Starting this Friday night, the Red Sox face their most challenging opponent since the tumultuous 7/31 trading deadline, as they march into Chicago’s South Side to take on Crazy Ozzie Guillen’s Pale Hose in a 4 game series.

This is the first time these teams have faced off in 2008, and the most meaningful series they’ve had in quite a while. How do these two squads match up? Let’s break it down position-by-position.

Starter, Game 1
BOS: Jon Lester
CHI: Mark Buehrle

Buehrle (a.k.a. Supreme Eater of Innings) is coming off of rough start against Kansas City. His fastball is hovering around the 84-88 MPH range right now, and he may be finally showing signs of fatigue from throwing nearly 1,800 innings before his 30th birthday. Lester has been rolling since late April, and looks to continue his outstanding season powered by his improvement in command and a revamped cut fastball.

Advantage: Boston

Starter, Game 2
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
CHI: Jose Contreras

In Dice-K’s last start against Oakland, he went back to basics. We’ve all hears about his legendary pitch arsenal, and how Jason Varitek quipped that he needed all 10 fingers to call Matsuzaka. Well, 88% of his 103 pitches against the A’s were either fastballs or sliders. And it worked out wonderfully, leading to 8 strikeouts and only 2 walks. Admittedly, he might have to change his approach against the much tougher Chicago lineup.

Advantage: Boston

Starter, Game 3
BOS: Clay Buchholz
CHI: Gavin Floyd

A few days ago, I mentioned that Clay Buchholz was suffering from both bad luck and command issues. One of these can be expected to reverse over time. The other? Who knows. What I can tell you is that Gavin Floyd is not quite as good as his 2008 numbers might have you think, as the difference between his FIP and ERA is a staggering 1.32, and he has allowed 69 baserunners in his last 45 innings pitched.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Starter, Game 4
BOS: Josh Beckett
CHI: John Danks

Danks is having a breakthrough season and is coming off of a nice start against the Tigers. Beckett is also on the wake of a decent start, and despite all of the talk-radio hand wringing he is carrying a FIP of 3.38. In his last start, 1/3 of his pitches were curveballs. If both of these guys are on, this will be an interesting matchup.

Slight Advantage: Boston

Infield
BOS: Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie
CHI: Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, Juan Uribe, Orlando Cabrera

It’s tough to properly gauge this matchup without knowing Youkilis’ status after injuring his hand last night. The official word is “day-to-day”, and Sean Casey would play if Kevin can’t. Either way, Boston has the advantage at 1B over the lifeless Konerko. It’s just a question of how wide the gap is. We’ll take the team’s explanation at face value and assume Youkilis plays.

Ramirez is the Rookie of the Year candidate you haven’t heard about. He’s old for a rookie, but the alleged 26-year-old is hitting .311/.330./478 while playing solid defense at second base. Pedroia continues to be one of the best players in baseball since mid-June, hitting .399/.439/.568 in his last 199 plate appearances. Juan Uribe is filling in for Joe Crede, who is at least a week from returning to the lineup. Mike Lowell looks like he should be sitting right now, as he is visibly hobbled and has hit .171/.222/.211 in his last 81 PAs.

In the event that Lowell can’t play, you’d see Jed Lowrie move over and Alex Cora playing SS. Jed Lowrie vs Orlando Cabrera is a very interesting comparison, as it pits offense against defense. Lowrie’s gap power has New Englanders hoping they never have to see Julio Lugo start another game in Red Sox uniform, while at the same time bemoaning Theo Epstein for not resigning the slick-fielding Cabrera after 2004.

Advantage: Boston

Outfield
BOS: Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Coco Crisp, Brian Giles?
CHI: Carlos Quentin, Nick Swisher, Jermaine Dye, Ken Griffey Jr.
Jason Bay’s praises have been sung by many a minstrel, but Carlos Quentin is having just a phenomenal year in the American League, helping to dispel the notion that every National League player will automatically struggle after changing leagues. Both center fielders have been somewhat disappointing offensively this season. Ellsbury at least will cover a large amount of real estate in CF, but Swisher is clearly the more productive hitter (even when both players are playing to their potential). Jermaine Dye is a guy who has amazed me over the past few years. His shin bones are as frail as those from Barbaro’s rotting corpse, and yet the guy crushes the ball season after season. Despite the Red Sox outfield actually earning 1 more Win Share in total (46 vs 45), the run scoring potential of the White Sox outfield cannot be denied here.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Catcher
BOS: Jason Varitek
CHI: A.J. Pierzynski

I’ll factor out pitch-calling abilities here, since those skills manifest themselves in the performance of the pitchers. Jason has shown a little more offensive prowess lately, hitting .262/.380/.405 in his last 50 plate appearances. Still he’s one of the last guys you’d want to see at the plate in a critical situation, whereas A.J. can handle the stick just fine.

Advantage: Chicago

Designated Hitter
BOS: David Ortiz
CHI: Jim Thome

Jim Thome at 37 years young is sporting a nifty slugging percentage of .517, which is actually his lowest in a full season in the past 15 years. Thome being on the decline is obvious and expected…but let’s now acknowledge the elephant in the corner. David Ortiz, who has the classic frame of the fearsome but short-lived extra large power hitter, is hitting .250/.327/.354 since returning from injury. His wrist issues are still affecting his swing, and he has seen his power numbers fall off the table in 2008. In their current states, Thome is the more productive hitter.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

Bullpen
BOS: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, David Aardsma, Javier Lopez, Mike Timlin
CHI: Bobby Jenks, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Boone Logan, Scott Linebrink

While Boston has a palpable advantage at the closer slot with Papelbon, Chicago’s set-up tandem of Dotel and Thornton is among the best in the game. Overall, the Red Sox bullpen has been relatively decent, with a 3.64 ERA and 7.73 K/9, but Chicago has the advantage with a 3.45 bullpen ERA and 8.3 K/9. To further the point, much of Boston’s bullpen value is tied up in Papelbon, whereas Chicago’s late-inning excellence is more evenly distributed between a group of four pitchers.

Slight Advantage: Chicago

OVERALL: A slight advantage goes to Boston, thanks mostly to a favorable matchup of starting pitchers and a clear advantage in the infield positions. A Chicago home-field advantage tilts the matchup to more even ground.

This should be a fun series, and it’s one that currently deserves more national press than a Red Sox / Yankees series would get right now.

Once again, the greatest rivalry in American sports will unfold on the field.  Maybe it’s just me, but there seems to be an unusual air of indifference surrounding these games.  It could be the circumstances: here we are in late July, and the AL East is not the 2-team show we have grown accustomed to in the past decade.

Playoff odds be damned, each of baseball’s two richest teams could easily find themselves sitting out this October.  So, while this weekend’s series appears to have less national fanfare and sensationalism than usual, it is ironically the most important stretch of games these two teams have played against each other in quite some time.

Let’s look at tonight’s starters:

Josh Beckett
What we’ve seen from #19 in 2008 is a season somewhere in between his Cy Young caliber 2007 and his replacement level performance in 2006.  He’s relying almost exclusively on his fastball and 90 MPH changeup to retire hitters, and there have been occasional problems as a result of this.

The most frustrating thing about Josh’s outings: every fan watching him suddenly becomes a pitching coach.  “Throw the curveball, Josh!  It’s that easy, just throw more curveballs!  Why won’t Varitek call for the curveball?!! IF ONLY HE WOULD THROW MORE CURVEBALLS, HE WOULD WIN THIRTY GAMES!!  WHY DOESN’T HE REALIZE THAT??!”  Sadly, if it were really that easy, I’m sure he’d be doing it.  Nobody really knows why Josh has thrown fewer curveballs this season.

Anyway, he is in the midst of a tough patch. In his last 4 starts, Beckett has only struck out 16 hitters in 26 innings (to go along with a 4.85 ERA).

Joba Chamberlain
The Round-Skulled One is coming off of a strong start against Oakland.  As a starter, Joba has been impressive in most areas. His fastball and slider are still quite strong even when Chamberlain throws 5+ innings,  as evidenced by his 10.2 K/9 as a starter.  His one weakness has been the occasional lack of control (he averages 4.2 walks per 9 innings), and he had some difficulty with this in his one start against Boston earlier this month.  He has yet to throw more than 6.2 innings in a single outing.

Boston Offense
As you are probably aware, David Ortiz will make his long awaited return the the Red Sox lineup tonight, a huge boost to a team that is already 2nd in the league in runs scored.

On the flipside, Manny Ramirez sat out Wednesday’s game with a sore knee, and his status for tonight is unknown.  There are no shortage of skeptics of the veracity of Manny’s knee issues.  I’m hoping Wednesday was just a ploy for Manny to get an extra day off, and he’ll be 100% and ready to go tonight.  Everyone else in the lineup is pretty much healthy and ready to go.

New York Offense
With Jorge Posada’s injury, the Yankees will see more at bats from the likes of Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, and Chad Moeller.  This three-headed monster might add value with the glove in certain areas, but is a sizable downgrade at the plate.   Left-fielder Brett Gardener has been a quivering mass of offensive ineptitude this season (.161/.238/.179), resulting in the awkward backtracking of “Free Brett” mantras from New Haven to Atlantic City.

On the plus side for NY, Robinson Cano has been turning it around, and is looking more like the guy we’ve seen at the plate in the past two seasons.  The flashy infielder is hitting .358/.382/.537 in his last 33 games.  A-Rod, despite his unusual taste in trim, is still putting up numbers like one would expect from the best all-around player in the league.

Prediction:
An unexpected slug-fest.  I’ll decline to pick a winner, but I will say that each team in Game 1 will score more than 6 runs.   Boston’s patient bats will give Joba trouble, and Beckett will leave one or two fastballs in places where they shouldn’t be.

Casey Kelly, the high school shortstop/pitcher drafted in the first round by Boston in June, has signed and will report to the rookie squad in the Gulf Coast League.  The interesting portion of this story, and something that I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed before with a draft pick of this stature, is that the team still isn’t sure if he will ultimately become a pitcher or hitter.

The situation is this: Kelly wants to be a shortstop. The Red Sox think he should become a pitcher. Apparently, some sort of compromise has been reached, and Kelly will head to Florida as a shortstop for the GCL team, and will also play SS in the fall instructional league. However, the team still plans on having Kelly toe the rubber at some point in the future:

“Pitching we will expose Casey to at the right time, in the right place, and in the right environment,” said Epstein, adding that Kelly’s pitching would not necessarily interrupt his development at shortstop.

When it comes to player development, Theo’s minor league instructional staff have earned our trust with some impressive results over the past few years. However, this arrangement still makes me a tad uneasy. Frankly, I don’t understand how playing full time SS will not delay this kid’s development as a pitcher.

Perhaps this compromise was needed to sign him, in which case, you gotta do what you gotta do.

______________________________________

That thud you heard last night was David Ortiz hitting a line drive HR in a sold-out McCoy Stadium.

Amazingly, the Red Sox offense stepped up in his absence and increased production (.280/.353./.411 with Ortiz, .285/.361/.466 without), mostly thanks to guys named Drew and Pedroia, but it will still be nice to see him in the batters box in a week or two.

Last night’s drubbing of the Minnesota Twins was a much-needed break from the seemingly endless stream of 1-run games this team has endured recently. The therapeutic vitcory featured many oddities:

• Julio Lugo thwarting the well known but rarely understood infield fly rule, a play that made the ghost of George Wright tip his vintage Reds cap. (Sox fans, if you watched this play and didn’t feel a little more appreciation for Lugo, then I just don’t know what to say to you…)
• The worst hitter in modern MLB history hitting yet another home run.
• The umpires actually collaborating and admitting they were wrong after botching a centerfield catch all (something they failed to do when the Sox were playing in The Bronx last weekend).
• Twins manager Ron Gardenire exploding on two separate occasions, sort of like the Death Star.

In specific terms, this game satisfied the shit out of me. Today’s off-day is going to feel like the Friday after Thanksgiving, our bodies sluggish after becoming engorged with slaughtered animal carcasses. (My apologies to our vegan readers. Substitute “carcasses” with “butter-nut squash” in that last analogy).

After a sweep of the surprising Twins, let’s take a quick look at the current postseason odds, as seen by the two major sources for this type of projection.

Baseball Prospectus:

Tampa Bay: 91.72 %
Boston: 86.11 %
Chicago: 82.92 %
Anaheim: 59.31 %
Oakland: 39.63 %
New York: 12.96 %
Detroit: 11.61 %

Cool Standings

Chicago 80.6 %
Tampa Bay 73.4 %
Boston 72.1 %
Anaheim 60.7 %
Oakland 43.6 %
Minnesota 25.3 %
New York 18 %
Texas 10.1 %

Some clarification: the Baseball Prospectus odds factor in their 2008 PECOTA projections, while Cool Standings does not take player projections into account.

My take on a few items here:

The Oakland A’s essentially punted their season away when they traded their ace and another dependable starter for a handful of B-level prospects. It wasn’t necessarily a bad trade from my point of view, but it certainly isn’t going to help them make the playoffs this season. I think the timing was a little surprising, given the fact that the A’s were still very much “in it” when Billy Beane pulled the trigger. It will be interesting to see what happens with Rich Harden. I don’t think Beane is depraved enough to knowingly trade away a damaged player, but the deal leads me to believe that he didn’t have much confidence in Harden’s ability to stay healthy throughout 2008.

These odds do not take into account financial muscle or minor league trade bait, in which case you’d have to put a premium on the Yankees’ postseason odds. They will be actively trying to improve their team before July 31st, and they have the resources to do this.

By that same token, I think one would have to tack on a percentage point or two to Boston’s postseason odds. There is very little chance that Tampa Bay will trade for someone with a hefty contract (Matt Holliday, ect…), while the Red Sox don’t mind burning some dough to reach the ultimate prize.

Considering this, and picking a somewhat arbitrary number out of the air, I would put the Sox’ postseason chances at 85% at the moment.

“Who’s that creepy guy lurking in the corner?”

“Oh, just a friend of mine.”

“Is that…Matt Belisle! OHMIGOD!”

Maybe in Cincinnati. The rest of the country has little reason to pay attention to a twenty-eight-year-old fighting for a spot in the Reds’ rotation. His triple crown numbers were underwhelming: 8-9, 5.32 ERA, 125 Ks, 177 IP. There are sexier candidates named Bailey and Cueto. Hell, nobody in Cincy gets ink unless Dusty is drooling his latest idiotic misconceptions.

Strangely, Belisle has popped up a lot recently. His name has been near the top of random stat sorts that distract me from my actual work. He is the most illustrative part of this article at Baseball Analysts. My dreams are haunted by Marge Schott whispering “Belisle…Belisle” and I wake up in cold sweats. I can’t escape him!

He was almost exactly league average in K% (16.21) and GB% (41.75) and FB% (36.3) in 2007. The one thing he did well was not walking people (2.18 BB/9). Actually, he was really good at not walking people. That rate was 18th in baseball last year, between two guys named Dan Haren and Johan Santana. If he was so average to slightly above, why was his ERA+ only 88?

According to Rich Lederer, he is part of the group of pitchers that “live on the edge with very little margin for error.” I contend that on that edge he was hurt by bad luck more than the rest of that group, which includes guys like Mark Buehrle, Tom Gorzellany and Josh Towers.

Two things broke against him:

• Only Kip Wells had a greater negative difference in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and ERA, indicating he was significantly hurt by poor defense.

• He gave up too many dingers, but Great American Ballpark had something to do with that. In 2007, he allowed 17 at home and 9 on the road in only 7 fewer innings.

GAB has been among the top three in Home Run Park Factor since its opening. That undoubtedly has something to do with the Reds’ crappy staffs, but we’re knee deep in a chicken-and-egg problem now. My guess: it’s not kosher. Reds pitchers were bad, but they were also hurt by the park. According to all his rate stats, Belisle isn’t bad, he’s average, and his tendency to give up bombs at home can be attributed to park effects, at least in part.

I harbor no delusions. Belisle will be never be a top tier pitcher, but he can and will contribute. Don’t forget, to be average you have to beat half the guys out there. Get him out of Cincy or in front of a good defense and he’ll thrive.

I love you: Fangraphs and The Hardball Times

I think New Year’s Eve used to be a big deal. Actually, I can nail it down: December 31st, 1999 was the last time I cared. Really, it’s just an excuse to drink without abandon, why do you need a “holiday” for that?

Some of my associates went to a trendy lounge hosting a “four hour open bar!” for an exorbitant amount of cash. Been there. It’s never a good idea. You enter with one thing on your mind: must…get…money’s…worth. My New Year’s plans usually involve an event, but only one I’d do any other day of the year: concert, party, shooting craps ‘til dawn in a basement in Old San Juan. Feliz año nuevo, amigos!

The hot stove has become a tepid bath, and I’m turning my sights forward. We’re crankin’ up the flux capacitor and setting the controls for the heart of the sun. The best GMs are not only good at keeping a team competitive short-term, but considering today’s resources to set up the future of the club. This was originally going to be a five-year look, but the endless possibility of changes twirled around and left me crying in a puddle of tear-soaked stat sheets.

Ladies and gentleman, I present your 2010 Red Sox. As usual, this is an exercise involving many assumptions, half-truths and voodoo economics. Hopefully it will provide some perspective; at the very least it should make you happy.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Dustin Pedroia
DH David Ortiz
RF Alex Rios
1B Lars Anderson
LF J.D. Drew
3B Mike Lowell
SS Julio Lugo
C Taylor Teagarden

Notable omissions include Youkilis, Kevin; Varitek, Jason and Ramirez, Manny. The latter has a $20m team option, money that will be better spent elsewhere. Alex Rios is sitting at 4+ years of service time today, making his free agency possible after 2009. Of course, I’m notorious for unrequited crushes on Toronto outfielders (I still love you, Vernon), so Matt Holliday may turn out to be a better option. He’d fill the Ramirez void more completely. Rios’ first four years are frighteningly similar to Coco Crisp’s, another reason to pause. This list is a mixed bag of stars and role players, but contains no one with much hope of replacing the production of Ramirez. I’m waiting for Holliday to prove himself away from Coors and Rios’ power numbers to continue up in 2008. I chose Rios for this exercise because his cost will be lower than the runner-up MVP. The problem with the high upside outfielders in the system (Kalish, Reddick) is their wrong-handedness. Righty Jason Place could be the answer if he cuts out the Francoeur impression, but his 39/13 K/BB in the Hawaiian Winter League is worrisome.

We’ll welcome Texas farmhand Taylor Teagarden with the sad departure of Youkilis, who will become expendable if Anderson tears through Lancaster and Portland in 2008. Youk would be a nice fit in Texas, who will say goodbye to Hank Blaylock after this season and have Chris Davis a few years away. Of course, if the Rangers would rather send us Saltalamacchia, I’d oblige. Among the triumvirate of Texas catchers, I’m less enamored with Max Ramirez’s serious defensive flaws. Teagarden is known as a talented game caller and thrower with offensive questions. Ligament replacement surgery in 2006 hasn’t affected his defense, and in fact he came back stronger at the plate. Last year he posted a 1.012 OPS splitting time in the Cal (A+) and Texas (AA) leagues. You should know to take California League stats with a grain of salt. Keeping Varitek in the fold to coach would be great, ideally he’d be extended after 2008 and phased out of the starting job in 2010. I’d give him the same recurring option deal Wakefield has at twice the salary ($8m) without a second thought.

A lot of things have to go right for this pipe dream to come true, but its not completely unreasonable. Keep an eye on Anderson and Teagarden, with Will Middlebrooks and Oscar Tejeda in mind for the left side post-Lugo/Lowell. Coming next week, the 2010 pitching staff.

Mark me down as cautiously optimistic. I won’t fate my first born to be named “Theo” for another year, or until Epstein spins a package not including Ellsbury and Buchholz for Danny Haren. I’m not ready to fall in love with the 2008 Red Sox, nor will I banish them to the depths of my consciousness until February. As other teams are fighting over Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse, we can sit back and shine our World Series Trophy, or whatever else you choose to shine. Give credit where it’s due, and the rockstar GM deserves the lion’s share. A great general manager is separated from the good ones by the ability to predict future markets, without the use of a tarot cards, a cauldron, or a dart board. It appears that is what Theo has done heading into 2008.

Pitching is becoming exponentially more expensive. A.J. Burnett’s $33 million until 2010 will be a bargain if he can stay healthy: Silva and Lohse might get double that in total dollars. The Royals look prophetic for locking Gil Meche up last year. In the interest of full disclosure, I was one (of many) vilifying Dayton Moore for that one. The luxury of staying out of the FA pitching market this year will give the Sox greater flexibility to go after difference makers in the future, and maybe they’ll get to 103.

The Lowell contract is interesting. Notice, I didn’t say “terrible” or “makes me want to vomit,” I think its somewhere between “concerning” and “fine.” As the recent past has indicated, giving contracts based on emotion generally turn out badly. If Theo had done what you idiots were pining for after 2004 and kept the team together, we’d have Johnny Damon in center and Billy Mueller at third until 2013. I do miss those towering foul balls though, Kev. Lowell and Varitek’s deals have undoubtedly had a certain flavor of hometown hero in the decision making process. Not disastrous, but a disturbing trend. The best GMs are stoics.

In his age 29 and 30 seasons (2003 and 2004) Lowell put up career high OPS+ numbers of 128 and 127. Then came his much-publicized cliff dive: 77 in 2005. His first season in Boston was 104 and finally, 124 in 2007. So, next year he’ll be 34 and paid like he was 29. If he experiences any decline from career highs over the next three he’ll be grossly overpaid. I just don’t see him outperforming his 90th percentile PECOTA, as he did in 2007, for the next three years. At the same time, what matters most is the total dollars, and for Lowell they aren’t huge. For 2008, he is the best option, as Varitek was in 05.

One big, high-upside arm would complete the bullpen, and Kerry Wood looks like he’s willing to accept a one-year deal. He’s hardly pitched at all in the last three years, with 24.2 IP in 2007, his first from the bullpen. He averaged almost a K/IP and if he can stay healthy he will be a dominant reliever in a market full of former closers. Clearly a big if, but the upside outweighs the risk. I don’t want any part of Scott Linebrink, who has thrown 70+ innings for 5 consecutive seasons. His last two seasons have been fairly pedestrian (1.21, 1.32 WHIP) and heading into his 31st birthday he’s not a guy I’d target for anything but a decline. Other guys (Dotel, Gagne) are only looking at jobs as closers, and the depths of the barrel include Armando Benitez and LaTroy Hawkins. Please god, no. Overpay a bit for Wood on a one year deal and cross your fingers.

As a big proponent of the “throw a ton of shit against the wall and see what sticks” method of bullpen construction, this facet of the team concerns me. There isn’t room for error. Manny Delcarmen is capable of becoming the 8th inning crutch, but Craig Hansen or Justin Masterson had better make some strides to spread the work around. Doomsday scenario: Julian Tavarez and Javier Lopez in high leverage spots in August, with MDC/Oki on the shelf from overuse.

I’d like to see Theo bluff to the river with his centerfield cards, unless one is part of a deal for an elite arm. The market is flooded with talent in center. With Kielty and Hinske free agents, the bench is a blank slate that could be filled by whoever loses the job. One of our undervalued commodities shouldn’t be given away for a spare part, especially in a market with lots of superior talent. This team’s needs are so few, allowing Ellsbury a chance to mature at the ML level and Coco a season to produce offensively would likely increase their net value and one can be moved for a real need in 2009: starting pitching. Present value on these two is low and pitching is expensive now, so the prudent option is to wait. Finding each 350 ABs shouldn’t be too difficult.

Thanks Theo, you’ve set this team up beautifully. If it was an accident, you’re very lucky. If it was skill, you’ve turned the economic advantages of the Red Sox into an exponentially greater benefit; something your predecessors were unable to do.

Well, here we are again.

BOS-NYY, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. That old couple who MLB commissions to write the schedule every year (I’m still not sure if they really exist, or are just an urban legend), they seem to enjoy the rivalry more than we do. Both teams are likely to make the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of this series. Boston is basically a postseason lock, while New York would need to have a bad 2-week span to lose out to Detroit, and that doesn’t seem likely based on their recent performance.

Winning the division? It’s a neat little bragging right, and will give a team a minor scheduling advantage in the Division Series. However, as we’ve seen time and time again, the wildcard winners are in essentially the same position to reach the World Series as the division winner. In other words: this is a big series, but maybe not as big as we might think, in the grand scheme of things. Taking it a step further, this series is much bigger for New York than it is for the Red Sox.

Let’s take a look at the pitching matchup:

Tonight: Game 1
Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12, 4.44) vs Andy Pettitte (13-8, 3.78)
Yikes. If you are a Sox fan, it is impossible to not dread this pitching matchup. In his last 5 starts, Matsuzaka has an ERA of nearly 10. Is there something physically wrong with him? Apparently not, as he is cleared to pitch tonight. Essentially, his command has been for shit. If the Sox are to avoid embarrassment in this game, he will need to straighten himself out. Edge NY.

Saturday: Game 2
Josh Beckett (18-6, 3.27) vs Chien-Ming Wang (18-6, 3.69)
The aces square off in a battle of contrasting pitching styles. You’ll often hear fans claim “I don’t care about the Cy Young Award, it doesn’t matter, why do you care so much, blah blah I’m superior to you blah blah you lowly dog.” Well, I think that’s bullshit. I want Josh Beckett to win the Cy Young award. And notching win #19 on national television against the Yankees will all but clinch it for the voters. Edge Boston.

Sunday: Game 3
Curt Schilling (8-7, 3.93) vs Roger Clemens (6-6, 4.45)
An interesting matchup, to say the least. Clemens hasn’t pitched in 2 weeks since getting lit up by Seattle, and I can guarantee you that the crowd won’t be nearly as civil to him as his last trip to Fenway a few years ago. He has to be considered a question mark right now, especially considering this is the first time IN HIS CAREER he’s had elbow problems. Schilling, noticeably lacking a few MPH on his fastball, has been remarkably steady recently. This includes a start at Yankee Stadium on 8/30. He has had a Quality Start in each of his last 4 outings. Edge Boston.

The Red Sox are 3-3 at Yankee Stadium this year.

Depending on what happens between Mike Mussina and Justin Verlander tonight, the Boston Red Sox will enter Yankee Stadium tomorrow either 7 or 8 games ahead of New York in the AL East race. This extra cushion could prove invaluable, as New York is sending their three “good” starters to the hill in this series. Let’s take a look at each pitching matchup:

Tuesday: Daisuke Matsuzaka (170 IP, 3.76 ERA, 9.11 K/9) vs Andy Pettitte (173 IP, 3.69 ERA, 5.93 K/9

On paper, the best pitching matchup the series (although not the most interesting one). Dice-K is seemingly a better pitcher now than he was in April/May, when the Yankees knocked him around a bit for 10 runs in 2 starts. Since the end of May, Daisuke has a 2.97 ERA over 97.1 innings. Andy Pettitte has been on a tear himself, with 5 wins and a 2.06 ERA in August. However, he has had some trouble with Boston, giving up a .323 batting average to the Sox in 5 games this season. It’s close, but the home field advantage tilts the odds in the direction of the lefty.

Advantage: Pettitte

Wednesday: Josh Beckett (160 IP, 3.21 ERA, 8.55 K/9) vs Roger Clemens (83 IP, 4.34 ERA, 6.51 K/9)

This will be the big ticket of the series, as the two Texan fireballers lock horns in a battle of generations. Despite the glitz and glamor of this matchup, it’s heavily in Beckett’s favor. Clemens averages only 5+ innings per start, and was hit hard in his last start against Detroit. He’ll have the adrenaline going, in his first start against the Sox since Game Seven on the 2003 ALCS…

Advantage: Beckett

Thursday: Curt Schilling (118.3 IP, 4.11 ERA, 6.27 K/9) vs Chien-Ming Wang (159.3 IP, 3.95 ERA, 4.58 K/9)

Curt, who has been wildly inconsistent this season, hasn’t had very much success against New York at all, being tagged for 29 hits and a 7.00 ERA in 18 innings of work. Wang has been inconsistent recently, with a 5.40 ERA in his last 7 starts, although he did spin a gem in his last outing.

Advantage: Wang

Of course, the overall offensive matchup is clearly in favor of the Yankees, who average about 6 runs per game, by far the best rate in baseball (the Sox are third in the AL, with 5.33 runs per game). Both teams have relatively strong bullpens, but the edge there goes to Boston for their depth.

As you can see, the two teams match up very well. It always seems to work out that way, doesn’t it?

For all intents and purposes, the playoffs begin Tuesday night.

As the July 31st trading deadline looms, the talk of the region has centered around the Red Sox contemplating a deal for slugging White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye, in exchange for Wily Mo Pena and a young pitcher to be determined.  Boston is apparently searching for the consistent right-handed power bat that they thought they were getting when they shipped Bronson Arroyo off to Cincinnati for the much-maligned Wily Mo Pena.

There are a few questions we should ask ourselves before even looking at the possible trade-bait going to Chicago:

Q: Are we sure that Dye will be a significant upgrade over Wily Mo down the stretch?
A: Yes, as sure as we can be.  After starting out slow, Dye is mashing right now, hitting .295/.377/.689 since the All-Star break.  This is coming after a season where he was arguably the best hitter in the league.  Jermaine Dye is what Wily Mo hopes to become in 3 years.

Q: Would Dye be a long-term acquisition, or a 2-month rental?
A: He’d be a rental.  With a (hopefully) healthier Ortiz in 2008, and two high-priced sluggers at both corner OF positions, there just isn’t any room for the big guy.  The Red Sox would just parlay the rental into some draft day compensation in June (a system that they have been very adept at working in recent years).

Q: Well then, where would he play this year?
A: Here is the tough part.  My guess is, David Ortiz needs some time off.  I’m not sure how much time he needs, as the  Sox are naturally keeping that quiet.  But, Dye would get some time at DH, he would play RF against left-handed pitchers, and he might even play some LF to let Manny rest his legs.  I’d guess he’d start in roughly half of the remaining games on the schedule, in addition to being the first bat off the bench, and would get something like 20 plate appearances per week.

That being said, what does Chicago want? The word on the street is they were asking for one of Justin Masterson (sound familiar?) or Manny Delcarmen.  Personally, I wouldn’t do either of those deals, and according to the usual sources, neither will the Red Sox.  The key here will be whether or not Chicago GM Kenny Williams is willing to reduce his offer a bit and accept a pitcher with a slightly lower ceiling.

Stay tuned…

It’s almost a certainty: Mike Lowell will not be on this team next year.

Why, you ask? Because he will be severely overvalued in the free agent market, as he is having a terrific season at a relatively old age. The Red Sox brass will (hopefully) recognize this, let a mid-market team overpay for Lowell, and look for an alternative at the hot corner in 2008.

While the Red Sox are currently stuck in what Little Carmine of The Sopranos might describe as “a stagmire”, there has been some buzz in the background regarding the future of third base at Fenway. Most of this buzz stems from the recent media volley between Scott Boras and Yankees GM Brian Cashman, as it appears that the best player in baseball will hit the free agent market this winter.

If I were to venture a guess as to the annual salary Alex Rodriguez would command on the market in 2008, I’d say roughly $30 million, for roughly 6 years. I’d also estimate that there are ten teams in Major League Baseball that would be willing and able to pay this type of money for one player. In no particular order: the Yankees, the Mets, Boston, Anaheim, The Cubs, The White Sox, Philadelphia, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Baltimore. There could always be a surprise suitor, a Houston or a San Francisco could always throw their hat in the ring, but those aforementioned ten teams are baseball’s financial “heavy hitters”.

We can cross the Mets off of this list; they are fortunate enough to have young superstars at both 3B and SS. The Dodgers will likely try to bring prospect Andy LaRoche along at 3B and spend the big money in their outfield; I’ll remove them as well.

That leaves us with eight teams realistically in the running for this guy. In other words, we need to explore other opportunities here, because the odds of A-Rod playing for another team besides Boston are quite high (as much as I’d love to see him here).

Let’s take a look at some other post-Lowell alternatives at third base for 2008 and beyond:

Kevin Youkilis:

Pro: The only inside solution to the hole, and most certainly the cheapest option. Kevin’s bat plays much better at 3B than 1B, and his defense, while not on par with Lowell, is adequate. If Youkilis were moved across the diamond, the Sox could then concentrate on finding a heavy-hitting first baseman, which might be an easier task.

Con: He’s a notorious fast-starter and quick fader, a trait shared with his buddy, Mr. Lowell. We don’t really know how his defense and mobility will hold up as he ages, since he is already somewhat slow and immobile at 28. He doesn’t have the HR power the Sox would optimally like to see at this position.

Miguel Cabrera:

Pro: He’s a superstar, one of the best hitters in baseball and still improving, and is only 24 years old. He can also play LF (we’ll be needing one of those after 2008). Florida might not want to deal with his arbitration raises going forward, and could pull the trigger for the right package. He doesn’t become a free agent until 2010.

Con: He’s heavy, and getting bigger each year. Not a very good defender at 3B, most likely a corner OF long-term. Comes with a bit of a negative off-field reputation. Any deal would probably need to include Clay Buchholz and/or Jacoby Ellsbury, and Boston will have a difficult time parting with them, as they could both be key players as early as 2008.

Troy Glaus

Pro: Tremendous power and plate discipline. Injury woes appear to be a thing of the past. Can play SS in a pinch. Toronto’s farm system is fairly barren, and they may be willing to deal, depending on the performance of the team in the next month.

Con: Not a great defender. His “swing for the fences” style doesn’t always go over well at Fenway Park. Turning 31 next month; those knees may have more difficulty carrying his huge frame at 3B in the future.

These are just 3 options, and there are more to discuss (and more holes to plug). We’ll save those for another day, when the picture becomes clearer.

Hope springs eternal and all that. Today, for the 106th time, a Boston Americans spinner hurls the orb towards an opposing batsman, who stands at the dish with murderous intent in his eye, no doubt. In that memorable 01 season, the American’s didn’t even start their best pitcher, as 25-year-old rookie Win Kellum (20 career wins, 2 with Boston) got the nod over Denton Young against the Baltimore Orioles (the future New York Yankees).

The Orioles got the best of the Americans on that day, and actually swept the opening series, taking the second game from Cy Young.

What I’m saying is that opening day has evolved from something where a oldish (especially for the turn of the century) rookie would get the start to an event that just feels different than other games. Opening Day has a habit of sticking out in your head, even as other games kinda run together…I might not remember who wins the Boston Marathon every year (a Kenyan), but I almost always remember the start from Hopkington.

Here are my five most memorable (not favorite really, but most memorable) Red Sox Opening Days.
5. 2000 Boston Beats Seattle, Scores No More Runs the Rest of The Year
See number 1 on this list, as Pedro pitched the same, it was at the same time and the result was the same. The only difference was it was in Seattle and not Oakland.

I remember this game because I thought maybe Sports Illustrated got one right. They picked the Red Sox to win the World Series that year after two years of making it to the playoffs, and losing to a better team. As it turned out, the only Red Sox that hit all summer were Nomar Garciaparra and Carl Everett and they finished 12th in the American League in runs scored.

4. 1995 No Clemens, Sox Beat the Twins 9-0 at Fenway
The strike was over, but there was still a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Fenway still had 33,000 people in the stands for the late-April matchup.

Even though this amounted to a late Spring Training start, Roger Clemens was hurt, and the Sox were coming off a crappy 1994 (everyone panic!!!) the opener of the 1995 season was a harbinger of things to come…it kicked off a season that insured that the Boston didn’t really need to be saved from the strike (their attendance was actually higher in 95 than 94). As for the game itself, the Sox touched Scott Erickson for two runs, and then notched seven runs off Carl Willis and Vince Horseman. Aaron Sele was only out there for five innings and 65 pitches, but didn’t allow a run (obviously) and only allowed two baserunners…one hit and one walk.

3. 2003 Closer By Committee Deemed Failure
The great part about this game was that my girlfriend (who now would never, ever do this…warrants mentioning) would watch baseball with me but flip back and forth between something she had more interest in. So we almost missed the last part of this game because she was slow getting over from American Idol.

As it turns out, the ban of my popular culture existence would have been a welcome change to the result of this match against the Devil Rays, as a Pedro start was wasted by Alan Embree and Chad Fox giving up five runs in the bottom of the ninth. A game that should have been won 4-1 was instead lost 6-4. Most of the damage was done by Embree, giving up 3 of the runs without recording an out, with Fox getting two outs, walking Marlon Anderson (as he was prone to do) and giving up a three run walkoff to Carl Crawford. Of course, the failing wasn’t Embree’s or Fox’s, it was the matchup bullpen ideology. The next season, the Red Sox won the World Series using a modified version of same.

2. 1989 Sox Lose 5-4 to the Orioles in 11 innings
This was the first OD I was permitted to watch. I was 8 years old, and my mom let me stay home from second grade, mostly because I nagged the hell out of her until she said yes. I was excited because I was too young to understand just how badly the A’s beat the Sox in the last ALCS, and I just knew that the Sox would extract their vengeance on a team that lost 21 games to open the season the year before.

The most memorable about this game for me (other than it popping my cherry) was that with runners on the corners (I looked it up, Randy Milligan on first, Mickey Tettleton on third), Joe Morgan moved Ellis Burks to left center, Dwight Evans to right center, and Mike Greenwell to right behind second base (in the infield). And then took out groundballer Bob Stanley and put in Mike Smithson. Craig Worthington singled sharply to centerfield, Tettleton walked home, and the Red Sox dropped their first four games and essentially sleep walked through the season.

1. 1998 Pedro Makes His Red Sox Debut, wins 2-0.
Despite being now 17 years old, there was no way I could have watched this one. The game started at 10:30pm over here on the East Coast, so I had to set the VCR, and preyed no one talked about the game at school the next day. Luckly, all my school yard chums were in the same predicament. It was actually kind of funny…we were all baseball freaks and no one dared mention Opening Day.

The next day, the school was a-buzz with how Pedro Martinez shut down the Oakland offense. The game itself was fairly uninspiring, if you like hitting, but he notched 11 strikeouts in his 7 innings. He actually had a perfect game going until the 4th when Ben Grieve finally broke through with a single with two outs. The A’s pitcher was Tom Candiotti, starting in his 67th MLB season.

We give you the Gregg Easterbrook ironically named “100% Incorrect or Your Money Back” guarantee for our predictions.
Zach:
AL East Division Winner: Boston Red Sox
AL Central Division Winner: Cleveland Indians
AL West Division Winner: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wildcard: Toronto Blue Jays
NL East Division Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central Division Winner: Chicago Cubs
NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wildcard: New York Mets
AL Champion: Boston Red Sox
NL Champion: New York Mets
World Series Champion: Boston Red Sox

AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
AL MVP: Vernon Wells
AL Rookie of the Year: Diasuke Matsuzaka
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Jhonny Peralta
AL Manager of the Year: Eric Wedge
AL First Manager Fired: Joe Torre

NL Cy Young: Chris Young
NL MVP: Jose Reyes
NL Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzki
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Randy Johnson
NL Manager of the Year: Ned Yost
NL First Manager Fired: Jerry Narron

Jimmy:
AL East Division Winner: New York
AL Central Division Winner: Detroit
AL West Division Winner: Anaheim
AL Wildcard: Boston
NL East Division Winner: Philly
NL Central Division Winner: Milwaukee
NL West Division Winner: LA
NL Wildcard: Cubs
AL Champion: Boston
NL Champion: Philly
World Series Champion: Philly

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL MVP: Manny Ramirez
AL Rookie of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Sammy Sosa
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington
AL First Manager Fired: Eric Wedge
NL Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano
NL MVP: Alfonso Soriano
NL Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzki
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Barry Bonds
NL Manager of the Year: Sweet Lou
NL First Manager Fired: Jerry Narron

Jeff:
AL East Division Winner: New York
AL Central Division Winner: Cleveland (in the Maple Street Press preview, I picked Minnesota. I changed my mind).
AL West Division Winner: Oakland
AL Wildcard: Boston
NL East Division Winner: New York
NL Central Division Winner: Milwaukee
NL West Division Winner: Los Angeles
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia
AL Champion: Cleveland
NL Champion: Los Angeles
World Series Champion: Cleveland

AL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Rookie of the Year: Alex Gordon
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Sammy Sosa
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington
AL First Manager Fired: Ozzie Guillen
NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Young (outfielder, not pitcher)
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Barry Bonds
NL Manager of the Year: Ned Yost
NL First Manager Fired: Clint Hurdle