. He’s entering his age 29 season and should be one of the game’s top pitchers for years to come. That is, assuming he’s still a Mariner. He’s got 4.7 years of service time and is due approximately $7m in 2008. If Bavasi locks him up for four years in the $60m range it’s a steal. Losing Sherrill thins the pen, but his 45 IP last year, while excellent, are replaceable.

For the O’s, its a remarkable change of philosophy, and executed well. Right now, this trade is mutually beneficial. It sets up the Mariners to contend with the Angels in the West, and adds another piece to the Baltimore rebuilding effort.

Jones will be a star, but Bedard already is. Bavasi escapes the tar and feathers, for now.

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By Zach, 1/21/2008 9:12 am

While crawling through the interweb tubes this beautiful MLK Day morning, I ran full force into an intriguing new way to bet on baseball.  Real Sports Investments.com offers you the opportunity to buy shares of young players for a percentage of their future salary.

This is not an entirely new concept, the now defunct WallStreetSports.com (and a number of imitators) offered the fake money version, but failed to monetize their traffic and folded despite wild popularity around 2002.  As a former obsessive WSS trader, I’ve been waiting to pounce on an able successor.   The combination of the excitement of fantasy sports and the elegance of a market system is the heroin to my Lou Reed.

Beyond the real money returns, RSI improves on the system.  They facilitate a more intimate and mutually beneficial relationship between fan and player.   Their mission is “providing security to players and allowing them to achieve their dreams of playing in the major leagues.  Furthermore, RSI wants to enhance the sports enthusiast’s spectating experience.”

For example, they front $50,000 to the player for four percent of his future big league earnings, which is split into shares and sold as a commodity.  This is geared toward fringe prospects, not bonus babies.  Ideally, the payday advance facilitates the players’ quest to reach the bigs.  With a little cushion between his meager salary and poverty, he’ll use better training facilities and feel less pressure to get a second job in the offseason (link).  The fan can watch his investment prospect develop and root with his wallet in mind in addition to the W column.

This becomes problematic if players sell the majority of the their earnings or fans buy up all of a player; both situations have procedural controls in place.  MLBPA may have a problem with players’ salaries becoming compromised if this becomes widespread, but I doubt much will come of this.

I wouldn’t give up 4% of my future total earnings for $50,000, would you?  The only players I see signing up are those with slim to zero chance of making the bigs, and they will attract few investors.   That will leave RSI with piles of unsold shares and debt from payouts to players who are declining.  It’s a risky endeavor.

It’s a very interesting model, but will only be viable if more players jump on board.  Currently the only traded commodity is the founder, Randy Newsom.  I won’t be investing in Mr. Newsom quite yet, but I will be keeping a close eye on RSI.

Comments (2)

By Zach, 1/2/2008 7:08 am

I think New Year’s Eve used to be a big deal. Actually, I can nail it down: December 31st, 1999 was the last time I cared. Really, it’s just an excuse to drink without abandon, why do you need a “holiday” for that?

Some of my associates went to a trendy lounge hosting a “four hour open bar!” for an exorbitant amount of cash. Been there. It’s never a good idea. You enter with one thing on your mind: must…get…money’s…worth. My New Year’s plans usually involve an event, but only one I’d do any other day of the year: concert, party, shooting craps ‘til dawn in a basement in Old San Juan. Feliz año nuevo, amigos!

The hot stove has become a tepid bath, and I’m turning my sights forward. We’re crankin’ up the flux capacitor and setting the controls for the heart of the sun. The best GMs are not only good at keeping a team competitive short-term, but considering today’s resources to set up the future of the club. This was originally going to be a five-year look, but the endless possibility of changes twirled around and left me crying in a puddle of tear-soaked stat sheets.

Ladies and gentleman, I present your 2010 Red Sox. As usual, this is an exercise involving many assumptions, half-truths and voodoo economics. Hopefully it will provide some perspective; at the very least it should make you happy.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
RF Alex Rios
1B Lars Anderson
LF J.D. Drew
3B Mike Lowell
SS Julio Lugo
C Taylor Teagarden

Notable omissions include Youkilis, Kevin; Varitek, Jason and Ramirez, Manny. The latter has a $20m team option, money that will be better spent elsewhere. Alex Rios is sitting at 4+ years of service time today, making his free agency possible after 2009. Of course, I’m notorious for unrequited crushes on Toronto outfielders (I still love you, Vernon), so Matt Holliday may turn out to be a better option. He’d fill the Ramirez void more completely. Rios’ first four years are frighteningly similar to Coco Crisp’s, another reason to pause. This list is a mixed bag of stars and role players, but contains no one with much hope of replacing the production of Ramirez. I’m waiting for Holliday to prove himself away from Coors and Rios’ power numbers to continue up in 2008. I chose Rios for this exercise because his cost will be lower than the runner-up MVP. The problem with the high upside outfielders in the system (Kalish, Reddick) is their wrong-handedness. Righty Jason Place could be the answer if he cuts out the Francoeur impression, but his 39/13 K/BB in the Hawaiian Winter League is worrisome.

We’ll welcome Texas farmhand Taylor Teagarden with the sad departure of Youkilis, who will become expendable if Anderson tears through Lancaster and Portland in 2008. Youk would be a nice fit in Texas, who will say goodbye to Hank Blaylock after this season and have Chris Davis a few years away. Of course, if the Rangers would rather send us Saltalamacchia, I’d oblige. Among the triumvirate of Texas catchers, I’m less enamored with Max Ramirez’s serious defensive flaws. Teagarden is known as a talented game caller and thrower with offensive questions. Ligament replacement surgery in 2006 hasn’t affected his defense, and in fact he came back stronger at the plate. Last year he posted a 1.012 OPS splitting time in the Cal (A+) and Texas (AA) leagues. You should know to take California League stats with a grain of salt. Keeping Varitek in the fold to coach would be great, ideally he’d be extended after 2008 and phased out of the starting job in 2010. I’d give him the same recurring option deal Wakefield has at twice the salary ($8m) without a second thought.

A lot of things have to go right for this pipe dream to come true, but its not completely unreasonable. Keep an eye on Anderson and Teagarden, with Will Middlebrooks and Oscar Tejeda in mind for the left side post-Lugo/Lowell. Coming next week, the 2010 pitching staff.

Comments (4)

By Zach, 12/12/2007 12:35 pm

Major League Baseball has announced the release of George Mitchell’s report on performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) in baseball.  There will be a press conference, held by Mitchell, in Manhattan 2PM Thursday, December 13.  Bud Selig and other MLB officials will hold their own event at 4:30PM.  The report has been kept close to the vest, only recently we have learned that 50+ names will be part of the unveiling.  Commissioned by MLB and given to Selig prior to its release, this is but the latest charade in the steroid soap opera.

Let me count the ways this is a slap in the face to baseball fans and the American public.

1.  Timing:  Immediately before the holidays, when it will quickly be replaced by mistletoe, egg nog, and good cheer.
2.  Structure:  “If we let these names sneak out in random tests over the next 5 years, individual players will feel a lot of heat.  Let’s just blitzkreig the issue, 50 guys, all at once! Who-wah!”
3.  Commisioned by MLB:  Selig’s office is paying for this, so who is it ultimately going to serve?  You guessed it.

And the final, most egregious, laughable, heinous detail.

4.  Selig recieved the report earlier this week, ostensibly “to make sure it does not contain confidential information that if released would violate the collective bargaining agreement” (AP). Puh-leeze.  Assuming Mitchell was diligent and honest, Selig and his minions will hack this thing to pieces, leaving: the usual suspects, retired players, and some career bad apples.  If anyone was to severly damage baseball’s reputation, why would they make it through?

The intention was to enlist a third party, indepedent council.  Selig’s censorship eliminates all credibility.  Maybe some players will be named, but I don’t put any more stock in this than a press release by the commissioner’s office.

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By Zach, 11/25/2007 10:08 am

Mark me down as cautiously optimistic. I won’t fate my first born to be named “Theo” for another year, or until Epstein spins a package not including Ellsbury and Buchholz for Danny Haren. I’m not ready to fall in love with the 2008 Red Sox, nor will I banish them to the depths of my consciousness until February. As other teams are fighting over Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse, we can sit back and shine our World Series Trophy, or whatever else you choose to shine. Give credit where it’s due, and the rockstar GM deserves the lion’s share. A great general manager is separated from the good ones by the ability to predict future markets, without the use of a tarot cards, a cauldron, or a dart board. It appears that is what Theo has done heading into 2008.

Pitching is becoming exponentially more expensive. A.J. Burnett’s $33 million until 2010 will be a bargain if he can stay healthy: Silva and Lohse might get double that in total dollars. The Royals look prophetic for locking Gil Meche up last year. In the interest of full disclosure, I was one (of many) vilifying Dayton Moore for that one. The luxury of staying out of the FA pitching market this year will give the Sox greater flexibility to go after difference makers in the future, and maybe they’ll get to 103.

The Lowell contract is interesting. Notice, I didn’t say “terrible” or “makes me want to vomit,” I think its somewhere between “concerning” and “fine.” As the recent past has indicated, giving contracts based on emotion generally turn out badly. If Theo had done what you idiots were pining for after 2004 and kept the team together, we’d have Johnny Damon in center and Billy Mueller at third until 2013. I do miss those towering foul balls though, Kev. Lowell and Varitek’s deals have undoubtedly had a certain flavor of hometown hero in the decision making process. Not disastrous, but a disturbing trend. The best GMs are stoics.

In his age 29 and 30 seasons (2003 and 2004) Lowell put up career high OPS+ numbers of 128 and 127. Then came his much-publicized cliff dive: 77 in 2005. His first season in Boston was 104 and finally, 124 in 2007. So, next year he’ll be 34 and paid like he was 29. If he experiences any decline from career highs over the next three he’ll be grossly overpaid. I just don’t see him outperforming his 90th percentile PECOTA, as he did in 2007, for the next three years. At the same time, what matters most is the total dollars, and for Lowell they aren’t huge. For 2008, he is the best option, as Varitek was in 05.

One big, high-upside arm would complete the bullpen, and Kerry Wood looks like he’s willing to accept a one-year deal. He’s hardly pitched at all in the last three years, with 24.2 IP in 2007, his first from the bullpen. He averaged almost a K/IP and if he can stay healthy he will be a dominant reliever in a market full of former closers. Clearly a big if, but the upside outweighs the risk. I don’t want any part of Scott Linebrink, who has thrown 70+ innings for 5 consecutive seasons. His last two seasons have been fairly pedestrian (1.21, 1.32 WHIP) and heading into his 31st birthday he’s not a guy I’d target for anything but a decline. Other guys (Dotel, Gagne) are only looking at jobs as closers, and the depths of the barrel include Armando Benitez and LaTroy Hawkins. Please god, no. Overpay a bit for Wood on a one year deal and cross your fingers.

As a big proponent of the “throw a ton of shit against the wall and see what sticks” method of bullpen construction, this facet of the team concerns me. There isn’t room for error. Manny Delcarmen is capable of becoming the 8th inning crutch, but Craig Hansen or Justin Masterson had better make some strides to spread the work around. Doomsday scenario: Julian Tavarez and Javier Lopez in high leverage spots in August, with MDC/Oki on the shelf from overuse.

I’d like to see Theo bluff to the river with his centerfield cards, unless one is part of a deal for an elite arm. The market is flooded with talent in center. With Kielty and Hinske free agents, the bench is a blank slate that could be filled by whoever loses the job. One of our undervalued commodities shouldn’t be given away for a spare part, especially in a market with lots of superior talent. This team’s needs are so few, allowing Ellsbury a chance to mature at the ML level and Coco a season to produce offensively would likely increase their net value and one can be moved for a real need in 2009: starting pitching. Present value on these two is low and pitching is expensive now, so the prudent option is to wait. Finding each 350 ABs shouldn’t be too difficult.

Thanks Theo, you’ve set this team up beautifully. If it was an accident, you’re very lucky. If it was skill, you’ve turned the economic advantages of the Red Sox into an exponentially greater benefit; something your predecessors were unable to do.

Comments (9)

By Zach, 11/11/2007 6:25 pm

The Red Sox third base vacancy and outfield log jam have been popular topics of conversation.  I’ve had more than a few discussions around the water cooler about A-Rod versus Cabrera, Lowell’s value in two years, and handing centerfield to a rookie.  This is strange, because few have noticed the actual situation.  There is no hole to fill, the Red Sox only move this offseason is to do nothing at all.

LF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH Manny Ramirez
1B David Ortiz
3B Kevin Youkilis
RF J.D. Drew
C Jason Varitek
CF Coco Crisp
SS Julio Lugo

This lineup works pretty well and transforms the outfield defense.  The infield is downgraded, but assuming it won’t be a playable unit is jumping to a conclusion.  Figure out what you’ve got and address the need.  Worst case scenario? Cris Carter builds on his .398/.423/.581 line from the Venezuelan Winter League while a suitable ML talent is found.

The benefit is cost.  Save some cash and give Johan a blank check in a year.  Santana/Beckett/Matsuzaka/Buchholz/Lester wins 95 with a little league team behind them.

Comments (5)

By Zach, 11/7/2007 7:38 am

It’s over.  The Red Sox are the World Champions.  They have reached the ultimate goal, the only acceptable outcome.  A dear friend, who has a great deal more perspective than I do, said recently “ninety-five of the emotion during most seasons is agony, the other five is relief.”  This season, more than 2004, has proven that true.  There is no burden of a long winless streak lifted, just a successful ending to another season.  The first time is always the best, but the only emotion after game four was relief.  If 2004 was like bagging the hottest chick in high school, 2007 was like making out with her tom-boy twin sister.

After basking in the afterglow for a few days, we set our sights on next year with bragging rights secured for the next eleven months.  The Red Sox are in a nice position.  The loss of Mike Lowell is meager compared to years past.  If a team can position itself to have no more than two major holes to fill each offseason, they’re a well-managed squad.  This team has one.  With the resigning of Curt Schilling, the Sox can turn their full attention to the 1B/3B void left by Lowell, who shouldn’t get a four year contract.  I’m not going to get into that though.

There are two guys available that really excite me: Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera.  I’m going to assume a few things to illustrate my point, which you might disagree with:

1. Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera will put up comparable offensive numbers for the next six years.  Not unreasonable.
2. Clay Buchholz will develop into an All-Star caliber pitcher.  Also not out of the realm of possibilities.
3. Cabrera will cost the Sox Clay Buccholz.  Likely, considering other names being thrown around: Kershaw, Gallardo, Hughes.

On the surface, the two elite third basemen have different costs.  After looking into it a little further, I’m not so sure they do.  We all understand dollars, right?  A-Rod is easy, 300 million of them.  If the Sox sign A-Rod, they’ll get to keep Clay Buchholz, who will cost approximately $30 million in arbitration ($8, $10, $12mil).  So on one side we’ve got A-Rod and Buccholz around $330 million.

Cabrera will cost Clay Buchholz and approximately $40 million in arbitration over the next three years.  After that, he’d be looking for A-Rod type money, or more likely, $25 million for six years ($150 million).  So what does the loss of Clay Buchholz cost?  Its tough to say, but if he develops into a top of the rotation starter, he would be worth $18-22 million on the free agent market.  Conservatively, a Buccholz replacement would be $15 million for 6 years, or $90 million.  On this side we’ve got Cabrera and an unnamed pitcher for $280 million.

There’s about fifty million bucks on one side, but that comes with the increasing waistline of Fat Miguel.  A-Rod at third and Youkilis at first would be a better infield combo than Youkilis at third and Cabrera in the dugout, but will Clay Buccholz develop into better than a $15 million a year pitcher?  If the answer is yes, you keep him and throw as much money as you want at A-Rod.  The A-Rod sticker shock is extreme, but the dollars associated with Cabrera aren’t far off.

Comments (10)

By Zach, 10/25/2007 6:47 am

Much was made of the Rockies extended layoff heading into the World Series. I don’t want to hear any excuses. They shrugged it off, as most professional athletes would. It turns out playing with yourself for a while isn’t the best way to prepare for a big date.

If you told me that Beckett would strike out the side in the first, and Pedroia would follow with a lead off home run, I wouldn’t have been surprised. The Sox continued right where they left off, an unstoppable offensive force. The final cog was the two out RBI (J Drew 2, D Ortiz 2, J Varitek 2, K Youkilis, M Ramirez, J Lugo, J Ellsbury, D Pedroia.) My only note from the first few innings preparing for this post: “Sox look awesome.”

I’m sick of the Tulowitzki vs. Braun NY ROY debate. Braun hit 34 bombs in 451 ABs, while Tulowitzki hit 24 in 609 ABs. Braun carried his team offensively during Prince Fielder’s cold June/July/August. Yeah, Tulowitzki has a cannon, but the impact Braun had on his team was greater. This is a nice problem to have. Two (maybe three) over-qualified candidates is better than the “Ah, I guess we’ll give it to Carlos Febles” years.

Not only did the Red Sox come away with a win, they prevailed in the battle of bullpen management. While Clint Hurdle ran through Matt Herges, Jeremy Affeldt, and LaTroy Hawkins late in the game; Tito gave the ball to Timlin and Gagne and said “Do your worst.”

The Curious Case of Curt Schilling

Hallelujah! The second coming of Bono, Curt Schilling himself, is starting game two for the Red Sox. He’s been there when it counts, especially for his 2008 contract. When he tosses a perfect game tonight, I’ll happily partake in whatever he’s offering, but until then I’ll maintain my irrational dislike. Amen.

Let’s talk about perception. In this case, how we perceive Curt Schilling, and how he wants us to. Some see him as a over-exposed attention whore, and some as an old school ambassador for hard nosed baseball. Clearly, there is a great divide in Red Sox Nation. If you’re new to Dewey’s House, or I haven’t made it clear, I subscribe to the drama queen school of thought. If you’re drinkin’ the Schill-ade and like his vocal moral stance, you may want to shield your eyes. That’s it, I’m through apologizing.

He goes to extreme lengths for us to notice him. We have heard his tireless campaigning for support: he conducts frequent interviews on WEEI while driving, showering, and shopping for pleated slacks. Between blogging and pitching he finds the time to post on a certain message board, of which I am not popular enough to belong. He has delivered babies and scored touchdowns. He is everywhere, all the time.

His motivation for this unprecedented exposure is currently unknown, but it’s not accidental. The attention strokes his ego, but does he realize the damage it has done? Why take the chance? What does he want us to believe? Why make such an effort to fit in? My contention is simple. His straightforward “honesty,” constant reminders of charitable work, political leanings and sock-stigmata point to one thing: he wants to be our Savior. He wants to be all things to all of Red Sox Nation. A bastion of morality, a hero on the field, and our buddy from a message board. It isn’t enough for us to simply like him, we must adore him, worship him. Curt Schilling is campaigning to be Jesus.

It’s possible that this is unconscious, and I don’t particularly care that he’s got a schoolboy crush on me and every fan. I like the amount of information he supplies us, but its the way he supplies it that irks me. As if we owe him something for his effort.

I’m thankful he’s here, because he’s the most interesting character on this team. I really just want to ask him one question: What is your agenda, Curt? I’m sure the answer would be “I don’t have an agenda, I’m just here to win a championship.” Which annoys the hell out of me. As soon as the questions get tough, he reverts to sports-speak cliches. Just Curt being curt.

Ugueth’s Long Lost Cousin

The twenty-three year old Ubaldo Jimenez represents the second installment of the Colorado Young Starter Transition (CYST). He stepped in midseason and solidified the rotation after an underwhelming AAA campaign. If a 5.85 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 19 AAA starts is any indication of his talent, Ubaldo had better make sure his neck is stretched out before Thursday’s contest. At the time of his call-up, the Rockies were looking up at four teams in the NL West, a game under .500, so they had the luxury of easing him in. As it happened, there was nothing to be tentative about. His consistency was unexpected and a major reason for their resurgence. Excuse me while I indulge in some cherry-picking, but in 14 of 17 starts he allowed three runs or less. He’s a fastball-curve guy, topping out in the high 90s. The Red Sox need to lay off the high heat and make him throw his curve for strikes.

Winning game one is important. Going to Colorado up 2-0 would be awesome. The DH disadvantage shouldn’t be overlooked, the way Youkilis is swinging the bat I can’t make a case for him sitting. I’ve gone from being staunchly “Ortiz at first no matter what” to “infield defense is important” after imagining Manny chasing balls into the gaps in Coors. The look on Ortiz’s face rounding second base in the fourth inning was agony. The outfield defense will be challenged enough. There is no room for error on the infield.

Comments (1)

By Zach, 10/21/2007 6:11 am

This is familiar territory. This game is no different than the last two. This is no different than years past.

As game six progressed from “sure thing” to “laughable” it became frustrating. Not because the outcome was in doubt, but because Eric Wedge would finally get a chance to really bury himself in sh*t, and he blew it. The Indians pen was not burnt to a crisp, merely roasted to a nice golden brown. If only we saw Betancourt — the Moby Dick to our Captain Ahab. Touche, Monsiuer Wedge. We’ll see you in hell.

The Red Sox are, once again, the best team in baseball. They’re back on the doorstep of the ultimate goal, one win away from the biggest of dances. It’ll take a solid performance from Diasuke Matsuzaka, and the offense to show up again.

Comments (3)

By Zach, 10/20/2007 4:32 pm

Ellsbury in; Crisp out

Loyal Puppy Francona has benched Coco Crisp for Jacoby Ellsbury in the biggest game of the season. His tendency to stick with the Vets is well documented (see Millar, Kevin), which makes me wonder if this decision came from above. I’d give a digit (well, a toe) to know the details of the Front Office-Tito relationship.

The media has been pining for this since the Sox started losing — not entirely incorrectly, as Coco has limped to a 3-21, 0 BB line in the ALCS. What did you expect?

I’m excited to see what the kid can do. No pressure. Just an elimination game. Let’s see if he’s got the stones.

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By Zach, 10/11/2007 7:46 pm

Here we are again. It’s Thursday night, and tomorrow there’s a Red Sox playoff game. I’ll be the guy pacing around the office, checking his watch incessantly. The last few days I’ve been psyching myself up so much I don’t know if I can handle any adversity. The moment when I can finish all my thinking, make all my phone calls to loved ones, and rendezvous with some hambone-buddies to celebrate a Game One victory into the wee hours is nigh.

I just heard, “it doesn’t get much better than Brandon Webb versus Jeff Francis” on the TBS NLCS pregame show. Yes, it does. Have you looked at the probables for tomorrow? Are you high?! Oh, the Rockies and the D-Backs are playing in the NLCS? One team is thankful for the return of Willy Tavares, the other has Augie Ojeda at second. Right, no one cares.

Eric Byrnes just said “we’ve defied all the Nostradamuses.” As awkward as that was to write, it was worse to hear. If I’d been able to watch anything in the realm of reputable sports over the last few days there’s no way I’d be watching this game. Sabres-Thrashers on HDNet was cool for about fifteen minutes, but I need to satisfy the baseball craving somehow. Holy shit, I wish the Mets/Phillies/Cubs were in this series: the Diamondbacks just scored in the bottom of the first, and I’ve completely lost interest. Is it wrong of me to wonder if there are more wheelchair accessible seats in Pheonix? Yes.

So, I’ll turn to tomorrow. Bobby Kielty will get the start over J.D. Drew in right, I guess a 1.030 OPS in 29 ABs should get the nod over the 0-3 Drew. It’s not Kielty Carsten Charles should fear, its Manny. The new media darling has a mere four homers and three doubles (1.894 OPS) against the Dumptruck. In very limited action, Travis Hafner, Jason Michaels and Kenny Lofton have aggregates over 1.000 against Beckett. Whatever.

The pitching matchups are square in Games One and Two, but advantage Sox in Three and Four. Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd give up hits and runs, and when this lineup clicks, it eats up middle of the rotation guys. A split at Fenway is fine with me. Under what conditions does Beckett get the start over Wake in Game Four? I don’t agree with it, but I think it’s going to be Wake unless, god forbid, its 0-3. At that point, every game is a must win and the Cy Young needs as many starts as he can get. In two previous career appearances on three days rest, he’s been awesome (1.12 ERA, 9 Ks) but it’s only 8 IP. I like Beckett in One, Four and Seven more than I like Daisuke in Three and Seven. There are only two days between Five and Seven, if Beckett doesn’t start Four, he’ll only get two. Now repeat that back to me.

Did I mention that I can’t wait for Joe Borowski to crash and burn? His time is up.

Clearly small market teams can be competitive in any single year, and I’m sure we’ll see a few in the playoffs every season. If the alternative was true, if every big budget team was automatically a contender, this sport would be boring and dead. With two uber-rich teams, and no, I don’t make a big distinction between the Sox and Yankees’ payroll, we’ll see one of them and a few of the other guys in every postseason. This year, none of the $80-110 million squads got lucky enough to win a series. We’re lucky that John Henry sees the value in winning every year, and the Yawkey Trust did their due diligence in selecting a buyer back in 2001. Go Sox.

Comments (2)

By Zach, 10/5/2007 8:37 am

Happy Friday! It gets better. There’s a Red Sox playoff game tonight. Amazingly, the Sox got the primetime slot over the Yankees and face off against Kelvim Escobar and the Angels at 8:37 EDT. The Indians send Fausto Carmona (1.71 ERA last 21 IP) to the hill against Andy Pettitte (5.79 ERA last 18.2 IP) at 5pm. But you already knew this, let’s get on with it.

Traitor?
I’m rooting for the Yankees. I know, the Indians rotation is a different animal in a longer series. The same can be said for the Yankees, and while they clearly have a better lineup, I can’t predict who will be the tougher opponent. Every series is different and season numbers are thrown out the window with bullpen management. Facing the Yankees offers one guarantee: the opportunity to beat the Yankees. Clearly, objective numero uno is advancing from the ALDS and then the ALCS, so yes, I’m getting ahead of myself and should take it one game at a time and other manager-speak cliches, but going through the Yankees would be more exciting. I guess it’s the romantic in me.

Back to Earth
There’s a game to win tonight. Daisuke Matsuzaka comes in on five days of rest, no small detail. His last three starts have been laborious, throwing 119, 117, and 120 pitches. In his most recent bout of ineffectiveness, September 3 and 8, he averaged 110 pitches in the six previous starts. Going further back, his July 8th performance (5IP, 10 H, 6 ER) was preceded by a string of six where he threw an average of 120 pitches. The extra day of rest will prove invaluable. 7IP, 5H, 2BB, 10K.

Kelvim Escobar has been slowed in September by shoulder inflammation. Back-to-back 6ER performances got him skipped in the rotation, only to come back with a vengeance on the 29th. He’s had David Ortiz’s number (.551 OPS in 24 ABs), but Coco and Lugo are a combined 9-21 with 5 BB.

I see another low scoring game, decided by the middle of the bullpens. Each team is strong in the eighth and ninth, but the outs in the sixth and seventh should be treated with just as much care. Tito, there’s no game tomorrow, don’t be afraid to trot Okajima and Papelbon out before their traditional assignments.

Comments (1)

By Zach, 9/20/2007 6:36 am

Red Sox 1
Blue Jays 6

From the Department of Irrational Optimism: at least there’s time to turn it around.