Lester off as Red Sox’s progress stalls

Yes, that’s it. Their “progress” has “stalled”.  Just to recap, the “progress” includes going 5 and 17 in September, losing 6 out of their last 7, and setting up quite possibly the worst regular season choke in baseball history.

Box Score

If you were to analyze the pool of baseball fans in America, at both ends of the spectrum you’d notice two extremes: the old school fan who shuns statistics and relies more on intuition and first-hand experiences, and the quantitative SABR type who embraces statistics and scoffs at the gut feeling approach to baseball analysis. I probably lean towards the latter. However, there’s one thing that the SABR extremists sometimes fail to recognize: sometimes it’s OK to be irrationally sentimental. After all, we’re spending our time obsessing over men who are paid vast fortunes to hit leather balls with wooden sticks, which is a very irrational act in itself.

Therefore, I think it’s OK to throw some props towards Tim Wakefield this morning. We don’t have to pretend that he’s having a good year, or that he pitched well last night, or that the win statistic is very meaningful. For better or for worse, milestones like this one are meaningful to most observers, and that alone makes them important.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Dustin Pedroia (4 for 5, 2 HRs, 4 runs, 5 RBI, 29.5% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Brandon Morrow (5 runs allowed in 5.1 innings, -41.9% WPA)

1. With the bases loaded and two outs in the 1st, Toronto first baseman David Cooper scoops up a routine grounder hit by Josh Reddick, and air-mails the ball over the pitcher covering first. Two runs score on the error. (16.0% WPA)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury hits a solo HR with 2 outs in the 4th (12.9% WPA).
3. Dustin Pedroia immediately follows Ellsbury’s HR with one of his own (12.7% WPA).

“Panic is unbecoming.”

- Larry Lucchino, Red Sox CEO

Box Score

Hey, look, it’s our old friend: Humiliating Failure! It’s been years!  SO NICE TO SEE YOU.

That’s right folks, you can hold off a moment before planning that October trip into Boston, or maybe plan on going to the Aquarium or the MFA instead. After losing 5 in a row, the Red Sox are now just 3.5 games ahead of total disaster.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: B.J. Upton (4 for 4 with a grand slam, BB, 2B, 4 RBI, 2 runs, 16.6% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Jon Lester (4 innings, 8 hits, 3 walks, 4 runs, -26.4% WPA)

1. Ben Zobrist hits a bases-loaded single in the 1st (9.4% WPA)
2. David Ortiz lines out to shallow left field with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 3rd (8.6% WPA).
3. B.J. Upton hits a grand slam in the 5th, sealing the deal (8.5% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“If we keep on playing like that, we’ll be home in the tub.”

- David Ortiz, on his team’s plan for October

Box Score

I’ve quickly gone through Tim Wakefield‘s game logs (no easy task for a guy who’s been in the Majors since the H.W. Bush administration), and from what I can tell, this is his longest streak of “winless” starts (7) since back in 2000.  Eleven years ago, when his teammates included the likes of Dante Bichette and Jose Offerman, Wakefield started 9 straight games without being credited with the victory.

I don’t think I need to explain the flaws of the Win statistic at this point, but Wakefield’s quest for win #200 is big deal simply because…it’s a big deal.  Or, as Bill Belichick might say: it is what it is.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Jose Bautista (1 for 2 with a double, 2 walks, 2 runs, 2 RBI, 43.1% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Dan Bard (5 runs allowed in the 8th inning, -42.3% WPA)

1. Edwin Encarnacion hits a bases-loaded double in the 8th, scoring all three runners (33.4% WPA)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury hits a 3-run HR in the 4th to give the Sox a 2-run lead  (30.2% WPA).
3. Jose Bautista walks with the bases loaded and two outs in the 8th, tying the game and setting up the Encarnacion double (26.7% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“We’re trying for him. He did his job today and I didn’t do mine.’’

- Dan Bard

Other Notes:

• Kyle Weiland will start lieu of Josh Beckett Saturday against the Rays.
• Clay Buchholz played long-toss yesterday, and it’s looking like he could very well return before the regular season ends.

Box Score

After losing four out of their last five games and watching the divisional lead begin to slip away, the Red Sox took out their angst and frustration on a hapless Canadian baseball club, mashing the Toronto Blue Jays into paste in front of a horrified Rogers Centre crowd.

I think we’ve been waiting for a game like this for quite some time. The Sox had just about everything working right last night.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Adrian Gonzalez (3 for 5 with a double, 3 runs, 3 RBI, 15.8% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Luis Perez (8 runs allowed before getting yanked, -41.0% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

1. Adrian Gonzales gets the party started with an RBI double in the 1st  (9.3% WPA)
2. Carl Crawford hits another RBI double in the 1st  (8.2% WPA).
3. David Ortiz singles in the first to score Gonzalez (6.2% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“I think we’ve found a new six-hole hitter on the team”

- Marco Scutaro, having a little fun after going 4 for 5

Other Notes:

• According to Pete Abraham, Jon Lester is 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last 5 starts.
• The diagnosis on Josh Beckett is a bad ankle sprain, no surgery required.  He’ll miss 1 start at least. Obligatory worthless non-athlete anecdotal tidbit: a bad ankle sprain had me useless for a month back in my “prime” basketball days (by “prime”, I mean playing in a co-ed league with a bunch of hipsters).
• The AAA Pawtucket Red Sox begin their playoff series against the Iron Pigs of Lehigh Valley tonight.

Box Score

Prized Toronto rookie Brett Lawrie hit a walk-off home run in the 11th inning to beat the Red Sox, and unfortunately, that’s not the worst news SOx fans received on Labor Day. Josh Beckett left the game with a right ankle injury, of which the severity is not known.  Beckett is flying to Boston to have the ankle checked out.

Obviously, any serious injury to Beckett would be awful for Boston’s championship aspirations, given how thin the rotation is at the moment. No one really wants to see John Lackey pitch one of the first 3 games of the divisional series, but it might be a necessity.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Brett Lawrie (walk-off HR in 11th inning, 46.2% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Dan Wheeler (see above, -35.7% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

1. The HR, of course  (46.3% WPA)
2. Jonathan Papelbon strikes out Adam Lind in the 10th with 2 outs and the bases loaded (16.2% WPA).
3. Josh Reddick doubles with 1 out in the 9th (11.8% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“I could wake up tomorrow and feel like playing basketball. We’ll just see.”

- Josh Beckett, on the uncertainty of his injury

Please don’t.

Prospect Watch:

• AAA: Third baseman Will Middlebrooks, now the #1 rated prospect at soxprospects.com, went 1 for 3 with a HR in Pawtucket’s win over Rochester.  
  
• High A: Pitcher Stolmy Pimental, whose stock has dropped drastically after a disappointing season, provided fans with a glimmer of hope by pitching 7 strong innings and only yielding 2 hits.
• Low A: Second baseman Sean Coyle, went 3 for 5 with 2 home runs and 7 RBI in Greenville’s 11-4 rout.  Sean’s Isolated Power (Slugging % – Batting Average) is .217, which is amazing given his age, frame, and position.

Other Notes:

• As the minor league season winds down, I’ll be working on a final ranking list. It will be up in a week or so, most likely.
• Chris Jaffe takes us back to 10 years ago last Friday, when one of the more memorable Red Sox – Yankees games took place:  Mike Mussina’s near-perfect game broken up by “Jurassic” Carl Everett with 2 outs in the 9th. I remember watching that game at the White Horse Tavern (a vivid memory despite my inebriated state), and jeering bitterly at some college-aged Yankees fans who were loudly cheering on Mussina. There was a world of difference between then and now, in terms of the attitude amongst Sox fans.

Box Score

While the Sox managed to win their third straight game, the contest was not without a modicum of heartache, as reliever Alfredo Aceves wasn’t able to hold on to Tim Wakefield’s one-run lead in the 8th inning, preventing the 45-year-old from notching his long-sought 200th win.

When Wakefield does win his 200th (and he will have a decent chance against lowly Seattle next weekend), the achievement will be unique in many ways as Chris Jaffe from THT points out in a very informative piece.

Milestones aside, the Red Sox continue to roll.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: David Ortiz (4 for 5, HR, 2B, go-ahead single in 9th, 3 runs, 3 RBI, 67.7% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Joe Nathan (.1 inning, 3 hits, 1 run, -48.2% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

1. Ortiz hits a 2-out single in the 9th inning to put the Red Sox ahead (36.1% WPA).
2. Aceves gets Michael Cuddyer to ground out with one out in the 8th, holding the tying run at 3rd (17.4% WPA).
3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit a HR in the 6th to tie the game at 5 a piece (16.6% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“He heard the big elephant coming.”

- David Ortiz, professing his theory as to why Joe Mauer dropped the throw to home plate allowing him to score

Prospect Watch:

• Low A: Shortstop Xander Bogarts, a guy who some describe as 18-year-old Hanley Ramirez without the star complex, went 4 for 5 with a walk-off home run in the 10th inning last night.  He has a .509 slugging percentage, which is extremely impressive considering his age and position.
  

Box Score

Seeing as though the Cleveland franchise insists on continuing to use their outdated logo, I suppose it’s only fitting that an actual Native American delivered the final blow in last night’s rain-soaked battle.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Jacoby Ellsbury (1 for 5 with a walk-off single, 21.3% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Vinnie Pestano (.1 inning, 3 hits allowed including the walk-off single, -35.0% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

1. Ellsbury hits a walk-off single in the 9th, Jarrod Saltalamacchia scores from 2nd base, sliding just ahead of the tag  (28.3% WPA)
2. Kevin Youkilis hits a HR to lead off the 6th inning (16.9% WPA).
3. David Huff throws a wild pitch in the 2nd, allowing David Ortiz to score (8.3% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“We got Salty in there — that’s the only guy we had,”

- Terry Francona, on his decision to use Saltalamacchia as a pinch runner for Jason Varitek in the 9th.

Francona’s decision is one that will ultimately be forgotten by most fans as soon as tomorrow morning, but it’s a move that paid off big. That was a very close play at the plate with Salty running, and there is no way that Jason Varitek scores there. The decision to use Saltalamacchia, who is only slightly faster than Tek, was key to last night’s victory.

Prospect Watch:

• AAA: First baseman Lars Anderson was very nearly traded last week for Oakland starter Rich Harden. Instead, the deal fell through and he’s still with Pawtucket, hitting very well of late. He went 2 for 3 with a HR and a BB last night.   
  
• High A: Outfielder Bryce Brentz went 2 for 3 with 2 HRs. He now has 24 on the year, between Low A and High A.
• R: Center fielder Williams Jerez, a high school kid from New York taken in the 2nd round of this year’s draft, went 2 for 5 with 2 stolen bases.

Box Score

I know we all love using arbitrary endpoints when trying to present just how hot a player has been lately, so I’m going to do it here.  Since June 4th (a span of 211 plate appearances), Dustin Pedroia is hitting .382/.474/.657 with 9 HRs, 32 walks, 14 Ks, and 8 steals in 9 attempts to go along with top-flight defense at 2B. That’s not including last night’s 3 for 4 performance.

Long gone are the days where one would need to embellish his on-field contributions with terms like “gritty”, “gamer”, or “blue collar”. He’s a legitimate superstar, the best second baseman in the game. And all the proof you need is right there in the numbers.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle for him in the MVP race is the fact that two teammates (the guy who hits in front of him, and the one who hits behind him) also have a strong case. Speaking of which…

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: Jacoby Ellsbury (3 for 4 with a HR, a double, and a walk,  1 SB, 17.4% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Bruce Chen (4 innings of excrement, -52.9% WPA)

Top 3 Plays:

1. David Ortiz‘ grand slam in the 4th (11.5% WPA)
2. Dustin Pedroia’s solo HR in the 1st following Ellsbury’s lead-off HR (9.1% WPA).
3. Ellsbury’s walk with the bases loaded in the 2nd (8.6% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“It’s a compliment, It’s something you don’t think about right now when you’re playing. But when you’re done, you kind of sit down and say, ‘Well, I did OK.’ ”

- David Ortiz, on reaching 1,000 RBIs with the Sox

Note: the only other players with 1,000 RBIs with the Red Sox are Ted Williams, Jim Rice, Carl Yastrzemski, Bobby Doerr, and Dwight Evans.  Four Hall of Famers, and one guy who really should be.

Prospect Watch:

• AAA: First baseman Lars Anderson hit a HR off of a likely Hall of Famer on his rehab assignment, Roy Oswalt. Other than that, the Paw Sox really struggled against him.
  
• AA: Third baseman Will Middlebrooks went 2 for 4 with a HR. Per multiple Twitter sources last night, he’s one of the few guys that other teams have been asking about as we approach the trade deadline.

Box Score

What the hell was that “3 to 1 in 14 innings” nonsense from two nights ago? This is Fenway, not Petco Park god dammit! The final scores of Red Sox games ought to look like college football scores. Now, 13 to 9, that’s the American League I know and love.

Key Players:

• Hero of the Game: David Ortiz (4 for 5, 3 doubles, 1 walk, 5 RBI, 29.5% WPA)
• Goat of the Game: Nathan Adcock (0.1 inning, 3 hits, 3 walks, 4 runs, -47.3% WPA)

It’s not easy to cause a ~50% drop in win probability in only one third of an early inning, but Nate Adcock managed it.

Top 3 Plays:

1. Adcock misplayed a sacrifice bunt, allowing 2 runs to score.  (23.4% WPA) In the last two games, do you see what happens when American League teams bunt? All hell breaks loose.
2. Dustin Pedroia RBI double in the third (15.7% WPA).
3. Ortiz’ 2 RBI double in the third (11.3% WPA).

Quote of the Day:

“It just wasn’t a good night for us, pitching-wise. We couldn’t command the ball. It just kind of sums it all up when Mitch Maier had the best appearance of the night for us.”

- Royals manager Ned Yost, referring to the scoreless 8th inning pitched by outfielder Mitch Maier

Prospect Watch:

• AAA: Future MLB C/DH Ryan Lavarnway went 2 for 5 with 2 doubles.  
  
• Low A: SS Xander Bogaerts went 3 for 5 with a HR and a double.
• R: SS Jose Vicinio went 2 for 4 with 2 SBs (14 in 19 attempts on the year).