Category: General

Pitchers are MVP-Eligible Again? Good to Know.

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By , 11/21/2011 2:52 pm

I’m fine with the Verlander choice.

I personally would have voted for Jacoby Ellsbury, who was elite in just about every facet of the game this year. I think if Jonathan Papelbon could have thrown one more strike in Baltimore and if Scrubby McScrubbington could have thrown one more strike in Tampa Bay, then Ellsbury would be your MVP today.

Let’s face it, Verlander basically had a Clemens-On-Steroids year (to clarify: I’m not saying that Verlander was on steroids, I’m saying that he pitched like Roger Clemens did while Clemens was on the needle in Toronto), he won the Triple Crown, and his team won the division. This was all extremely impressive.

But, today’s announcement stings a bit. Not because Ellsbury was screwed, but because of the injustice that occurred back in 1999.

Replacing Cinco Ocho: Time to Get Creative

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By , 11/15/2011 10:57 am

As the departure of bullpen ace Jonathan Papelbon leaves a glaring hole in an already-unstable bullpen, the Red Sox will now need to find an impact arm or two to fill his absence.

There are some direct way to go about doing this, such as offer a large contract to a notable MLB closer such as Ryan Madson (the guy who Papelbon is replacing in Philadelphia). However, as we’ve seen with Papelbon’s new contract, pitchers with an established reputation as a closer will demand top dollar in this free-agent market. Let’s face it, teams aren’t just paying for the numbers, they are paying for the “bulldog mentality” or whatever intangibles are supposedly inherent in a guy who can finish close baseball games on a nightly basis. The magnitude of impact that these intangibles have on performance (assuming they even exist) is quite debatable, which leads me to believe that this may be an area where a more savvy GM can save a bit of coin without sacrificing too much in terms of actual talent.

I’ve always been a strong supporter of two types of moves:

  1. Acquiring a middle reliever with good peripheral numbers but little/no closer experience.
  2. Attempting to convert an inconsistent starting pitcher with good “stuff” into a reliever.
Today, I’ll touch on the second option, a move which I think takes a bit more creativity and courage from the front office. One of the things that makes the conversion difficult is the simple fact that most pitchers would rather be a starter than a reliever, and you can’t really blame them for that. In most cases, from Little League on, the better pitchers will usually be starters.  Starters get more playing time, more limelight, and once you hit the pros, typically more money.

Considering this barrier, the type of pitcher we are looking for is a guy who isn’t a hot commodity in the starter market. A back-end starter, someone who isn’t heading for a $12 million a year deal anytime soon. Someone who is probably close to or over the age of 30, since teams are generally loath to give up on young pitchers with upside. Someone who has had potential, a plus pitch or two, decent peripheral numbers, but has struggled for some reason.   (Ideally, the reason isn’t “inability to throw strikes”, as this would make the pitcher an unattractive option for high-leverage situations).

Just to summarize some of the qualities we are looking out for here:
  • Availability: a free agent or someone who might be deemed expendable\
  • Inconsistency as a starter: while it would be nice to hire Roy Oswalt as your closer, it’s not going to happen.
  • Decent K rate: someone who strikes guys out will have more success than someone who doesn’t, all else being equal
  • Decent GB%: if you don’t get a strikeout, a routine ground ball is the next best thing
  • Good stuff:  fastball velocity, accuracy/effectiveness of breaking pitches. Year-to-year trends are important here
  • Early-inning success: a starter who comes out of the gate strong might be better suited to one-inning appearances
  • ERA – FIP: While ERA is sort of the industry-wide accepted barometer for pitching success, FIP is actually a better indicator. Someone with a high ERA but a lower FIP is typically going to be undervalued by the market
With the exception of “availability” and “inconsistency as a starter”, not all of the above traits are necessary. However, it would help to find someone with at least a few. Now that we have a rough set of guidelines out of the way, we can look around to see if anyone might be a fit.

I will update this later on with some ideas.

 

 

 

Scutaro to Return in 2012

By , 10/31/2011 9:14 am

The solid play of Marco Scutaro in 2011 made it a certainty that the Red Sox would pick up his $6 million option for 2012. The decision is made even easier by Jed Lowrie’s inability to stay healthy, as well as Jose Iglesias’ inability to hit AAA pitching.  While the latter might change, it doesn’t seem like the former ever will, and Lowrie will always be a “10th man” type of player.

Keeping in mind the fact that Scutaro celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday, the Sox will need to brace themselves for the inevitable plummit in productivity which may or may not occur next season.  The easy approach would be to use a loose RHP/LHP platoon with Lowrie, who hits left-hand pitching very well.  A more bold approach would be to kick the tires on free-agent superstar Jose Reyes, shop Lowrie, and use Scutaro as a utility infielder. This, of course, is less likely.

Other notes:

  • In relation to my Reyes note above, the worst possible effect of the John Lackey / Carl Crawford contracts would be Red Sox management and ownership becoming irrationally gun shy on the free agent market. Even ignoring the strong possibility that Crawford turns things around next season, there have been many, many success stories resulting from teams taking on long-term risk in free agency. Consider where the Yankees would have been without C.C. Sabathia over the past few years, or the Cardinals without Matt Holliday. Or, the 2004-2007 Red Sox without one Manuel Aristides Ramirez.  We can only hope that Ben Cherington isn’t the reactionary type.
  • The Sox begin interviewing candidates for the manager role today, starting with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin. My early wager is on DeMarlo Hale being promoted internally, but I suppose a lot of that will depend on the scope of the political fallout (if any) from Terry Francona’s departure.

TJ Surgery for Lackey

By , 10/25/2011 4:20 pm

Brand new Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington just now confirmed a rumor that had been floating around this morning: troubled pitcher John Lackey will indeed undergo Tommy John surgery. Recovery is typically 12-16 months, which means he will miss the entire 2012 season.

From looking at his track record over the course of the last several years, it’s pretty clear that his durability and effectiveness have both been steadily deteriorating, at a relatively young age. He has had bouts of elbow discomfort in the past, so the TJS news isn’t exactly a bombshell.

I’m not happy with his 2011 performance, but I’m also not very comfortable with the way he’s treated here.  From Bob Stanley, to Jose Offerman, to Julio Lugo, and now Lackey…the angry mob mentality displayed by most of the fan base just isn’t my cup of tea.

Here’s hoping for a year of tranquility.

Going Back to Cali: Curt Young Returns to Oakland

By , 10/21/2011 12:57 pm

Pitching coach Curt Young is the latest staff member to grab the nearest unoccupied escape pod and blast his way to safety. Young, who I was very optimistic about when the Sox initially hired him last Novermber,  returns to his previous job in Oakland.

While the Red Sox clearly have their problems, the Oakland A’s have not had a winning season in 5 years.  I guess, sometimes, the low-hanging fruit tastes pretty sweet.

 

How Times Have Changed

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By , 10/19/2011 9:08 am

2004:  ”Oh look, they were drinking Jack Daniels and eating KFC!  LOL!  What a bunch of blue collar dirt dogs!  Look at them taking shots together. What great chemistry! This really was a team of destiny!”

2011: “Oh my God, they were drinking beer and eating Popeye’s! How DARE they disrespect the game like that!  They clearly lost all of their desire to win! I want a full investigation into this!  WHY WON’T ANYBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN?!”

The point is: as always, it’s all about winning. Public opinion will be framed around the on-field result. Kevin Millar could have passed around a spoonful of black tar heroin during the 2004 ALCS, and the media would have found a positive spin on it.

Interestingly enough, in both 2004 and 2011, the team was one strike away from a very, very different media narrative.

Some other thoughts on BeerGate:

  • I felt a little better about the situation when I heard that the Lester/Beckett/Lackey trio was drinking Bud Light. These guys weigh 250 lbs, they would have to drink a gallon of that swill to feel any sort of impairment. If anything, it quenched their thirst.
  • A lot of people are more outraged over the rumor that the pitchers might have been drinking in the dugout, as opposed to the clubhouse. But really, why does it matter? The situation is the same: drinking during a game in which they were not scheduled to pitch. Is the dugout somehow more sacred than the clubhouse?  It certainly doesn’t look like it, with all of the sunflower seeds and tobacco spit on the floor.
  • It appears that everyone is assuming Larry Lucchino leaked this story, but I don’t buy it. If there’s one thing Lucchino is not, it’s stupid. He wouldn’t create this sort of shitstorm over his own organization. My guess is that the source is much lower in paygrade, someone you’ve probably never heard of. A middle-management type, or perhaps even a clubhouse employee.
  • The one thing that I am a tad outraged over is that it appears that (according to Jon Lester’s rundown on the situation) some of the team was treating Terry Francona like the blind substitute teacher in a 6th grade social studies class. Just walking all over him with little regard to authority. Francona has always had a laissez-faire style of leadership, but it seems as if some of the players were taking advantage of that.

The Exodus Continues: Theo Epstein Leaves for Chicago

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By , 10/12/2011 9:15 am

According to NBC Sports, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has agreed to a $15 million deal with the Chicago Cubs.

Can’t say I really blame him. The bar is set pretty low at Wrigley Field.

It would have been nice if he didn’t enter in to a bunch of high-risk long-term contracts in the two years prior to his exodus.  In the often-used Titanic analogy, this would be the equivalent of the captain jumping ship immediately after hitting the iceberg, and boarding a smaller, lesser-known ship.

No Words

By , 9/29/2011 6:23 am

What I would typically do at this point is write up an in-depth postmortem analysis on the season. However, my heart isn’t in it right now. The newspaper guys and talk-radio knuckleheads are surely reveling in the evens of past month, as it allows them to easily build narratives that capture the attention of the tortured locals. I won’t be one of them.

It would best for my mental health if I avoided all American sports media for a while. No big deal…I did it in 2003; it wasn’t so hard. Little things become a more difficult, such as going to the gym (they always have ESPN blasting on huge plasma screens), or engaging in the usual morning small-talk at work. After a while the hysteria dies away, and you can return to normalcy.

For now, I’m just staring blankly at my now-worthless ALDS tickets, trying to decide if I should burn them or save them as some sort of sick, demented piece of memorabilia.

I can’t quite decide.

Salvaging Some Hope

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By , 9/26/2011 9:26 am

9/13/11: Red Sox 7, Yankees 4

Box Score

When I tuned into the radio this morning, there was a lot of discussion on John Lackey, none of which had to do with anything he did on the field (in case you were wondering, he had a quality start, the first by a Red Sox pitcher in nearly two weeks). Apparently,  in his post-game interview, he complained about some paparazzi website harassing him about blah-blah-blah, and now the media are having a feeding frenzy on him.

You won’t find any of that here. Look, I’ve hated watching Lackey pitch this year. But what I hate more, exponentially more, is the whole pop culture atmosphere that exists today. Reality TV, gossip columns, all of that stuff is a scourge on Western society. (Wow, do I sound like a bitter old man!)

I can’t really blame the website that contacted Lackey, because they were just producing a product that is in high-demand: schadenfreude. Basically, what you are seeing is someone going through a horrible situation, and the general public reveling in it like a pig rolling around in its own waste. Welcome to 21st century America.

Key Players:

  • Hero of the Game: Jonathan Papelbon (2.1 perfect innings, 4 Ks, 48.0% WPA)
  • Goat of the Game: Scott Proctor (gave up a 3-run HR in the 14th inning, -51.3% WPA)
It might come as a surprise that Jacoby Ellsbury doesn’t get the hero tag with his game-winning 3-run blast in the 14th inning, but 1) Papelbon’s excellent performance included a huge K after Daniel Bard left the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th, and 2) Ellsbury had some bad at-bats earlier in the game that detracted from his overall WPA.
Top 3 Plays:
  1. Jacoby Ellsbury hits a 3-run HR with 2 outs in the top of the 14th inning. (45.8% WPA)
  2. Jonothan Papelbon strikes out AUstin Romine with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th  (16.8% WPA).
  3. Jason Varitek hits a go-ahead RBI single with 1 out in the 7th (14.6% WPA).
Quote of the Day:

“Time to grind and shine. If you don’t like this, you don’t have blood going through your veins. Right? If you don’t like this, if you’re not going to play tired, if you’re not going to play hurt, and you’re in this clubhouse, you ain’t got blood running through your veins.”

- Jonathan Papelbon


Fun With Headlines

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By , 9/25/2011 10:07 am

It’s always interesting to see how certain events are framed by the writers over at Redsox.com (the team’s official website). For example, after getting crushed by the Yankees 9-1 and having their best starter chased from the game in the 3rd inning, we click on the team website and see this:

Lester off as Red Sox’s progress stalls

Yes, that’s it. Their “progress” has “stalled”.  Just to recap, the “progress” includes going 5 and 17 in September, losing 6 out of their last 7, and setting up quite possibly the worst regular season choke in baseball history.

 

Sox on Verge of Making History (not in a good way)

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By , 9/19/2011 8:14 am

Per Buster Olney’s Twitter this morning:

 Elias (Sports Bureau): largest September deficit any team has overcome was 8 1/2 games,by the ’64 Cardinals. The Rays were nine games behind Boston Sept. 2.

There you have it. With 10 games left on the schedule, if the Red Sox manage to blow this 2-game Wild Card lead to Tampa Bay, it will be the worst choke in regular season history.

For what it’s worth, both Baseball Prospectus and Cool Standings give the Sox a solid ~90% probability of holding their lead. Honestly, does anyone actually take comfort in those figures?

The Eighth Time’s a Charm: Wake Notches Elusive Win #200

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By , 9/14/2011 10:28 am

9/13/11: Red Sox 18, Blue Jays 6

Box Score

If you were to analyze the pool of baseball fans in America, at both ends of the spectrum you’d notice two extremes: the old school fan who shuns statistics and relies more on intuition and first-hand experiences, and the quantitative SABR type who embraces statistics and scoffs at the gut feeling approach to baseball analysis. I probably lean towards the latter. However, there’s one thing that the SABR extremists sometimes fail to recognize: sometimes it’s OK to be irrationally sentimental. After all, we’re spending our time obsessing over men who are paid vast fortunes to hit leather balls with wooden sticks, which is a very irrational act in itself.

Therefore, I think it’s OK to throw some props towards Tim Wakefield this morning. We don’t have to pretend that he’s having a good year, or that he pitched well last night, or that the win statistic is very meaningful. For better or for worse, milestones like this one are meaningful to most observers, and that alone makes them important.

Key Players:

  • Hero of the Game: Dustin Pedroia (4 for 5, 2 HRs, 4 runs, 5 RBI, 29.5% WPA)
  • Goat of the Game: Brandon Morrow (5 runs allowed in 5.1 innings, -41.9% WPA)
I was in attendance last night, and I can tell you that both of Pedroia’s home runs were the type of shots that earned him the nickname “Laser Show”; scorching shots that left the park in an instant.
Top 3 Plays:
  1. With the bases loaded and two outs in the 1st, Toronto first baseman David Cooper scoops up a routine grounder hit by Josh Reddick, and air-mails the ball over the pitcher covering first. Two runs score on the error. (16.0% WPA)
  2. Jacoby Ellsbury hits a solo HR with 2 outs in the 4th (12.9% WPA).
  3. Dustin Pedroia immediately follows Ellsbury’s HR with one of his own (12.7% WPA).
Quote of the Day:

“Panic is unbecoming.”

- Larry Lucchino, Red Sox CEO


Tazawa Returns to the Bigs

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By , 9/13/2011 9:21 am

According to WEEI.com (despite their dreadful radio product, the blog is quite nice), Junichi Tazawa will be added to Boston’s expanded roster today, marking his return to the Major Leagues after 2-years of recovery from Tommy John surgery.

The Red Sox pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and ineffectiveness at a time where they really can’t afford it, so Tazawa’s call-up isn’t at all a ceremonial “let’s throw him a bone and give him a few garbage innings” gesture; it’s all hands on deck. In a few small sample of innings in Pawtucket (all in relief), Tazawa was very effective, striking out 19 hitters in 14.1 innings including a .160 batting average against left-handed hitters.

I’m guessing his usage will be in soft of a hybrid LOOGY/long relief role, where he could come in to face one hitter, or he could mop up for someone like Lackey if he shits the bed in the 3rd inning.

Other notes:

  • Manny Ramirez continues to piss all over his legacy. Brick by brick, he’s dismantling the whole goofy teddy bear image, and replacing it with that of a unrepentant asshole.
  • Old friend Mike Cameron was released by the Marlins, and may retire. He was actually playing fairly well for Florida, but it seems the move was more about arithmetic than it was performance.

Sox Put Seattle to Sleep

By , 7/25/2011 8:22 am

7/24/11: Red Sox 12, Mariners 8

Box Score

My apologies again for yet another prolonged absence. Yes, I realize that I’ve been making that same apology quite a bit lately. Without trying to sound too much like the aggressor in a domestic dispute: I promise it won’t happen again.

I’m going to change the WPA section a bit. Instead of listing the top 5 players in total WPA for each game, I’m going to list 1) the player with the highest WPA, 2) the player with the lowest WPA, and 3) the top three plays of the game.

Highlights:

Hero of the Game: Kevin Youkilis (1 for 3, HR, BB, 2 R)
Goat of the Game: Michael Pineda (4.1 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 ER)

Top 3 Plays:
1) Youk’s 2-run HR in the 1st inning (.165 WPA)
2) Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s RBI single in the 1st inning (.131 WPA)
3) Salty throwing out Ichiro in the 5th (.083 WPA)

Quote of the Day:

 ”Days like this, the way guys are playing — it’s definitely what we signed up for.”

- Carl Crawford

Prospect Watch:

AA: OF/DH Chih-Hsien Chiang continues to tear a hole through Eastern League pitching, going 2 for 3 with 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored yesterday. He has a 1.357 OPS in his last 10 games, and 1.043 on the year.
SS A: In the bad news department, Garin Cecchini, a high-ceiling prospect who was having an impressive pro debut in Lowell, was hit by a pitch and suffered a broken wrist.  His 2011 season is most likely done.

Debunking a Common Myth

By , 7/11/2011 8:33 am

Just wanted to briefly point something out.

One complaint I’ve been hearing about recently is: “there are too many All-Stars”. Yes, the roster tends to grow due to injury replacements and pitchers who are unable to participate for scheduling reasons.  As of this moment, there are 84 2011 All-Stars, which admittedly seems like a large number.

However, here’s something to consider: in 1933 (the very first official MLB All-Star game) there were 36 All-Stars.  You can see them here, in case you are curious.  Now, remember, there were only 16 teams back then.  Also, each team had about 16 regular players: 8 hitters, no DH, 4 starters, and 4 regularly-used relievers. So, with a total of around 250-260 regular players, you could say that roughly 14% of those players were All-Stars.

Now, fast forward to today.  We have 30 teams, 14 of which use 9 regular hitters and the other 16 use 8.  There are also 5 rotation spots, and 6 frequently-used relief spots (this varies from team to team, of course). So, we’ll say that there are 585 regularly used roster spots in the modern game.  With 84 All-Stars, this comes out to…you guessed it.  Roughly 14%.

So, when you hear someone complaining about the huge amount of 2011 All-Stars, you can now politely inform them that the “founding fathers” of the All-Star Game would be just fine with the roster sizes.  Now, I’m not sure how they’d feel about the whole home field advantage in the World Series thing, but that’s another story.

Whiskey – Tango – Foxtrot: Another Pitcher Down

By , 7/6/2011 8:55 am

7/6/11: Red Sox 3, Blue Jays 2

Box Score

The Red Sox managed a dramatic win last night, yet this game could be one of the most costly of the season. Jon Lester, the ace of the staff, left the game prematurely after throwing four no-hit innings against the Blue Jays. The diagnosis is a strained latissimus (“lat”), and he will be further evaluated today to determine the extent of the injury.

Early indications are that it shouldn’t be a long term issue, and with the All-Star Break looming next week, Lester would only miss two starts if he were to be placed on the DL. Still, that’s two Alfredo Aceves starts too many, as far as I’m concerned.

Top 5 Performances:

Player WPA Notes
J Lester 20.9% four no-hit innings
M Albers 10.5% 2 scoreless innings of emergency relief
J Drew 7.4% 1 for 3, RBI, BB
D Ortiz 6.3% 1 for 3, 2B, R, BB
F Morales 5.3% perfect 7th

Of course, the key defensive play (not acknowledged by WPA) needs to be mentioned: Darnell McDonald gunning down the potential tying run to win the game, with Jason Varitek masterfully blocking the plate.

Quote of the Day

“We heard the phone ring right after the top of the fourth and kind of had a feeling that it probably wasn’t good.”

- Reliever Matt Albers, on the unexpectedly early bullpen call

Prospect Watch

Note: three minor league affiliates played double-headers yesterday (Pawtucket, Portland, and Lowell).

  • AAA – Catcher Ryan Lavarnway went 3 for 4 with 2 doubles in the nightcap, and is having no trouble adjusting to AAA competition, hitting .338/.418/.613 after 21 games.
  • AAWill Middlebrooks went a combined 7 for 9 in both games, including a home run.  He’s hitting .320/.366/.509 for Portland this year.
  • R – Here’s a new name to keep an eye on: 18-year-old pitcher Raul Alcantara threw 6 no-hit innings, and has only allowed 2 hits in 16 innings in the Gulf Coast League this year. Soxprospects.com notes that his fastball is in the low 90′s, and can get up to 95 MPH.

 

 

2011 Dewey’s House MLB All-Stars

By , 7/5/2011 10:12 am

Now that the actual MLB All-Star rosters have been constructed, it’s time to do what every other baseball fan with spare times does at this point: pedantically critique the selections and offer our own unsolicited opinion on the matter.

Here are my 2011 All-Star rosters:

The names in blue are players I selected, but were left off of the real All-Star teams.  The names in grey are the final omissions from my All-Star squads, names that I had difficulty leaving out.  I did adhere to the mandatory representative rule, so every MLB team has an All-Star amongst my selections.

Now, let’s take a look at the scrubs; the guys who don’t deserve to be going to Phoenix for this year’s Mid-Summer Classic:

American League Scrubs:

1) Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees
No commentary is really needed.  It’s been said thousands of times before.  Jeter is a living, breathing example of a flawed system.  If he really did “respect the game” or whatever, he would gracefully bow out and allow a more deserving player to take in the festivities (there are about 5 other shortstops who fit this description).

2) Jose Valverde, RP, Tigers
In modern-day baseball, as a general rule, closers tend to be overrated and middle-relievers tend to be underrated.  The All-Star game is an annual reminder of this.  Jose Valverde averages 5 walks per 9 innings, and is the third-best reliever on his own team.  I could probably find at least 20 other relief pitchers in the American League who I’d rather call upon in a close situation.

3) Michael Young, DH, Rangers
I guess I just don’t understand the logic of choosing an actual DH to be the “backup DH” on your team, unless that DH happens to be the best hitter available for the spot (Young isn’t). I’d much rather have seen Konerko in this role.

National League Scrubs:

1) Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
The Jeter selection is almost understandable, because he was chosen by idiots.  You don’t blame a dog for shitting in your yard, you just grab a plastic bag and deal with it.  This, however, is ridiculous.  An actual baseball person selected Chipper Jones to be an All-Star, in a year where he is one of the most unproductive third basemen in the league.  Yes, he’s a future Hall of Famer.  Yes, he deserves recognition for his play over the past 18 years.  But, this isn’t the proper forum for that.

2)  Jonny Venters, RP, Braves
Yeah, an ironic choice, given what I wrote about Jose Valverde.  Venters is a middle reliever who was chosen instead of the closer on his own team (Kimbrel) who is having a much more dominant season.  It looks like the selection was based upon ERA, and not much else.

3) Brian Wilson, RP, Giants
He’s a MLB poster boy, and he’ll probably go to a few more All-Star Games before his career is over, but 2011 hasn’t been a standout year for him.  There are a bunch of other more deserving pitchers.

MLB Power Rankings Updated

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By , 6/27/2011 10:33 am

It was long overdue, but I’ve finally updated the MLB Power Rankings.  Suffice it to say, the Red Sox are no longer 12th (but they’re not 1st, either.)

Click the link at the top of the page, or click here.

Sox Lead a Parade Around the Bases

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By , 6/20/2011 8:38 am

6/19/11: Red Sox 12, Brewers 3

Box Score

The Ageless Wonder once again turned in a stunning performance, allowing only 5 base runners over the course of 8 strong innings.  Unlike most Tim Wakefield starts of late, he was treated with plenty of run support against Milwaukee, as 8 of their 14 hits were for extra bases.

Top 5 Heroes:

Player WPA Notes
J Ellsbury 13.2% 2 for 5 with a double, 2 RBI, 1 run
T Wakefield 10.8% 8 strong innings
K Youkilis 10.6% 3-run HR in the 1st inning
D Pedroia 7.8% 3 for 4 with a HR, 2 RBI, 2 runs
A Gonzalez 7.6% 2 for 5 with a triple (!), 2 RBI, 2 runs

Note the abnormally low WPAs (the entire team added up to around 50%).  You’ll see this when the game gets out of hand early, as it did yesterday afternoon.  Once the bottom of the first inning had ended as the score was 6-0, the probability of the Red Sox winning was over 90%.  Everything else that occurred in the game, such as Pedroia’s 6th inning HR, wouldn’t have much of an impact on win probability.

This is one of the strengths of WPA, as a metric.  It distinguishes the important plays from the ones that occur in garbage time.

Buzz Kill:

Clay Buchholz (back) and Carl Crawford (hamstring) are both on the disabled list, and both hope to return during the series in their home state, at Houston.  I talked about Buchholz, but the Crawford situation is just as troubling, if not more.  Speed is, of course, a big part of Crawford’s game.  If hamstring problems become chronic for him as he ages,   the Red Sox will be stuck with a very expensive, very mediocre outfielder.

Quote of the Day:

“It had good movement on it. Some of them went in to right-handers, some of them went in to left-handers. It did what good knuckleballs do. It was frustrating.”

- Milwaukee 1B Prince Fielder, on the knuckleball

By the way, if you’re wondering whether or not Wakefield ever faced Prince’s dad, Cecil Fielder…he did.  30 times.  Like father, like son; Cecil hit .111/.200/.148 against Wakefield.

Prospect Watch:

  • SS A – The short-season Lowell Spinners started their 2011 campaign over the weekend, and there are a couple of interesting players up in the Cradle of the Industrial Revolution.  The one that stands out, however, is third baseman Garin Cecchini, who is regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in the system.  In his debut on Friday, he went 2 for 4 with a double and a SB.
  • R – The Gulf Coast League Red Sox begin play today.  This is where you’ll see a few of the high school draftees and the prospects who graduated from the Dominican Summer League.  Two names jump of the page right now: shortstop Jose Vinicio and outfielder Kendrick Perkins.

6/16/11: Red Sox 4, Rays 2

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By , 6/17/2011 8:36 am

Buchholz Wins, But Gets Hurt

Box Score

In isolation, last night’s result was beautiful; the Red Sox beat Tampa Bay ace David Price to finish their road trip with an 8-1 record.  However, Clay Buchholz was once again curtailed by lower-back pains, a chronic issue that has been hampering him since last season.

It’s certainly a red flag given how frail this rotation currently is, with the exception of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.  With a ground ball rate of 51% (almost exactly what it was last season) and a K-rate that is slightly improved from last season, Buchholz has been displaying the stuff and command that put him in contention for the Cy Young Award in 2010.  It would hurt to have that type of run prevention replaced by the likes of Alfredo Aceves for any prolonged period of time.

Top 5 Heroes

Player WPA Notes
D Bard 18.2% 1.1 perfect innings, only 15 pitches thrown
C Buchholz 18.1% 5 innings, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K
A Gonzalez 17.9% 2 for 3, 2 BB, coffin nail HR in 9th
J Papelbon 8.0% scoreless 9th for the save (not without drama)
D Ortiz 7.3% 0 for 2, 2 BB, RBI

Buzz Kill

Clay’s back is the obvious one, but he wasn’t the only one forced out of the game due to injuries.  Jed Lowrie, whose recent struggles have been documented here, was a late scratch due to the shoulder that’s been bothering him since May.  It was also kind of a bummer to see Carl Crawford go 1 for 10 in his return to The Trop.

Quote of the Day

“It was a good road trip. We started the road trip in second place and finished it in first place. Any time you can do that, that’s a good thing.”

- Adrian Gonzalez

Prospect Watch

  • High A – Pitcher Junichi Tazawa threw 3 rehab innings, giving up 2 hits and striking out 2.  Also, Kolbrin Vitek, who has cooled down considerably since his torrid April, went 2 for 5 with a double.
  • Low A – Shortstop Xander Bogaerts again had a good day for himself, going 2 for 4 with a double.  Also, 21-year-old lefty Manny Rivera pitched 6 scoreless innings, and now has 74 Ks in 69.2 innings.

 

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