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By Jimmy, 4/6/2011 3:21 pm

The Sox are facing Mitch Talbot, another right-hander with modest K and GB rates who likes to mix up his 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs.  While the Sox players haven’t seen much of Talbot, they’ve hit him well in the handful of times they’ve faced him, going .417/.533/.792  in 30 plate appearances.

Boston counters with Daisuke Matsuzaka.  We’re all familiar with the roller coaster events that are Dice-K outings, but note that these Cleveland players have generally struggled against Matsuzaka.

The Red Sox could lose 40 games in a row, and Heidi Watney’s pre-game lineup tweet would still make me smile involuntarily.

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By Jimmy, 4/5/2011 9:38 am

Here’s a quick rundown of the batter vs. pitcher data between Josh Beckett and Indians starter Josh Tomlin:

Tomlin, a 26-year-old right-hander, is in his second season after tossing only 73 innings in his rookie campaign.  Most of the Red Sox have yet to face him.  He’s not an overpowering pitcher; his fastball sits at around 89 MPH and he doesn’t get a ton of ground balls.  He seems like the type of pitcher who might provide a good warm-up for a few of Boston’s left-handed bats.

Josh Beckett, on the other hand, is very familiar with several of Cleveland’s regulars.  I’ll quickly point out that a large chunk of his appearances against Orlando Cabrera occurred during Beckett’s Florida days, and he simply hasn’t been that guy lately.  Alas, his appearances against Pronk, Choo, and Asdrubal are more recent.

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By Jimmy, 4/1/2011 3:40 pm

Well, here we are again.  The Boston area landscape still resembles some snow-covered industrial town in eastern Russia, but in other parts of the country, professional baseball games will be played.

I’ll post a very quick preview of the match-ups, while I try to figure out a way to watch the game on my computer without my boss noticing.

Game 1: Boston @ Texas

Red Sox hitters vs. C.J. Wilson:

Rangers hitters vs. Jon Lester:

Yikes.  As good as Jon Lester is, the middle of that Texas lineup has hit him quite well over the course of his career.  And C.J. Wilson, being a left-hander, is a huge thorn in Boston’s side (in addition to being a prick, apparently).

Pregame notes:

• It will be weird, and rather unfortunate, to see Adrian Beltre wearing the colors of the opposition.  His season here was really outstanding, and I don’t think enough people will remember it 10 years from now.
• Is it OK for me to start disliking Josh Hamilton now?  Or is that still considered un-American?  I’m thinking the “He’s a great story!!!!” honeymoon period ends after 3 years, right?
• Happy opening day.

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By Jimmy, 3/30/2011 5:58 pm

2010 Pythagorean Record: 78-84

Roster Analysis:

Despite having a few very good players entering their prime (Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, Ethier), this team will not be very good, due to a few large weaknesses in the lineup and the back of the rotation/bullpen. The Dodgers haven’t finished in last place in 19 years. They could very well contend for that dubious accomplishment in 2011.

Projected Record: 72-90

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By Jimmy,

As previously mentioned, Orioles manager Buck Showalter has been running his yap about beating the Red Sox and their $215 million payroll (sic). Can the Orioles back up their skipper’s bold words?

Orioles 2010 Pythagorean Record: 63-99

Roster Analysis:

The O’s management has very creatively improved the offense with guys who, while not superstars, should score a few more runs and make a few more plays than the dreck they had on the field last year. They’ll be hoping that their young, promising starters improve enough to ensure the pitching staff isn’t a complete abortion like it was last season. Personally, I think the 2009 Jeremy Guthrie (5+ ERA) is the guy you’ll be seeing if we assume luck-neutral environment. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and he’s not a ground ball pitcher. Frankly, he shouldn’t be that good.

While they should be a bit better, keep in mind that this was basically a 100-loss team in 2010. They brought in some interesting low-cost, past-their-prime players to fill gaps, but it would take a miracle for this team to even approach a .500 season, especially given their divisional opponents. They’ll win enough games to avoid being a complete embarrassment, but they’ll lose enough games to make Showalter look like a jackass.

Projected record: 74-88

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By Jimmy, 2/3/2011 10:05 am

Why "Inverted W"? Why not just call it "The M"? /seinfeld

2010 Pythagorean Record: 72-90
Run Scoring: 4.04 runs per game (14 out of 16)
Run Prevention: 4.58 runs per game (12 out of 16)

Coming into last season, a realistic goal for the 2010 Nationals was to not be the worst team in the major leagues.  With a little bit of help, they made it happen.  Despite clearing that lofty benchmark, the season was not without frustration, as young superstar pitcher Stephen Strasburg required Tommy John surgery after only 12 starts in the big leagues.

During this offseason, perhaps looking to fill some seats in lieu of Strasburg’s injury, the Nationals shocked the baseball world by signing free-agent outfielder Jayson Werth to a 7 year/$126 MM deal.  Just about everyone outside of DC (myself included) questioned why a team clearly in rebuilding mode would make such a move.

So, can the Nationals compete in the NL East with Strasburg a virtual non-factor in 2011?  I’ll save you the suspense; probably not.  Let’s look at the roster:

When the Nats let Adam Dunn leave via free agency, they washed away any net offensive potential added with the Werth signing. The end result is a lineup that isn’t very different from the 2010 version. Zimmerman is a true superstar and should get better as he enters his prime, and Ramos and Espinosa are both promising young players, but this is a crew that won’t be scoring many runs.

The view from the pitcher’s mound doesn’t get much better. Livan Hernandez is legendary for his rubber arm at this point, but 2010 was the first time in 5 years that he finished with an ERA under 4.50. Given his age and track record, a regression is almost a certainty. Marquis and Lannan are batting practice machines who would have trouble cracking most AAA rotations. Zimmerman has some potential, but he’s never pitched more than 134 innings in one season during his professional career. Tom Gorzelanny is probably the best healthy starting pitcher on the team right now.

The bullpen was Washington’s strength in 2010. They weren’t just good, they were terrific. After losing Matt Capps and Joel Peralta along with the likely regressions of guys like Clippard and Burnett, the relief corps should be just about average in 2011.

Best Case Scenario: Zimmerman provides MVP-caliber results, Jayson Werth hits around 40 home runs, Pudge Rodriguez retires and allows Wilson Ramos to become the full-time catcher. Stephen Strasburg returns at the end of the season and has a couple of dominant starts, restoring some hope. Nats finish a tad under .500.

Worst Case Scenario: Strasburg suffers a setback and does not sniff a pitcher’s mound in 2011. Jayson Werth shows signs of aging, giving the front office a terrifying sense of buyer’s remorse on that 7 year deal. Zimmerman regresses a bit, and the Nats lose over 100 games (again).

Conclusion: It’s all about the prospects, baby. Fans should keep an eye on top draft pick Bryce Harper, likely to start the season in High-A and already campaigning for a September call-up. After seeing what he did as a 17-year-old in junior college, he could be the real deal.

Projected record: 71-91

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By Jimmy, 1/11/2011 11:20 am

Managers should really adhere to the MLB uniform rules, like they did in the old days...wait, what?

2010 Record: 81-81
Run Scoring: 4.09 runs per game (11th out of 14)
Run Prevention: 3.86 runs per game (1st out of 14) 

The A’s 2nd place finish in the AL West last season was a tad unexpected, as the team’s young pitching staff managed to dominate the American League.  Under the tutelage of pitching coach Curt Young, the A’s rotation has seemingly perfected the art of inducing ground balls to a science, as they managed to prevent runs despite modest strikeout rates. 

As most of their key pitchers are cost-controlled and will be returning in 2011, the A’s spent the offseason finding creative ways to improve their glaring weakness: offense.  The team is finally rid of Eric Chavez after years of gauze-wrapped disappointment, and Rajai Davis will no longer be creating outs. 

While the offense should be better, the biggest question facing this team will be whether or not the Oakland pitching staff can rediscover the magic they found in 2010 now that Curt Young has been ripped away by an evil big-market team. 

Let’s look at the projected roster: 

Suzuki and Kouzmanoff, both in their prime, should hit a little bit better than they did in 2010, while Ellis is a good bet to regress as he enters his mid-thirties.  DeJesus and Willingham are both significant improvements to what was an anemic Oakland outfield last year, while Coco Crisp should be decent in centerfield as long as he remains healthy. 

As much as I like Trevor Cahill, I can’t see him continuing to post an ERA under 3.00 with that strikeout rate of his.  He’ll be decent, but expect a few more batted balls to sneak through in 2011.  However, the rotation as a whole should perform reasonably well. 

Best Case Scenario: Barton continues to add power and becomes Kevin Youkilis 2.0, Matsui rakes, the rotation pitches as well as they did last year, and the A’s win roughly 95 games and beat out Texas for the AL West title. 

Worst Case Scenario: Willingham struggles against AL pitching, Matsui and Ellis decline drastically, and the rotation proves that 2010 was a fluke.  A’s finish in 3rd place, a few games under .500. 

Conclusion: This is a team whose Pythagorean record in 2010 was 85-77, and they appear to have addressed several weaknesses this offseason.  With a slew of good, young pitchers under their control and an improving offense, we could be seeing the beginning of a steak of success similar to 2000-2003 (i.e. the “Moneyball” years). 

Projected record: 91-71

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By Jimmy, 1/5/2011 10:44 am

If you are 30-ish, and a nerd, this image will likely bring back memories.

2010 Record: 57-105
Run Scoring: 3.62 runs per game (16th out of 16)
Run Prevention: 5.35 runs per game (16th out of 16th)

There’s not a whole lot to be said.  The Pirates, a team that has been bad for nearly 20 years, were historically terrible in 2010.  By far the worst team in baseball; the team with the worst offense and the worst pitching.  Their 105 losses were the highest total by the franchise since 1952.

Last year’s atrocities aside, there is a glass-half full way to look at this team.  First and foremost: things can only get better from here.  The Pirates cannot lose more than 105 games (right? RIGHT?).  Secondly, and most importantly, the team features some very talented young players with very high ceilings.  Both Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez are possible superstars in the making, and both Neil Walker and Jose Tabata appear to be decent players on the rise.

The harsh reality, however, is that the team’s ownership doesn’t seem to be interested in spending money.  Hopeful Pirates fans might point to the turnaround experienced by the Detroit Tigers after their 119 loss season in 2003, but unlike the Pirates, the Tigers ownership has been willing to sign big paychecks.  The team hasn’t been good enough in the draft to rely on cost-controlled talent like Tampa Bay has done in recent years (it’s a pity that they were just “good” enough to miss the boat on Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg).

With all that said, let’s  see how the team looks going into the 2011 season:

Like I mentioned earlier, there are a few reasons to tune into Pirates games in 2011.  Pedro Alvarez will be 24-years-old, and should provide some much-needed offense after fully usurping the job from Andy Laroche.  Also, Andrew McCutchen could develop into one of the best centerfielders in the game in the next year or two.

While the offense should improve a bit, the pitching will still be terrible.  The Pirates late-inning bullpen options  (Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan) are decent, but they shouldn’t be expected to replicate last year’s success, and the team’s awful starting rotation won’t allow them to pitch with the lead very often.

Best Case Scenario: Alvarez emerges as an elite offensive third baseman, and McCutchen and Walker continue to improve.  The Pirates finish in last place again, but not by a large margin.

Worst Case Scenario: One of their young players gets hurt, and the team replicates 2010.

Conclusion: The highlight of the team’s summer will be making the first overall selection in the 2011 Amateur Draft this June.  They really can’t afford screw that one up.

Projected record: 64-98

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By Jimmy, 1/4/2011 11:43 am

Before we get started, I just wanted to take a moment to explain my model for the annual team previews, which has been overhauled yet again.  Its actually pretty simple (and better than my models from previous years, I think).  I’ll be stacking up the lineup and rotation each team used in 2010 next to their projected 2011 roster, and identifying a likely upgrade or downgrade at each position.

My grading system will go like this:

Once I tally up all of the expected changes, I’ll try to come up with a projected 2011 record based on their 2010 record.  Most of the changes we’ll see are slight upgrades and downgrades.  An upgrade / downgrade will sometimes occur even when dealing with the same player in 2010 and ’11; the player could be getting older, entering his prime, coming off of an injury plagued or lucky 2010 season, etc.  You won’t see very many “massive” changes in either direction.  A massive upgrade is basically the difference between a replacement level player and an All-Star.

I’ll be rating each starting position and rotation spot individually, and bench units and bullpens as a whole, but in the case of bullpens, you can multiply the win/loss effect by 2.

I’m in the process of writing the first preview now, so we’ll see how this looks on paper in the next day or so.

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By Jimmy, 12/22/2010 11:43 am

It’s been rather quiet since the recent volley of bullpen acquisitions, so while I have some time I’ll go ahead and make my picks for this year’s Hall of Fame class.

One major thing to keep in mind when reading my ballot: I don’t penalize heavily for alleged steroid abuse.  My feelings can be summarized by the idea that many, many Hall of Famers have benefited from outside influences over the years, whether it was amphetamines, doctored pitches, a segregated “whites only” league, gambling, etc.  I don’t see why we should draw a line at steroids while ignoring all of these other things that have skewed the baseball almanacs for nearly 150 years.

We have a strong ballot this year, and I’ll end up using the maximum 10 votes.  I can’t remember another year in which I would have voted for 10 guys.  I’ll list my inductees by order of preference, along with the team that should be on their cap in Cooperstown.  In the interest of time, my argument for each will be very brief.

1) Barry Larkin – SS – Cincinnati Reds
12-time All Star, 2 Top Ten MVP votes, 1 MVP, 1 World Series Ring
Larkin is quite possibly one of the top ten shortstops in the history of the game.  He may not have had Cal Ripken’s durability, but he was on par with Ripken in nearly all other facets.  Played his entire career for the same franchise (this gets you a slight edge in my ballot).  Would have received around 90% of the vote last year if he played in a big market (he ended up with 50%).

2) Jeff Bagwell – 1B – Houston Astros
4-time All Star, 6 Top Ten MVP votes, 1 MVP
It’s kind of odd to see that Bagwell only made 4 All-Star teams, but the 1990′s were an era with lots of good first basemen (three of them are on this ballot).  Easily the best hitter in Astros franchise history.

3) Tim Raines – LF – Montreal Expos
7-time All Star, 3 Top Ten MVP Votes, 1 World Series Ring
Played his entire career in the shadow of Rickey Henderson, and thus is severely underrated.  Raines actually had a better SB percentage than the SB king himself (86% vs 81%).  Maybe the most productive NL outfielder during the 1980′s.

4) Mark McGwire – 1B – Oakland A’s
12-time All Star, 5 Top Ten MVP Votes, 1 World Series Ring
People are starting to forget how much of an offensive wrecking ball this guy was.  Right now, you can buy a ticket to the Baseball Hall of Fame and marvel at the plaque of Joe George “High Pockets” Kelly, but not McGwire’s.  A bunch of pretentious writers will probably ensure that it stays this way.

5) Bert Blyleven – SP – Minnesota Twins
2-time All Star, 4 Top Ten Cy Young Votes, 2 World Series Rings
The arguments I’ve read for not voting for Blyleven (“he wasn’t a big game pitcher”, “you never looked at the scorecard and said ‘oh no, we’re facing Bert Blyleven”, “baseball is about winning, and he didn’t win enough ballgames”) are all stupid.  Nine of Blyleven’s top ten comparable players on baseballreference.com are Hall of Famers.

6) Roberto Alomar – 2B – Toronto Blue Jays
12-time All Star, 5 Top Ten MVP Votes, 2 World Series Rings
Alomar never really identified himself with one franchise, which I think is a reason for his lack of support last year.  He and Blyleven were both a couple of votes short, so I’m guessing that they both get in this year.

7) Larry Walker – RF – Colorado Rockies
5-time All Star, 4 Top Ten MVP Votes, 1 MVP
The fact that his best seasons were played in Coors Field probably hurts him in the eyes of some voters, but Walker’s numbers would have been impressive if his home park was located on one of Jupiter’s moons.

8) Alan Trammell – SS – Detroit Tigers
6-time All Star, 3 Top Ten MVP Votes, 1 World Series Ring
Alan was hurt by inconsistency.  He has some years that were truly great, followed up by years in which he was so-so.  Still, next to Ripken, he was the 2nd-best SS in the American League during most of his career.

9) Raphael Palmeiro – 1B – Texas Rangers
4-time All Star, 3 Top Ten MVP Votes
An excellent player for a very long time.  I fully expect Raffy to get less than 10% of the actual vote and fall of the ballot completely.  If voters want to discount his career that much based on a PED he may have ingested later in his career, that’s fine.  It’s not how I would vote, though.

10) Kevin Brown – SP – Texas Rangers
6-time All Star, 5 Top Ten Cy Young Votes, 1 World Series Ring
Like Alomar, he bounced around for most of his career, and he was also a notorious douchebag.  Both of these things will hurt him in the voting.  His career is pretty similar to that of Curt Schilling, who would also get my vote once he becomes eligible.

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By Jimmy, 12/18/2010 11:02 am

As Emperor Palpatine would say, the Red Sox bullpen construction appears to be “complete” and the relief corps is now “fully operational”.  Boston has agreed to terms with Dan Wheeler (I described him here a few days ago).

Right now, the Red Sox bullpen is looking like this:

Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
Dan Bard, RHP
Bobby Jenks, RHP
Dan Wheeler, RHP
Scott Atchison, RHP
Tim Wakefield, RHP
Obligatory Lefty, LHP

“Obligatory Lefty” will be one out of a group of Rich Hill, Felix Doubront, Lenny DiNardo, and Andrew Miller.  It probably won’t be decided until late March, but I’ll make a very premature prediction: Rich Hill makes the team, Felix Doubront joins the rotation in Pawtucket in an effort to develop him as a starting pitcher, Lenny DiNardo carpools with Doubront to Pawtucket, and Andrew Miller is released during Spring Training.

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By Jimmy, 12/14/2010 7:40 am

In another shocking development, coveted pitcher Cliff Lee has decided to sign with the Phillies for 5 years and $115 million.  There’s two things that make this news surprising: the Phillies had not been mentioned at all as a possible suitor for Lee’s services, and the Yankees had a 7 year, $138 million deal on the table for Lee.

Most people just take the Tappan Zee Bridge when they want to avoid New York.  Cliff Lee paid $23 million dollars to do it.

Other tidbits:

• The New York Yankees rotation, as it stands, is CC, Burnett, Hughes, Ivan Nova, and David Phelps. I’ll raise a mimosa to that.  You’d have to think that they’ll make a hard run at Zack Greinke now.  If I’m Kansas City GM Dayton Moore, I tell New York that the discussion starts at Jesus Montero.  KC has all the leverage here.
• Despite rumors to the contrary, there is no deal in place to send pitcher Joe Blanton from Philly to Boston.  They did discuss a trade.  I’m not sure if the Sox see Blanton as a starter or a reliever.  If it’s the former, another move would obviously need to be made (most likely involving Daisuke Matsuzaka).

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By Jimmy, 12/9/2010 11:50 am

Let’s take a peek at the Red Sox roster as it currently stands.  I’m making a few assumptions and guessing the 25 guys they would leave Fort Myers with if today were April 1st.

Note: that batting order is how I would arrange it against a right-handed starting pitcher.  I’m not really sure what Terry Francona’s plans are.  Pete Abraham mentioned the idea of Crawford hitting third, which I’m not a fan of at all.

• Names in Blue: players who are certain to keep their spot if healthy
• Names in Green: players who would probably be adequate in their roles, but could be supplanted by an acquisition
• Names in Red: players who aren’t really MLB-quality, and are good bets to be replaced.  In fact, my next post will be looking at some available pitchers who the Sox could target to fill these gaps.

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By Jimmy, 12/6/2010 10:48 am

Now that the dust from the Adrian Gonzalez trade is beginning to clear, let’s take a quick look at what we have here.

First and foremost, any analysis of Gonzalez should be done while using his road performance, since his home park is extremely favorable to pitchers.  Let’s take a look at how he fared on the road, in comparison to his elite peers at first base:

Keep in mind, Adrian’s shoulder injury was sustained in May.  He was playing hurt most of the year, and was forced to change his approach at the plate to compensate for the weak shoulder.  Still, he ended up with some pretty impressive power numbers despite the shoulder issues.

The shoulder surgery is a mild concern, but we’d have to think that the Red Sox medical staff kicked the tires here before any decision was made.

Let’s take a look at what type of hitter Gonzalez is, and how his style might translate to Fenway Park.  Earlier, I commented on how Carl Crawford (another left-handed hitter) might struggle to hit for any power here since he was a dead-pull hitter and Fenway is deep in straight-away right field.  Fortunately, Gonzalez does not discriminate when it comes to the long ball:

Those were his home runs in 2010 thanks to HitTrackerOnline.com.  Plotting his homers, doubles, and fly outs at Petco on MLB.com tells a similar story:

See that nice little cluster of fly ball outs near the left field wall in Petco Park?  In Fenway, those will not be caught by any outfielder who isn’t wearing circus clown stilts.

Okay, now that we’ve established that Gonzalez is a lefty who hits to all fields, we can address the other concern people have in regards to left-handed power hitters; how does he do against left-handed pitching?  Before 2010, Adrian did struggle a bit against lefties.  However, his splits have gradually improved until last year he managed to actually hit better against left-handed pitching than he did against righties.  Behold:

Finally, let’s take a look at how Gonzalez performed against difficult competition (Interleague play and a select few elite pitchers with whom he’s familiar):

Adrian crushed the opposition in Interleague play last season, and has done fairly well against some very good pitchers, with the exception of Lincecum and Jiminez.

While no one is exactly sure how Adrian will play in Boston over the next few years (assuming he signs an extension) most of the recent data we have available seems to indicate that he will probably excel here.  It appears that Red Sox fans have a reason to be excited over this one.

Other tidbits:

• It doesn’t look like any contract extension is in place as of yet.
• Seven years for Jayson Werth.  Good god.  I’m guessing Nationals ownership will get a holiday fruit basket from the MLBPA union lawyers, and another one from Carl Crawford.

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By Jimmy, 12/1/2010 10:15 am

A few weeks ago, the Red Sox traded left-hander Dustin Richardson to the Marlins for another left-hander; former elite prospect Andrew Miller.

Miller, of course, was considered the top pitcher in the amateur draft back in 2006, but his stock has gradually declined since then.  He is out of options, meaning the Red Sox would have to keep him on the Major League roster or expose him to waivers.  To say that he is a project is an understatement.

Miller’s biggest problem has been his control, most likely due to his mechanical problems.  It’s not a pretty picture:

Pitching coach Curt Young has been lauded for his success with the young rotation in Oakland, but none of those guys were experiencing issues even close to what Miller is going through.  There are some parallels between Miller and pre-2009 Daniel Bard (as the linked ProJo article points out), but Bard has had the benefit of triple-digit velocity, while Miller is a guy who will need to rely on ground ball outs with his sinking 91 MPH fastball.

I’m not optimistic here.  Trading Dustin Richardson for Miller is akin to dropping $10 into a slot machine. You’re not losing much, and while the possibility of a big payoff is there, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Prediction: Miller will be out of the organization by May 1st.

Other tidbits:

• I often defend Tom Brady when out-of-towners rip him for being a long haired prima donna, but he’s making my position a difficult one.  Becoming the spokesperson for Men’s Uggs?  Really, dude?
• I’m not arguing the pros and cons of social welfare here, but it’s crazy that the majority of expiring unemployment benefits actually end on Christmas Day.  Not December 31st.  Not December 1st.  Christmas Day.  What kind of sick, twisted bastard wrote that policy?
• Time to crack open those travel websites and (if you’re from Rhode Island) start hitting those tanning booths.  The Spring Training schedule is officially out.  I’ll once again be providing on-site coverage for a week or so.  Last year, I was only involved in three near-fatal accidents with 90-year-olds, which is a record low for me.  Things are trending upwards.
• Things are still quiet.  Beltre and Lopez declined arbitration, but we knew that was happening.  I’ll be on the lookout for any news.

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By Jimmy, 10/20/2010 6:30 am

Given the current state of the ALCS, I’d like to briefly turn your attention to a prediction I made in early April:

ALCS: Rangers over Yankees (5 games)

There are a few other things I may have gotten right (I may have correctly guessed both Rookie of the Year winners), but you can go ahead and ignore most of that post.

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By Jimmy, 9/22/2010 8:47 am

It’s time once again to turn our attention to what likely is the only race the 2010 Red Sox have any stake in: the battle for the American League Cy Young Award.

I’m not going to go into much detail on last night’s “game” against the Orioles, aside from the fact that Clay Buchholz managed to pitch 6 innings without yielding any earned runs.  Buchholz and his teammate Jon Lester are both in the running for the Cy this year.  Let’s take another peek at the candidates as we head into the final two weeks of the 2010 regular season.   In no particular order:

* Soria, the token reliever in this race, has 40 saves.

Keep in mind that I’m using stats that the members of the Baseball Writers Association generally use, so for now, we’ll table VORP and WAR and the like.

At this point, I’d have to say that Felix Hernandez probably deserves to win the award (barring a terrible performance in his final two starts).  However, given the fact that no starter has ever won the award with fewer than 15 wins (a record that was set last year by Tim Lincecum), Felix is a long shot.

My guess is the actual voting would go something like this:

1) Sabathia
2) Lester
3) Price
4) Hernandez
5) Buchholz

If Jon Lester manages to win his last two starts (@ New York and @ Chicago) and reach the all-important 20 win plateau, his high K total gives him a real shot to win this thing.  As of right now, the award unfortunately belongs to the 400-pound cheeseburger assassin in the Bronx.

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By Jimmy, 9/15/2010 10:24 am

The official MLB 2011 schedule was released yesterday, which means it is time to start thinking about weekend vacations for next summer, whether they be with a significant other or a throng of buddies.

First, let’s start out with the weekend interleague away games (always a hit with traveling Sox fans):

Sox @ Pittsburgh: June 24-26
Sox @ Houston: July 1-3

It seems like the Sox haven’t had the benefit of facing too many cupcakes from the National League recently.  Thankfully, that is going to change in 2011,.  The modern day Pittsburgh Pirates are probably the weakest franchise in American sports, and Houston is on the wrong side of mediocrity.  As far as the stadiums/cities go, I’ve been to Pittsburgh but have never been to Houston.  Despite having an extremely shitty team, the Pirates have one of the nicest stadiums in the game, and Pittsburgh is one of the nicest small cities I’ve ever been too.  If I had to describe the area around PNC Park with one word, I’d use “clean”.  Very walkable, nice restaurants and bars, not a whole lot of squalor.

Houston, from what I’ve heard, is one of those places that is difficult to get around without a car, which I’m personally not a fan of.  I’d still be interested in checking it out, since it’s something like the 4th largest city in America and I assume they have decent BBQ and Mexican restaurants down there (both are a rarity in Boston).  The Sox play there on 4th of July weekend, which makes it a good travel option due to the extra day off.

Other interesting travel options:

Sox @ Detroit: May 27-29

Memorial Day Weekend.  The Detroit Tigers play in my favorite MLB stadium (among the 15 or so I’ve been to).  The city of Detroit itself is an interesting place to see, but for entirely different reasons.  Unless you really know the area, bar-hopping isn’t an option.  The must-see places in Detroit are the ruins, i.e. the massive abandoned plants, factories, and neighborhoods.  If you’re at all into American history, there’s a treasure trove of stuff to see there.

Sox @ New York: September 24-26

A late-September matchup at Yankee Stadium would make for a great trip for obvious reasons (assuming both teams are vying for a playoff spot at that time).  The new stadium is about 10 times nicer than the old place, unless you are one of those codgers who thrive on minimalism and discomfort when watching a ballgame.  The area where the stadium is located (South Bronx) is the anus of the east coast, but cab or subway can take you into Manhattan, where there is a ton of stuff to see and do and many residents are transplants who do not care for the local baseball team.  Check it out.

Sox @ Texas: April 1-3

Opening Day Weekend.  I’d like to see Dallas/Arlington for the same reasons I’d be curious to see Houston.  For what I gather, the Texans enjoy their fair share of food and alcohol.  Sounds like a decent weekend to me.  From an on-field standpoint, the Rangers have a pretty good team these days, and the games themselves would be interesting.

Sox @ Baltimore: September 26-28

Note, this is not a weekend; these games take place on Monday through Wednesday.  I’m listing it here because Camden Yards makes for a great low-cost destination for people in the Boston area, and the weather in Charm City will be nice in late September (avoid the mid-July games in Baltimore, when the humidity will be oppressive).  This is the first time I can remember where the Sox are not scheduled to spend a weekend in Baltimore in the unbalanced schedule era.  Whoever created this schedule deserves to be beaten with a wet burlap sac.

Sox @ Toronto: June 10-12

This is high on my list of places to visit, since I’ve never actually been to Toronto.  Every time my friends organize a trip to our northern neighbor, we end up in Montreal for whatever reason.  I think it’s because we enjoy observing the European influenced art and architecture, and visiting their world-renowned museums.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.

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By Jimmy, 9/3/2010 9:16 am

As the major league team continues to twitch and convulse like a car-struck deer begging to be put out of its misery, it is becoming increasingly clear that our focus should turn to the future.

Now that the rosters have expanded and the minor league season is winding down, this is as good a time as any to rank our prospects.

My definition of prospect is the generally accepted rookie definition: fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.  Under this criteria, most of the younger guys promoted throughout the year (Kalish, Doubront, Reddick, Bowden) still qualify at this point.  Daniel Nava is only 13 at-bats away from reaching non-rookie status, and he’ll probably hit that milestone next week, so I’ll leave him off the list.

Ryan Kalish came into 2010 as a bit of an afterthought after names like Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, and Josh Reddick, but now he has a foothold in the crowded 2011 outfield picture after hitting .294/.382/.502 between AA and AAA and holding his own in a considerable MLB stint.  His presence may even allow the Sox to consider trade possibilities that would have been unheard of prior to this year.

I’m probably higher on Jose Iglesias than others, but there’s just something I find appealing about the prospect of stellar shortstop defense coupled with decent contact hitting.  Of course, the lack of power and plate discipline is a concern, and while the former will likely never fully develop, the latter could certainly be improved upon with another year of seasoning in the minors.  All in all, 2010 was a decent showing for a guy getting his first taste of professional baseball in America, and it appears as though he’s on track to take over for Marco Scutaro in 2012.

It’s really difficult to compare Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson at this point.  Both seem to have All-Star first baseman potential, but Rizzo has been rising quickly, while Anderson’s stock has been stagnant after he was a tad over-hyped in his first pro season.  Both players are young for their current levels, and both will likely repeat in AA and AAA next season, respectively.  While neither player’s overall numbers are eye-popping, it should be noted that Anderson hit .286./376./486 on the road in AAA, while RIzzo has his .268/.356/.497 after the All-Star break.

Casey Kelly came into the year as the consensus top pitching prospect in the organization, but he has been overmatching a bit in Portland this season after being aggressively promoted (like Anderson and Rizzo).  Right now, his fastball sits at around 91-92 MPH, so he’ll need to add some velocity if he is to reach his full potential.  Still, Kelly has shown excellent command of multiple pitches, and was one of the youngest starting pitchers in his league this season.  He has lots of time to develop.

With Iglesias receiving a lot of hype after his impressive debut, Yamaico Navarro is probably the most underrated prospect in the organization.  It appears that a lot of folks are fogetting that Iglesias isn’t the only decent SS prospect in the system.  Navarro, still only 22-years-old, has been very impressive since being promoted to Pawtucket, and even flashed competence during a brief trial in Boston.

Anthony Ranaudo is a 2010 bonus baby with a very high potential, albeit at a high risk.  He was the best pitcher in college baseball before suffering an elbow injury, and has yet to return to form.  Theo Epstein, as he is prone to do, shelled out top dollar for the high-upside arm in hopes that his potential will one day be realized.

Perhaps no other prospect saw his stock fall further (not including injured guys like Ryan Westmoreland and Junichi Tazawa) than Josh Reddick.  However, Reddick has been hitting very well lately, raking at a .363/.385/.643 clip since the All-Star break.  He still has the potential to be a decent starting outfielder at the Major League level, and his recent play has been very encouraging.

My favorite catcher in the system is the big-hitting Yalie, Ryan Lavarnway.  A lot of folks discount him due to his defensive shortcomings, but honestly, I cannot remember the last time the Red Sox employed the services of a strong throwing defensive catcher on a regular basis (as a starter).  The most recent guy I can think of would be Tony Pena, and I’d rather not see a return to those days.  It’s time to accept that a team can win with an all-bat/no-arm catcher.

The left-handed Felix Doubront (along with his RHP counterpart, Michael Bowden) has found a role on the major league staff by lending his arm to a decimated bullpen, and he has performed somewhat impressively there.  However, I think he still may have a career in the back-end of a major league rotation in his future, barring injury.  His potential is similar to the injured Junichi Tazawa.

All in all, it seems like a fairly deep minor league system, with a lot of new talent added via a strong draft and the Manny Delcarmen trade.  We’ll keep an eye on things as the Arizona Fall League and the winter leagues kick into gear.

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By Jimmy, 8/9/2010 9:19 am

On the heels of the devastating season-ending injury to Kevin Youkilis, the Red Sox have thrown a proverbial Hail Mary by signing 38-year-old Carlos Delgado to a minor league deal.  Delgado has not appeared in the major leagues since May 10th, 2009.  The best case scenario here would be for Delgado to join the team in two weeks and serve as an occasional left-handed replacement for Mike Lowell, who has a .621 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.

A while ago, I wrote a piece on outfielder Jim Edmonds, discussing whether or not he was Hall of Fame worthy.  Ultimately, I decided that he should eventually be enshrined in Cooperstown.  I’ll be conducting the same type of analysis on the newest member of the Red Sox organization.

This one will be a little trickier than the Edmonds analysis, due to Delgado’s position.  There have been a lot of 450-550-HR first baseman/corner outfielder types in MLB over the past 20 years, and not all of them are necessarily Hall of Fame worthy.

I’ll post my analysis and decision when I get a chance.