Steve Phillips is right, but he has no idea why. If you can stand watching an ESPN broadcast with the sound on, and really, the unintentional comedy of listening to Dan Shulman corral the two knuckleheads locked in that booth with him is reason enough, you’ve heard Phillips’ latest tirade. “Major League Baseball is on pace for one THOUSAND less home runs than in 2006.” Or something vaguely familiar and more convoluted than that.

Amateur economists like to quote a famous economist that once said “there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Phillips’ filibuster on home run totals looks like some guy trying to create misleading statistical evidence. Why limit it to home runs? They aren’t the only measure of power and therefore, steroid use. Why use the entire season? Power is usually down in April and May as players adjust and power is sapped by cold weather and dense air. Why use a raw total? Generally there are more off days and rain outs in the cold northeast during April and May. If he was really trying to prove that power has declined he’d compare a rate stat over a similar time period.

As it turns out, he’s covered up the truth. Slugging was down in April, and by a large margin.

MLB SLG, April 2006: .430
MLB SLG, April 2008: .401

Thanks for dumbing it down Steve, maybe soon we’ll reach your level.

With two of baseball’s best offenses handicapped by injuries and slumping superstars, Phil Hughes and Daisuke Matsuzaka were victimized by patience and high pitch counts. The former didn’t get an out in the third, and the latter struggled mightily through five.  Matsuzaka was handed the big lead but couldn’t keep runners off base in the early innings. His fastball command was typically spotty, the difference Sunday was an inconsistent change-up. In his previous three starts he has relied on the change to lefties; without an out pitch he went to the curve more, with mixed results.

The back of the bullpen was unavailable, leading to tense middle innings and a tightrope act without a net. Mike Timlin didn’t retire a batter but was bailed out by Javy Lopez in the seventh. Lopez and David Aardsma were effective; early results on recent bullpen cuts suggest the right moves were made.

Turning to media watch, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan need to be led to pasture. If your job is announcing baseball games, it’s not acceptable to routinely get players’ names wrong. They’ve never offered thoughtful insight, but Sunday Night Baseball has become a tired repeat of the same stories over and over. Did we need a steroids/curse diatribe again? No, but we got them both.

Monday night, Jon Lester faces off against Jake Westbrook in Cleveland. Will David Ortiz be back in the lineup? Will his “mental health day” get him back on track?

This isn’t really a surprise. The FOX Network, in general, detracts from society. There are two redeeming qualities to FOX, both of which are cartoons aired on Sunday nights. The rest of the network is really just a podium for mongolism, and that includes their baseball coverage.

Anyway, for some background, Orioles pitcher Daniel Cabrera threw a 98 MPH fastball behind Dustin Pedroia’s head last night. The reason: he was frustrated that he is a terrible pitcher. That’s it. He was essentially playing the role of Baby Huey, a 6′9″ crybaby who can’t cope with his lack of skill.

Here is Kevin Kennedy’s take:

Kevin Kennedy: “Well, Coco Crisp shouldn’t be jockeying up and down the third base line. That’s why the guy got hit”.

Jeanne Zelasko: “Giggle!” (twirls hair)

First of all, Pedroia didn’t “get hit”. Cabrera missed him, expectedly. Daniel Cabrera has the worst control and poise in the major leagues, and it is no surprise that he, once again, missed his target.

Second, you’re justifying this? Wow. It’s really shocking that no MLB teams have called you with job offers in the past 12 years.

Like the tides and O.J. Simpson, the much publicized spat between Dan Shaughnessy and Curt Schilling is back, with a new wrinkle. In his game recap today, the usually steady Gordon Edes peppered his bleary-eyed effort with a quip regarding the latest Celtics news.

“They’d better have four balls,'’ Francona said, marveling at Reggie’s famous demolition of the Knicks at the feet of Spike Lee. Jerry Remy suggested that the Cooz was still available.

In my journey through the morning sports pages, I also stumbled across this jab at Ainge and the C’s:

First Tom Brady gets named best-dressed man in the world – an unspeakable shot at Bill Belichick, Larry Bird, and yours truly. Then we find out the Celtics are going after Reggie Miller as part of their back-to-the-future archaeological dig. Really now. Reggie Miller? The guy is almost 42. He’s a television analyst. Why not just see if Cooz wants to lace ‘em up one more time?

Shaughnessy managed to yet again work himself into a column, and was unknowingly called out by his fellow Globe writer for stealing a joke from Remy. Coincidence? I doubt it. If we can get Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman involved, this debate could rival stem-cell research, Lincoln-Douglas, and gay marriage combined.  I wonder which side Schilling takes; “no comment” isn’t in his vocabulary.

Its hard to say “must win” in April, but the Red Sox picked up a big one last night against the Blue Jays. A loss would have all but guaranteed a sweep with Julain Tavarez scheduled to duel Roy Halladay tonight.

Determining the ace of the Sox staff is difficult, with four pitchers at the top of their game this team should be better than 8-5. Clearly, a bum named Manny Ramirez is preventing dominance. The bats threw up a crooked number against Ervin Santana with ease, then were dominated by Gustavo Chacin? After a miserable start against old friend Tomo Ohka, I was preparing the gallows. For a moment (or an eternity), it looked like Timmeh was in for an excellent losing season on a winning team.

Ohka must take extra breaths between innings, because he didn’t waste any time with such trivialities when he was on the mound. A sharp contrast to the Yankee game, where Jeremy Sowers was terrified to throw the ball. It was difficult for me to get my thoughts on the page because the innings were flying by with no regard for this lowly blogger. At the top of the sixth in the Sox game, the Yanks and Indians were limping through a rainy third inning. Did I see that correctly? Matt Stairs, Frank Thomas, and Royce Clayton were all starting? Crank up the Delorean, Marty, and take me back to 2007.

The machinations by the mediots blaming Lugo’s defense and Daisuke’s performance in Tuesday night’s game are a load of hooey. I can say “hooey” on the internet, right? The botched DP led to a run, but this offense needs to score in bunches against the likes of Chacin. That was a team loss, and defense was far from the Red Sox only failure. Blame sells newspapers, so ostensibly Lugo and Daisuke are the the scapegoats; JD, take note and tread lightly.

Continuing his campaign to lead the league in ISO-power, Doug Mirabelli has as many homers as singles. Last night he provided all the offense, a solo shot and RBI single were enough. When are we going to see the much anticipated Mirabelli-Hinske chest-bump?

It’s time for Ortiz to begin employing the bunt a little more. The Sox don’t face Joe Maddon until July, but he’ll probably move Dioner Navarro to the left of the pitching mound if Ortiz lays down five straight bunts. You know Jerry Remy would wet himself. Speaking of the the RemDawg, The “vaaaaahhhse” line has gotten a little old. How much longer until Administrative Professional’s Day? Also, does that mean I have to get the temp at my office some chocolate or something? What’s the protocol here? Administrative Professional means “secretary,” right?

In the fifth, the knuckler was diving and dancing a bit too much, three straight walks loaded the bases but a timely strike out prevented any damage. The bottom of the depleted Jays’ offense figured Wake out in the seventh, Royce Clayton was driven in by John MacDonald after lacing a double to left. Brendan Donnelly came on to work the eighth, and with a three run lead, you know who’s coming out for the ninth.

If anyone had dreams of a more progressive (Bill James style) bullpen approach, last night was proof the Red Sox aren’t as smart as you. Papelbon was shaky, missing his spots repeatedly, but the gas was there and the win was preserved. Where does Terry turn if Papelbon is needed for six outs today? He should be used in the three-run save situation only preceding an off day, or Gustavo Chacin start.

Consistency has never been a strength for Wakefield, but his three starts in 2007 are very encouraging. Thanks for everything, Tim, past, present, and for the next one to infinity years.

Tonight: Tavarez at Halladay, Fausto Carmona (CLE) at Darrell Rasner (NYY)

Allow me to adjust my rose-colored glasses for a second.

As we approach Opening Day, practically every baseball-related website will be issuing their rankings and predictions for the 2007 season.  CBS Sportline is one of my personal favorite go-to websites for MLB analysis and news, and they issued their pre-season Power Rankings today. 

At #1 are the Boston Red Sox, closely followed by the Nyuk-Nyuks at #2.  Rounding out the top 5 are Detroit, the Mets, and Philly (the “east coast bias” camp should really appreciate this).

Of course, the other baseball heavyweights on the internet  (ESPN, CNNSI, Prospectus, ect…)  should be issuing their rankings soon, and could all disagree with the CBS ranking.

Still, it is somewhat refreshing to know that at least one high-profile site likes the Sox on paper, even with their question marks.

Boston Herald writer Karen Guregian thinks that the Sox problems would be resolved if they just had a big, heaping bowl of Kevin Millar to snack on.

There is no secret what Millar brings to the clubhouse. His wackiness and keep-it-loose-at-all-costs attitude gets a good amount of credit for the Red Sox coming back against the Yankees in 2004. I can’t speak to the truthiness of that…I wasn’t in the clubhouse, I am not a Major League baseball player, and I have a want to deal in the more tangible aspects of baseball. But right or wrong, Millar gets a bunch of credit for helping create that culture.

Often times though, I am annoyed by the spectre that follows him around. I always saw the idea of Millar being some sort of beneviolent svengali of clubhouses, bending the will of unlike teammates to work toward a common goal of winning baseball games and partyin’ on dude (!) as being more in the mind of the people around the team…with Millar himself being the chief snake oil salesman.

During his time here, the perception of Kevin Millar was that he was a happy clown. I mean, the Born in the USA lip synch from his younger days was worth it’s weight in laughter. But when you look deeper, so saw things like quotes from Terry Francona, saying that “One Millar is fine, but you couldn’t have a team of them”. You saw his skills diminishing, and then bitching about the possibility of him sitting more for other players (”El bencho”).

The worst thing about the Millar experience was that I never got the feeling he really knew his place in the cosmic order of the Red Sox. During 2005, he frequently talked up what he does for the ball club, mentioning his own intangibles, which is kind of like a college student reminding his parents about his 1280 SAT’s when his first report card has a 1.8 on it. He openly campaigned for his spot in the lineup, saying how it was good for the team to have him around. The question that should have been begged, but wasn’t was that if Millar was such a good teammate, why did he put himself before John Olerud, Roberto Petagine and Kevin Youkilis? If he was a positive influence on the clubhouse, if he didn’t keep his spot, why would he pout and poison any chemistry that he might otherwise positively effect?

The other prong in the fraud of Millar was his perceived influence on Manny Ramirez. When the end was neigh, Millar reminded people in a not-so-subtle way that he helped keep Manny in check. Without him…I mean, just imagine the distraction that Manny Ramirez would be! Of course, we don’t have to imagine. Despite being a hitter of prolific nature, Manny is good for one team-wide distraction a season. He was in 2003, and 2004. Also in 2005, and 2006. If Millar had that much of an effect on Manny, why was he such a distraction in the Millar era (03-05) and then again post-Millar? Where, exactly, was Kevin Millar’s influence on the will of Manny Ramirez?

The rest of the article talks about things like how there are no more Idiots, and how Millar thinks the 2004 crew should have been brought back for 2005 (even though the only significant changes to the roster were Cabrera and Pedro)…all the sorts of canned nonsense that people like Bill Simmons eats up. Millar himself will always be a polarizing figure in Red Sox history, at least until the memories of him doing Born in the USA wane. The ironic thing is that his actual contributions to the team (including drawing the walk that lead to the Steal) will probably always be underrated in the shadow of his own intangibled propaganda.

Mike Fish has a pretty good article on steroids in the Dominican Republic for espn.com.  If you aren’t completely sick of hearing about the issue it’s a good read.

I have a few quips with his reasoning:

·        The percentages given on use don’t say anything about the number of Dominican players in baseball.  I’m sure it’s not 58%, but I need a frame of reference for those stats to be meaningful.

·        A reason for the higher positive test rate that is alluded to, but not stated, is that young players from poor countries are using street steroids that are behind the testing technology.  Wealthier young players from other countries can afford the newest and least detectable drugs.

·        Despite the stringent penalties, there is more money being pumped into the manufacture of steroids by the major league users.  Testing technology is fighting a losing battle.

·        The damage to a player’s honor and reputation is the most effective penalty.

·        Jose Guillen sounds like he’s got a new publicist:

“When you’re putting something in your body, you’re not going to tell me you don’t know what you are putting in your body,” said Guillen, a 10-year veteran. “We’re all grown men. We’re over 18 years old. I think everybody that gets caught has got to take full responsibility for what they are doing. There is no reason to be complaining and pointing fingers, saying this guy gave me this and that. You know it was a steroid on your own. So explain yourself.”

·        Due to the pervasive use among young players, the problem is going to get worse before it gets better.

The mediots were out in full force today, the day after the Major League trade deadline. The commentary was all over the map as talking heads fought on with their respective agendas, proffered misguided analyses that shouldn’t have snuck past even the most sports-ignorant copy editor, and even insulted their respective audiences. There was one common denominator, however. Activity is good. If you were out there, wheeling and dealing, you were making progress. If you determined prices were too high or that any upgrades that were there for the taking were only marginally incremental ones, you let your city, your region, your fans, your mom, your religious deity of choice and everyone that attended your high school graduation party, down.

We’ll kick off our three-city tour on the West Coast with our old pal, Bill Plaschke. Bill combines a special mix of axe-to-grind bluster with dimwitted foolishness. He famously and pathetically had it out for former Dodgers’ GM Paul DePodesta, and I can only guess because Ned Colletti has a mustache, a scouting background and did not go to Harvard, Plaschke has taken to the new Dodgers’ GM the way Bob Novak takes to Karl Rove. Here’s the money passage…

In the final breaths before baseball’s trading deadline Monday, with his team’s fans huddled in front of an empty hearth and dreading the onset of winter, Colletti burst through the door with arms full and smile wide.

In his one hand, the smartest available pitcher, Greg Maddux.

In his other hand, the best available infielder, Julio Lugo.

In his wallet, every top Dodgers prospect remained.

In baseball parlance, a two-run walk-off homer.

“I don’t think we’re that far away,” Colletti said. “This should give everybody a lift.”

A lift in attitude, from the clubhouse kids to the top-level ushers, everyone realizing this new Dodgers administration will refuse to give up on a season.

A lift in ability, with holes plugged in the rotation, infield and batting order.

And a huge lift over the Angels, who once again ignored their fans and abandoned their players and failed to add the hitter that could have taken them to the World Series.

The Dodgers traded for Greg Maddux, who, since he sucks, is “smart” according to Plaschke. I know a lot of smart people and none of them should be taking a rotation turn for the Dodgers, ok. Lugo, a very good player mind you, now enters the middle infield mix with LA alongside Jeff Kent and Rafael Furcal. They get Lugo for two months and for the privilege, part with a promising 21 year-old hanging in there at AAA-ball.

Oh and you can never under-estimate the importance of the “clubhouse kids” and “top-level ushers” feeling good about the team’s hopes. Funny, but I bet Josh Byrnes, Kevin Towers (and DePo for that matter), Dan O’Dowd and Brian Sabean are feeling pretty good about the Dodgers today, too.

Before we get back to Boston, we’ll stop off in Chicago with Phil Rogers. Phil’s a tough one to pick on because he is not the jerk that Plaschke is but boy does he have a tough time understanding some fundamental aspects of baseball. He doesn’t have much of an agenda, or not a clear one to a non-everyday reader, but you wonder how he pulls down his gig as a purported baseball expert. From his piece today…

It’s also hard to believe that the Los Angeles Dodgers would trade 26-year-old shortstop Cesar Izturis, a 2005 All-Star, to have Maddux for the stretch run. Credit both Maddux’s stature and the deal-making skills of Jim Hendry for bringing the Cubs the best return of any of baseball’s sellers at the deadline for waiver-free trades.

Cesar Izturis is a career .260/.295/.339 hitter, and exactly the sort of player that has played such an instrumental role for the sucky Cubs teams of the last couple of seasons. He’s basically a combination of Jose Macias, Tony Womack and Neifi Perez. The Cubs need Cesar Izturis like they need a right handed power pitcher with arm troubles.

Finally, we check in on Tony Mazz, who pretty shamelessly was fishing for some WEEI appearances with today’s column.

Let’s be candid here for a moment. Since the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series, all of New England has gone as soft as a sneaker full of Barbasol. Red Sox fans have grown alarmingly complacent, accepting most everything the club does with glazed eyes and a stupid smile. Yes, Theo. Of course, Mr. Henry. Certainly, Mr. Lucchino. Some of us are starting to wonder if anyone will ever awaken from the trance.

Somewhere along the line, the Atlanta Braves became the model franchise for major league baseball, an amusing development for one simple reason. The Braves don’t win championships. Atlanta has qualified for the playoffs for an amazing 14 years running, but its only World Series title came in a strike-shortened 1995 season that also marked the Red Sox’ last division title.

So is that the goal now? To become the Bruins of baseball and hang banners from the roof boxes that boast of being a playoff team?

So Mazz thinks his readers have gone soft. Sox fans, fat and asleep at the switch coming off of their long-awaited World Series, have sat idly while their Red Sox have stumbled their way to a 158-111 (including post-season) mark since the end of the 2004 season. Where’s the outrage, Mazz wonders.

Listen, I realize sometimes I am overly optimistic but I am no Sox apologist. There have been plenty of Red Sox roster-management items over the last couple of seasons that have upset me more than they should have – Roberto Petagine, Kevin Youkilis and Hee-Seop Choi (stupidly) – come to mind. That said, what the hell is wrong with a .587 win % since 2004? And were it not for one Tony Graffanino fielding gaffe and a dramatic relief performance by El Duque, maybe it would have been the Red Sox celebrating at Minute Maid Park and not the Pale Hose last October. By the same token, how easily could the Yankees have beaten the Sox in 2004?

The point is that his Bruins analogy doesn’t really apply in baseball. In my lifetime, I have seen the 85-win 1987 Twins win a title and the 116-win 2001 Mariners fall in the playoffs. There is no voodoo playoff baseball formula. You try and field the best team you can, blend win-now and prudent long term approaches, and give it the best possible go.

__________________

As I mentioned at the outset, one tie binds these articles and that is that activity alone, in and of itself, is good. Well we will see where the Angels and Red Sox, two teams panned in these articles, end up in relation to the Cubs and Dodgers, two teams praised – both in the short and long term.

Stay tuned.

A great day all around at the Fens. Josh Beckett twirls his best start of the year and Terry Francona mentions in passing that Theo Epstein and the Red Sox brass had extended Beckett for another three guaranteed years the evening before. I have voiced my frustrations with Beckett and certainly do not hold as gospel truth that “Beckett’s best days are ahead of him” as Theo Epstein contends. They very well may, but we have seen enough of the batting practice version of Beckett to know that he needs to sharpen both his command and mental approach if he is going to ever fulfill his abilities. That all said, when you take out his two worst starts this season you are looking at a pitcher with a 3.83 ERA and impressive strikeout figures and in a market where A.J. Burnett can pull down a guaranteed $55 million and Kevin Millwood $60 million, what is not to absolutely adore about a deal that promises, at the very most, $42 million to Beckett over the next four years?

________________

Something I always get a kick out of is when writers tend to pass off a front-office’s philosophies in over-simplified terms. For instance, a statistically oriented team slavishly looks for players with a good on-base percentage - that’s a good one. Nevermind that guys like Alex Gonzalez, Shea Hillenbrand, Jay Payton, Chris Singleton and Pokey Reese and a slew of others lacking impressive on-base figures have all played prominent roles for teams purported to operate with a statistical bent over the last few years - once the mainstream takes hold of an idea, there is no stopping the disemination of misinformation. The truth of course is that these teams try and determine some sort of net productivity factoring on-base and slugging, speed, defensive capabilities and personality to try and help them determine how many wins a given player will add (or subtract) from the bottom line.

Another such misconception is that the Red Sox are blindly devoted to their prospects. In an otherwise solid piece, Tony Mazz of the Herald offers this bit up:

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: If you think Epstein is going to make a major deal in the next two weeks, you haven’t the slightest clue. For the last few years, Red Sox officials have sounded like overzealous parents when talking about their kids. Now the boys are about to become men and the Sox are not about to cut bait.

Maybe Tony forgot about Anibal Sanchez (3.41 ERA in four Big League starts) and Hanley Ramirez (4th among NL shortstops in OPS)? Or Freddy Sanchez (leading the NL in batting average)? I am not suggesting that any of these deals were necessarily bad at the time but what these names do show is that the Red Sox are in no way afraid to pull the trigger on a deal involving talented prospects if they think it will improve their club. Maybe the Red Sox will not make a mjaor deal - although now I am almost rooting for one just so Mazz will (again) look stupid. But it won’t be because they are afraid to part ways with Craig Hansen or Manny Delcarmen or Abe Alvarez or David Murphy. It will be because they do not perceive that they will be making a move in the best interests of the Boston Red Sox.

I have no delusions of grandeur with respect to our little site here. We have a tidy little following, one that will allow us to post our 100,000th unique visitor in the next week or so, but nothing too big. That said, we have been getting enough traffic of late so that it would not be out of the realm of possibility that some professionals lay eyes on our work. With that said, here is the beginning of Gerry Callahan’s column in today’s Boston Herald suggesting that - get this - David Ortiz should bunt every time other teams put a shift on.

He could, in theory, hit 1.000, slug 1.000 and get on base 100 percent of the time.

Here’s what I had to say yesterday…

I am confident that he can execute the play, like I said before, 80% of the time. So on plays where the shift is on, David Ortiz can hit at a .800/.800/.800 clip, which is better than his typical .290/.400/.600 line to which we have grown accustomed.

Maybe I was thrown by a well-reasoned thought coming from a mainstream baseball columnist that includes slugging and on-base numbers? Maybe the fact that I don’t particularly care for Callahan’s work is clouding my judgment? Whatever it is, I wrote about the very same topic yesterday and touched on the very same points. Well, except for the gushy David Ortiz is the awesomest teammate stuff.

I won’t go any further than that. Just interesting, I guess.

Dan Shaughnessy opens today’s column with this…

He’s an important piece. The Red Sox aren’t going anywhere without Curt Schilling.

Not to discount what Schill has the potential to contribute, but if the Sox can win 95 games while getting 93 innings of 77 ERA+ pitching out of him like they did in 2005, isn’t it a tad dishonest to be addressing the topic in such absolutes?

If illogical, cockeyed drivel is your sort of thing then boy do I have the perfect combination for you. Ladies and gentlemen, I present the Curly Haired Boyfriend himself and the immortal once pretty good Jim Rice on Rice’s Hall case.

‘’Why is Ripken going in?” he asked.

When the consecutive-game streak (2,632) is offered, Rice said, ‘’Exactly. But would you start your team with Ripken? Can Ripken bat .345?

‘’OK, now give me Gwynn,” he continued. ‘’Why is he going in?”

Three thousand hits (3,141 to be precise) is a good start.

‘’How many years did he play? [20] Would you start your team with Gwynn? Case closed. Longevity. That’s all it is. Longevity.

Wheeeee!!!

We’ve been tough on Tony Massarotti here over the years and so in fairness to the guy I thought I would point you all to his column today. It’s a solid effort and does a nice job capturing the range of possibilities for the Red Sox this season. It’s nothing earth-shattering - he basically points out that the Red Sox might do well or they might not - but it’s more balanced analytically than anything I have seen Mazz write in a while. No axes to grind and a pretty good grasp of the questions facing the Sox.

Obviously, there is significant potential here. If Josh Beckett stays healthy . . . if Curt Schilling returns to form . . . if Keith Foulke rediscovers himself . . . if Mike Lowell bounces back . . . if Coco Crisp adapts . . . if Kevin Youkilis blossoms . . . the Red Sox will remain a legitimate contender for both a wild card spot and a championship.

And there are more questions beyond those.

Here’s the problem: The more ifs, the worse your chances. In the case of the 2006 Red Sox, some of those ifs are calculated risks, but you get the idea. The good news is that Varitek, Ortiz and Ramirez, in particular, are still centerpieces of the club. But given the amount of turnover on the roster, we need to see how this team fits together — on and off the field.

Baseball’s coming, people. It’s Truck Day.

I generally don’t like picking on such low-hanging fruit but let’s be honest. The Providence Journal’s Jim Donaldson is a first-rate horse’s ass whose disdain for the Red Sox and dimwitted analytical abilities have both been well documented over the years. His latest effort includes a back-of-the-envelope, position-by-position look at the Red Sox lineup changes and how the respective players can expect to fare in comparison to the player that held the position in 2005. It’s painful stuff, and a quintessential example of the shoddy work being trotted out by so many of the mainstream papers. I’ll take it bit by bit.

Instead of Kevin Millar at first base (.272, 9 HR, 50 RBI, .355 on-base percentage, in 134 games), we have Kevin Youkilis (.278, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .400 OBP, in 44 games) and J.T. Snow, recently of the San Francisco Giants, for whom he batted .275, with 4 HR and 40 RBI, in 117 games. His OBP was .343.

Offensively, that’s arguably a wash. And there’s no question, at least when Snow’s on the field, the position will be stronger defensively.

This is how the analysis goes throughout the whole piece. By virtue of parenthetically telling you the player’s batting average and on-base percentage, along with how many home runs, RBI’s and games played a player logged in the prior season alone, Donaldson feels that he is able to perform the sort of statistical analysis that can allow one to draw conclusions. Now, I am no mathematician but there are so many problems with this. First, it’s evident that Donaldson has no clue that players’ performances tend to vary greatly from year to year. For instance, J.T. Snow has a career OPS+ of 106, but has only come within 3 points of that figure once in any given season. So obviously, simply reeling off even relevant numbers for the previous season, much less RBI totals, would not prove to have a helluva lot of predictive value. Second, he clearly hasn’t the foggiest idea about park factors, and this will grow increasingly evident in other examples. And finally, it still ceases to amaze me that writers refuse to use more straightforward and accurate means of noting performance. I wouldn’t dare think Donaldson’s ilk would adopt any sort of Runs Created formula or OPS+ which requires not only a more advanced (and accurate) means of expressing performance quality but they also show, gasp, context. Even on a broadsheet like the ProJo, it’s high time we see at least the occasional BA/OBP/SLG. Anyway, for a reliable comparison, here is how Youks and Snow stack up compared to Millar.

Millar (2005): .272/.355/.399
Youkilis: .268/.400/.417 (ZIPS), .256/.374/.429 (PECOTA)
Snow: .267/.346/.378 (ZIPS), .267/.340/.418 (PECOTA

Donaldson goes on…

New second baseman Mark Loretta hit .280 in 105 games last season for San Diego, with 3 HR, 38 RBI, a .360 OBP, and 8 steals in 12 attempts in 105 games. Tony Graffanino, who took over from Mark Bellhorn last year in Boston, batted .309, with 7 HR, 38 RBI, and an OBP of .366. He had 7 steals in 9 tries. Give the offensive edge to Graffanino, but only slightly.

First of all, Graffanino hit .319 but had a lower on-base. It was .355, not .366. Second, I don’t think that Donaldson has any clue that Petco Park can suppress one’s offensive numbers or that Fenway can enhance them. To simply reel off numbers without mentioning where either player played his home games manifests such a fundamental lack of understanding of the game of baseball that it becomes almost unthinkable to me that he gets to professionally cover the sport.

Graffanino (2005): .319/.355/.457
Loretta: .320/.387/.441 (ZIPS), .292/.360/.423 (PECOTA)

Renteria batted .276 in 153 games, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 70 RBI, and an OBP of .335. He had 9 steals in 13 attempts and, although he struck out 100 times, he walked 55 — a better ratio than Gonzalez’s 31 walks and 81 strikeouts. Gonzalez batted .264 last year, with 30 doubles, 5 homers, 45 RBI, and on OBP of .319 in 130 games. He attempted 8 steals and was caught 3 times.

Clearly, the Red Sox are hoping the runs Gonzalez can save with his glove will make up for his lack of production at the plate.

Another park factors story. Nothing new. Gonzalez was worse than Renteria last year but only slightly so. He looks a lot worse of course because he played home games in spacious Dolphins Stadium, something that is obviously lost on poor Jim.

Renteria (2005): .276/.335/.385
Gonzalez: .275/.326/.451 (ZIPS), .261/.311/.442 (PECOTA)

At third base, there’s no question Boston was better off with Bill Mueller, who hit .295 in 150 games, with 10 HR, 62 RBI, and a .369 OBP, than Mike Lowell, whose .236 average last year was a career-low. Lowell hit just 8 HR in 150 games for Florida, drove in 58 runs, and had an OBP of .298.

And everybody knows that if you put up successive all-star seasons and then your performance falls off the table, there’s no chance that the down year was simply an outlier.

Mueller (2005): .295/.369/.430
Lowell: .283/.356/.489 (ZIPS), .263/.330/.454 (PECOTA)

That brings us to center field, where Coco Crisp will be replacing the charismatic Johnny Damon, who’ll be batting leadoff for the Yankees this season.

Crisp hit .300 last year to Damon’s .316. Crisp had 42 doubles; Damon, 35. Crisp had 16 homers; Damon, 10. Crisp scored 86 runs and drove in 69. Damon scored 117 and had 75 RBI. Crisp played 145 games; Damon, 148. While Crisp stole 15 bases in 21 tries, Damon was 18-for-19.

In 2006, I’d rather have Damon, even though he can’t throw at all…

I am not sure how he arrived at that conclusion but whatever. Here’s how Coco compares based on actual, sophisticated mathematical projections.

Damon (2005): .316/.366/.439
Crisp: .321/.370/.466 (ZIPS) .299/.357/.467 (PECOTA)

So according to the most sophisticated projection systems that are publicly available, the Red Sox have not only not regressed at the positions Donaldson references, but they have actually improved at each. But hey if Donaldson wants to surmise that the Sox offense might take a hit, there’s an argument to be made. Projections are just that – projections – and there is room for human observation going into a given season. But Donaldson has this to say at the outset of the piece…this isn’t an observational column but instead an attempt at statistical analysis.

A statistical comparison — you know that the stat geeks reign supreme at Fenway these days — of the ‘06 Sox to last year’s lineup, on a position-by-position basis, seems to indicate that this year’s team packs less offensive power than the ‘05 bunch.

See, he called it a “statistical comparison,” not me, and even took a potshot in the process. And boy did he ever embarrass himself.

Are things really this bad for the Sox? Am I missing something? Ken Rosenthal, a great reporter for Fox Sports and typically a decent writer, contributes this piece entitled New-Look Red Sox Could Use a Makeover.

It’s a tough piece to slug through as he contradicts himself numerous times. One assumption that he seems to hold self-evident is that although the Sox have retained much of their pitching and bolstered their bullpen, they now have question marks on offense. I couldn’t disagree more. I think this offense is well on its way to another 900 run season. Anyway, here is what the Sox lost for contributors last season with their 2005 numbers in parentheses…

Edgar Renteria (.276/.335/.385)
Johnny Damon (.316/.366/.439)
Second Base: (.254/.333/.396)
Bill Mueller (.295/.369/.430)
Doug Mirabelli (.228/.309/.412)
Kevin Millar (.272/.355/.399)
John Olerud (.289/.344/.451)

Their replacements and their ZIPS projection for 2006:

SS: Alex Gonzalez (.253/.305/.406, in Florida mind you), Alex Cora (.269/.334/.368), Dustin Pedroia (.275/.343/.403)
CF: Coco Crisp (.303/.353/.448 in Cleveland)
2B: Mark Loretta (.320/.387/.441)
3B: Mike Lowell (.283/.356/.489)
Back-up C: Josh Bard (.260/.323/.393)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (.268/.400/.417), JT Snow (.267/.346/.378…ugh)

I don’t know. You net out the upgrades, clear defensive improvements and the potential bounce-back seasons, even while factoring in some age regression, and I think this team looks improved.

If you want to know about Boston Sports Media, and in particular their coverage of the Red Sox, take some headache medicine and read through some of the Boston papers over the last four or five days. The best example I have seen to date that shows the negativity, narrow-mindedness and just general obtuseness that Boston writers have applied to the Johnny Damon departure was a piece the Globe ran yesterday called “Quick Shots”. A number of the Globe’s writers contributed paragraphs regarding how badly Damon’s loss will hurt the Sox. We get this nugget from Nick Cafardo…

The Sox will also miss Damon’s clubhouse presence. For four seasons, it was Damon’s clubhouse. He was also the go-to guy for the media, commenting on easy and tough questions in good times and bad. He changed the culture in the Sox’ clubhouse for the better. How do they replace him? Anything short of Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones, and you don’t.

…And this from former talent Bob Ryan…

Casey Stengel explained why his first pick for the expansion 1962 Mets was catcher Hobie Landrith: ‘’If you have no catcher, there will be a lot of passed balls.” If the Red Sox were to play this afternoon, there would be a lot of base hits to center field for the same reason. Fact is, they ain’t got none. Ain’t got no (legitimate) leadoff hitter, either. For these and other reasons Johnny Damon was a must keep.

You get the drift. Now, I don’t want people to get the feeling that I don’t think Johnny Damon’s loss will hurt the Sox. It will. But as a baseball team, all you need to be is good in the aggregate. Whether that is with a fantastic centerfielder and a crummy second baseman like the 2005 Red Sox, or vice versa as it appears is possible for the 2006 Sox, it doesn’t much matter. There are a bunch of different ways to assemble a good baseball team. You think pitiching wins? Ask the 2003 Dodgers if pitching alone gets it done. You think you need a lead-off man? 2005’s World Series participants featured two of the very worst lead-off men in baseball in Scott Podsednik and Willy Taveras. How about a centerfielder? Is it imperative to have a top-notch centerfielder in order to be competitive? Of course not. Again, just look at Taveras or Bernie Williams, who both logged significant time in centerfield for playoff teams or conversely, David DeJesus of the Kansas City Royals, who had a very nice season for an abominable Royals team in 2005.

The point is obvious to anybody capable of putting together a rational thought but completely lost upon professionals compensated to understand these sorts of things. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and all you need to do is put together a 25-man roster that, in the aggregate, will allow you to stay competitive. Nothing that has taken place this off-season suggests that the Red Sox do not understand this.

Yes I am in California with my future in-laws. Yes I should probably be wrapping some Christmans gifts or even beginning the wedding planning process but you know what? The madness needs to end. Writers, both local and national, have declared the Red Sox a mess in some form or another. The tipping point for these types came Tuesday night when the Red Sox opted not to grant Johnny Damon the same contract Pedro Martinez received last off-season.

Here’s Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports in an article entitled Red Sox’s 2006 season is crumbling:

Time for a new curse. Time to organize a search party for former GM Theo Epstein. Time to panic, as only New England can.

How about Bob Klapisch on espn.com?

Without Damon in 2005, the Bombers finished second to Boston in runs, batting average and on-base percentage. That gap will almost certainly be closed in 2006, unless the Sox can salvage a disastrous offseason.

And finally, everybody’s favorite no-talent hack, the Curly Haired Boyfriend himself.

This signing will polarize the Nation. Most fans will paint the current Sox bosses as buffoons and there’s good evidence to support the charge.

Imagine that, sportswriters pressing the panic button because the Sox lost some guys they had heard of? Well let’s take a step back here, analyze what the Sox have and what they lost and really try and determine if it is time to panic over 2006 yet. I don’t think anybody would argue that with Schilling and Foulke coming back, Beckett and Papelbon in the mix and Guillermo Mota, Rudy Seanez and a more polished Craig Hansen in the bulpen that the Sox will be able to shave a good amount of runs off of that brutal total of 805 that they allowed in 2005. But let’s look at the offense, position by position, to compare last year’s club with what might be expected this season based on Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projection method. I will list what the Red Sox got from that particular position in 2005, folowed by projections for likely candidate(s) to fill the position in 2006.

Catcher
2005 Sox: .262/.346/.458
Jason Varitek: .274/.361/.473
Kelly Shoppach: .233/.312/.436 (Doug Mirabelli had a .673 OPS last year)

First Base
2005 Sox: .279/.358/.436
Kevin Youkilis: .268/.400/.417
Roberto Petagine (fingers crossed): .270/.374/.492

Second Base
2005 Sox: .254/.333/.396
Mark Loretta: .320/.387/.441

Third Base
2005 Sox: .295/.372/.431
Mike Lowell: .283/.356/.489
Andy Marte: .255/.350/.459

Shortstop
2005 Sox: .272/.331/.377
Tony Graffanino: .287/.349/.394
Alex Cora: .269/.334/.368

Left Field
2005 Sox: .286/.377/.566
Manny Ramirez: .292/.389/.563

Centerfield
2005 Sox: .317/.367/.446
Jeremy Reed: .266/.340/.379
Coco Crisp: .303/.353/.448
Adam Stern: .260/.320/.392
David Murphy: .246/.298/.361

Rightfield
2005 Sox: .274/.341/.431
Trot Nixon: .294/.381/.499
Adam Hyzdu: .242/.355/.457 (There’s your 4th OF, front office. All he needs is someone to hand him 200 AB’s and he’ll be fine)

Designated Hitter
2005 Sox: .295/.396/.595
David Ortiz: .298/.392/.595

So there you have it. Barring the acquisition of Cleveland’s Coco Crisp, the Sox do appear as though they are in for a precipitous decline in centerfield. But isn’t that really it? Catcher looks to be about the same, 1st Base should see a small improvement and so should right field with some bounce-back from Trot. And besides, Mark Loretta’s presence alone may provide more than enough upgrade to negate Damon’s absence. This offense will still pound the ball and with improvement all but a guarantee on the pitching side of things, I think the Sox are still in very good shape heading into 2006.

Edit: Adam Hyzdu signed a minor league deal with the Rangers a few weeks back. Two thoughts on that; one, I am a moron for not picking up on it. Two, given the projection, the Sox may have been well-served to hang onto the guy.

Just a quick note: the Sox managed to get Guillermo Mota added to the Beckett deal, which is a good thing just in the “let’s have another solid arm for the pen” way. I don’t expect Mota to regain the amazing numbers he put up in ‘03 or even the good numbers he put up in ‘04. He’s more likely to just be an league average arm, but that’s better than a bunch of the arms the Sox ran through the pen last year, so that’s ok with me.

With each bit of good news, comes a bit of bad news. Chris Snow and Gordon Edes, the Globe’s two main Sox writers, had managed to stay above the “Sox-Globe improprieties” mess. They have both proven to be solid, talented writers on occasion, and certainly competent the rest of the time.

But when you see trade “analysis” like in today’s Globe, you certainly wonder if it is simply an impossibility at the Globe to offer a critical eye to anything the Sox do these days.

The bit that rubbed me wrong?

And so, the deal, after this major permutation, reads like this: Beckett (the new ace of the Sox staff), Lowell (the new starting third baseman, and a Gold Glove winner in 2005), and Mota (one of baseball’s premier setup men in 2003 and ‘04) for Double A shortstop Hanley Ram�rez, Double A righthander Anibal Sanchez, and Single A righthanders Jesus Delgado and Garcia.

Beckett’s very good, and I like him an awful lot. That being said, he’s never in his career had numbers good enough to be considered an “ace.” He could certainly, and likely will, continue to develop a bit, but if he’s the ace of the staff, the Sox will have one of the worst #1 starters amongst the baseball elites.

The kicker, of course, is Lowell. Right now, he shouldn’t be penciled in for a roster spot, let alone to be the starting third baseman. This is a guy who hit like a crippled Pokey Reese last year. Worse than Bellhorn, or Renteria, or Millar, or anybody the Sox ran out there basically. A sub-.300 OBP, a sub-.370 SLG, and he’s our starting 3B? There’s a whole lot of evidence that he’s done, cooked, busted. And the Globe is trying to spin it like the Sox acquired Scott Rolen. That’s just downright dishonest.

This is an ok trade for the Sox. It’s not a steal. We gave up 2 very highly touted prospects, and 2 high ceiling prospects, for a really good pitcher who may never be great and may never be completely healthy; an aging, declining, possibly cooked, yet still expensive 3B; and a setup guy who had 2 good years in a really good pitching environment, and a whole lot of mediocre years.

It’s a win now move, but this isn’t a steal, it’s not a definite “win,” and it’s not even a no-brainer. Quite frankly, I wonder if this is a move that Theo wouldn’t have stayed away from, as it thins out the farm system a good deal and adds in a couple of players (Mota, Lowell) who’ll probably not be better than the younger counterparts we already have (Youkilis, Delcarmen/Hansen/DiNardo), but “savvy vets” so Terry Francona will feel comfortable using them.

David Ortiz, DH: .300/.397/.604 (161 OPS+)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: .321/.421/.610 (167 OPS+)

From today’s Herald…

Apparently, America is not ready to elect a designated hitter as its Most Valuable Player. We can put Geena Davis in the White House, but we can�t give the MVP to a man who routinely snatches victory from the jaws of defeat.

Alex Rodriguez won the American League MVP award yesterday, but the story here in Boston is that David Ortiz did not. Ortiz did everything a designated hitter possibly could do to win the award, but the voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America continue to treat the DH as if it were VD.

Mr. Massorotti, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.