Just a few quick thoughts as I try to get back on my regular schedule after a few grueling weeks. Yes; recaps, previews, and rankings will continue here posthaste.
- HBO’s Game of Thrones is currently the best show on television, and last Sunday’s episode left me unable to sleep. With all the different versions of “NCIS”, “Top Chef”, and “30 Yuppies Fighting Over an Expensive Prostitute” (or whatever that show is actually called), it’s great to once again have something worth using the DVR space on.
- If the NBA Finals had gone a different way, I probably would have lost 100% of my interest in the league. Lebron James is simply too despicable. This guy actually made statements after the game to the effect of “It’s God’s plan for me to eventually win” and “My critics are just bitter because they’re poor and miserable”, and such. Sure, I am poor and miserable, but correlation doesn’t equal causation, Bron!
- Before the 2010 season, I predicted a bust-out All Star campaign from Jacoby Ellsbury that included a modest increase in power to go along with his high batting average and dominance of the basepaths. Of course, he had his collision with Adrian Beltre and that never happened. However, I feel somewhat vindicated considering his torrid play this season. Right now, he is one of the best lead-off hitters in the game.
- Beer recommendation: this is something that I imagine would be very difficult to get outside of the Boston area, but there is a local craft brewery called “Pretty Things” that has a few outstanding selections. Yeah, the name is a little dainty and they’ll likely serve it to you in a tulip glass, but once you swallow your pride and have a sip or two, you’ll thank me.
- While it seems like just about everyone on the Red Sox roster is on fire, the one guy who was hitting back in April has cooled down considerably. Jed Lowrie is hitting .226/.293/.323 since May 1st.
- J.D. Drew has also been quiet this year, but sadly, I think it’s a function of him getting old. Drew, of course, was always injury prone, but when you hit your mid thirties, the tightness and the soreness that once would go away in a 24 hour span now lingers for quite a bit longer. It’s not a fun thing to encounter.
- Catching prospect Ryan Lavarnway, a guy who has shown an improvement in his defense this year, has been promoted to Pawtucket. He is certainly someone to keep an eye on.
- The one thing that will get me out of my seat quickly: seeing Sarah McLachlan appear on the television. As soon as her Canadian face pops up on my screen, a frantic scramble for the remote ensues. I swear, I’m like Vince Wilfork going after a loose ball; my lightning-quick hands and feet propelled by immense fury and hunger as I grab that piece of plastic and push either the “Channel Up” or “Channel Down” button (it doesn’t matter which). I have nothing against Sarah or her music, but I just don’t feel like seeing any more footage of a one-eyed puppy, you know?
- A re-worked prospect list will be published shortly, however, I’m not going to include any of the draftees until they actually sign.
So, it looks like neither Bell nor Norris will be happening, as the Sox took a college outfielder with their final pick in Day One of the draft. Jackie Bradley was one of the best outfielders in college baseball as a sophomore last season before hurting his wrist and having a mediocre junior year. This sort of follows the strategy the Sox employed when drafting both Anthony Ranaudo and Bryce Brentz in 2010; taking polished college players whose stock dropped due to a recent injury.
He’s a quick, athletic left-handed hitting outfielder. The Sox have gravitated towards this type of player several times in recent drafts, and it’s worked out fairly well for them.
On that note…good night. More during Day Two tomorrow afternoon.
This pick took a little wind out of my sails, as I was expecting the Sox to go after one of the two ultra-expensive high school talents still on the draft board (Josh Bell or Daniel Norris). However, I really can’t get too disappointed with a 6’6″ left-handed high schooler whose fastball touches 94 MPH.
Aside from a decent fastball, Henry Owens also throws an array of breaking balls that could prove difficult to hit for the big left-handed hitters in professional ball.
As with the others, more later.
Here you are seeing the first example of the Red Sox attempting to out-muscle the other franchises with their wallet in this draft, as Blake Swihart is a high-priced high school catcher who is committed to play for his dream school, the University of Texas. Swihart, aside from being the most highly-touted catcher in this draft class, is one of the best high school bats and likely would have been drafted sooner were it not for his price tag and his strong commitment to attend college.
He’s very quick and athletic for a catcher, and some actually believe that he would be better suited at 2B or 3B. The Sox will likely try their hardest to develop him behind the plate, where he would have the most value.
More on him later.
The Connecticut contingent of Red Sox Nation (this generally refers to any denizens of the Constitution State residing east of Interstate 91) ought to be pleased at the Sox’ first pick in the draft. Matt Barnes is a 6’4″, 205 lb right-handed pitcher from the UConn Huskies.
Barnes supposedly has a pretty good fastball in the mid to low 90′s. I just saw some film on his on the MLB Network, and a couple of things stood out:
1) In an interview, he referred to his fastball the “no-seam fastball”. He then demonstrated his grip for the camera, and sure enough, both his index and middle fingers rest firmly on the leather portion of the ball, between the seams. You don’t see that very often.
2) I’m sure I’m not the only one that balked a bit when he said “My favorite player is Joba Chamberlain“. I mean, I get that he’s a Yankees fan given the geography, but does he really have to pick the most loathsome player in the entire league? “My favorite player is the fat, drunken, underachieving hick on the most unlikable team in professional sports“. Um, red flag anyone?
Seriously though, I’ll update this with a more thorough scouting report once I gather more information. In summary, the Red Sox appeared to go with a relatively safe, projectable pick at #19, drafting a polished college-age workhorse who could slide into the back of the rotation in a few years if he stays healthy.
Justin Masterson, a guy who most you are presumably familiar with, could run into problems against Boston’s left-handed bats. Carl Crawford in particular has hit him well in the past, and guys like Drew and Ortiz could have a big night if Masterson hangs around the plate.
Even this year, when he is at the top of his game and among the league leaders in ERA, left-handers are .326/.380/.434 against him.
Notes
- Bobby Abreu has faced Josh Beckett 101 times in his career, more than any other hitter in the game. The 2nd guy on that list is Captain Intangibles (Derek Jeter) with 83 plate appearances against Beckett.
- The Sox have now won 15 out of their last 16 games against the Angels.
Daisuke is of course coming off of his amazing two-start reign of terror, in which he became the first Red Sox pitcher since 2002 (and only the second since 1923) to allow less than 2 hits over 7+ innings in back-to-back games. The last guy to do it in ’02? I don’t know, some Dominican guy with curly hair. He was an above-average pitcher, if I recall correctly. I can’t seem remember his name…
Most of you are quite familiar with Baltimore starter Jeremie Guthrie, as he’s a guy the Red Sox have faced 3 or 4 times per season for the past several years. Guthrie is the type of pitcher where you can’t help but wonder how he manages to be as effective as he is. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and he’s not a ground ball pitcher, yet he’s been the most reliable pitcher in Baltimore over the last few seasons.
While Guthrie has pitched well so far in 2011, the Red Sox (and their left-handed hitters in particular) have crushed him in the past. This could be one of those nights where the Sox approach double-digits in the runs column.
Speaking of Luke Scott, check out his numbers against Beckett. Yikes. Will he take out his Real American Joe Sixpack™ rage against those blue-blooded elitists from Boston? We shall see.
In the offseason, Buck Showalter accomplished a tremendous feat: he brought media attention to the Baltimore Orioles. Of course, he did this by acting like a jackass, but that does not lessen his improbable achievement. Congrats, Buck. You may never win a championship, but you’ll always have Men’s Journal.
Today marks the first day that Showalter can act on his words, as the Red Sox visit Camden Yards for “an away game”. They’ll be facing a rookie out of Baltimore’s stable of promising young pitchers: LHP Zach Britton. Britton has been impressive in the early going, winning 3 out of the 4 games he has started with a 3.16 ERA over 25.2 innings. Since there is no head-to-head data to look at, here’s a quick rundown on the new guy:
- A top prospect in the organization (#2 at Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, #1 at Fangraphs)
- Early R.O.Y. candidate
- Heavy 92-93 MPH sinker, lots of ground ball outs
- Pedestrian K/BB rates: 7.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in minors last year
- Throws a changeup and a slider, but mostly relies on his fastball
In comparison to Tyler Chatwood, the rookie right-hander from Anaheim we saw last week, Britton appears to be more polished with better command.
It’s a little late, but I’ve finally added a Power Rankings page to the site. See here (or click the “Power Rankings” link at the top of the page).
My formula for each team’s power score goes something like this:
.10 (Prior Year Coefficient) + .05 (Age Coefficient) + .35 (Predicted Win Coefficient) + .50 (Actual Performance)
- Prior Year Coefficient = a number based on the team’s Pythagorean record in 2010.
- Age Coefficient = a number based on the team’s average age (used to deflate scores based on injury probabilities).
- Predicted Win Coefficient = A number that I determine based on how many wins I believe a team will have at the end of the season, based on current information.
- Actual Performance = a number based on the team’s current Pythagorean Record.
The first two variables will remain constant over the course of the season (I might update the average ages after the trading deadline), while the last two will be changing regularly.
This clearly isn’t an exact science, and I may tinker with the formula in the future if I find a better way to do this.
Thanks to Chris Creamer’s logo website, which is worth checking out for any baseball fan. The historical logos are especially interesting.
It’s Good Friday, so naturally, the pitching matchup is…good.
I’m assuming Kevin Youkilis will be out of the lineup tonight, since a) he sustained a minor injury yesterday, and b) he’s struggled against Haren (.188/.188/.188 in 16 plate appearances).
Other notes:
- Today is Terry Francona’s 52nd birthday.
- I’ll be touching on the proposed playoff expansion in the next couple of days.
As the Sox travel south on the Pacific Coast Highway and pull into Anaheim, they will prepare to face a pitcher whom they’ve never seen before, 21-year-old right-hander Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood was the #4 prospect in the Angels organization, according to Fangraphs.
Now, maybe I’m falling into some sort of a heuristic bias trap here, but it seems like the Red Sox have generally struggled against this type of pitcher in recent years (a somewhat highly-touted rookie making one of his first few starts in the Majors). This could be all in my head, or it could be a genuine trend attributable to the lack of data available for our hitters to use in preparation for the game.
In any event, here’s a quick scouting summary on Chatwood:
- 92-94 MPH 4-seam fastball
- Decent curveball
- Can be wild (3.7 BB/9 last year, combined)
- Isn’t a big strikeout pitcher (6.3 K/9 last year, combined)
- Was able to get lots of ground ball outs in the minors
- Pitched very well in Chicago in his last start (7 innings, 5 hits and 2 walks allowed)
It seems like the Red Sox might do well against this guy if they are patient and force him to throw strikes. However, if the usual suspects get up there and choppity-chop-chop at everything in the zone, it could be a long, frustrating night with a lot of weak ground balls.
Here’s the pitcher vs. batter data:
Several of those Angels hitters have pounded Beckett in the past, but at this point you have to consider his split personality. Were they facing the overweight Beckett who can’t throw his curveball without pulling an oblique muscle? Or were they facing the current iteration of Beckett? The differences are staggering.
The Red Sox were predictably flummoxed by Oakland’s good, young left-handed pitcher in yesterday’s loss. Good thing they won’t be facing another pitcher like that tonight, right? Oh, wait…
Gio Gonzalez, a 25-year-old lefty, is the current league leader in ERA (0.47). If you have some episodes of House clogging up your DVR, tonight might be a good night to catch up on them.
As the Red Sox look for their first road win in Oakland tonight, they’ll be facing a left-hander who has dominated the Sox like no other pitcher. In 81 plate appearances, Brett Anderson has held Red Sox hitters to a pathetic .115/.148/.179 line. With Lackey starting for the Sox, this could be one of those west coast games that make fans regret staying up late.
I’m only speculating that McDonald starts for Drew, who has struck out 3 times in 3 at-bats against Anderson. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Elsbury and/or Ortiz get a night off (Cameron at CF, Scutaro at SS, Lowrie at 3B, and Youk at DH) and possibly Varitek behind the plate again.
The only guy in Oakland’s lineup who has had sustained success against Lackey is Daric Barton, so this could be a good opportunity for a struggling pitcher to regain some swagger. And yes, I do realize that the term “swagger” is the pitcher’s version of “grit”, but I’ll use it here anyway.
“I know this: #Jays have a better rotation than #RedSox or #Yankees. That goes a long way.”
Fox Sports baseball analyst Jon Morosi tweeted that statement on April 10th. I immediately stopped following him when he wrote that. Writers who belch out half-baked analysis based on a sample size of 7 or 8 games aren’t really featured on my must-read list.
Certainly, the Jays have an interesting young rotation, anchored by Ricky Romero and featuring impressive youngster Kyle Drabek. Tonight, however, the Sox face Toronto’s #5 starter, and counter with last year’s ERA+ champ. Let’s see how both teams match up.
Overall, current Blue Jays have hit .228/.265/.346 against Buchholz, while the Sox have hit .382/.429/.724 (!) against Cecil. This seems like a decent opportunity to get the Sox offense going.
It’s a battle of elite left-handers tonight, as Jon Lester takes the hill against David Price.
I’m guessing Darnell McDonald will be starting in place of J.D. Drew, as he’s fared well enough against Price in the past. A more creative move would be to start Jed Lowrie at 1B and DH Adrian Gonzalez in place of Ortiz, but I doubt that will actually happen.
Media Watch:
More often than not, I find myself agreeing with Pete Abraham’s take on the Sox, but when he announces that the time is now to trade Daisuke Matsuzaka, I couldn’t disagree more. It’s a knee-jerk reaction after a horrible performance, but I do think Daisuke can build up some more trade value with decent performances before we entertain this idea. At this point, his trade value is as low as it’s ever been.
There are two big stories here, neither of which have much to do with action on the field.
- Manny Ramirez: yadda yadda yadda. The writers who believe in the Norman Rockwell world of baseball (where no one cheats and players hit home runs for sick children in hospitals) will keep Manny out of the Hall of Fame. Ironically, they will vote for dozens of other players who have used PEDs, but were savvy or lucky enough to not get caught.
- Johnny Damon: the polarizing outfielder returns to Fenway for the first time in a non-Yankees uniform. He should receive a raucous ovation from every paying customer in the park, and I think the greeting he actually does receive is something around 80/20 (mostly cheers). This is based on my experience at the stadium last night. If I were to map this out on a Venn diagram, you’d see that most of the people who loudly participate in “Yankees suck” chants are generally the same ones who will still harbor resentment towards Damon. Disclaimer: I myself have participated in these chants, but only in special occasions (bench clearing brawls, etc); I’m far from the perfect Red Sox fan.
As far as the on-field action goes:
This will be the first time seeing Hellickson for most of the Red Sox hitters. He’s a right-hander with very good command of a low-90′s fastball, a changeup, and a curveball. Hellickson was terrific in AAA last year, and impressive is a handful of innings at the Major League level. He doesn’t walk many people (33/8 K/BB last year), so the Sox might have some difficulty if they try the patient approach tonight.
I’m guessing Kotchman gets the start tonight as he’s hit Matsuzaka very well in the past.
Frankly, this pitching matchup scares me. In a perfect world, Hellickson would be a good guy for aggressive left-handed hitters to face, such as Ellsbury and Crawford. The problem is, neither of those guys are hitting right now.
Maybe it’s a good thing that the Opening Day crowds at Fenway these days mostly consist of the indifferent scenesters (I don’t like using this term but you’ve probably heard them referred to as “Pink Hats”) and bridge-and-tunnel corporate types, similar to a Super Bowl. Otherwise, you might hear a smattering of boos here and there.
And just as a side note, I actually much prefer sitting amongst Pink Hats (I’ll use this term again for the sake of brevity) than I do the self professed “real fans” who scream at J.D. Drew because his uniform isn’t dirty enough. The difference between the Pink Hats and the idiotic blowhards is that the former population usually has the self-awareness to admit that they don’t know everything. That, and they’re typically nicer to look at.
Here’s the match-up data for the first Sox-Yanks game of the year:
Sully, the guy who used to write this blog before I came in and chased away most of the readers, notes that Scutaro is starting again, despite not faring well against Hughes in the past.
It doesn’t really matter which pitcher the Red Sox are facing at this point. A 10-year-old German Shepherd with bad hips could be on the mound for the Tribe, and he would give up only 1 run over 7 solid innings.
But, just in case you are curious, the Sox are actually facing Fausto Carmona this afternoon. Carmona is an extreme ground ball pitcher (60% ground ball rate over the course of his career) who throws a hard sinking fastball. While he’s inconsistent at times, he has the stuff of an elite pitcher and could easily shut down this struggling Red Sox team.
While Jon Lester is the staff ace of the Red Sox, let’s keep in mind as we head into his second appearance of 2011 that he is notorious for struggling in the early part of the season.
Here are his second April starts in each of the last three years:
- 4/12/2010 – 5 innings, 9 hits allowed, 3 walks, 4 earned runs (loss)
- 4/13/2009 – 6 innings, 10 hits allowed, 0 walks, 6 earned runs (loss)
- 4/9/2008 – 5.1 innigs, 5 hits, 4 walks, 4 earned runs (loss)
The Red Sox could easily end up at 0-6 while the Yankees march into town tomorrow. Things aren’t going exactly as we expected, are they?
Here is the head-to-head data for today’s game:
Marco Scutaro in particular has hit Carmona very well in a number of plate appearances. It would be nice to see some offense from the bottom of the order.
It’s just about game time.
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