Steve Phillips is right, but he has no idea why. If you can stand watching an ESPN broadcast with the sound on, and really, the unintentional comedy of listening to Dan Shulman corral the two knuckleheads locked in that booth with him is reason enough, you’ve heard Phillips’ latest tirade. “Major League Baseball is on pace for one THOUSAND less home runs than in 2006.” Or something vaguely familiar and more convoluted than that.

Amateur economists like to quote a famous economist that once said “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Phillips’ filibuster on home run totals looks like some guy trying to create misleading statistical evidence. Why limit it to home runs? They aren’t the only measure of power and therefore, steroid use. Why use the entire season? Power is usually down in April and May as players adjust and power is sapped by cold weather and dense air. Why use a raw total? Generally there are more off days and rain outs in the cold northeast during April and May. If he was really trying to prove that power has declined he’d compare a rate stat over a similar time period.

As it turns out, he’s covered up the truth. Slugging was down in April, and by a large margin.

MLB SLG, April 2006: .430
MLB SLG, April 2008: .401

Thanks for dumbing it down Steve, maybe soon we’ll reach your level.

This time, it’s not an April Fool’s Joke.

Clay Buchholz has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a broken fingernail.

In need of an outfielder, the Sox have called up 28-year-old career minor leaguer Jonathan Van Every from Pawtucket.   The left-handed hitter was playing well in CF for the Pawsox, hitting .287/.365/.484 with 4 steals in 4 attempts.

Van Every has never before appeared in a MLB game.  Welcome to the encyclopedia, “kid”.

As the Sox lost their third game, this time to Jeremy Guthrie and the Baltimore Orioles, the team sustained a couple of casualties in the outfield.

J.D. Drew, a guy whose injury log reads like that of Robbie Knieval, rolled his wrist while lunging for a ball last night.  The current word is that Drew is day to day, but we all know how wrist injuries can be problematic for hitters.  If I had to wager, I’d put money down on Drew missing some games.

On a seemingly less-serious level, Coco Crisp left the game with nausea.  Unless the Great Infulenza is making an encore performance, he should be okay.  However, today’s game is early (3 PM), so anything is possible.

There’s a chance we could be seeing the return of Brandon Moss (.268/.337/.427 in Pawtucket) today.  Stay tuned.

In other notes: Boston starting pitchers have been quite abysmal in these three losses.  Here are the starters’ numbers for the past 3 games:

12.2 innings (about 4 innings per start)
26 hits
19 runs (18 earned)
12.79 ERA

Jon Lester takes the mound today, and will try to squelch this momentary lapse of pitching ability.

I don’t care if it’s lava, two wins and ten losses on any surface won’t be defending any titles. Why is this team so inept on the fake stuff? The most obvious answer is infield defense. I don’t think that’s the case here, but there are many reasons: travel schedules, pitching woes, bullpen hiccups and stronger opponents. Unfortunately they caught the Blue Jays playing their best, the Rays looking formidable, and the Twins as hot as they’ll be all season. This will even out, right?

The Rays won their fifth straight to close the gap in the AL East to a mere half game. Matt Garza looked strong, and Andy Pettitte looked old. The Bronx Bums are killing the Red Sox, even in their mediocrity. At what point do we start rooting for the Yankees? Soon.

Hey, road struggles are common among Boston teams in the spring. The Red Sox are still in first, however barely, and the Celtics have home court advantage. This is why all those regular season wins were so important. It was a bad weekend, but things could be much, much worse.

Edit: I called them the “Devil” Rays.  Save your breath, Secular Rays.

In a somewhat surprising move, Julian Tavarez was designated for assignment today to make room for Sean Casey.

Herald Link

The general assumption was that Craig Hansen would be the casualty of Casey’s return, but it looks like the Sox actually have some confidence in Hansen’s refined mechanics.

I’m not sure what will happen from here, but I have to assume that Tavarez will not accept a demotion, and will end up on another Major League team, possibly Colorado.  If this is indeed the last time we see him wearing the laundry, his Red Sox career ends at 246 innings pitched, a 4.94 ERA, 29 starts, 12 wins, 1 CG, and 1 ring.

This is a somewhat sad moment, reminiscent of the final scenes of One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest.  His antics, like those of Randall MacMurphy, will be missed.

It sounds like something that could be true, doesn’t it?

The neutral air environment of domed stadiums should help the knuckleball “flutter” with more consistency and accuracy in comparison to open air stadiums. This is a credo I’ve heard from several baseball analysts, most recently Joe Morgan on ESPN last night (note: I’m not bashing Morgan here; many other guys have said the same thing).

If you take a quick and dirty look at Tim Wakefield’s career splits, it looks like there might be something to this:

Career Open Air ERA: 4.39 (2,394 innings)
Career Dome ERA: 3.82 (276 innings)

However, once we drill a little bit deeper and look at the 3 domes that Tim has pitched in semi-regularly, a different picture is painted.

In the SkyDome/Rogers Centre in Toronto, Wakefield’s career ERA is 4.33, exactly the same as his career ERA.

In the Metrodome, the venue for Tim’s putrid performance last night, Wakefield’s career ERA is 4.54. He actually pitches worse in this dome than he does in Fenway Park (4.39).

So, where are these “good” numbers coming from? Tampa Bay, where Wakefield has held the Rays to a 2.52 ERA over 107 innings. As you know, the Rays (up until recently, perhaps) have had a long run as one of the lesser teams in Major League Baseball, a fact which probably contributes to Tim’s low dome ERA, much more so than the physics of the knuckleball.

To further dispel the myth, Tim’s K/BB ratio in domes is nearly identical to his open-air ratio: 1.76 versus 1.75.

In conclusion: sure, the knuckleball works well in domed environments…as long as you are facing a team which has finished in last place in nearly every season of their entire existence.

It was a tale of two Verlanders.  The first inning Justin was hitting the corners with his fastball and cutting up Red Sox hitters.  From the second on, he regained his control for brief instances, otherwise the patient Red Sox stalked the troubled ace and pounced when he was most vulnerable.

With a three run lead and Josh Beckett mowing down hapless Tigers, confidence was running high early.  During a day off for Manny, Kevin Youkilis filled in admirably.  He launched his fourth homer of the series, fifth in five games, to seal the deal.  In the words of the immortal genius, king of kings, Hawk Harrelson: “You can put it in the board! YYYouk!”  A less likely hero, the Captain had a solid night, 1-2 with a pair of RBIs and walks.  That’s all we ask of you, Sir Varitek.  Just don’t be a giant gaping hole where runs go to die.  Deal? Thanks.

The Largest Bullpen in Baseball did a fine job.  Mr. Electric showed his typical nasty slider and poor control.  Fortunately, the Tigers were anxious, going down in order on a dozen pitches.  In a “get your confidence up” appearance, Manny Delcarmen didn’t ruin the hard work of his teammates.  His next appearance should be of similar low leverage, and if he’s successful, its time to work him back into a meaningful role.  His return to form will allow some of the dead weight to be cut.  Always a bullpen psychologist, Francona picked a fine spot to use two kids who need some good innings under their belt.

8PM, Lester at Bonser

The Red Sox look to continue their tear through the Central, next victim: Minnesota.  The first place Twins have been a surprise, but their 17-16 record would only be good for third in any other division.  Its less a case of the Twinkies dominating than their divisional foes wetting the bed.  Pythagorus, via Bill James, says they should be 16-17, and I tend to agree.  Bonser (2-4, 4.29, 1.24) gave up six runs in the first inning of his last start May 4, but gutted out six innings and the Twins came back to take it, 7-6.  He’s shown remarkable control, 9 walks in 42 innings, but struck out only 27.  If he maintains his low ground ball rate, 39%, and doesn’t start striking guys out, the luck will run dry and those fly balls will start finding the seats.

It’s a dreary Friday in New York, I hope your weekend weather is better.  Is spring time, isn’t it?  Scientific community, where’s my weather machine?  You’ve really dropped the ball here.

I’m not sure why I listen to sports talk radio. Maybe because my forearms get a decent workout when I yank hair out of my skull.

There’s always one guy on the Red Sox who gets stamped with a bullseye in April, and wears it throughout the entire season. This player becomes the focal point of critique from nearly all outlets, from the writers of the Boston Globe down to the most inebriated potatohead caller on WEEI, regardless of the other things that might be contributing to a loss.

Two years ago, it was Edgar Renteria. Last year, it was J.D. Drew. This year, the lightning rod is back at SS: Julio Cesar Lugo.

Yes, he’s the weakest hitter in the lineup. He’s a #9 hitter. Every team has at least one weakness in their lineup. As much as I would love to see the Sox field a team of 9 guys who have a .900 OPS, it simply isn’t going to happen.

Yes, he leads the AL in errors in May. Typically, a SS will lead his league in errors. Last year, slick-fielding Jason Bartlett led the league with 26.

Let’s ignore the fact that he has decent range (reportedly quite a bit more than Jed Lowrie), and is actually hitting right around his career averages. Let’s ignore the fact that Boston pitching allowed 10 runs on 18 hits last night. Let’s ignore the fact that Edgar Renteria may have beaten the throw even if Lugo had fielded the ball cleanly.

I wish my mind worked in such simple algorithms, like the people I’ve been listening to and reading today. It must be such a stress-free lifestyle. Focus on one problem and block out everything else. Lugo make error. Sox lose. Lugo cause loss. It’s that simple.

Boston Globe headline: “Fumble Leads to Sox Loss. Shortstop Lugo Hands One to Tigers.” This is an actual headline from people who are paid salaries to write headlines.

Ignorance is bliss, and these are happy days.

On the heels of whispers of trade discussions in Denver, Terry Francona decided to thaw out Julian Tavarez and send him to the mound in a 1 run game in Detroit. The last time Tavarez was actually used in a game, a land bridge existed between Alaska and Asia.

Alas, the showcase turned into a horror flick, as Tavarez coughed up 3 quick runs in one inning of work. There are those who believe that a sinkerball pitcher shouldn’t be kept on the shelf for too long between outings, and last night wouldn’t exactly disprove that hypothesis.

Starter Clay Buchholz also struggled, though he did show flashes of brilliance when he wasn’t being possessed by the ghost of John Wasdin. Clay stuck out six and only walked one, but was extremely hittable and only lasted 4 innings before giving way to The Missing Link. In what became a battle of bullpens and clutch at-bats, Detroit edged the first-place Red Sox 10-9.

Papelbon did blow his first save of the season, but he did so without giving up one hard-hit ball. The game-winning single by Placido Polanco was just a nice piece of hitting; and perhaps a microcosm for Detroit’s performance last night. They were backed into a corner in their house, and scraped their way back on more than one occasion.

It’s just a case where you just tip your cap, walk off the field, and prepare for Justin Verlander tomorrow.

Notes:

• Loosen that noose: David Ortiz has found his stroke. The DH is hitting .423/.483/.769 in the month of May, and is finally “above average” on the season (OPS+ of 106) after suffering through the worst slump of his career.
• May has been kind to corner infielders in general, as Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell are .375/.484/1.042 and .323/.344/.677 for the month, respectively.
• Julio Lugo had a major error in the bottom of the ninth, allowing the eventual winning run to reach base. He’s quickly becoming a lightning rod, but before you grab the torch and pitchfork, consider this: a) Lugo is (from all accounts) a much better defensive option than Jed Lowrie at SS, and b) he’s actually getting on base, with a .354 OBP.

It’s a strange game. April 10th, Wakefield and Robertson locked horns in an eighteen run, four hour marathon. I rushed home at eight o’clock last night only to see half the game gone by and the remainder finished before the second half of the Celtics’ game. Thank you for considering us bandwagon Celtics fans, Red Sox.

When it appeared Timmy wouldn’t come out to finish his gem, I was pissed. Mike Timlin would get a chance to ruin it. Then I said to myself “You know, self, this could be the straw that breaks Mike Timlin’s tenuous hold on a roster spot. If he comes in and allows a run or two, maybe he’ll finally be made Bullpen Coach, Band Leader, or Luggage Porter.” Allowing a leadoff single was a good start, but a double play erased the runner and he grooved a few until Carlos Guillen flied out. He will live to see another lead blown, inherited runner scored, and bambi quiver in terror.

So it turns out David Ortiz is still awesome. Glad that’s decided. Over his last 18 games, his OPS is .942 and he’s driven in 24 runs.

Bullpen Clusterf*ck Resolved?

Denver Post: Rockies (Still) Want Tavarez

Who to target?

With a physique that makes Jeremy Brown look like Charles Atlas, the 5′9″ 225 pound Edwin Bellorin should be available. He’s spending his third year at AAA and has Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta above him on the depth chart. Did I mention he could be mistaken for the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man?

Why would I advocate acquiring such a specimen? After struggling for six years in the Dodgers’ system, he’s been reborn in Colorado Springs. In 221 at bats last year, he put up a .898 OPS, and it has continued into this year: .909, second on the Sky Sox to power prospect Joe Koshansky. He’s 26, so getting a little long in the tooth, but if his defense is acceptable he might be a guy to target.

I don’t subscribe to the “OMG Tek is getting old and looks really bad we need to replace him NOW NOW NOW!” stuff, and the catching depth in all levels of the minor league affiliates is sufficient, but Bellorin could make it better. If anyone knows of a reliable place in the tubes to find defensive analysis of fringe catching prospects, please, let me know. Specifically, can he catch the knuckler?

For a few thoughts on tonight’s matchup, check out: Series Preview. Ignore all that stuff I was wrong about.

Daisuke Matsuzaka was credited with the victory last night, and this speaks to my amazement as to why the baseball world has had such a raging stiffy for the “Win” statistic over the past 120 years or so.

Let’s break it down:

5 innings pitched. Well, that’s the minimum requirement I suppose. Huzzah.

2 hits allowed. Wow, that’s pretty good. Nice work, Dice Man.

1 earned run. Again, very impressive. What’s the problem again?

8 walks. Um…repeat that, please?

8 walks. EIGHT WALKS? WHAT THE F*&#??!!

1 strikeout. ONE STRIKEOUT AND EIGHT WALKS??!!!

Honestly, against a lineup that has about $30 billion dollars tied up in their top 5 hitters in the batting order, the Red Sox are lucky Detroit didn’t score 15 runs.

I counted about 5 line drive or long fly ball outs that were gratuitously hit either directly at our fielders or the deep part of Comerica Park, while men were on base. This is, quite honestly, the flukiest 1-run pitching performance I have ever seen.

This really shouldn’t be a “W” in the books, for the sake of quality record retention. There should be a new statistic engineered for this very thing (qualifying for a win while having a K/BB ratio of less than .25). A “Shrug” (SHR)? A “Phew” (PHW)? Last season, Matsuzaka led the American League in Phews, and he already has two or three of them this season.

I just need to get used to the fact that his strength is staying away from the strike zone, more so than the typical pitcher. Higher walk totals will hopefully continue to be coupled with low hit totals, and Daisuke will hopefully continue to win games.

However, in games where the other team “hits it where they ain’t”, there will be problems.

Side notes: Don Orsillo made us privy to an interesting factoid last night: the Red Sox are the first team in nearly 2 years to have the top 4 draft picks from a particular draft on the active roster at the same time (Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz).

One last point: I wholeheartedly approve of new NESN “sideline analyst” Heidi Watney. Sure, she stumbled a few times. But, you know…

…I think I can allow her a honeymoon period.

With April behind us, we’ve got a general idea of the character of this Red Sox team. One thing is certain: It’s gonna be a rollercoaster ride that will weaken the most iron of stomachs. After starting a Far East induced 5-6, the Sox vaulted to the top of the standings with a 10-1 run. From that point, they lost five in a row then won five of six to end up here, at a very respectable 20-13. I’d give a non-vital digit for some god damn consistency.

Detroit welcomes Boston to Comerica Park on Monday, televised on ESPN. It will probably be butchered by Dan Shulman, Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser, but hey, at least they aren’t Miller/Morgan. Detroit’s slow start was well reported, but they haven’t exactly burned the house down since “snapping out of it.” From 0-7 they stand at 14-18, and came to within a game of .500 before being swept over the weekend in Minnesota.

Brandon Moss will be sidelined for a few weeks after having an appendectomy and Mr. Electric, Craig Hansen, is back. I couldn’t be happier to see Hansen back in the pen, but not at the cost of a backup outfielder. With everyone (save Manny) in the outfield hurting, Jonathan Van Every would make a lot more sense. Comerica’s ginormous gaps make corner outfield defense that much more important, so I hope there’s a sky-is-falling plan.

Your four game series preview, in convenient bulleted form, (because I am lazy and running late this morning):

Monday, Matsuzaka vs. Bonderman

• Happy Cinco de Mayo!
• Daisuke’s last start: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 B, 111 pitches
• Sheff 6-10, HR versus Matsuzaka
• Bonderman lots of BB, few Ks, He’s throwing his fastball more and slider less than years past: 66% FB, 27% SL, compared to 58 and 35% last year
• Get to the bullpen and wear out a thin group for the long series

Tuesday, Wakefield vs. Robertson

• Happy Seis de Mayo!
• Magglio 15-35, 5 2B, 2 HR vs Wake
• Robertson: first W of the season last time out vs Yankees, 6.28 ERA needs run support
• 4/10: Same matchup, Sox won 12-6

Wednesday, Buchholz vs. Galarraga

• Galarraga: 1.88 ERA, 0.875 WHIP
• older than Bonderman, his last good pro season in a meaningful sample, 2005 in high A
• tall, lanky righty: 6′4″ 180 lbs.
• No one on the Sox has faced him
• He has been avoiding solid contact and home runs, 0.38 HR/9, .186 BABIP.
• Revert him! To the mean, Alice, to the mean!

Thursday, Beckett vs. Verlander

• Finale and exclamation point
• Verlander: 1.44 WHIP, 6.28 ERA
• Command is killing him, LD% and GB% both better than career averages
• Beckett: 0.96 WHIP! Everything else in line with career averages

In honor of not listening to Joe Morgan, one of my favorite blogs: Fire Joe Morgan.

Sports Illustrated recently ran an interesting little poll, asking fans how they rate their baseball stadiums based on a variety of factors, including atmosphere, food, neighborhood, among others. Surprising to some, but not as surprising to some others (myself included), Fenway Park had a rather lackluster showing, placing 21st out of 30 in the overall ranking.

Now, I have a bit of a love-hate relationship with Fenway. I love the look of the stadium: the green walls, the brick exterior, the giant neon red Budweiser sign, the metal scoreboard, and just about every other cosmetic characteristic of 4 Yawkey Way.

I love the nostalgia factor. I very much appreciate the fact that Smokey Joe Wood stood atop the same dirt mound as as Daisuke Matsuzaka (give or take a few inches of dirt), and Ted Williams fielded ricochets from the same green wall as Manny Ramirez.

However, the Love Train derails abrupty after those two stops.

Do you want to know why Fenway ranks low in the “food” department, even though they offer clam chowder and sausage sangwiches (sic) and pizza and steamed franks? It’s because you’re likely to miss up to three innings while getting the food, thanks to the crowded, narrow pathways and over-utilized, understaffed vendor kiosks. You’ll have an easier time navigating through Mary-Kate Olsen’s uterus.

Do you want to know why Fenway ranks low in the “atmosphere” department, even though the crowd is as loud and electric and intense as they are in any other ballpark? Because the seats are built to fit WWI-era Irish leprechauns, thousands of grandstand seats do not face home plate, and there are dozens of load-bearing columns that sit directly in front of $45 grandstand seats.

To their credit, this ownership group has done wonderful things with several capital improvements on Fenway, something which likely factors into the newfound level of demand the park currently enjoys. However, after tens of millions of dollars have been spent on Fenway Park, the most glaring issues have not, and will never, be rectified. Fenway and the surrounding area sit atop a giant swamp (or “fens”), making it very difficult to build or change anything, due to reasons beyond my pay grade (environmental, structural, ect…). Essentially, there is a ceiling to the amount of renovation that can take place at Fenway.

The Yankees and Mets have similar issues; they have expensive ticket prices at sub-par ballparks. However, both teams will be getting new stadiums next year. A new Red Sox ballpark is not on any horizon, but should it be? Should there be a long term plan for a new stadium (15 years or so)?

I acknowledge this with a heavy heart: there is only one way to fix the most glaring problem faced by ticket-buying fans of the Boston Red Sox:

Sox Win in Carbon Copy of Previous Night’s Victory, Starting Pitching On Fire

As much as I enjoy watching this team play high stakes pepper with Vernon Wells, it will be nice to see a 10 run rout as some point in the near future.

Regardless, the Red Sox have developed quite a penchant for winning games in their last at-bat, a trait often exhibited by the World Champion teams of 2004 and 2007. Amazingly, 8 of their 17 wins have been of the “Walk-Off” variety.

Going into this season, the major uncertainty (I hesitate to use the word “weakness”) on this team was their starting rotation. However, the rotation has been phenomenal recently, one of the few bright spots on this team.

In the past 6 games, starters have pitched 42 innings, giving up only 18 hits and 7 earned runs. This is good for an ERA of 1.50, and an amazingly low 3.86 H/9. A strong display of infield defense over this stretch (especially from Dustin Pedroia and the newly activated Mike Lowell) has helped the starters in this department.

While I love seeing games won by strong pitching, nifty defense, and clutch situational hitting, the offense needs to wake up soon. As lofty as those pitching numbers are, the recent offensive performance from most of the team has been very dismal.

Tonight, the Sox square off against A.J. Burnett, a pitcher who is usually tough when healthy, but has had a rough season thus far, allowing 52 baserunners in only 29.2 innings. No word yet on the status of J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, or David Ortiz (who is clearly playing with a bad knee) but with these guys questionable and Kevin Cash back in the lineup, run support might be a scarce commodity yet again.

This is outrageous, absurd, and indefensible.

Basically, if you don’t have box seats at a Dodger game, good luck getting an autograph.  Under the guise of answering complaints regarding “the crowded conditions pregame at [box] seats and on the concourse from fans trying to get close to the players,”  Dodger stadium no longer allows fans who don’t hold those seats  into that area.

What?!  If I have a seat near the dugout and I don’t feel like hounding players for autographs, I’m not at the game yet.  If you are, there are plenty of seats available three hours before game time.  Oh? You don’t want some of the rabble’s discarded hot dog wrapper on the ground in front of you?  Throw it away or don’t bother coming, asshole.

This is just another example of the elitism of baseball.  It’s long been a game for the rich, and that’s becoming more extreme.  As a proper capitalist, I have no problem with higher prices for premium seats, as long as there are some that are reasonably affordable and no fan is treated differently based on “class.”  We’ve all come together to enjoy this game, we’ll go to trendy nightclubs for the velvet rope.  I’ve sat “behind the ropes” in the best seats in Yankee Stadium, and frankly, been embarrassed at the waiter service and Stadium Club bullshit.  Its in baseball’s best interest to keep as many kids as possible as fans, and Frank McCourt, Charles Steinberg and the Dodgers clearly don’t care about poor kids.
I’ll forever celebrate the day John W. Henry bought the Sox, mostly because he wasn’t Frank McCourt.

(After writing this, I’ve realized the article is three weeks old.  Whatever, more people need to know.)

A young man once walked into a doctor’s office after sprouting up six inches in a summer. “Doc, I’m confused.” He paused. “I’m having these new, strange feelings. Sometimes I can’t control my emotions.”

“Well Jonny, you know at a certain point in a boys life things start to…change.”

“Its not just that stuff, Doc. So much has changed in the last two years, I’m not the same person.”

“Yeah, you’ve had to deal with a lot. You’ve shown tremendous strength. Someday, I might even see you taking over for me, here at the Clinic.”

“Really? Gee, you think so?”

“Well, you’ve got a lot to learn. You’re still making a lot of mistakes, but I think you’ve got the ability. Now its just time you buckle down and show it, consistently.”

“Thanks, Doc. You know how much that means to kids like me. Everyone in this town looks up to you.”

The two strolled into the waiting room, all smiles. The young man’s long strides outpaced the grizzled old doctor and his three day beard. The doctor glanced up at the boy’s mother, an old flame from high school. He winked; she still looked as good as she did thirty years ago.

“Jonny, as far as I’m concerned, you’ve just made a giant step in the right direction.”
_____________

In what was the best game of the young 2008 season, the Red Sox were somehow able to nip Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays behind a stellar performance by Jon Lester. He walked four, but only gave up one hit in his 8 IP, 97 pitch performance.  His fastballs were on the black and he moved from inside to outside corner routinely.  In the face of a dominant Halladay, The kid stepped up in a game that could have easily been 3-0 Blue Jays, good night, thanks for coming, losing streak continues.

From the “anti-gamer” department, J.D. Drew left early with a “tight hamstring.” When my hamstring is tight, I STRETCH IT OUT. Bam, ready to go. I’ve been unbelievably patient with J.D., but to leave a game your team desperately wants to win due to a precautionary hamstring concern demonstrates a critical difference in philosophy. Would Dustin Pedroia have left that game early? Nope, he was in there, flashin’ the leather and swingin’ for the fences like usual. I’ll eat my words if there’s a serious concern, but if he’s back in there tonight I’ll roll my eyes and chalk it up to the perils of signing a player known more for his demeanor than talent.

Tonight, Dustin McGowan faces Daisuke Matsuzaka. Expectations are high for McGowan, and he’s been a disappointment thus far, walking 16 and allowing 32 hits in 28 innings. He’s got the high nineties fastball and more importantly, the best/worst facial hair in the game. Who knew Chester A. Arthur threw gas?

As we careen towards the end of April and observe a sample of roughly 30 MLB games, we have some interesting seasons in progress. The samples are small enough to yield some quirky results, but large enough to be somewhat significant.

Obviously, this idea was spurred by watching Eric Hinske, who has gone from black hole of ineptitude on the Boston bench to one of the top few hitters in the American League in Tampa Bay.

Eric…cut the shit, OK?

Let’s take a look at a few other surprises in the stats categories during this cold, miserable off-day.

Carlos Quentin: The White Sox outfielder was terrible last year while playing for Arizona, although he was only 24 at the time and had a ton of promise. Typically, people do not come from the NL to the AL and drastically improve. However, that is exactly what we are seeing, as Quientin is tied for second in the league in OPS+, a year after his pitiful .214/.298/.349 season.

Chipper Jones: Someone forgot to remind the future Hall of Famer in Atlanta that players are supposed to suck as they get older. Amazingly, Chipper has gradually improved in each of the past 5 years, from ages 32-36. We expect decent numbers from Chipper, but right now he is the best hitter in baseball (.433/.480/.711), outhitting Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and everyone else. He’ll obviously come down to earth pretty sharply, but this start needs to be documented.

David Ortiz: .177/.288/.323. Lots of double plays, lots of frustration. I’d love to say he’ll eventually revert to MVP-level Big Papi, but hitters his size don’t have the best track record of longevity. The DH, probably baseball’s best hitter last season, could be playing hurt.

Robinson Cano: The biggest disappointment in baseball thus far, as the All Star 2B has a microscopic OPS+ of 20. New York is counting on Hollywood Cano to become a premiere top-of-the-order type of hitter, and right now he might be the worst regular in baseball. The combined batting average of Johan Santana and Danny Haren, two pitchers who are new to the NL, are better than Cano’s (.160 vs .158) as of today.

Barry Zito: The big money pitcher is doing his best to help the San Francisco Giants have a historically bad season. With their minor league offense, they need all the help they can get from the pitching staff, and their most expensive pitcher leads the league in earned runs and losses. I find it hilarious that Brian Sabean is still receiving paychecks from this organization. Imagine yourself filling 1,000 manila envelopes with fresh horse shit, and mailing them to the shareholders of your company. This is the corporate equivalent of the Zito contract.

Cliff Lee: A year after struggling with a 6.29 ERA, the Indians left-hander has pitched in 4 games and won all 4, with a K/BB ratio of 29/2. He has averaged about 8 innings per start, and has only given up 1 earned run on the season. His current ERA+ is 1527. That’s not a typo, it’s not 152 or 157 or 127. It is 1527. His ERA+ is higher than our high school valedictorian’s SAT score. Eventually, someone will remind ol’ Cliff that he is not Rube Waddell, and he will plummet back to reality. In the meantime, enjoy this while it lasts.

Justin Verlander / C.C. Sabathia: Everyone and their mothers picked one of these two guys to win the 2008 AL Cy Young Award. Currently, both pitchers are polluting Lake Erie with their sub-par pitching, as they are 3rd and 1st respectively in earned runs.

Small sample sizes, yadda yadda yadda, but the 1 month mark in the MLB season is essentially the point at which small samples begin to become meaningful. It will be interesting to take another peak at each of these guys in July, to see how far they have regressed towards the mean.

Irwin
Ir - win
Inrwined, Irwining
-verb (used with object)

1. To be unexpectedly killed by a fish in the ray family of fishes.
The unfortunate man was Irwined by a stingray while diving off the coast of Key Largo.

2. To be swept in a three game series against the lowly Tampa Bay Rays.
The Red Sox were hitting like the Rockford Peaches, and were Irwined for the first time in history today.

The Great Influenza of 2008 claimed two more victims last night, as pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka (who was scheduled to start) and Manny Delcarmen are currently in a quarantined lab, getting hosed down by Rene Russo. Lucky bastards.

Jon Lester started last night’s game instead of Dice-K, and had trouble missing bats, yielding 9 hits in 5 innings, while only striking out 1. Newly recalled Craig Hansen gave up the eventual losing run, but at least looked good doing it.

The big news, however, is the kid taking Matsuzaka’s place in the rotation: prospect Justin Masterson. Masterson has been dominant in 19 innings in AA, giving up only 2 runs on 14 hits while striking out 23. He’ll face the Angels’ Joe Saunders, who is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA.

UPDATE: I had to edit the title, as today is a DAY game (1:35 PM).  Turn on those radios, re-up that subscription to MLB.com audio, and for you jobless freeloaders, you worthless lampreys of society…enjoy.  Let me know how he looks.

Red Sox management continued its obsessive protection of Josh Beckett on Tuesday, scratching him twice with different minor ailments.  First, it looked like he might not go because of the flu.  Ultimately, a stiff neck was to blame.  The paranoia may be unfounded, but it can’t be faulted.  The worst case scenario is a few of Beckett’s innings are replaced by someone less able.  On Tuesday, that was David Pauley.

In the first two frames, Pauley recorded four weak ground outs, a lazy fly to center and a strikeout.  Things went downhill from there.  The bottom of the Angels lineup began its dominance in the third with a string of walks and hits led by Jeff Mathis.  The battle for playing time behind the plate in Anaheim has reached a tipping point.  Mathis continued to strengthen his case to split time with Mike Napoli with his two hit, two run, three RBI night.   Mathis is hitting .379/.387/.759, compared to Napoli’s .227/.292/.523.  Mike Scioscia may often be guilty of over-managing, but his catching platoon appears to be working beautifully.

A pair of homers and a timely drag bunt single from Jacoby Ellbury were the key to the Red Sox victory.  The kid has made his case, he needs to be in the lineup daily.  It was another step in the right direction by Julio Lugo, who is apparently feeling the hot breath of Jed Lowrie on his neck.  He’s up to .324 on the season.  Julian Tavarez’s 1.2 scoreless innings to bridge the gap to Okajima can’t be overstated.  Love him or hate him, Tavarez steps up in unlikely scenarios.

Tonight, Daisuke Matsuzaka faces Jon Garland.  Manny may get to 500 dingers in a hurry, because he’s got three in only twenty-one at-bats versus Garland.  In all, he’s sporting a mere 1.738 OPS against the veteran righty.  Combined with the way Manny is swinging the bat, I hope Garland’s got his neck stretched out.